Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Aug 21 2013

FOMC minutes day, any winning trade is precious, 1:3er especially. This one has both, profit and some joking around part of which made a screenshot. The rest will be in the log as always.

And the continuation of this play, reversal and getting 1:3 again on another side - like a flute.

And how about this:

With 1:3 C short at the end of the day, it's as good as it gets on FOMC days. Or better.

Session Start: Wed Aug 21 00:00:00 2013

[08:48] {nemo} drat....looks like I'll have to be nemo again
01[08:49] {&Threei}  sorry
[08:49] {nemo} mmmhhh....doesn't sound heartfelt to me
01[08:49] {&Threei}  it wasn't {G}
03[09:08] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[09:09] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {&Threei}  dino :)
[09:21] {dino} .
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  alex :)
[09:26] {cipher} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  cipher :)
01[09:27] {&Threei}  - FX markets were subdued ahead release of the FOMC minutes later today. Overall the USD has been somewhat dazed and confused the past few weeks and appeared to be a bit of a conundrum as the FED prepared itself to wean from easy money in contrast to the ECB, BOE, and BOJ
[09:28] {RonS} gm...wonder if ese plays one of those...
01[09:28] {&Threei}  ron :)
[09:28] {dino} drums i think
[09:28] {RonS} ...conundrum...
01[09:28] {&Threei}  lol
01[09:31] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .65 break
01[09:31] {&Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:31] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .85 break
01[09:32] {&Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:32] {&Threei}  Invalidated  C
01[09:32] {&Threei}  ditto GDX
01[09:33] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .65 break
01[09:33] {&Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:33] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .50 break
01[09:33] {&Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:34] {&Threei}  GDX 1:1
01[09:34] {&Threei}  C 1:1
01[09:40] {&Threei}  GDX 1:2
[09:40] {dino} litb sm l .35
[09:41] {+cc_9} TGT about to test $66 again
[09:41] {+cc_9} first test held
01[09:44] {&Threei}  looks a good candidate for sizeable bounce to me
01[09:44] {&Threei}  if pulls bacl to about .15 - .20 I'll be interested
01[09:46] {&Threei}  closed last 1/4 GDX on a trail
[09:48] {+cc_9} TGT could get real bouncey if can catch some .80 bids
01[09:51] {&Threei} Long Setup:  BBY  .50 break
01[09:51] {&Threei}  hl
01[09:51] {&Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:54] {dino} litb to .74
[09:54] {dino} out +.39
01[09:54] {&Threei}  nice
[09:55] {dino} ty
[09:56] {+cc_9} TGT sideways .40s-.50s, looking for a breakout
[09:57] {+cc_9} 67.20 target
01[09:59] {&Threei}  *(US) JULY EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.39M V 5.15ME
01[10:00] {&Threei}  meh
[10:03] {+cc_9} TGT .80 offer
[10:04] {dino} eog vsm l .35 gappy, wide
[10:05] {+cc_9} TGT .80s bid, looking good
[10:05] {RonS} dino, pet report bottom of hour...eog
[10:06] {+cc_9} TGT .90 offering
[10:06] {+cc_9} so far so good
[10:07] {dino} petm drop, gap 70.64 area
[10:07] {dino} ty ron
01[10:08] {&Threei} Long Setup:  C  .60 break
01[10:08] {&Threei}  If holds  .55
[10:09] {+cc_9} Out half TGT @ .85 for +$0.53
[10:10] {+cc_9} still think 67.20 doable
[10:11] {dino} gj
01[10:11] {&Threei}  nice one
[10:12] {+cc_9} thx
01[10:14] {&Threei}  meh
[10:14] {dino} air pocket
01[10:18] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .65 break
01[10:18] {&Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:18] {&Threei}  change to .60 break if holds .55
[10:19] {nemo} we're into the tradewinds of Fedwait
[10:19] {nemo} Water water everywhere, not a drop to drink
[10:21] {dino} bofi sm l .80
01[10:23] {&Threei}  nice double bottom, GDX
01[10:23] {&Threei}  now move
[10:23] {Alexs} volume is not right
[10:24] {Alexs} your book Vad :)
01[10:24] {&Threei}  but I never read it
[10:24] {Alexs} lol
[10:27] {+cc_9} stop on rest TGT taken
[10:27] {dino} wo did i miss petm, was waitig at gap, not even close
[10:28] {Alexs} now it looks right :)
01[10:28] {&Threei}  oh, that was the source of thst evil laugh... I thought it was nemo as always, but this time it was PETM
[10:28] {dino} indeed
01[10:28] {&Threei}  break .65 and run GDX
01[10:29] {&Threei}  run like a gazelle
01[10:29] {&Threei}  hmmm... can gazelle have double bottom?
01[10:29] {&Threei}  and still run?
[10:30] {dino} a fat one can
01[10:31] {&Threei}  OK... this one is obviously overweight
[10:32] {nemo} gdx has .52 and then .46 as levels
[10:38] {+cc_9} IWM @ session lows
[10:39] {RonS} look
[10:39] {nemo} IWM did it yesteday, these lows are a longer term trned support
[10:40] {+cc_9} Ron, i think that tells us big hedged bets are taking place today ahead of the 2PM meeting
01[10:42] {&Threei}  half out GDX
01[10:42] {&Threei}  half gazelle left
[10:43] {Alexs} one bottom left
01[10:43] {&Threei}  lol
01[10:46] {&Threei}  1/4 of second bottom is off
[10:47] {Alexs} now it has nothing but run
01[10:48] {&Threei}  too bad it wasn't Pegasus... it could fly then
[10:48] {Alexs} lol
[10:48] {dino} msg drop
[10:49] {dino} sm l .55 gappy
01[10:49] {&Threei}  1:3
01[10:49] {&Threei}  out
01[10:49] {&Threei}  if that wasn't a thing of beauty, be it gazelle, pegasus or unicorn
[10:51] {Alexs} nice catch Vad ty
[10:52] {dino} gj
01[10:53] {&Threei}  :)
[10:57] {+cc_9} TGT tempting again
[11:01] {dino} bofi stop -.30
[11:05] {dino} out msg .60, +1.05
[11:06] {cipher} wtg
[11:06] {dino} thx
[11:07] {dino} pulp type
01[11:07] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .95 break
01[11:07] {&Threei}  If holds  30
[11:07] {dino} bofi re-load sm l .54
01[11:07] {&Threei}  let's see if this weird animal has double top too
[11:08] {dino} leftovers, out htwr .42, +.60
01[11:08] {&Threei}  wtg
[11:09] {dino} ty
01[11:09] {&Threei}  valid still
01[11:10] {&Threei}  ok... gazelle with wings, horn, double bottom and double top - this is going to be epic
[11:11] {Alexs} wings we don't need this time
[11:11] {+cc_9} TGT taking starter under $66
[11:12] {Alexs} fins are more useful
01[11:13] {&Threei}  ok, it can be wings with negative incline, sloping down... to create air flow pressing it down
01[11:13] {&Threei}  don't forget, this epic mythical creature
[11:13] {+cc_9} decent pick-up under $66, lets see if can dump .30s
01[11:13] {&Threei}  with platypus-like nose
[11:14] {+cc_9} out half TGT +$0.30, rest trying for 66.35
[11:14] {dino} out bofi .95, +.41
[11:15] {dino} gj cipher
[11:15] {dino} opps cc9
[11:15] {+cc_9} well, what the shit was that
[11:15] {dino} f#ck up
01[11:17] {&Threei}  1:1
01[11:18] {&Threei}  epic, I am telling you... legen-(wait for it)-dary
01[11:18] {&Threei}  I would imagine, such beasts populated area that on the map was designated as "here there be dragons"
[11:20] {dino} barney
01[11:21] {&Threei}  :)
01[11:23] {&Threei}  1:2
01[11:23] {&Threei}  like a flute
[11:25] {robbers} Out, thanks Vad.
[11:25] {+cc_9} IWM printing fresh lows
01[11:25] {&Threei}  1:3
01[11:25] {&Threei}  out
01[11:25] {&Threei}  yw
[11:26] {Alexs} :)
[11:29] {RonS} tgt 'ed
[11:32] {+cc_9} got a cost @ 65.68, not ideal
[11:36] {+cc_9} TGT vol still high and continues to increase @ LOD. Thanks Obama
[11:36] {RonS} what?  shops at wmt?
[11:37] {RonS} or dltr...
01[11:38] {&Threei}  US equity markets have slipped a little lower this morning ahead of the FOMC minutes. Trading volumes remain well below average while the VIX is above 16
01[11:39] {&Threei}  - Investors are ready to parse every word in this afternoon's FOMC minutes from the July meeting for any hint of whether or not the taper might begin in September. The chief casualties continue to be emerging market currencies, which slipped further against the greenback.
[11:40] {+cc_9} LODs flashing
[11:40] {+cc_9} If SPY loses Friday's LOD, it could get pretty nasty and fast
[11:40] {+cc_9} .70s key
[11:42] {+cc_9} For IWM, that's 100.60
[11:42] {+cc_9} TGT trying to put a bottom now
[11:44] {dino} bofi sm l .36
[11:44] {+cc_9} SPY Friday's low held for now
[11:46] {+cc_9} out TGT -$0.41 on last batch
[11:46] {+cc_9} gona sit tight till ~ 2PM
[11:50] {+cc_9} maybe silly to dump TGT given the fact its actually holding LOD while market tanking
[11:51] {+cc_9} meh
[11:52] {+cc_9} SPY broke all support on 60, now its a guessing game.
[12:20] {RonS} ...some calling selloff bears calling it 'bouttime-o...
[12:28] {RonS} ...guess the Chinese don't have tulips:  #Bitcoin spawns virtual IPOs in China as U.S. scrutiny intensifies |
[12:30] {RonS} crude selloff
[12:39] {RonS} understatement of the year: Ackman says retail investing has not been his 'strong suit'
01[12:40] {&Threei}  lol
[12:42] {Will49} Checking in
01[12:42] {&Threei}  hey will
01[12:42] {&Threei}  missing beautiful days
[12:42] {Will49} Hi Vad
[12:42] {RonS} lol...Twitter execs told bankers it wants an IPO that is 'low profile'
[12:42] {Will49} Yeah, I read the blog :(
[12:43] {Will49} and weep
01[12:43] {&Threei}  wait till you see today's
[12:43] {Will49} not gonna look
01[12:43] {&Threei}  you have to
[12:43] {Will49} ok ok
01[12:43] {&Threei}  we, erhhhhm, joked
01[12:43] {&Threei}  and invented new animals
[12:44] {Will49} see you live in a couple of weeks :)
[12:47] {dino} bofi drop
[12:48] {dino} sm l .05 ave
[12:57] {dino} out bofi .59, +.54
[13:54] {nemo} Hands away from the keyboard...time for the newsreading algo's to give us the Fed Minutes ChaChaCha
01[13:54] {&Threei}  yeah, let's wait for the first emotions to pass
[13:55] {dino} time for 30 minute nap
[13:59] {nemo} here's the first cha
[13:59] {nemo} here's the second cha
01[14:00] {&Threei}  things said "eeck" and died
01[14:01] {&Threei}  economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions showed further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remained elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector was strengthening, but mortgage rates had risen somewhat and fiscal policy was restraining economic growth - The unemployment rate had declined considerably since then, and recent gains in payroll employment had been solid. However, other measures of labor utilization--including the labor force participation rate and the numbers of discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons--suggested more modest improvement, and other indicators of labor demand, such as rates of hiring and quits, remained low.
01[14:01] {&Threei}  - However, in the view of the one member who dissented from the policy statement, the improvement in the labor market was an important reason for calling for a more explicit statement from the Committee that asset purchases would be reduced in the near future. A few members emphasized the importance of being patient and evaluating additional information on the economy before deciding on any changes to the pace of asset purchases. At the same time, a few others pointed to the contingent plan that had been articulated on behalf of the Committee the previous month, and suggested that it might soon be time to slow somewhat the pace of purchases as outlined in that plan. At the conclusion of its discussion, the Committee decided to continue adding policy accommodation by purchasing additional MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month and to maintain its existing reinvestment policies.
[14:02] {+cc_9} im here for the SPY pulpfiction
01[14:02] {&Threei}  In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and retained its forward guidance that it anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.
[14:03] {nemo} I think the bond market has already told them to fuck off
[14:03] {dino} seems accomadation
[14:06] {nemo} bounce area spy
[14:06] {nemo} .25ish
[14:06] {nemo} if not fills gap down to 164
[14:09] {dino} 1639 gap july filled
[14:09] {+cc_9} God bless 3x ETFs
[14:10] {nemo} what you take?
[14:10] {dino} you're a crazy sob cc9. gotta luv it
[14:11] {dino} re-loaded bofi .00 ave
[14:11] {nemo} you had confluence between iwm at yesterday's pivot, spy at daily S2 and weekly S1, and finnies at long term trend, all at the same time
[14:13] {+cc_9} Dino }}}
[14:14] {+cc_9} try to click at the end of the } see if image opens up
[14:14] {nemo} yep
[14:14] {+cc_9} GOD DAMN LOOK AT HER RIP NOW
[14:15] {dino} nice
[14:18] {+cc_9} looks like thats all we have for today, and thats some damn good action for August
[14:18] {dino} should get re-test lows then up imo. fed days usually move around
[14:19] {+cc_9} we can only hope we tank again
[14:19] {nemo} this should be the direction into the close
[14:21] {dino} pcyc spike
[14:22] {dino} stml drop
[14:23] {dino} app lod
01[14:23] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .45 break
01[14:23] {&Threei}  If holds  .40
[14:23] {dino} up now
[14:24] {dino} sso hl l .85
[14:25] {+cc_9} went for it again dino }}}
[14:26] {+cc_9} this one was just for a quick $0.30 snag, nothing crazy
[14:26] {dino} stml blood
[14:28] {dino} out sso _.15
[14:28] {dino} +.15
[14:29] {dino} out bofi .50, +.50
[14:29] {+cc_9} TNA flying :D
01[14:29] {&Threei}  1:1
01[14:30] {&Threei}  1:2
01[14:31] {&Threei}  like fish in a barrel
[14:31] {+cc_9} God bless 3x ETFs
01[14:31] {&Threei}  1:3, out
01[14:31] {&Threei}  can I go home?
[14:32] {dino} gll drop
[14:32] {bbobr} amazing call !
[14:32] {dino} metals getting crushed
01[14:32] {&Threei}  1:4
01[14:33] {&Threei}  3 1:3ers on the same stock in one day
[14:33] {dino} alny spike
[14:33] {dino} wtfg vadster
01[14:33] {&Threei}  :)
[14:34] {dino} missed alny
[14:37] {dino} well, for fed day, it was damn good to me
[14:37] {nemo} 50 day spy at .82
01[14:37] {&Threei}  wtg, and ditto
[14:38] {dino} nice when a plan comes together
01[14:41] {&Threei}
[14:44] {+cc_9} Good day here over-all
[14:44] {+cc_9} good job everyone
01[14:47] {&Threei}  my yesterday night catch
[14:52] {dino} mpc spike
[15:01] {dino} damn, chickened out on mpc short
[15:12] {dino} insy spike
01[15:24] {&Threei}  no, trading software never created this
01[15:24] {&Threei}  sorry, wrong spot
01[15:32] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .65 brwak
01[15:33] {&Threei}  If holds  .70
[15:41] {dino} tee time in 40 minutes. calling it a day. thx all for ideas. good time
01[15:41] {&Threei}  have fun dino
[15:42] {dino} will do
[15:42] {Alexs} perfect day Vad ty
01[15:46] {&Threei}  yw
01[15:46] {&Threei}  covered in full
01[15:46] {&Threei}  +.25
01[15:47] {&Threei}  missed 1:3 by closing my eyes for a min, lol
01[15:47] {&Threei}  here it is again
01[15:47] {&Threei}  4th 1:3er today
01[15:47] {&Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:47] {&Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
01[15:48] {&Threei}  this full moon gives me insomnia
01[15:48] {&Threei}  {nemo} what? you wake up under a tree with an animal carcass next to you?