Monday, September 17, 2012

Sep 17 2012

Catch of the day, short at upper envelop of the descending trendline, aggressive entry just prior to major breakdown. Chart speaks for itself.


Caught nice bounce on USO after this drop too, but you'll have to look for it in the log after market close.

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html)  



Session Time: Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2012
01[08:55] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING:-10.4 V -2.00E
[08:55] {goryl} gm
01[08:56] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:09] {jackharry} good morning
01[09:09] {Threei}  jack :)
01[09:15] {Threei}  72% Put Freedom of Speech Ahead of Not Offending Other Cultures
[09:16] {ese} gm
01[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:19] {dino} gm
01[09:20] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:20] {scottie} gm
01[09:20] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:21] {RonS} gm...don't tell nemo but i thought his writing last week was exceptional
[09:21] {Will49} Hi everyone
01[09:21] {Threei}  ron, will :)
01[09:22] {Threei}  I agree
[09:22] {Beau} good morning all
01[09:22] {Threei}  ever since he changed it from merely listing pivot levels to more general market overview, it became real help
01[09:22] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:23] {Threei}  and becomes better by week
[09:26] {robbers} Yep.
[09:26] {dolores} hello GM
01[09:27] {Threei}  robbers, dolores :)
01[09:27] {Threei}  hope e-mails made their way to your boxes
01[09:27] {Threei}  we made another tweak this weekend
[09:28] {jackharry} yes, got ok this week
01[09:28] {Threei}  if some still don't go through, I am afrid this is something out of our control
[09:28] {dolores} I eceived e.mail ok
[09:28] {dolores} received
[09:28] {scottie} ok here
[09:28] {Will49} not me
01[09:29] {Threei}  ok... will seems to be last holdout, lol
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break hl
01[09:31] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[09:33] {Threei}  half out
01[09:33] {Threei}  .20
[09:33] {dolores} wow nice call too fast for me
01[09:33] {Threei}  stop .31
01[09:33] {Threei}  hah... it gave second chance
01[09:34] {Threei}  went to .32 after the call
[09:34] {dolores} did not see that
[09:34] {scottie} slw +.10 ty Vad
01[09:34] {Threei}  yw
[09:35] {dolores} whats with CLf today? down again
[09:35] {dolores} 6t %
01[09:36] {Threei}  JPM donwgraded
[09:36] {dolores} thxs
01[09:37] {Threei}  (PK) Protestors are said to be attempting to storm US consulate in Lahore, Pakistan
01[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .25
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[09:39] {dolores} in LVS
01[09:40] {Threei}  no go
[09:40] {ese} L xom .25 
01[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .45 break
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  39 break
01[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .35 break
[09:44] {ese} fcx barely hangin in there
01[09:44] {Threei}  half out SLW
01[09:45] {Threei}  FCX 1:1 if you got it
01[09:45] {Threei}  1/4 more out SLW
01[09:45] {Threei}  FCX 1:2
[09:46] {ese} didn't but nice call vad
[09:46] {nemo} fcx chart looks just like iwm
01[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .75 break hl
01[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
01[09:47] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:47] {ese} nope
[09:48] {dino} 1st gaps, 2831, 1459
[09:48] {dino} , then 2791
[09:50] {dino} sh l .62 stop lod
01[09:51] {Threei}  last piece SLW stop to .76
[09:52] {nemo} lvs again
01[09:52] {Threei}  out 1:4
[09:53] {dino} jazz spike
[09:57] {dino} tighten sh to .59, things stuck
[09:57] {ese} L xom avg .26
01[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .70 break
01[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[10:03] {Threei}  no worky
[10:04] {RonS} BREAKING: Spanish 10-year yield rises to 6% as bonds slide for third day.
01[10:04] {Threei}  what the deuce.... hasn't world been saved last week?
[10:05] {nemo} wow...flat market
01[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break
01[10:09] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
01[10:09] {Threei}  what was that on GLD
01[10:10] {Threei}  change LVS to .20 break
01[10:12] {Threei}  half out if got it
01[10:12] {Threei}  was a bit abrupt
[10:15] {RonS} caught +.16 lvs  thanks 3i
01[10:16] {Threei}  wtg
01[10:16] {Threei}  wasn't easiest execution wise
01[10:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .25 break
01[10:21] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
01[10:23] {Threei}  target .45 - .50
01[10:25] {Threei}  half out
[10:27] {dino} sphb l .99
[10:28] {ese} xom............do it!
[10:28] {scottie} +.18 thanks Vad
01[10:28] {Threei}  target hit, out
[10:28] {ese} almost stopped out there by a couple of cents
01[10:28] {Threei}  this one was very available, no excuses
[10:29] {dolores} 15 cents thxs
01[10:29] {Threei}  :)
[10:30] {Will49} tks Vad 1:2
01[10:31] {Threei}  welcome guys
[10:32] {robbers} Nice trade.
01[10:41] {Threei}  US) Fed's Lacker (hawk, lone FOMC dissenting voter): QE3 will have lesser impact on job creation and a greater impact on inflation; the economy is largely beyond the influence of more Fed easing- Larger Fed balance sheet makes the policy exit riskier.
01[10:43] {Threei}  Swing State Daily Tracking: #Romney 47%, #Obama 45%
01[10:48] {Threei}  JAZZ Hearing strength attributed to positive markman ruling in case over Xyrem patents
01[10:51] {Threei}  market is interestingly nervous
01[10:51] {Threei}  jwrky action
[10:53] {dino} dji stick in 10 pt eange
01[10:54] {Threei}  considering that Fed has removed itself from any kind of new action for the foreseeavle future, it doesn't bode well for bulls
01[10:54] {Threei}  focus is back on Europe
01[10:55] {Threei}  and it looks as fractured as before ECB grandstanding
01[10:55] {Threei}  if not more
[10:55] {dino} well rates tell the tale
01[10:55] {Threei}  right
[10:56] {nemo} bonds sneakily strong
[10:59] {nemo} nke
[10:59] {nemo} things ar sooooooooo sloooooooowwwwww
[11:00] {Will49} is market just going to wait for more EU news?
[11:01] {nemo} No...it's a Jewish Holiday and Options Expiration week after a very strong run
[11:01] {Will49} I see
[11:01] {nemo} The likely news to move the market now is out of the Middle East
[11:01] {nemo} imo
[11:01] {Will49} tks
[11:02] {ese} gotta go  ...up .15 tom....stop loss in cya tomorrow
[11:02] {ese} xom
01[11:05] {Threei}  take care ese
[11:10] {nemo} bonds still climbing as the market does nothing
[11:11] {dino} vmc sm l .51
[11:13] {nemo} don't give it much room  44.71 support
[11:15] {dino} thk
[11:15] {RonS} ?
01[11:15] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 break hl
[11:16] {dino} stop -.24
01[11:16] {Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {dino} skul sm l .20
[11:24] {dino} this has to be the slowest day in sept
[11:25] {dolores} CAT short again?break .40?
[11:25] {RonS} typical for this holiday...
01[11:26] {Threei}  I doubt it dolores
[11:26] {dolores} ok
[11:28] {dino} vmc rinsed
[11:32] {nemo} mcp steady climb
[11:32] {nemo} clf
[11:33] {dino} arii drop
01[11:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  MOS  .80 break
01[11:42] {Threei}  change to .70 break
01[11:42] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[11:42] {Threei}  target .95
01[11:46] {Threei}  1:1
[11:47] {dolores} .16 thanks
[11:47] {scottie} +.19 thanks Vad
01[11:47] {Threei}  :)
[11:50] {Will49} .18 tks Vad
01[11:50] {Threei}  target hit, out
01[12:16] {Threei}  a few too soon, eh
[12:21] {Will49} better a little soon than a little late for me :)
[12:22] {Will49} at this stage
[12:22] {Will49} better for my state of mind
[12:24] {scottie} I'M with you on that one Will
[12:25] {Will49} Yeah Scottie, I'm surprised at myself....getting bummed out if my P/L starts to slip
[12:26] {Will49} never would have guessed
[12:26] {scottie} lol
[12:26] {Will49} don't know whether that's good or bad
[12:27] {Will49} maybe it' my Scottish heritage:D
[12:27] {scottie} I guess we can't all be Mr Spock
[12:27] {Will49} true dat
01[12:28] {Threei}  hide P/L column
01[12:28] {Threei}  so you don't look at it while in trade
[12:28] {Will49} now..that's a great idea
01[12:28] {Threei}  trade management decision must be derived from stock action
01[12:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  POT  43 break
01[12:49] {Threei}  Invalidated  
01[12:49] {Threei}  (obviously)
[12:50] {scottie} gpor 33 long ?
01[12:51] {Threei}  not sure...
[12:51] {scottie} ok thanks
01[12:52] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Govt Official: Talks with the Troika will continue each day until conclusions are reached- Reminder: earlier today Greece Fin Min Stournaras comments that so far agreed with EU/IMF/ECB Troika on �7.5B out of �13.5B of new measures
01[12:53] {Threei}  I have this feeling that 10 years later, when there is no EU, when AAPL makes iPhone 89 and MSFT - Win 243, we still are going to see Greece debt discussions
[12:54] {RonS} lol
01[12:54] {Threei}  troika will just enjoy permanent vacation
[12:55] {Will49} jawboning and BS ad infinitum
01[12:55] {Threei}  and will pretend they don't even notice there is issue to resolve
[12:55] {Will49} sad isn't it?
01[12:55] {Threei}  not for troika members
01[12:56] {Threei}  I mean Greece is very nice in all seasons
[12:56] {Will49} Karma still in force, just may take a while
01[12:58] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Surprised by recent comments by Slovenia; not expecting Slovenia to require an aid program
01[12:59] {Threei}  what did Slovenia say?
01[13:01] {Threei}  Slovenia PM commented that austerity measures needed through 2014 period; Govt spending needed to boost banking sector and on 9/3 Slovenia Fin Min: Bank debt consolidation is on the agenda, ending credit crunch is key. Planning a trip to the US for US bond offering.
[13:04] {RonS} he better bring a map...
01[13:04] {Threei}  rofl
[13:04] {RonS} slo who...slo what?
01[13:04] {Threei}  I imagine this...
01[13:05] {Threei}  sovenia? where is it?
01[13:05] {Threei}  sLovenie
01[13:05] {Threei}  whatever... where is it?
01[13:05] {Threei}  here, see, I circled it on the map
[13:05] {RonS} rotflol
01[13:05] {Threei}  wait... it doesn't look familiar... where is Mexico?
01[13:05] {Threei}  Mexico?? It's Europe!!
01[13:06] {Threei}  Ummm... OK... so, where is Mexico?
01[13:06] {Threei}  what do you mean different continent? there are more continents??
[13:06] {RonS} ur killing me...tears here
[13:06] {Will49} good one Vad
01[13:07] {Threei}  well, I still remember the salesman from NY store who, when I asked how much the delivery to Canada would cost, told me "sorry, no shipping overseas"
[13:07] {Will49} lol
[13:24] {nemo} set alerts for iwm .75, might get to .72
[13:27] {dino} yoku drop
[13:31] {scottie} cie s. .90 ?
01[13:32] {Threei}  Gross: Central banks are where bad bonds go to die
01[13:32] {Threei}  hard to tell
[13:33] {scottie} ok
01[13:33] {Threei}  trades by apppintment
[13:40] {nemo} intu
[13:41] {nemo} lyb
01[13:42] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .30 break hl
01[13:42] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[13:42] {nemo} nav
[13:44] {nemo} HCA
01[13:47] {Threei}  changing to aggressive
01[13:47] {Threei}  .35 break
01[13:47] {Threei}  stop .43
[13:47] {dino} crr sm l .60 trig
01[13:48] {Threei}  half out
01[13:48] {Threei}  aggressive entries, I luv you wholeheartedly
01[13:49] {Threei}  stop to .36
01[13:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out .17
01[13:51] {Threei}  don't tell me no one took it
01[13:51] {Threei}  I'll remove myself to a monastery
01[13:51] {Threei}  very remote one
01[13:51] {Threei}  look at this cascade
[13:52] {scottie} Was watching something else, didn't see your call :(
[13:52] {nemo} carful around here iwm
[13:52] {jackharry} out at .18, thanks
01[13:52] {Threei}  monastery... Tibet... here I come
[13:52] {Will49} just glanced away for a second...then too late
01[13:52] {Threei}  awww... jack... no monastery
01[13:52] {Threei}  out in full .03
01[13:53] {Threei}  +.33
01[13:53] {Threei}  .31
[13:53] {Will49} tears
[13:53] {dino} gj
[13:53] {jackharry} sorry, i'll make sure i miss the next one
01[13:53] {Threei}  lol
01[13:53] {Threei}  and it was all-female one...
01[13:54] {Threei}  wow, what a drop
01[13:59] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/xMsz8
[14:06] {dolores} ok guys have to go, see you tomorrow
[14:06] {dolores} thxs VAD
01[14:06] {Threei}  take care dolores, hope you did well today
01[14:06] {Threei}  decent day
01[14:06] {Threei}  no wonder, looking at the SPY
01[14:07] {Threei}  even though we adjusted tio the climb of late, we still do better in downward market
01[14:08] {Threei}  $4 drop in crude futures being attributed to fat finger trade ahead of expiry- Crude fell from $98.70 to $94.83 in a matter of five minutes, which also impacted gold futures and the USD. - Note Oct WTI futures expire on 9/20. - Other comments in the rumor mill are raising concerns about a "crude flash crash" and also reiterating the rumors of an SPR release that have been going around for the last month.
01[14:08] {Threei}  huh
01[14:08] {Threei}  flash crash in our favor?
01[14:12] {Threei}  wow
01[14:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  USO  .55 break hl
01[14:16] {Threei}  If holds  .45 
01[14:17] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[14:18] {Threei}  1:1
01[14:20] {Threei}  1:2
01[14:22] {Threei}  am I alone here?
[14:22] {dino} out uso +.19 ty vad
01[14:22] {Threei}  :)
[14:22] {Will49} .14 tks Vad
[14:22] {jackharry} no, sorry i managed to get this one too, i'll try harder next time
01[14:22] {Threei}  welcome guys
[14:23] {Will49} come on Jack...get with the program
01[14:23] {Threei}  oh, tnhat's OK jack, monastery idea is dead for the day...
01[14:23] {Threei}  maybe tomorrow
01[14:23] {Threei}  they'll have more time to get broadband internet in that cave
[14:24] {scottie} great +.20 thanks Vad
01[14:24] {Threei}  :)
[14:25] {Will49} was that first trade we've seen where Dino went to school on Vad?
[14:25] {dino} ;)
[14:27] {Will49} lookit er go, eh?
[14:27] {Will49} that's Canadian lingo
[14:43] {nemo} 146.25 in the cards if we don't bounce here
[14:48] {RonS} Rumor that an Algo detected chatter about a spr  release
[14:48] {nemo} NKE interesting spot
[14:49] {nemo} It's defecate or get off the commode time
01[14:50] {Threei}  commode? hmmm
01[14:50] {Threei}  note to myself: whatever you fo, never ever share furnished room with nemo
[14:51] {nemo} huh?
[14:51] {dino} i guess in obamination terms, election is as stetegic as you get for oil release
01[14:51] {Threei}  lol
[14:54] {robbers} Strategic pandering.
[14:55] {dino} lol, guess i butchered the spelling on that
[14:56] {nemo} yeah...you suck
[14:56] {dino} today, yeah
[14:56] {RonS} ...was figuring you were speaking ebonics...
[14:56] {Will49} you got obamination correct
[14:56] {dino} lol
[14:57] {dino} heard a funny one the other day, Obummer
[14:57] {Will49} picturesque
[14:58] {nemo} nke two wa here
[14:59] {Will49} had an eskimo girlfriend once named nke two wa
[14:59] {nemo} not going there
[14:59] {dino} lol
[14:59] {Will49} niether was I
[15:00] {RonS} rotflol
01[15:00] {Threei}  lol
[15:00] {robbers} lol.
01[15:02] {Threei}  CME responds to inquiries regarding Crude price; not aware of any technical difficulties that could have resulted in the action - financial press- Follow up; CNBC notes it was hearing that technical levels could have resulted in the sell off - Follow up: NYMEX comments that it is unaware of any technical difficulties that could account for move - Follow up: White House spokesperson Carney noted there has been no change to oil reserves
01[15:03] {Threei}  What, it wasn't HFT fault? Hard to believe... it just has to be
[15:24] {thomcbell} hi everyone - been taking a few days working on an outside project 
01[15:25] {Threei}  hi tbell
01[15:25] {Threei}  missed great day
[15:26] {thomcbell} i bet - i see some nice setups in our favs 
[15:26] {Will49} is there anything outside of trading?
[15:27] {thomcbell} im a co-producer on a small independent film - we just finished day 3 of 10 
[15:27] {Will49} wow...we know a celebrity
[15:28] {thomcbell} not yet - :) n
[15:28] {robbers} comedy, drama, doc?
[15:30] {thomcbell} drama - thriller - think Rosemary Baby with Alien impregnation instead of Devil
[15:30] {dino} sounds familiar
[15:30] {Will49} right down your aley Vad
[15:30] {Will49} alley
[15:31] {nemo} spy coming into WPP
[15:31] {robbers} Cool, Thom, good luck.
[15:33] {dino} gl tbell
[15:35] {thomcbell} thanks all
[15:43] {Will49} as Yogi Berra once said, "it's getting late real early today"
[15:45] {nemo} vwap run
01[15:50] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:50] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {Will49} good day, Vad
[15:51] {scottie} good night see you tomorrow

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 9/16/2012

The week that was:

For those of you who followed the "unconsciousness" blog last week, just drop down to the 14th.

9/10/2012:  ZZZZZzzzzzzz....well, not really.  Many stocks had relatively significant movement yesterday.  The indexes did some meandering, with IWM testing the ranges: first the old resistance from Thursday, that became new support on Friday-which it tested twice, and then by gently piercing the Friday highs just under yesterday's confluence of the Daily R1 and the Quarterly R1with an end of day descent leaving it resting on the Monthly R1 and Daily S1.  SPY's low bottomed at 144 (there's the test of the whole number again) near the 144.02 daily S1 then breaching Friday's high before joining the IWM and financials in the afternoon descent closing at the Daily S3.

Notice how SPY and IWM's movements were not correlated until the final descent starting 1:45.

Financials, tested the Friday's high's concurrently with the SPY and then were weak the rest of the day touching the daily S2 before closing slightly above.

Bonds, as can be expected, rallied into the close as the indexes sputtered.

Now for the descent....I'm on record expecting a relative meandering until the German pronouncements. I of course, could be wrong.  What could be the psychology of the market going into the 12th?

We've just had a long bullish run.  We're coming into a relatively short time period of relative uncertainty.  What do you do?  Simple...you take some profit, or hedge.  Thus the weakness, or at least a reasonable explanation of the weakness.  Which leads me to my, Nemo-you moron...moment.  

Today is 9/11....mmmmmhhhh, which coincidently is the day before the pronouncement.  If the market is us, and the algo's are programmed by us, might that lead to a bit of hesitancy psychologically?   Just sayin'...

Watch the weekly pivots, and watch previous ranges for the action to test them.

9/11/2012:  Let's see what today brings.  The futures are relatively subdued as the clock ticks by 7:42... 

Sure this isn't Groundhog day?  Indexes and financials lifted off those levels to test, in the case of SPY, and surpass albeit slightly in the case of IWM, and then proceeded to sell off, although they closed above yesterday:  IWM just about above the daily pivot, and SPY also just above the daily pivot.

Financials stayed strong all day, so didn't  the "Vampire Squid" GS, although it did sell off to close right on VWAP.

One more interesting tidbit.  The $ sold off significantly, yet the market couldn't maintain the rally.  Is it more a question of strength for the Euro and the expectation of a German "Die Daumen Auf! -thumbs up  (well that's literal...they don't really say that) for the ECB.

Clear as mud...

So, either the strong financials led by GS are signalling all is clear, or the last two days have been distribution.  Tick...tick...tick...tick  

9/12/2012:  The Germans, as expected, didn't go Kamikaze (mixed historic metaphors there)  on the EU/ECB.   Indexes held the range, and GS finished near the top of it's range.  

Can See Lloyd (doing God's work) Blankfein lubing up the arm to shove up Bernanke's ass to make his lips move tomorrow.

9/13/2012:  And the bearded clams delivered!!!!   Free money 24 hours a day 8 days a week as far as the eye can see!!!  

He's taking 40 billion a month of that bad collateral off the hands of the bank.   Mmmmhhhh...raw materials and oil ripped north with the decision.  I wonder how far the economy can go as oil climbs towards it's 2008 highs with the Middle East looking more like a powder keg every day?

We're not far away from my month end target of 153 spy.  There are headwinds in the 150 area.  IWM finished Thursday off, but got withing .70 USD of its 2011 highs.  Expecting gap up on Friday, with the potential for profit taking going into the afternoon.

I expect this bus to keep going north into the elections.  There is nothing to slow this train down unless earnings season is a disaster.

9/14/2012:  The Bernanke action carried over into Friday very nicely.  No surprise there. If you look at the tops on Friday in the IWM, SPY and FAS, you'll notice something interesting.  SPY basically topped out at the daily R1,  FAS topped out at the Monthly R3, and IWM the laggard behind the SPY topped out in the vicinity of 4 different levels:  

  1. it surpassed it's all time high as I thought it would, and then 
  2. topped out by just breaking the weekly R2, which was within a coupla'cents of 
  3. a Fib extension I've been tracking, and 
  4. to the frickin' penny on a fib extension from yesterday's Benny burst.



The week that is:



O.K. so we've had quite a run.  My predictions have been pretty accurate, but let's get something straight about predictions.  It's a bullshit exercise of my ego.

We have fun with it, and it's a natural predeliction of the human animal to want clarity, and thus to declare knowledge in something that cannot be "known," and of course there's the ability to dislocate my shoulder and pat myself on the back...Vad has a high level of expertise at that ;-).

Fact is, everything in this game is a probability.   Price action is all that matters.  Actually, by having a preconceived idea of where I think something is going I automatically insert bias into my thinking.  Having scenarios is good, but bias can influence your decisions in a bad way, not allowing you to see when action is going against your pre-conceived knowledge.

Frankly, that's what the Zen mind, and the Taoist principle of Wu Wei (non-interference) is about.  You've got programs in your head that process the inputs from your external sensors (eyes, ears, etc.) The accuracy of processing is determined by the accuracy of the programs in your brain.  The Zen (Cha'an in Chinese)  mind is about getting the programmed mind out of the way so that you can accurately process information from the external environment without bias. 

What's worse, because of the chronic human disease of Pride, the more often I'm right, the greater the probability I start to believe my own taurine excrement. Thus the saying, "Pride cometh before the fall."

Funny how the market is just a microcosm of life, huh?

(I have to chime in at this point with link to A Taoist Trader course. If you like the way of thinking in the text above, it's a must. - V.G.)


All I've done is looked at the relationships of how things seem to be moving, and frankly figuring the Germans wouldn't punt, and that Bernanke would ease was just probabilities.  People have been expecting easing for months.  So every month he said "no," brought us closer to when he would say, "yes,"  because, one could easily make the argument that structurally things aren't really any better than they have been and that environmental factors are actually worse.

Also, by committing to open ended QE, Bernanke has now taken himself out of the "will he," or "won't he" dynamic in regards to Fed intervention in the markets.  So now, that is one less variable upon which the market will trade-it is now a relatively fixed parameter.  


He is now passing the ball to Washington, which frankly, doesn't make me sleep better at night, to address the fiscal situation.  Give Bernanke credit, he's been telling the D. C. cretins to get their fiscal house in order since Day One of his reign, and look how far we've come...not

Now, the market is more likely to trade on economic information.



This week is Op Ex and a triple witching hour, so we could be looking at some serious shenanigans in the market depending on where option positions are on any given issue, so where the market is going probably won't be determined until next week, which, after the run it's had, a reasonably range bound week would be considered a consolidation, and a reasonable expectation.  Then again, we're still open to headline risk, so watch what the action does if some serious news pops up.  If it sells off and then is bought right  back, trend is in tact and market is still strong.  If history repeats itself, we'll be strong through the election, but... 

December 21st 2012 is right around the corner  ;-)  Maybe you should spend some of it...just in case...oy vay.



IWM:  you will notice there are three red lines between 84.70ish and 86.80ish.  Those were price swing highs going back to 2011.  They are not pivot levels, but given they were important points reasonably close together, price action may orbit around that area to consolidate next week...or not.  The rising daily 50 SMA is at 80.50.  I would likely think that the extreme bottom, and given the 4 day consolidation between 84 and 84.60ish, barring Headline news, we stay above that.  As far as how far north we can go...clean air up here.

SPY:  Same 4 day consolidation likely to act as support in the 143.50-144.60 area, no significant resistance until 149.10