TradeTheNews.com Weekly
Market Update: Tax Plan Euphoria Blunted by Russia Probe Developments
Fri, 01 Dec 2017 16:13 PM EST
Stock indices moved further into uncharted territory this week on the belief
tax cuts are coming from Washington DC. A mid-week rotation out of tech raised
some eyebrows when high beta growth stocks fell sharply for a session. The Dow,
S&P and Russell all charged ahead largely unabated, except for bouts of
selling into Friday. A delayed Senate vote Thursday caused mild consternation
heading into the session. Then on Friday, a report that former NSA Michael
Flynn was prepared to testify against President Trump as part of plea deal
caused flurry of risk off trade midway through the session. By the end of the
day, markets recovered much of those losses, and for the week the DJIA gained
2.9%, the S&P500 added 1.5%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%.
Oil prices drifted lower into Thursday’s OPEC meeting. As expected, Ministers
and non OPEC producers ultimately agreed on a 9-month extension through 2018
and to start capping Nigeria and Libya production beginning in January. WTI
crude finished the week about $1 off the recent two year highs while weekly
data showed rig counts have ticked higher. Treasury markets were little changed
on the week. Yields moved higher early on in the week, spurred by robust global
economic data along with the belief that fiscal stimulus and forward movement
in the Brexit negotiations could force Central banks to raise rates faster than
the market currently anticipates. The Dollar remained on soft footing as Cable
pressed out to two month highs. The Dollar index drifted back towards 93.
M&A activity dominated this week’s corporate news. Network security firm
Barracuda agreed to be taken private by PE firm Thoma Bravo for $1.6 billion in
cash. Publisher Time Inc reached a long-speculated deal to be acquired by
Meredith Corp for $2.8B, which aims to combine the reach of its local TV
business with the content available from Time’s media creators. Buffalo Wild
Wings was acquired for $157/share in cash by Arby’s owner Roark Capital, which
intends to make the sports bar chain a privately held unit of Arby's operated
as an independent brand.
SUN 11/26
(US) According to Adobe Analytics, Black Friday and Thanksgiving online sales
totaled $7.9B (record), +17.9% y/y – financial press
(US) According to ShopperTrak, shopper visits to brick-and-mortar retail stores
on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday -1.6% y/y (combined)330.HK Landlord for
test store may lower rent by 30% - HK Press
TIME Meredith confirms to acquire Time for $18.50/share cash for $2.8B
MON 11/27
(US) OCT NEW HOME SALES: 685K V 625KE
CUDA Agrees to be acquired by Thoma Bravo for $27.55/sh in cash for total of
$1.6B
(US) Sen Johnson (R-WI): will vote against tax bill in Budget Committee on Tues
unless my issues are resolved
(US) Adobe: Confirms data shows Cyber Monday is largest online sales day in
history with $6.59B in sales, +16.8% y/y as of 10:00 pm ET
TUES 11/28
*(DE) GERMANY DEC GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.7 V 10.7E
(US) NOV RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 30 V 14E; Volume of new orders 35 v
17 prior
(US) NOV CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 129.5 V 124.0E
(US) Senate Budget Committee advances the tax bill
WEDS 11/29
(FR) FRANCE Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.2%
(DE) GERMANY NOV CPI SAXONY M/M: 0.3% V 0.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.8% PRIOR
(EU) EURO ZONE NOV BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.49 V 1.51E; CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE (FINAL): 0.1 V 0.1E
TIF Reports Q3 $0.80 v $0.76e, Rev $976M v $960Me
(DE) GERMANY NOV PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E
(US) Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP PRICE INDEX: 2.1% V 2.2%E; CORE PCE Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.3%E
(US) Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 3.3% V 3.2%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION:
2.3% V 2.5%E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week
ending Nov 26th: 463.6K carloads and intermodal units, +2.4% y/y
(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) RAISES 7-DAY REPO RATE BY 25BPS TO 1.50%, AS EXPECTED
(CH) CHINA NOV OFFICIAL GOVT MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.8 V 51.4E, NON-MANUFACTURING
PMI: 54.8 V 54.3 PRIOR
THURS 11/30
CSGN.CH Affirms FY18 targets; announces 2019-2020 objectives; aims to pay 50%
of net in buybacks, dividends
(FR) FRANCE NOV PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 1.2%E
(DE) GERMANY NOV UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -18K V -10KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.6% V
5.6%E
(US) OCT PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.5%E
(US) OCT PCE CORE M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.4%E
(US) OCT PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.3% V 0.3%E
(US) Nevada reports Oct casino gaming Rev $988.7M, +0.3% y/y; Las Vegas strip
rev $528.7M, -6.0% y/y
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q4 GDP estimate to 2.7% from 3.4% on 11/22
(CN) CHINA NOV CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 50.8 V 50.9E (5-month low)
(HK) Macau Nov Casino Rev MOP23.0B +22.6% y/y v +19%e
FRIDAY 12/1
(BR) BRAZIL Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.3%E (3rd straight quarter of growth); Y/Y:
1.4% V 1.3%E
(DE) GERMANY NOV FINAL MANUFACTURING PMI: 62.5 V 62.5E (confirms its 36th month
of expansion and highest since Feb 2011)
(CA) CANADA NOV NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +79.5K V +10.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
5.9% V 6.2%E
(US) NOV ISM MANUFACTURING: 58.2 V 58.3E; PRICES PAID: 65.5 V 67.0E
(US) MICHAEL FLYNN SAID TO BE WILLING TO TESTIFY AGAINST PRESIDENT TRUMP - ABC
news
(US) Senator Collins (R-ME): deal was reached to include property tax deduction
amendment in tax bill
(US) Sen Corker (R-TN): there are probably enough votes to pass the Senate tax
bill - press
(US) NBC sources say that Jared Kusher was the "senior transition
official" that discussed Russia contacts with Flynn at Mar-a-Lago in Dec
2016
