Monday, February 25, 2013


***COMING THIS WEEK***  by TradeTheNews


- UK Gilts and banks are expected to be in focus on Monday's session, after Moody's cut the UK's sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1. There has been ongoing press debate about whether or not the downgrade has already been priced into Gilts. Additionally, following the move by Moody's, various UK press reports suggested that Chancellor Osborne could be pressured to relax his fiscal consolidation plan. Dealers are now expected to focus on the March 20th budget statement for further clarity on the UK's fiscal outlook, as the country's sovereign outlook remains negative at S&P and Fitch. On the growth front, the second estimate of the UK's Q4 GDP is due to be released on Wed Feb 27th. DMO is not schedule to hold any bond auctions this week.

- Italian elections: According to press reports the turnout for the elections may be lower than expected, amid reports that a large turnout could benefit Berlusconi and Grillo. An article in the FT suggested that many are expecting a close outcome. The polls are due to close at 3 pm (local time) on Monday and the results could come on Monday night or early Tuesday.

- BoJ Governor Position: Press reports have suggested that the head of the Asia Development Bank Haruhiko Kuroda is believed to be the frontrunner for the BoJ governor position. An official announcement could come later this week. According to prior reports, Kuroda has been a proponent of aggressive easing measures. Outgoing BoJ Gov Shirakawa is due to step down on March 19th.

- Fed Chair Bernanke is due to give his semi-annual economic testimony before Senate and House committees on Feb 26-27th, amid recent calls from some Fed officials for the QE program to be altered if economic conditions permit. Bernanke is also due to speak on Friday, March 1st. In comments made by Bernanke thus far in 2013 he has maintained that the US economy and labor market are recovering at only a slow pace. Additionally, Bernanke has downplayed any inflation risks related to the Fed's easing measures.

- US fiscal debate: In terms of the US sequester, President Obama is still said to be open to negotiations related to the matter, while Republicans have been less flexible (FT). The sequester-related fiscal cuts are due to take effect, starting on March 1.

***Looking Ahead***
Mon, Feb 25th
US: US Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index, US Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
Notable US Earnings: Before open: CTB, DNDN, FE, HTZ, LOW ; After the close: CZR, EROC, KND, OKE, OKS
Asia: Japan PM Abe to announce BoJ Gov selection any day this week; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
Notable Asia Earnings: NTT Data, MGX.AU
Europe: Italian Elections, UK Bond issuance
Notable EU Earnings: Associated British Foods, Bovis Homes, Dialight, Domino's Pizza, Hiscox, Pearson, Persimmon, Petra Diamonds, Senior, Sportingbet, Thorntons

Tues, Feb 26th
US: Bernanke speaks before the Senate, US Feb Consumer Confidence, US Jan New Home Sales, US Dec S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Notable US Earnings: Before open: AZO, CBRL, ECL, EME, EXPD, HD, HFC, M, PCS, RSH, SKS, SRE, TDS, THC, USM; After the close: DWA, EIX, FSLR, LYV, PCLN, RRC, SPN, TIVO, WFT
Asia: New Zealand Jan Trade Balance
Notable Asia Earnings: none seen
Europe: Riksbank Minutes
Notable EU Earnings: Croda International, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Devro, Elementis, GKN, Goals Soccer Centres, Provident Financial, Redrow, Robert Walters, RSM Tenon, Whitbread, Wilmington, Fresenius, MedioBanca, BASF AG, Vivendi Universal, Lukoil OAO

Wed, Feb 27th
US: Bernanke speaks before the House, US Jan Durable Goods Orders; Durables Ex-Transportation, US Jan Pending Home Sales
Notable US Earnings: AAPL shareholder meeting, Before open: AES, BYD, CNP, DANG, HII, JOY, KOF, NRG, RRC. TGT, TJX; After the close: BWC, CBI, FMX, GEF, GRPN, JCP, LINTA, LTD, MYL, PLL, RJET
Asia: Australia Q4 Private Capital Expenditure; Private Sector Credit, New Zealand Feb ANZ Business Confidence; ANZ Activity Outlook
Notable Asia Earnings: Orascom Construction
Europe: Draghi speaks in Munich, France INSEE Consumer Confidence, EU Money Supply, Italy Business Confidence, UK GDP, EU Economic Sentiment
Notable EU Earnings: Anheuser-Busch InBev, Bouygues SA, Ingenico, Man Group, Capital Shopping, Centrica, Henderson, Interserve, ITV, Oxford Biomedica, Vesuvius, Weir

Thurs, Feb 28th
US: US Q4 Second Reading GDP; GDP Price Index, US Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, US Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager
Notable US Earnings: Before open: BBY, BWC, CVC, KSS, PLL, SHLD, VC, WEN, WNR ; After the close: CRM, GPS, KOG, MCP, MDR, TEG, UHS
Asia: China Feb HSBC Manufacturing PMI, China Feb Manufacturing PMI, India Q4 Quarterly GDP
Notable Asia Earnings: none seen
Europe: Spain Consumer Prices, Germany Unemployment, EU HICP, Germany Consumer Prices
Notable EU Earnings: Aeroports de Paris, Bayer AG, Bankia, GDF Suez, Hochtief AG, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Telekom AG, Seadrill, Areva, Thales SA, Luxottica Group Spa, Kier, Man Group, Reed Elsevier

Fri, Feb 29th
US: Canada Q4 Quarterly GDP Annualized; Gross Domestic Product, US Jan PCE Deflator; PCE Core, US Feb Final U of Michigan Confidence, US Feb ISM Manufacturing; ISM Prices Paid
Notable US Earnings: Before open: FWLT, MGA, NA.CA, POM; After the close: none seen
Asia: India Feb Markit Manufacturing PMI
Notable Asia Earnings: none seen
Europe: Germany retail sales, Ireland PMI Manufacturing, EU, UK PMI, Italy Consumer Prices, UK Mortgage Approvals
Notable EU Earnings: Lloyds Banking, Rightmove, Taylor Wimpey, William Hill, WPP