Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Apr 09 2013

Not our day, as whatever worked was limited to scalps, and most of setups had no follow through. Last few trades worked but still left day in negative territory.

Session Time: Tue Apr 09 00:00:00 2013
[00:35] {george01} hey guys
[08:14] {nemo} Booknight kills me
01[09:06] {Threei}  I guess it's time to wake up...
[09:08] {cipher} gm
01[09:08] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:19] {dino} gm
01[09:20] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:20] {Will49} gm
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
[09:20] {backman} gm
01[09:20] {Threei}  bman :)
01[09:22] {Threei}  what's with sudden swan dive
[09:22] {nemo} they've been pishing it up all morning, now to shear some sheep
01[09:23] {Threei}  LVS is about flat to reddish in a strong open
[09:25] {nemo} hlf halted
01[09:25] {Threei}  news pending
[09:26] {ese} morning..........Slovenia next I see
01[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:26] {Threei}  yes... we called that
[09:26] {jdetente} morngin all
[09:26] {ese} mormgin
01[09:26] {Threei}  jd :)
[09:26] {jdetente} morning lol
01[09:26] {Threei}  during Cyprus crisis, all of a sudden someone of EU officials said "Slovenia won't be next Cyprus"
01[09:27] {Threei}  which was dead giveaway
[09:27] {Alexs} gm
01[09:27] {Threei}  alex :)
[09:27] {Les} huh slovenia already?
[09:27] {Les} gm
[09:28] {thomcbell} jcp johnson out
[09:28] {ese} worlds in great shape don't you think..........tax evaders.....credit debacles....Stephen harper and the Royal Bank .......awesome......this is what traders need..volitility
[09:28] {thomcbell} that could be a cookie one
01[09:28] {Threei}  les :)
[09:28] {ese} yup JCP
[09:29] {ese} Switzerland next Les
01[09:29] {Threei}  when we are done with morning volatility, do tell what Haroer did to deserve to be included in that
[09:30] {Les} switzerland got the gold ese. last man standing
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .10 break hl
[09:32] {cipher} FIRE L .29
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {Les} c pushing hard for 44
01[09:36] {Threei}  pms and miners, still hedge to SPY
01[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break hl
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:38] {thomcbell} short setup fcx 32.92 break if holding 33
[09:39] {thomcbell} fcx invalid
01[09:40] {Threei}  no go SLW
[09:40] {cipher} BBBY L .80
01[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:41] {Threei}  1:1
[09:42] {cipher} out BBBY .88 +.08
01[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .60 break hl
01[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:44] {Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:46] {dino} fcn sm l .15
[09:47] {thomcbell} lvs might be a long setup here now vad 54.50 break
[09:48] {dino} stop fcn .85 -.30
01[09:49] {Threei}  a bit listless morning
[09:49] {thomcbell} does that mean liquidity hose with gradual creep will ensue
[09:49] {Les} could be SLW dt here
01[09:50] {Threei}  can't tell really, tbell
01[09:50] {Threei}  there are these sudden rug pulls in SPY
[09:50] {thomcbell} 1:1
[09:50] {thomcbell} lvs
01[09:50] {Threei}  good call LVS
[09:50] {thomcbell} tu
[09:50] {thomcbell} 1:2
[09:50] {cipher} FCN L.57
[09:51] {dino} fcn sm l .70
[09:51] {thomcbell} lvs stop to 54.55
01[09:52] {Threei}  no go CAT
[09:53] {thomcbell} lvs flat last qtr at 54.55
[09:53] {thomcbell} jcp feeling a bit db to me here
[09:53] {thomcbell} too wide
01[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:54] {thomcbell} y i agree there on slw
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:54] {thomcbell} could have made the case for a 0.44 entry
[09:56] {ese} ok greater fool strategy.........L astx .68  if you buy something high somebody else will be stupider and buy it higher......having fun with 1/2 lot here
01[09:56] {Threei}  frikin CAT... rinse
01[09:57] {Threei}  no go SLW
01[09:57] {Threei}  not delighted by this morning
[09:58] {Les} moi non plus got c short for .05 of risk here finally
[09:58] {ese} ok....the strategy works.....wonder if i should take my $5 profit here
[09:59] {ese} opps $5.10 cents
[09:59] {ese} after commision of course
[09:59] {cipher} COST L .22
01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) FEB WHOLESALE INVENTORIES: M/M: -0.3% V 0.5%E; WHOLESALE SALES: 1.7% V 1.5%E
[10:00] {ese} oh oh..........
[10:00] {nemo} those are good numbers
[10:00] {dino} elli sm l .80
01[10:01] {Threei}  yup
01[10:02] {Threei}  (SI) EU's Barroso: Slovenia faces demanding goal in reform program, confident can meet challenges
[10:02] {ese} just when i think i've got a reverse dino goin on here the thing pauses
[10:02] {nemo} COH might be a nice short
[10:03] {Les} if distribution day we should see run back to VWAP resistance for new short
01[10:03] {Threei}  Herbalife Ltd. KPMG said to be resigning as HLF's auditor due to insider trading allegations against a senior partner - NYT- Reports circulating indicate the KPMG resignation as auditor is due to one of its partners conducting insider trading
01[10:04] {Threei}  NYT reports that Herbalife is poised to disclose on Tuesday that KPMG will have to resign as the companys auditor, following the accounting firms firing of a senior partner, according to a person briefed on the matter. KPMG disclosed late Monday that it had fired the partner, who was based in Los Angeles, for providing inside information to an unnamed individual who then traded in shares of several West Coast companies. The firm did not name the fired partner, but described the individual as having led accounts for some clients in the region.
[10:04] {thomcbell} gnw looks like a short setup - not doing it though
01[10:06] {Threei}  SLW, another rinse
01[10:07] {Threei}  friking CAT did 1:3
[10:07] {thomcbell} lvs nasty
01[10:08] {Threei}  watching GDX for possible dt
[10:09] {ese} out astx .79 +.11......huh go figur.......greater fool theory......someone did buy it from me higher
01[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .40 break
01[10:09] {Threei}  If holds  .45
01[10:11] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:12] {Threei}  oh come on, just a scalp?
[10:13] {Les} given the way miners behaving looking for short of iwm into .50 vwap
[10:14] {Les} SPY just hit vwap
[10:15] {Les} FAS at vwap resistance
[10:15] {Les} let' see
[10:16] {Les} GS sitting on VWAP
01[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  C  44 break
01[10:16] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:17] {nemo} V looks very short
[10:17] {Les} s iwm
[10:17] {Les} .40/.50
[10:18] {ese} i'm in .92
[10:18] {ese} caught the call a little late
01[10:19] {Threei}  which call
[10:19] {ese} ohhhhh  and read the call wrong.......thought it was .90 break
01[10:19] {Threei}  lol
01[10:19] {Threei}  works anyway
[10:19] {ese} out 1/2 .03 +.11
[10:19] {ese} tks vad
[10:21] {ese} not again
[10:22] {ese} .93 stop balancce break even
[10:22] {ese} C
[10:22] {Les} another small scalp 2H stop IWM
[10:22] {Les} rough morning
[10:22] {ese} thats just your shaving
01[10:23] {Threei}  GS .50 break should give C a push
[10:23] {Les} brain feels like it's been shaved this morning
[10:24] {ese} too late stopped .93+.01
[10:29] {Les} wondering if we're getting a rotation into commodities
[10:30] {Will49} TSX on a tear
[10:30] {nemo} wondering if Les is rotating on his...
[10:30] {Les} ouch
[10:30] {jdetente} haha
[10:30] {Les} indexes at opening levels
[10:32] {Les} small shoirt IWM .60{7.70
[10:32] {Les} .70
01[10:33] {Threei}  ok, let's trail C to .94 now
01[10:33] {Threei}  time to tighten risk on it
01[10:33] {Threei}  it should have been at 1:2 by now
[10:33] {Les} half .51 covered
[10:33] {Les} didn't take it vad. strange behaviour from it
[10:34] {Les} strange behaviour everyhwere
01[10:34] {Threei}  out
[10:34] {Les} iwm vwap support here
[10:36] {Les} IWM fully coered as a scalp
[10:37] {Les} http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?st=wyckoff&id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff2
[10:37] {Les} perhaps a wyckoff distribution day
[10:37] {Les} watching vwap support here for indexes
[10:37] {Les} looks like it ain't holding
[10:37] {Les} SPY holding
01[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  55 break
01[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:39] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:40] {Les} miners at daily R3
[10:40] {Les} slw anyway
[10:40] {Les} gdx too
01[10:40] {Threei}  LVS was two-sided
01[10:40] {Threei}  thought of it twoo late for a call
01[10:41] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .90 break
01[10:41] {Threei}  If holds  36
01[10:45] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:45] {Les} could be squeeze day for shorts in miners
[10:46] {dino} feels like eggshell market. afraid to make a direction decision
[10:46] {Les} dino while u there
[10:46] {Les} been meaning to ask about BBY
[10:46] {Les} watching it close a gap up around 26.70 I think it was
[10:47] {Les} .50 sorry, from end of march last year
[10:47] {Les} how do you play such a gap closure?
01[10:48] {Threei}  GDX valid again
[10:48] {dino} gaps usually fill, but could take a long time. i prefer fast fills for reversals
[10:48] {Les} or what behaviour do you note when a gap closes?
[10:49] {Les} stock keeps going? turns on a dime?
[10:49] {Les} ok
[10:49] {dino} depends on stock. bby thick. not my style. the thinner ones will fill fast (capits/spikes)and reverse
[10:50] {nemo} fslr short .50?
[10:51] {Les} k
[10:51] {Les} ty
[10:51] {Les} C dumped
01[10:51] {Threei}  yup, glad we tightened it
01[10:52] {Threei}  GDX, your turn
01[10:53] {Threei}  and don't give us that scalp nonsense, 1:3 at least
[10:54] {Les} took .82 half cover. if it's a squeeze trendline bounce is here
[10:58] {dino} mg gap fill
[10:58] {Les} 2H stop
[11:00] {dino} mg sm l .68
01[11:07] {Threei}  holding by fingertips
01[11:09] {Threei}  I officially nominate to day as a day I hate
[11:09] {Les} I'll inform our local authorities and reserve calender space
01[11:10] {Threei}  please
01[11:10] {Threei}  breaking two weeks winning streak
01[11:11] {Threei}  how dare it
[11:11] {dino} stop elli -.15
[11:13] {dino} wtf elli, stop and pops .20
01[11:14] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .50 break
01[11:14] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[11:16] {nemo} fast
[11:22] {Les} "most recent Hulbert data showed a recommendation of -31% net short position in gold among the newsletter writers it follows, which is the most negative in its history going back to 1997."
[11:22] {Les} every man and his dog is now bearish
01[11:22] {Threei}  "newsletter writers it follows"
01[11:22] {Threei}  not actual positions
[11:22] {Les} yeh ok
[11:22] {Les} the ones that talk for a living
01[11:23] {Threei}  eqzaktly
01[11:23] {Threei}  professional bsers
01[11:26] {Threei}  reaction of the left to Tatcher death is beyond disgusting
[11:26] {dino} mg stop -.36.
[11:27] {dino} not my morning. taking break
01[11:27] {Threei}  not anyone's it looks like
01[11:27] {Threei}  and these are people preaching tolerance
01[11:27] {Threei}  dancing on the grave, singing "witch is gone"
[11:28] {nemo} you should see the rep on the gun control issue in colorado...what a bitch
[11:28] {Les} yeh dead body being used as a punching bag
[11:28] {nemo} elderly guy says what if there's a home invasion at his home and you've taken all this away,
[11:28] {Les} rep?
[11:28] {nemo} Bitch says, well the cops would be there right away, and you'd probably be dead anyway?
[11:28] {nemo} House of Representatives
[11:29] {nemo} As if the cops are anywhere right away
[11:29] {nemo} and believe me, I have nothing against cops...had a family full of them
[11:30] {nemo} they're just after the fact
01[11:30] {Threei} Short Setup: RY  .35 break hl
01[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[11:32] {Les} cv .80? short?
[11:32] {Les} c
01[11:32] {Threei}  chart's right
[11:32] {Les} taken hl
[11:34] {nemo} fcx
[11:35] {nemo} might be two way, but have to go with the trend
[11:37] {Les} C vwap is .88 and stupid me 3 min bb support was .80 bb's tightened here. will  hold .90 as stop
[11:37] {nemo} hlf trading again
01[11:38] {Threei}  no biggie, market says
[11:38] {Les} Thatcher poison is interesting look at popular opinion
01[11:39] {Threei}  51% Think Obama More Interested in Increasing Government Spending Than Reducing the Deficit
[11:39] {nemo} what do the other 49% think?
01[11:39] {Threei}  the rest 49% never woke up over last 5 years I presume
[11:40] {Les} of all that talk of Thatcher dismantlement of welfare state, read no explanation of how it would otherwise continued to be paid for, and who would pay
01[11:40] {Threei}  left doesn't care about such minutea details Les
[11:41] {Les} and that's the difference that becoming a trader has made
[11:41] {Les} C just screwed me
01[11:41] {Threei}  they'll live on compassion, tolerance and borrowing
[11:41] {dino} mg rinsed, sheesh
01[11:41] {Threei}  and when no one will lend anymore, they'll default and confiscate whetever rich have
[11:42] {Les} HLF sweet DB
01[11:42] {Threei}  then establish dictature,
01[11:42] {Threei}  and that'll sustain them for another 70 years
[11:43] {thomcbell} marx just a bit early in predictions eh
[11:43] {Les} yeh that I explained to the missus this morning
[11:43] {Les} she did what she had to do, and very few understand it
01[11:44] {Threei}  the most amazing thing to me is:
01[11:45] {Threei}  no matter how many times history shows that it doesn't work, we return to it again and again
[11:45] {Les} HLF BB's tightening around the 38 level here may be a setup coming
01[11:45] {Threei}  squeeze is about to start HLF
[11:45] {Les} Mark and your introduction of Tao was pivotal influence in my change of thinking from linear scientific objectivism to see the world as a cycle
01[11:46] {Threei}  see what you did nemo? created a monster
06[11:46] * nemo faints
[11:46] {Les} hehehe
01[11:46] {Threei}  see what you did Les? killed nemo
[11:46] {Les} no harm done to world
[11:46] {nemo} I fainted...far from dead
01[11:46] {Threei}  HLF squeezes
[11:46] {Les} bunny might starve though
[11:47] {nemo} wait until you see Sunday's blog entry
[11:48] {Les} damn HLF .12 not to expensive anymore
[11:48] {Les} too
01[11:48] {Threei}  .05 was HLF trigger but this is a stock with cipher/dino risk tolerance
[11:48] {Les} but gotten gun shy of such rapid movers
[11:48] {Les} yeh
[11:50] {Les} sm long C .02 if this fails outta here
[11:51] {Les} squeeze mode here or after lunch not sure
[11:59] {Les} damn miners performing beautifully today
[11:59] {dino} dltr sm l .82
01[11:59] {Threei}  US Market Update: US Equities Flat In Listless Trading
01[11:59] {Threei}  no kidding
01[12:00] {Threei}  listless, and I misread the day from the opening on
01[12:00] {Threei}  anyone with stone to throw, now is the time
01[12:01] {Threei}  because tomorrow I'll be back to winning streak, and you'll have missed your chance
[12:01] {backman} sigh...hate when that happens :=)
01[12:01] {Threei}  lol
[12:01] {Les} your batting average better than mine. no stone to throw here
[12:01] {dino} lol
[12:02] {Les} C stop to .95
01[12:02] {Threei}  - US indices have given up their early gains while the continental European bourses are at session lows. Trading volumes remain subpar and there is a distinct lack of catalysts
[12:02] {Les} what was mention of Slovenia premarket? anything concrete?
01[12:03] {Threei}  a few items
01[12:03] {Threei}  Fitch downgrade on Apr 5th,
01[12:04] {Threei}  (SI) OECD report on Slovenia: No immediate need for a bailout; believes �1.0B bank recapitalization may be too low, real cost could be "significantly" higher- Govt must save viable banks and sell them into private hands and let those that are not viable fail - The country risks falling behind in its race to catch up with Western living standards - Forecasts 2013 GDP at -2.1% with 2014 at +1.1%
[12:04] {dino} fcn sm l .20
01[12:04] {Threei}  EU's Barroso: Slovenia faces demanding goal in reform program, confident can meet challenges- There is not indication that Slovenia will be requesting assistance
01[12:05] {Threei}  (duh)
[12:05] {Les} which means its official
01[12:05] {Threei}  Slovenia PM: Govt is initiating privatizations and continuing the process of fiscal consolidation- Comments that Slovenia is not a tax haven. - First bad loans to be transferred to the bad bank in June as part of effort to clean up bad loans
[12:07] {Les} C scratched flat
01[12:08] {Threei}  RY 1:1
01[12:09] {Threei}  I think this first time in my trading career that I short Canadian bank
01[12:09] {Threei}  not that they are sacred, just never came up on a radar
[12:12] {backman} long LIFE .40
[12:20] {cc_9} anyone caught a piece of KERX today ?
01[12:20] {Threei}  we rarely if ever play these cheapies
[12:23] {backman} out LIFE -.06
[12:31] {thomcbell} slow creepy creep tape
01[12:32] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Probability of an EMU break up is clearly lower than before
01[12:32] {Threei}  I strongly disagree
01[12:32] {Threei}  after Cyprus it became stronger than ever
01[12:33] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Reiterates that Cyprus bailout was not a template and was a special case- In any bank bailout structure a bank's owners need to share the burden of costs - There is no clear consensus about a European deposit guarantee structure. - Unhappy about Portugal Constitutional Court ruling. - Austerity measures must be in agreement with national constitutions. - Europe's crisis to be very deep, very long lasting
01[12:34] {Threei}  very deep, yes... very long - lasting - dunno, only about as long as you can duct-tape the whole thing
01[13:04] {Threei} Short Setup: HAL  39 break
01[13:04] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:08] {Les} s JPM .59 stop .66
[13:10] {thomcbell} long setup kors 55.94 break if holding 55.80 -
01[13:10] {Threei}  sh*t... turns out chewing is an exercise with very low calories burn rate... that's why I can't lose weight!
[13:10] {Les} stop chewing yer food then
[13:11] {thomcbell} kors invalid
[13:17] {Les} meh
[13:17] {ese} rotflol
[13:18] {thomcbell} im going to still use the same entry on kors $55.94 trigger but only half lot due to stop distance
01[13:21] {Threei}  HAL is valid
01[13:21] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Center Left Gov Official: Bersani meeting with Berlusconi went well
01[13:22] {Threei}  hah! bunga bunga party?
[13:22] {Will49} LOL
[13:26] {thomcbell} as an italian american - italian politics never ceases to amaze me
[13:27] {thomcbell} kors 1:1
[13:27] {dino} gj
[13:37] {thomcbell} and thats all she had
01[13:38] {Threei}  Invalidated  HAL
[13:39] {cc_9} Anyone playing HLF ? Big mover here.
01[13:40] {Threei}  dino and cipher are about to get interested I think
01[13:46] {Threei} Short Setup: HAL  .20 break
01[13:46] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[13:52] {dino} i might cc
01[13:52] {Threei}  .55 break was a good long entry
01[13:52] {Threei}  right when we exchanged on that
01[13:53] {Threei}  1:1 HAL
[13:53] {dino} fslr spike
[13:55] {dino} hlf sm l .00
[13:57] {dino} agu drop
[14:01] {cc_9} FSLR whoa
01[14:02] {Threei}  (SI) Slovenia Social Democrat party leader Luksic: Slovenia may need to request a bailout if it faces much more market pressure, still has some tools to avoid a bailout- Slovenia has enough money until September, believe it will be able to raise some money on the world market by then.
01[14:02] {Threei}  ok... it's all but official now
01[14:03] {Threei}  First Solar Inc. Guides FY13 $4.00-4.50 v $3.61e, R$3.8-4.0B v $3.20Be, production 1.6-1.8 GW - analyst day- Sees FY13 op cash flow $800M to $1.0B, capex $350-400M - Sees FY13 gross margin 20-22%
[14:04] {dino} hlf stop -.35
01[14:04] {Threei}  rejoice nemo:
01[14:04] {Threei}  (US) Senate Democrats are said to have enough votes to overcome a potential fillibuster against gun control legislation
[14:05] {dino} cyber, none avail fslr
[14:05] {cc_9} We have people shorting FSLR on our end.
[14:06] {cc_9} Shorts are available.
[14:06] {dino} rub it in
[14:06] {cc_9} Was not the intent lol.
01[14:06] {Threei}  you may wasnt to get a small account on a side dino... for shares inventory expansion :)
01[14:06] {Threei}  want
[14:06] {dino} busting ya
[14:06] {dino} yes, thinking about it
[14:07] {cc_9} FSLR half again I believe.
[14:07] {cc_9} HALT*
[14:08] {dino} hlf sm l .50
01[14:09] {Threei}  yeah, circuit breaker
[14:13] {cc_9} FSLR open again
01[14:17] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  36 break
01[14:17] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:21] {dino} hlf stopped again...some dats the bear eats you
[14:21] {dino} days
01[14:22] {Threei}  windshield day
[14:22] {dino} yeah, and yesterday was noting to brag about. these low volume days are tough
[14:23] {dino} nothing
[14:24] {dino} f'ng rinsed hlf
[14:25] {Les} lucky for me I couldn't short it
[14:37] {dino} look at that prick hlf go
[14:39] {dino} in .90
[14:40] {dino} agu drop
[14:46] {cc_9} SRPT, this thing is super active today
01[15:02] {Threei} Short Setup: BG  .65 break hl
01[15:02] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[15:03] {dino} hlf stop flat
[15:03] {dino} done w/it for today
[15:03] {Will49} admire your persistence
[15:10] {dino} calling it a day. disgusted w/myself
01[15:11] {Threei}  oh come on
01[15:11] {Threei}  not your last, not first
[15:12] {cc_9} T__T
01[15:21] {Threei} Short Setup: GS  .15 break hl
01[15:21] {Threei}  If holds  .25
01[15:21] {Threei}  that was a bit too fast
01[15:30] {Threei}  1:2... anyone managed to catch it?
[15:30] {Les} nah
[15:30] {Will49} no
01[15:35] {Threei}  grrrr
[15:37] {Will49} if only, eh?
01[15:46] {Threei}  BG 1:1
[15:46] {Les} woohoo
[15:46] {Les} s3 here
01[15:48] {Threei}  1:2
01[15:48] {Threei}  doesn't take the day in black but takes some sting out
[15:51] {cc_9} Have a good EOD guys.
01[15:51] {Threei}  take care cc
[15:52] {Will49} tomorrow is another day (thank goodness)
[15:52] {Will49} everybody take the rest of the day off :)
[15:52] {thomcbell} gn all
01[15:52] {Threei}  have a good evening guys, see you tomorrow
[15:52] {Les} cheers tbell
[15:52] {Les} c yas