Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Aug 20 2014

3 nice wins, including 1:3 and 1:2, and two smallish stops, 5 and 8 cents. Positive for the day, which is not a small feat in and of itself this August.

Session Time: Wed Aug 20 00:00:00 2014

[09:13] {dino} gm
01[09:13] {@Threei}  morning dino
[09:15] {troub} good morning
01[09:15] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:24] {ese} morning ladies and gents am back.......
01[09:24] {@Threei}  hey ese
[09:24] {ese} anything new and exciting while i was gone to the mainland
01[09:24] {@Threei}  quiet august
[09:25] {nemo} Fed Minutes day
[09:25] {nemo} and I'm out of booze
[09:25] {nemo} bunny has abandoned me
[09:25] {ese}  seems like it......for the few times times i've been around anyway
[09:25] {nemo} she's getting old...definitely slowing down
[09:27] {ese} I can identify
01[09:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  75 break
01[09:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:30] {nemo} sounds like my life
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:38] {@Threei}  out
01[09:43] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  75 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:46] {@Threei}  trail to .06
[09:46] {dino} tasr hl s .57
01[09:50] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -FOLD +18% (Phase 3 data from Fabry Monotherapy study 012)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -DGLY +12% (unrest in Ferguson, MO spurring interest in body-mounted cameras & devices)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -AEO +11% (earnings)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -PLAB +4.7% (earnings & Q4 guidance)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -HAIN +4% (earnings)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -FCS +4% (possible sector momentum from Infineon rumors of acquiring a US chip manufacturer)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -RGSE -15% (earnings & share offer)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -HTZ -13% (expects to be well below low-end of FY14 guidance, rental weakness)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -TEDU -9% (earnings)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -YOKU -7% (earnings)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -JRJC -6.5% (financial blog cautious comments after recent upward move)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  -JASO -4.5% (earnings)
[09:53] {mib_stillstanding} dino : your comments a bit cryptic. does it mean hold long stop at .57?
[09:53] {dino} no
[09:53] {nemo} I don't find it cryptic at all
01[09:54] {@Threei}  s = short
[09:54] {dino} hl=500 sh, s=short, .57 my entry
[09:56] {mib_stillstanding} you are short 500 tasr at 15.57? or is it a signal to get in at .57?
[09:56] {dino} tasr stop/cov ..86, -.29
[09:57] {mib_stillstanding} never mind
[09:57] {dino} i was short tasr at .57. i only post entries/exits
[09:57] {nemo} that's where he got in mib.  Dino posts after entry
[09:58] {dino} if i'm not in and post something, i will say trigger. but don't follow me, my style is a bit different
[09:58] {nemo} yeah, Dino likes Rorschach test type charts
[09:59] {dino} ron is about the only one who trades similar
[09:59] {dino} msg spike
[09:59] {nemo} things should get quiet soon
[09:59] {nemo} or quieter
[10:00] {nemo} adbe
[10:00] {nemo} saw it too late
[10:02] {dino} msg sm s .31
[10:04] {dino} cov msg .12, +.29
01[10:04] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:06] {dino} ty
01[10:08] {@Threei}  half out FB
01[10:08] {@Threei}  stop to .01
[10:09] {mib_stillstanding} how do you find stocks to trade during the day?
01[10:10] {@Threei}  scanner and list of usual suspects
[10:12] {dino} tasr rinsed
[10:12] {nemo} MNST
[10:12] {dino} scanners
[10:12] {nemo} more your style dino
[10:13] {mib_stillstanding} what scanners do you use and what do you search for?
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:13] {@Threei}
[10:15] {nemo} algo very inactive...not a surprise for Fed minutes day
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:3 and 1:2 so far, plus opening scalp - no complaints
[10:16] {nemo} aapl
[10:16] {nemo} sorry
[10:28] {nemo} CMI
[10:33] {nemo} DAX doing quite the recovery
01[10:57] {@Threei}  FCEL Financial blog makes cautious comments
01[11:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[11:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[11:16] {nemo} tied the all time clsoing high in SPY
[11:16] {nemo} .82 the all time high
[11:18] {nemo} I lied 199.06
01[11:24] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:24] {@Threei}  breakouts are over for today
[11:40] {dino} smtc drop
[11:41] {mib_stillstanding} wont IWM follow spy and qqq to make new highs?
01[11:42] {@Threei}  it will if they do
[11:44] {mib_stillstanding} they already have
01[11:46] {@Threei}  superimpose SPY and IWM charts
01[11:46] {@Threei}  see whether they match
[11:48] {mib_stillstanding} not exactly
01[11:48] {@Threei}  right
01[11:48] {@Threei}  in general, they do,
01[11:48] {@Threei}  tick by tick, no
01[11:48] {@Threei}  that's your answer
[11:49] {mib_stillstanding} volume very low in iwm. why not trade spy or qqq instead?
01[11:49] {@Threei}  11 million shares?
01[11:49] {@Threei}  low?
01[11:50] {@Threei}  man, you have interesting standards :)
[11:50] {nemo} yeah, wow
01[11:51] {@Threei}  my guess is, your 1000 shares order will have no troubles to get executed, and won't move IWM by itself :)
[11:52] {mib_stillstanding} sorry looked at wrong chart.
[11:53] {mib_stillstanding} what timefame charts do you use?
[11:55] {mib_stillstanding} i used to trade stock index  futures but want to switch to stocks so that I can use the indexes SPY,QQQ,IWM as a leading indicator. does this make any sense?
[11:56] {nemo} to me, completely...
01[11:57] {@Threei}  1 min and daily
01[11:57] {@Threei}  and yes, that's sensible approach
[11:58] {mib_stillstanding} but if trading IWM , what leading indicator can you use? IWM itself should be the leading indicator??:/
01[11:58] {@Threei}  SPY
01[12:01] {@Threei}  (US) President Obama plans statement at 1245ET on murder of journalist James Foley by ISIS
01[12:01] {@Threei}  I assume he will condemn it
01[12:02] {@Threei}  ) Israeli Army reports explosions have been heard in Tel Aviv
[12:02] {nemo} I suggest looking at IWM SPY QQQ and FAS at the same time watching how they interact
01[12:03] {@Threei}  fess up nemo, original version of this message did include couple porno sites which you erased before hitting enter?
[12:03] {nemo} huh?
[12:03] {nemo} what message?
01[12:04] {@Threei}  nevermind... if you don't remember that you typed something 30 sec ago...
01[12:04] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .75 break
[12:04] {nemo} wow, you must be bored to make that connection
01[12:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[12:04] {@Threei}  just a scalp
01[12:05] {@Threei}  of course I am
[12:05] {nemo} I like taking scalps, but you need the right balance between the length of the blade and flexibility
01[12:06] {@Threei}  hmmm
[12:07] {nemo} btw...I've found it easier to start closer to the base of the neck and then move towards the top of the head than to start at the forhead
01[12:08] {@Threei}  "lessons from your favorite barber"
[12:09] {mib_stillstanding} Fb went other way . what happened?
[12:10] {nemo} life
01[12:10] {@Threei}  just invalidated setup
01[12:10] {@Threei}  what do you mean "what happened"?
[12:10] {dino} ask talking heads tonight, they will tell you
01[12:11] {@Threei}  there is no necessity for something meaningful to happen to make a stock go up or down a few cents
[12:11] {mib_stillstanding} kidding
[12:12] {dino} :)
[12:17] {nemo} hey mib, this is what I'm watching:
[12:17] {nemo} vxx strong today
[12:20] {nemo} mmmhhhh, some redundancy in that link not on my charts
[12:21] {mib_stillstanding} nemo: is this realtime? why not use charts from your broker?
[12:23] {mib_stillstanding} what criteria do you use in your scanners ? new highs/lows? most active? confidential?
[12:24] {dino} top 10 hi/lows; .07 movers
01[12:24] {@Threei}  got my proprietary scans in IScan
[12:24] {dino} top 10 % movers up/down too
[12:26] {mib_stillstanding} do you share proprietary scans for the right price?
01[12:26] {@Threei}  those are my standard setups, and they are included in scanner
01[12:26] {@Threei}  and I am pretty sure I share them for the wrong price
[12:27] {nemo} I have charts from the broker, it's just that it's a very nice way to gather all the info, and fairly accurately, all in one place
[12:27] {mib_stillstanding} nemo: real time ?
[12:27] {dino} i use broker charts and free stock charts
[12:28] {nemo} they derive data from bats, and I also have my realtime trading platform charts
[12:28] {dino} scaners are a pesonal edge thing , imo
[12:28] {mib_stillstanding} i thought freestockcharts were delayed?
01[12:28] {@Threei}  no, it's real time
[12:28] {nemo} no, they pipe bats volume and then apply algo's
[12:28] {dino} bats real time it says
[12:28] {nemo} I compare it with my platform charts
[12:30] {mib_stillstanding} i think lightspeed comes with free access to trade ideas scanner
[12:30] {mib_stillstanding} "close enough for govt work"
01[12:31] {@Threei}  that's pretty generous of them
[12:31] {nemo} yep
01[12:31] {@Threei}  look closely in commissions and software fees, to make sure scanner is not built in in a sneaky way
[12:32] {mib_stillstanding} what kind of world are we living in?
[12:32] {nemo} Nature is unkind, it treats the myriad things like strawdogs
01[12:32] {@Threei}  screwed up badly one
01[12:32] {@Threei}  in case you haven't noticed
[12:33] {nemo} thank GOD for alcohol
01[12:33] {@Threei}  but nemo... alcohol doesn't help find answers
[12:33] {mib_stillstanding} drugs are cleaner
01[12:33] {@Threei}  it merely helps forget the questions
[12:33] {nemo} the hallucinogens, yes
[12:33] {mib_stillstanding} or antianxiety ones
[12:34] {nemo} debatable...
[12:34] {nemo} atavan is morphine based
[12:34] {nemo} that'll leave you stopped up too
[12:35] {nemo} so many drugs you can't drink with...that will just never do
[12:35] {nemo} I hang around with Russians
[12:35] {nemo} I'd be a frickin' pariah
[12:35] {nemo} something is afoot, the vxx keeps moving up
[12:36] {nemo} My favorite Chicken Little:
[12:52] {nemo} VXX looking short now
[12:53] {nemo} I liked Qs
[13:02] {nemo} VXX is coming in
[13:03] {nemo}
[13:24] {nemo} so any bets that no matter what gets published we break all time's only about .18 off the current high
01[13:30] {@Threei}  very likely
01[13:31] {@Threei}  I really doubt we will hear something earthshaking
[13:40] {dino} scolding
01[13:41] {@Threei}  ?
[13:43] {dino} obama classic scolding
[13:44] {dino} oh, you guys talking fed minutes?
01[13:44] {@Threei}  yes :)
01[13:44] {@Threei}  but yea... was there "whispering obama mode"?
[13:47] {dino} 07 red
01[13:59] {@Threei}  (IQ) Pentagon is looking at plans to send a small number of additional troops to Iraq; total number would be fewer than 300, mainly to provide security for US installations in Baghdad
[14:00] {nemo} to fly armed drones
01[14:00] {@Threei}  *(US) MINUTES OF THE JULY 29-30 FOMC MEETING: Felt labor market had been faster than expected, conditions noticeably closer to normal
[14:01] {dino} tbt l .27
[14:03] {dino} out tbt .28
[14:03] {dino} f#ck
01[14:04] {@Threei}  - most participants agreed to end portfolio reinvestment of securities following the first rate hike
01[14:05] {@Threei}  After the discussion, all members but one voted to maintain the Committee's target range for the federal funds rate and to reiterate its forward guidance on how it would assess the appropriate timing of the first increase in the target rate and the anticipated behavior of the federal funds rate after it is raised.
[14:05] {nemo} they're getting read to pull the punch bowl
01[14:09] {@Threei}  well, I look at it this way
01[14:09] {@Threei}  for years, working theory was:
01[14:09] {@Threei}  market goes up almost exclusively on Fed's injections,
01[14:10] {@Threei}  and economy is limping forward mostly thanks to Fed's support.
01[14:10] {@Threei}  Withdraw it, both collapse.
01[14:10] {@Threei}  Now we are going to have a chance to test the theory
[14:14] {dino} going to be a long time before they raise, europe is falling apart again
[14:14] {dino} that will slow demand here
[14:15] {dino} imo of course, but figure mid 2015 or later
01[14:15] {@Threei}  I concur
[14:16] {nemo} next year is the worst year for the market in the second term of a president
01[14:16] {@Threei}  none of the measures cured the problem
01[14:16] {@Threei}  it was merely papered over
01[14:16] {@Threei}  and it goes for EU at double rate
[14:17] {dino} problem is govt reg and govt spending on b.s. which creates a welfare class. only fix is as in atlas shrugged..."get out of the way"
[14:18] {nemo} "modern" economic systems with their efficiency allocations allow the human species to expand beyond the "normal" carrying capacity of the environment...sooner or later...that music stops
01[14:19] {@Threei}  and nemo starts celebrating
01[14:19] {@Threei}  or, volcano helps accelerate the process
[14:20] {nemo} stocking up on the right condiments and marinades
[14:21] {dino} what, no beer!
[14:21] {nemo} gotta' be able to get the ingredients
[14:21] {nemo} there'll be plenty of meat available for a while
[14:25] {dino} vhc drop
[14:35] {mib_stillstanding} scanners not picking up anything to trade?
[14:35] {nemo} algo basically dead also
01[14:36] {@Threei}  they do, I just don't see it as reliable signals yet
01[14:36] {@Threei}  right after announcement shock
01[14:36] {@Threei}  after next pullback will get interested in longs
[14:37] {dino} missed vhc, was too quick for entry
01[14:48] {@Threei}  crap
01[14:48] {@Threei}  was looking at .70 IWM for entry
[14:49] {nemo} all time highs?
[14:49] {dino} not the comp
01[14:49] {@Threei}  I believe so
01[14:50] {@Threei}  ugh
01[14:50] {@Threei}  how did I miss IWM
[14:50] {nemo} don't feel bad the bottom was the Monthly Pivot, and I hesitated
[14:51] {dino} leju spike
01[14:53] {@Threei}  crrrrap
01[14:53] {@Threei}  lol
[15:02] {nemo} well, there's the tie
[15:08] {nemo} there we go
[15:09] {nemo} no overhead resistance now
[15:11] {mib_stillstanding} now everything in sync. look for laggers and buy . no?
01[15:12] {@Threei}  yes
01[15:12] {@Threei}  they just don't oull back so far
01[15:13] {@Threei}  pull
01[15:13] {@Threei}  and I am not keen on buying breakouts
01[15:13] {@Threei}  not in this market
[15:16] {mib_stillstanding} not even a double bottom?
01[15:16] {@Threei}  ?
01[15:17] {@Threei}  double bottom I'd buy
[15:17] {nemo} that's buying support to us mib
01[15:17] {@Threei}  but it's not a breakout :)
[15:17] {nemo} what does "mib" stand for?
[15:17] {dino} men in black
[15:18] {nemo} dino made a funny
[15:18] {dino} every now and then
[15:18] {nemo} ................not
[15:18] {mib_stillstanding} its a breakout on some bar after the second bottom. no?
01[15:18] {@Threei}  ummm
[15:19] {nemo} little endian or big endian
01[15:19] {@Threei}  traditional terminologyis: breakout is break of the high, day or otherwidse
01[15:19] {@Threei}  and is trend continuation setup
01[15:20] {@Threei}  souble bottom is trend reversal setup
01[15:20] {@Threei}  double
01[15:20] {@Threei}  thus, two are very different
[15:21] {dino} nemo, since not much going on, opinions on kors and sndk. gut says more up
[15:22] {mib_stillstanding} can a double bottom occur in an uptrend? so its a continuation move?
[15:22] {nemo} sndk likely but at consolidation...we're heading into tech strong season....KORS, less comfortable about that, but will likely fill the daily gap
01[15:22] {@Threei}  it can as a pullback
01[15:23] {@Threei}  but you are confusing different things
01[15:23] {@Threei}  and it's all really irrelevant
[15:23] {nemo} don't talk about Les like that
[15:23] {dino} kors 85.86 area gap think, sndk 100 magnet
01[15:24] {@Threei}  if it's a trend, then double bottom will merely help you find pullback entry, which is merely aggressive type of entry for trend continuation
01[15:24] {@Threei}  so it's a reversal in lower time frame for trend continuation in higher one
01[15:25] {@Threei}  makes sense?
[15:25] {mib_stillstanding} yes
01[15:26] {@Threei}  possible double top in SPY
01[15:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .83 break
01[15:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
01[15:33] {@Threei}  meh
[15:41] {nemo} dino, HTZ
[15:41] {nemo} how'd you miss that
[15:41] {dino} snoozing
[15:42] {nemo} that's the definition of a bull totally blows results and forward guidance and gets bought back up like that
[15:43] {nemo} ahhhh..Carl Icahn @Carl_C_Icahn
[15:43] {dino} yeah, thats a short
[15:43] {nemo} We just filed a 13D on The Hertz Corporation ($HTZ).
[15:44] {dino} ahh ican
[15:44] {nemo} so now we're spitting distance from jobs on Friday
[15:49] {nemo} well index short setups but all time highs and this late....very iffy
01[15:49] {@Threei}  yeah
01[15:54] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:54] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:59] {dino} gn all