Friday, December 28, 2012

Dec 28 2012

Somewhat jerky day, with a few good trades and a few stops - one's mileage would vary depending on which executions one got or missed. Overall, this so far develops according to the scenario we described at

Session Time: Fri Dec 28 00:00:00 2012
01[08:50] {Threei}  Potential US sovereign downgrade concerns provide a headwind for risk appetite in session
01[08:51] {Threei}  Markets continue to focus on the developments related to the US budget talks. Later today, US President Obama is expected to meet with various Congressional leaders at around 3:00 p.m. EST. Also, US House Republicans are due to resume their legislative session on Sunday, Dec 30th.
[09:01] {dino} gm
01[09:02] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:05] {scottie} good morning
01[09:05] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:14] {thomcbell} hi guys - looks like i left right when things got interesting yesterday - 10am
[09:14] {thomcbell} est
01[09:14] {Threei}  tbell :)
01[09:14] {Threei}  yes, was a fine day almost to the end
[09:19] {thomcbell} i hope you got the 26.30 break on FB
[09:20] {thomcbell} you were on it like white on rice
[09:21] {dptl} good morning all
01[09:21] {Threei}  dp :)
01[09:21] {Threei}  don't remember... we shorted it but details escape me
01[09:21] {Threei}  my brain is still in tropics
[09:22] {dino} wheres nemo been?
01[09:22] {Threei}  hunting
[09:24] {cipher} gm
01[09:24] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:24] {dino} full day monday?
01[09:25] {Threei}  yes
01[09:25] {Threei}  Jan 1 is off
01[09:29] {Threei}  wow FB
[09:30] {dino} gap around 24.75
01[09:31] {Threei}  need a bounce to short
[09:31] {cipher} qcor l.79
01[09:31] {Threei}  desirably between .40 and .50
[09:32] {cipher} out qcor -.15
01[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {robbers} out fb, thanks
01[09:40] {Threei}  :)
[09:41] {dino} coh hl l .50
[09:44] {dptl} cov .80 sh?
01[09:44] {Threei}  *(US) DEC CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 51.6 V 51.0E
01[09:45] {Threei}  hl
[09:45] {dino} coh stop -.25
01[09:46] {Threei}  - Employment:45.9 v 55.2 prior (lowest since Nov 2009)
[09:48] {dptl} didt get cov
01[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  45 break
01[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:53] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:53] {dptl} btu .40 sh?
[09:54] {cipher} gmcr l.57
01[09:54] {Threei}  did you take COV on a bounce?
01[09:54] {Threei}  worked perfectly
[09:54] {dptl} no
01[09:55] {Threei}  BTU, yes\
[09:55] {dptl} was looking at lvs at the moment
[09:55] {dino} ggc hl l .04 stop .94
[09:57] {cipher} out gmcr .70 +.13
[09:57] {dino} tol hl l .07
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .60 break hl
01[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:59] {cipher} crzo l .24
01[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) NOV PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 1.7% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: % V 12.2%E
01[10:00] {Threei}  8.9% V 12.2%E
[10:02] {dptl} met .40 short?
01[10:02] {Threei}  no
[10:02] {dptl} yeah
[10:05] {dptl} nav .15 long?
01[10:05] {Threei}  GLD 1:1
01[10:06] {Threei}  NAV yeah, but it's slow
[10:06] {cipher} crzo stopped -.11
[10:07] {cipher} gmcr s .82
[10:08] {cipher} cov .69
[10:09] {dino} stop ggc -.04
[10:09] {cipher} apkt l.12
[10:10] {Will49} Good morning
01[10:10] {Threei}  will!
[10:11] {Will49} just checking up on you guys
[10:11] {Will49} make sure you're following the rules :)
01[10:11] {Threei}  we are
01[10:11] {Threei}  1:2
[10:11] {robbers} out gld, thanks.
01[10:11] {Threei}  :)
01[10:12] {Threei}  wait
01[10:12] {Threei}  what rules?
[10:12] {Will49} any rules, as long as you follow them
[10:12] {robbers} Vad rules.
01[10:12] {Threei}  ah, OK
01[10:12] {Threei}  those we do
[10:12] {Will49} of course
01[10:12] {Threei}  like: alcohol in small doses is harmless in any quantities
[10:13] {Will49} :)
[10:13] {thomcbell} shameful Vad
[10:14] {dptl} how about now met short?
01[10:14] {Threei}  meh
01[10:15] {Threei}  robbers, were you able to see those two shots I posted?
[10:15] {robbers} I only saw one, the palm sunset.
01[10:16] {Threei}  not this one?
[10:16] {cipher} crzo l .00
[10:16] {robbers} Nope, here:
[10:16] {thomcbell} fb looks like a 25.47 break if holding 25.37
01[10:17] {Threei}  strange... why does it show you one and not another
01[10:17] {Threei}  I'd prefer .50 asd a trigger, tbell
01[10:18] {Threei}  GLD 1:3, over
01[10:19] {Threei}  FB 1:1
01[10:19] {Threei}  quite amazing how almost every trade works this holiday
01[10:22] {Threei}  things quieted down a bit
01[10:22] {Threei}  although I believe we are still to see fireworks today
[10:23] {Will49} sorry, that was me
01[10:23] {Threei}  lol
[10:23] {Will49} should have stayed in bed
01[10:23] {Threei}  so, for now, let me share major after-holiday shock
01[10:23] {Threei}  returing home, stepping on a scale, can't believe my eyes - 8 lbs gain
01[10:24] {Threei}  2 days later, everything's back to norm
01[10:24] {Threei}  huh?
[10:24] {Will49} thought you were referring to our earthquake
01[10:24] {Threei}  nah, didn't notice it
[10:24] {Will49} shook us pretty good in Victoria
01[10:25] {Threei}  many says that... I guess I am less sensitive :)
[10:25] {Will49} was only 3.3
01[10:25] {Threei}  3.9
01[10:25] {Threei}  but close
[10:25] {Will49} can't imagine what a 7.0 would be like
01[10:25] {Threei}  13 km from Sidney
[10:25] {robbers} Someone had a fat finger on the scale at 8 lbs over.
01[10:25] {Threei}  lol, it's digital scale
[10:26] {dptl} vz 43 short?
01[10:26] {Threei}  yes
01[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .20 break hl
[10:28] {scottie} not in short list ?
01[10:28] {Threei}  yeah... what the deuce
[10:29] {dino} last try ggc hl l .05
[10:29] {cipher} out apkt .24 +.12
[10:30] {thomcbell} fb 1:2
01[10:30] {Threei}  turns out, sudden switch to hot weather causes high water retention
[10:30] {thomcbell} stop to 25.60
01[10:30] {Threei}  which is not real weight gain of course... but I felt like I retained Superior Lake
[10:31] {Will49} got some camel dna Vad?
01[10:31] {Threei}  I guess
[10:32] {cipher} scss l .21
[10:32] {thomcbell} FB hit 1:3 and out
01[10:32] {Threei}  very nice one
[10:32] {Will49} i see you're still up to your old tricks tbell
01[10:33] {Threei}  almost time to short it
[10:33] {dptl} stopped vz
[10:33] {thomcbell} agree totally - now it seems sellers in control - and they push a bit too hard and you have these nasty snapback rallys
[10:35] {cipher} crzo stopped -.05
[10:36] {dino} gap around .70
01[10:37] {Threei}  good read:
01[10:38] {Threei}  In this zero-sum universe there is only so much happiness. The idea is that if we wipe the smile off the faces of people with prosperous businesses and successful careers, that will make the rest of us grin.
[10:39] {cipher} scss stopped -.06
[10:40] {dino} politics f envy, "you got it, i want it"
[10:40] {dino} "cannot figure out how to get it, so i (politician) will destroy it"
01[10:41] {Threei}  yup
[10:41] {dino} atlas shrugged. we are living it
[10:42] {Will49} amen
01[10:42] {Threei}  can't believe I am living it second time
[10:42] {Will49} who is Vadym Galt
[10:42] {thomcbell} ha
01[10:42] {Threei}  (US) Obama said to be offering a scaled back budget package today with meeting with Congressional leaders; as had been speculated yesterday
[10:44] {dptl} vlo .50 long?
01[10:45] {Threei}  nah
01[10:45] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[10:45] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:46] {dptl} in
01[10:49] {Threei}  1;1
[10:49] {dptl} out half ty
[10:50] {robbers} out fb, nice call.
01[10:50] {Threei}  :)
01[11:00] {Threei}  - Follow up: Short term deal could be a 60-90 day deal - CNBC's Harwood
[11:00] {dino} so nothing solved as usual
[11:02] {dino} out ggc .28, +.23
[11:02] {robbers} wtg, dino.
[11:03] {dino} ty
01[11:04] {Threei}  they don't want to solve anything dino
01[11:05] {Threei}  it becomes more and more clear to me that what I was considering a conspiracy theory a few short years ago is actual;ly true:
01[11:05] {Threei}  these folks running the show now actually want America weaker,
01[11:05] {Threei}  they sincerely think it will be better for the world as they see it
[11:06] {dino} the democrats, yes
01[11:06] {Threei}  when told that this or that measure will harm US economy, they nod and say duh
[11:07] {dino} they have been dumbing down the last few generations for dependency
01[11:07] {Threei}  there is only one real question remained to be answered, IMO
[11:08] {dino} pxd drop
01[11:08] {Threei}  whether this change reached the point of no return and that'ds where US headed, or it's a fluke that will be corrected in the next cycle
[11:09] {dino} sincerely hoping for correction. but when 48% receives govt assistance, its a huge boat to turn
[11:09] {scottie} RIMM s .85 ?
01[11:09] {Threei}  yes RIMM
[11:10] {dptl} out more fb
[11:10] {scottie} fb +.18 tks Vad
01[11:11] {Threei}  1:2
[11:11] {dptl} stop to .51 for last
[11:11] {dino} gj
01[11:11] {Threei}  welcome sir
01[11:12] {Threei}  sirs
01[11:14] {Threei}  I am torn on that dino... my personal sense is that it's permanent condition and no turn is possible anymore. But I realize that being in the thick of events and being emotionally invested clouds our judgement... so maybe there is a chance for a development we hope for
[11:19] {dino} coh hl l .20
[11:27] {scottie} in rimm .84
[11:28] {scottie} small
[11:40] {dino} suss?
01[11:40] {Threei}  don't see anything there
[11:43] {dptl} anf .65 short?
01[11:43] {Threei}  not sure... a bit narrrow
[11:43] {dptl} ok
[11:45] {dptl} hes .50 sh?
[11:45] {dino} suss hl l .16 ave
01[11:47] {Threei}  HES, I think so
[11:53] {dptl} in hes
[11:55] {dino} took forever, but out tol .31, +.24
01[11:56] {Threei}  wtg
[11:56] {dino} thx
[12:05] {dino} out coh while stepped away, out .48, +.28
01[12:06] {Threei}  lol
[12:07] {Will49} See ya all in Feb. Off to Maui.. Happy New Year and good trading :)
[12:08] {scottie} bye Will
[12:08] {dptl} have fun Will :)
[12:08] {Will49} cheers guys
[12:10] {dino} have fun will
01[12:10] {Threei}  have a great trip will
01[12:15] {Threei}  (US) Senators Corker (R-TN) and Alexander (R-TN) hold news conference; recommends reforms to medicare in exchange for debt ceiling concessions- Notes it is clear that a budget deal will not be achieved by Dec 31
[12:18] {dptl} stopped hes
01[12:18] {Threei}  things float randomly
[12:18] {scottie} was with you on that one dp :(
[12:19] {dino} in capitulation/euphoric mode
[12:32] {dptl} jcp .50 long?
01[12:32] {Threei}  yuck
[12:33] {dptl} lol that bad
01[12:33] {Threei}  well :)
01[12:33] {Threei}  not only it's a breakout suring lunch.Friday lull,
01[12:33] {Threei}  but it's whole day's range is 25 cents
[12:35] {dptl} ye...thats me pushing again i think...seeing things
01[12:44] {Threei}  might be a bounce scalp from under .35 though
[12:45] {dptl} jcp?
01[12:45] {Threei}  yes
[12:47] {dptl} with .30 stop?
01[12:47] {Threei}  yes
[12:48] {dptl} .35 break?
01[12:48] {Threei}  yup
[12:50] {dptl} in
[12:54] {dptl} stopped
01[13:06] {Threei}  rinse
[13:07] {dptl} yeah
01[13:12] {Threei}  Markets cautious ahead of last ditch fiscal cliff talks
01[13:12] {Threei}  - Stocks traded lower on continued worries about the US going over the fiscal cliff despite an eleventh hour effort to reach a short term compromise deal in Washington. Congressional leaders are headed to the White House at 3pmET today to hear the President's pitch for a short term "scaled down" deal that would reportedly extend for 60-90 days the Bush tax cuts for all but the wealthiest earners ($400K+), and delay or replace most of the sequester automatic cuts, as well as dealing with pressing AMT tax and unemployment insurance issues. Its unclear yet if Congressional leaders will go along with this proposal to "kick the can" one more time, and no post meeting press conferences have been scheduled yet.
[13:23] {dino} out suss -.01
[13:28] {dino} bud drop
[13:33] {dino} hl l .69
01[13:35] {Threei}  scottie... if RIMM works in the end, it will be a record-long hold, eh?
[13:35] {dptl} hes .45 sh?
01[13:36] {Threei}  frikin JCP
01[13:36] {Threei}  worked like charm
01[13:36] {Threei}  HES, I think so
[13:37] {scottie} rimm got tired of holding iot, out -.06
[13:37] {scottie} it
01[13:39] {Threei}  hmmm
01[13:39] {Threei}  it's not like there was something better around :)
[13:41] {dino} just imagine how slow monday will be
01[13:41] {Threei}  or, if there is no agreement, it can be quite furious
01[13:41] {Threei}  with all the rush to sell
01[13:42] {Threei}  one never knows :)
[13:46] {dptl} what if i get .50 break sh hes agresive?
[13:48] {dptl} late
01[13:48] {Threei}  hard to tell
[13:49] {dptl} .45 break still valid i think....held .55 on that pullback
[13:56] {scottie} in hes .44
[13:56] {dptl} .43
01[13:56] {Threei}  RIMM 1:1
[13:57] {scottie} now I regret
[14:04] {dino} i understand. lol
[14:05] {dptl} you better work hes
[14:16] {dino} out bud .78, +.09
[14:20] {scottie} gj dino
[14:21] {dino} ty, but of course it goes up now
[14:21] {scottie} lol
[14:28] {scottie} stop .51 ?
01[14:28] {Threei}  certainly
[14:40] {scottie} held .45 a few times, new stop there?
01[14:42] {Threei}  kind of personal decision
[14:42] {scottie} ok, will leave it at .51
[14:47] {dptl} sigh....out
[14:47] {scottie} right
[14:48] {dptl} almost an hour
[14:52] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[14:57] {dptl} wlp short?
01[14:58] {Threei}  i think so
[14:58] {dptl} .15?
01[14:59] {Threei}  yeah
01[15:15] {Threei}  Invalidated
[15:17] {dptl} yeah...last hope to fix day a bit  disapered :)
[15:19] {dptl} you think monday will be as slow?
01[15:19] {Threei}  who knows... depends on what they agree or not agree today
[15:20] {dptl} i see
01[15:20] {Threei}  you ignore most of my calls, don't you? I don't see how this day was to be "fixed"
[15:20] {dptl} well i only got fb
[15:21] {dptl} and had other 3 stops
[15:22] {dptl} actualy 4 stops..and fb winner
[15:22] {scottie} same here dp
[15:23] {scottie} including rimm which I shouldn't have exited too soon
[15:24] {dptl} and didt take gld ..i usually dont trade it too expensive for me
[15:26] {dptl} so i only missed first fb trade in the morning but got second one.....
[15:26] {dino} 4 wins and 4 stops here today, but wins ave was much greater than stops. in black, but a bit light
[15:27] {dptl} just slow and wierd day   one of thouse....
[15:29] {dino} i'll 2nd that
01[15:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  26 break
01[15:34] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[15:37] {dptl} in
[15:37] {dptl} .97
01[15:37] {Threei}  (US) PResident Obama said to not be offering anything new at the meeting- financial press
[15:38] {scottie} couldn't get in
01[15:38] {Threei}  1:1
[15:39] {dino} fb nice call
[15:39] {dptl} half out ty
[15:44] {dino} obummer strikes again
01[15:44] {Threei}  - Obama said to be asking leaders what measures they support in lieu of new plan offer; has requested counteroffers from those in the meeting assuming they cannot support his plan from last week - Obama will ask for an up or down vote in Congress on his prior plan assuming no realistic counteroffers are proposed
01[15:45] {Threei}  political theater
[15:45] {dino} sure is. high school he said she said b.s.
[15:49] {dino} dji -3% in five days
01[15:49] {Threei}  I am puzzled by this "I got elected on this, so you all bend over" - as if they were not elcted on opposite platfolrm, and their voters are somehow lesser beings than his are
[15:50] {dino} puzzled here too, but then again, he thinks he's god
01[15:53] {Threei}  I a pretty sure they'll allow cliff to happen
[15:54] {dino} sure, with some csort of retro-active fix 30 days from now
01[15:55] {Threei}  yes, and fix limited to tax cut for those under 250K
01[15:55] {Threei}  so obama gets all he wanted, and no spending cuts
[15:55] {dino} not so sure there. once jan 1st hits, imo republicans have nothing to lose, so they stay tough
01[15:56] {Threei}  well, they can't vote down tax cut
01[15:56] {Threei}  that would mean being wiped from political map for the next 2000 years
[15:56] {dino} it will be $400k or $500k imo
[15:57] {dino} and no 3i, just means some may be thrown out. the party will survive fine. contrary to news it was a very close election
01[15:57] {Threei}  you know I want you to be right :)
[15:58] {dino} spending is the problem and most americans agree to that
[15:58] {dptl} out rest fb ty
01[15:58] {Threei}  yw
[15:58] {dino} needs to go back to 18% historical, from obummers 24%
01[15:58] {Threei}  true... but they don't want "their" slice of spending to be cut
[15:59] {scottie} gn all see you monday
01[15:59] {Threei}  wow
[15:59] {dino} gn
01[15:59] {Threei}  look at this last spoet down
01[15:59] {Threei}  step
01[15:59] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:59] {dino} calling it a week, thx all
01[15:59] {Threei}  have a good weekend, see you Monday
[15:59] {dptl} gn all
[15:59] {robbers} Over and out.