Tuesday, July 30, 2013

July 30 2013

Very good day with a few nice juicy wins, on hero of the day MOST (1:4 to 1:3 to 1:2), WMT and something else. Not bad for a low volume July day at all. Actually not bad for any day of any month.

Session Time: Tue Jul 30 00:00:00 2013
[09:21] {RonS} gm
01[09:22] {&Threei}  morning ron
01[09:23] {&Threei}  wow MOS
01[09:23] {&Threei}  POT
[09:24] {bbobr} gm
01[09:24] {&Threei}  bbobr :)
[09:24] {RonS} ya, really hard for me to understand how the Ukranian news will send potash prices down 25%
[09:25] {cipher} gm
01[09:25] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:25] {nemo} broke up the cartel
01[09:25] {&Threei}  russian, not ukrainian
[09:25] {nemo} there used to be unified pricing across producers, not anymore
[09:25] {nemo} Ukraninas wants market share, you get that by lowering prices
01[09:27] {&Threei}  Uralkali Stopping sales of potash via Belarus Potash Company (BPC) potash consortium, now all exports to go through its own subsidiary Uralkali Trading; Expected to cause potash prices to decline as market shifts from a semi-oligopoly to a fully competitive one- To deliver an optional quantity of 500,000 tons of potassium chloride within the framework of a 2013 contract. - Global potash price may decline to below $300/ton in H2 due to its decision to leave BPC (current price is about $400), but prices should remain above the $200 production costs of some international producers (Uralkali's production cost is only $62/ton) }- This will break up the existing JV (BPC) which controls 43% of the global export market - CEO: Plan to run at full capacity next year; Guides FY14 production to 13M tons v 10.5M tons in FY13 **INSIGHT: Uralkali is the world's largest potash producer. BPC was a potash consortium between Uralkali and Belaruskali, which leaves the North American potash consortium Canpotex (Potash Corp, Agrium, and Mosiac) as the leading global potash export partnership.
01[09:33] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  .25 break hl
01[09:33] {&Threei}  If holds  .15 
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1:2
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1:4, out
[09:34] {nemo} you wanna' go home Vad?
01[09:34] {&Threei}  always
01[09:37] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  27 break
[09:37] {nemo} mos doesn't get to the 38.2 until 43.30 or so
01[09:37] {&Threei}  If holds  .95 
01[09:40] {&Threei}  meh
01[09:40] {&Threei}  wow... MOS hammering is brutal
01[09:45] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .80 break
01[09:45] {&Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:50] {&Threei}  stop to .86
[09:50] {ese} gm
01[09:50] {&Threei}  ese :)
[09:51] {ese} was out on my bike vad and was almost up at your place on the lochside trail.............i shoulda kept on goin and stopped in for coffee
[09:51] {nemo} you lucked out Vad
01[09:51] {&Threei}  what time was that?
[09:52] {ese} about 45/50 mins ago now
01[09:52] {&Threei}  well, between coffee and a gunshot, guess what was more likely {G}
[09:53] {ese} gunshot?
01[09:53] {&Threei}  A+
01[09:54] {&Threei}  some call it grumpiness... I call that morning sunshine
[09:54] {+cc_9} DDD strong comeback from LOD $2
[09:54] {nemo} missed on eps, should be bought all the way back up
[10:00] {+cc_9} AGU the best play so far in the ag gap down this morning.
[10:00] {+cc_9} Not being as tied down to the potash as POT/MOS are helps in this case
01[10:00] {&Threei}  *(US) JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 80.3 V 81.3E
01[10:03] {&Threei}  first MOS trade was relativel;y easy read... after that, kind of mirky
01[10:04] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  27 break
01[10:05] {&Threei}  If holds  .05 
[10:08] {nemo} bp
01[10:13] {&Threei} Short Setup: CAT  83 break hl
01[10:13] {&Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[10:15] {&Threei}  Invalidated  
01[10:18] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  41 break hl
01[10:18] {&Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[10:21] {&Threei}  1:1
[10:21] {nemo} ddd atpossible support
01[10:22] {&Threei}  1:2
01[10:22] {&Threei}  1:3
01[10:23] {&Threei}  out
[10:24] {RonS} got mos .96 to 41.26  thanks 3i
01[10:24] {&Threei}  :)
01[10:24] {&Threei}  MOS serves us well today... 1:4 and 1:3
[10:24] {RonS} took .96 after .00 break figuring a re-trace...
[10:25] {bbobr} very nice pick
01[10:26] {&Threei}  ty
[10:28] {ese} opps forgot to post this out spwr at the open .52 +.06
[10:29] {ese} and look at it now
[10:39] {+cc_9} DDD lovely
01[10:40] {&Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .08 break
01[10:40] {&Threei}  If holds  78 
[10:51] {RonS} OMC short 63.60 break?
01[10:53] {&Threei}  .55 rather
01[10:53] {&Threei}  out WMT in full
[10:57] {RonS} gj wmt 3i, gj ese spwr
01[10:57] {&Threei}  :)
[10:58] {RonS} omc +.15 thanks 3i
[10:59] {RonS} so, is cc8 a one-off of cc9?
01[10:59] {&Threei}  :)
[11:21] {RonS} ...the world is saved:  NY appeals court upholds ruling striking down New York City's ban on large sugary drinks
01[11:22] {&Threei}  wooohooo
01[11:23] {&Threei}  if they ban wieners, world will be even happier
[11:25] {RonS} elect Hillary and watch it happen...
01[11:28] {&Threei}  I meant anothonies
01[11:28] {&Threei}  antonies
[11:32] {RonS} wow fb near 37
[11:33] {RonS} spwr 'nother new high...where is ese?...the bar 'cause he already sold?
[11:34] {ese}  i know .....this is one of them bite it situations that one learns from.....and does the same thing the next time
[11:35] {RonS} ...heard that's what Michael Douglas said...
[11:36] {ese} really?
[11:36] {ese} haven't seen those movies yet
[11:37] {RonS} oh boy...
[11:39] {RonS} Douglas blamed his throat cancer on cunnilingus ese...now re-read your post w/ that in mind...
[11:39] {RonS} :D
[11:41] {ese} gotcha
01[11:43] {&Threei} Short Setup: WMT  78 break
01[11:43] {&Threei}  If holds  .05 
[11:43] {nemo} Ron seems to have added an edge to his commentary of late
01[11:44] {&Threei}  yes but the real question is, who serves as insipration - nemo or ese? {G}
[11:45] {ese} hmmmmmmmm
01[11:49] {&Threei}  Invalidated  
[11:50] {ese} i'll have you know that i am not invalidated!!!!!!
01[11:51] {&Threei}  duly noted
[11:51] {RonS} ...and here I always thought that was a drumbeat...
[11:55] {RonS} what a deal!...Lockheed reaches deal with Pentagon to produce 71 more F-35s, reduces costs per plane by 4%
[11:56] {RonS} ...doesn't even cover the sales taxes...
[11:56] {ese} ?
[11:56] {ese} go figur
[12:04] {RonS} Hearing Kerry offering 1 yr ketchup supply to both sides w/ peace agreement...
01[12:05] {&Threei}  kosher?
[12:05] {RonS} lol
[12:06] {RonS} Kerry syas then if war breaks out everything will be so red that it will scare them to stop...
01[12:07] {&Threei}  I see the plausible solution is manufacturing and wide distribution of bluish-tinted sunglasses
[12:07] {RonS} a Hamas plot?
01[12:08] {&Threei}  marketing slogan: Wear This and Be Warring
[12:08] {RonS} lol
01[12:08] {&Threei}  @TheTweetOfGod
01[12:08] {&Threei}  If I could give one piece of advice to help you avoid the hardships and misery of this world, I wouldn't.
01[12:14] {&Threei}  LOL: They say chocolate improves your mood. It's a half-truth: you also need a bottle of champagne
01[12:16] {&Threei}  today's winner: In a stunning new discovery, on the top of a new oil field geologists also found some arab country
01[12:17] {&Threei}  close second: My wife is racist, I suspect... just look at this separation she does at the time of laundry
01[12:19] {&Threei}  frikin WMT
[12:19] {RonS} ...pass the joint...:  US Secretary of State Kerry: 'When someone says Israelis and Palestinians can't find common ground, don't believe them' 
01[12:20] {&Threei}  Israelis and Palestinians: who do you suggest no one believe us??
[12:38] {+cc_9} C new lows
[12:39] {nemo} fas coming into daily pivot at 73.84 with gap close at 73.62ish
[12:40] {nemo} iwm and spy similarly positioned in relation to gap close, with spy's gap close and daily pivot the proverbial pubic hair appart
[12:40] {nemo} probably gonna' bounce soon
01[12:47] {&Threei} Short Setup: MOS  .60 break hl
01[12:47] {&Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[12:48] {&Threei}  1:1
[12:48] {nemo} oops
01[12:50] {&Threei}  1:2
[13:05] {ese} L acad .92
[13:08] {nemo} wouldn't want to bet, but think we're gonna' get a little rug pull here on fb
[13:10] {nemo} interesting candle here, drops the low probably goes to .25
[13:14] {nemo} mhhh, either algo's are faking it or there's sell pressure on fb
[13:34] {ese} spyders...serious dive
01[13:52] {&Threei}  poor greens in victoreia... up to yesterday, their life was relastively simple: deer and cyclists were good guys, car owners - bad, and each and every run-in was easy to take side on. Guess what happened yesterday
[13:53] {RonS} don't pray and do tell...
01[13:53] {&Threei}  cyclist run into deer
01[13:53] {&Threei}  and giot hurt badly
01[13:54] {&Threei}  whose side to take??
[13:54] {nemo} deer
[13:54] {nemo} rather see dead environmentalist
[13:54] {RonS} vehicle? got gored...
[13:54] {nemo} fb coming itno bounce
01[13:56] {&Threei} Short Setup: WMT  .70 break
01[13:57] {&Threei}  If holds  .75 
01[13:58] {&Threei}  Invalidated  
[14:13] {ese} it's about time ...out 1/2 acad .11 +.19
[14:22] {nemo}  coh question whether long here, or it checks .90 first
[14:24] {ese} is that our cc?
01[14:24] {&Threei}  yeah
[14:26] {ese} too funny
[14:27] {nemo} tsla looks short but support around .20
01[14:30] {&Threei}  there you go
01[14:36] {&Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  .15 break hl
01[14:36] {&Threei}  If holds  .05 
[14:37] {nemo} mos me thinks two way
[14:51] {+cc_9} ALXN if anyone looking for beta
[14:51] {+cc_9} nice swings from initial pop, kinda like CF yesterday
[14:51] {nemo} got any gamma or sigma?
[14:55] {nemo} BP getting off the mat
01[14:56] {&Threei}  out MOS in full
01[14:56] {&Threei}  this is today's blessing
01[14:56] {&Threei}  made our whole day
01[14:57] {&Threei}  be back in 20 to see if there is something decent to polish the day off
[15:16] {nemo} fas bid, might be short
[15:16] {nemo} look .72
[15:18] {nemo} hey 9?  having any luck with your SSo trades today?
[15:25] {nemo} was it something I said?
[15:25] {nemo} 63.4 million spy shares today oy
01[15:31] {&Threei}  Facebook Reportedly planning to sell TV-like advertising on its site; pricing said to be around $1-2.5M per 15 second ad - financial press
01[15:32] {&Threei}  good luck
01[15:33] {&Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  78 break
01[15:33] {&Threei}  If holds  .95 
01[15:38] {&Threei}  Invalidated  
01[15:38] {&Threei}  ok guys, no need to press and spoil very good day
01[15:38] {&Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:42] {+cc_9} ditto