Thursday, November 1, 2012

Nov 1 2012

Another slow but profitable day. I expect this slow rhythm to stay with us until after the election day.

 Session Time: Thu Nov 01 00:00:00 2012
[09:00] {dino} gm
01[09:00] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:00] {Les} afternoon
01[09:00] {Threei}  les :)
01[09:00] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 363K V 370KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.263M V 3.250ME- 4-week avg claims: 367.25K v 368.75K w/w - Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 369K to 372K - Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.254M to 3.259M
[09:01] {Les} when day presidential elections?
[09:01] {Les} what
01[09:01] {Threei}  Tue
[09:01] {Les} market open as normal?
[09:02] {nemo} yeah
[09:02] {Les} ty
[09:08] {scottie} good morning
01[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:09] {scottie} will be away for an hour or two, have fun
[09:10] {nemo} could you take Les with you?
[09:11] {scottie} no prob,  hi les, wanna come with me ?
[09:16] {Les} no
[09:18] {Les} nothing personal scottie... auto generated response to questions from Nemo
[09:23] {Will49} Good morning
01[09:23] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:23] {Threei}  wow, out east board guys are still off
01[09:24] {Threei}  our
[09:24] {Will49} Maybe they moved their clocks bacl already
[09:25] {dino} crus, odd
[09:25] {Will49} back
[09:28] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:28] {ese} vad
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break hl
[09:30] {nemo} slw might go BOOM!
[09:30] {dino} crus hl l .00 wide
01[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .05 
[09:31] {ese} figured you might be after crus dino.......was just looking at that
[09:31] {dino} :)
01[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:32] {ese} was thinkng TDC also
[09:33] {nemo} may have about another buck south on crus
[09:34] {nemo} fib confluence at the bottom of the gap
01[09:34] {Threei}  1:2, out
01[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[09:36] {Les} big divergence GDX, SLW.
01[09:39] {Threei}  change to .65 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  stop under .55
01[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .50 break
01[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:40] {Les} BATS charts clearly out of whack if GDX is .50
[09:40] {nemo} gdx .26
01[09:41] {Threei}  ugh... wrong symbol, never mind
[09:41] {nemo} nice
01[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:41] {nemo} put the bottle down, Vad
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:42] {nemo} one of your old favorites dino-veco
[09:43] {ese} out btu .50 +.04 from yesterday..........and es survives a bout of stupidity
[09:45] {ese} not sure what i did but my stop loss didn't take...didn't press the right button or something was looking at $400 dn this morning...was a little stunned to see that i still had a position from last friday
[09:46] {ese} yesterday 
[09:46] {dino} adding nov 35 calls crus
01[09:46] {Threei}  let's trail SLW to .59
01[09:48] {Threei}  and LVS to .44
[09:49] {nemo} crus at -6.66
01[09:49] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
01[09:52] {Threei}  out SLW
[09:53] {nemo} spy has to test 142
01[09:53] {Threei}  and out LVS in full .68
[09:53] {nemo} then we'll see numbers at 10
[09:55] {cc_8} Pre-open movers . US stock futures are mixed this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 5 points to 13,025.00 and S&P 500 index fell...
01[10:00] {Threei}  weak numbers
[10:00] {nemo} barely
[10:00] {nemo} bull market is on
01[10:00] {Threei}  ISM is decent
[10:00] {nemo} we're gonna' run
[10:00] {nemo} pay and pray day
[10:04] {ese} thats a good one nemo.........good way to look at it
[10:05] {nemo} VMW
[10:06] {Les} look at IWM vol at price 1 min
[10:07] {nemo} look at spy volume over that two minute where you had 2.5 mil...that's capitulation/euphoria volume it breaks higher, that's real strength
01[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .55 break
01[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .45 
[10:11] {robbers} thanks, Vad, LVS.
01[10:11] {Threei}  yw
[10:12] {Les} spy outside 1 min bb's as they tighten. reversal time maybe
[10:12] {Les} db spxu?
[10:12] {nemo} you could play that
[10:13] {ese} ok...i need an answer ...i tried to short FAZ at .15 and it wouldn't take it.......anyone know why
01[10:13] {Threei}  FAZ is inversed ETF
01[10:14] {Threei}  those are usually unshortable, just go long FAS instead
[10:14] {nemo} FAS is the long
[10:14] {nemo} you a blonde ese?
[10:14] {ese} lol
[10:14] {ese} ya i got that but just wondering why you cant short them
[10:15] {ese} also.........keep in mind that i tell my students tha no question is a dumb question
[10:15] {Les} no dumb questions, only dumb people...
[10:15] {Les} says Mr Garrison
[10:15] {ese} rotflol.............
[10:16] {ese} you goofs are a bunch of tough nuts to crack
[10:16] {nemo} Well that's what I tell people too...but if you believe in statistical sciences, at a minimum 50% of the people are genetic morons
[10:16] {Les} no to spxu
[10:16] {nemo} no, I think it's a grind up day
[10:17] {nemo} as a matter of fact, I think this is the start of the drive to new highs for the year
[10:17] {Will49} scalps better on a grind up day?
[10:17] {Les} yeh was thinking that with SLW long entry nemo
01[10:17] {Threei}  there is a pair, FAS/FAZ. They move in inverted fashion to each other. Go long one or another. It exhausts all possible intentions - why complicate things with borrowing shares?
[10:17] {nemo} and hold higher, always take a portion off to control risk
[10:17] {Will49} tks
[10:17] {Will49} that what you mean by pay/pray?
01[10:17] {Threei}  shorting is simple only on surface
01[10:18] {Threei}  mechanics of share lending underneath are very involved
[10:18] {nemo} yeah, you have to buy at support on days like today
[10:18] {Will49} tks nemo
[10:18] {ese} true
[10:18] {nemo} breakouts work, but action has moved so high, you get worried it can't keep going, but it does so you have to pay, and then pray it doesn't drop
[10:19] {Will49} :)
[10:20] {nemo} see, you get no good buy in spots
[10:22] {nemo} 143.25-.50 is volume resistance on spy
[10:22] {nemo} Vad LOVES these type of days....
[10:22] {nemo} ...NOT!
[10:23] {Les} gdx .25 break?
[10:23] {Les} with a bit of consolidation at vwap here?
01[10:24] {Threei}  not sure
[10:25] {nemo} WMB might be a short here
[10:25] {nemo} for you pessimists
[10:32] {ese} ladies and gents have a great rest of the day...catch ya tomorrow
01[10:32] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:32] {Will49} bye eses
[10:32] {Les} and you accuse me of being a fast quitter vad...
[10:35] {nemo} mmmhhhh, this is dangerous:
[10:35] {nemo}
[10:35] {Les} LVS
[10:35] {dino} big brother
[10:35] {nemo} yeah
[10:36] {Will49} more like big daddy 
01[10:38] {Threei}  frikin CAT got away
[10:39] {Les} LVS rippin
[10:40] {nemo} here we go
[10:41] {nemo} we get through 143.50 next resistance is the 50 SMA around .70ish
01[10:44] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  87 break
01[10:45] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:45] {nemo} finiies going hi9gher
[10:45] {nemo} spy going hihger
[10:45] {nemo} ursine sodomy!!!
[10:46] {Les} so you're not in fact a hunter Nemo, but a buggerer of bears...
[10:46] {nemo} I've got cat testing .50 ish before drop
[10:46] {nemo} no...merely a reporter on that account
[10:47] {nemo} BOHICA BEARS!!!!
[10:47] {Will49} :D
[10:50] {nemo} one could make the argument for shorting the indexes here but you're not seeing the volume coming in to counteract the run, the attempt at 10 blew right trhough the levels
[10:50] {nemo} wmb very weak
01[10:54] {Threei}  National Daily Tracking: #Romney 49%, #Obama 47%
[10:56] {Les} SLW just tested 5th Oct top
[10:57] {dino} abmd hl l .10 stop .89
[11:00] {Les} LVS s 47?
[11:01] {nemo} where is support?
[11:01] {Les} immediate support .93, strong support .70
[11:02] {nemo} so, what's the Risk/Reward?
[11:02] {nemo} do you have a lower high?
01[11:02] {Threei}  I'd prefer to short into bounce
01[11:02] {Threei}  around .10 - .15
[11:02] {nemo} yep, that's my point..was trying to make Les think...might as well squeeze gold from his ass
[11:03] {Les} well stop it
01[11:07] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  87 break
01[11:07] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[11:09] {Threei}  no worky
[11:09] {dino} abmd stop
[11:10] {nemo} crus .80 level
[11:14] {cc_8} will
[11:14] {cc_8} get on skype, i'll take a look at your irc now
01[11:15] {Threei}  CAT rinse
01[11:15] {Threei}  grrr
[11:15] {nemo} SPY touched the new Monthly Pivot this morning
[11:21] {nemo} iwm at vwap
[11:25] {scottie} abc l 41 ?
[11:26] {dino} pzza drop
01[11:26] {Threei}  I think so but hl
[11:26] {scottie} ok
[11:26] {dino} tumi hl l .70 
01[11:27] {Threei}  (GR) Greece court: planned pension cuts and retirement age increase sought by Troika lenders may be unconstitutional
01[11:28] {Threei}  "oh, OK then, we back off" said noone
03[11:32] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[11:34] {cc_8} Set1
[11:34] {cc_8} Set
[11:34] {cc_8} Set1
[11:35] {scottie} went to 1:1 within a second, too fast for me
[11:35] {nemo} well, Greece is just setting up to leave the Euro...fine we won't cut anything, go back to the, pay them their full pension, and they can buy a bag of potato chips with their monthly check
[11:37] {cc_8} Set1
[11:37] {cc_8} Set1
[11:37] {nemo} what are you doing?
[11:37] {Will49} cc is helping me setup my irc
01[11:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .70 break
01[11:40] {Threei}  Invalidated  
01[11:40] {Threei}  on radar though
01[11:40] {Threei}  should be near the bottom
[11:40] {scottie} do you have a read on abc now Vad ?
01[11:41] {Threei}  more looks like short now
01[11:41] {Threei}  gah... late
[11:41] {scottie} that's what I thought tks
01[11:41] {Threei}  those two rejection tails
[11:44] {Beau} good late morning all
01[11:45] {Threei}  beau :)
[11:45] {nemo} slw
[11:48] {nemo} poor bears
01[11:52] {Threei}  nice drop ABC
[11:53] {Les} support levels played out nicely on lvs
[11:53] {scottie} would have been good, hesitated too much
01[11:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .55
[11:57] {nemo} wow
[11:59] {nemo} vwap .74 and decending should get there
01[12:00] {Threei}  you on mirc will?
[12:00] {Will49} yes
01[12:00] {Threei}  no disconnections so far
[12:00] {Will49} not so far
[12:00] {Les} where u at Will?
01[12:00] {Threei}  round of applause for cc_8?
[12:00] {Will49} Victoria BC
[12:01] {Will49} Yea, let's hear it for the wonder kid CC
[12:01] {Will49} he's going to help me set the clock on my VCr next
[12:02] {scottie} lol
[12:03] {Les} ready for test of support SLW.
01[12:03] {Threei}  1:1 LVS
[12:03] {Will49} Vad, new version of mIRC seems to have fixed ping issue
01[12:03] {Threei}  yes
01[12:04] {Threei}  I am just surprised it didn't accept your settings from previous
[12:04] {Will49} I probably screwed it up
01[12:04] {Threei}  normally mirc upgrades always took all preexisting settings
01[12:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  ABC  .50 break
01[12:12] {Threei}  stop .44
[12:16] {scottie} lvs +.19 tks Vad
01[12:16] {Threei}  1:2
01[12:16] {Threei}  out
01[12:16] {Threei}  yw
[12:18] {nemo} dino crus
[12:18] {Will49} tks Vad 1:2
01[12:19] {Threei}  :)
[12:19] {dino} still in the calls nemo
[12:21] {Les}
[12:21] {Les} couple of nice ones therer
01[12:22] {Threei}  mama...
01[12:22] {Threei}  wtf
01[12:28] {Threei}  half out ABC
01[12:29] {Threei}  out in full
[12:55] {Les} RIG .10 b/d?
[12:55] {Les} nah
01[12:55] {Threei}  meh
[12:56] {Les} range bound. But maybe if it consolidates around this leve...
[12:56] {Les} l
[13:06] {dino} wac drop
[13:15] {Les} tna
01[13:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[13:17] {Threei}  If holds  82 
[13:18] {nemo} almost think spy has to test vwap first
01[13:18] {Threei}  could be, but then we won't get trigger and will recalibrate IWM for lower entry
01[13:19] {Threei}  looks good to me
01[13:20] {Threei}  risk is small
01[13:20] {Threei}  SPY seems to be turning
01[13:21] {Threei}  nope
[13:21] {nemo} not as dumb as I look
01[13:22] {Threei}  well, I feel safe betting 5 cents on the chance that nobody could be this dumb {G}
[13:23] {dino} nemo, read on crus?
[13:23] {dino} going to s3?
[13:24] {nemo} pullback looks like here fib support at .70 price support at .50, Next level above .48 then 38.25.  S3 possible, but it has to become a follower evdentually, recommend trailing stop
[13:25] {dino} thx
[13:26] {nemo} interesting test.  most technology stocks have recovered most of their losses within a day.  If this doesn't further indication of market weakness
[13:28] {dino} having trouble w/.20
[13:28] {nemo} will likely test the whole
[13:29] {nemo} also, lunch time
[13:30] {Les} RIG drifted down to near 1:1. 46 might hold
[13:34] {nemo} this should be it
01[13:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break hl
01[13:42] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[13:42] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:42] {nemo} I would target 59 if it breaks that swing high
01[13:43] {Threei}  could be, I just doubt it can get there without gut-wrenching pullbacks
01[13:43] {Threei}  and I am not in the mood to sit through those
[13:44] {Les} nothing but boredom hey vad?
01[13:44] {Threei}  well, with many particpants out of the picture and elections looming, I suspect we are to see this till Wed
[13:45] {Les} right
01[13:45] {Threei}  but we are staying on a positive side
01[13:45] {Threei}  and will has mirc now
01[13:45] {Threei}  so life is good
[13:45] {Will49} all is well in the world
[13:45] {Will49} it takes a village
01[13:45] {Threei}  well, I wouldn't go this far
01[13:46] {Threei}  some things at some spots at some point are relatively bearable
01[13:46] {Threei}  this is how I'd put it {G}
01[13:46] {Threei}  1:1
[13:47] {nemo} should go boom above .40
[13:47] {Will49} .10 scalp...tks Vad
01[13:48] {Threei}  :)
[13:48] {Will49} should I get back in nemo? :)
[13:48] {Will49} don't answer that
[13:48] {nemo} if you're out have to wait for a new setup
[13:49] {Will49} tks
[13:49] {nemo} that right there looks like a double top until it breaks that ..34 level
[13:49] {nemo} Ask vad
01[13:50] {Threei}  what am I, jeeves?
[13:50] {nemo} just for confirmation of my opinion or denial as the case may be
01[13:51] {Threei}  no, you are right
[13:51] {nemo} above .34 could be a new entry
01[13:51] {Threei}  as much as it pains me to admit
[13:51] {Les} don't encourage him vad
01[13:52] {Threei}  he seems to be a self-encouraging mechanism
[13:54] {dino} vrsn spike
[13:55] {nemo} looters down in Stone Harbor and Margate in NJ.  Those are high end neighborhoods
[13:56] {nemo} My cousin lives 5 miles inland from there
[13:59] {dino} exc drop
01[14:09] {Threei}
[14:11] {dino} exc hl l .85
01[14:14] {Threei}  frikin TNA at 1:2
[14:17] {robbers} I scalped it for .12, thanks.
01[14:18] {Threei}  :)
01[14:18] {Threei}  these days between hurricane and elections feel like mix of sleeping and pecking
01[14:19] {Threei}  wake up, peck some trade, fall asleep again
[14:19] {dino} no kidding
[14:19] {Will49} I'd still rather be the pecker than the peckee
[14:19] {robbers} Waiting for Godot.  Or Romney, whomever comes first.
01[14:20] {Threei}  lol
[14:20] {robbers} 1:3 damn scalpers.
[14:21] {nemo} probably good to .70ish
01[14:22] {Threei}  aftershocks continue at our neck of the woods, woth some reaching about 6
[14:22] {Will49} it's getting us prepared for the big one Vad
[14:22] {dino} exc stop -.24
01[14:23] {Threei}  I've no doubt that when it comes, it will still be a surprise, lol
[14:23] {Will49} yea, sometime in next 100 years or so
[14:25] {Will49} You're not much above ea level, eh Vad?
[14:25] {Will49} sea
01[14:26] {Threei}  should be enough to clear tsunami
[14:26] {Will49} maybe
01[14:27] {Threei}  I am practically at 17th hwy level whih is considered safe
[14:27] {Will49} Hope so, wouldn't want to have to find a new trading room at this point
[14:27] {Will49} :0
[14:27] {dino} lol
01[14:28] {Threei}  well, gotta survive hawaii volcano first, then worry about local quakes
[14:28] {Will49} yeah, one crisi at a time
[14:28] {Will49} crisis
01[14:29] {Threei}
01[14:29] {Threei}  yesterday's update
[14:29] {Will49} C and I will be in Maui during Jan. Half way up Holeackala
01[14:30] {Threei}  cool... Maui is my second favorite
[14:30] {Will49} So if it get active while we're there, I'll have to look for the big trading room in the sky
01[14:32] {Threei}  (GR) Greece govt: Greek court decision today is an opinion, not binding**REMINDER: earlier today a Greece court said that planned pension cuts and retirement age increase sought by Troika lenders may be unconstitutional.
01[14:35] {Threei}
[14:38] {Will49} Doesn't history refer to Greece as the cradle of civilazation?
[14:38] {dino} y
[14:39] {Will49} now fantasy land
[14:39] {cc_8} will 
[14:39] {cc_8} check ur reports
[14:39] {cc_8} should be fixed now
[14:42] {Will49} Excellent...tks CC
[14:43] {nemo} wow went to 59
[14:44] {Les}   in the most disorderly manner.
01[14:45] {Threei}  interestingly fitting: Nemo me impune lacessit
[14:45] {nemo} of my favorite saying after someone pisses me off
[14:46] {nemo} gmcr
[14:46] {nemo} nobody harms me with impunity
[14:48] {nemo} wlt
[14:54] {Will49} pot
[14:54] {Will49} oops
01[14:55] {Threei}  stop with temptations, will
[14:55] {Will49} BC flags:)
01[14:55] {Threei}  hehe
01[14:56] {Threei}  while on Maui, do you intend to drive the road to hana?
[14:56] {Will49} can you imagine our American brothers legalizing pot before we do Vad?
01[14:56] {Threei}  not really
[14:56] {nemo} no way, to much money involved in enforcement
[14:57] {Will49} Have done Hana road a couple of times..pretty but nerve-wracking drive
01[14:57] {Threei}  that it is :)
[14:57] {Will49} nemo, you could let half prisoners go free
[14:58] {Will49} what a saving
[14:58] {nemo} ffiv dino
[14:58] {nemo} yeah, but then a bunch of people would lose there jobs
[14:58] {nemo} I'm all for it
[14:58] {dino} was watching that
[14:58] {nemo} like ffiv under .40
[15:02] {nemo} should test the whole
[15:08] {nemo} oh well
01[15:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
01[15:09] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[15:19] {Les} JPM
[15:20] {Les} outside it's 15 min bb's which have tightened up. possible reversal candidate
[15:21] {Les} FAS too. banksters might be cashed in into close.
[15:25] {dino} took hours but out tumi .94, +.24
01[15:26] {Threei}  well... +.24 is good... hours is bad... mixed bag, I don't know what to say...
[15:27] {dino} not much to say
[15:37] {Les} JPM 1:3 - 15 min 'bubble breakers' are something I'll work on developing as my own edge
01[15:39] {Threei}  cool
01[15:39] {Threei}  why did you pick 15 min?
[15:39] {Les} Keep multiple time frames
[15:39] {Les} on days like this
01[15:40] {Threei}  yes but why 15?
[15:40] {Les} I watch 15 min for signs of reversal
[15:40] {Les} too many times trying to catch reversal on grind up in lower time frames
[15:40] {Les} 15 min is key to reversal
[15:41] {Les} 15 min with bb's tightening and stock on the top side of that tightening band... short that sucker
01[15:42] {Threei}  I am sure you'll find this idea is lacking another element
01[15:42] {Threei}  breakouts are made of exactly this too
[15:42] {Les} how so?
01[15:42] {Threei}  tightening BBs tell you sharp move is coming
01[15:43] {Threei}  they don't tell you which way
[15:43] {Les} aaah i get you
[15:43] {Les} no, particular setup this
01[15:43] {Threei}  any consolidation near the high followed by breakout has the same making
[15:43] {Les} when daily grind up has left stock above R3 intraday
01[15:43] {Threei}  so how do you decide short this sucker or buy the break?
[15:44] {Les} wait I'll FB it
01[15:44] {Threei}  look at FCX fpr comparison
01[15:44] {Threei}  what was different in that one?
[15:45] {Les} yes same setup
[15:45] {Les} didn't break
01[15:45] {Threei}  but acted differently
[15:45] {Les} yes
01[15:45] {Threei}  that's what I meant when said more is needed to determine the direction
[15:45] {Les} sure. I don't blindly follow 15
[15:46] {Les} important red flag though
[15:46] {Les} drop down to 3 min time frame
[15:46] {Les} will show it in FB too
01[15:49] {Threei}  OK guys, no more trades
01[15:49] {Threei}  thank you all
01[15:49] {Threei}  another slow but profitable day
[15:49] {Will49} Tks Vad...good day
[15:49] {Les} nice day. thanks
01[15:49] {Threei}  see you tomorrow for more of the same :)
[15:51] {dino} gn all
[15:55] {nemo} definitely higher tomorrow have to test levels