TradeTheNews.com Weekly
Market Update: Markets Go Quietly Into Holiday Weekend
Fri, 23 Dec 2016 16:02 PM EST
US indices largely marked time heading into the final trading sessions of 2016.
Volumes were commensurate with the seasonal slowdown associated with holiday
trading schedules, running significantly below their 3-month averages. The hope
that has manifested itself as the 'Trump bump' appears to be fading as the
reality sets in that his administration is only week's away from taking the
reins. Concerns about a potential trade war with China and Trump's tweet about
expanding the nuclear arsenal raised questions about how aggressive the new
government will be in global affairs, nevertheless the VIX volatility index
moved below the July low in a continued sign of investor complacency. Stocks
remain just below the recent all-time highs while the Dollar index seems to
have stalled out around 1.03. In general, currencies, fixed income, and
commodities remain confined within their recent ranges with the US 10-year yield
consolidating in the mid 2.5% range. Central Banks including the BOJ and
Riksbank kept policy on course at their scheduled meetings and it appears the
ECB is likely to wait until after Germany's October election before making any
significant policy moves. FedEx and Nike headlined the late December earnings
reports and neither generated much in the way of excitement, but Micron shares
surged and helped put a bid under other names in the semiconductor space after
beating Q1 expectations forecasting Q2 results well above the analyst's
consensus. For the week the DJIA rose 0.5%, the S&P500 gained 0.2%, and the
Nasdaq added 0.5%.
SUN 12/18
*(AU) AUSTRALIA MID-YEAR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK (MYEFO): Maintains FY20/21
target for return to surplus; Cuts FY16/17 & FY17/18 GDP Outlook
*(CN) CHINA NOV PROPERTY PRICES M/M: RISE IN 55 OUT OF 70 CITIES VS 62 PRIOR;
Y/Y: RISE IN 65 OUT OF 70 CITIES V 65 PRIOR
MON 12/19
*(DE) GERMANY DEC IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 111.0 V 110.6E (highest since Feb
2014); CURRENT ASSESSMENT: 116.6 V 115.9E
DB: Reportedly nearing DOJ settlement on RMBS case; agreement could come as
early as Weds; set to pay less than $14B settlement - press
*(US) DEC PRELIMINARY MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 53.4 V 55.2E (lowest since Sept)
(TR) Russia Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov reportedly has been shot in
Ankara, with his condition unknown - press
(DE) Several dead, at least 50 reportedly injured after truck drives into
Christmas market in Berlin, Germany; local police spokesman points to terrorism
as motive - press
*(JP) BOJ LEAVES INTEREST RATE ON EXCESS RESERVES (IOER) UNCHANGED AT -0.10%;
AS EXPECTED; Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around ~0%
TUES 12/20
*(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) LEAVES BENCHMARK REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT
8.00%; AS EXPECTED
NKE: Reports Q2 $0.50 v $0.43e, R$8.18B v $8.08Be
FDX: Reports Q2 $2.80 v $2.91e, R$14.9B v $14.9Be
WED 12/21
*(SE) SWEDEN CENTRAL BANK (RIKSBANK) LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT -0.50%; AS
EXPECTED; EXTENDS QE BOND BUYING PROGRAM BY 6 MONTHS IN AMOUNT OF SEK30B
*(US) NOV EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.61M V 5.50ME (highest since Feb 2007)
MU: Reports Q1 $0.32 v $0.28e, R$3.97B v $3.78Be
(US) President-elect Trump and transition team said to be considering a 5%
tariff on foreign imports - financial press
THRS 12/22
*(US) Q3 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 3.5% V 3.3%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.0% V
2.8%E
*(US) NOV PCE CORE M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E
(US) US President Elect Trump tweets U.S. must greatly expand nuclear
capabilities until world comes to senses regarding nukes
DBK.DE: Reaches settlement in principal with DoJ on RMBS; $3.1B penalty and
$4.1B in consumer relief in US; Sees Q4 pretax charge of ~$1.17B
FRI 12/23
CSGN.CH: Reaches settlement in principle with US DOJ on RMBS; Will pay $5.3B in
Mortgage accord
*(DE) GERMANY JAN GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 9.9 V 9.9E (3rd straight reading
below the 10 level)
*(UK) Q3 FINAL GDP (3RD READING) Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.3%E
