Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Aug 06 2014

1:5 in 8 minutes - not your every day's trade. VXX in all its glory. Love bearish moves

Very nice profitable day again.

Session Time: Wed Aug 06 00:00:00 2014

[09:12] {RonS} gm...wag the dog
01[09:13] {@Threei}  morning ron
01[09:15] {@Threei}  that was a good movie
01[09:15] {@Threei}  but why the reference? :)
[09:23] {troub} good morning
01[09:23] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Italy enters back into a technical recession; other EU data releases disappoint
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ENPH +21% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FOX +5.5% (withdrawal of bid for TWX)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DRYS +4.4% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SGMS +4.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ATVI +3.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -JAZZ +2.7% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CYTX -31% (ATHENA & ATHENA II trials put on clinical hold)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FUEL -30% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GMED -18% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -WAG -16% (announcement of Alliance Boots option action, initial FY16 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -S -16% (dropped bid for TMUS)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTSH -15% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NUS -14% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TWX -13% (withdrawal of FOX acquisition bid)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  gosh... now I dot it Ron, nevermind
01[09:26] {@Threei}  got
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CTSH (-13% earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  72 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .20 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  hl
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:36] {@Threei}  stop to .14
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .40 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei}  meh SALE
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:3  TWTR  close enough
01[09:49] {@Threei}  out
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .90 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:08] {@Threei}  P Tickes higher once again on renewed takeover chatter
01[10:10] {@Threei}  NUS.... sheesh
01[10:10] {@Threei}  dino will cry tomorrow
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FUEL  18 break hl
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:27] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:2, uh
[10:30] {RonS} +1210 tick
01[10:31] {@Threei}  nice breadth
01[10:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 brea
01[10:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:51] {@Threei}  no go
[11:06] {RonS} Sanctions against Russia accelerate global shift away from U.S. dollar:
01[11:14] {@Threei}  strange
01[11:14] {@Threei}  should be other way around
[11:14] {nemo} forcing trade in other directions, banking restrictions will limit use of dollar.  Russia will have to trade in other currencies
01[11:16] {@Threei}  war tensions tend to send haven-seekers to the currency safe from turbulence
[11:17] {nemo} yeah, but Russia needs to seek trade and can't trade completely in $ what do you trade in?
01[11:17] {@Threei}  what did it do in cord war ear?
[11:18] {nemo} you were there, I wasn't
01[11:19] {@Threei}  but you were here - how did russia isolation impact dollar?
[11:19] {nemo} it didn't but it was a very different world back then
[11:19] {nemo} the $ was undisputed king
01[11:20] {@Threei}  this makes little sense to me
01[11:21] {@Threei}  look at this same article:
01[11:21] {@Threei}  One place the shift has become evident is Hong Kong, where dollar selling has led the central bank to buy more than $9.5 billion since July 1 to prevent its currency from rallying as the sanctions stoked speculation of an influx of Russian cash.
01[11:21] {@Threei}  see what I mean?
[11:21] {nemo} not really
01[11:22] {@Threei}  threat of local currencies rallying forces contral banks buy dollar
[11:23] {nemo} It's still a head I win tails you lose scenario for many countries currency versus the $.  They can't let theirs appreciate too much, yet they have to develop new mechanisms to trade in other currencies...balancing act
01[11:23] {@Threei}  yes but the outcome of the balancing is, status quo preserved
01[11:23] {@Threei}  they have to buy dollars,
01[11:23] {@Threei}  they increase their holdings,
01[11:24] {@Threei}  thus they can't let them drop
[11:24] {nemo} but the mechanisms are developing to make trading in non-$ denominated debt possible across a greater number of currencies
01[11:24] {@Threei}  this is self-sustaining thing that pretty much makes USD invincible and its dominance unbreakable
01[11:24] {@Threei}  nope
[11:24] {nemo} mmmmmhhhh]
[11:24] {nemo} never say never
01[11:24] {@Threei}  that's a wishful thinking
01[11:25] {@Threei}  if that goes through, USD drops making their holding melt
01[11:25] {@Threei}  so they themselves will do everything possible to avoid that
01[11:25] {@Threei}  real danger to USD is not there
01[11:25] {@Threei}  these guys don't understand big picture
01[11:26] {@Threei}  Real danger is from within, from those who underatand just how unbreakable USD dominance is, and push it and oush it
01[11:26] {@Threei}  until one day they will push too far
01[11:26] {@Threei}  and ruin whole world financial system
[11:27] {nemo} back to the barbarous relic=real money
01[11:27] {@Threei}  but the problems that come with that are of such magnitude that USD dominance will be the last thing to worry about
01[11:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .45 break
01[11:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:29] {@Threei}  one more worthy quote:
01[11:30] {@Threei}  greenback has weathered numerous crises. It emerged from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, endured the introduction of the euro almost three decades later and maintained its status as a haven currency even when the 2008 collapse spread from Wall Street to economies around the world.
01[11:30] {@Threei}  is russian crisis bigger than any of those events?
01[11:32] {@Threei}  wrong again on short
[11:32] {nemo} I think the article said "hasten" away from yes?  Well it is causing further mechanisms to develop to trade in the $, yes?
[11:32] {nemo} out of rather
01[11:33] {@Threei}  well, it's wrong, IMO
01[11:33] {@Threei}  here is real trend:
01[11:33] {@Threei}  The U.S. currency climbed against all 16 major peers last month as fighting in Ukraine and the downing of a Malaysian jet over the country enhanced the appeal of haven assets. It extended gains today as NATO warned of a Russian incursion in Ukraine under the “pretext” of a humanitarian mission
01[11:34] {@Threei}  so, author of the article sees his mental construct, and trading trend,
01[11:34] {@Threei}  they are in contradiction
01[11:34] {@Threei}  what he choses to believe? :)
01[11:34] {@Threei}  apparently his construct
01[11:34] {@Threei}  reminds you antyhing?
[11:35] {nemo} people who believe in marriage?
01[11:35] {@Threei}  that too
[11:35] {nemo} don't be pickin' on bunny, I can hear u thinking
[11:39] {RonS} Italy's renewed recession drags euro to nine-month low against the dollar:
01[11:40] {@Threei}  that makes sense
01[11:41] {@Threei}  just wait for EU crisis to reinflame, and for Russia to invade Ukraine, and USD will be flying in stratosphere
[11:43] {nemo} was it something I said?
[11:44] {troub} gotta run. always have winners when I leave so have fun.
[11:44] {nemo} sorry
01[11:49] {@Threei}  ugh, .60 was the right entry
01[11:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  NUS  .60 break hl
01[11:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:55] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:56] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:57] {@Threei}  dino-like trade
[11:57] {RonS} ya was going to say:  good one dino, er 3i
01[11:57] {@Threei}  hehe
[12:09] {nemo} VXX looks long and SPY looks like short setting up, but might go for 193 stops first
[12:17] {nemo} well, coulda' picked your poison
[12:19] {nemo} we need to thank troub for leaving
01[12:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[12:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[12:49] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:16] {@Threei}  had 1:2 in it but rinsed the balance
01[13:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  vxx .15 break
01[13:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[13:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[13:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:51] {@Threei}  1:3
01[13:53] {@Threei}  1:4
01[13:54] {@Threei}  almost 1:5, over and out
[13:55] {RonS} a beaut thanks 3i
01[13:56] {@Threei}  yw :)
01[14:00] {@Threei}  visual:
[14:54] {nemo} MON
[14:59] {RonS} outta here early...real nice day...see you in the morning
01[15:06] {@Threei}  take care ron
01[15:28] {@Threei}  thanks guys, have a good evening
01[15:28] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow