Thursday, October 16, 2014

Oct 16 2014

A bit hectic day with a few stops, but several nicely timed entries for large gains kept the day nicely profitable. Classic case of "cut your losses short, let your profits run."


(US) Ahead of the Close Market Snapshot
Thu, 16 Oct 2014 15:57 PM EST

US Indices:
- Dow Jones -0.1%
- S&P500 +0.1%
- Nasdaq +0.2%

- Industrials and Materials are the leading sectors heading into the close, while Consumer Goods are underperforming. HPQ is a notable gainer in tech on expected resumption of buybacks. Financial are led by 2% rise in BAC, even as GS is down over 2% after Q3 report earlier. In materials, EOG and APC are up 3-4% on sizable bounce in energy, and Industrials are led by 3-4% gains in FLS and ITT. Consumer names are seeing some retreat - KO is down 1.4% while TSN is off by over 4%.

Fixed-Income: Bond markets are notably more stable today and yields are creeping higher after an early Wednesday "flash crash" that sent the 10-year below 2% for the first time since early 2013. Mixed Fed-speak and economic data have helped to restore the two-way trade action - industrial production and weekly claims were better than expected, Philly Fed shrank but topped consensus, while Fed's Bullard suggested a delay to end of QE might be considered. Greek bonds remain under heavy pressure, with the 10-year up over 100bps above 8.6%.
- US 2-yr: +4bps at 0.34%
- 10-yr: +2bps at 2.15%
- 30-yr: +2bps at 2.94%
- 2-10 spread: -2bps at 1.83%

- WTI Nov crude oil $82.82; Snapback rally after a test below the $80/brl level in early AM; Following multi-year build in API petroleum inventories released overnight, DOE Crude build was also much higher than the 2M expected at 8.9M.

- Spot Gold $1,240/oz; Consolidating AM gains to 5-week highs around $1,250.
- Spot Silver $17.44/oz; Retreated from AM rally 3-week high above $17.80.
- Dec Copper $2.98/lb; Lows below $2.96 in early AM trade, the lowest level since mid-March.

Key Earnings at the close:

Session Time: Thu Oct 16 00:00:00 2014

[08:28] {Jenh} Good morning Vad!
01[08:44] {@Threei}  morning jen :)
[08:46] {Jenh} good morning!
01[08:47] {@Threei}  you are early riser
[08:47] {Jenh} i'm trying :)
01[08:48] {@Threei}  on west coast it's early enough, lol
[08:50] {Jenh} oh i didn't realize you were on the west.
[08:50] {Jenh} i'm on the east
[08:59] {RonS} gm...3i's worry misplaced:  BREAKING NEWS
[08:59] {RonS} Today Obama said "don't be alarmed about my cancelled fundraiser. If this were a real emergency I would have cancelled golf."
01[09:00] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:00] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:15] {@Threei}  *(US) SEPT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.0% V 0.4%E -
[09:16] {RonS} lol...  hello CDC? Yes, I know this Ebola thing is taking all the inventory but we really need some body bags down here on Wall St
01[09:16] {@Threei}  lol
01[09:16] {@Threei}  twitter is merciless today?
[09:16] {troub} good morning. or is it?
01[09:17] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  channeling nemo?
[09:17] {troub} no, don't own a AK-47
01[09:19] {@Threei}  neither does he, I believe he moved right up to grenade launchers as mice eradicating device
[09:23] {jfjf64} mornin
01[09:24] {@Threei}  jf :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  nemo's away, and dino probably won't be in today
[09:24] {Jenh} good morning Rons, troub, jf!
01[09:24] {@Threei}  we have market all to ourselves
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -IBIO +51% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -OSUR +12% (momentum from news FDA reportedly approached the company about developing an Ebola test kit)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CHK +11% (sold Marcellus Utica Shale assets for $5.4B)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -SBLK +11% (momentum from EGLE news; positive broker comments)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -VIMC +10% (awarded $39.8M contract in Taiyuan City of Shangxi Province)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -IDT +9% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -SVA +9% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CMRX +7% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -UNH +3.2% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -HCA +3% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -LAKE +2.6% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -PGNX -2.5% (CNBC mention as alternative Ebola play)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -NFLX -22% (reported, disappointing guidance and metrics)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EXTR -20% (guides Q1 lower)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ESPR -15% (priced 4.25M shares at $20/shr)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -BHI -11% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TZOO -10% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -INSY -6% (FDA issues refusal letter on Dronabinol oral NDA - new studies needed)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -MAT -5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GS -3.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EBAY -3.3% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -FCS -2.7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  going to sit out first 5 min or so
01[09:27] {@Threei}  opening is likely to be too hectic to control risk properly
[09:28] {jfjf64} sounds lk plan
01[09:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .95 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  119
01[09:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .85 break hl
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  72
01[09:41] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:43] {@Threei}  got away
01[09:44] {@Threei}  meh GLD
01[09:45] {@Threei}  ugh FB
01[09:47] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .70 break
01[09:47] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:55] {dino} sn sm l .03
[09:57] {RonS} just remembered oil report bottom of hour...
[09:58] {RonS} losing it, that was yesterday...
01[09:59] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  natural gas today
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:59] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 20.7 V 19.8E
01[09:59] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:00] {@Threei}  wow
01[10:00] {@Threei}  volatility
[10:00] {dino} baba sm l .10
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) OCT NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 54 V 59E
01[10:01] {@Threei}  sheesh VXX
01[10:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .30 break hl
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[10:11] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[10:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:15] {dino} dji gap 15409 area fwiw
01[10:15] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:16] {@Threei}  back and forth day
01[10:20] {@Threei}  (EU) Russia President Putin: South Stream gas pipeline is being held up for political reasons, there could be major transit risks for European gas supplies this winter - Russia could reduce gas supplies to Europe if Ukraine siphons gas from transit pipelines
[10:21] {RonS} ...if?
[10:21] {dino} saw that coming
[10:21] {RonS} dal daily reminds me of the song "should i stay or should i go"...
[10:21] {dino} cbi sm l .05
[10:22] {dino} spike
01[10:23] {@Threei}  what the deuce
[10:23] {RonS} Bullard comments spiking markets
[10:23] {dino} out cbi .48, +.43
[10:23] {dino} out sn .32, +.29
[10:25] {RonS} wtf?  Fed's Bullard: If Economy Strong Could End QE in December -Bloomberg TV
[10:25] {dino} idiot
01[10:25] {@Threei}  he is not even a voter in Fed
[10:29] {dino} out baba .37, +.27
[10:29] {dino} epam drop
[10:31] {dino} sm l .80
01[10:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[10:32] {@Threei}  If holds  71
[10:32] {RonS} EPAM Systems CEO Arkadiy Dobkin Sells $215,450 in $EPAM
01[10:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:33] {dino} bit late on the sale wasn't he
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:34] {@Threei}  better
01[10:34] {@Threei}  1:4
[10:34] {dino} gj
01[10:34] {@Threei}  out
01[10:34] {@Threei}  ty
[10:35] {dino} out epam .07, +.27
[10:38] {dino} 07 scanners scrolling green
[10:40] {dino} lol, out hclp calls from last week, +3.00 or, wait for it...68%
01[10:41] {@Threei}  nice
[10:41] {dino} yeah, $3k
01[10:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .60 break
[10:46] {dino} fcx wall .00
01[10:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:46] {dino} out fcx .04, +.33 ty 3i
01[10:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:47] {@Threei}  yw
01[10:48] {@Threei}  Texas hospital chief to apologize for misinformation, mistakes made at Dallas hospital treating Ebola
[10:51] {dino} any of you guys watch "big break" on golf channel? they are at barefoot resort, i play those courses when down in myrtle beach
01[10:52] {@Threei}  you need to invite ese
01[10:52] {@Threei}  where is the slacker today btw
01[11:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[11:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[11:09] {@Threei}  stop to .84
01[11:11] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:30] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[11:30] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[11:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:30] {@Threei}  on watch though
01[11:30] {@Threei}  whole gap has been closed and then some
01[11:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break
01[11:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:31] {@Threei}  1:3
[11:31] {jfjf64} oh boy
01[11:31] {@Threei}  way to bottom fish, 3i
[11:32] {jfjf64} go baby
01[11:32] {@Threei}  why thank you 3i
01[11:32] {@Threei}  1:4
01[11:33] {@Threei}  out
01[11:35] {@Threei}  1:5
[11:35] {jfjf64} good catch
06[11:35] * @Threei takes a bow
[11:35] {jfjf64} how ya do that
01[11:36] {@Threei}  throw a dart?
[11:36] {jfjf64} lol
01[11:36] {@Threei}  sorry, no... chicken entrails
[11:40] {jfjf64} 1:9.5
01[11:41] {@Threei}  that's beayond my math abilities
[11:41] {jfjf64} ahh give ya 1:10
01[11:41] {@Threei}  gotta take shoes off
[11:43] {jfjf64} watchin dal
01[11:43] {@Threei}  so jf... I am going to share this huge secret
[11:43] {jfjf64} yes
01[11:45] {@Threei}  to nail the reversal like this you need a dartboard soaked in tea leaves and densely decorated with chicken entrails; for a dart you use the ear bone of a бат
01[11:45] {@Threei}  bat
[11:45] {jfjf64} lol
[11:46] {jfjf64} sometimes ear of bat does the trick
01[11:46] {@Threei}  many skip the tea leaves soaking part, but it's crucial
01[11:47] {@Threei}  some claim that a bat must be born between 1 and 15 of March, but it's a myth... anywhere from Feb to April is fine
[11:47] {jfjf64} im june
[11:48] {jfjf64} grrr
01[11:48] {@Threei}  bat, not you
01[11:49] {@Threei}  or is it where your nick hails from? June fairy or something...
[11:49] {jfjf64} yes
01[11:50] {@Threei}  got it
[11:50] {jfjf64} of course
01[11:52] {@Threei}  your DAL should be ready soon
01[11:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DAL  .75 break
[11:52] {jfjf64} tea leaves still soaking
01[11:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[11:53] {@Threei}  very tight stop
01[11:53] {@Threei}  nope
[11:53] {jfjf64} tight stop
[11:53] {jfjf64} 4 reason
01[11:54] {@Threei}  that's OK, better small rinse than to get caught in cascade
01[11:55] {@Threei}  with this volatility risk control is absolutely paramount
[11:55] {jfjf64} .80
[11:56] {jfjf64} not today
[11:56] {jfjf64} dal
[11:56] {jfjf64} rince job
[12:03] {RonS} that hailstorm took out 90% of the roofs in the area... let the pounding begin!
01[12:04] {@Threei}  ouch
[12:04] {RonS} between car and roofs they figure insurance hit of $225 million
01[12:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[12:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[12:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[12:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:12] {dino} that sucks ron
01[12:13] {@Threei}  not ready yet
01[12:16] {@Threei}  now it is, lol
01[12:16] {@Threei}  somewhat patternless
01[12:18] {@Threei}  After plunging lower though the first hours of trading, European equities reversed and moved higher after 06:00ET thanks to talk the ECB was looking to make life easier for Greece. US futures remained beaten down and the 10-year yield briefly dipped back below 2%, however stocks zigzagged higher from the cash open, aided by soothing comments from Fed's Bullard.
01[12:18] {@Threei}  Fickle Fed Governor James Bullard sent things higher after remarking in a TV interview that the Fed should consider delaying the end of the QE taper this month to help stem the slide in inflation expectations and give the Fed another month to gather the economic data on which rate hikes would depend.
01[12:18] {@Threei}  Separately, there were conflicting reports out during the European session regarding ECB haircuts on Greek debt. A Greek official said the ECB would loosen its collateral rules in order to give Greek banks access to more liquidity, while another said the issue was only being discussed. Later the ECB clarified that it would adjust haircuts on Greece government bonds and guaranteed bank bonds used as collateral for ECB loans
[12:19] {dino} greece? unbelievable, just default already
01[12:19] {@Threei}  lol
01[12:19] {@Threei}  this is like the guy who loved his dog so much, he trimmed his tail by parts
01[12:19] {@Threei}  WTI crude fell below $80 for the first time since June 2012. The front-month contract briefly saw a $70 handle before bouncing back up to around $81.
01[12:20] {@Threei}  Putin: wtf...
[12:20] {RonS} what sucks dino, are the two neighbors who replaced their roofs a week before the, would i be po'd...
01[12:20] {@Threei}  oh boy
[12:21] {dino} that would suck. i can relate to both sides, i was a property/casualty broker for 15 years. what a nightmare thats going to be
[12:24] {RonS} wow emes
[12:24] {dino} yeah saw that
[12:25] {dino} check out hclp too, i sold my calls 2 bucks too early
01[12:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[12:39] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[12:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:40] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:45] {jfjf64} dal
01[12:45] {@Threei}  missed VXX call, jf...
[12:45] {jfjf64} getting push
[12:45] {jfjf64} grr
[12:45] {jfjf64} playing with computer
[12:46] {jfjf64} what time was cll
[12:46] {jfjf64} call
01[12:46] {@Threei}  12:39] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .50 break
01[12:46] {@Threei}  [12:39] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[12:46] {@Threei}  [12:39] {@Threei} 1:1
01[12:46] {@Threei}  [12:40] {@Threei} 1:2
01[12:49] {@Threei}  wow DAL
[12:50] {jfjf64} yeah
[12:50] {jfjf64} buybuybuybuy
[12:50] {jfjf64} lol
[12:50] {jfjf64} rats
01[12:50] {@Threei}  jf... no one said that bat had to be crazy
[12:51] {jfjf64} what happen no eboli in planes
01[12:55] {@Threei}  maybe they just decided to ground all their planes... hence, no ebola, safety's first... and stock went up
[12:57] {jfjf64} or ceo was soakin tea leaves
01[12:59] {@Threei}  or smoking them
[12:59] {jfjf64} 1.00move
[12:59] {jfjf64} maybe
[13:00] {jfjf64} what goes up must come down
[13:00] {jfjf64} get dart ready
[13:00] {jfjf64} lol
01[13:01] {@Threei}  need bounce now
[13:01] {jfjf64} yes
[13:01] {jfjf64} hod
[13:01] {jfjf64} in reach
01[13:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .50 break
01[13:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[13:03] {@Threei}  still valid
01[13:04] {@Threei}  let's do double top, DAL
01[13:04] {@Threei}  good boy
01[13:04] {@Threei}  die
[13:05] {jfjf64} mkt die
01[13:06] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:08] {@Threei}  nice top hunting 3i
01[13:08] {@Threei}  why thank you
[13:08] {jfjf64} yes
[13:08] {jfjf64} dal
[13:08] {jfjf64} didn't lk comment
01[13:09] {@Threei}  whatever, I am fine with 1:2 at this time of the day
[13:09] {dino} gj
[13:10] {jfjf64} me too
01[13:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .25 break
01[13:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[13:25] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[13:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[13:36] {@Threei}  feels like market's topping
01[13:37] {@Threei}  ugh
01[13:37] {@Threei}  not yet
[13:37] {jfjf64} dal
[13:37] {jfjf64} pushin
[13:49] {jfjf64} vxx time
01[13:49] {@Threei}  looks like
[13:50] {jfjf64} ya called top
[13:50] {jfjf64} topping sd I say
[13:52] {jfjf64} ya have big wick spy
01[13:52] {@Threei}  out of bounds print
01[13:53] {@Threei}  ignore it
[13:53] {jfjf64} fig out prob had with logix
[13:53] {jfjf64} I think
01[13:53] {@Threei}  no
[13:53] {jfjf64} shut off Skype no prob
[13:54] {jfjf64} weird
[13:54] {RonS} lol...
01[13:54] {@Threei}  skype eats a lot of bandwidth
[13:54] {RonS} true dat
[13:54] {RonS} and computer cpu power
01[13:54] {@Threei}  also... you need to check if your Skype is being used as a supernod
[13:55] {jfjf64} what
01[13:55] {@Threei}  and shut it off if so
01[13:55] {@Threei}  this is nasty behind the curtain trick
[13:55] {jfjf64} k will look into
01[13:55] {@Threei}  be careful doing that,
[13:55] {jfjf64} why
01[13:55] {@Threei}  you need to edit registry to shut it off
01[13:56] {@Threei}  if you are not comfortable with that, better ask someone knowledgeable
01[13:56] {@Threei}  in supernod mode your skype becomes one of their servers
01[13:56] {@Threei}  using YOUR CPU resources
01[13:58] {@Threei}  fo a search for "how to disable skype supernode"
01[13:58] {@Threei}  do
01[13:58] {@Threei}  a lot of links, some are more clear, some less
[13:58] {jfjf64} ty sir
01[13:59] {@Threei}  np... let me see if I can find the one I used
[13:59] {jfjf64} think there teck guys logix wd of said
01[13:59] {@Threei}  how do they know what you run and ion what configuration
01[14:00] {@Threei}
01[14:01] {@Threei}  this is unstructions I used
01[14:02] {@Threei}  or this, even more detailed:
[14:04] {jfjf64} ty will do later that was prob
[14:05] {jfjf64} fcx
[14:05] {jfjf64}  bounce
[14:08] {RonS} 3i, if you have "quit skype" and turned it off can they still use the machine?
01[14:08] {@Threei}  I don't think so
01[14:08] {@Threei}  but gotta check
[14:08] {jfjf64} na takin to long
[14:09] {jfjf64} dint bouce with mkt
01[14:09] {@Threei}  at least on mine, shutting it down stopped those wierd spikes in CPU activity that got my attention in a first place
[14:09] {jfjf64} .50 hold .40
[14:09] {RonS} cpu use bouncing here betwee 6-16%
[14:10] {jfjf64} how do I check cpu
01[14:10] {@Threei}  right, same was here, 17% accigned to Skyp on regular spikes, every N seconds (don't remember exact number)
01[14:11] {@Threei}  I have System Explorer program running that shows which process uses what
01[14:11] {@Threei}  I guess usual Task Manager can show this as well
[14:11] {jfjf64} k
[14:11] {RonS} i do hold buttons of: ctrl-alt delete...takes to windows task manager and clic "performance"...
[14:13] {jfjf64} 26%
[14:13] {jfjf64} cpu
01[14:13] {@Threei}  if you see those spikes every 20-30 seconds, assigned to Skype, this is it
[14:14] {Jenh} got to go. have a great rest of the day everyone!
[14:14] {dino} cya jenh
01[14:14] {@Threei}  full load doesn't tell you much jf, you have oter programs running
01[14:14] {@Threei}  take care Jen
[14:14] {jfjf64} 35%
01[14:14] {@Threei}  you need breakdown by programs
[14:20] {jfjf64} boy vxx made huge run up
[14:41] {jfjf64} hey
[14:41] {jfjf64} anybody
[14:43] {dino} lake hole
[14:44] {jfjf64} 3i
01[14:45] {@Threei}  ?
[14:45] {RonS} lol
01[14:49] {@Threei}  direction seem to be settled, waiting for bounce to short
01[14:49] {@Threei}  or VXX pullback to buy
01[14:50] {@Threei}  around .70 - .75
01[14:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[14:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[14:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:52] {@Threei}  1:2
01[14:52] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:53] {@Threei}  out
01[14:53] {@Threei}  man, the precision...
[14:53] {jfjf64} nice
06[14:53] * @Threei pats himself on the back, dislocates shoulder and goes back to his corner
01[15:08] {@Threei} Short Setup: IWM  .70 break
01[15:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[15:09] {@Threei}  change to .80 break
01[15:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[15:12] {@Threei}  no go
01[15:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[15:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[15:28] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[15:34] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:34] {@Threei}  1:1 but good luck getting in
01[15:38] {@Threei}  good entry point... too bad it was unobtainable
[15:44] {dino} calling it a day, good morning, side-tracked afternoon. gn all
01[15:44] {@Threei}  take care dino
01[15:44] {@Threei}  wrapping it up too
01[15:45] {@Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow