Saturday, January 26, 2013

Nemo's Findings week of 01/27/2013

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Groundhog week...up, up, and away....Eco news was neutral to positive.  There was some stink about the housing numbers being bad, but the previous months were revised upward significantly, and the bad numbers for the month were attributed to lack of supply.  So, the markets shrugged off "bad" news.  

Thursday and Friday's tops were held in check by the confluence of the weekly R2 and yearly R1 in IWM  and the weekly R3 in the financials.  However, they appear to be forming rising wedges, and actually went higher after the close.  It would be reasonable to expect a gap up on Monday.   

The week that was...


The week that is...well before I do that, where might we be going?  Talkin' the close on Friday, the spy touched the 100% extension of the Nov '12 low to Dec. '12 high.  The projection begins from the Dec. '12 low to today.  The IWM reached a similar extension created from the June '2 low to the Sep. '12 high projected from the Nov. '12 low. So fib traders will start thinking about profit taking.  The IWM is already at all time highs so there's no overhead stops waiting. It's just a matter of when people decide to hit the exits.

The spy has 152.09, 154.50 and 156.70 as swing highs on the weekly to go. No reason to think we don't get there.

Here are the weekly financials, looks like a long to me ...

In the good old days of "normal" markets tech usually sold off after Xmas.  As you can see, on the monthly, we're at the 50% retracement of the millennial debacle, so, tech might get a bit wishy washy here providing a headwind.

And here is a look at bonds... looks like 116 could be in the cards.

 So, that leads to the week that is...