Monday, December 31, 2012

Dec 31 2012

Despite headlines football, we ended the year on a nice profitable note and profitable trade. More to come next year. Happy New Year everyone, let me treat you to the last sunset of 2012.

Session Time: Mon Dec 31 00:00:01 2012
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:06] {Threei}  morning dino
[09:07] {dino} :)
01[09:07] {Threei}  (US) Senator Corker (R-TN): reiterates will probably be a deal today but without any meaningful deficit reduction - CNBC interview summary- Appears that the deficit reduction negotiation will be done around the debt ceiling authorization. - Suggests there should be 1-for-1 match between deficit reduction and debt ceiling authorization (e.g. $1T in entitlement reform in exchange for $1T in debt ceiling increase)
01[09:08] {Threei}  (US) Fiscal Cliff update: Democrats are said to offer tax concessions - financial press (update
01[09:08] {Threei}  )- Democrats are said to have agreed to raise the income threshold for tax increases to $450K a year (couples) from $250K. The Republicans are insisting on $550K threshold
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats are said want to raise capital gains and dividend taxes to 20% on households over $250K and reduce some allowable deductions
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats offer to maintain the threshold for taxable estates at $5M, with a 35% rate over that level
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats would permanently protect middle-class households from the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and delay the "sequester" automatic spending cuts until 2015. Republicans say they want spending cuts to offset the postponement of the sequester
01[09:08] {Threei}  - Democrats would extend unemployment benefits for a year, extend farm subsidies for a year and avoid a 27% cut in Medicare payments to doctors. The Republicans say they want offsets to these spending cuts.
01[09:08] {Threei}  ***Note that overnight, there were reports that Democrats were balking at a last minute
[09:10] {scottie} good morning
01[09:12] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:17] {cipher} gm
01[09:17] {Threei}  cipher :)
01[09:19] {Threei}  when did I know the fical cliff negotiations were doomed?
01[09:19] {Threei}  when they said they reached to Joe Biden for help
[09:20] {dptl} good morning
01[09:22] {Threei}  dp :)
01[09:27] {Threei}  FB formed .30 breakdown, but didn't wait fore open
[09:29] {dino} cvs gap fill 12/13
[09:31] {cipher} ebay l .35
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .05 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:33] {dino} wpi drop
01[09:34] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {thomcbell} slw strong as 10 men all the sudden
[09:36] {dino} wpi sm l .00
[09:36] {cipher} CELG L .31
[09:37] {cipher} out +.10
[09:37] {cipher} out ebay .70 +.35
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .90 break
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  161
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: DB  .50 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  FB
01[09:39] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[09:42] {dptl} nem .55 long?
[09:43] {dptl} or .45 short
01[09:43] {Threei}  can't tell on a long side
01[09:43] {Threei}  short looks right
[09:44] {dino} wpi stop flat
[09:47] {dino} re-load sm l wpi .51
[09:49] {cipher} nice entry
[09:49] {dino} ty
[09:50] {dptl} nem .60long now? if holds .50
01[09:50] {Threei}  not delighted by it
[09:50] {dptl} ok
[09:52] {dino} wpi to .91
[09:53] {dino} out wpi +.40
01[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .20 break
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:55] {dino} brb
[09:56] {cipher} tcbi l.29
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .45 break
01[09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break
01[09:58] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Hopeful for deal today; talks are progressing, but we are not there yet; Tax increase thresholds are the 'least of the issues' at the moment
[09:58] {cipher} wpi l .00
01[09:58] {Threei}  stop .58
[09:58] {dptl} in fb .48
01[09:59] {Threei}  (US) CNBC's John Harwood: Democrats said to be seeking more conditions on any agreement to raise income thresholds for extension of Bush tax cuts- Democrats are said to be willing to move income threshold to $400-450K if the highest tax brackets go all the way back up to Clinton era rates (36% and 39.6% were the two top Clinton era rates) and some revenue raised from estate tax increases. ***Note that earlier this morning, reports indicated that Democrats were willing to go as high as $450K threshold, if there were some offsets in other areas. The earlier reports also had indicated that the Democrats were willing to let estate taxes stay at current levels as a concession to Republicans.
01[10:00] {Threei}  Incredible... this whole thing was born out of spending cuts debates - and now there is no single word about spending cuts, it's all about tax raise
01[10:01] {Threei}  and for the comic relief: - White House Official: Talks between VP Biden and Senate Minority Leader McConnell made progress overnight
[10:01] {cipher} out wpi .13 +.13
01[10:02] {Threei}  FB 1:1
[10:02] {dptl} out half fb ty
[10:04] {dino} calm, mgln
[10:05] {thomcbell} wow aapl
[10:06] {thomcbell} lvs looks like a long setup 45.25 break
[10:06] {dino} mgln hl l .75
[10:06] {thomcbell} stop currtently too far
01[10:06] {Threei}  this must be the most disingenuous phrase characterizing the state of negotiations: "if there is no deal, that's because it's very hard for Boehner and McConnel to accept that taxes go up a little bit on millionares and billionares.
[10:07] {thomcbell} VAD LVS ?
01[10:07] {Threei}  spending cuts don't even enter his vocabul;ary
01[10:07] {Threei}  can't tell LVS
01[10:08] {Threei}  invalidated setup earlier
[10:10] {thomcbell} the entire thing is bananas
[10:10] {thomcbell} we will be dealing with debt ceiling and overall debt load for the entire year
01[10:10] {Threei}  here is what baffles me the most
01[10:11] {Threei}  for the first time in history US has president that sincerely believes that he needs to cut US down in power and influence
[10:11] {dino} been going on for 4 years why does that suddenly baffle you
01[10:11] {Threei}  and US elected him twice
01[10:11] {Threei}  this "elected twice" part that baffles me :)
[10:12] {dino} bunch of bleeding heart liberals
01[10:12] {Threei}  there were good presidents and bad presidents... but there was no president in the past that wanted to diminish US
[10:13] {cipher} lvnta s .15
01[10:13] {Threei}  FB 1:2
[10:13] {dptl} out fb ty
01[10:14] {Threei}  finally something works decently
01[10:14] {Threei}  yw
[10:14] {dptl} :)
[10:14] {cipher} cov lvnta -.05
[10:15] {cipher} ibm l .00
[10:17] {dptl} coh .30 short?
[10:18] {cipher} out ibm -.12
01[10:18] {Threei}  yucky stock
01[10:18] {Threei}  shakeout incorporated
[10:18] {dino} mgln stop -.24
[10:19] {dptl} lrcx .50 long?
[10:20] {cipher} coh l .25
[10:22] {cipher} out .33
[10:23] {cipher} ibm l .85
[10:25] {dino} wpi hl l .60
[10:26] {cipher} out ibm .10 +.25
[10:27] {cipher} wpi l .67
[10:28] {cipher} out .84
[10:30] {cipher} WPI L .70
[10:32] {cipher} out .78
[10:34] {dptl} nem .70long?
01[10:35] {Threei}  none of previous setups on it worked
01[10:35] {Threei}  what is it that attracts you for another try?
[10:35] {cipher} CRZO l .28
01[10:35] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[10:36] {dptl} ye you right....
[10:36] {cipher} ibm l.04
01[10:36] {Threei}  If holds  .46
[10:37] {cipher} out ibm .20
[10:38] {cipher} out crzo .34  +.06
[10:40] {thomcbell} FB looks like a 26.50 break if holding 26.40
01[10:41] {Threei}  FCX valid still
[10:45] {thomcbell} FB invalid
[10:45] {dptl} in .38 fcx
[10:47] {scottie} stop .48 ?
[10:48] {dino} wpi drop
01[10:48] {Threei}  yesa
[10:50] {dino} wpi hl l .00 trig
01[10:52] {Threei}  no go
[10:52] {cipher} wpi l .95
[10:53] {scottie} MDT s .30 ?
[10:53] {nemo} o.k. I feel ignored
01[10:54] {Threei}  I'd better hunt for aggressive entry on it
[10:54] {scottie} .35 ?
01[10:54] {Threei}  arounf .40 - .45
[10:54] {scottie} ok
01[10:54] {Threei}  hmmm... why would you nemo
[10:54] {nemo} faux sensitivity
01[10:54] {Threei}  we saw you, thought about it, decided to ignore you - isn't it a suign that we care?
[10:55] {cipher} out wpi .18 +.23 thx dino
[10:55] {dino} gj
[10:55] {dino} welcome back nemo
[10:55] {nemo} headed back out...last day to kill something edible...then it's kill things that kill season
[10:56] {nemo} was out in the treestand having a conversation with a fox this morning...that was weird
01[10:56] {Threei}  did he have an opinion about fiscal cliff?
[10:56] {nemo} how bout those jets dino?
[10:57] {nemo} no, just on the quality of the rodents in the area
[10:57] {cipher} crzo l .11
[10:57] {dino} ughhhh jets
01[10:57] {Threei}  he might have just the right perspective then...
[10:59] {cipher} out crzo -.06
[10:59] {thomcbell} the jets are unwatchable
[11:00] {dino} seriously, until sanchoke is gone, no watching
[11:02] {dino} coh hl l .25
[11:03] {dino} we get a deal? things are popping
01[11:04] {Threei}  no
01[11:05] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Talks are continuing; a few issues still separate the sides from an agreement; cooperation needed from both sides to reach a deal
[11:05] {dino} cooperation, as in what toppings for the lunch pizzas
[11:06] {thomcbell} what are the chances Pelozi has a meat topping - not only that she definitely dabs the pizza with a superabsorbent paper towel
[11:06] {dino} lol
[11:07] {thomcbell} a definite flag for potential spouses - both ways
01[11:09] {Threei}  (IL) Israel PM Netanyahu: Israel faces growing threat of cyber attacks from Iran
01[11:09] {Threei}  really?
01[11:09] {Threei}  that's what they are worried about?
[11:09] {scottie} What do you think of MDT now
01[11:10] {Threei}  .40 break looks legit short trigger
[11:10] {scottie} tks
01[11:10] {Threei}  (US) CNBC's John Harwood: A 60-90 days worth of cuts package being designed to replace the 'sequestration' program in Congress- Talks are expected to continue all day, any annoucement most likely won't come when the Senate resumes talks at 11ET. - Designing cuts that would get them to the debt ceiling debate later this year
01[11:10] {Threei}  beautiful
01[11:11] {Threei}  they just replace one crisis with another
[11:11] {dino} makes them feel important
[11:12] {dptl} btu .90 long?
01[11:13] {Threei}  looks like, yes
[11:14] {dptl} in .92
[11:14] {scottie} in too
[11:16] {dino} out wpi .46, +.41
[11:18] {cipher} wtg
01[11:19] {Threei}  nice
[11:23] {dino} ty
[11:24] {thomcbell} i am most likely gone for the rest of today - have a good new year everyone
[11:25] {dino} you too tbell
01[11:25] {Threei}  take care tbell, happoy new year
01[11:25] {Threei}  see you Wed
[11:25] {cipher} wpi s .76
[11:25] {scottie} tbell
[11:26] {scottie} in MDT .44 stop .51
[11:26] {cipher} cov wpi .69 +.07
[11:28] {cipher} ibm l .49
[11:30] {cipher} out .60 +.11
[11:30] {dino} c hl l .73
[11:34] {cipher} crzo l .00
[11:39] {scottie} btu stop .83
[11:40] {cipher} out crzo .10 +.10
01[11:41] {Threei}  BTU chews its way to 1:1
[11:41] {scottie} mdt out
[11:42] {scottie} btu half out
[11:46] {dptl} wheu...out half
01[11:57] {Threei}  (US) Main sticking point in fiscal cliff discussions said to be the sequester time frame; Republicans still want any delay in sequester to be offset by other budget cuts - financial press- Democrats seeking a 2 year delay in sequester (would cost $200B), with Republicans asking for 60-90 days
[12:03] {dptl} i am out btu
[12:04] {nemo}
01[12:05] {Threei}  NYSE volume 190M shares, about 24% below its three-month average; . - NASDAQ volume 510M shares, about 30% below its three-month average
01[12:13] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .40 break
[12:16] {nemo} o.k. c u next year. P&Q, don't let the door hit you on the way out...
01[12:17] {Threei}  take care nemo :)
[12:17] {scottie} nemo
[12:23] {scottie} fb stop .47 ?
[12:23] {dino} cya nemo
01[12:24] {Threei}  yes
[12:33] {dptl} in fb .39
01[12:40] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to make statement on fiscal cliff discussions at 13:30ET
01[12:40] {Threei}  headline football
[12:40] {dino} oh great, he'll drop us again
[12:40] {dptl} stopped fb
[12:40] {dino} out coh .69, +.44
[12:45] {scottie} out btu +.19 tks dp
[12:45] {scottie} first winner today
[12:45] {dptl} yw
01[12:47] {Threei}  did you skip FB short for 1:2 earlier?
[12:47] {scottie} yes
[12:48] {dino} out c .17, +.44
01[12:59] {Threei} Short Setup: GM  .20 break
01[12:59] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[13:01] {dptl} in .19
01[13:04] {Threei}  on a campain trail forever:
01[13:04] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to make statement on fiscal cliff discussions at 13:30ET; Will be joined by a group of "middle class Americans"
01[13:04] {Threei}  do they grab those on the street?
01[13:05] {Threei}  - News reports suggest that McConnell will be briefing GOP colleagues this afternoon about the broad outline of a deal discussed with VP Biden (**Note: Earlier reports suggested that Senator McConnell was scheduled to meet with colleagues at 14:00ET). Several news outlets report that the length of the sequester delay is still a sticking point, with the White House seeking a one year delay of sequester cuts and Republicans only willing to delay them 60-90 days (within the timeframe of the upcoming the debt ceiling negotiation).
01[13:05] {Threei}  - Reportedly GOP aides say the majority Republicans may be willing to support a tentative deal that would include a permanent extension of middle class tax cuts with a $450K income threshold, raising $600B in revenue. Under the tentative deal, dividends and capital gains would be taxed at 23.8% for high income households, the estate tax would rise to 40% from 35%, child tax credits and college tax credits would be extended for five years. It is also said to include a "doc fix" to prevent Medicare payments to doctors being slashed in 2013
[13:05] {dptl} no fill
01[13:06] {Threei}  trail to .21 nonetheless
01[13:06] {Threei}  no reason to lose on this trade
[13:11] {scottie} out, didn't take my bid either... so close
[13:11] {dptl} stopped...cant beleive ididt get filled there
[13:21] {dptl} hal .15 long?
01[13:22] {Threei}  do you really want to take position a few min before Obama appearance?
[13:22] {dptl} oh...
[13:23] {dptl} right will wait
[13:23] {dino} lately obummer has been tanking the markets
01[13:24] {Threei}  judging from a group of "middle class Americans" he drags with him on the podium, it will be another hot air speech
[13:24] {dino} if he starts complaining, look for shorts
01[13:29] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  34 break is my idea
01[13:29] {Threei}  ugh... triggers prematurely
[13:29] {dptl} in
[13:30] {dino} fwiw he's usually 15-20 minutes late to a speech
[13:31] {dptl} am i in early?
01[13:31] {Threei}  who knows...
01[13:31] {Threei}  I hoped for it to trigger when he starts speaking
[13:32] {dptl} oh boy...ok stop .10
03[13:36] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[13:40] {dino} late as usual
01[13:40] {Threei}  still dragging in those middle class americans from the street, I guess
[13:41] {dino}
[13:41] {dptl} stopped......this holydays trading not good for me
[13:41] {dino} w/respect dp, you seem to be pushing
01[13:41] {Threei}  very much so
[13:42] {dino} imo thin trading=slower entries, less trading
01[13:42] {Threei}  ok, group is on the scene
[13:43] {dino} bunch of union workers
[13:45] {dino} lol they are all shorter than him
01[13:46] {Threei}  now FCX works
01[13:51] {Threei}  these people behind him are totally starstruck
[13:52] {_furthers} i think I am in
01[13:52] {Threei}  you sure are
01[13:52] {Threei}  dp... this FCX move is what I had in mind
[13:52] {dino} its staged, all of them are small to ,ake him look bigger
[13:53] {dino} welcome furthers
[13:53] {dptl} ya i see that...just didt get right idea i guess
[13:53] {dino} partial fill wpi l .53
01[13:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  GM  .35 break
01[13:53] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[13:56] {Threei}  ok... spech is done, slow creep-up should resume
01[13:57] {Threei}  let's try to partial GM in two stages, one is just under .45 and another above .50
01[14:00] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 305M shares, about 13% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 870M shares, about 19% below its three-month average
01[14:02] {Threei}  no strong push over .40 so far...
01[14:02] {Threei}  stop is very tight though, so willing to wait
06[14:03] * Threei kicks GM in the rear bumper
01[14:07] {Threei}  ok... first target hit
01[14:07] {Threei}  stop to .34
[14:07] {cipher} wpi l .33
[14:07] {scottie} didn't take my offer at .44
01[14:08] {Threei}  no, I hit .43
[14:08] {dptl} i took .42
01[14:08] {Threei}  learned lesson from the one that bounced 1 cent from tagert
01[14:09] {Threei}  today rules are a bit more laxed than usually
01[14:09] {Threei}  and with such tight stop allowing for double lot, don't want to let it slip through the fingers
01[14:10] {Threei}  let's see now if we can get new high
01[14:19] {Threei}  OK... push again, GM
01[14:20] {Threei}  even though you are no-good government-financed producer of crappy autos, it doesn't mean we can't profit from you
[14:21] {cipher} out coh -.08
[14:22] {scottie} out .47 +.10
[14:22] {scottie} tks Vad
01[14:22] {Threei}  yw
[14:31] {dptl} out .50 ty
01[14:32] {Threei}  out .54
01[14:32] {Threei}  whe
01[14:32] {Threei}  w
01[14:32] {Threei}  according to a plan
01[14:32] {Threei}  min risk, decent move
[14:33] {cipher} out wpi .54 +.21
01[14:33] {Threei}  wtg
[14:34] {cipher} ty
[14:39] {dptl} hes?
[14:44] {scottie} cbs l .90 ?
01[14:44] {Threei}  couple min of consolidation for HES, and break will be interesting
01[14:44] {Threei}  CBS, late
01[14:45] {Threei}  not liking it very much either
[14:46] {dptl} .50long hes
[14:48] {dptl} if holds .40
[14:49] {dptl} in
01[14:49] {Threei}  (US) SEnator McConnell: WE are very very close to a deal
[14:50] {scottie} entered on the puulback at .49
01[14:50] {Threei}  (US) Republican Aide: There is no Republican support for the unexpected White House proposal to raise taxes further to avoid spending cuts - financial pressSeparately the Senate floor debate on fiscal cliff continues: - Senator Hatch (R-UT): The fiscal cliff negotiations are "in flux." - Senator Mikulski (D-MD): The automatic sequester cuts should be delayed by a year or two. - Senator McCain (R-AZ): Obama's speech this afternoon was an inappropriate cheerleading event that ridiculed Republicans. His remarks will antagonize members of the House. Agree we do need a deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff, but Presidential leadership is lacking. - Senator Graham (R-SC): President Obama won round one and got his tax rate increase, but he's right that the debt ceiling debate will be another round. - Senator Isakson (R-GA): the big battle is yet to come during the debt ceiling debate.
[14:52] {dino} out wpi .65, +.12
[14:53] {dino} calling it a day. decent one, but this whipping around on news is messed up
01[14:53] {Threei}  yeah, we should get a rest from this till nerxt debt ceiling debate
[14:53] {scottie} dino
01[14:53] {Threei}  happy new year dino, see you wed!
[14:54] {dino} happy new year all, keep it safe
[14:54] {dptl} happy new year
[14:57] {dptl} out half hes
[14:58] {scottie} same here
01[14:58] {Threei}  good job guys
01[14:58] {Threei}  fixing a day trade by trade
[14:59] {dptl} yea..fixed a bit
[15:01] {scottie} +.21 tks dp
[15:01] {scottie} I am on the + side now
[15:01] {dptl} out
[15:01] {dptl} yw
[15:02] {dptl} gross + ,but net a bit down
[15:03] {scottie} same
[15:03] {dptl} but much better :)
[15:04] {dptl} will get them next year :)
[15:05] {scottie} ATI l .60 ?
01[15:06] {Threei}  hmmm
01[15:07] {Threei}  not sure on this one
[15:07] {scottie} ok tks
[15:08] {scottie} GM l .90 ?
01[15:08] {Threei}  I am not partial to longs anymore
[15:08] {scottie} ok
01[15:08] {Threei}  would be looking for short trades now
[15:11] {dptl} mpc .80 sh?
[15:11] {dptl} ah late
[15:12] {dptl} anf .80sh?
01[15:13] {Threei}  so so
01[15:14] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .25 break
01[15:14] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[15:16] {dptl} in
[15:17] {dptl} .24
[15:17] {scottie} .235
[15:24] {dptl} just die now lvs
[15:26] {dptl} half out
01[15:26] {Threei}  :)
01[15:26] {Threei}  back in black?
[15:26] {scottie} half out
[15:27] {dptl} almost about flat now :)
[15:28] {scottie} a bit on the plus side
[15:32] {scottie} more winners than loosers, and winners 50% bigger than loosers
[15:32] {scottie} I should do that more often :)
01[15:33] {Threei}  lol
[15:36] {dptl} stop to .21
[15:36] {scottie} good idea
[15:37] {dptl} just die lvs lol
[15:38] {scottie} where's Vad when we need him
[15:38] {dptl} ya that 2x4 would help
01[15:38] {Threei}  lol
01[15:41] {Threei}  there
01[15:41] {Threei}  happy now?
[15:42] {scottie} out +.18 tks Vad :)
[15:42] {dptl} out more...we did it we did it lol...ty Vad
01[15:42] {Threei}  :)
01[15:43] {Threei}
[15:44] {dptl} nice :)where is the rest ?
01[15:45] {Threei}  on my FB page...
01[15:45] {Threei}  will post them on the bl.og when more are ready
01[15:45] {Threei}  OK guys, let's finish the year on a nice profitable note
01[15:46] {Threei}  thank you all, have a nice cozy celebration,
01[15:46] {Threei}  happy new year, and I'll see you on Wed!
[15:46] {scottie} see you next year
[15:46] {dptl} happy New Year all.....
[16:00] {cipher} happy New Year
01[16:00] {Threei}  you too cipher!
[16:03] {robbers} Happy New Year, see you'all on Wednesday.  Take Care.