Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Aug 27 2013

Not only this one is a 1:3er on a classic DBI setup, it's a third successful short on this stock in one day. Wait for the log to be posted to see previous, including "deja vu setup."

Ended up with another very strong day. Interesting to see whether this is fluke, or we are into pattern of selling every bounce now. Such markets are much easier to trade, so not particularly upset if that's the change we face. 

Session Time: Tue Aug 27 00:00:00 2013
[09:20] {RonS} gm & bombs away...
01[09:20] {&Threei}  morning ron
[09:21] {nemo} since we know they don't give a shit about a few hundred thousand people getting gassed, what's this one really about?
[09:22] {+cc_9} gm
01[09:22] {&Threei}  cc9 :)
[09:22] {+cc_9} nemo, geopolitical domination
[09:23] {RonS} the ubiquitous line in the sand an the O's hurt feelings?
01[09:23] {&Threei}  who knows... saving face on the world scene... distracting from economic troubles...
[09:23] {nemo} duh, more specifically please...
[09:23] {nemo} who are Syria's main sponsors?
01[09:23] {&Threei}  showing that Putin Kuzkina mat...
[09:23] {nemo} ahhh
[09:23] {nemo} well, if we see him take off his shoe at the podium
[09:24] {+cc_9} Isolate Iran (even though they never were a threat), put a wall between them and Lebanon. Facilitate Saudi oil pipelines through Syria and the list goes on
[09:24] {cipher} gm
[09:24] {nemo} secure Israel to the north and from Hezbollah through Iran
01[09:24] {&Threei}  cipher :)
[09:24] {nemo} Iran is a threat as one of their main sponsors
[09:25] {+cc_9} Iran is an imaginary boogie man, they are a threat to no one
[09:25] {nemo} they fight by proxy through Hezbollah
[09:26] {+cc_9} Since when a few fire crackers tossed at random a threat
[09:26] {dino} gm
01[09:26] {&Threei}  dino :)
[09:26] {+cc_9} Its like saying farmers in tora bora are a threat to our freedom. Its all bs and its bad for you.
[09:26] {+cc_9} Anyways, lets get a nice reversal on SPY for a bounce trade :D
[09:27] {Alexs} gm
[09:27] {nemo} looks bear flaggish to 164 test
[09:27] {bbobr} gm
01[09:27] {&Threei}  alex, bbobr :)
[09:28] {robbers} The attack probably won't be till Monday, there's a UN team on the ground till then.  Hooray, more volitility.
[09:29] {nemo} monday is Labor Day
01[09:29] {&Threei} Short Setup: C  .80 break
01[09:30] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:30] {dino} thousands  die by guns, we sit back. cjhe
[09:30] {dino} chemicals used we act
01[09:30] {&Threei}  stop to .86
01[09:31] {&Threei}  meh
[09:31] {nemo} gdx at the gap
01[09:31] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .25 break
01[09:32] {&Threei}  If holds  .33
[09:32] {+cc_9} SPY tgt 165.125
01[09:33] {&Threei}  stop .31
01[09:33] {&Threei}  half out
01[09:33] {&Threei}  .16
01[09:34] {&Threei}  stop .26
01[09:34] {&Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:34] {&Threei}  .08
01[09:34] {&Threei}  stop .21
[09:36] {RonS} good one here +.19  ty
01[09:37] {&Threei}  :)
[09:39] {+cc_9} love today's setups, nice gap down, purdy reversal
[09:40] {nemo} Hearing the theme song from Deliverance
[09:40] {RonS} yrcw showing extreme pulp moves...
01[09:41] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .25 break
01[09:41] {&Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:43] {+cc_9} CPRX another pulpy play ron
[09:44] {RonS} unxl 46% float short and into a gap
[09:46] {dino} sm l bws .75
01[09:47] {&Threei}  deja vu setup, my recent addition to the arsenal
01[09:47] {&Threei}  1:1
[09:47] {+cc_9} SPY on cruise control
[09:47] {nemo} 165 test
[09:47] {robbers} Nice double-dip on GDX, thanks.
01[09:47] {&Threei}  :)
01[09:48] {&Threei}  double dip is what george costanza does with chips
[09:48] {+cc_9} Keep an eye on TIF
[09:49] {nemo} tif at breakout support on daily
01[09:49] {&Threei}  Olympus Japan sent out an official invitation for a touch and try session with the new “Flasgship camera” and lenses. It will take place on Friday September 13 in Tokyo.
01[09:49] {&Threei}  ok... I am off to Tokyo
[09:49] {dino} watching tif too nemo
[09:50] {dino} ibn sm l .20
[09:50] {+cc_9} cc_9 SPY tgt 165.125
[09:50] {+cc_9} closing in.
[09:50] {+cc_9} And then calling it a day
[09:51] {dino} tif sm l .75
[09:51] {dino} .65 that was
[09:52] {nemo} hey CC, spy might want to get back to the 50 day today
[09:52] {dino} out tif .10, +.45
01[09:53] {&Threei}  wtg
[09:54] {+cc_9} good work on TIF
[09:55] {dino} rcl hl l .91
[09:57] {dino} ty
01[09:58] {&Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:58] {&Threei}  stop to .21
01[09:58] {&Threei}  let's see how far deja vu goes
01[09:59] {&Threei}  out in full
01[09:59] {&Threei}  .98
[10:01] {RonS} wtg
01[10:03] {&Threei}  ty
01[10:03] {&Threei}  ugh... wanted to get reversal too
[10:03] {Alexs} precise work Vad ty
01[10:03] {&Threei}  but it jumped with no setup
01[10:03] {&Threei}  yw sir
[10:08] {dino} safm
01[10:09] {&Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .93 break
01[10:09] {&Threei}  If holds  95
[10:11] {+cc_9} You are not confident in their new chicken wing release @ Macdo ?
[10:12] {Alexs} still valid?
01[10:12] {&Threei}  I am confident it's another McCrap
01[10:12] {&Threei}  no, I don't think so
[10:13] {+cc_9} DDD on close watch
[10:13] {dino} safm sm l .05
[10:13] {+cc_9} Looking for a TIF type bounce
[10:13] {+cc_9} SPY stuck @ same pps for 10mins
01[10:16] {&Threei} Long Setup:  JCP  .35 break
01[10:18] {&Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:19] {&Threei}  meh
[10:21] {dino} tif drop
[10:24] {nemo} crm looks short
[10:25] {+cc_9} SPY falling apart, last intraday support 164.25 about to test
[10:25] {nemo} have gap down to 164
[10:27] {nemo} you buying 164 9?
01[10:28] {&Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
[10:28] {+cc_9} vol hasn't picked up yet on this downside
01[10:28] {&Threei}  Invalidated
[10:28] {nemo} .70 area is the 50 day vad
[10:29] {nemo} xlf volume spike
[10:29] {+cc_9} Bloomberg "geopolitical uncertainty cause for market downside today"
[10:29] {+cc_9} really now...?
[10:29] {nemo} wow, what intuitive genius
[10:30] {dino} noah gap fill
[10:30] {dino} sm l .00
[10:31] {nemo} xlf was the tell on this low
01[10:34] {&Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
[10:34] {nemo} 50 day right here
01[10:34] {&Threei}  If holds  .65
[10:35] {+cc_9} SPY needs to hold this level, any break below 164.125 we get serious selling pressure
[10:36] {dino} out rcl .20, +.29
[10:36] {nemo} they didn't throw alot of volume at iwm there
01[10:37] {&Threei}  1:1
[10:43] {+cc_9} should be good to g onow
01[10:44] {&Threei}  1/4 more out
[10:45] {dino} bofi drop
01[10:47] {&Threei}  stop .74
01[10:48] {&Threei}  closed
[10:48] {robbers} Thanks, IWM.
01[10:48] {&Threei}  yw
[10:51] {+cc_9} vol still low SPY on fresh lows
[10:54] {+cc_9} 10:36 cc_9 SPY needs to hold this level, any break below 164.125 we get serious selling pressure
[10:54] {+cc_9} LOD on the nose for now, lets see if holds.
[10:56] {+cc_9} there she goes
[11:12] {RonS} test
01[11:12] {&Threei}  pass
[11:12] {+cc_9} pass
[11:13] {RonS} took safm 64.95 to 65.95  +1.00 thanks dino
01[11:14] {&Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .85 break
01[11:14] {&Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:14] {&Threei}  wtg ron
[11:17] {+cc_9} Come on SPY...164.75 bid get
01[11:17] {&Threei}  half out
[11:19] {+cc_9} SPY needs to clear this traffic jam
[11:22] {dino} out ibn .50, +.30
[11:24] {+cc_9} come on, get mid .60s already
[11:26] {+cc_9} .70s on deck
[11:27] {+cc_9} IWM still lagging behind
[11:29] {+cc_9} http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/9294/1wf4.jpg
[11:30] {nemo} Oh, I forgot about Incirlik
[11:30] {nemo} no wonder we destabilized Egypt first
[11:31] {nemo} Nuke the whole middle east...we can drill through glass
[11:31] {nemo} was that harsh
[11:31] {+cc_9} Sounded american
[11:32] {nemo} Wir koenned den ganzen Mittel Oest bomben...Wir koennen doch durch Glas reimen
[11:32] {nemo} how's that
[11:32] {nemo} oops koennen
[11:33] {nemo} ah bebohren would work also for drilling
[11:33] {+cc_9} IWM on par now with SPY, should get a tandem move now.
[11:35] {RonS} somg jcp
[11:37] {robbers} Out GDX in full, thanks for the threepeat.
01[11:37] {&Threei}  hehe
01[11:37] {&Threei}  yw
[11:37] {+cc_9} SPY higher highs on intraday time frame. wall .75 then .00
01[11:38] {&Threei}  1:2
[11:39] {+cc_9} French President Hhollande says France "is ready to punish" those who gassed innocents in Syria
[11:40] {+cc_9} France only knows how to fight against 10 nomads from mali holding knives and rusty Aks
01[11:43] {&Threei}  Conflicting headlines suggest that US sources have told the Syria opposition to expect an attack as early as Thursday, while others say the Obama Administration has not yet made up its mind whether or not to pull the trigger
[11:43] {nemo} yeah, but they could send LDF
01[11:45] {&Threei}  1:3, out
01[11:45] {&Threei}  where is fish who complained that all the 1:3ers were spent before his entrance
01[11:53] {&Threei}  reached 1:4
[12:01] {dino} bws sm l .50
01[12:04] {&Threei}  visual http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2013/08/aug-27-2013.html
06[12:07] * &Threei welcomes cc9 back
[12:07] {+cc_9} test
[12:07] {+cc_9} pass
[12:08] {+cc_9} SPY LOD test x4. Moment of truth
[12:12] {+cc_9} TNA vol spike
[12:13] {+cc_9} anyone else sees that ?
[12:16] {nemo} I see the volume spike, but since that's derivative of IWM, not sure it means much
[12:19] {nemo} cc, the question now is do you start partialling in a long for a 154 bounce
[12:19] {nemo} 164
[12:19] {nemo} you've got support iwm at .46
[12:20] {nemo} major suport at .58 on xlf
01[12:34] {&Threei}  to distract you and prevent overtrading while market is stalled, http://goo.gl/V0xgSj
[12:37] {+cc_9} DDD long idea, stop loss LOD
01[12:37] {&Threei}  come on, no one like those classic engines of collector cars?
[12:37] {nemo} not my thing...looks nice though
01[12:38] {&Threei}  Alex, fine, he went progressibe last week, he hates cars... but the rest of you lot?
[12:38] {nemo} excuse me...
[12:38] {nemo} dude...that's the ultimate of insults, you are on the list
01[12:38] {&Threei}  ?
[12:39] {nemo} oh, you referring to Alex?
01[12:39] {&Threei}  you have some kind of reading impairment or what?
[12:39] {nemo} I'll stop while I'm behind
01[12:40] {&Threei}  wow... never thought I'd live to see this
[12:40] {nemo} exception that proves the rule
[12:41] {nemo} oh oh
01[12:41] {&Threei}  wait nemo, I have a car that you will like
[12:41] {+cc_9} there goes the rug
01[12:41] {&Threei}  no news
[12:41] {nemo} here comes the volume
[12:42] {Alexs} in fact all progressives like good cars they just have it and don't talk about it ;)
01[12:42] {&Threei}  that's their standard MO
[12:43] {Alexs} :)
01[12:43] {&Threei}  look at this: https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1186023_520039801408873_691370006_n.jpg
[12:49] {nemo} eh
[12:56] {+cc_9} +$0.70 on DDD
01[12:56] {&Threei}  nice
[13:08] {dino} gj
01[13:39] {&Threei}  Russia and China warn Syria strike would have "catastrophic consequences"
01[13:39] {&Threei}  for whom?
[13:40] {Alexs} I think for everybody actually
[13:40] {dino} kind of a dreaded double dog dare to obummer
[13:41] {nemo} yeah, but he doesn't have to run for reelection
[13:41] {nemo} allows dems to vehemently stand against him in next elections
[13:41] {nemo} screws republicans
[13:47] {+cc_9} To believe that there are actually parties with different point of views and its all about who to vote in, is naive.
[13:49] {nemo} I understand, but the game is played at multiple levels...bread and circus to maintain the Potemkin village
01[13:49] {&Threei}  I liked toad and pooch theme better...
[13:49] {dino} i find it ironic that you can shoot as many people that you want, but you cannot gas them. death is death to me
01[13:49] {&Threei}  or kings and cabbage
[13:50] {dino} all the prior murders were ok i guess
[13:52] {nemo} nah, bread and circus for the masses
01[13:52] {&Threei}  priorities... no one spoke of boycotting Olympics in Russia while it supported Syria for 2 years, but as soon as gays rights were assaulted, all kinds of celebrities demanded boycott
01[13:52] {&Threei}  things that make me beg to let me off this planet
[13:52] {dino} sure, the politically correct are not grounded in reality
01[13:52] {&Threei}  I would be very comfortable on Titan
[13:54] {+cc_9} Like Vad always says "Its all fund and games until fown to roaf and one screws the toad"
01[13:55] {&Threei}  yup, my favorite saying
[14:03] {+cc_9} headfake after headfake, yea, i think ill wait
[14:23] {robbers} Geez, what is the GDX short now, 1:25?
01[14:25] {&Threei}  lol
[14:25] {Alexs} fb short .75?
01[14:26] {&Threei}  half lot, worth a try
[14:51] {Alexs} GDX volume increases
[14:52] {Alexs} reverse time?
01[14:52] {&Threei}  if dives again under .80, I'd be interested in recross
[14:53] {Alexs} ok
[15:15] {+cc_9} JCP looking for reversal EOD
01[15:23] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .55 break
01[15:23] {&Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:34] {&Threei}  feels like we are back to "sell into any bounce" pattern
01[15:34] {&Threei}  I like it
01[15:34] {&Threei}  if that holds, we tend to do very well in such market
01[15:34] {&Threei}  we shoot anything that peeks out of its hole in ground
[15:40] {+cc_9} someone's gonna get recked, straya' style
01[15:44] {&Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .20 break
01[15:44] {&Threei}  If holds  .15
01[15:44] {&Threei}  last try
[15:45] {Alexs} I like "sell into any bounce" better
01[15:46] {&Threei}  well, I am not sdure we are fully there yet
[15:47] {+cc_9} IWM catching bids
01[15:47] {&Threei}  and this is legitimate long setup with low risk
[15:47] {nemo} this low on spy Was within a few cents of the weekly S2 so that lokely it
[15:47] {nemo} likely
[15:48] {+cc_9} All this downside and DIA is only down 1%
01[15:48] {&Threei}  1:1
[15:49] {dino} but down 6% in last 25 days
[15:51] {+cc_9} we saw the same pattern for all of June
[15:52] {dino} bounce soon, imo
[15:52] {+cc_9} 146-145 on DIA should give us max ~ 162 on SPY
01[15:53] {&Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:53] {&Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:53] {dino} cya
[15:56] {Alexs} gn
[15:59] {dino} gn