Monday, September 29, 2014

Sept 29 2014

Topping pattern, minimal risk for a large reward

And, right after:

(Chart courtesy of a broker)

Session Time: Mon Sep 29 00:00:00 2014
[09:03] {cosmo} so do I get the day off today?
01[09:04] {@Threei}  why?
[09:04] {cosmo} that thing i did yeaterday... ya know
01[09:04] {@Threei}  you overestimate my memory span
01[09:05] {@Threei}  yesterday?? :)
[09:05] {cosmo} with the @ symbol o the nick list
[09:05] {cosmo} on
[09:05] {dino} gm
01[09:05] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {troub} good morning
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:24] {ese} morning
01[09:24] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:25] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:25] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:25] {RonS} hello
[09:25] {jfjf64} how do I inbox v
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  doubleclick my name
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AMBI +90% (being acquired by Daiichi Sankyo for $15/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -DWA +28% (Softbank reportedly in talks to purchase the company for $32/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ATHL +25% (being acquired by ECA for $5.93B cash)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TIBX +22% (to be acquired by Vista Equity Partners for $24/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EXEL +19% (announced positive results from Phase III trial of Cobimetinib)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ALIM +18% (FDA approve Iluvien in treating chronic diabetic macular edema)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -HEB +13% (expanded research on potential Ebola treatments)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ECYT +12% (positive survival data treating Adenocarcinoma
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CVEO -30% (reaffirms 3Q Rev guidance; moving domicile to Canada)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ELGX -4.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EWZ -6.5% (Brazil election speculation/polls and economic outlook)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TNXP -49% (data)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  ITMN Halted, information request
[09:29] {RonS} cveo pounded i guess over this eca deal
01[09:30] {@Threei}  {@Threei} -CVEO -30% (reaffirms 3Q Rev guidance; moving domicile to Canada)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .35 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
[09:32] {ese} well well...a pre october tank
01[09:34] {@Threei}  hopefully
[09:34] {ese} corection time....8 days so far look like........
01[09:36] {@Threei}  no go
[09:36] {dino} gap 300 pts lower dji
[09:36] {ese} "I ain't got nothin but love girl....eight days a week".....Beatles
[09:36] {dino} 195.70 spy gap
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: PRU  .50 break hl
01[09:38] {@Threei}  spread...
01[09:38] {@Threei}  disregard
01[09:39] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .80 break
[09:39] {nemo} weird morning
01[09:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:42] {nemo} ist the market trading?
[09:43] {ese} it miht it to ya?
[09:43] {ese} might
[09:44] {ese} 06:39 (HK) Reportedly the China Peoples Liberation Army has given the Hong Kong Police 48 hours to stop the demonstrations in Hong Kong before it intervenes; separate reports say military units are moving into Shenzhen - China press - Source
[09:45] {ese} nice place to live.....
[09:46] {dino} crzo sm l .35
01[09:47] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
[09:47] {dino} ironic, "lieberation" army
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:47] {dino} db l .76
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:48] {dino} gj
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:48] {@Threei}  out
[09:48] {dino} pcrx smr l .75 wide
01[09:48] {@Threei}  not bad for 5 cents risk
01[09:50] {@Threei}  trail AIG to .86
01[09:51] {@Threei}  getting annoyed with it
[09:51] {jfjf64} keeptalkin bout it
01[09:51] {@Threei}  lol
[09:53] {dino} out pcrx .37,
[09:53] {dino} +.62
01[09:53] {@Threei}  "Don't try to teach a pig to sing. It will frustrate you, annoy the pig and delay the damned BBQ!"
01[09:53] {@Threei}  wtg
[09:53] {jfjf64} lol
[09:54] {dino} ty
[09:58] {dino} added vxx puts
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (US) AUG PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -1.0% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -4.1% V -1.4%E
01[10:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  ,20 break
01[10:01] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:02] {@Threei}  ugh
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .35 break
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
01[10:11] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:12] {nemo} ADBE looks short
[10:13] {nemo} or two way
01[10:16] {@Threei}  come on IWM, you can do better than this
01[10:17] {@Threei}  take .50 and...
01[10:17] {@Threei}  good girl
01[10:17] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:18] {@Threei}  1:4 in your near future, IWM (gypsy told me)
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:19] {@Threei}  and last spike please
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:4 close enough
01[10:19] {@Threei}  out
[10:24] {dino} out crzo .65,+.30
01[10:25] {@Threei}  nice
[10:26] {dino} ty
01[10:26] {@Threei}  not bad first hour
[10:26] {jfjf64} ty
01[10:26] {@Threei}  small losses, large wins
[10:26] {nemo} considering how dead the market is
[10:26] {nemo} strength starting to build though
[10:27] {jfjf64} I think I read that in trading book small losses large wins
[10:27] {jfjf64} nice
[10:27] {jfjf64} no time for pig on bbq
[10:29] {jfjf64} cat 5 mi looks like up
[10:38] {ese} L amag .948 1/2
[10:40] {RonS} took crzo .29 out .85 +.56  thanks dino
[10:40] {ese} nice one ron
[10:41] {dino} ron, gj, yw
[10:55] {jfjf64} hey anybody there
01[10:55] {@Threei}  nope
[10:55] {jfjf64} k
01[10:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
[11:01] {ese} i got cut off jf....but am back like bad breath
[11:01] {nemo} more like Herpes
[11:01] {ese} lol
[11:02] {jfjf64} lol
[11:02] {ese} stopped amag .81 -.13  should've taken the hundred when i had the chance....
[11:02] {jfjf64} thought I did also
[11:02] {ese} ah well first day back....gotta get the cobwebs out
01[11:02] {@Threei}  lol
06[11:05] * @Threei sends ese a broom to deal with those cobwebs (wife said she won't need it today)
01[11:06] {@Threei}  no go
01[11:09] {@Threei}  things slowed down
[11:13] {dino} marketes going for open gap
[11:13] {dino} markets
01[11:16] {@Threei}  still btfd
[11:16] {dino} comp filled
[11:16] {nemo} was just gonna' say that Vad, SPY recovering the 50 day now
01[11:16] {@Threei}  yeah, impressive strength
01[11:23] {@Threei}  Geopolitical tensions in various other global hotspots are also in focus this morning. In Ukraine, more clashes over the weekend between government and pro-Russian separatists left 12 people dead, making the ceasefire look even more hollow. In France, a member of the ultra-right National Front has been elected to the Senate for the first time. In Spain, Catalan leader Artur Mas has signed a decree to hold an independence vote for the region on November 9th
[11:24] {dino} out db .89, +.13
[11:24] {cosmo} Just don't let Spain count the votes...
01[11:25] {@Threei}  Putin will gladly do it for them
01[11:25] {@Threei}  93% for separation
01[11:26] {@Threei}  he offered his services to Scotland, they refused and regretted ever since
[11:26] {cosmo} should be a lesson
[11:30] {ese} hey thanks for the broom......can make use of that for off ....cya tomorrow
[11:31] {nemo} like to use it as a suppository for him
01[11:33] {@Threei}  North Korea's authoritarian leader makes no public appearances for three weeks, skipping a high-profile event he usually attends. An official documentary shows him limping and overweight and mentions his "discomfort."
01[11:35] {@Threei}  In a documentary with footage from August that showed a limping Kim inspecting a tile factory, "Our marshal continues to light the path for the people like a flame despite his discomfort," a narrator said.
01[11:35] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:35] {@Threei}  what a wording
[11:36] {dino} keep them uneducated and they believe anything
01[11:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .42 break
01[11:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[11:58] {@Threei}  hey... we are up 2 cents!
01[11:58] {@Threei}  isn't it exciting?
01[12:07] {@Threei}  meh
01[12:07] {@Threei}  not exciting
[12:30] {nemo} IWM VWAP bounce possible
01[12:35] {@Threei}  interestingly enough, this was the case where shorting dull market would have worked
[12:36] {nemo} finnies IWM SPY @VWAP
01[12:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[12:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[12:49] {@Threei}  half out
01[12:50] {@Threei}  stop .54
01[12:50] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:50] {@Threei}  to .59
01[12:52] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[12:52] {@Threei}  btw, Logix users, note that this pop-up for partial selling is not disappearing if you click away, so you can prepare it in advance
[12:53] {jfjf64} ?
01[12:53] {@Threei}  which part?
01[12:54] {@Threei}  pop-up menus are usually stay on only while you are hovering
[12:54] {jfjf64} correct
01[12:54] {@Threei}  if you move your mouse or click away, they disappear
[12:54] {jfjf64} cant go anywhere else
01[12:54] {@Threei}  this makes them inconvenient, as you would have to keep the cursor on them
01[12:54] {@Threei}  this oen is not
01[12:55] {@Threei}  clickm it pops up,
01[12:55] {@Threei}  do whateever you want elsewehere, it remains
[12:55] {jfjf64} lets try
01[12:55] {@Threei}  so when it's time to sell 50% or 100%, return cursor to it and click
01[12:58] {@Threei}  works, jf?
[12:58] {jfjf64} yes sir
01[12:58] {@Threei}  :)
[12:58] {jfjf64} works nicely
01[12:59] {@Threei}  stop .64 for now
[13:01] {nemo} BBBY
01[13:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .25 break
01[13:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[13:29] {@Threei}  stop to .19
01[13:30] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:30] {@Threei}  to .24
01[14:11] {@Threei}  (ES) Spain Constitutional Court reportedly suspends Catalonia's move to set up an independence referendum - press ***Earlier today, Spain government asked the Constitutional Court to declare Catalonia referendum illegal
01[14:13] {@Threei}  [FB] Announces the launch of Atlas advertising network - company blog Atlas delivers people-based marketing, helping marketers reach real people across devices, platforms and publishers. Atlas can now connect online campaigns to actual offline sales, ultimately proving the real impact that digital campaigns have in driving incremental reach and new sales.
[14:16] {nathan} hi gents
01[14:16] {@Threei}  hey nathan
[14:17] {nathan} nice shots this morning: FB, IWM...
[14:24] {nemo} bounce time?
01[14:25] {@Threei}  yes but I'd rather look to short the top of the bounce
[14:31] {nemo} SPY having trouble with VWAP
[14:31] {nemo} neither finnies nor IWM can get back to VWAP so far
01[14:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[14:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[14:42] {@Threei}  fast...
01[14:42] {@Threei}  .25 break is valid too
01[14:42] {@Threei}  just wanted aggressive
[14:47] {nathan} still valid 3i?
01[14:48] {@Threei}  if holding .15
01[14:54] {@Threei}  let's go VXX
01[14:54] {@Threei}  die SPY
[14:56] {nathan} snif snif...
01[14:57] {@Threei}  sigh
[15:00] {dino} markets can't make up their minds
[15:01] {dino} altho 07 scrolling green
[15:07] {nemo} guess we should have gone with my bottom call
[15:13] {nemo} spy likely would like to hold the 50 day
01[15:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[15:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[15:19] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[15:19] {@Threei}  afternoon is totally out of whack
[15:21] {nemo} 50 day .70ish
[15:23] {dino} no kidding, bounces, drops, bounces...
[15:23] {nemo} SPY touched 50 day
[15:23] {nemo} it went to S1, now to 50 day
01[15:24] {@Threei}  last try
01[15:24] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[15:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[15:27] {@Threei}  come on SPY, it's time
01[15:27] {@Threei}  VXX clear sailing to .80
[15:30] {nemo} interesting no-man's land above the  50 day and just below 198
01[15:30] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:34] {dino} good read on vxx, i had us going green
01[15:34] {@Threei}  want .80...
01[15:34] {@Threei}  chart is clear up to that
[15:34] {nemo} likely VWAP ceiling at .72
01[15:41] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:43] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:43] {@Threei}  whew
01[15:44] {@Threei}  got my last play
[15:44] {jfjf64} nice
06[15:44] * @Threei throws a 25-lbs dumbell at nemo
06[15:45] * @Threei changes his mind, takes that one back and throws 40 lb one instead
01[15:55] {@Threei}  thank you all
01[15:55] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow