TradeTheNews.com Weekly
Market Update: Reports of progress on trade and Brexit deals maintain positive
tone in markets
Fri, 14 Sep 2018 16:10 PM EST
Stocks lifted this week on a global basis helped modestly by hopes that US and
China were set to resume trade negotiations in earnest, and amid signals of a
potential softening on both sides of the key impasse holding up Brexit
negotiations. The ECB and BOE left rates unchanged with little fanfare while
the Fed’s Beige book suggested despite the threat of tariffs and rising
corporate costs the US economy remains robust. The Turkish and Russian Central
banks raised rates in somewhat surprising moves that helped suppress fears of
contagion related to emerging market FX volatility. Rates moved up, sending the
US 10-year yield back to 3% for the first time in more than a month despite
benign CPI and PPI data. Though the 3% print followed data indicating August
saw US government outlays jump 30% y/y while receipts fell, resulting in one of
the largest monthly deficits in decades. WTI crude prices moved up early in the
week with the approach of Hurricane Florence but retreated back to the 50-day
moving average ahead of a technical meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC members
on September 23rd. For the week, the DJIA gained 0.9%, the S&P500 added
1.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%.
In corporate news this week, CBS announced a settlement with National
Amusements to dismiss pending litigation in its long-running dispute, and the
company also confirmed Chairman and CEO Les Moonves would depart amid sexual
misconduct allegations. Jack Ma surprised investors by saying he would step
down as chairman from Alibaba to pursue philanthropy, but also said he would
remain on the board to mentor company management going forward. Hershey reached
an agreement to acquire Pirate Brands from B&G Foods for $420M, in a bid to
further expand its healthier snacks portfolio after last year’s acquisition of
Amplify Snack Brands. Kroger shares fell after missing same store sales
consensus estimates, noting pricing pressures and increased competition as
particular headwinds. Verizon announced that customers can now order 5G service
in four US markets for $50/month. Apple held its annual fall product event,
revealing new iPhone models and an updated Apple Watch with new health tracking
features, which sent Fitbit shares lower.
SUNDAY 9/9
CBS Confirms Moonves to depart as Chairman and CEO, effective immediately; CFO
Ianniello to be named as acting CEO; Confirms it and National Amusements agreed
to dismiss pending litigation, National Amusements agrees not to propose
CBS-Viacom merger for at least 2 years
BABA Follow Up: Current CEO Daniel Zhang to succeed Jack Ma as Executive
Chairman, effective Sept 10 2019
MONDAY 9/10
(KR) North Korea Leader Kim said to promise nuclear inspections after declaring
the end of war with South Korea - South Korean Press
(UK) JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.1%E
(UK) JULY GDP M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E
(EU) EURO ZONE SEPT SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 12.0 V 14.3E
(UK) EU Brexit negotiator Barnier: Realistic and possible that we can reach a
Brexit agreement in the next 6-8 weeks
(US) JULY CONSUMER CREDIT: $16.6B V $14.4BE
TUESDAY 9/11
(UK) JULY AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS 3M/Y: 2.6% V 2.4%E; WEEKLY EARNINGS
(EX-BONUS) 3M/Y: 2.9% V 2.8%E
(UK) AUG JOBLESS CLAIMS CHANGE: +8.7K V +10.2K PRIOR; CLAIMANT COUNT RATE: 2.6%
V 2.5% PRIOR
(DE) GERMANY SEPT ZEW CURRENT SITUATION: 76.0 V 72.0E; EXPECTATIONS SURVEY:
-10.6 V -13.5E
(UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond (Fin Min): BOE Carney has agreed to
extend his term (by an additional 7-months) until end-Jan 2020 (as speculated)
(SY) Chemical weapon provocation said to have occurred in Idlib; Syria - Russia
press
(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q3 GDP forecast to 3.8% from 4.4% prior
(CA) Canada reportedly prepared to include talks regarding dairy in NAFTA
negotiations - press
WEDNESDAY 9/12
(UK) Tories openly discussing ousting May at an ERG meeting last night:
Brexiteers clearly split between those who want a true Brexiteer in power (some
Johnson supporters and those who want to chuck Chequers not here (the
@DavidDavisMP camp) - Sky News
(EU) EU's Juncker: UK can't stay a member in parts of single markets only;
welcomes PM May's proposal on EU partnership
(EU) ECB Technical Committee: said to keep inflation outlook unchanged; Sees
downside risks to growth (prior view broadly balance)
(HU) European Parliament votes to trigger Article 7 (nuclear option) sanctions
procedure against Hungary
(US) AUG PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: -0.1% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 3.2%E
(US) DOE CRUDE: -5.3M V -1.5ME; GASOLINE: +1.3M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +6.2M V
+1ME
(US) FEDERAL RESERVE BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMY EXPANDED AT MODERATE PACE THROUGH END
OF AUGUST; 9 of 12 districts reported modest to moderate growth
BGS Hershey to acquire Pirate Brands from B&G Foods for $420M
THURSDAY 9/13
(TR) Turkey President Erdogan: we should cut high interest rate; inflation is
result of CB's wrong steps
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.75%; AS
EXPECTED
(UK) BOE SEPT MINUTES: VOTED 9-0 TO KEEP POLICY STEADY
(TR) TURKEY CENTRAL BANK (CBRT) RAISES ONE-WEEK REPO RATE BY 625BPS TO 24%;
More than expected
(EU) ECB LEAVES 7-DAY MAIN REFINANCING RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.00%; AS EXPECTED
(US) AUG CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; CPI EX FOOD AND ENERGY M/M: 0.1% V 0.2%E; CPI
NSA: 252.146 V 252.396E
(EU) ECB UPDATES STAFF PROJECTIONS
VZ CEO: Customers can order 5G service as of this morning; hoping for 5G
compatible phones in early 2019 - Goldman conf comments
(CN) Pres Trump: We're under no pressure to make deal with China; they're under
pressure to make deal with us
(US) Aug Monthly Budget Statement: -$214.1B v -$187.0Be
FRIDAY 9/14
(TR) Turkey President Erdogen: Lira decline proves economic assassination
attempt; Central bank has made a very high rate increase, his patience is up to
a point on Central bank rates
(US) AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 78.1% V
78.2%E
(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 100.8 V 96.6E (highest
since March)
(US) Prosecutors say former Trump campaign manager Manafort is cooperating with
Special Counsel Mueller's investigation
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q3 GDP forecast to 4.4% from 3.8% prior
(CN) Pres Trump reportedly told advisers to proceed with $200B tariffs on China
- press
(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 1,055 v 1,048 w/w (+0.7% w/w)
