Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Jan 16 2013

Small stops, bigger wins - a small but profitable day overall


Session Time: Wed Jan 16 00:00:00 2013
[09:10] {goryl} gm
01[09:11] {Threei}  morning goryl
[09:12] {cipher} gm
01[09:12] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:23] {jdetente} gm all
01[09:23] {Threei}  jd :)
[09:26] {dptl} gm
01[09:26] {Threei}  dp :)
01[09:28] {Threei}  FB nosedive
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .15 break hl
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:32] {dino} gm. running late, 4" snow last night
01[09:32] {Threei}  wow
01[09:33] {Threei}  first cherry blooms here...
[09:33] {thomcbell} rimm obviously has the answer to equity bulls
01[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {thomcbell} for rather
[09:34] {cipher} +.18 FB thx
01[09:34] {Threei}  yw
01[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .25 break hl
01[09:34] {Threei}  FB 1:2, out
[09:35] {dptl} out fb ty
01[09:35] {Threei}  :)
01[09:35] {Threei}  SLW stop .33
[09:37] {cipher} mnst l .24
01[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  WFC  35 break
[09:37] {cipher} fisv l .97
01[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .95
01[09:38] {Threei}  SLW stop to .31
[09:40] {cipher} srpt l.87
[09:41] {cipher} out .18
[09:41] {cipher} out fisv .12 +.15
[09:42] {dino} gj
[09:42] {dino} gj
[09:43] {cipher} out mnst .40 +.16
[09:44] {cipher} ebay l .10
[09:44] {dptl} dg .86 long?
01[09:45] {Threei}  out SLW
[09:45] {cipher} out ebay .30 +.20
[09:45] {dptl} invalidated dg
[09:47] {cipher} IBB L .02
01[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .20 break hl
01[09:49] {Threei}  1:1 but I doubt you could get
[09:49] {thomcbell} long setup dell 12.72 break if holding 12.62
[09:49] {thomcbell} a bit late
01[09:50] {Threei}  DELL... I dunno about long on it, analysts put buyout price at 13-13.50
01[09:50] {Threei}  no room for run
[09:50] {thomcbell} ok thanks
01[09:50] {Threei}  CAT 1:2... grrr
[09:51] {jdetente} we're still in WFC?
[09:51] {dino} ann hl l .95
01[09:51] {Threei}  no
01[09:51] {Threei}  lost .95
[09:52] {jdetente} ok thx
01[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  BA  .40 break hl
01[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:55] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:57] {dino} out ann +.21, +.26
[09:58] {thomcbell} BA makes me think of the Charles Grodin scene from  Midnight Run when he flips out about "these things go down, its too big"
01[09:58] {Threei}  lol
[09:59] {dptl} dg .40 short?
[09:59] {cipher} PENN L .05
01[09:59] {Threei}  frikin BA
01[09:59] {Threei}  no
01[09:59] {Threei}  oh, and frikin CAT
[10:01] {cipher} out IBB .24 +.22
[10:01] {cipher} gpor l .83
[10:01] {thomcbell} lvs looks like a short setup here 51.92 break if holding 52
[10:03] {cipher} veco l .58
[10:05] {thomcbell} and splk looks two sided - 32.93 or 32.85
[10:05] {dptl} alny .30 long?
01[10:05] {Threei}  hl
[10:05] {dino} ggc hl l .36
[10:06] {cipher} out penn .16+.11
[10:06] {goryl} u taking it vad?
[10:07] {thomcbell} lvs invalidated
01[10:07] {Threei}  nah, not my cap of tea
01[10:07] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[10:08] {dino} bco hl l .01
01[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .20 break
01[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:10] {thomcbell} splk 1:2 on short
[10:11] {dino} gj
[10:11] {goryl} not shorable rimm
[10:11] {dptl} rimm not available
01[10:12] {Threei}  grrr
[10:12] {jdetente} I got it
[10:15] {cipher} ggc +.26 thx dino
[10:16] {dptl} clf  36 sh?
[10:16] {cipher} veco stopped .56 -.01
01[10:16] {Threei}  yes, hl
01[10:16] {Threei}  nice setup
[10:17] {dino} ggc to .67
[10:17] {dino} out ggc +.31
[10:17] {cipher} gpor stopped .76 -.07
[10:21] {thomcbell} splk 1:4
[10:21] {cipher} nflx l .04
[10:21] {thomcbell} stop to 32.51
[10:22] {cipher} out .nflx .35 +.31
[10:23] {thomcbell} cleaning up rest of splk here at 32.40
01[10:23] {Threei}  RIMM is getting there for you, jd
01[10:23] {Threei}  wtg tbell, beautiful play
[10:24] {cipher} AFFY L .22
[10:25] {thomcbell} interested in a long setup a bit further down from here
[10:25] {thomcbell} in splk
[10:25] {jdetente} got my scalp
[10:25] {jdetente} ty!
[10:25] {dino} clro hl s .77
[10:26] {cipher} out affy .25 +.03
01[10:26] {Threei}  yw
01[10:26] {Threei}  1:2 on horizon
[10:27] {jdetente} I took .15
[10:28] {nemo} wow a .70 range in tna...wake me up later
[10:28] {goryl} vad, u in clf?
[10:28] {cipher} LQDT L .65
01[10:29] {Threei}  yes bit it's annoying
[10:30] {cipher} out lqdt .77 +.12
[10:31] {thomcbell} darn splk
[10:32] {thomcbell} i guess that was the play 32.50 long break
[10:32] {cipher} SPLK S.92
[10:32] {cipher} COV .82 +.
[10:33] {cipher} thx tbell
[10:34] {thomcbell} i got out of that dell flat earlier - thanks VG
01[10:34] {Threei}  :)
[10:34] {cipher} splk l .81
[10:35] {cipher} out .99
[10:36] {cipher} done for the day
[10:36] {cipher} cya
01[10:37] {Threei}  take care cipher
[10:41] {dino} cya
01[10:43] {Threei}  finally
01[10:43] {Threei}  CLF
01[10:43] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:43] {Threei}  took its sweet time, eh
01[10:48] {Threei}  out at 1:2
01[10:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[10:54] {Threei}  If holds  30
[10:56] {thomcbell} looks two sided possibly Vad
01[10:58] {Threei}  could be, yeah
01[10:58] {Threei}  SPY drop
[11:00] {thomcbell} all things considered FB is holding the hype rally ok
[11:02] {dino} adtn spike
[11:04] {goryl} vad, u short fb?
01[11:06] {Threei}  yes
01[11:06] {Threei}  but with .06 dtop
[11:06] {goryl} ok
01[11:06] {Threei}  keeping it tigher than usually
[11:08] {dino} ann hl l .52
01[11:18] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 break
[11:19] {dino} added mflx calls
01[11:19] {Threei}  frikin FB
01[11:19] {Threei}  had to keep usual stop, eh?
01[11:20] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:20] {Threei}  nemo, you paper shows my backyard: http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/travel/2013/01/13/steeped-snow-vancouver-island-mount-washington-offers-tons-family-skiing/VcgSSFlTtQXuoJgQgF598O/story.html
[11:21] {nemo} our version of Pravda
01[11:22] {Threei}  Over the next 20 yrs, North America will replace the Mideast as the traditional source of the world's oil supply." -BP's Ruhl
01[11:22] {Threei}  The U.S. could surpass Saudi Arabia by year-end as the world's biggest oil producer, says BP. By 2014 latest.
[11:22] {dino} we can only hope
01[11:23] {Threei}  Although the record amount of hot air will still come from the White House
01[11:29] {Threei}  FB... grrrrrr
01[11:35] {Threei}  Facebook Marketing Analyst: There are concerns that Facebook's new Graph Search feature will drive users to "unlike" items and remove tags from content - AdAge- Facebook users may not be happy that things posted years ago which may be embarrassing or not reflective of who you are now can be turned up in search
01[11:36] {Threei}  talk about unintended consequences
[11:41] {dptl} pay .50 short?
01[11:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .40 break
01[11:42] {Threei}  PAY, yes
[11:44] {dino} tumi spike
[11:45] {dino} hl s .90
[11:48] {goryl} vad, u taking pay?
01[11:48] {Threei}  yes, I like it
01[11:49] {Threei}  esoecially if SPY drops
[11:49] {nemo} .22-.28 likely the bottom for cat
[11:51] {dino} tumi stop
01[11:53] {Threei}  out CAT
01[11:53] {Threei}  market weakens
[11:53] {dino} reload s tumi .40
[11:54] {dptl} missed pay
[11:55] {dino} rnf blood
01[11:56] {Threei}  RGR drops as Obama speaks
[12:02] {dptl} clf .80 short?
01[12:04] {Threei}  a bit too far from there
[12:05] {dptl} agresive .85 break may be?
01[12:06] {Threei}  with stop .91... why not
01[12:06] {Threei}  wait
01[12:06] {Threei}  see bid at .84?
[12:06] {dptl} ye
01[12:06] {Threei}  better short when it gets hit
[12:06] {thomcbell} FB annoying
[12:06] {dptl} ok
[12:06] {dptl} in
[12:07] {goryl} u gong for it vad?
[12:07] {goryl} going
01[12:07] {Threei}  nah
01[12:07] {Threei}  a bit too pushy for me
01[12:07] {Threei}  dp likes to push
[12:08] {thomcbell} expecting a bottom here on FB between here and 29.50 - waiting for a long setup to emerge
01[12:08] {Threei}  (US) Pres Obama announces proposals on reducing gun violence, including criminal background checks for all gun purchases, reinstatement of assult weapon ban- To make 23 executive orders. - To propose 10-round limit on magazines. - To provide $4.0B in funding for up to 15K police officers. - Calls on DoJ to maximize effort to prosecute gun crimes. - Will ask for studies to evaluate impacts of video games on children - All gun sales (private included) to require background checks - Requests Congress reinstate assault weapons ban and to institute restrictions on magazines to hold 10 rounds. Seeks to ban armor piercing rounds
[12:08] {dptl} is that a bad set up?
[12:09] {dino} spend spend spend
01[12:09] {Threei}  bad, no...
01[12:09] {Threei}  personal preference pushiness wise
[12:10] {dptl} you mean yime of the day ?
[12:10] {dptl} time
01[12:10] {Threei}  both times of the day and chart
[12:27] {dptl} half out
[12:27] {jdetente} scalped CLF with you. Thanks!
[12:27] {dptl} :)
[12:28] {thomcbell} FB long setup 29.60 break if holding 29.53
01[12:29] {Threei}  now that the play is over, allow me a few words, to answer the question [12:08] {dptl} is that a bad set up?
[12:29] {dptl} was just about to ask :)
01[12:29] {Threei}  don't view trading as exact science... there is no 100% answers, it's an indidualized endeavor
01[12:30] {Threei}  there are good setups,
01[12:30] {Threei}  there are bad setups,
01[12:30] {Threei}  and there are setups that are good or bad depending on your personality
01[12:30] {Threei}  your sdtyle, your prefernces, your pbjectives
01[12:31] {Threei}  all of us are not the same,
01[12:31] {Threei}  some prefer many aggressive plays with many small stops and big if rare wins
01[12:31] {Threei}  some prefer more conservative approach where stops are fewer, even if bigger
01[12:32] {Threei}  reread once again the blog article on agresssiveness
01[12:32] {Threei}  think of these things in such terms, and you will make a distinction between objectively good or bad setups
01[12:32] {Threei}  and setups that are good or bad for YOU
01[12:33] {Threei}  do I make sense?
[12:33] {jdetente} Makes sense to me. ty :)
01[12:33] {Threei}  :)
01[12:34] {Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2007/07/how-aggressive-are-you.html
01[12:36] {Threei}  to make a perfect example, look at some of dino/cipher plays
01[12:36] {Threei}  good ones?
01[12:36] {Threei}  results wise, obviosuly
01[12:36] {Threei}  can anyone of us handle those?
01[12:36] {Threei}  obviously not, they are highly tailored for a very distinctive style of trading
01[12:37] {Threei}  with risk parameters so drastically different, most of traders would have their stomachs turned inside out just looking at those
[12:38] {thomcbell} FB 1:1
01[12:39] {Threei}  wtg
[12:40] {thomcbell} going by the book - but using a 29.63 stop on my other half right now
[12:41] {dino} gj tbell
[12:42] {dptl} thats where i get confused..... , some how you able to tell the difference between set ups even thought two set ups look the same, and i can't figure that out yet
[12:43] {dino} tumi last try s .75
01[12:46] {Threei}  you'd have to show me two that look the same to you, so I could comment
[12:47] {dptl} out some more clf here
[12:52] {dptl} lets take that clf set up ....80 break short with .90 stop.....was it time of the day that you did't like?
[12:53] {dptl} or something else?
01[12:53] {Threei}  it was near .90, full range from the trigger,
01[12:53] {Threei}  imagine it'd drop fast (in one candle) into .80 and break it - would you still like the setup?
01[12:54] {Threei}  thus, answer was:
01[12:54] {Threei}  12:02] {dptl} clf .80 short?
01[12:54] {Threei}  [12:04] {Threei} a bit too far from there
[12:54] {dptl} no ..if it dropped fast
01[12:54] {Threei}  as in: can't tell without seeing how it gets there
[12:55] {dptl} i see
[13:04] {dptl} will keep .68 stop for last clf
[13:10] {dptl} out
[13:10] {dino} gj
[13:11] {dptl} ty
[13:11] {thomcbell} fb out
[13:16] {dptl} is that DB on clf now?
01[13:17] {Threei}  if holding .55, yes
[13:17] {dptl} so we can try .60 break long?
01[13:18] {Threei}  as an aggressive entry
01[13:18] {Threei}  .65 as regular
[13:18] {dptl} ok
01[13:21] {Threei}  .55 short is valid setup also
[13:21] {dptl} with .61 stop?
01[13:22] {Threei}  yeah
[13:24] {dptl} in .55
[13:24] {dptl} sh
01[13:24] {Threei}  (US) House Majority Leader Cantor (R-VA): House of Reps may consider legislation to overturn pay increase for Federal employees
01[13:24] {Threei}  why did they get increase in a first place?
01[13:26] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Fed Beige Book survey of regional economic activity to be released at 14:00ET- The report will include data from surveys of the period between Mid-November and early January. The Nov Beige Book revised the headline for activity as expanding at a "measured pace" (vs. "expanding modestly" prior) and noted that Hurricane Sandy had caused weaker growth in some regions
[13:27] {dptl} stopped
01[13:28] {Threei}  ok, now I have to ask
01[13:28] {Threei}  why short .55 with a lot of bids?
01[13:28] {Threei}  why not .55 break, or at least some meltdown?
[13:28] {dptl} it broke
01[13:29] {Threei}  hmmm... I must have missed it then
01[13:29] {Threei}  didn't see .55 bid broken
[13:29] {dptl} look it even says lod .34
[13:29] {dptl} .54
[13:29] {thomcbell} splk long setup 32.33 break if holding 32.20 - half lot
01[13:30] {Threei}  it actually broke the bid on level 2?
[13:32] {dptl} ye .55 was gone and i punch and got .55 at .54 it was just one or few trades, must be buch of hidden orders at .55
[13:32] {thomcbell} splk invalidated
[13:33] {thomcbell} still watching for another setup
[13:34] {dptl} coh .35
[13:34] {dptl} ah late
[13:36] {dino} clsn drop and halt
01[13:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .60 break
01[13:43] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[13:44] {dino} ? its at .85
01[13:44] {Threei}  grrr
01[13:45] {Threei} Short Setup: DB  .60 break
01[13:45] {Threei}  close letters
01[13:47] {Threei}  Invalidated
[13:49] {dptl} fb.90 long?
01[13:49] {Threei}  half lot
01[13:49] {Threei}  worth a try
01[13:51] {Threei}  guys, gotta drive my daughter to airport
01[13:51] {Threei}  will be back in about 40-50 min
01[13:52] {Threei}  don't short BRK.A while I am away
[13:52] {dino} cov tumi .40, +.35
[13:53] {dptl} in fb .91
[14:05] {dptl} stop to .84 fb
[14:13] {dptl} out half
[14:19] {dptl} stop to .94
[14:32] {dino} ssi
[14:49] {dino} ssi s .53
[14:52] {dptl} out fb
[14:52] {dino} cov ssi .40, +.13
01[14:54] {Threei}  back
01[14:55] {Threei}  I see FB worked
[14:55] {dptl} ye
01[14:56] {Threei}  hmmm... even BRK.A short would have worked while I was away
[15:00] {nemo} wtf hlf
[15:02] {dptl} cog .40 short?
01[15:02] {Threei}  hl
01[15:03] {Threei}  14:50[HLF] Carl Icahn is said to have told other investors that he has taken a stake in Herbalife after Pershing's Ackman made his short sale presentation in mid-Dec - financial press
[15:05] {dptl} fdo .40 short?
01[15:06] {Threei}  no read
01[15:06] {Threei}  50/50
01[15:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .90 break
01[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .85
01[15:25] {Threei}  Apple Inc Sales of Nexus tablet said to have exceeded sales of the iPad during the holiday shopping season in Japan - Nikkei News
01[15:25] {Threei}  - Japan market for tablets said to have expanded in 2012 and will continue to rise in 2013.
01[15:25] {Threei}  - Google's lower-priced devices exceeded iPad's 40.1% market share, which lost its top position in tablets for the first time since going on sale in Japan markets in May 2010
[15:37] {dptl} vlo .70 short?
01[15:38] {Threei}  VLO, yes
01[15:40] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .95 break
01[15:41] {Threei}  If holds  30
[15:42] {thomcbell} long setup splk 31.96 break if holding 31.83
[15:45] {thomcbell} splk invalidated
01[15:47] {Threei}  FB baby
01[15:47] {Threei}  half out
[15:47] {thomcbell} splk hehe
01[15:47] {Threei}  scalpers feel free to close it in full
[15:48] {jdetente} Nice trade. Ty!
01[15:48] {Threei}  :)
[15:51] {dino} trlg s .31cov trlg .01, +.30
01[15:51] {Threei}  wtg
[15:51] {dino} ty
[15:53] {dptl} gn all see ya tomorrow
01[15:53] {Threei}  take care dp
01[15:57] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
01[15:57] {Threei}  have a good evening
01[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {thomcbell} good night
[16:01] {dino} gn all
[16:02] {jdetente} gn everyone