Friday, August 22, 2014

Aug 22 2014

Another quiet and moderately profitable day, thanks to couple 1:2ers early in the day.

Session Time: Fri Aug 22 00:00:00 2014
[09:06] {dino} gm 3i
01[09:06] {@Threei}  morning dino
[09:13] {mib_stillstanding} gm
01[09:13] {@Threei}  morning mib
[09:14] {troub} good morning
01[09:14] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:17] {nemo} what's GMCR news
01[09:18] {@Threei}  [GMCR] Announces Licensing Agreement with Kraft Foods Group - announced a multi-year licensing, manufacturing, and distribution agreement for Krafts branded coffees in Keurigportion pack formats compatible with Keurigconsumer and commercial brewing systems in the U.S. Financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.
[09:21] {nemo} low spy volume long weekend started already with Yellen on tap to speak.
01[09:23] {@Threei}  - Russia says aid convoy began moving towards Luhansk and warned against all efforts to halt the humanitarian mission. Russia called on Ukraine, US and EU for political talks (**Note: Reports circulating that convoy was accompanied by small group of pro-Russian separatists but not accompanied by the Red Cross)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  wacthing GMCR dino?
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -PSMI +62% (deal to be acquired by Murata at $12.50/shr, total $471M)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -DYN +19% (deal with DUK energy
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -GMCR +7% (licensing deal with KRFT)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -QUNR +7% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -LOCO +5.6% (signs 20 unit expansion agreement with franchisee in TX)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ANN -2.7% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -INTU -0.9% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .35 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:33] {@Threei}  closed on a trail
01[09:34] {@Threei}  eeck
01[09:35] {@Threei}  rug pull with force
[09:35] {nemo} X
[09:36] {nemo} gmcr testing daily highs
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .95 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:40] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  74 break
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:41] {troub} dino, do you use vwap?
[09:41] {nemo} yes he does
01[09:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:42] {dino} y
[09:42] {troub} mind saying how?
[09:43] {nemo} what does VWAP represent troub?
[09:43] {mib_stillstanding} google VWAP
[09:43] {troub} avg over past x period
[09:43] {mib_stillstanding} GLD never hit .05 but invalidated anyway. correct?
[09:43] {nemo} volume weighted
01[09:43] {@Threei}  yes
[09:44] {nemo} your standard moving averages are price over time
[09:44] {nemo} VWAP indicates institutional involvement
[09:45] {mib_stillstanding} supposedly inst traders get bonuses for buying below vwap and selling above
[09:45] {nemo} yes
[09:45] {mib_stillstanding} whether any usefulness in trading????
[09:46] {nemo} so when price reacts at vwap, you have indications on whether there is institutional buying or selling
[09:46] {nemo} that's why you watch for reactions at vwap
[09:46] {troub} thanks,  IP shows vwap.
[09:46] {troub} IB.  trust of compute myself
[09:47] {troub} darn typing like Vad. trust or compute
01[09:47] {@Threei}  told ya troub, it's contagious
[09:47] {nemo} for instance, currently iwm and spy are living under vwap so we know buying is too weak to hold it or exceed what selling there is
[09:47] {mib_stillstanding} good trading too?
01[09:47] {@Threei}  but no, you had to be like "oh I can handle it"
[09:48] {nemo} what you will also find is that there is often a mean reversion where stocks only move so far away from vwap
[09:49] {mib_stillstanding} does vad use vwap?
[09:49] {troub} IB showing 114.73.
[09:49] {nemo} no vad does not
[09:51] {mib_stillstanding} does this chatroom work on android?
[09:51] {nemo} no only replicants
[09:51] {nemo} sorry...couldn't resist
01[09:51] {@Threei}  chatroom doesn't care how you access it, it's just a browser
01[09:52] {@Threei}  as long as android has browser, it should work, although some older versions might have troubles
[09:52] {nemo} news ROST?
01[09:52] {@Threei}  earnings yesterday after close, ROST
[09:53] {troub} nemo, thanks for explain..
01[09:53] {@Threei}  16:01 [ROST] Reports Q2 $1.14 v $1.09e, R$2.73B v $2.72Be - Guides Q3 $0.83-0.87 v $0.86e, SSS +1-2% - Raises FY14 $4.18-4.26 v $4.23e (prior $4.09-4.21) - SSS +2% - Op margin 14.3% v 13.6% y/y
[09:53] {dino} dyn sm s .11 wide
[09:54] {nemo} Janet speaks in 6
[09:55] {nemo} btw...if you see a good stock stretch more than 1.5% from vwap look for reversion setups
[09:56] {mib_stillstanding} dangerous to trade in front of yellen. no?
[09:56] {nemo} short setups spy and iwm
[09:57] {nemo} if they stay under vwap
[09:57] {nemo} too funny VXX looks the same way
[09:57] {nemo} sheesh
[09:57] {nemo} talk about indecision
[09:57] {nemo} look gmcr and vwap
01[09:59] {@Threei}  wow
[09:59] {nemo} yeah
[09:59] {nemo} saw that hammer on IWM
01[09:59] {@Threei}  (US) Fed Chair Yellen: Remains unclear what the degree of labor slack is in the economy - comments from Jackson Hole symposium
[09:59] {nemo} they're really jerking it
01[10:00] {@Threei}  - Tightening too soon might keep the labor market from recovering fully
01[10:00] {@Threei}  lol... have you seen GLD?
[10:00] {dino} jetting janet, keep dropping the dollars
01[10:01] {@Threei}  killed both sides within two minutes
01[10:01] {@Threei}  - Rapid pace of retirements may pull forward due to weak job market - Inflation has been firming, thanks to both persistent price increases and transitory factors
[10:03] {nemo} troub, see how gmcr having trouble getting above vwap?
[10:04] {troub} yes ,127.02
[10:04] {mib_stillstanding} anyone here using lightspeed?
[10:05] {nemo} so they tested above it so far
[10:05] {nemo} which makes sense, a stock with that news will likely try to test the highs of the day
[10:05] {troub} nemo, IB showing 127.25 when GMCR was at .71??
[10:06] {nemo} yeah, depends on the package, but think of it as a magic marker line anyway
[10:06] {troub} OK now droped .64  with price at .41
[10:07] {nemo} gmcr has tested old support and stayed under, yet is basically sitting on vwap now,
[10:12] {nemo} here comes the test of the highs
[10:12] {mib_stillstanding} VWAP should not need number of bars as a parameter. correct?
[10:13] {nemo} it needs volume to calculate so as volume accrues it can be calculated
01[10:18] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[10:19] {@Threei}  If holds  115
[10:21] {nemo} btw...because VWAP is volume weighted, the longer the day progresses, the harder it becomes to change it's slope
01[10:23] {@Threei}  stop to .04
01[10:24] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:24] {@Threei}  by the book from here
[10:25] {mib_stillstanding} in at .11 trying to get half off at .21
01[10:26] {@Threei}  take ,.20
[10:26] {mib_stillstanding} half off
01[10:26] {@Threei}  it was at .22 a min ago, why troubles getting out at .21?
[10:27] {mib_stillstanding} got out at .21
[10:27] {mib_stillstanding} faster than i can type
[10:27] {mib_stillstanding} stop still at .04?
01[10:28] {@Threei}  [10:24] {@Threei} by the book from here
01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:1 hit, stop .09
01[10:30] {@Threei}  to .14
01[10:31] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:32] {mib_stillstanding} out rest at .30 . smooth
[10:33] {mib_stillstanding} did not want to hold longer as HOD at .35 .sensible?
01[10:34] {@Threei}  personal preferences
[10:36] {mib_stillstanding} are you trying for 1:3,1:4
01[10:36] {@Threei}  normally, yes
[10:40] {mib_stillstanding} IWM s
[10:41] {nemo} hard to say here, you're shorting into the hole
[10:42] {mib_stillstanding} looked like bear flag
[10:42] {nemo} not saying your wrong, but you're in the middle of the range right at vwap low volume Friday at end of August
[10:43] {nemo} what does that tell you?
[10:46] {nemo} chop chop chop
[10:46] {nemo} short at resistance buy at support
[10:46] {mib_stillstanding} lost 5 cents (demo)
[10:50] {mib_stillstanding} nemo you were right
[10:50] {dino} dyn cov .31, +.80
[10:50] {nemo} broken clock moment
[10:53] {troub} excel.Dino
01[10:53] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:53] {dino} ty
[10:53] {nemo} I think VXX is long for the day
[10:55] {mib_stillstanding} keep logging off accidentally
[10:57] {mib_stillstanding} problem is when logged off you dont get to see running posts from earlier in the day. any way to fix this?
01[10:57] {@Threei}  no
[10:58] {mib_stillstanding} i just pinned the tab in firfox which should help. no 'x' to click on.
01[11:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
01[11:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:24] {dino} calling it a day, tee time in hour. gl all
01[11:25] {@Threei}  have a good weekend dino
01[11:25] {@Threei}  beware of golf balls
01[11:25] {@Threei}  and tennis elbow
[11:25] {troub} keep it in the fairway dino
[11:25] {dino} ty
[11:42] {mib_stillstanding} fb in at .51
01[11:53] {@Threei}  (RU) Russia strategic bombers have been conducting patrols in neutral waters such as the Norwegian and North seas recently - Russia press
01[11:53] {@Threei}  (UR) US Defense Official: Russia has up to 18,000 "combat ready" troops on its border with Ukraine, many units positioned two to ten miles from the border - CNN - Russian forces are more overt, more aggressive and out in the open - Minutes ago, NATO's Rasmussen said the alliance is seeing an alarming build-up of Russian ground and air forces stationed on the border of Ukraine; Russia continues to escalate the situation and deepen a crisis that Russia has created itself
[11:53] {mib_stillstanding} stop still at 40?
01[11:54] {@Threei}  will trail after .55 break
[11:56] {mib_stillstanding} cup and handle now?
01[11:57] {@Threei}  kind of
01[12:02] {@Threei}  let's trail to .44
01[12:02] {@Threei}  time for easy moves is over
[12:02] {mib_stillstanding} another horrible oversimplification:)
[12:03] {nemo} wish I had seen GMCR at that VWAP touch around 11
[12:03] {mib_stillstanding} nemo: no scanner for this?
[12:04] {nemo} I have nothing that pops up that info.  it didn't quite make it.  Freestockcharts has as an alert for when it touches, but not a proximity alert, which would be more helpful
[12:04] {nemo} VXX
[12:05] {nemo} can't hold below 28
01[12:10] {@Threei}  meh
[12:10] {mib_stillstanding} out at .43
[12:31] {mib_stillstanding} wtg?
01[12:31] {@Threei}  way to go
[12:32] {mib_stillstanding} waiting
01[12:32] {@Threei}  ?
01[12:32] {@Threei}  stop speaking in tongues. I have troubles understanding plain English on Fridays
01[12:33] {@Threei}  or mondays
[12:33] {mib_stillstanding} i thought when you always said wtg you meant waiting..
01[12:34] {@Threei}  no
01[12:34] {@Threei}  it's common abbreviation for way to go
[12:36] {mib_stillstanding} any more trades expected today?
01[12:37] {@Threei}  I would have to have time machine to answer that
[12:42] {mib_stillstanding} or you could take rest of day off..
01[12:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .90 break
01[13:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[13:00] {nemo} IWM looks short below .46 if stays under .52
01[13:00] {@Threei}  (UR) NATO: Russia artillery has been used against Ukraine, there are multiple reports of direct Russia involvement in the Ukraine issue - transfer of advanced weapons from Russia to separatists have been observed
[13:03] {nemo} VXX DB
[13:11] {mib_stillstanding} wmt l .91
[13:12] {mib_stillstanding} signal off what timeframe 1 min?
01[13:12] {@Threei}  yes
[13:33] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:33] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[13:33] {nathan} how's been?
01[13:33] {@Threei}  brutally slow august, but we manage
[13:34] {nathan} yeah, i've read u everyday
01[13:35] {@Threei}  WMT starts moving
01[13:40] {@Threei}  stop to .84
[13:42] {mib_stillstanding} scary looking double top
[13:44] {nathan} wow twtr
[14:07] {mib_stillstanding} out at .84
01[14:07] {@Threei}  yup
[14:30] {nathan} have a nice weekend
01[14:30] {@Threei}  (EU) ECB chief Draghi: Reiterates stand ready to adjust policy stance further - comments at Jackson Hole - preparations for the ABS program are moving forward quickly - Council would use unconvential instruments to anchor inflation expectations - confident June measures to help demand
01[14:30] {@Threei}  take care nathan
[14:38] {troub} good weekend all
01[14:38] {@Threei}  take care troub
[14:42] {mib_stillstanding} bye
[15:12] {nemo} market doesn't care about Ukraine, gap up Monday
01[15:12] {@Threei}  unless...
[15:15] {nemo} market has a date with 200
[15:17] {nemo} IWM Weekly R2 at .70
[15:26] {nemo} VXX
[15:29] {nemo} no fear
01[15:30] {@Threei}  some
01[15:30] {@Threei}  not much
01[15:35] {@Threei}  OK guys, let's have a good weekend
[15:35] {nemo} Nasdrovya
01[15:35] {@Threei}  just a week or two more of this swamp