Thursday, May 22, 2014

May 22 2014

Another quiet but profitable day. Nothing earthshaking, just kind of another day in the office.

Session Time: Thu May 22 00:00:00 2014
[08:52] {dino} gm
01[08:53] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:04] {@Threei}  (IR) Russia planning to sign contract in 2014 to build eight nuclear reactors in Iran '
[09:07] {_jaredt} gm
01[09:07] {@Threei}  jared :)
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ese is about to come in livid
[09:11] {RonS} gm...ran out of drumsticks?
[09:12] {thomcbell} PHH – PHH Corp. – MP – Reuters article out mid-day saying they are selling the fleet business to Element Financial for $1.35B. PHH also issued a RELEASE confirming the discussions. UPDATED THOUGHTS: (1) Some confusion in the market place over the fleet biz. valuation. That business has $405M in equity. BUT, the articles note Element will receive a $400M tax basis write-up which 
[09:12] {thomcbell} bridges the gap between the 1.6x BV multiple cited and the $1.35B valuation. (2) DEBT IMPLICATIONS – PHH has $250M of converts maturing in ’14 which they have cash on hand to settle. They have another $250M in converts maturing after that point and $795M in term notes. Given where the debt trades, PHH would likely need to come up with ~$200M (estimated) in cash to settle the debt. (3) 
[09:12] {troub} good morning you all
[09:12] {thomcbell} BREAK UP VALUE? – PHH market cap is $1.35B. Bose thinks you put 1x TBV on mortgage piece ($1.1B) and then question becomes if the DTL ($798M / $10.35/shr) is transferrable or realized at the time of the sale, but Bose’s note lays out $26.20-$36.50 in possible value.BOTTOM LINE: Of course the question is who’s the buyer of the mortgage business and how will the private label contracts 
01[09:12] {@Threei}  teachers union announced strike... in response, givernemt said they'll cut their salaries by 10% if they do, and lock them out in June
[09:12] {thomcbell} get renegotiated. BUT, clearly the break-up value is higher (and potentially much higher) than where the stock closed. And the Fleet biz. seems like it definitely is going to be sold…end of the day we are MP but I want to buy the stock here as the risk reward seems very favorable in my view with limited downside (~$1-2) with potential 50% upside IF all goes right…
01[09:12] {@Threei}  troub, thom :)
01[09:14] {@Threei}  firestorm in BC... teachers demanded over 20% increase, never mentioning it in public and talking about "class composition" etc
01[09:15] {@Threei}  "we haven't had a raise in years"
01[09:15] {@Threei}  never mind that neither did ordinary taxpayer who pays their salaries
01[09:17] {@Threei}  sharp escalation in Ukraine
01[09:17] {@Threei}  probably what caused gold gap
[09:18] {cosmo} silver gap bigger fwiw
01[09:18] {@Threei}  I guess because it got beaten up more sdeverly
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -d
[09:20] {cosmo} maybe its because of all the silver bullets they're gonna need
01[09:20] {@Threei}  there is werewolf infestation?
[09:21] {cosmo} zombie were wolfs...yes
[09:25] {dino} isn't dracula from ukraine area?
[09:25] {cosmo} nearby i think
[09:25] {dino} or am i thinking vad the impaler
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Romania
[09:25] {dptl} good morning
[09:25] {cosmo} :)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  not too far
01[09:26] {@Threei}  dp :)
[09:26] {RonS} dino, think the guy's name was vlad...
[09:27] {dino} i know, :)
[09:27] {dino} rds/b going for gap fill
[09:28] {cosmo} and then there's those werewolves of london...
01[09:28] {@Threei}  well, those must be russians
[09:28] {dino} they were good movies, american werewolf
01[09:29] {@Threei}  London is oligarchs' playground
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break hl
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[09:31] {@Threei}  change to .80 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  yeah right
01[09:31] {@Threei}  lol
[09:31] {dino} rds/b hl l .59
01[09:31] {@Threei}  ugh, this one got away
01[09:31] {@Threei}  1:3
[09:32] {dino} all these pros talking gloom and doom has me thinking otherwise
[09:32] {nemo} I agree
01[09:32] {@Threei}  yeah
01[09:32] {@Threei}  this market wants to melt up
[09:32] {dino} indeed
[09:34] {cosmo} were else is all that 2008 bailout gonna go ...eventually?
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .25 
01[09:35] {@Threei}  change to .25 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .20 
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[09:37] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:1  FCX  close enough
01[09:38] {@Threei}  half out
[09:40] {dino} musa spike
[09:46] {dino} urbn hl l .50
01[09:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: P  .25 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
[09:48] {dino} musa sm s .85
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1  
[09:49] {thomcbell} sn lord 
[09:51] {dino} taking some yy swing off from 5/8 +5.15
[09:51] {dino} holding small amount want 65
[09:53] {nemo} numbers at 10
[09:53] {dino} urbn stop is lod brk
[09:53] {dino} rds/b frozen
[09:54] {nemo} special dividend dino?
[09:55] {dino} i'm reading dividend in cash only, but nothing paid today, unless i'm missing it
[09:59] {nemo} think there might be a problem with the BATS feed
[09:59] {dino} cov musa ave .47, +.38
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) APR EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.65M V 4.69ME
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) APR LEADING INDEX: 0.4% V 0.4%E
[10:03] {goinshort} P 1:2 and out - thanks !
01[10:03] {@Threei}  yw
[10:04] {RonS} sale marked down
[10:05] {goinshort} out FCX small scalp
01[10:07] {@Threei}  whew Ron... had me worried... day is back on track now
01[10:07] {@Threei}  wow P
[10:08] {dino} sale smr l .14
01[10:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  P  .75 breeak
[10:10] {thomcbell} any clue why sale is down }
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 
01[10:10] {@Threei}  no news that I see thom
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:2  FCX 
01[10:12] {@Threei}  1:1  P 
[10:17] {thomcbell} phh trades pretty well
[10:22] {dino} out sale .44, +1.30, ty ron
[10:22] {RonS} tagged sale 27.30 to 28.35 +1.05
01[10:22] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:22] {dptl} das issues with executions
[10:23] {dino} hate to say it ron, but most likely another $ up in it
[10:23] {RonS} das eeze no gut
[10:25] {RonS} dino w/ that block volume dumpage it could return...we took the easy money
[10:25] {dino} rds/b to .83
[10:26] {dino} to .89
[10:29] {dino} kold spike
[10:30] {dino} ugaz drop
[10:30] {RonS} chilling...
01[10:31] {@Threei}  lol
[10:31] {thomcbell} sale molto bene
[10:31] {dino} rds/b stop .89, +.30
[10:31] {dino} ugaz smr l .38
01[10:31] {@Threei}  Google Inc Has begun rolling out Panda 4.0 update to main search algorithm, designed to further weed out certain low-quality content - tech blogsAccording to Searchmetrics data, big losers in Google page rankings include eBay, and
01[10:32] {@Threei}  why ebay
[10:32] {dino} yy animal today
[10:34] {cosmo} compitition?
01[10:35] {@Threei}  ebay and goog?
[10:35] {cosmo} you never know...
[10:41] {thomcbell} long setup POST 48.86 if holding 48.76
[10:54] {dptl} .
[10:55] {dino} out urbn .84, +.24
[10:58] {RonS} sheesh missed pdco
[10:59] {dino} momo's on the move today
[11:00] {thomcbell} post invalidated looking for another setup - now has some work to do
[11:00] {RonS} post toastie?
[11:01] {dino} post hammered?
[11:02] {dino} scanners slowing down
[11:03] {troub} dino, smr is what?
[11:04] {RonS} has said before 300 shares
[11:05] {RonS} smr short for smaller i guess...dinospeak
[11:05] {troub} didn't see it Ron. thanks
[11:06] {RonS} after years i finally wrote it all down...dinospeak
[11:06] {troub} I'll start my list now
[11:06] {RonS} lol...didn't have dl....thought it was "don't like"
[11:08] {RonS} my mention = 1k, hl = 500, sm = 400, smr 300, vsm 200
[11:09] {RonS} s/l 3-400 -.33-.36, 500 -.20, 1k -.12
01[11:09] {@Threei}  and main dinoterm: iityiwhtku
01[11:09] {@Threei}  if I told you I would have to kill u
[11:11] {troub} glad Dino didn't tell me LOL,  I like living
01[11:11] {@Threei}  it's temporary
[11:13] {thomcbell} sn got its pullback 
[11:14] {dino} ron, thats copywriter info....:)
[11:15] {dino} you forgot pulp and hooker
[11:15] {RonS} ya but knew those by heart...
[11:17] {RonS} pulp = mover, as in moving all over the place...hooker = wide spread as in the bid/ask is .15 to 1.00
[11:18] {RonS} last trip = dino gone
[11:20] {troub} Thanks Ron for education. I'll send flowers if Dino gets to you.
[11:22] {dino} esi drop
[11:23] {dino} lol ron, had nice round going last night until 9th hole (ob on drive), went from 2 over to 4 over
[11:29] {dino} esi bloody
[11:31] {dino} smr l .99
[11:32] {dino} out ugaz .59, +.20
[11:33] {dino} 4%=20% hmmm
[11:34] {dino} 28%
[11:35] {RonS} ?
[11:36] {dino} out esi 19.09, +1.10
01[11:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  111 break
01[11:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 
[11:38] {thomcbell} phh 25 long brak if holding 24.90
[11:39] {dino} damn sold that esi way too soon
[11:41] {thomcbell} couple of big prints on sn 
[11:41] {thomcbell} 290k and 21k at 33.10 
[11:41] {thomcbell} dont know what to make of it in the context of this crazy move
01[11:42] {@Threei}  ok IWM... you consolidated enough
01[11:42] {@Threei}  break and run
01[11:43] {@Threei}  let's see maybe .90 break is beter way to play it
01[11:43] {@Threei}  change to .90
01[11:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[11:52] {@Threei}  1:1  
[12:05] {RonS} soda fizzle
[12:07] {RonS} tgt banged
[12:08] {thomcbell} phh 1:2
[12:08] {_jaredt} dang, you're good... :)
[12:08] {RonS} just born in the land of corn...  :)
[12:09] {RonS} Ohio fwiw
01[12:10] {@Threei}  SODA is too easy for ron... it eaiether pops or fizzles
01[12:10] {@Threei}  (and he did both)
[12:11] {RonS} but today was a classic fizzle...
[12:13] {RonS} cpla gone acapella
[12:14] {RonS} esi hitting them all...stra apol cpla
[12:16] {dino} thats some drop on esi, for a slight miss
[12:18] {RonS} dropped guidance forward due to accounting questions over some kind of loan program...
[12:19] {RonS} look sale...told ya...have to pay attention to the block volume...the big holders should be smarter than us...
[12:21] {RonS} my rule of thumb...anytime block volume is over 10% of total it means real trouble
[12:22] {dino} sale news is just that google thing right? will be watching it tomorrow
[12:23] {RonS} ...the other extreme is true too...selloff on little to no block volume means noone big wants to buy a block so the big holders have to feed their shares so the offer pressure can be relentless
01[12:24] {@Threei}  looks like dino... I see nothing else
[12:25] {dino} same here vad, thx
[12:28] {dino} get used to this slow down, most likely even slower tomorrow
01[12:29] {@Threei}  unless Ukraune flares up before the election
[12:32] {dino} lol, when i sad 65 on yy, i didn't expect it to happen today, but the way its trading....
[12:41] {RonS} dv acting like it wants the gap
01[12:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: SALE  .85 break hl
01[12:48] {@Threei}  If holds  27 
01[12:49] {@Threei}  yuck
[12:50] {_jaredt} lol
[12:50] {_jaredt} that sucks
01[12:51] {@Threei}  look at this
01[12:51] {@Threei}  (US) Deutsche Bank Chief International Economist: The Fed may increase its inflation views in June, possibly by a wide margin
01[12:51] {@Threei}  RetailMeNot, Inc. RetailMeNot Statement on Recent Press Concerning Commentary on Search Engine Ranking PerformanceThe company believes these reports greatly overstate the impact on Over RetailMeNot's history, search engines have periodically implemented algorithm changes that have caused traffic to fluctuate. It is too early to judge any potential impact of the latest Google algorithm change. While RetailMeNot's traffic with Google continues to grow year-over-year, the company has experienced some shift in rankings and traffic. The company continues to believe its focus on content quality and user experience will continue to help grow the business, enable consumers to save money and drive retailer sales.
01[12:53] {@Threei}  somg
[12:53] {thomcbell} will probably have a good bounce soon 
01[12:54] {@Threei}  don't you hate it when right idea gets rinsed so brutally
[12:57] {goinshort} 1:3 sale - thanks
[12:57] {RonS} lol
01[13:00] {@Threei}  yw
01[13:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  ABBV  .20 break
01[13:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .15 
[13:12] {RonS} yer killin me...every time you post abbv i think abba...the horror
01[13:12] {@Threei}  ouch
01[13:13] {@Threei}  sorry
[13:13] {RonS} hehe
01[13:13] {@Threei}  I would never, knowingly...
01[13:13] {@Threei}  valid again
01[13:14] {@Threei}  with stop under .10
[13:15] {dino} with this slow down, not going to ruin a great morning, so going to mow the lawn. gn all, thx for ideas
[13:15] {RonS} good idea dino....cya
[13:15] {dino} :)
01[13:16] {@Threei}  crap... darn neighbor with his tractor, my lawn is mowed
01[13:17] {@Threei}  change to .15 break
[13:26] {thomcbell} sn - 32.50 long break if holding 32.40
[13:26] {thomcbell} small shares 
[13:38] {thomcbell} sn invalidated
01[13:45] {@Threei}  half out swedish pop group
01[13:45] {@Threei}  stop to .14
01[13:45] {@Threei}  {--- succesfully squeezing juice out of stone
[13:47] {thomcbell} big offer on sale getting eaten here 
01[13:47] {@Threei}  big offer on sale?
[13:47] {thomcbell} was at 24.70 
01[13:48] {@Threei}  thom, you are competing with ron here :)
[13:48] {thomcbell} shocking move 
[13:49] {thomcbell} might be start of rally 
[13:49] {thomcbell} on Sale
01[13:58] {@Threei}
01[13:58] {@Threei}  this is probably the best item that ever came out of the whole ordeal
[14:27] {dptl} nonko clearing is still having issues (all day today) most likly they won't fix it today
[14:28] {RonS} outta here early...had real nice day, thanks everyone
[14:29] {dptl} going too, will see ya tomorrow ...
[14:30] {_jaredt} IWM?
[14:30] {_jaredt} cup handle
01[14:31] {@Threei}  let's try to catch pullback
01[14:31] {@Threei}  breakouts are still tough proposition
01[14:52] {@Threei}  oh boy
01[14:53] {@Threei}  eBay Inc New York AG has reportedly asked eBay to give all users impacted by the data breach free credit
01[14:53] {@Threei}  how the deuce is this AG's business?
[14:56] {Alexs} he is on of those users I guess
01[14:57] {@Threei}  lol
[14:57] {Alexs} one
01[14:57] {@Threei}  amazing how they feel they can tell businesses what to do
01[14:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  ABBV  .85 break
01[14:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .75 
[15:01] {Alexs} Putin will be tomorrow morning at Squawk Box CNBC
01[15:02] {@Threei}  what time?
[15:02] {Alexs} they just said tomorrow morning
[15:03] {Alexs} Squawk Box from 6 to 9 usually
01[15:04] {@Threei}  I am likely to miss it then
[15:04] {Alexs} lol
01[15:04] {@Threei}  not that I couldn't finction without it...
01[15:05] {@Threei}  no go ABBV
[15:06] {Alexs} you view of IWM was right Vad
01[15:07] {@Threei}  let's see if we can find entry
01[15:08] {@Threei}  .90 break is standard way...
01[15:08] {@Threei}  but feels like more selling should come
01[15:08] {@Threei}  I'd wait a bit more
01[15:11] {@Threei}  in fact...
01[15:11] {@Threei}  it doesn't look like long is a way to go at all
01[15:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .45 break
01[15:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[15:27] {@Threei}  OK
01[15:27] {@Threei}  lt's do this last quick push
01[15:27] {@Threei}  let's too
[15:27] {_jaredt} are you in?
01[15:27] {@Threei}  not triggered yet
01[15:27] {@Threei}  but ready to
01[15:28] {@Threei}  anyone needs Kyiv Entertainment Guide May 23 - June 1, I have a link
01[15:29] {@Threei}  hmmm... no takers...
01[15:30] {@Threei}  come on cosmo, be adventurous
[15:32] {troub} Vad, not to argue, but I triggered @ .46 several min. ago
[15:32] {_jaredt} me too
01[15:32] {@Threei}  huh... where was I
[15:33] {nemo} not thinking
[15:33] {troub} hitting the Vodka already?
[15:33] {nemo} intravenously
[15:34] {nemo} he's got a permanent port installed
[15:34] {troub} saves time that way
01[15:36] {@Threei}  saves vodka too, no chance of accidental spillage
[15:39] {thomcbell} sn looking vulnerable 
06[15:42] * @Threei kicks TZA in the rear
06[15:46] * @Threei kicks TZA in the rear with steel toe heavy duty army boots
[15:49] {_jaredt} try kicking one more time....
01[15:50] {@Threei}  hmmm... it might not respond well to violence
01[15:50] {@Threei}  second kick was less effective
01[15:50] {@Threei}  let's try kind word...
[15:50] {thomcbell} sn 31.50 short braek if holding 31.60
01[15:50] {@Threei}  TZA... be so kind, go up
01[15:51] {@Threei}  be mondful of time, thom
01[15:51] {@Threei}  mindful
[15:51] {thomcbell} tu 
[15:51] {goinshort} T hope you have better luck with the ladies, then you do with TZA
[15:52] {goinshort} your sweet talkin not working
01[15:52] {@Threei}  who says I sweet talk to ladies? my wife frowns upon that
[15:53] {goinshort} lol
01[15:53] {@Threei}  last chance TZA
01[15:53] {@Threei}  move you slimy bastard
01[15:54] {@Threei}  (no sweet talk no more)
[15:54] {goinshort} that's better!
01[15:54] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:55] {@Threei}  3 min
01[15:55] {@Threei}  move
01[15:56] {@Threei}  your
01[15:56] {@Threei}  butt
[15:56] {thomcbell} flat sn 
[15:56] {thomcbell} was worth a shot 
01[15:57] {@Threei}  slides now
01[15:57] {@Threei}  OK... out TZA with a scalp
01[15:58] {@Threei}  saved by the bell
[15:58] {goinshort} Out TZA nice scalp  5k shares  - thanks
01[15:58] {@Threei}  nice!
01[15:58] {@Threei}  wtg
01[15:58] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:58] {goinshort} cya all -thanks!
01[15:58] {@Threei}  have a great evening
[15:58] {_jaredt} thanks, cya tomorrow
01[15:58] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow