Friday, May 29, 2015

May 29 2015

Very good day with one winning trade after another, most of them are juicy 1:3 and 1:2. Merely one stop that hasn't even make a dent. Not too shabby for a boring Friday trading day.

Session Time: Fri May 29 00:00:00 2015

[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:18] {Branm} gm
01[09:19] {@Threei}  branm :)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -TBIO +45% (launched EGFR CLIA test ahead of ASCO meeting)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -HRTX +32% (announced positive results from Phase 3 MAGIC study of SUSTOL)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -PBMD +14% (announces new IP for its lead IMP321 development program)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -GME +7.5% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ALTR +5.7% (said to be close to a deal to acquire Altera for $15B)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -BOOT +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -ULTA +2.3% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -PSUN -11% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -VEEV -7% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -FRO -4% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -GCO -4% (earnings)
01[09:30] {@Threei}  -SPLK -2.3% (earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  80 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:31] {@Threei}  two-sided
01[09:33] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:34] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:2
[09:35] {dino} tbio s .34
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:35] {@Threei}  out
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .20 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) MAY CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 46.2 V 53.0E
01[09:46] {@Threei}  wow, subindices look horrible
01[09:46] {@Threei}  Sub-indices (vs prior month revisions):- Prices Paid: 51.2 v 43.1 prior- New Orders: 47.5 v 55.1prior- Employment: 48.0 v 54.0 prior- Inventories: 53.3 v 54.2 prior- Supplier Deliveries: 49.5 v 51.9 prior - Production: 45.8 v 52.7 prior - Order backlogs: 47.3 v 48.5 prior
01[09:46] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: May Final University of Michigan Confidence Index due out at 10:00ET (14:00GMT)- Consensus expectations: 53.0e v 52.3 prior
01[09:48] {@Threei}  Invalidated  AIG
[09:49] {dino} hrtx sm s .19
01[09:49] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .70 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:54] {dino} cov hrtx .76,+.43
[09:56] {dino} tso spike
[09:56] {dino} lly spike
[10:01] {dino} lly sm s .12
[10:02] {nemo} why is it up?
01[10:02] {@Threei}  LLY Seeing call activity3600 Jun 80 calls trading at $0.38
[10:03] {dino} partnership w/?
[10:07] {dino} lly stop .45 -.33
[10:13] {dino} lly sm s .35
[10:17] {dino} cov lly .00 +.35
[10:18] {dino} cov tbio .12, +.22
01[10:19] {@Threei}  half out TTR
01[10:20] {@Threei}  takes incredibly long time
[10:22] {Branm} nice Fb trade i was so excited then i realizized i was on my demo account
[10:22] {dino} lol
[10:24] {dino} psix spike, hooker
01[10:24] {@Threei}  :)
[10:28] {dino} hrtx new hod
[10:29] {dino} partial, s psix .26
[10:32] {dino} hrtx sm s break .00
[10:33] {dino} giddy-up
[10:36] {nemo} dino, what stock was I watching yesterday that had that gap below?
[10:37] {dino} hrtx stop .35 -.36
[10:37] {dino} expe
[10:37] {nemo} ty
[10:37] {dino} np
[10:38] {nemo} wished I asked u two minutes agao perfect setup below ..70
01[10:51] {@Threei}  VXX... too bad I disregared setup at .05
[10:57] {dino} reshort hrtx .25
[10:59] {dino} cov hrtx .95, +.30
[11:04] {dino} hrtx trades in dimes
01[11:15] {@Threei} Short Setup: MCD  .25 break
01[11:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
[11:22] {Branm} come on MCD move
[11:24] {dino} branm, we usually say "die"
[11:24] {Branm} Die Die lol
06[11:24] * @Threei hits MCD over the head with 2x4
01[11:24] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:24] {@Threei}  violence works
[11:25] {dino} nice branm, nice
[11:27] {Branm} I am out nice call
[11:27] {dino} gj
[11:28] {dbdb} anyone know where to get a listof Russell 2000 adds and deletes?
[11:28] {dino} diiieeee psix diiieeee
[11:29] {dino} google it db
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:2
[11:29] {dino} gj
01[11:30] {@Threei}  see Branm? violence and good word work much better than a good word alone {G}
01[11:31] {@Threei}  dbdb, see private message
01[11:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[11:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:38] {dino} guys will luv me today on the golf course. beef and bean burritos
01[11:38] {@Threei}  you spoil them
[11:39] {dino} ya think, lol
[11:39] {nemo} dino....look at expe now
[11:39] {dino} like it, gap was 106 right?
01[11:39] {@Threei}  you sure you don't play golf with 6 ft 4D blond females?
[11:40] {nemo} yeah, we talked about day ahead and forgot
01[11:40] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:40] {dino} 105.80s looks like
[11:40] {nemo} toat's gap close
[11:40] {dbdb} threei where is the pm?
01[11:41] {@Threei}  see in the upper bar, next to #discussions
01[11:41] {@Threei}  there will be a tab with my nick
01[11:41] {@Threei}  or just doubleclick on my nick to have a window pop-up
01[11:42] {@Threei}  1:2  IWM
01[11:43] {@Threei}  for a boring Friday, nicely profitable day
[11:43] {dino} hrtx sm s .50 stop hod
01[11:43] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:44] {@Threei}  over and out
[11:44] {dino} gj
01[11:44] {@Threei}  ty
01[11:46] {@Threei}  1:4, for more patient types
01[11:48] {@Threei}  1:5, for superpatient
01[11:49] {@Threei}  1:6, for those who fainted and just now came out of it to count their profits
01[11:50] {@Threei}  As expected, Q1 US GDP turned negative in the second reading, dropping to -0.7% from the +0.2% advance report. The contraction was slight less than expected. Personal consumption was revised slightly lower. The decrease primarily reflected negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending
01[11:50] {@Threei}  WTI crude move back up toward $60 after midweek softness as OPEC started talking ahead of its meeting in Vienna next week. The Russians will be meeting with OPEC figures ahead of the conference, however today Russia Energy Minister Novak confirmed that Russia and OPEC would not agree to specific crude production levels at the confab.
01[12:14] {@Threei}  Bran, what platform you run demo with?
01[12:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[12:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[12:26] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:29] {@Threei}  nemo, you here?
01[12:31] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:55] {nemo} hello
[12:58] {dino} added hrtx puts
01[12:58] {@Threei}  just wanted to ask you whether I deserve a medal today
[12:58] {nemo} why?
01[12:58] {@Threei}  sigh... never mind
[12:59] {nemo} VXX should be late day play
[13:10] {dino} hum spike
[13:10] {dino} ci spike
[13:14] {dino} ci smr s .86
[13:15] {dino} cov 138.49, +1.37
[13:17] {dino} hum again
[13:19] {dino} hum up for sale
[13:19] {dino} antm spike
[13:33] {nemo} was gonna call IWM short, thought it was a bit early
[13:34] {nemo} VXX should be getting ready but might be a bit early
[13:35] {dino} cnc spike
[13:43] {drewj} Vad is it true that when price moves are more orderly that more people will participate because it's more obvious what's going on?
01[13:44] {@Threei}  not at all, but the opposite is true
[13:44] {drewj} how so?
01[13:44] {@Threei}  when more people take part, price moves in a more readable manner
[13:44] {dino} calling it a week, take care all
01[13:44] {@Threei}  think of it this way:
01[13:44] {@Threei}  take care dino, see you monday
01[13:45] {@Threei}  people will participate for all sorts of reason, and many of those reasons have zero to do with common sense, correct market reading or anything remotely sane
01[13:46] {@Threei}  naighbor shared a hot tip... dentist said ABCD news is huge... taxi driver said his father-in-law knows someone at XYZ
01[13:46] {@Threei}  many of them never saw a chart
01[13:46] {@Threei}  let alone understand how to read it
01[13:47] {@Threei}  but when there are enough of them, they form what you want:
01[13:47] {@Threei}  a crowd
01[13:47] {@Threei}  a crowd acts in a readable and predictable manner
01[13:47] {@Threei}  and serves as a feeding ground for smart money
01[13:47] {@Threei}  what you get is both sides of the market then
01[13:48] {@Threei}  and our entire way of reading is based on just that: eternal smart money vs crowd battle
01[13:48] {@Threei}  makes sense?
[13:48] {drewj} Still processing...
01[13:48] {@Threei}  O'll wait :)
01[13:48] {@Threei}  I
[13:49] {drewj} So what causes the orderly price movement then?
01[13:50] {@Threei}  broad participation
[13:51] {drewj} So I'm really after braod participation then?
01[13:51] {@Threei}  no, you are after readable movement
01[13:51] {@Threei}  why do you need a secondary sign if you have a primary
[13:52] {drewj} I guess I'm trying to distiguish between the two
01[13:53] {@Threei}  you can't, one is a cause, another is an oucome
[13:53] {drewj} So cause is broad participation and outcome is orderly movement?
01[13:53] {@Threei}  right
[13:54] {drewj} ty
[14:00] {drewj} I guess I thought that organized movement was caused by traders who understand what's going on
01[14:01] {@Threei}  but they need the other side
01[14:01] {@Threei}  if all you have are traders that understand, who they are going to make money of?
[14:08] {drewj} I know the answer to that but I'm still working on the relationship between organized movement and particpation.
01[14:09] {@Threei}  I am not sure what need you see in digging into that
01[14:10] {@Threei}  it's a kind of common sense: when we have good volume, we have much more readable movements
01[14:10] {@Threei}  good volume means broader participation
[14:13] {drewj} ok...
[14:35] {drewj} Vad is it more accurate then to say that increased volume at particular price levels is more easy to read?
[14:35] {nemo} no, it's the volume pattern at various levels
[14:35] {drewj} how so?
[14:36] {nemo} if you look at the daily volume levels on the SPY of the last few months,  you will notice the down days are showing more volume than the up days
01[14:36] {@Threei}  no, that's a convoluted way to put it and is not accurate
[14:36] {drewj} ?
01[14:36] {@Threei}  volume changes as pricer changes, and they together form a pattern
[14:36] {nemo} in a true bull market volume will be greater on up days than down days
01[14:36] {@Threei}  as nemore says
01[14:36] {@Threei}  nemo
[14:36] {nemo} rythms of the market
01[14:37] {@Threei}  how you interpret those changes is up for discussion,
[14:37] {nemo} currently we're seeing what is more indicative of distribution
[14:37] {nemo} new highs are grinds, drops are high volume without any effort
01[14:37] {@Threei}  but to say that volume at $20 is more readable than at 20.15 is a very weird way to look at it
[14:42] {nemo} mon could drop a long way if the trap door lets go
[14:45] {drewj} ok one more try here...
[14:46] {nemo} don't jump
[14:46] {drewj} so does good volume reduce the randomness of price movement?
[14:46] {nemo} no...context does
[14:46] {drewj} damn
[14:46] {drewj} :)
[14:46] {nemo} if you're hunting in a shitty environment, you're fucked
[14:47] {drewj} I'm going to put that on my monitor...
[14:47] {drewj} that's what I've been trying to ask...
[14:47] {nemo} trading is's the weather, how's the wind, where's the food, where are the bedding areas...what was the weather, what is the weather going to be soon
[14:48] {drewj} why does it work sometime and not others...because I'm hunting in a shitty environment sometimes and other times the environment is good
01[14:48] {@Threei}  {drewj} so does good volume reduce the randomness of price movement? {--- as one of components of that, yes, is what nemo is trying to say
[14:48] {drewj} I need to know the difference between the environments...
[14:49] {drewj} Thanks nemo
01[14:49] {@Threei}  you sound like you are trying to figure out some absolutes
[14:49] {nemo} but you have to have a feel for other dynamics...right now Greece is a trip wire, you're going into the weekend...If your stock is down alot, more than likely the shorts are gonna get flat, if the stock is up alot, the longs are gonna get flat....people are ging to buy protection...remember when I said earlier, VXX is probably a good long play this afternoon....look
01[14:49] {@Threei}  kind of: "of you understand this and that, I'll be able to get rid of losing trades"
01[14:50] {@Threei}  ummm... "of you" = if I
[14:51] {drewj} Nemo's right though...that's what I was trying to ask
01[14:51] {@Threei}  (how many errors can one make i n two words, longest of which is two letters)
[14:51] {nemo} Minus the bullets, this is warfare
01[14:59] {@Threei}  watching IWM for pullback under 124
01[14:59] {@Threei}  and buy on recross
01[15:12] {@Threei}  got away
01[15:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[15:17] {@Threei}  If holds  124
01[15:27] {@Threei}  1:1
[15:30] {drewj} Have a good weekend guys...thanks nemo
01[15:39] {@Threei}  OK guys, great day to finish the week
01[15:39] {@Threei}  have a good weekend, see you Monday