Thursday, October 23, 2014

Oct 23 2014

Very solid day with wins making it very worth our while. Plenty of plays on both sides and of all sizes.
Close Market Snapshot
Thu, 23 Oct 2014 15:50 PM EST

US Indices:
- Dow Jones +1.4%
- S&P500 +1.4%
- Nasdaq +1.7%

- Indices are up sharply headed into the close, albeit off their midday highs, after a final hour scare of reported "Ebola in NYC". Industrials and Healthcare names are leading the charge, while defensive Consumer Goods and Utilities lag. TSCO, ORLY, CELG, UNP, and CAT are all up over 5%, helped by their strong respective earnings. TMK, CTXS, and LUV are down over 4% in the wake of their quarterly update.

Fixed-Income: Treasuries selloff is even most pronounced relative to its week-long trend, with the yield on the benchmark rising 5bps to its highest level since Oct 14th. 2-10 spread has also widened 3bps as markets look increasingly past last week's seizure ahead to next week's Fed decision.

- US 2-yr: +2bps at 0.39%
- 10-yr: +5bps at 2.28%
- 30-yr: +4bps at 3.04%
- 2-10 spread: +0.3% at 1.89%

- WTI Dec crude oil $82.05; Crude Oil has erased nearly all of its overnight decline on broad-based risk on flows. The rally is somewhat constrained by overnight report that Saudi Arabia raised production in September to 9.70M bpd from 9.60M in August.

- Spot Gold $1,231/oz; Precious metals are down for the 2nd straight day, tracking higher USD responding to higher Treasury yields. $1,226 US session low was a 1-week low.
- Spot Silver $17.20/oz; Early US session low of $17.05 was also a 1-week low.
- Dec Copper $3.04/lb; Copper broke above $3.05 in early trade, a 1-week high.

Key Earnings at the close:

Looking ahead to Asia session:
- New Zealand Trade Balance 17:45ET
- South Korea GDP 19:00ET
- China Property Prices 21:30ET 

Session Time: Thu Oct 23 00:00:00 2014
[09:13] {dino} gm
01[09:14] {@Threei}  dino :)
03[09:14] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[09:17] {RonS} hi guys
01[09:17] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  sheesh
01[09:19] {@Threei}  while PM was laying wreath at the spot where guard was killed yesterday, a man tried to cross the barriers and was arrested on the spot
[09:19] {troub} good morning
01[09:19] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:20] {@Threei}  PM didn't mince words yesterday. No "workplace violence" nonsense
[09:20] {nemo} that's a good slap at the PC US
[09:22] {Jenh} good morning everyone!
01[09:22] {@Threei}  jen :)
[09:22] {nemo} I love the Ferguson stuff down here..Forensic evidence supports the cop story as well as eyewitnesses but they're gonna' burn the city down
[09:23] {cosmo} they must hate themselves for some reason....
[09:24] {nemo} as we say:  humans are emotional beings with the potential for rationality
01[09:25] {@Threei}  very rarely realized potential
[09:25] {dino} nemo, was reading that, the kid tried to get his gun
[09:26] {nemo} yeah, and the story is supported by witnesses...never let facts get in the way...then again all I know is what I read
[09:26] {nemo} As the little Colonel said, "History is merely a fantasy upon which we all agree."
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CYTX +50% (FDA approves resumption of ATHENA trial enrollment)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BRP +21% (BAM proposes to acquire remaining 30% of the company for $23/shr)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -INFN +15% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -JAKK +13% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SCSS +12.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -EGHT +12% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -TSCO +11% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DAN +10.3% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CQB +8% (Cutrale Safra Group again raises offer, now $14.50/shr)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LOGI +7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -NOK +7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -AIRM -22% (Q3 guidance substantially below estimates)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CAB -13% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -YELP -12.5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -IPCM -11% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CTXS -6.3% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DNKN -5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -UA -5% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -CAKE -4.4% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BBD -4.3% (Brazilian poll/election news)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PBR -4% (Brazilian poll/election news)
[09:29] {_petersh} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei}  peter :)
[09:30] {jfjf64} morning all
01[09:30] {@Threei}  jf :)
[09:31] {jfjf64} rcl whacked
01[09:31] {@Threei}  UAL too
[09:32] {ese} gm
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  ese :)
[09:32] {nemo} spy trying yesterday's high
[09:32] {cosmo} CAT came back....
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:33] {jfjf64} needs to settle in
01[09:34] {@Threei}  invalidated right after the cal, let's see if bounces for double top
01[09:35] {@Threei}  doesn't look right
01[09:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .55 break
01[09:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:36] {@Threei}  change to .50 break
01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:36] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:36] {jfjf64} hmm
[09:37] {Jenh} you guys are starting early
01[09:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .25 break
[09:37] {nemo} drinking?
01[09:37] {@Threei}  not earlier than market starts :)
[09:38] {Jenh} ha!
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:39] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:41] {jfjf64} +.19 ty vg
01[09:41] {@Threei}  yw
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CCL  .40 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:44] {@Threei}  moved to 1:1 in one quick smooth sail, just as we like it
01[09:45] {@Threei}  no this 'ak, I might be stopping you out... or I might not" nonsense
[09:45] {Jenh} +.10! ty
01[09:45] {@Threei}  yw :)
01[09:50] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:50] {@Threei}  stop to .44
01[09:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  that was fast
[09:53] {jfjf64} ya think
01[09:53] {@Threei}  I don't
01[09:53] {@Threei}  ever
01[09:53] {@Threei}  I tried once, migraine was horrible
[09:54] {jfjf64} lol
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) SEPT LEADING INDEX: 0.8% V 0.7%E
[10:00] {RonS} jakk l .28
[10:02] {RonS} out jakk flat
01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .25 break
01[10:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[10:04] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:06] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:3
[10:13] {nemo} lotsa green not much index price improvement
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:4
01[10:14] {@Threei}  out
[10:17] {ese} ok...lookin for advice here on a price target......want to sense of how far rdnt might go here...i'm thinkin 10.00....can anyone else give me an estimate based on it's daily
[10:18] {ese} still have a 1/2 lot to go with it and am up $1.10 approx so far
[10:18] {jfjf64} vg ty iwm,ccl
01[10:18] {@Threei}  yw
[10:18] {jfjf64} rcl looks  lower
01[10:18] {@Threei}  ese, just trail your stop and let it trade... targets are very fickle thing
[10:18] {Jenh} congrats!
01[10:18] {@Threei}  especially with rodents
[10:19] {ese} ok...don't do many trades like this anymore.....what kind of trailing stop would you recoment vad
[10:19] {ese} recommend
[10:19] {RonS} measure move from the $8 break and pullback then re-capture shows (.76 prox
[10:19] {RonS} 9.76
01[10:20] {@Threei}  around 7.50 right now, with just under 8 next trail, after it makes new high or ends the day around here
[10:20] {ese} cool tks ron
01[10:20] {@Threei}  watch where it bottoms out if it pullsa back, then trail to under that low
01[10:21] {@Threei}  if it spikes vertically, start tightening the stop
[10:27] {ese} L some more mack avg .71
[10:28] {jfjf64} ual lookin for pullbk
[10:37] {ese} when they say "the grass looks greener on the other side".....i'd have to respectfully disagree at this point ....the sea of profit green on trading screen right now is rather nice to look at
01[10:37] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[10:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:38] {ese} no no no !!!don't encourage that..... that will not make my sea of green look very nice......Ive always hated a red color
[10:39] {nemo} strange for a communist
[10:39] {ese} lol
[10:39] {nemo} could make an argument for aapl .80 break
01[10:40] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:48] {jfjf64} 80.00 fb
[10:48] {Jenh} darn vxx
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ?
01[10:50] {@Threei}  it hit 1:1, you partial and trail to breakeven
[10:50] {Jenh} fb? or me?
01[10:50] {@Threei}  VXX
[10:50] {Jenh} oh didn't get that
01[10:50] {@Threei}  whatever happens, you are profitable
[10:50] {Jenh} got stopped out
[10:50] {Jenh} ah didn't do that
[10:50] {Jenh} still learning
[10:51] {Jenh} small tuition fee for this trade
01[10:51] {@Threei}  this is standard operating procedure
01[10:51] {@Threei}  remember instructions on trading room page?
[10:51] {Jenh} so once it hits 1:1 you take half out?
[10:51] {nemo} he does
[10:51] {Jenh} sorry no. there are instructions?
01[10:51] {@Threei}  please read:
01[10:52] {@Threei}  that's what all these 1:1, 1:2 etc are for
[10:52] {Jenh} thanks
01[10:52] {@Threei}  they instruct you how to manage the trade
[10:52] {Jenh} wow. didn't get that
[10:52] {nemo} and not to play with ese
[10:52] {Jenh} i thought they were just scores of how well the trade is doing
[10:52] {Jenh} ok thanks. little embarrassed now
[10:52] {Jenh} will read the instructions immediately
[10:53] {jfjf64} jen ya drinkin
[10:53] {nemo} well, they're guidelines
[10:53] {nemo}'re projecting
[10:53] {jfjf64} lol
[10:53] {Jenh} true. still better than my guideline :)
[10:53] {jfjf64} define who you r
[10:54] {Jenh} who i am?
[10:54] {Jenh} a newbie obviously :)
[10:54] {nemo} cogito ergo sum
01[10:57] {@Threei}  World Health Organization (WHO) issues update on Ebola outbreak; now somewhat comfortable that the virus is not being transmitted to the neighboring countries to Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia
01[10:57] {@Threei}  jen, I'd recommend to look closely at 111 Trades
01[10:57] {@Threei}  this is a single course that will clear up a lot of things for you
[10:58] {Jenh} ok will look into that too. thanks
[11:02] {nemo} VXX
[11:03] {nemo} .15 break
[11:03] {nemo} looks possible
[11:05] {ese} ok....nemo ....I just saw that comment to jenh about not playing with ese.....listen here Buddy!!!!!!!!!  I represent that remark ehhhh
[11:06] {nemo} math teachers
[11:06] {nemo} mercurial drummmer...nice musicians let you hang out with them, huh?
[11:07] {ese} they might......why....what's it to ya ehhhhhhh?
[11:07] {ese} your thing
[11:07] {nemo} need to rebalance your meds dude
01[11:08] {@Threei}  nah, just add vodka
[11:08] {ese} lol
[11:08] {ese} your the one sellin em to me.........sheesh
[11:10] {ese} hey jenh........just because i like to be inclusive with everyone and treat everyone fairly.......i get labeled a!  can't win for tryin here
01[11:11] {@Threei}  ignore them ese. I for one enjoyed very much that crop of communist apples from your backyard
[11:11] {nemo} fair is a subjective term
[11:11] {Jenh} aww that's sad ese
[11:11] {nemo} some are more equal than others
[11:11] {Jenh} don't let them change ya
[11:11] {ese} ouch!!!!! ouch!!!!!!.......cut to the heart.......
[11:11] {nemo} VXX setting up inverted head and shoulders
[11:12] {nemo} better than kicking you in the butt...that would cause brain damage
[11:12] {nemo} nope
[11:12] {ese} ho ho ho.......just because your playing with an unloaded gun........
[11:13] {RonS} perseveration strikes
[11:13] {nemo} they're never unloaded
01[11:14] {@Threei}  take a look guys:
01[11:14] {@Threei}
01[11:14] {@Threei}  can you believe this is the guy who shot the attacker yesterday?
01[11:15] {@Threei}  family lives here in Victoria
[11:17] {ese} Well....ladies(nemo) and gents gotta go....things to do...preping for a show this weekend " The Masquerade Ball" here in Victoria    
[11:17] {ese} Vad maybe see you there.....your already dressed up for it
01[11:17] {@Threei}  lol
[11:17] {ese} ba dap bap!
01[11:17] {@Threei}  not a first time I am told to take off the gas mask...
[11:18] {ese} rotflol
01[11:18] {@Threei}  followed by embarassed "oh sorry, that's your actual face"
01[11:18] {@Threei}  only in ese case, embarassment is fake
[11:18] {ese} you said it not me........and bring your co hort in crime......nemo.....i gotta hunch he's dressed for it as well
[11:19] {ese} c ya
01[11:19] {@Threei}  take care ese
[11:20] {Jenh} 3i just got the 111 course. is there any thing else you would recommend for me
[11:20] {Jenh} bye ese!
01[11:21] {@Threei}  this one will keep you busy for a while
[11:21] {Jenh} oh dear. ok. will start tonight.
01[11:21] {@Threei}  let's go step by step
[11:21] {Jenh} thank you
01[11:21] {@Threei}  no need to accumulate a mountain of material at once :)
01[11:22] {@Threei}  it's difficult for me to rank my books and courses, they are all like kids
[11:22] {Jenh} that's definitely good news.
01[11:22] {@Threei}  but this one is kind of shortcut
[11:22] {Jenh} oh ok. thanks.
01[11:23] {@Threei}  when you need to get up to speed in a hurry, this is the one
[11:23] {Jenh} i will treat this kid kindly and learn as much as i can :)
[11:23] {Jenh} awesome!
01[11:23] {@Threei}  if and when you can identify difficulties you have with various aspects, some of other might come handy,
01[11:24] {@Threei}  although Techniques of tape Reading is always good for putting many things together
01[11:24] {@Threei}  and cheap
[11:24] {Jenh} oh ok.
[11:24] {Jenh} will get that next
[11:27] {nemo} great for insomnia
01[11:28] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .10 break
06[11:28] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large book of Techniques of Tape Reading
01[11:28] {@Threei}  If holds  33
06[11:28] * nemo slaps Vad around with a large copy of A Taoist Trader
01[11:29] {@Threei}  crap... he has the same script, lol
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:29] {@Threei}  sorry
01[11:29] {@Threei}  practicing for the next 10 cents :)
01[11:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:38] {@Threei}  1:3
[11:39] {jfjf64} spot on jf thanks nemo and vg
[11:39] {jfjf64} vg more though
01[11:39] {@Threei}  sorry, what des nemo get credits for??
[11:39] {nemo} moral support
01[11:39] {@Threei}  lol
[11:40] {Jenh} still getting used to new guideline but made up loss!
[11:40] {Jenh} thanks 3i!
01[11:40] {@Threei}  yw :)
01[11:40] {@Threei}  this is something to which I, in wilder years of my youth,I used to answer: There is nothing moral in my support
[11:41] {nemo} sure there is, just depends on your definition of morality
[12:04] {dino} .
[12:07] {dino}  miss much?
01[12:08] {@Threei}  not much but decent day
[12:14] {dino} r.e. distractions
01[12:16] {@Threei}  that's how one hobo explained to me once his decision to live on the street
[12:16] {dino} lol. foreclosures springing up like crazy here, the last two months. looked at two more this morning
01[12:19] {@Threei}  sigh... no one but dino values my sense of humor... and I thought it was pretty funny
06[12:19] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a very funny remark
[12:19] {dino} after, what 6+years, it starts to grow on you
01[12:19] {@Threei}  hehe
01[12:20] {@Threei}  sorry... can't be a good thing, I know
[12:30] {nemo} mmmhhh, might be the top here
01[13:05] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .90 break
01[13:05] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[13:07] {@Threei}  1:1
[13:07] {nemo} what I miss, power outage
01[13:07] {@Threei}  nothing, just got IWM at .90
01[13:07] {@Threei}  other than that, quiet
[13:10] {nemo} I'd go short
01[13:17] {@Threei}  let us get 1:2 first
[13:18] {jfjf64} yes pls
[13:18] {nemo} not up to me
01[13:30] {@Threei}  1:2
[13:31] {jfjf64} ty vg not nemo
[13:31] {jfjf64} lol
01[13:31] {@Threei}  lol
01[13:32] {@Threei}  1:3
[13:32] {jfjf64} good day on gap up
01[13:32] {@Threei}  good read 3i
01[13:32] {@Threei}  why thank you 3i
[13:32] {nemo} oh jeez, he hurt his shoulder again
01[13:32] {@Threei}  ugh... yeah, dislocated it in severe self-backpatting
[13:33] {nemo} don't tell them how you broke your thumb
01[13:33] {@Threei}  can I tell how I determined what toe is?
[13:33] {nemo} If you must
01[13:33] {@Threei}  device for locating the furniture in extreme low light condition
[13:34] {nemo} Oh, that's how I found a 35 lb. dumbell once
[13:34] {Jenh} lol
[14:00] {nemo} mmmm... spy sneaking up to resistance again
[14:07] {nathan} g a all
[14:08] {dino} nat
[14:08] {nathan} whats up dino!
01[14:13] {@Threei}  hey nathan
01[14:16] {@Threei}  wow IWM
01[14:16] {@Threei}  should have kept some eh?
[14:16] {dino} sidetrack day nathan
[14:16] {jfjf64} wish
01[14:16] {@Threei}  solid day here
[14:16] {jfjf64} all win
[14:17] {jfjf64} did I thank you for iwm play
01[14:17] {@Threei}  no
01[14:17] {@Threei}  no one did
01[14:17] {@Threei}  sniff sniff
01[14:18] {@Threei}  thankless job of mine
[14:18] {jfjf64} yes I did 13.32 time
01[14:18] {@Threei}  unsang hero of intraday markets
[14:18] {jfjf64} take a bow
01[14:19] {@Threei}  13:32 doesn't count, my memory goes back 21 seconds
[14:19] {jfjf64} vxx takin
01[14:19] {@Threei}  moth and fish fight for the right to have less memory span than I do
[14:19] {jfjf64} same here
01[14:19] {@Threei}  sorry, who are you?
[14:20] {jfjf64} jf lauugfin as eatin salad
[14:20] {jfjf64} blue cheese on desk
[14:40] {jfjf64} twtr getting smashed
[14:51] {jfjf64} any body there
01[14:51] {@Threei}  nope
[14:51] {jfjf64} k
01[14:52] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[14:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[14:54] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:54] {jfjf64} wow
[14:54] {nathan} wow
01[14:54] {@Threei}  (US) Reportedly a doctor is being placed in isolation at Bellevue Hospital in New York City with Ebola-like symptoms; doctor recently returned from Africa, treated Ebola patients - New York Post "A doctor who returned to New York City from Africa 10 days ago was rushed in an ambulance with a police escort from his Harlem home to Bellevue Hospital. While he was in Africa, the doctor had been treating Ebola patients in Guinea."
[14:55] {jfjf64} what a mess
[14:58] {jfjf64} we going down we going timber
[14:58] {jfjf64} literally
[14:59] {RonS} lol... did someone yell Ebola in a crowded trade?
01[14:59] {@Threei}  pretty much, lol
[14:59] {jfjf64} baboom
[14:59] {jfjf64} that was classic
[14:59] {Jenh} got another .10! thanks 3i!
01[15:00] {@Threei}  :)
[15:00] {Jenh} jumped out early i know but still so happy!
01[15:00] {@Threei}  Jen is breaking the rules... making money while learning. I didn't know it was legal
[15:00] {Jenh} :)
[15:02] {jfjf64} care full last hour
[15:02] {jfjf64} lock it up here
[15:02] {jfjf64} ty vg
01[15:02] {@Threei}  yw
[15:03] {dino} gj jen, jf
[15:05] {Jenh} thanks dino!
[15:08] {RonS} gold flying, who knew it was a vaccine?
01[15:09] {@Threei}  lol
01[15:09] {@Threei}  take a look at GLD daily for 365 days
01[15:10] {@Threei}  if this is not a classic preparation for major breakdown...
[15:12] {cosmo} 114.50 test
01[15:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .90 break
01[15:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[15:22] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[15:24] {@Threei}  ugh
01[15:24] {@Threei}  got away
01[15:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .34 break
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[15:26] {@Threei}  change to ,90
01[15:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[15:27] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:37] {nemo} Manhattan: 462 1st Ave A Doctor in his 30's who returned from West Africa is being tested for the Ebola virus at Bellevue Hospital.
[15:37] {nemo} he came from there
[15:38] {jfjf64} a mess
01[15:39] {@Threei}  nemo needs to take me off ignore
[15:39] {nemo} I saw your ebola thing
[15:44] {RonS} Bombshell: Muslim Shooter Was Son of Canada's Deputy Immigration Chief
[15:44] {nemo} too fucking funny
[15:44] {dino} lol
[15:44] {nemo} You can't make that shit up
[15:45] {jfjf64} whoops
[15:45] {Jenh} ww scarey
[15:45] {Jenh} *wow
01[15:47] {@Threei}  The mother of gunman Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, Susan Bibeau, lives in the Canadian city of Montreal and works for the Canadian Immigrant and Refugee Board as a deputy chairperson of the Immigration Division.
01[15:47] {@Threei}  Despite his mother's job, the Canadian national of Libyan descent had been designated as a high-risk traveller and had his passport confiscated because of his jihadist leanings following his conversion to Islam.
01[15:49] {@Threei}  Authorities are still searching for her
01[15:49] {@Threei}  wow
[15:50] {jfjf64} nemo said it best
01[15:51] {@Threei}  he has this way with language
[15:51] {nemo} [15:44] {nemo} too fucking funny
[15:51] {nemo} [15:44] {nemo} You can't make that shit up
01[15:51] {@Threei}  you should hear him when he stubs his toe in the dark
01[15:51] {@Threei}  some russians would envy his vocabulary
[15:51] {nemo} I cry like a little baby
[15:51] {nemo} I had a very good teacher
01[15:51] {@Threei}  Ok guys, thank you all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  have a great evbening
01[15:52] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:52] {jfjf64} we just getting started
[15:53] {cosmo} yeah, no over-nighters?
[15:53] {Jenh} good night everyone!
[15:53] {jfjf64} gn all
[15:58] {dino} gn