Saturday, March 9, 2013

Nemo's Findings, week of 3/11/2013

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  

The week that was:

As you can see for Monday  we were basically range bound where the top was inhibited seemingly by the QR2 on IWM.  Action then descended into the lunch hour where the SPY bottomed in the confluence between the -27.2 of the November low and the YR1, while the IWM bottomed at the 23.6 of the December 31st low, at the same time FAS was forming a bottom at the day's open.  All different time frames or level types, but hit them all at the same time.  After that, the day became a trend day finishing at the highs.

Here's what I was looking at when it bottomed today:

As you can see, there are bullish hammers at the bottom in the IWM and SPY.  In FAS it was a bullish engulfing. It's noteworthy that really good trades show up in somnolent days and often at lunchtime.

Tuesday in the pre-market we eclipsed the highs for the year in the SPY and the DIA...Europe was up BIG! and stayed that way.  The Dow hit an all time nominal high.  What more is there to say, onward and upward, although, some pullback here might be expected.  Same thing happened at lunch-time today also, finnies IWM and SPY bottomed.  There is now significant support at the 153.70-153.90 area.

And the unemployment numbers kept the markets going higher on Thursday, but we had one of the narrowest ranges in a long time (this frickin' font crap-sorry).  

Anyway, Friday was the jobs report, which was the day after we found out all but one financial institution passed the financial stress test.  Btw...fine print on the stress test:  it was for a mild-moderate recession.  There is a 2nd part to the test to be published next Thursday.  Look at how strong the trend was starting from Tuesday, and accelerated on Friday.  Now, in typical bullmarket fashion, the market bottomed in the morning and then began to grind up.  It did sell off a little after the close, but not sure that means anything.  Having said that...

This is the list of tracking stocks I follow.  Notice who finished at the bottom today, down 2.9%?  The Vampire Squid-the canary in the coal mine-GS.  Who finished at the top?  The Redheaded step-child of the financials-Citi.  Monday could be interesting, but it's BTFD! until it isn't.  

O.K here's next week.  Oh, the yellow fibonacci line is a symmetrical extension of the 12/31 low to 2/19 high placed at the low of the last retrace low on 2/26 .  Since we're in pretty rarefied air up here, I've placed it in to see where price action might go on this run up.  Notice , where SPY topped out-the confluence of the Monthly R2, and the 50% extension.  Noticed where FAS topped out-the 38.2 line (which is actually the 61.8 extension  (100-38.2=61.8)  ;-) :