Friday, July 13, 2012

July 13 2012

Some action in the first 40 min, then long stall and slow climb - no wonder that we got all our winning trades in the morning and nothing but whipsaw in the afternoon. 

Session Time: Fri Jul 13 00:00:00 2012
[08:28] {dolores} hello GM
[08:55] {Threei}  OK... at some point I'll have to stop pretending I an asleep... good morning
[09:09] {jackharry} good morning everyone
[09:10] {Threei}  morning jack
[09:10] {Threei}  picked wrong day for holiday yesterday...
[09:10] {jackharry} good day then?
[09:10] {Threei}  very... stocks were like puppets
[09:11] {jackharry} oh well, it was a public holiday here, didnt want to be the only person in the country working!
[09:15] {Beau} gm all
[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:20] {ese} morning
[09:20] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:21] {ese} jp loss bigger than most 3rd world countrys GDP......these guys just never learn
[09:21] {dolores} if is any consolation jack I had to go out  and missed the aprty as well
[09:22] {dolores} party
[09:23] {Threei}  if they trade, they'll have losses... as long as they lose their money and not taxpayer's, who cares
[09:23] {dolores} what was the high yesterday on FCX?
[09:23] {Threei}  32.76
[09:24] {dolores} thanks  market expecting more stimulus from china
[09:24] {dolores} who knows it can pop up today
[09:24] {scottie} gm
[09:25] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:25] {dolores} copper 1.5 % up today
[09:27] {Will49} gm
[09:27] {dptl} gm
[09:27] {Threei}  will, dp :)
[09:27] {Threei}  nemo is slacking again
[09:28] {Threei}  or dropped by to Myrtyl beach to drink with dino
[09:29] {Threei}  FCX is a long candidate after morning shake-ups... JPM too
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .10 break
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  35 
[09:33] {Threei}  hl
[09:34] {Threei}  if loses 35, let's wait for a deeper pullback
[09:35] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:35] {dolores} out 9 cents
[09:36] {dolores} thxs
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .85 break hl
[09:36] {dolores} too soon
[09:36] {Threei}  JPM 1:1
[09:36] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:37] {scottie} jpm .21 +.10 ty
[09:37] {Threei}  yw
[09:37] {jackharry} out at .33, thanks
[09:37] {Threei}  gj'
[09:37] {dolores} nice call JPM
[09:37] {Threei}  FCX stop .78
[09:38] {Threei}  half out
[09:38] {Threei}  stalled a bit, let's protect prodit
[09:38] {Threei}  stop to .84
[09:39] {Threei}  out
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:40] {Threei}  aww, late
[09:40] {ese} whats goin on with the S&P spyders etc....haven't seen a climb like that for a bit
[09:41] {Threei}  let's see if gives second chance entry
[09:41] {thomcbell} jpm powerful 
[09:41] {dolores} TPX nice pullback
[09:41] {dolores}  up to 26 and down
[09:42] {Threei}  OK, SLW
[09:42] {Threei}  in, stop above .90
[09:43] {Threei}  actually, wrong... above .85
[09:43] {Threei}  no need to give it too much room
[09:43] {Threei}  no go in either case
[09:44] {Threei}  should've known better, it reached 1:1 after initial break
[09:45] {dolores} wow FCX
[09:45] {dolores} nice pop
[09:46] {Threei}  and don't even look at JPM
[09:46] {Threei}  I thought I was a bit too generous with .30 target after a buck+ gap and run
[09:47] {dolores} copper 2% up
[09:48] {Threei}  WFC, watching for double top
[09:50] {Threei}  also HPQ on a radar as short candidate
[09:50] {dolores} AZO all thye way to 385 and down same as yesterday
[09:51] {Threei}  dolores... seriously, leave that monster alone
[09:51] {Threei}  you can't control risk on that stock
[09:51] {scottie} BP l. .80 ?
[09:52] {Threei}  with .74 stop... sure
[09:52] {dolores} yes I won't touch it
[09:53] {scottie} in .81
[09:54] {Threei}  confidence numbers at 9:55
[09:55] {Threei}  not good
[09:55] {Threei}  72 v 73.5E
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .90 break
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .95 
[09:55] {Threei}  aggressive entry fir .85 trigger
[09:56] {Threei}  market ignores numbers
[09:57] {dolores} agressive .85 means add?
[09:57] {Threei}  not in this case
[09:57] {dolores} ok
[09:57] {Threei}
[09:59] {dolores} HPQ we are in?
[09:59] {dolores} it broke slightly
[09:59] {Threei}  yes
[10:00] {Threei}  no go
[10:00] {dolores} out
[10:01] {ese} confidence numbers dn slightly......72 vs 73.5 biggie
[10:02] {Threei}  you still need to take me off ignore ese
[10:02] {ese} lol
[10:02] {ese} i'm blind.......was loking for your post but missed it
[10:02] {ese} looking
[10:03] {Threei}  [09:54] {Threei} confidence numbers at 9:55
[10:03] {Threei}  [09:55] {Threei} not good
[10:03] {Threei}  [09:55] {Threei} 72 v 73.5E
[10:04] {Threei}  BP works nicely even though slow
[10:04] {nemo} why market so happy?
[10:04] {ese} mrkts going up though.........must be dinos golf game must be inspiring confidence in the country
[10:04] {scottie} chickened out at .76
[10:04] {Threei}  aww... come on... don't trade on noise
[10:05] {scottie} you're right I shouldn't and I'll pay for this
[10:06] {nemo} wow this is imppressive
[10:07] {dolores} HPQ not following the market
[10:07] {dolores} if market slows it will break down?
[10:07] {Threei}  it really should
[10:08] {Threei}  new 52 week low on a day of such strength
[10:08] {Threei}  scottie, look at BP one last time
[10:08] {dolores} TVIX at lows
[10:08] {scottie} no
[10:08] {Threei}  just to make sure that pain registers well, and makes the lesson well learned :)
[10:09] {scottie} trying to build a strategy on long time cross of resistance
[10:09] {scottie} not enough confidence yet
[10:10] {scottie} cross of support as well
[10:11] {Threei}  allow me to throw in a quote from one great trading manuscript
[10:12] {scottie} Intelliscan gave me CTL at 10:05  but I looked at it too late
[10:12] {Threei}  Trading activity is aimed at making money. However, in a paradoxical way, a trader performs much better when he is not focused on making money. Concentrating on the monetary aspect of his action creates fear � a paralyzing and debilitating state of mind where a trader�s actions are governed by the desire to protect his profit and avoid a loss. Such motives, seemingly correct, in reality are harmful as they encourage a trader to act based on his monetary circumstances and not on what the market is telling him.
[10:12] {Threei}  As a result, he is likely to take a small profit out of fear of letting it evaporate � even though the market never generated a sell signal. Similarly, he is likely to take a loss or sell his position breakeven long before the market signaled that a trade is not going to work. Such behavior ruins the odds upon which the trading system is built. Instead of acting on valid and true signals from the market, the trader acts on noise � small accidental movements that have no meaning.
[10:12] {Threei}  Sometimes a simple action such as removing the profit/loss column from one�s screen (�not regard(ing) that self as self�) helps disassociate a trader from his monetary results and allows him to focus on the right thing, the real subject of his work � the market movements. It breaks the mental link between his action and money, helping alleviate the fear and remove the influence of emotions.
[10:13] {dolores} thats very good 
[10:13] {Will49} Describes me to a tee
[10:14] {Threei}  A Taoist Trader, page 70
[10:14] {Threei}  if I die tomorrow, that'll be a work I will be the most proud of, and the one I'll show to that guy with keys
[10:14] {Threei}  whatshisname
[10:15] {Will49} Gabriel?
[10:15] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:15] {dolores} PETER
[10:15] {Will49} he mans the golden they say
[10:15] {Threei}  right :)
[10:16] {dolores} yes Peter
[10:16] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .35 break hl
[10:16] {Threei}  If holds  .45  scalpers, .50 day traders
[10:17] {dolores} HPQ you were on the right track
[10:18] {Threei}  still looking for reliable entry on it
[10:18] {Threei}  it has no support anywhere even close
[10:18] {dolores} WFC at highs
[10:19] {Threei}  I scrolled back to 2008, HPQ hasn't been this low
[10:21] {dolores} JPM close to trigger
[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .85 break
[10:21] {Threei}  If holds  .95 
[10:23] {Threei}  show us freefall HPQ
[10:24] {Threei}  sir Newton style
[10:24] {Threei}  stop .46 on JPM for all
[10:25] {nemo} wlp interesting spot
[10:25] {Threei}  JPM 1:1
[10:26] {Threei}  HPQ stop to .91
[10:26] {nemo} shorting below .80
[10:26] {nemo} stop is looking like .91
[10:27] {scottie} +.10 JPM ty
[10:28] {Threei}  yw
[10:31] {nemo} I'm scratching it indexes look long
[10:32] {nemo} when is a scratch trade a winning trade...
[10:33] {nemo} deck heavy
[10:38] {Threei}  ese, look dcc please
[10:45] {dolores} WFC short with stop at high?
[10:45] {nemo} CAT
[10:45] {Threei}  WFC short trigger would be .60 break
[10:46] {dolores} ok
[10:46] {Threei}  but if goes above .70, that's off
[10:46] {dolores} ok
[10:46] {scottie} could wfc be long at .70
[10:47] {Threei}  now, if we get really lucky, WFC goes above .70, stays under ,75, market reverses down so we could short .70 break with a very tight stop
[10:47] {Threei}  .75 resistance is too close, scottie
[10:47] {scottie} ok
[10:47] {nemo} thinking l cat .15 break
[10:48] {nemo} stop under .05
[10:48] {nemo} small btw
[10:48] {dolores} WFC at HOD in 5 yeras?
[10:48] {dolores} years?
[10:51] {Threei}  not really
[10:51] {Threei}  but quite high
[10:52] {nemo} oh well
[10:52] {dolores} WFC went to 33.78
[10:52] {dolores} invalidated?
[10:53] {Threei}  for now, yes
[10:53] {dolores} ok thxs
[10:54] {Threei}  may consolidate a bit for a new setup
[10:56] {ese} L anf .73
[10:59] {Threei} Short Setup: WFC  .70 break hl
[11:00] {scottie} in .69
[11:01] {Threei}  .81 stop
[11:01] {dolores} stop?
[11:01] {dolores} ok
[11:08] {Threei}  things slowed down greatly
[11:08] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .76
[11:09] {Threei}  moves become more random
[11:09] {Threei}  out
[11:21] {Threei}  market is glued to 135.10 - .20
[11:26] {Threei}  did I hear that right? O says his mistake was not communicating with people and not telling the story? this is from president who just wouldn't disappear from TV screens even when TV was off?
[11:30] {Threei}  frikin HPQ
[11:36] {_beaty} feels like things could slowly grind north from here
[11:36] {Threei}  very much so
[11:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TGT  .40 break
[11:41] {Threei}  hl
[11:41] {Threei}  stop .34
[11:41] {Threei}  target .60 or so
[11:46] {Threei}  you can get engaged, married and divorced, and today's trades will still be on
[11:47] {Will49} I didn't sign up for that:)
[11:48] {Threei}  none of us did... but we don't deal the cards, we merely play them :)
[11:48] {Threei}  OK. WMT pushing the highs, TGT should follow now
[11:48] {Threei}  let's try to partial near .50
[11:48] {Will49} meant i didn't sign up to get engaged etc
[11:49] {Threei}  I know... but it's not a requirement really...
[11:50] {Threei}  sigh
[11:51] {Threei}  hate this slow climb... so not our environment
[11:53] {Will49} would it be prudent to stay on sidelines in these conditions?
[11:53] {Threei}  most of the time, yes
[11:53] {Threei}  buying pullbacks is about the only thing one can try,
[11:54] {Threei}  breakouts rinse you and shorts don't work
[11:54] {Threei}  but even pullback entries are far from easy
[11:54] {Will49} no kidding
[11:56] {Threei}  LXK...
[11:56] {Threei}  what a decimation
[12:02] {thomcbell} jpm short setup vad
[12:03] {Threei}  .85?
[12:08] {nemo} the slow grind up...Vad's favorite
[12:10] {Threei}  yup, right up there with flossing with barbwire and washing it up with acid
[12:10] {nemo} or getting the lint out of your....with a diamond drill bit
[12:11] {dolores} WFC trying for the third time to break highs
[12:11] {nemo} just looked at cat after my stop.  Dropped and touched VWAP and came right back up
[12:11] {nemo} breakout time
[12:11] {dolores} if it doesnt will it finally give way?
[12:12] {Threei}  is it a good sign for the economy when WMT makes new highs?
[12:12] {nemo} wpp IWM 80.50 for spy 136.10 or so, that wouldn't surprise me
[12:12] {thomcbell} invalidated 
[12:12] {thomcbell} "obviously"
[12:12] {Threei}  :)
[12:30] {ese} out half anf.35.00 +.25
[12:30] {Threei}  wtg
[12:31] {ese} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz stop to break even .75 for balancezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[12:31] {ese} what can I say vad.............I love the way you make a living
[12:32] {ese} am enjoying this being more active in the summer now that schools out also
[12:47] {Threei}  I just wish for more activity... but Friday aftrenoon in the middle of the summer is often like this
[12:47] {nemo} wow, haven't seen spy this dead in a while, looking for higher though
[13:01] {ese} me also
[13:02] {ese} still can't figure what that early morning run was about though
[13:03] {Threei}  ?? ??? ????????? ???
[13:03] {Threei}  oops
[13:03] {Threei}  it was Seinfield run
[13:03] {Threei}  as in, run about nothing
[13:09] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart: Business contacts becoming more cautious, it could be possible that more policy decisions could come soon- Additional QE is not a miracle cure, there should be modest expectations for further Fed actions - Comments that assuming the economy continues as is, current policy forecasts would not be accurate - Concerned existing problems in unemployment may become structural
[13:09] {Threei}  they are not sturctural still?
[13:10] {Threei}  let's see... one of the biggest companies in USA, Amazon, almost fully automated such low level work as actual shimpent of the merchandize
[13:11] {Threei}  a few more biggies, like Google and Facebook, are in fact run on such miniscule human power, it's unheard of in human history
[13:13] {Threei}  and whatever's left of actual hands-on jobs is impossible to do in US, with zillion of reasons making labot too expensive here and too cheap in China etc
[13:13] {Threei}  if this is still not structural, I am not looking forward to find out what's ahead
[13:14] {nemo} this might be the stop flush before going higher
[13:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .85 break
[13:29] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[13:31] {dolores} in TZA
[13:32] {dptl} see ya monday all
[13:32] {Threei}  have a good weekend dp
[13:33] {dolores} bye dpti 
[13:34] {Threei}  my guess is, dp couldn't handle blazing speed of today's trading
[13:34] {Threei}  blisters on the skin...
[13:35] {Threei}  see? merely 5 min, and we already got 4 cents
[13:35] {Threei}  we might get 1:1 this millenia
[13:40] {Threei}  too optimistic eh?
[13:42] {dolores} stop .79?
[13:43] {Threei}  yeah
[13:48] {dolores} I would love to know on what is market up and holding
[13:48] {dolores} magic
[13:49] {Threei}  fairy dust
[13:49] {nemo} relationships, look at the $
[13:49] {nemo} also technical support and resistance
[13:49] {Threei}  fumes of wishful thinking
[13:49] {dolores} earnings so far have not  beem nothing great
[13:49] {nemo} we bottomed yesterday at the 5o SMA on the IWM, which is the "Risk On" measure
[13:49] {dolores} except JPM that everyone expected worsw
[13:50] {nemo} There was nothing special about the SPY levels
[13:50] {Will49} time to trott out the "summertime" excuse
[13:50] {nemo} We bounced at the Risk On support, it's been leading the way ever since
[13:51] {Threei}  and per Will's special order:
[13:52] {dolores} going to be saved by one cent?
[13:52] {Will49} Love it
[13:53] {Threei}  nope... out
[13:54] {Threei}  even 5 cents was too much to ask for apparently... 4 cents was it
[13:58] {Threei} Short Setup: HOG  .10 break
[13:58] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[14:09] {Threei}  half out
[14:09] {Threei}  moves too often stop shy a cent or two from target, let's incorporate that
[14:09] {Threei}  stop to .11
[14:09] {Threei}  and let's see if we get 44 break
[14:10] {_beaty} chart looks ripe for a bigger breakdown
[14:10] {Threei}  yes
[14:10] {_beaty} .90 or .80 at least
[14:10] {Threei}  nice little H&S earlier, which attracted my attention in a first place
[14:16] {nemo} well, if you're gonna get some selling should show up soon
[14:17] {Threei}  scalpers win
[14:18] {nemo} resistance at .15
[14:21] {dolores} short again if it comes to .09?
[14:22] {nemo} or here 
[14:22] {dolores} or let it be
[14:22] {dolores} this market is unreadable now
[14:22] {nemo} well, you're playing whether there will be profit taking going into the weekend
[14:22] {Will49} so it's a crap shoot
[14:23] {nemo} probability
[14:23] {dolores} ell it held
[14:23] {nemo} what is the likelihood traders want to go long into the weekend
[14:23] {Threei}  I'd look for something else
[14:23] {dolores} if there is sudden move I would play it
[14:23] {dolores} here so wishy washy
[14:23] {Threei}  it lost important support at 44 and didn't follow through
[14:23] {dolores} yes
[14:24] {nemo} but this is also a lower high
[14:26] {dolores} well patience is a virtue
[14:26] {dolores} we still have 90 minutes to go
[14:36] {ese} out anf in full .33 +.58
[14:37] {Threei}  annoyingly good trade
[14:38] {ese} tks.............did a reasessment of the .75 stop.....was looking strong so i pulled it...I have a gut sense that this will almost have $36 in it today......but....sell into strength
[14:39] {nemo} HOG retests the lows
[14:39] {ese} 900shs/900shs........good way to finish off the week.....
[14:39] {ese} see you tomorrow vad.......everyone have a good weekend and we'll cya monday
[14:39] {dolores} now it comes down
[14:40] {nemo} nobody listens to me
[14:40] {Threei}  take care ese
[14:40] {ese} cya
[14:44] {nemo} if it drops .96, next support .86 area, then .72
[14:51] {nemo} dolores, you know candlestick configurations?
[14:53] {nemo} I'm thinking they've got another run higher coming, financials still strong
[14:54] {dolores} not much
[14:54] {dolores} some
[14:55] {dolores} you mean head and shoulders and things like that?
[14:55] {nemo} well, that's a general chart pattern
[14:56] {dolores} highers in the dow have been lower
[14:56] {nemo} When you asked about reentering HOG at 14:21  between 14:19-14:21 HOG had formed an evening star configuration, which is the Bear configuration reverse of the kangaroo tail
[14:56] {nemo} so, you had a bear configuration, a lower high in a progression that had been falling since 12:30 or so
[14:56] {dolores} ok
[14:57] {nemo} just a thought in the probability calculus
[14:58] {dolores} where is the reverse kangaroo tail?
[14:59] {dolores} between which time?
[14:59] {nemo} 14:19-14:21 at least on my charts
[14:59] {nemo} those three candles
[14:59] {nemo} unless you're using bar charts
[15:00] {Threei}  14:20 - 14:22 on mine
[15:00] {nemo} well, you're on the west coast
[15:00] {dolores} okno I have candles 
[15:00] {Threei}  with 14:21 being tail itself
[15:00] {nemo} that's fine
[15:00] {dolores} is like a round tail inverse
[15:01] {nemo} o.k. spy looks like it wants to push for R3 at .76
[15:02] {nemo} dcc dolores
[15:03] {nemo} if spy takes .76 136.05 likely
[15:04] {dolores} dcc?
[15:04] {nemo} are you on mirc or mibbet
[15:04] {dolores} mibbit
[15:05] {nemo} ahhh...don't know for sure, but you might see a little window across the top with my name in it
[15:05] {dolores} like pm?
[15:05] {nemo} yep
[15:05] {dolores} i will open it is not there
[15:06] {dolores} there i am
[15:06] {nemo} there you go
[15:10] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Lockhart: Very comfortable with forecast of a rate hike in late 2014 given slowing economy and recent data; currently on the fence about QE3 and would like to see more data
[15:10] {Threei}  - Q/A- Global outlook changed drastically between April and June meetings. }
[15:10] {Threei}  - Receptivity to QE3 has increased slightly; Still monitoring economic data.
[15:10] {Threei}  - View of slowing economy is broadly shared at the Fed; monetary policy is a 'large, blunt instrument'
[15:10] {Threei}  - New round of easing would likely include MBS. - Long period of low rates will hurt retirees
[15:10] {Threei}  - Want to see whether recent weakness in data is temporary or more permanent
[15:10] {Threei}  - Europe remains the largest concern; Unexpected developments may spark global contagion.
[15:10] {Threei}  unexpected?
[15:10] {Threei}  when EU falls apart, it qill be the most expected unexpected event
[15:12] {Threei}  Federal judge in Alabama sentences Uzbek man to more than 15 years for plotting to kill Obama
[15:12] {Threei}  apparently Uzbekistan has very few of their own problems
[15:15] {dolores} VAd this move convinces you or is a short?
[15:16] {Threei}  sorry, not sure I understand the question
[15:16] {Threei}  you mean market overall? or particular stock?
[15:17] {dolores} market?
[15:17] {Threei}  I don't really have a directional bias
[15:17] {Threei}  this kind of consolidations we had today moe often resolve in breakout
[15:18] {Threei}  but the volume is low and market is fragile
[15:18] {Threei}  it's a pattern of careful c,limb in absence of news
[15:18] {dolores} ok
[15:18] {Threei}  ready to drop in a blink of eye if something negative sounds
[15:20] {Threei}  frikin TGT
[15:22] {dolores} TVIX holding on this market pop
[15:26] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .80 break hl
[15:29] {Threei}  let's change tio .85 break
[15:29] {Threei}  If holds  .95 
[15:30] {nemo} interesting, only the indexes are dropping really
[15:30] {dolores} in
[15:31] {dolores} stop .95?
[15:31] {Threei}  .96
[15:31] {dolores} ok
[15:31] {Threei}  shrug
[15:31] {Threei}  let me out of this swamp
[15:32] {nemo} you caught the index bounce perfectly
[15:35] {dolores} saved CAT even
[15:35] {dolores} had small  amount
[15:36] {nemo} cat is trading with spy
[15:37] {dolores} glad covered
[15:38] {Threei}  yeah, it looked for a few min l,ike we could get a selling into eod
[15:39] {dolores} C 6 % up today
[15:39] {dolores} reports monday before the bell
[15:39] {nemo} yeah, this is bullish...but remember a coupla weeks ago when we changed over the semester, I thought the spy would oscillate around the Pivot Point confluence area, well that's what we're doing
[15:40] {dolores} HOG finally broke 
[15:40] {nemo} in that market up move it never got above old support/new resistance
[15:42] {dolores} CAT breaking highs
[15:45] {nemo} likely big gap up pn Monday
[15:45] {Threei}  HOG bounced too trapping breakdown shorters
[15:45] {Threei}  if you look at intraday chart, you'll see all the action concentrated in first 45 min
[15:46] {Threei}  which, not accidnetally, is when almost all our winning trades occurred
[15:52] {Threei}  ok guys, let's have a good relaxing weekend
[15:52] {Threei}  see you all on Monday for a new week
[15:52] {_beaty} sounds like a plan, enjoy your weekend
[15:52] {Will49} Cheers
[15:52] {Threei}  glad this one is over, it was a bit ona tiresome side
[15:52] {dolores} yes VAD thank you
[15:52] {dolores} have agreat weekend  all
[15:52] {_beaty} you too dolores