Dec 07 2012

Slow but still profitable day despite somewhat rough start. Finishing a week with no single losing day.

Session Time: Fri Dec 07 00:00:00 2012

[08:55] }patel} Good Morning :) :) :)

01[08:56] }Threei}  morning patel

[09:03] }scottie} good morning

01[09:03] }Threei}  scottie :)

[09:07] }Beau} good morning

01[09:07] }Threei}  beau :)

[09:12] }nemo} Vad's favorite kind of day

[09:12] }nemo} call Dino, tell him to back to bed

[09:13] }nemo}   Gap and Crap, or Gap and Go, or Gap and ......................?

01[09:14] }Threei}  my feel is, gap and crap

01[09:14] }Threei}  another meaningless jobs number props bounce into shaky market

[09:15] }dino} gm

01[09:16] }Threei}  dino :)

[09:22] }Will49} Good morning

01[09:22] }Threei}  will :)

01[09:23] }Threei}  in case you ever wondered how nemo would have looked and spoken if he were a cat, http://goo.gl/quxST

[09:23] }robbers} CNBC saying jobs numbers are distorted.

01[09:23] }Threei}  yes

01[09:24] }Threei}  hunderds of thousand dropped from workforce

01[09:24] }Threei}  same trick that helped it down to 7.9 last month

[09:25] }robbers} Yep, people who're just not looking anymore.  And right, same trick(s).

01[09:25] }Threei}  participation numbers meanwhile stay under 64% for almost a year, one of the lowest in history

01[09:26] }Threei}  then again look at this:

01[09:26] }Threei}  (ES) Some economists see Spain unemployment peaking at 28-30%, possibly in 2014, with 2013 unemployment worse than 2012's- Europa press

01[09:26] }Threei}  maybe we need to stop complaining, lol

[09:26] }robbers} Also, employment is just one side of the story, what about "real" wage levels?

[09:27] }robbers} In Spain, the unemployment rate for those under 25 years old is something like 50%.

01[09:27] }Threei}  ask, and...

01[09:27] }Threei}  *(US) NOV AVG HOURLY EARNING M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E; AVG WEEKLY HOURS: 34.4 V 34.4E

[09:28] }robbers} I know my real wages were off a bit...until yesterday's trading.

01[09:28] }Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): President Obama's plan for dealing with the fiscal cliff is a joke, would hurt job growth ***Note that yesterday afternoon, there were reports that budget discussions had resumed between President Obama and House Speaker Boehner, with some signs of progress

01[09:28] }Threei}  glad we could help it :)

01[09:29] }Threei}  someone sent me an article couple years ago, about insentives structured in a way that makes it more sensible for a woman with 2 kids to remain at 29K a year job than go to 69K

01[09:29] }Threei}  this is insane

[09:29] }ese} gm

01[09:29] }Threei}  ese :)

[09:30] }nemo} that was a study from 2011 by PA state Secretary on Welfare

[09:30] }nemo} no incentive between 30k and 70k to get a higher paying job

01[09:31] }Threei} Long Setup:  SWHC  .20 break hl

01[09:32] }Threei}  If holds  .10 

[09:32] }nemo} yeah baby

[09:32] }nemo} my kinda' merchandise

01[09:32] }Threei}  lol

[09:32] }dino} except pride, which is not considered anymore

[09:32] }nemo} although there's an old joke about their quality:  By a Smith and send it right to the Smith

01[09:32] }Threei}  seems pride is now in becoming better moocher

[09:33] }nemo} game the system

[09:33] }nemo} just like europe

01[09:33] }Threei}  no go

[09:33] }thomcbell} short setup lvs 44.40 break if holding 44.50 

[09:33] }nemo} let's see if they try to push 143 on spy

[09:33] }thomcbell} target is 1:2

[09:34] }thomcbell} 1:1

[09:34] }thomcbell} 1:2 and out

[09:34] }nemo} 10 year at the monthly pivot

[09:34] }robbers} Nice job.

[09:34] }scottie} great call tbell

[09:34] }Will49} wtg

[09:34] }nemo} lvs

[09:34] }patel} nice job. 

[09:35] }thomcbell} tu

[09:35] }thomcbell} fb has some fight here initially 

01[09:35] }Threei}  nice plunge

01[09:35] }Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .45 break

01[09:35] }Threei}  If holds  .55 

[09:38] }ese} L amrn .75

[09:38] }ese} amrn

[09:38] }ese} a m r n......looks like 2 m's above

01[09:39] }Threei}  capitalize it :)

01[09:39] }Threei}  SPY looks read to drop

[09:40] }thomcbell} short setup aIG 34.06 break if holding 34.2

01[09:42] }Threei}  no go SLW

01[09:42] }Threei}  it must be blind

[09:46] }thomcbell} short setup fcx 31.88 break if holding 32

[09:46] }thomcbell} aig invalidated 

01[09:49] }Threei} Short Setup: SFD  .80 break

01[09:49] }Threei}  hl

[09:49] }thomcbell} fcx nope 

01[09:52] }Threei}  disregard SFD, way too slow

01[09:52] }Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .95 break

[09:52] }dino} amrn hl l .60 stop lod

01[09:52] }Threei}  hl

01[09:52] }Threei}  If holds  .10 

01[09:54] }Threei}  stop

01[09:54] }Threei}  not liking this morning

[09:54] }Will49} join the club

01[09:54] }Threei}  things don't match the indices

[09:55] }nemo} this is more fun than flossing with barbed wire

[09:55] }patel} today is just one of them days. 

01[09:55] }Threei}  *(US) DEC PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 74.5 V 82.0E

[09:55] }ese} oh oh

01[09:58] }Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .60 break

01[10:00] }Threei}  target 1:2

01[10:02] }Threei} Long Setup:  YUM  .50 break hl

01[10:02] }Threei}  SLW 1:1

01[10:05] }Threei}  YUM two-sided, .40 -.50

[10:05] }ese} L go .31av

[10:06] }ese} avgo

[10:06] }nemo} right

[10:06] }scottie} wow

01[10:06] }Threei}  ummm

01[10:06] }Threei}  lol

[10:06] }ese} something wrong with my keyboard

[10:06] }patel} I longed a little GM at 24.76. How does it look? 

[10:06] }dino} bidu sm l .60

[10:06] }nemo} classic, you have to make a bet and buy before the break

[10:06] }patel} I sold half and have my other half at breakeven

01[10:06] }Threei}  looks good

01[10:06] }Threei}  just let it trade

01[10:07] }Threei}  ese, looked at YUM break?

01[10:07] }Threei}  just wanted you to see why we don't use market orders on breakouts

[10:07] }ese} not yet...will do now

[10:07] }patel} How about FRAN at 24.83. 

[10:08] }patel} stop would be 24.62

[10:08] }ese} good one..........missed it

[10:08] }patel} I will leave it alone. 

01[10:08] }Threei}  why not under .70? .62 is a bit too wide

01[10:08] }Threei}  you should have seen it real time ese

01[10:09] }Threei}  market order woyuld get you in good 10 cents above the break, if not 12

[10:09] }dino} \out bidu .14, +.54

[10:09] }ese} looks instantaneous 

01[10:09] }Threei}  SLW is coming into target

01[10:09] }Threei}  1:2, out

[10:09] }robbers} out slw, thanks.

01[10:09] }Threei}  yw

[10:09] }scottie} +.19 tks Vad

01[10:09] }Threei}  :)

[10:10] }thomcbell} aig short setup 34.33 break if holding 34.42

[10:11] }dino} no cipher today. bummer he's usually good for 200 or so

[10:13] }ese} indeed

[10:13] }ese} a m r n .......do it

[10:14] }thomcbell} aig 1:1

[10:14] }ese} hit the 10 mark thats all i want

[10:15] }dino} same buddy

[10:16] }dino} ne hl l .50

[10:16] }nemo} whoa amrn

[10:16] }nemo} that was stop hunt to vwap

[10:16] }ese} sucre blu

[10:16] }patel} AVP

[10:17] }patel} what is up with that one. 

[10:19] }thomcbell} FB 27.28 break if holding 27.18

01[10:20] }Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .90 break

01[10:20] }Threei}  If holds  44 

[10:23] }ese} bounced off the vwap nemo.....amrn

[10:24] }dino} alog

[10:24] }nemo} [10:16] }nemo} that was stop hunt to vwap

01[10:24] }Threei} Short Setup: RIG  .20 break hl

[10:24] }ese} ya

01[10:24] }Threei}  If holds  .30 

[10:25] }nemo} dull market

[10:25] }nemo} rig

[10:25] }nemo} sorry

[10:25] }patel} my GM is still strong 

01[10:25] }Threei}  yes but might be topping

01[10:26] }Threei}  those two red tails

01[10:26] }Threei}  LVS is valid again

[10:26] }patel} FRAN is just out there. 

[10:26] }patel} I just killed FRAN. 

[10:28] }ese} sharp double bottom 1min btu.............damn missed it

[10:28] }patel} what about short SWHC below 10

[10:28] }ese} too many stocks so little time

[10:28] }dino} lol

[10:29] }dino} same could be said about bars and women

01[10:29] }Threei}  lol

[10:29] }ese} was said wasn't it

01[10:29] }Threei}  SWHC is down too much for my taste from the top with no bounce

[10:29] }patel} yeah

01[10:29] }Threei}  I am not keen on shorting it here

[10:29] }ese} good reference if were talking about golf to

[10:30] }dino} indeed

[10:30] }dino} out ne .65, +.15

[10:31] }robbers} wtg

[10:31] }ese} why not..........good one dino

[10:31] }patel} what about CVC 14.51 with 14.46 stop

[10:31] }dino} ty

[10:31] }dino} 07 red, stepping aside

[10:32] }patel} nevermind

[10:32] }patel} SPY is at lod

01[10:33] }Threei}  RIG's valid

[10:33] }nemo} interesting, headline was good on jobs report, looking under the hood it was not good, market seems to be reacting as such...Wile E. Coyote moment, followed by the requisite, "OH Shit!"

[10:33] }thomcbell} aig 1:2

[10:34] }thomcbell} FB was obviously invalidated

01[10:34] }Threei}  LVS 1:1

[10:35] }thomcbell} covereing rest of aig here 34.08

01[10:37] }Threei}  wtg

[10:37] }dino} gj

[10:37] }patel} nj

[10:42] }nemo} finnies still weak

01[10:46] }Threei}  ok RIG

01[10:47] }Threei}  time to die horrible death

[10:48] }scottie} IR l 49 ?

01[10:48] }Threei}  hl

[10:49] }patel} boehner about to talk

[10:50] }thomcbell} fcx might have a 32.30 break here for a trade - not doing it right now 

01[10:52] }Threei}  let's trail RIG to .26

[10:54] }thomcbell} 0.20 break on fcx will bring 32 quickly 

[10:56] }thomcbell} lvs pivot 43.61 Vad if your still there 

01[10:56] }Threei}  Boehner is about to send this market flying or plunging

01[10:57] }Threei}  and my bet is rather on latter

[10:59] }thomcbell} fcx 1:2 if u did it 

[10:59] }ese} hmmmmmm.......gotta hunch that a m r n is gonna mainline at .70 all day and do nothing......

[11:00] }nemo} fcx a long now

[11:00] }ese} regardless........have to go......have a great weekend.......cya monday

01[11:00] }Threei}  take care ese, have a good one

01[11:01] }Threei}  1:1

01[11:01] }Threei}  doesn't sound good, Boehner

[11:04] }scottie} +.19 rig tks Vad

01[11:04] }Threei}  :)

01[11:04] }Threei}  with 3 wins in a row, life becomes brighter

[11:05] }thomcbell} FB trying here - thru 27.28 break 

01[11:06] }Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): There is no progress to report in fiscal cliff negotiations, the White House has wasted another week, has given us no counter offer- The president's strategy is sending the US toward the fiscal cliff. Geithner's comment that the Administration is willing to go over the fiscal cliff is "reckless talk." - Describes phone discussion with Obama earlier this week as "pleasant" but "more of the same." - "When is he going to take a step toward us?"

[11:07] }patel} FB looks strong

[11:07] }patel} not in it due to boner. 

[11:08] }nemo} 141.96 area is the 50 sma, which of course, is close to 142...I think we end up around here for the close

[11:08] }dino} rgr blood

[11:09] }thomcbell} fb 1:1

[11:11] }dino} clf hl l .50

[11:17] }scottie} TEVA l .20 ?

[11:17] }patel} CVC???

01[11:18] }Threei}  TEVA, yeah

01[11:18] }Threei}  wow... what's so unusual about CVC?

[11:19] }patel} My reasoning is gap up with a pullback. Looks pretty clean on the 15's. 

01[11:19] }Threei}  not today, I don't think so

[11:19] }patel} okay. 

01[11:20] }Threei}  too narrow to be a runner to 15 within a day

[11:20] }dino} market has really slowed down

[11:20] }patel} yeah

[11:21] }nemo} fcx might go here

[11:23] }thomcbell} long nemo?

[11:23] }thomcbell} im long with a stop below that reaction low - i bought thru 32 

[11:24] }nemo} yes if market holds next level would be .83ish

[11:24] }scottie} in teva .21

[11:27] }thomcbell} do u have a target on FCX - nemo?

[11:27] }nemo} .20ish is first resistance area

[11:28] }thomcbell} right that is what i have too

[11:28] }nemo} partial along the way though, I don't think the range expands much more fcx vwap is .20

[11:28] }nemo} spy vwap

[11:28] }nemo} sorry

[11:32] }dino} stop clf -.30

[11:36] }thomcbell} fcx misbehaving 

[11:37] }nemo} now showing wealkness compared to market but this is a confluence area low

[11:38] }scottie} half out teva

01[11:38] }Threei}  :)

01[11:38] }Threei}  54% Put Economic Growth Ahead of Economic Fairness

01[11:38] }Threei}  really? didn't look this way Nov 6

[11:40] }patel} thoughts on TIBX over 20.50

[11:40] }patel} nice job scottie

01[11:40] }Threei}  .45 break would be a long on TIBX but it needs to hold .35

[11:41] }scottie} tks

01[11:41] }Threei}  which is doesn't

[11:42] }patel} DG strong

[11:42] }dino} rgr hl l .00

[11:43] }scottie} stop teva .24

[11:45] }dino} ctxs spike

[11:46] }dino} hl s .91 wide

[11:51] }dino} cov ctxs .31, +.60

[11:51] }Will49} good one dino

[11:51] }dino} ty

01[11:51] }Threei}  wtg

[11:51] }robbers} gj

[11:51] }Beau} great dino

[11:51] }scottie} nerves of steel

[11:51] }dino} bit hairy there

01[11:52] }Threei}  finally, my favorite politician gal is coming on TV

01[11:52] }Threei}  (US) House minority leader Pelosi to hold press conf at Noon ET

[11:52] }dino} yuk

[11:52] }Will49} botox babe

01[11:53] }Threei}  what a waste of botox

[11:54] }dino} rgr stop -.36

01[11:56] }Threei}  SWHC, what a disheartening smackdown

[11:57] }dino} out amrn .64, +.04 thing won't move

[11:59] }dino} swhc gap 9.44

[12:00] }dino} making selling off on pigosi

01[12:00] }Threei}  lol

[12:01] }thomcbell} now looking for a formal fcx long setup 

[12:02] }dino} as opposed to informal? tux vs jeans?

[12:02] }thomcbell} ala Vad 

01[12:02] }Threei}  lol

[12:02] }dino} just funnin' w/ya

[12:03] }thomcbell} 31.77 break if holding 31.70 target 32

[12:04] }thomcbell} ok im in thee 

[12:04] }thomcbell} there 

[12:06] }thomcbell} 1:1

[12:06] }thomcbell} fcx

01[12:06] }Threei}  :)

[12:08] }thomcbell} flattened balance at break even 

[12:08] }thomcbell} will continue to watch for a nother setup 

[12:12] }dino} jwn drop

[12:13] }Will49} tks scottie +.14 teva

01[12:13] }Threei}  (US) House Minority Leader Pelosi (D-CA): Republicans have only offered empty letters in negotiations with the Democrats over the fiscal cliff- Reiterates the only thing standing in the way of middle class tax cuts are Republicans holding out on tax rate increases for the top 2%; highlights the same 2% receive a cut as well as part of the middle class tax cut

01[12:13] }Threei}  I seriosuly think they'll let it happen

01[12:14] }Threei}  how did she manage to contradict herself in one senetnce?

[12:14] }dino} what do they care

01[12:14] }Threei}  "tax rate increases for the top 2%; highlights the same 2% receive a cut as well as part of the middle class tax cut"

01[12:15] }Threei}  so is it tax increase or tax cut for 2%?

01[12:15] }Threei}  make up your mind, woman

01[12:16] }Threei}  they care about driving stick through republicans, dino... and their strategy will do just that

01[12:16] }Threei}  they'll push and push for more concessions making it impossible for republicans to agree,

01[12:16] }Threei}  then when deadline comes, there won't be a deal,

01[12:17] }Threei}  taxes go up for everyone, next day they come back with tax cut for under $200,000

01[12:17] }Threei}  republicans can't vote against that

01[12:17] }Threei}  so democrats will get all they want while making republicans look worse than anyone could ever imagine

[12:17] }dino} i get that 3i. but in the whole scheme of things it really makes no difference to any of them if cliff hits or not. 

01[12:18] }Threei}  it's a play for 2014 now, to get back the house

[12:18] }dino} jwn hl l .20

[12:18] }thomcbell} Vad how do i emigrate to Canada?

01[12:18] }Threei}  economically no, it's purely political

[12:19] }dino} it won't work. republicans would be better off saying no

01[12:19] }Threei}  well tbell... our right of center government would look more left than your normal liberal, lol

[12:19] }thomcbell} nemo - FCX what are your thoughts now

01[12:19] }Threei}  I agree dino

[12:19] }nemo} suicide

[12:19] }thomcbell} what do u mean by that ?

[12:19] }nemo} 32ish, should go for vwap, but it's starting to follow the market

01[12:20] }Threei}  Canada is very very left country comparing to US

[12:20] }dino} tol hl l .45

[12:20] }nemo} we're all going european

01[12:20] }Threei}  you know what percent said they'd vote for Obama if they wrere eligible?

01[12:21] }Threei}  in Canada I mean

[12:21] }nemo} 80

01[12:21] }Threei}  mind-boggling 78%

[12:21] }thomcbell} ok gotcha

[12:22] }Will49} thank goodness the conservatives here are smart enough to stay in power

01[12:22] }Threei}  when you listen to our far left, your raving lunatics look like innocent rose bushes

[12:22] }Will49} true dat

01[12:23] }Threei}  and there no real conservatives in yo7ur sense of the word at all

[12:23] }nemo} they won't

01[12:24] }Threei}  who won't what?

[12:25] }Will49} conservative is a relative term here

[12:25] }nemo} we're all going left

[12:25] }Will49} Harper knows how to stay in between the other parties

01[12:25] }Threei}  for now, yes...

[12:25] }Will49} if that means a shift to the left, he'll do it

01[12:26] }Threei}  I really hope he grooms a worthy successor

[12:26] }Will49} also. cdns like to see an offset at the fed level against the provincial wingnut governments

[12:27] }Will49} yea Vad, not any good looking candidates at the moment

01[12:27] }Threei}  ask ese, and harper is a wingnut :)

[12:27] }patel} how does AVGO look short

[12:27] }thomcbell} fcx dont feel it is a long - this short covering rally has been convincinlgly sold into

01[12:28] }Threei}  .25 break, AVGO

01[12:28] }Threei}  don't count on much but it's a valid lay

[12:28] }Will49} knew a girl like that once

01[12:29] }Threei}  FCX, I'd be looking for short, tbell, I agree

01[12:29] }Threei}  forget AVGO

01[12:29] }Threei}  FCX, 70 break

[12:30] }nemo} look where the morning breakout level is

[12:39] }thomcbell} short setup slw 35.58 break if holding 35.68

[12:43] }thomcbell} slw invalidated 

[12:46] }dino} dds spike

[13:00] }dino} jwn to .53

[13:00] }patel} akam long

[13:00] }dino} tol o .69

[13:02] }dino} out tol .73, +.28

[13:09] }dino} out jwn .53, +.33

01[13:09] }Threei}  nice

[13:10] }Beau} hell of a day dino

[13:11] }dino} average, had 2 stops

[13:11] }dino} but ty

[13:12] }dino} alog lod

[13:12] }dino} swhc lod

[13:26] }scottie} ENB l .10 ?

01[13:27] }Threei}  toughie...

[13:27] }scottie} tks

01[13:27] }Threei}  not sure

[13:27] }scottie} will pass

01[13:29] }Threei}  yuck

01[13:29] }Threei}  good idea to pass

01[13:29] }Threei}  too much air underneath

[13:29] }scottie} yep tks for your help

[13:30] }dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[13:32] }dino} swhc going for gap

[13:36] }dino} hmmm, that was a poor gap fill attempt

[13:37] }patel} this is boring.....

[13:38] }dino} extremely. feels like a summer friday

[13:41] }nemo} we've been grindgin higher on a trendline in the spy since Wednesday

[13:48] }_syncc} Hey everyone, just checking in!

01[13:49] }Threei}  hi syncc

[13:49] }_syncc} How were your trades this morning?

01[13:49] }Threei}  back and forth

[13:49] }_syncc} I caught a few nice ones

[13:49] }dino} good, but markets are now dead

[13:49] }_syncc} Yesterday was better I assume.

01[13:49] }Threei}  narrowed down and slowed down greatly

01[13:50] }Threei}  unless some serious range break comes (to the downside preferrably), it's dead

[13:50] }_syncc} So Vadym, on days like this, what do you end up doing? Just on standby?

[13:50] }thomcbell} lvs looks like a 43.66 long break if holding 43.56

01[13:50] }Threei}  waiting, watching, taking those that look safe and promising

01[13:51] }Threei}  keeping my expectations low

01[13:51] }Threei}  taking scalps, trailing stops tighter

01[13:51] }Threei}  in short, making sure there is no damage

[13:51] }_syncc} Quite conservative, your emotions are definitely solid in being a trader

[13:51] }_syncc} I need to develop mine...lol

[13:53] }patel} FSLR volume

01[13:53] }Threei}  to remind, I do it for frikin 16 years :)

[13:54] }_syncc} btw, I read the instructions for this trading room. I finally understand what all those ratios mean.

[13:54] }_syncc} Hmm good point. Well I will be at that point soon enough :)

[13:55] }_syncc} I probably cannot scalp.. my commission costs are too high

[13:55] }_syncc} 9.95 a trade

[14:00] }nemo} this can't last, my charts on spy and tna are broken into .02 increments

[14:00] }nemo} Haven't seen that in a while

[14:12] }_syncc} rimm is stuck between .98 and .99 for the past 20 minutes

[14:12] }_syncc} wow is this ever slow

[14:13] }nemo} why you looking at that?

[14:13] }thomcbell} lvs 1:1

[14:13] }_syncc} Im waiting for it to break 12.00

[14:14] }_syncc} if it holds .95

[14:17] }patel} UAL looks goods

[14:18] }patel} airlines are strong 

[14:18] }patel} daily is good on UAL

[14:26] }thomcbell} fb - lol

[14:28] }thomcbell} lvs 1:2

[14:29] }thomcbell} took the trade lvs 

01[14:30] }Threei}  nice one

01[14:31] }Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .95 break

01[14:31] }Threei}  If holds  32 

[14:34] }_syncc} rimm 1:1

[14:45] }thomcbell} fcx was still valid right Vad?

01[14:45] }Threei}  yes

[14:47] }thomcbell} 1:2 target and play by the book?

01[14:47] }Threei}  totally

01[14:51] }Threei}  covered any yet?

[14:52] }scottie} yes half at .85

01[14:52] }Threei}  :)

01[14:52] }Threei}  stop is .96... routine

01[14:52] }Threei}  yawn

01[14:52] }Threei}  see syncc... it's just plain boring money making routine

01[14:53] }Threei}  another day in the office

[14:56] }_syncc} since when did money become boring?

01[14:56] }Threei}  :)

01[14:57] }Threei}  http://blog.realitytrader.com/2012/10/unbearable-boredom-of-trading.html

[14:57] }_syncc} and I was looking at some practice exams for my exam tomorrow, and missed out on selling rim at 12.05. Now back at 12.00.. great.

[14:58] }_syncc} you posted that on cara once, I recall reading it, and well, laughing:)

[14:58] }dino} gj fcx vad

[14:58] }_syncc} "You are alert"--cracks me up on days like this

01[14:58] }Threei}  ty dino

01[14:59] }Threei}  what are you doing trying to make 5 cents on RIMM...

01[14:59] }Threei}  we have almsot 20 on FCX already, with 6 -7 cents risk

[15:00] }_syncc} "dude...be sensitive" nemo, back me up.

[15:01] }_syncc} Vad, how did you even see that big of a fall on FCX?

[15:02] }scottie} out .77 +.17 tks Vad

01[15:02] }Threei}  scottie :)

01[15:02] }Threei}  syncc... I did not see anything

01[15:03] }Threei}  trading is not about seeing the future

01[15:03] }Threei}  there was a val;id setup which in terms of my trading system signalled entry

01[15:03] }Threei}  you don't predict anything, you take signals that trigger your setups

[15:04] }_syncc} still an impressive move :)

01[15:05] }Threei}  that's because setups are structured well

01[15:05] }Threei}  and lead to good plays

[15:12] }_syncc} okay out .05, +.42% for rimm

[15:14] }patel} how does

[15:14] }patel} SWHC long above 9.99 look

[15:14] }dino} amrn hl l .77

[15:16] }thomcbell} i would do 10.01

[15:17] }thomcbell} but curious to see what Vad thinks 

[15:19] }patel} didnt talk it tbell

[15:19] }patel} it could give a nice eod run

[15:19] }patel} *take

01[15:19] }Threei}  hard to tell really

[15:20] }dino} amrn stop -.04

[15:24] }nemo} this is trend on spy

[15:26] }nemo} yep indexes look long

[15:26] }dino} nxy drop

[15:28] }patel} geez been watching NXY since 24.30

[15:28] }patel} 1 dollar drop in less than a minute

[15:28] }patel} make that almost 2 dollars

[15:28] }dino} news?

[15:29] }patel} yeah

[15:29] }patel} government of canada

[15:29] }thomcbell} what is it?

[15:29] }patel} is suppose to make an annoucement after close

[15:29] }thomcbell} deal off

[15:29] }thomcbell} that was a question 

[15:29] }nemo} and here go the indexes

[15:30] }nemo} gap up monday

01[15:30] }Threei}  Nexen Inc. (USA) (CA) Industry Canada to make announcement at 17:00ET; no topic disclosed - press***NOTE: may be speculation that this will be a determination on the proposed NXY/CEO deal **Reminder: On 4th Nov: Canada govt extended the deadline for review of CNOOC $15.1B bid for Nexen to Dec 10th. On Sept 20th, shareholders approved $15.1B CNOOC acquisition valued at $27.50/shr. } - Follow up: Canada PM Harper will also make a statement after 17:15ET today

[15:31] }patel} wWhat the heck

[15:32] }patel} look at the bounce

01[15:32] }Threei}  halted in Toronto

[15:33] }dino} i don't know what to do w/it

[15:34] }nemo} bounced basically at the 200 day

[15:36] }thomcbell} long setup tivo 12.18 break if holding 12.13

[15:42] }thomcbell} look at bollinger bands on that 1 min on tivo Vad 

[15:43] }Will49} out FCX 1:2 tks Vad

[15:43] }dino} gj

[15:43] }Will49} almost an hour playing that

01[15:43] }Threei}  :)

[15:44] }Will49} tks dino

[15:44] }dino} well paid

01[15:44] }Threei}  slow money buys just as much in the store

[15:44] }dino} and played

[15:44] }Will49} yes

[15:45] }scottie} you're more patient than I am Will

[15:46] }Will49} just about burst a bladder too

[15:46] }scottie} lol

[15:47] }thomcbell} doing tivo by the book here 

[15:50] }Beau} dino do you change stops in late market open "AMRN stp .04"?  Or was it going nowhere and you scratched it?

[15:51] }dino} going nowhere so scratched it. but generally later in the day i get stingy (tighter) with stops

[15:52] }nemo} finnies and spy holding uptrend for the week, expect to se it over 143 on Monday

[15:52] }Beau} thx

[15:52] }dino} a.m. more movement, so a bit wider. for last 9 months or so, afternoons suck. strange for me because i used to make most of my $ in afternoons.

[15:53] }dino} but in general, the volume is way down from years ago. not as many traders

01[15:54] }Threei}  thank you all, have a great weekend

01[15:54] }Threei}  see you on Monday

[15:54] }thomcbell} tivo stopped - 0.05

[15:54] }Will49} great weekend everyone

[15:54] }dino} thx all for ideas. take care

[15:55] }Beau} appreciate your explaination dino  Have good weekend

[15:55] }dino} no beau, anytime

[15:55] }scottie} have a good weekend, see you monday

Dec 06 2012

One of the best days possible, with one stop and seemingly endless torrent of winning trades, one after another. Total windshield day (as in: sometimes you are a windshield, sometimes you are a bug).



Session Time: Thu Dec 06 00:00:00 2012

[08:58] {scottie} good morning
01[08:59] {Threei}  scottie :})
[09:05] {dino} gm
01[09:05] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:05] {cipher} gm
01[09:05] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:06] {patel} Good Morning Everyone... :)
01[09:06] {Threei}  patel :)
[09:07] {nemo} maybe we should call him kneecap
[09:11] {nemo} so...what's this aapl drop about, moving Macs to the US?
01[09:14] {Threei}  maybe just time?
[09:15] {nemo} lulu
[09:15] {Beau} good morning all
01[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:15] {nemo} So what is all this silliness about me being sensitive?
01[09:15] {Threei}  aren't you???
01[09:16] {Threei}  FCX another smackdown
[09:19] {Will49} Good morning
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:20] {Threei}  everyone got yesterday's e-mail with Dec-Jan outlook?
[09:20] {thomcbell} si
[09:20] {Will49} yes
[09:20] {scottie} yes
01[09:20] {Threei}  :)
[09:21] {patel} yes.
[09:21] {robbers} yep.
01[09:21] {Threei}  cool, I think we rooted out the problem that prevented some e-mail addreeses to be included
01[09:25] {Threei}  oh good... Energy dept to spend 120M on electric car battery research
[09:27] {Will49} worked at Northwest National Lab which will do this work
[09:27] {patel} think we can get FCX on a bounce play.
[09:27] {patel} lots of support at 31
[09:27] {Will49} 120M is petty cash
[09:27] {nemo} spy looks like bounce
01[09:28] {Threei}  it's nothing to resolve it, but enough to make another painful loss on top of all the solyndras and a123s
[09:28] {nemo} great call by me
01[09:28] {Threei}  and crowd out private investments
01[09:28] {Threei}  hehe nemo
01[09:28] {Threei}  let's keep FCX on a radar
[09:29] {nemo} well, it could only go two ways, I wouldn't have said anything if it dropped
01[09:29] {Threei}  not sure yet for bounce or short
[09:29] {dino} lol nemo
01[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .70 break hl
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {patel} way 2 fast for me couldnt grab any.
[09:34] {scottie} didn't get it either
01[09:34] {Threei}  it pulled back for second chance...
01[09:34] {Threei}  .72 fill
[09:35] {Will49} out at 1:1 txs Vad
01[09:35] {Threei}  :)
01[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .80 break
01[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:37] {Threei}  target 1:2
01[09:38] {Threei}  notice how FCX didn't even pause to think at 31, just went through like it was nothing
01[09:38] {Threei}  GLD 1:1
01[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .65 break hl
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:40] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:40] {Threei}  may get reestablished yet
01[09:41] {Threei}  GLD 1:2, out
[09:41] {scottie} +.18 tks Vad
01[09:41] {Threei}  yw
[09:41] {patel} thanks Vad
[09:41] {robbers} out gld, thanks.
01[09:41] {Threei}  :)
[09:42] {Will49} 1:2 tks Vad
01[09:46] {Threei} Short Setup: SWL  .80 break
01[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:46] {cipher} fran l .54
01[09:46] {Threei}  SLW
01[09:47] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:48] {robbers} gmcr
[09:49] {cipher} fran stop .-18
[09:54] {thomcbell} long setup tibx 19.85 break if holding 19.75
01[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .15 break
01[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:55] {thomcbell} im there with a half lot -
[09:55] {thomcbell} short setup FB 27.64 break if holding 27.72
[09:57] {thomcbell} fb 1:1
[09:57] {thomcbell} tibx 1:1
01[09:57] {Threei}  nice side by side plays
[09:58] {thomcbell} scalp rules on both
[09:58] {thomcbell} target is 27.46 on fb
01[09:58] {Threei}  watch FB for long from under .50, on recross
[09:58] {thomcbell} agreed
01[09:59] {Threei}  can be cute double bottom
[09:59] {thomcbell} flat FB
01[09:59] {Threei}  LVS target 1:2
[09:59] {thomcbell} 27.51
01[10:00] {Threei}  1:1
[10:00] {thomcbell} oh there is the target on FB
01[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .50 break
[10:00] {thomcbell} could get a bit nasty if low is breached
01[10:00] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:01] {dino} jwn hl l .40
01[10:01] {Threei}  LVS scalpers win
[10:01] {thomcbell} tibx 1:2
[10:01] {thomcbell} did second partial
01[10:01] {Threei}  (GR) Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden: Cannot rule out completely another Greek debt writedown
01[10:02] {Threei}  I can completely rule out that there won't be one
01[10:02] {Threei}  Invalidated  FB
[10:02] {thomcbell} tibx out 19.99
[10:03] {thomcbell} wrong tibx never got to 1:1
01[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 hl break
01[10:04] {Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:05] {Threei}  trail to .34
[10:06] {thomcbell} fio short setup 22.77 break if holding 22.90 half lot
01[10:06] {Threei}  1:1
[10:06] {thomcbell} good one Vad
01[10:06] {Threei}  :)
[10:06] {Will49} tks Vad
01[10:08] {Threei}  yw
01[10:08] {Threei}  LVS rinsed second half
[10:11] {thomcbell} fio 1:1 almost 1:2
[10:13] {thomcbell} partialled again fio 22.57
[10:13] {thomcbell} stop to 22.65
[10:13] {cipher} fran l .81
[10:13] {scottie} GGP l .10 if holds .00
[10:14] {scottie} ?
01[10:15] {Threei}  chart is right but I have this nagging suspicion that SPY is about the break down
[10:15] {scottie} tks
[10:16] {thomcbell} flat fio
01[10:16] {Threei}  nice insipration this morning, tbell
[10:16] {nemo} spy chart compressing
[10:16] {scottie} short 20 then ?
01[10:18] {Threei}  could be... if SPY loses .20, waterfall should follow
[10:18] {dino} tol hl l .31
01[10:18] {Threei}  aka cascade
[10:20] {cipher} out fran .06 +.25
[10:20] {thomcbell} tibx looking like it could break now
[10:20] {dino} out fran +.24 ty cipher
[10:20] {cipher} yw
01[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .50 break hl
01[10:21] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:21] {Threei}  aggressive for .40 break
01[10:21] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:22] {Threei}  my nagging suspicion was nagging me for a reason
[10:22] {Will49} you're obviously sensitive to nagging :)
01[10:23] {Threei}  nemo's bad influence... I wasn't this sensitive until I met him
[10:23] {thomcbell} FB feeling lower to me again
01[10:24] {Threei}  on every turn, he is like "dude, be sensitive..."
[10:24] {thomcbell} feel like this FB is going to have a big down move down to 26.60 or so
[10:24] {nemo} ?
[10:24] {thomcbell} waiting for setup
[10:25] {thomcbell} 27.32 break if holding 27.42
[10:27] {thomcbell} FB invalidated
[10:27] {thomcbell} going to continue to watch it
[10:28] {thomcbell} VAD lvs 43.50 break if holding 43.60 ?
01[10:28] {Threei}  I like it
01[10:28] {Threei}  a lot of air under
01[10:29] {Threei}  A Reuters poll earlier this year found that nearly one in four Americans and one in seven worldwide believe the world will end during their lifetime.
[10:29] {dino} "their" world
[10:31] {thomcbell} target is 43.30 on LVS
01[10:32] {Threei}  vwap 43.09
01[10:32] {Threei}  damn you nemo
01[10:33] {Threei} Short Setup: JCP  .50 break
[10:33] {thomcbell} im still gong to play FB 27.32 break with a half lot
01[10:34] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:36] {dino} gut says up
01[10:36] {Threei}  SPY?
01[10:36] {Threei}  yeah
[10:36] {thomcbell} fb invalidated
[10:37] {patel} thoguhts on LVS
[10:38] {thomcbell} 43.60 is my stop so out here
[10:39] {dino} out tol .74, +.44
01[10:39] {Threei}  JCP 1:1
[10:42] {dino} out jwn .69, +.29
[10:42] {dino} cbrl thinny looks like wants higher
01[10:43] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:43] {Threei}  near perfect morning
01[10:43] {Threei}  rinse for partial and one stop
01[10:44] {Threei}  the rest work like charm
[10:44] {patel} gj
[10:44] {patel} I didnt get in JCP
[10:44] {patel} bad executions on my part this morning.
[10:44] {Will49} hitting on all cylinders today Vad
01[10:44] {Threei}  JCP was easy...
01[10:44] {Threei}  even bounced right above trigger twice for an entry
[10:45] {patel} yeah saw that as well.
[10:45] {Will49} that the uptick rule in play?
01[10:45] {Threei}  no
01[10:45] {Threei}  uptick rule kicks in for stocks that are down over xx%
01[10:45] {Threei}  10 I think
[10:46] {Will49} I hit the bid and laser said "not on short list"
01[10:46] {Threei}  not in inventory then
[10:46] {patel} Will was that JCP
[10:46] {Will49} yes
[10:46] {patel} I have laser as well so I probably couldnt have shorted it.
01[10:46] {Threei}  must be limited inventory
01[10:47] {Threei}  so those who entered earlier exchausted supply
[10:47] {Will49} yeah, i was a tad late
[10:47] {dino} cbrl hl l ave .88
[10:47] {Will49} YOU exhausted their inventory all by yourself vad :)
01[10:48] {Threei}  lol
[10:48] {Will49} leave some for the litle guys next time :)
01[10:49] {Threei}  yeah, little nemo on my shoulders too says "dude, be sensitive"
[10:49] {dino} hardly
[10:49] {nemo} now you're just being mean
01[10:50] {Threei}  sorry
[10:50] {nemo} frickin' hytraya jopa
[10:50] {nemo} zhopa
[10:50] {nemo} whatever
01[10:50] {Threei}  lol
[10:55] {thomcbell} wow lvs bananas
[10:55] {scottie} AKAM l .30 ?
[10:57] {scottie} too fast
01[10:57] {Threei}  ummm
01[10:57] {Threei}  yes :)
[10:57] {patel} FCX 31.26 how does that sound
01[10:58] {Threei}  yes but hl
[10:58] {patel} stop
[10:58] {patel} anything better than 31.09
01[10:58] {Threei}  under .10, yes
01[10:58] {Threei}  look at it this way:
01[10:59] {Threei}  we had near-perfect morning, every trade worked as charm,
01[10:59] {Threei}  esasy money has been made,
01[10:59] {Threei}  lunch time approaching
01[10:59] {Threei}  so keep risk down now, move to hl
01[10:59] {Threei}  or to trades where speed is lower, stops are tighter
[11:00] {patel} i think break of 31.33 and this thing could fly
01[11:00] {Threei}  {FCX} are you calling me a pig?
[11:00] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 44.20 break if holding 44.30
[11:00] {dino} vra hl l .49
[11:01] {thomcbell} target is 44
[11:02] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
01[11:02] {Threei}  good one again
01[11:02] {Threei}  what did you have for breakfast today tbell?
01[11:02] {Threei}  my bet is eggs and bacon
[11:02] {Will49} tks tbell
[11:03] {thomcbell} got my 0.10 cents back from lvs - stop before
01[11:03] {Threei}  trail FCX to .14 now
01[11:04] {Threei}  LVS target hit
[11:04] {thomcbell} out lvs
01[11:04] {Threei}  wtg
01[11:05] {Threei}  smooth sailing
[11:05] {Will49} love it
[11:05] {dino} gj
01[11:05] {Threei}  I knowe why my win rate is above clouds this month - I am overcompensating for the vacation coming
01[11:06] {Threei}  what's your deal, tbell?
[11:07] {thomcbell} u need to take credit for it Sensai
01[11:07] {Threei}  gladly... I take credits even when no one gives them to me {G}
[11:07] {thomcbell} fb 27.45 break if holding 27.55 - or should we just leave this one alone
01[11:08] {Threei}  if not for little nemo on my shoulder, I would be running around with baseball bat, beating up people for credits
01[11:09] {Threei}  but his incessant nagging "be sensitive dude..."
[11:09] {scottie} TV l .80 ?
[11:09] {thomcbell} looks like aggressive entry for 27.32 break on fb
01[11:09] {Threei}  yup
01[11:10] {Threei}  hl of course
[11:10] {scottie} missed it
[11:10] {scottie} damn I'm slow this morning
[11:10] {scottie} :)
01[11:11] {Threei}  watch GLD for long on quick move to about .55-.60
[11:13] {dino} hes hl l .50
01[11:13] {Threei}  (US) House Minority Leader Pelosi: GOP Fiscal cliff offer is an 'assault' on the middle class; plan does not move the country any closer to a dea
[11:16] {thomcbell} stop to 27.49 too limit risk on FB
[11:17] {patel} is your target still 26.60?
[11:18] {thomcbell} i dont know what that move was about on lvs
[11:18] {thomcbell} gimme a break
[11:20] {thomcbell} and now the longs get scared
[11:20] {thomcbell} lol
01[11:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .60 break hl
[11:21] {patel} I will be cheering you on from the sidelines on FB.
01[11:21] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[11:21] {thomcbell} FB stop to break even
[11:22] {thomcbell} flat fb -
01[11:25] {Threei}  1:1
[11:27] {thomcbell} if u like gld then gdx long setup 45.85 break if holding 45.80
[11:27] {thomcbell} Vad
[11:28] {scottie} +.18 tks Vad
01[11:28] {Threei}  :)
[11:28] {thomcbell} im not playing the gdx
01[11:29] {Threei}  not sure about it too
01[11:29] {Threei}  chart rather feels to me like .80 break short
[11:30] {thomcbell} y could be two sided
01[11:31] {Threei}  19% Favor New Government Spending to Stimulate Economy
01[11:31] {Threei}  strangely low number
[11:33] {thomcbell} FB back near pivot
[11:34] {thomcbell} feel like we need to find setups near support and resistance levels - pretty clear on support at 26.50 but not on resistance - nemo/Dino?
[11:35] {thomcbell} slw 35.42 break if holding 35.50 - half lot
[11:38] {thomcbell} ok slw invalitated
01[11:39] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .55 break hl
01[11:39] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[11:41] {thomcbell} slw still valid
[11:41] {dino} out vra .73, +.24
01[11:41] {Threei}  wtg'
01[11:42] {Threei}  1:1
[11:42] {dino} ty, slow one
[11:42] {dino} out cbrl flat
[11:44] {Will49} tks tbell out gdx 1:1
01[11:44] {Threei}  good one again
01[11:45] {Threei}  GLD 1:2, out
[11:45] {scottie} +.19 tks Vad :)
01[11:45] {Threei}  we are unstoppable today
[11:45] {Will49} jinx......
01[11:45] {Threei}  must be patel's fault
[11:46] {robbers} Literally unSTOPpable.
[11:46] {patel} u guys are always unstoppable....
[11:46] {patel} on GLD
[11:46] {patel} i have to be a scalper on that one
[11:46] {patel} cant do much with 200 shares
[11:46] {patel} lol
[11:49] {thomcbell} covered 1/2 slw 35.33
[11:49] {patel} nice job
[11:50] {patel} missed out on that one.
[11:51] {thomcbell} lvs short setup 44 break if holding 44.11
[11:53] {dino} back in ten
01[11:58] {Threei}  GDX 1:2
[12:00] {thomcbell} covering slw 35.27
[12:02] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
[12:05] {dino} gj
[12:06] {dino} ioc drop
[12:07] {thomcbell} lvs stop to 43.99 to ensure fill
[12:09] {Beau} dino, what stops do you use with full?
[12:13] {dino} .12 fl, hl .30, sm .38
[12:13] {dino} i play more volitile stocks than most
[12:13] {Beau} thank you
[12:13] {dino} np
[12:13] {dino} just missed ioc. was at .94
[12:15] {dino} vra new low
[12:19] {thomcbell} lvs stop to 43.91
[12:19] {patel} dang thomcbell you are FIRE!!!! :D
[12:20] {nemo} Great...now I'm hearing Springsteen tunes in my head
[12:30] {_syncc} Opinions on ABX?
[12:31] {nemo} well, it's currently moving with the spy
01[12:31] {Threei}  short on .40 break
01[12:31] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[12:32] {_syncc} nice, thanks
01[12:32] {Threei}  for a day trade that is
[12:32] {_syncc} how about long?
[12:32] {_syncc} it scares me.. ahah
01[12:32] {Threei}  daily is two-sided, short on .25 - .40 zone break, or long on 34 break
01[12:33] {Threei}  for intraday trade, I wouldn't play it long
01[12:33] {Threei}  not that it can't go up,
01[12:33] {Threei}  but there isno credible setup
[12:33] {thomcbell} fcx looks like death again
[12:33] {_syncc} thanks vad!!
01[12:34] {Threei}  sure
01[12:34] {Threei}  missed most of fantastic day of trading, syncc...
01[12:34] {Threei}  one of those "can do no wrong"
[12:35] {_syncc} im Sync from caracommunity btw, just thought Id check out this chat
01[12:35] {Threei}  caused by some change in tbell diet I suspect
01[12:35] {Threei}  cool, welcome to the room
[12:35] {_syncc} Oh I know, I have been studying for my exams all day, worst timing.
[12:35] {Will49} syncc..are you north of 49th parallel?
01[12:36] {Threei}  btw, I just learned that according to native american zodiac I am an owl... there is one thing terribly wrong with this:
01[12:36] {Threei}  description, while mostly correct, starts with very misleading "cordial and inviting"
[12:36] {_syncc} Hate to be ignorant Will, but what is the 49th parallel?
01[12:36] {Threei}  http://nativeamericanencyclopedia.com/native-american-zodiac-animal-owl/
[12:36] {nemo} oh jeez...it latitude syncc
[12:36] {Will49} southern border of canada..mostly
01[12:36] {Threei}  divide between US and Canada, sync :)
[12:37] {_syncc} Im in Toronto, hows that? Quite close to Bill actually.
[12:37] {Will49} saw your Rogers Cable is signature
[12:37] {_syncc} I go to Schulich, and live 15 mins away
[12:37] {Will49} excellent school
01[12:37] {Threei}  have you attended Sept conference?
[12:37] {_syncc} horrible school
[12:38] {_syncc} my friends and I and getting our butts kicked at the moment :)
[12:38] {dino} trading?
[12:38] {_syncc} exams truly take a toll
[12:38] {thomcbell} totally bizzare FB action
01[12:39] {Threei}  no, that's business school, dino
[12:39] {dino} ahh
[12:39] {thomcbell} a big move should come out of this pattern
01[12:40] {Threei} Short Setup: QCOR  25 break hl
01[12:40] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:41] {thomcbell} lvs could correct decently if 43.78 gives
[12:41] {thomcbell} staying away for now
[12:41] {Will49} not on short list vad
01[12:41] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Congress should give President Obama the authority to raise the debt ceiling- Until the Republican side are willing to move on tax hikes, there will be no consideration of spending cuts. - Want to see a stimulus component to any budget deal (as the President's plan calls for). ***Earlier in the session, Senator McConnell (R-KY) said a permanent debt ceiling increase is not going to happen
01[12:41] {Threei}  (US) White House: 14th amendment does not proivide the President the power to ignore the debt ceiling issue
01[12:42] {Threei}  good thing will
[12:42] {dino} mw hl s .51
[12:42] {Will49} amen
[12:42] {Will49} wtf Vad..thatis dino's kind of trade
[12:43] {Will49} big spread
01[12:43] {Threei}  yeah
[12:43] {Will49} I though I was hallucinating
[12:43] {dino} you say that like its a bad thing
[12:44] {Will49} nightmare
[12:44] {Will49} see?
[12:48] {patel} Vad do you still host training on a cruise.
[12:48] {_syncc} booze cruise? :)
[12:49] {Will49} yeah Vad's last cruise was Costa Concordia
[12:49] {patel} is it every year?
01[12:50] {Threei}  cruise?
[12:50] {patel} y
01[12:50] {Threei}  never did that
[12:50] {patel} hmm
01[12:51] {Threei}  Bahamas twice but it was land
[12:51] {_syncc} just shorted ABX at .41
[12:51] {patel} back in 2009
01[12:51] {Threei}  Nassau, Freeport
01[12:51] {Threei}  2009 and 2010
[12:51] {patel} oh okay.
[12:51] {Will49} scottie...see PM
01[12:52] {Threei}  then Whistler in 2011 and Toronto 2012
[12:56] {dino} mw stop -.25
[12:57] {_syncc} small gain on ABX short, just covered it at .33
[12:57] {_syncc} not sure to do all these abbriviations, sorry if typing it out is too much to read
01[12:58] {Threei}  I think it has more potential
01[12:58] {Threei}  but things are slow
[12:59] {_syncc} impatience is my kryptonite
01[12:59] {Threei}  nothing years wouldn;t cure :)
[12:59] {_syncc} anyway im off, ill check in tomorrow as well for a bit. will read the log tonight. thanks everyone
01[12:59] {Threei}  make suere you read http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions
[12:59] {_syncc} will do!
01[12:59] {Threei}  take care syncc
01[13:01] {Threei}  see ABX dropping more
01[13:01] {Threei}  1:1
[13:02] {patel} i didnt see the abx call
01[13:02] {Threei}  12:30] {_syncc} Opinions on ABX?
01[13:02] {Threei}  [12:31] {nemo} well, it's currently moving with the spy
01[13:02] {Threei}  [12:31] {Threei} short on .40 break
01[13:02] {Threei}  [12:31] {Threei} if stays under .50
[13:03] {patel} gotcha. I wasnt not at my computer.
[13:06] {dino} ioc hl l .55 wide
[13:08] {thomcbell} lvs vulnerable but im leving it alone
[13:16] {dino} vra l .84
[13:17] {nemo} PAY
[13:17] {nemo} PAY
[13:17] {nemo} PAY
01[13:17] {Threei}  keep calm nemo
[13:17] {nemo} YAP
[13:17] {nemo} YAP
[13:17] {nemo} YAP
[13:17] {Will49} lol
01[13:18] {Threei}  (US) US Senate Republicans have filibustered the vote regarding potential power for the President on debt ceiling
01[13:18] {Threei}  those bastards
[13:18] {dino} good
[13:20] {nemo} budgets and the power to tax are in Congress
[13:20] {nemo} that would be a significant variance from the Constitution
[13:21] {Will49} POTUS is watching the Egyptian guy
01[13:22] {Threei}  clumsy and inelegant... take pages from Stalin's book if you want real dictatorship
[13:22] {nemo} Mao did a good job too
[13:22] {dino} lol will, but seems so. he wats all powers
01[13:22] {Threei}  a few waves of cleansing among party faothful, and you are good for decades
[13:23] {nemo} I like the match factory story
01[13:23] {Threei}  yeah... famous one
01[13:24] {Threei}  do I need tp retell it or everyone knows?
[13:24] {dino} vra to .02
[13:25] {dino} out .03 slip, +.19
[13:25] {Will49} tell it
[13:25] {nemo} Tell us a story...
[13:25] {dino} story time
01[13:25] {Threei}  there were a lot of complaints about quality of matches produced by about the only soviet factory that made them
01[13:26] {Threei}  when story reached Stalin, he invited factory director for a visit,
01[13:27] {Threei}  which was known as "call to a rug"
01[13:27] {Threei}  and usually promised nothing but troubles
01[13:27] {Threei}  and troubles by Stalin's measures meant jail for decades
01[13:27] {Threei}  if not sownright execution
01[13:28] {Threei}  So, director walks in his office, white and trembling,
01[13:28] {Threei}  Staling sits at his desk, reads sone papers, pays him no attention for a few minutes
[13:28] {dino} ioc stop -.22
01[13:28] {Threei}  then picks up his famous pipe, stocks it with tobacco,
01[13:29] {Threei}  takes out matches produced by this same factory
01[13:29] {Threei}  strikes one, no flame
01[13:29] {Threei}  second, third, forth
01[13:29] {Threei}  throws the bof on the floor, takes out self-made lighter and lights the pipe up,
01[13:30] {Threei}  all that with no single glance at poor guy
01[13:30] {Threei}  then dismisses him with slight jesture of hand
01[13:30] {Threei}  guy walks out almost unconscious
01[13:31] {Threei}  Literally next day, quality control on the factory exceeds wortkers in numbers
01[13:31] {Threei}  director personally checks matches
01[13:31] {Threei}  no complaints about quality since then for many many years
[13:32] {scottie} true story ?
01[13:32] {Threei}  yup
[13:32] {nemo} yep
[13:32] {nemo} lumpens are lumpens
[13:32] {nemo} lumpins
[13:32] {nemo} then there are the stories right before he died
[13:32] {nemo} spent last few days alone, supposedly
[13:32] {nemo} they could here voices through the door
[13:33] {nemo} when he was supposed to be in there alone
[13:33] {nemo} Zhukie story
01[13:33] {Threei}  the best book ever about him, http://goo.gl/xOCEl
[13:37] {thomcbell} stop is close enuf - FB short setup 27.44 break if holding 27.50
[13:38] {nemo} o.k. I'm outta here...you folks have hurt my feelings
[13:39] {dino} lol
[13:39] {Will49} hahahaha
[13:39] {Will49} Mr sensitive himself
[13:44] {thomcbell} long setup wlt 33.67 break if holding 33.57
[13:51] {thomcbell} flat fb
[13:51] {thomcbell} looks like a waste of time
01[13:52] {Threei}  (IR) US Govt reportedly to extend waivers by 6 months for India, South Korea, and Turkey regarding trade sanctions with Iran
01[13:52] {Threei}  is it a joke?
[13:54] {dino} indeed it is. classic obummer
[13:57] {dino} qcor spike, news?
01[13:58] {Threei}  not since 12:38
01[13:58] {Threei}  Citron dissing them
01[13:58] {Threei}  (again)
01[13:59] {Threei}  Facebook Said to have hired former Expedia exec to head up its travel business - travel industry blog
[14:00] {scottie} MGM l here if holds .80 ?
01[14:00] {Threei}  I'll pass...
[14:00] {scottie} ok
01[14:00] {Threei}  RIMM another round of takeover chatter
[14:11] {dino} last try ioc hl l .47
[14:14] {thomcbell} FB near moment of short term truth
[14:14] {patel} is 27.31 an entry for short
[14:14] {dino} hes to .59
01[14:15] {Threei}  I think so
[14:17] {thomcbell} oh damn FB that 0.44 entry should have not been stopped
[14:19] {thomcbell} its breaking a 2 day pattern to the downside here
[14:19] {Will49} tks tbell out at +.13
[14:19] {Will49} just scalpin'
01[14:19] {Threei}  get out FB
01[14:19] {Threei}  too vertical
[14:20] {dino} out hes .59, ave +.15
[14:20] {patel} out of FB
[14:20] {thomcbell} u mean this down move?
01[14:20] {Threei}  yes, close short
01[14:21] {Threei}  good one patel
[14:21] {patel} tks
01[14:21] {Threei}  scottie, you here?
[14:21] {patel} went in at 27.31 and partial out at 27.19 and 27.12
[14:21] {scottie} yes
[14:21] {Will49} gj patel
01[14:22] {Threei}  good... you missed some good days or hours lately, wanted to make sure :)
[14:22] {robbers} wtg
[14:22] {patel} tbell entry at .44 would have been awesome
[14:22] {scottie} I'M having a good day, tks Vad
01[14:22] {Threei}  :)
[14:23] {thomcbell} i did it and stopped it really for no reason because i got skittish
[14:23] {patel} i knew if that thing broke LOD it could go
[14:24] {dino} out ioc .72, +.23
[14:29] {dino} meli drop
[14:33] {dino} meli hl l .90
[14:43] {patel} any potential short setup 27 break
[14:43] {patel} FB
01[14:43] {Threei}  yes but take risk down a notch
01[14:43] {Threei}  hl
01[14:44] {Threei}  move becomes excessive
[14:44] {patel} I am leaving it alone.
[14:44] {patel} Chicken to do it...
01[14:44] {Threei}  doesn't mean it can't go lower but snapbacks become more vicious
[14:45] {thomcbell} yy
01[14:49] {Threei}  Actor Stephen Baldwin arrested for allegedly failing to file income tax returns in New York
01[14:56] {Threei}  now I know what insanity is... if you want to spend 6 minutes to find out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HJ54RRB7OU
01[14:57] {Threei}  FB works
[14:57] {patel} yeah
[14:57] {patel} but oh well
[14:57] {patel} better safe than sorry
01[14:59] {Threei}  from the same guy:
01[14:59] {Threei}  I am amazed at how many people still believe the deficit is a problem. Where is the problem, show me?... For what it�s worth, here�s my plan: Forget the deficit. No, wait, even better�run it up. Run it up big time, like we did in WWII, to 30% of GDP. But instead of building armaments, let�s rebuild our roads, bridges and infrastructure, provide gov�t paid healthcare to people (fire the insurance companies!), invest in education by building schools and hiring teachers (and paying them well), expand basic science and research, explore alternative energy, create new transportation systems. Let�s do all these things.
[15:00] {dino} he totally forgets about interest payments
01[15:01] {Threei}  etc, there is more but I can't stand this anymore
01[15:01] {Threei}  including famous "we owe it to ourselves so it's not a debt"
[15:02] {Will49} what a jerk!
01[15:06] {Threei}  speaking of vicious snapbacks, see FB almost 20 cents jump
[15:06] {patel} yeah
[15:07] {thomcbell} FB 27 break if holding 26.94
[15:07] {thomcbell} target 1:2
[15:10] {thomcbell} invalidated FB - could be a rinse
[15:11] {scottie} gotta go, see you all tomorrow
01[15:11] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:11] {dino} cya
[15:11] {Will49} cheers scottie
[15:24] {dino} rkus spike
[15:24] {patel} I think FB has potential to go up.
[15:30] {thomcbell} looks like coin flip on FB
[15:30] {patel} i know right
[15:31] {thomcbell} rather be long however
[15:33] {patel} GMCR keeps making new lows.
01[15:33] {Threei}  who's happy with today's trading, vote for the 111 Trades course, will ya
01[15:33] {Threei}  some weirdos overtook us
[15:33] {patel} overtook us
[15:34] {patel} ???
[15:34] {patel} vote where?
01[15:34] {Threei}  http://www.traderplanet.com/star-awards/vote/
01[15:35] {Threei}  scroll down to Trading coyurses, select 1st place for 111 Trades and click Submit
01[15:36] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/traderplanet.html
[15:36] {dino} out meli .14, +.24
[15:38] {Will49} finally, eh dino?
[15:38] {Will49} Vad...I'm happy and I voted
01[15:38] {Threei}  ty
[15:39] {Will49} second best day I've had since starting
[15:39] {robbers} Congrats!
[15:39] {dino} wtg will
[15:39] {Will49} tks guys
01[15:39] {Threei}  btw patel, in case you didn't know... as a room member you are entitled to 30 % discount for the course with coupon (edited out)
[15:39] {dino} will, yeah that meli froze in 5 cent range for 40 min
01[15:39] {Threei}  great to hear will
[15:40] {robbers} Great course, will want to make you vote for it, LOL.
[15:40] {robbers} Truly is a great course.
01[15:40] {Threei}  :)
01[15:40] {Threei}  wait till you go over Taoist Trader...
[15:41] {robbers} Just read the samples the other night, sounds interesting.
[15:41] {robbers} there's what, five or six pages to look at?
01[15:41] {Threei}  in the sample?
[15:42] {robbers} Free pages to preview before buying.
01[15:42] {Threei}  right
01[15:42] {Threei}  my absolutely best, IMO
01[15:42] {Threei}  and the least popular
01[15:42] {Threei}  because it's WORK
[15:42] {patel} I ordered a value package from you back in 2009.
[15:42] {thomcbell} it is a goodie
[15:43] {patel} is that the same thing
[15:43] {patel} it had a few books
01[15:43] {Threei}  no
01[15:43] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html
01[15:50] {Threei}  OK guys, no more trades
01[15:50] {Threei}  thank you all
01[15:50] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:50] {Will49} cheers
[15:50] {patel} take care
[15:51] {dino} thx all, decent day, some great ideas
[16:02] {thomcbell} good night
[16:02] {patel} good night

December-January Outlook

December-January Outlook: Cliff Notes by      TradeTheNews


A thumbnail sketch of the global economy portrays some genuine risk appetite building, with equity and commodity markets looking reasonably healthy, thanks to a series of stimulus measures and rescue plans that have played out over the last four years. In the latest round, both the Fed and ECB have followed through on promises for unprecedented stimulus programs, each launching its own version of unlimited quantitative easing: attending to its employment mandate the Fed will buy mortgage backed securities at an initial rate of $40B a month, while the ECB is containing sovereign spreads with its pledge to buy government bonds in the secondary market in tandem with the ESM backstop fund. Greece appears to be out of danger, and Spain has handled its bank recapitalization while quietly pondering a broader bailout. Meanwhile Japan is steering toward open ended stimulus and China appears to be ready for more targeted measures to help its economy after cutting some key rates earlier this year.

Swimming in all of this stimulus, it makes sense that markets generally floated higher this year, but a deeper look shows that the underlying global economy is still not doing well. Europe has officially re-entered recession and faces continued political uncertainties, US GDP growth continues to stagnate at a meager 2% which could be erased by the Fiscal Cliff, Japan's short growth spurt has ended, and Chinese GDP has settled at around the official growth target of 7.5% with no signs of being reinvigorated by a generational leadership change in Beijing.

The short version of the economic story for the next few months may look like a neat and tidy conclusion to a cluster of long complex political negotiations. But the full version of the story could send markets through some new gyrations as sparring political leaders scramble to finally address issues that have lingered for the last few years.

Hills and Valleys

Equity markets have been a good barometer of the level of economic uncertainty generated by the central political and economic questions being faced this year. Though many issues are still unsettled across all the major economies, there has been progress this year, and the ongoing injections of central bank stimulus and the process of stabilizing Europe has yielded some pretty healthy gains in stocks. Notably the main French and German stock indices have just hit 52-week highs as the Greece crisis has been all but resolved. The last few months have been rockier for US equity markets as Washington paused for the election results before getting on with tackling fiscal matters.

Publically traded companies are not waiting around for the politicians to get their work done. Its assumed that firms reliant on large government contracts have already been hedging their bets as they await the resolution of the automatic budget cuts required by the "sequester", adjustments that will invariably impact corporate results in the first half of 2013, no matter what the outcome in Washington.

Another consequence creating some market distortions is that nonfinancial companies sold a record $100B in bonds in November, in part to fund special dividend payouts. Corporate boards have been busy issuing a rash of special dividends ahead of tax reform that could include higher capital gains tax rates next year. So far over 100 companies have declared significant special dividends in Q4, about four times the normal rate. Other firms, most notably WalMart, are accelerating their regular quarterly dividends, making them payable in Q4 rather than in January. With the window about to close on dividend declarations for 2012, such special dividend announcements will probably accelerate in the next week. Every company sitting on a big pile of cash is seen as a candidate for an extraordinary dividend announcement. Some of the more likely names expected to go this route are Visa, Costco, and Wynn, while more speculative minds dream of Apple or Google announcing special distributions. Shareholders are also hedging their bets by selling off equity winners, especially big dividend paying stocks, which has contributed to the Q4 volatility as investors took profits.

In the New Year, it is not clear if any firms will risk the reputational hit of cutting their dividend in favor of share buybacks in response to higher tax rates making dividends a less efficient means of returning capital to shareholders, but it cannot be ruled out as a strategy for 2013. Already, in one extreme case, Oracle has taken the unprecedented step of accelerating all of its remaining fiscal '13 dividend payments into this December. Depending on the final deal in Congress, dividend tax rates could more than double from the current 15% rate, which may lead to significant outflows from the steady dividend payers that were at the heart of many investment strategies in 2012. MLP's may also end up a big loser if their favorable tax status is stripped away in the budget negotiations.

Pulled Away from the Brink

Despite good returns in the stock market, the European economy remains troubled. Double dips in Spain and the UK have spread to the core states as Europe officially entered another recession in Q3. Forecasters are expecting the recession to deepen in coming quarters before a modest recovery in 2014. The deterioration of economic growth will stir some Europeans to renew calls for a more balanced fiscal consolidation that doesn't rely too heavily on budget cuts. The leader in this cause has been the new Socialist President of France, Francois Hollande, but he has been punished for drifting away from stronger austerity measures.

In November, Moody's became the second of the big three ratings agencies to downgrade France, citing France's lack of serious fiscal consolidation efforts. Markets took the ratings cut in stride - French bond spreads barely budged - but it could present problems for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) bailout fund that relies on the ratings of Europe's strongest economies for its own bond ratings. France is Europe's second largest economy and was one of the few remaining Aaa-rated nations supporting the ESM's own Aaa rating. Moody's followed up the French sovereign action with a downgrade of the ESM and its predecessor the EFSF, which could drive up the funding costs for the mechanism that was meant to help contain widening sovereign spreads. This crack in one of the pillars holding up the Euro Zone comes as the EMU is trying to finalize bailout agreements for Greece and Cyprus, and considers one for Spain.

Greece appears to be on its way to getting the funding it needs after a year-long renegotiation of its bailout structure. The last potential stumbling block for Greece is a €10B voluntary bond buyback program that carries a 60-70% haircut. The Eurogroup will pore over the results of the buyback at a December 13 meeting, but if it fails to reach the desired targets, the Eurogroup may require a few additional conclaves to sort out Greece.

Although it is acknowledged universally that Greece was a special case with unique terms, the other program nations-namely Portugal and Ireland-have made noises about getting some concessions after the extraordinary lengths the EMU went to in order to keep Greece in the fold. Though Portugal and Ireland remain on track to return to normal market funding next year, their "bailout envy" could become a sore spot if Spain gets more favorable terms, too.

Even as Greece and Cyprus get their bailout funds, the case for a Spanish sovereign bailout has become trickier. Spain, which has accepted recapitalization funds for its banking sector, has yet to request a sovereign bailout, and expectations are that the government wants to wait until early next year before giving into the pressure to take a full bailout. This delay has already scuttled a German plan to push all three bailouts (Greece, Cyprus, Spain) through its parliament at once, and now Chancellor Merkel may have a much more difficult time getting approval of a Spanish bailout from a Bundestag weary of paying its neighbors debts. Notably the Greek bailout proposal passed through the German lower house by a wide margin, but it required the help of pro-Euro opposition parties to offset defectors from the ruling coalition. This may be a bad omen for a potential Spanish bailout that would dwarf the Greek deal in size and scope.

At the Cliff's Edge

Progress in the US has been even slower than in Europe as a year of kicking the can down the road has led to a last minute scramble to avoid the Fiscal Cliff. Washington will get a two or three week grace period after Thanksgiving to get a deal together before markets get nervous again, but the politicians have already wasted the first week on ideological posturing, summarized by Speaker Boehner saying "we have gotten nowhere." Most observers still expect the Fiscal Cliff will be avoided, but many analysts, including those at S&P, are now shifting their expectations toward an eleventh hour deal, perhaps as late as December 31. The initial sticking point in the negotiations has been that both sides are demanding the other be the first to publically declare their specific spending cut and tax raising plans.

As a starting point, the White House put forward a Democratic wish list that GOP leaders branded as "not serious," as it essentially asked Republicans to give up all of their bargaining chips. The proposal includes a one year extension of the payroll tax credit and unemployment benefits, and a permanent rolling increase in debt limit. It also asks for $1.6T in tax increases and over $50B in new stimulus spending, offset by only $400B in entitlement cuts and a one year postponement of the defense spending cuts triggered by the 'sequester'. The plan is far less generous to conservatives than the outline of last year's failed grand bargain (which involved three dollars of cuts for each new dollar of revenue), and led Republicans leaders to suggest that many Democrats are willing to go over the Fiscal Cliff.

After stewing over the White House proposal for over a week, Boehner's team announced the broad strokes of a counterproposal including $1.4T in new spending cuts, and $800B in new revenue achieved by closing tax loopholes. The White House responded that the plan does not meet the "balance test." This essentially leaves the two parties back to where they were at the start of the budget negotiations last year, with irreconcilable core demands and with no granular details from either side.

Some reports indicate that House Republicans may be more willing to negotiate than they have let on, given their concerns that they make get hung with the blame for going over the Fiscal Cliff. Yet so far the strong rhetoric continues from both sides: the Speaker has demanded that any debt ceiling agreement will involve additional concessions to reducing spending, and that a re-litigation of Obamacare should be on the table; and the President has hammered his ultimatum that the election showed the people agree that rich people should pay higher tax rates.

Since the income tax cuts can be retroactively reinstated (2013 taxes aren't collected until April 2014), the focus of the talks in Washington will likely shift toward the automatic budget cuts required by the "sequester" that were enacted to force action now when politicians were unable to reach a compromise last year. Ultimately, the most likely outcome of the talks is seen as a partial resolution of the Fiscal Cliff focused on delaying sequestration, which would have the most immediate impact on the economy, with tax reform hashed out during 2013. If a grand bargain like the one framed during the 2011 debate could actually be reached, markets would react very favorably. But with the same cast of characters in Washington currently going through the same motions as a year ago, the chances for a grand bargain this time appear slim, though they could arrive at a more modest bargain with more tax reform to come next year.

Breaking the Fall

Politics have also been at play in China, as it began its once-a-decade leadership transition by appointing Xi Jinping head of the Chinese Communist Party, as expected. His predecessor Premier Hu, who will turn over the top political post next year, gave Mr. Xi an additional vote of confidence by immediately ceding the chairmanship of the military to him, which should give the new leader a stronger hand to consolidate his power in this delicate transition period.

The shift to fresh leadership had no immediate salubrious effect on the Chinese economy: the Shanghai Composite added to its dismal performance for the year by losing another 4% in the month of November and economic growth appears to be puttering along near the target rate of 7.5% as no new stimulus efforts have emerged from the government. Mr. Xi's government may have learned a lesson from the huge spending program launched in response to the 2008 global crisis, which ended up stoking inflation and led to wasteful spending on unnecessary construction projects. Analysts anticipate that the new leadership will proceed cautiously, favoring smaller targeted stimulus efforts over massive investments. For example, in late November central economic planners approved $12B of transportation projects, creating sales opportunities for Chinese rail firms. This fine-tuning strategy will likely lead to a gradual recovery for China rather than a sharp rebound.

The news from China isn't all bad, however, as some signs of stabilization are cropping up. After contracting for a solid year, November manufacturing PMI readings for China hit multi-month highs and showed a return to expansion (a reading above 50 on the PMI scale), with notable improvement in new orders. Copper prices are another indicator that the Chinese economy may have bottomed out. A vigorous rebound in copper prices in recent weeks could be indicating that China is stockpiling the industrial metal for new building projects.

Sometimes overlooked in China's growing shadow, Japan's economic situation is also being tested lately. After some post-tsunami reconstruction related growth over the last few quarters, the Japanese economy has seen some signs of a slowdown lately. The preliminary Q3 GDP reading showed its first contraction in five quarters and it will post the finalized reading on December 9. Industrial production figures have also been flagging in recent months, though there was a surprise upturn in the initial October reading. The Bank of Japan has cut its economic assessment, stating the pick-up in the economy has paused and predicting that the domestic economy will level off for a while before returning to mild recovery. To ensure the economy doesn't slip further the BOJ has been expanding its asset purchase program, which now stands at ¥80T, and has indicated it can do more to offset weak exports to its struggling trading partners.

A major difficulty in resetting the Japanese economy to a growth path has been the constant churn in government leadership. The country has gone through six leaders in as many years, and the current PM, Mr. Noda, has called a snap election for December 16, eight months before it was required. The policies of Noda's DPJ have not found popular support and his party has fallen to third place in the polls. Though Noda and his opponents are both calling for a more activist BOJ, they have notable policy differences, particularly on Japanese militarism. The opposition LDP led by Shinzo Abe is polling in first place but may not be able to seize a clear majority in a polity that has become more factious in the last decade. Thus the LDP may have to throw in with the upstart nationalist Japan Restoration Party which is now running second in the polls. This would push the LDP, which is already running on the principles of greater national security and collective self-defense even further to the right, ratcheting up Sino-Japan tensions that are already at their worst level in years. An LDP/Restoration Party coalition would also give Restoration Party leader Shintaro Ishihara an opportunity to run for the PM spot against Abe, and on the outside chance Ishihara won, the People's Republic would react badly.

If elected to the top spot, Abe has pledged to take bold action to get Japan out of its two-decade funk and avert the threat of deflation. His plan includes pushing the central bank toward setting a 2 or 3% inflation target driven by unlimited monetary easing, and to compel the BOJ to purchase government construction bonds used to fund public works programs. Such radical ideas may win over a public that has been aching for a cure for Japan's long economic malaise, though other such efforts have failed to snap the country out of it in years past.

Staring into the Abyss

Ever since the Fed described economic models of the consequences of a bank collapse in 2008 that frightened Congress into passing the emergency TARP fund, central bankers around the world have been staring into the abyss. They staved off a great depression with trillions of dollars in stimulus that has only just begun to yield tenuous economic stability after four years. As the BOJ heads toward open ended stimulus, the Fed is preparing to make the first adjustment in its own unlimited quantitative easing program.

The Fed has been running its flexible QE3 program for a couple of months at the initial rate of $40B/month in MBS purchases, but the first course correction will have to come in December. At that time the Operation Twist maturity extension program will have run its course, taking $45B in monthly purchases of longer dated treasuries out of the equation. If Twist was left to expire with no replacement, it would be seen as a rollback of some fiscal accommodation, so the Fed is expected to expand the open ended QE3 program with a similar monthly purchase of treasuries in addition to the $40B in MBS. The natural time frame for this announcement would be the December FOMC meeting (Dec. 11-12) which is the next one that includes a press conference and economic revisions. Alternatively, the Fed could further extend Twist for another six months or a year. Any deviation from providing a full replacement for Twist would be a shock to the markets.

Once the flexible nature of the QE3 program is tested and put into action in January, the FOMC meetings will become more about the communication policy than ever. With an eye toward the eventual withdrawal of stimulus, a refined communication strategy will be key, and the Fed is moving steadily toward replacing the calendar based guidance with forward guidance based on economic outcomes. Multiple Fed governors and Presidents have already indicated that they would like to see some economic triggers for rate policy, particularly an employment threshold that could signal the start of the unwinding of accommodation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, for example, has suggested that the central bank should maintain near-zero rates until unemployment falls to 6.5% and as long as inflation stays below 2.5%. The FOMC minutes and public speeches show there is still significant debate over what those targets should be, so it appears the Fed will not be ready to roll out the new forward guidance format at the December meeting. The next two meetings after that will be in late January (Jan 29-30) and then in March, which will include a quarterly press conference.

Another consideration for 2013 will be the make-up of the FOMC voting membership. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who has been a consistent dissenter this year, will rotate out of the voting membership and be replaced by a slightly more dovish slate of Fed Presidents. The most hawkish voice on the FOMC in 2013 will be St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who, unlike Lacker, is not likely to dissent against QE3 now that it is in place, though he did not initially support it on concerns it may trigger premature inflation. Bullard has shown he will instead question the details of the doves' plans. In his most recent statements, Bullard suggested the thresholds for rate policy changes should be based on payroll growth rather than unemployment, and that $25B in QE3 treasury purchases per month would be equivalent to the Twist operations (which involve both $45B in buying and $38B in selling operations), about half of what the Fed doves are proposing.

The Abyss Stares Back

The central bank stimulus programs have bought some time for fiscal authorities to get their budgets in order, which is still a work in progress in Europe and especially the US. All the stimulus money poured into the effort has yielded middling results, with data still mixed.

The US housing market, which was improving even before the launch of QE3, got another shot in the arm from the Fed returning to MBS purchases. Demand for homes in the US has climbed while supply remains tight, and home prices have risen for six consecutive months. This could create a wealth effect for some homeowners who have been waiting for price appreciation to return, and also benefit homeowners who have been underwater on their mortgages. Given the healing going on in the housing market, its not entirely surprising to see US consumer confidence at a 4 year high.

Industrial data have been more mixed lately. Improvements in durable goods orders indicate that so far companies are not completely hunkered down on Fiscal Cliff worries. The November ISM manufacturing reading was very concerning, however, as it fell into contraction and hit its worst level in over two years. In fact, the last time this index hit this level, unemployment was above 9%.

Unemployment crept below 8% in the last two monthly readings, which in part helped propel President Obama to a second term, but concerns about the Fiscal Cliff and temporary impacts from Hurricane Sandy may cause the jobless rate to head north again. The next employment report, due out on December 7, will reflect the temporary layoffs caused by the "superstorm," whose impact was already measured in the poor November same store sales posted by chain retailers. Temporary factors can only be blamed for so long before elevated unemployment will start eroding confidence readings again.

In Europe, the economy faces record high unemployment rates. The worst of it is in the peripheral nations where joblessness is as high as 25%, but the core nations have their problems too, with France unemployment above 10%, its worst level in over a decade. European industrial production readings also continue to be dismal, exhibiting contraction for much of 2012. Even the strongest of the Euro Zone economies, Germany, is starting to feel the ill effects of the debt crisis. German PMI manufacturing has experienced nine straight months of contraction, with exports hurt by persistent strength in the euro, and confidence readings are also running low.

The Arab Cliff

Uncertainty is also rampant in the Middle East. Crude oil prices experienced more volatility in late November as Israel's conflict with Hamas flared up, and some Arab league nations called for using oil as a weapon against Israel. If the tentative ceasefire is broken, oil supplies could be pinched. This may be a hot topic for OPEC delegates holding their semi-annual meeting in Vienna on December 12, especially if Israel's skirmish with Hamas was only a prelude to action against their sponsors in Iran.

The escalating Syrian civil war and the renewed mass protests in Egypt also bear close attention. Europe appears to be growing more inclined to intervene in Syria as the humanitarian crisis grows and NATO ally Turkey expresses deep concerns about the conflict spilling over its border or emboldening Kurdish rebels to escalate their own efforts for sovereignty. The latest US statement on Syria declared that the Assad regime unleashing chemical weapons on its people would be a "red line" though the State Department declined to detail what response it would trigger. Meanwhile a return to chaotic street protests in Cairo could upset oil markets and raise concerns about the security of the key Suez shipping lane as it did during the outset of the Arab Spring.

Another wildcard to be considered in the region is the failing health of the Saudi ruler King Abdullah. The King, now 88, was reportedly placed on life support for some time after undergoing spinal surgery in November. In the event of his death, Crown Prince Salman, 76, will assume the throne, and could possibly be the last son of the founder of the modern kingdom to do so. After Salman, who replaced two of his brothers who died of old age in the crown price post, the third generation of princes may be called upon to rule. Either of these transitions could be the spark that finally brings the Arab Spring to Saudi Arabia, potentially destabilizing the world's biggest oil exporter.

The Short Version

As the US economy stagnates in the grip of uncertainty about fiscal policy and Europe slips back into recession as it tries to balance its own policy, emerging markets are sputtering along waiting for their trading partners to recover. Still, after four difficult years, global markets are leaning toward a recovery bias supported by massive accommodation.

If Greece and Cyprus can be squared away this month, Europe may experience a brief period of equanimity, and the ECB will be dormant until the Spanish sovereign issue comes to a head. Other difficult matters are still looming in the background for Europe, including the deadlock on the EU budget and the implementation of banking supervision and capitalization rules that have been punted to next year.

In Washington , the long awaited election left the status quo. Congressional leaders and the President don't want to throttle a nascent recovery, but the question is just how they will go about defusing the Fiscal Cliff bomb. If a bargain is not struck until the final days of December, markets might not wait to react negatively. Markets may also frown upon another "kick the can" solution, which contributed to the S&P sovereign downgrade last year. The framework of any deal also has to be firm enough to preclude Congress from dismantling or weakening the deal in the years ahead (Boehner is said to have proposed such a binding legal framework).

With US treasuries and German bunds running near record low yields, the "cleanest dirty shirts" aren't as attractive as they were earlier this year. As Europe copes with its problems, investors are warming to peripheral sovereign debt, helping to narrow sovereign spreads in Italy and Spain to their best level in two years. With stocks cheap by comparison, US and European bourses have notched solid gains, and the Chinese stock market may get some renewed attention next year as investors recalibrate for slower but still enviable growth.

Forex markets will be keyed in on the post-Greece bailout euro and the post-election yen. If the Greek debt buyback goes off without a hitch, current market short positioning in the EUR suggests it could follow its typical strengthening pattern in December, a month during which the euro has averaged over 1.7% in gains against the dollar in the last 12 years. The 1.3170 area is the critical resistance in the EUR/USD during the month. The yen has already weakened 3.5% since LDP opposition leader Abe stated that, if elected PM, he would force the BOJ into aggressive monetary easing. On a technical basis the upside for the USD/JPY has upside legs as long as 80.30/70 area holds, and analysts suggest any sustained break of the 85 level opens the door for momentum to carry the pair to 92 by early 2014 shepherded by more open handed monetary policy.

Headed into year end, if the global economy manages to stay perched on the cliff where its situated, it will have a good vantage point for the climb back up the peak from which it slid. In short, year five of the global crisis may be waypoint on the trek back toward more normal market conditions. Just don't look down.





 TradeTheNews

Dec 5 2012

Another fine day with solid profit, not much happening broad picture wise.

Session Time: Wed Dec 05 00:00:00 2012

[09:06] {dino} gm

01[09:06] {Threei}  FCX

01[09:06] {Threei}  acquired MMR for 20B

[09:07] {dino} mmr oil?

01[09:07] {Threei}  yeah

01[09:07] {Threei}  FCX returns to its roots

01[09:08] {Threei}  started out as energy

[09:08] {thomcbell} yes and PXP

[09:09] {thomcbell} huge acquisition for FCX

[09:09] {thomcbell} size wise 

[09:09] {cipher} gm

01[09:09] {Threei}  cipher :)

01[09:10] {Threei}  rofl, phrase right from nemo's skull:

01[09:10] {Threei}  My idea of "help from above" is a sniper from the roof

[09:10] {ese} morning..........

[09:10] {ese} fcx

01[09:10] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:11] {nemo} channeling me, are you?

01[09:13] {Threei}  here is who does, nemo: http://goo.gl/S6wd2

01[09:18] {Threei}  come on, don't tell me you didn't feel like you could have written this

[09:19] {nemo} yeah...saw that 25 years ago

01[09:20] {Threei}  cranky this morning, aren't we

[09:20] {nemo} not at all, just stating a fact

01[09:21] {Threei}  you should've added "saw that on Facebook 25 years ago"

[09:21] {nemo} ?

[09:21] {Will49} gm

[09:21] {nemo} put the bottle down Vad!

01[09:21] {Threei}  will :)

01[09:22] {Threei}  sigh... never mind

01[09:22] {Threei}  my sense of humor is not from not for this planet

01[09:22] {Threei}  fortunately, I don't give a flying sternutation

[09:23] {Will49} FCX?

01[09:24] {Threei}  bought MMR

[09:24] {Will49} not suggesting a trade, just curious

[09:24] {Will49} ahhhh

01[09:24] {Threei}  will be at some point, just not at the open

[09:26] {Beau} good morning

[09:26] {robbers} Ese, I sent you a PM via DCC....

01[09:26] {Threei}  beau :)

01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .75 break

01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .85 

01[09:32] {Threei}  no worky

[09:32] {ese} hey robbers......were do i find the dcc...its not showing up on the top of my screen

[09:32] {robbers} in the window to the left.

01[09:33] {Threei}  rinse

01[09:33] {Threei}  grrr

[09:34] {cipher} SCSS L .75

[09:34] {ese} L fcx .48 sm

01[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .20 break

01[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

01[09:35] {Threei}  target 1:2

01[09:36] {Threei}  1:1

01[09:36] {Threei}  1:2, out

[09:37] {cipher} out scss flat

[09:37] {Will49} tks Vad +.16

01[09:37] {Threei}  :)

[09:38] {cipher} scss l .30

[09:39] {patel} thanks Vad on GDX :)

01[09:39] {Threei}  yw

[09:39] {patel} FB is making me want to puke....

[09:40] {thomcbell} FB at pivot 

01[09:40] {Threei}  scare blue, ese got profitable one on FCX despite late entry

01[09:40] {Threei}  FB, I just hate this kind of things

[09:40] {nemo} should get to 33ish

01[09:40] {Threei}  got it right, got rinsed by couple cents

[09:40] {patel} i know

01[09:41] {Threei}  aside of profit/loss considerations, this kind makes you question your discipline

01[09:41] {Threei}  next time you get tempted to blow your stop

01[09:41] {Threei}  and it works

01[09:41] {Threei}  and you start blowing them every time

[09:41] {patel} i agree

01[09:41] {Threei}  and then that one comes and destroys your account

[09:42] {cipher} out scss -.12

01[09:42] {Threei}  so... discipline tramps conviction

01[09:42] {Threei}  trumps?

[09:44] {ese} wasn't a late entry..........got filled .25 higher than when i tried to get in.......stock is swampted

01[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break

01[09:44] {Threei}  wow... are you using market orderd???

[09:44] {ese} i'm up .40 now..........dino would be proud

[09:45] {ese} was up .40

[09:45] {dino} i am

01[09:45] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): It is hard to conduct rational negotiations with many Republican members

01[09:45] {Threei}  I am sure

[09:46] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.91 break if holding 46

[09:46] {ese} stop .00

01[09:47] {Threei}  seriously ese... market order on a hot stock at the open is a form of financial suicide

[09:47] {thomcbell} target is 45.50 for me 

[09:47] {ese} stopped .99

[09:47] {dino} but ese i never use market orders

[09:47] {thomcbell} small position 

[09:47] {ese} +.51

[09:47] {dino} gj

01[09:47] {Threei}  wtg but I am concerned

[09:47] {ese} ya 400shs

[09:47] {patel} target on SLW

01[09:48] {Threei}  not sure

01[09:48] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .86 for now

[09:48] {thomcbell} wow aapl is a mess again

[09:48] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1

01[09:48] {Threei}  it feels like possible plunger to me...

01[09:49] {Threei}  let's try for 1:3

01[09:49] {Threei}  good one on LVS tbell

[09:49] {ese} it wasn't that much of a gamble.......with that news this thing was always goin up

01[09:49] {Threei}  1:1

01[09:49] {Threei}  ese, trade iotself, maybe - but market order?

01[09:50] {Threei}  25 cents slippage

01[09:50] {Threei}  yikes

[09:50] {dino} well, risk is our business

[09:50] {robbers} out slw, thanks.

01[09:50] {Threei}  1:2

01[09:51] {Threei}  yw

[09:51] {ese} ya true.......am not disagreeing with you........on some other news or stock.......would be no where near it

[09:51] {ese} was prepared to exit quick.........had the stop in imediately

[09:52] {Will49} slw 1:2 out tks Vad

01[09:52] {Threei}  well, question is, how much were you prepared to chase from your intended entry?

01[09:52] {Threei}  yw will

01[09:52] {Threei}  was it really 25 cents?

[09:53] {dino} 07 red

[09:53] {thomcbell} lvs 1:2

01[09:53] {Threei}  if less, why not limit order at the price to which you are willing to chase?

[09:53] {ese} hmmmmmmm ya good thought

01[09:53] {Threei}  SLW 1:3, out

01[09:53] {Threei}  say, your l,imit of tolerance is 10 cvents of chasing,

01[09:53] {Threei}  stock trades at .25,

[09:54] {patel} thanks vad :)

01[09:54] {Threei}  you hit it with limit buy order .35

01[09:54] {Threei}  yw

01[09:54] {Threei}  it will swipe best available prices all the way from .25 to .35

01[09:54] {Threei}  but it won't chase higher

[09:54] {patel} I been away from trading for little over 3 years now. I visited your website once a week for the past 3 years. 

01[09:55] {Threei}  with market order at the open you are asking for a fill at the top of the spike

[09:55] {patel} Finally, I wanted to try trading and work a full time job. 

[09:55] {robbers} Welcome back!

01[09:55] {Threei}  cool beans patel, so far it works :)

[09:56] {dino} gl patel

[09:56] {patel} thanks

[09:56] {Will49} yes good luck

[09:56] {thomcbell} lvs 1:3

[09:56] {patel} I been in the chat before. 

[09:56] {patel} back in 2009

[09:56] {dino} the jungle is enticing

01[09:56] {Threei}  I knew the nick was familiar

01[09:57] {Threei}  my memory doesn't really go much more than 20 min back though

[09:57] {patel} haha

[09:57] {patel} yeah i was shocked

[09:57] {patel} when u gave me the same nickname and password. 

01[09:57] {Threei}  not me

[09:57] {Will49} that's cause you're a human bean Vad

01[09:57] {Threei}  system

01[09:57] {Threei}  lol will

01[09:57] {Threei}  if you in database, it does it automatically

01[09:58] {Threei}  big brother wathcing... rememering you... tracking you down... and salp;ping you with the same nick

[09:58] {thomcbell} flat lvs 45.55

01[09:58] {Threei}  beaituful trade tbell

01[09:59] {Threei}  hit your target exactly

[09:59] {thomcbell} tu - 2x

[09:59] {thomcbell} for teaching #1

01[09:59] {Threei}  09:47] {thomcbell} target is 45.50 for me

[10:00] {dino} mfrm hl l .65

[10:00] {nemo} numbers?

01[10:00] {Threei}  good

01[10:00] {Threei}  both

01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT FACTORY ORDERS: 0.8% V 0.0%E

01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 54.7 V 53.5E

01[10:04] {Threei}  wow... selling into good numbers

01[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break hl

[10:04] {ese} gotta go all........it's my Christmas Fina Arts Night concert tonight.......will and vad starts at 7:pm at Vic High.......robbers still couln't find find that dcc....don't have a colmn on the left with  Mibbit.com

01[10:05] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

01[10:05] {Threei}  take care ese

01[10:07] {Threei}  1:1

[10:13] {dino} mfrm to b/e

[10:14] {dino} stopped

[10:16] {thomcbell} FCX feels like 33 break if holding 33.14 1/2 lot 

01[10:18] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner: We made a good-faith offer to President Obama, now we need a reply from the White House

[10:18] {dino} hov .01 trig l

[10:19] {thomcbell} 1:1 fcx 

01[10:19] {Threei}  nice

[10:22] {thomcbell} stop to 32.91 on fcx 

[10:22] {thomcbell} due to vol

[10:24] {thomcbell} darn fcx

[10:27] {dino} bidu sm l .01 stop lod

01[10:30] {Threei}  - Reiterates that raising revenue via closing tax loopholes is acceptible, raising taxes is not. - House Majority Leader Cantor (R-VA): The House Republicans have not sat down and spoken with the President about specifics

[10:31] {dino} bidu stop -.36

[10:33] {dino} rinsed

[10:41] {dino} ndx blood

[10:47] {dino} gco hl l .2999

01[10:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break

01[10:53] {Threei}  If holds  .80 

01[10:55] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break

01[10:55] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

01[10:56] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .84

01[10:56] {Threei}  target 1:3

01[10:58] {Threei}  no go SLW

[10:59] {thomcbell} was there some sort of data point on aapl?  this is unreal

01[10:59] {Threei}  not that I know of

01[11:00] {Threei}  1:1 FCX

01[11:00] {Threei}  wow

01[11:00] {Threei}  (US) Pentagon discloses that it has been informed by the budget office to start planning for the automatic sequester cuts - financial press- Pentagon highlights that had not been told to plan for cuts earlier

01[11:00] {Threei}  unlesds it's a bullying trick, they really prepare for the cliff possibility

[11:03] {patel} so once you get your 1:1 on half

[11:03] {patel} do u set the stop to b/e

01[11:04] {Threei}  just under

01[11:04] {Threei}  .89

[11:04] {patel} okay

01[11:04] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions

[11:05] {patel} thats what I thought just wanted to make sure. 

[11:05] {patel} thanks

[11:20] {dino} dds drop

01[11:24] {Threei}  (US) President Obama: Housing is coming back and US consumer confidence is high - address to business roundtable- Economy worldwide remains soft; Europe likely to be weak for some time - "Rooting" for US businesses to succeed - White House Budget proposal reflected a balanced and responsible approach; prepared to make difficult spending decisions, but we "can't cut our way to prosperity." - "we can probably resolve this in about a week, its not that complicated." The hold up right now is that Speaker Boehner has taken a stance against tax rate increases for the wealthy. Closing loopholes is just not enough. - It is bad strategy to put off addressing the debt ceiling until next year; I will 'not play that game' if Congress wants to push the country closer to default by negotiating with the debt ceiling. }- There is time to deal with tax reform next year.

01[11:25] {Threei}  we "can't cut our way to prosperity." {--- but we can spend our way to prosperity?

01[11:25] {Threei}  sigh

[11:51] {dino} scss hl l .99

[12:01] {thomcbell} any clue what that was all about?

01[12:02] {Threei}  ?

[12:02] {thomcbell} this last push higher

[12:02] {dino} ?

[12:03] {thomcbell} disregard

[12:03] {thomcbell} pretty explosive move that continues here

[12:06] {nemo} this is the start of the santa clause rally

[12:08] {dino} its the "we can probably resolve this..."

[12:08] {nemo} spy going for the 50 sma at 142.25ish

01[12:10] {Threei}  exactly dino

01[12:10] {Threei}  next talking head comes out and says "we are nowhere close" and rally evaporates in a blink of eye

[12:10] {dino} god has spoken

[12:16] {dino} uthr hl l .50

[12:19] {dino} wdc spike

[12:21] {dino} scss stop -.07

[12:23] {dino} out uthr .74, +.24

[12:28] {dino} wdc hl s .80 stop .01

01[12:28] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  164 break hl

01[12:28] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[12:32] {nemo} europe closed flat

[12:33] {nemo} this should be the run to the 50 if it breaks 142 and holds above

[12:36] {dino} cov wdc .50, +.30

[12:36] {Will49} sorry Vad, just stepped away for a few minutes...was GLD invalidated?

01[12:36] {Threei}  yeah

[12:37] {Will49} kind of obvious eh?

[12:37] {nemo} you're not getting spy capitulation volume up here

[12:39] {dino} out gco .02, +.67

[12:41] {thomcbell} GCO molto bene signori

[12:41] {dino} ty

[12:44] {Beau} patience personified, dino

01[12:46] {Threei}  let's keep an eye on GLD again

01[12:46] {Threei}  same idea

01[12:47] {Threei}  after all, VWAP is 163.78 {G}

[12:48] {dino} lol

[12:48] {Will49} zing...

[12:49] {Will49} not a symbol

[12:49] {dino} bazinga

[12:49] {Will49} only a symbol of Vad's humour

[12:49] {Will49} or "humor" for the rest of you

[12:51] {nemo} oh, just checked, 50 was at .05, that, may be the top

01[13:01] {Threei}  so, in theory GLD should give us 1:2 before finding support?

[13:02] {dino} it should search out that vwap

[13:02] {dino} they are like magnets

01[13:02] {Threei}  trying to compare it to my chart read

01[13:02] {Threei}  I'd go for 1:3

01[13:02] {Threei}  VWAP says 1:2

[13:05] {patel} VWAP a symbol

01[13:06] {Threei}  indicator

[13:06] {patel} ok

[13:06] {nemo} it stands for Vad's Warped Attitude and P.,..

01[13:06] {Threei}  hmmm

[13:06] {patel} volime weighted avg pr

01[13:06] {Threei}  and P?

[13:06] {nemo} couldn't come up with anything quick and witty

[13:06] {nemo} gives us something to work on though

01[13:07] {Threei}  no kidding

[13:09] {dino} vads weight adds pounds

01[13:09] {Threei}  that's so... cruel... and untrue... sniff sniff

[13:10] {dino} :)

01[13:10] {Threei}  any more weight loss, I could hide behind 2-years old birch tree

[13:10] {dino} hmmmm

[13:10] {nemo} 2 year old obese birch tree?

01[13:11] {Threei}  ok... behind broom if nemo girlfriend dismounted it

[13:11] {nemo} that would be a compliment...you forget my background

01[13:11] {Threei}  but I wanted to compliment you

01[13:11] {Threei}  how else can I hurt you?

[13:12] {Will49} you're fom the broomstick girls area nemo

[13:12] {Will49} from

[13:12] {Will49} the ones they used to burn

[13:13] {nemo} I'm outta here have a nice day

01[13:15] {Threei}  huh

01[13:15] {Threei}  did we manage to insult him successfully?

[13:15] {Will49} looks like

01[13:16] {Threei}  can't be

[13:16] {Will49} t was the girlfriend thing

01[13:16] {Threei}  no one ever achieved that

[13:16] {Will49} we know his hot button now

[13:17] {dino} orly hl l .17

01[13:21] {Threei}  die already GLD

01[13:22] {Threei}  sheesh

[13:22] {dino} wdchl s .65

[13:22] {patel} looking for 1:2 to 1:3 on GLD right

01[13:22] {Threei}  yes

01[13:33] {Threei}  (US) Republican Congressional Aide: There have been no staff level fiscal cliff discussions between Congress and the White House in the last 24 hours- There are no plans for talks today

[13:35] {dino} jwn drop

[13:35] {dino} hl l .40

[13:35] {dino} orly stop -.15

[13:38] {thomcbell} big move there on rimm

[13:40] {dino} jwn stop -.30

01[13:41] {Threei}  1:1

[13:43] {dino} jwn, another rinse, that makes 3 today

01[13:47] {Threei}  ok, made up my mind, will try for 1:3

[13:47] {cc_8} Honeywell Turbo Tech to Provide for China's Leading SUV, Pickup ManufacturerPosted on: Wednesday, December 5, 2012 - 1:11pmHoneywell's (NYSE: HON) Turbo Technologies will provide its diesel VNT technology to Great Wall Motors, China's leading SUV and pickup manufacturer.

01[13:48] {Threei}  LOL, twitter: Huffington approach to business news: Business is bad. Taxes are good. Elizabeth Warren was sent by God. God does not exist.�

[13:57] {dino} jwn hl l .07

[13:58] {dino} wdc to .41

[14:00] {dino} cover wdc .37, +.27

01[14:03] {Threei}  scalpers win

[14:11] {dino} oeh spike

[14:12] {thomcbell} long setup FB 27.46 break if holding 27.36 

[14:16] {thomcbell} short setup rimm 11.88 break if holding 12 - unsure if a borrow avail

[14:19] {thomcbell} Vad the larger pattern is interesting me on FB - 0.46 wicks and intraday downtrend line about the same level 

01[14:23] {Threei}  you looking at 1 min?

01[14:23] {Threei}  I mesan, where are wicks?

[14:24] {dino} on candles

01[14:24] {Threei}  lol

[14:24] {thomcbell} 10 min on top of 1 min is what i look at on all the suspects

[14:24] {thomcbell} FB 1:1

[14:25] {thomcbell} kind of

01[14:25] {Threei}  yup

[14:25] {thomcbell} rimm invalidated - never triggered

[14:25] {patel} nice job on FB 

[14:26] {thomcbell} tu

[14:29] {thomcbell} vad take a look at Rimm - i think there will be a short trade somewhere in here

[14:30] {dino} its available

01[14:30] {Threei}  12 break...

01[14:30] {Threei}  could be

01[14:30] {Threei}  wait for bounce back

01[14:30] {Threei}  don't chase

[14:30] {dino} out jwn .50, +.43

[14:30] {thomcbell} nice one Dino

[14:31] {dino} thx

[14:35] {thomcbell} ive done nothing here on rimm FYI

01[14:36] {Threei}  well, it can be double top

01[14:36] {Threei}  so, break of 12 is a short setup

01[14:36] {Threei}  if no new high

[14:36] {patel} 6 cents risk

[14:39] {thomcbell} FB stop to 27.53 

[14:46] {thomcbell} FB 1:2

[14:48] {thomcbell} FB stop to 27.63 on balance 

[14:48] {thomcbell} FB 1:3

[14:48] {dino} gj

[14:48] {thomcbell} made another sale

01[14:48] {Threei}  beautiful

[14:49] {Will49} congrats

[14:49] {patel} fabulous :)

[14:49] {thomcbell} 1:4 and out

[14:49] {Will49} wowee

[14:52] {dino} nice

[14:55] {thomcbell} tu

[14:57] {thomcbell} tibx long setup 19.90 break if holding 19.80 

[15:11] {thomcbell} tibx 1:1

[15:12] {Will49} you're on fire today tbell

[15:12] {dino} out tibx .03, +.12 ty tbell

01[15:12] {Threei}  killer plays

[15:12] {patel} good job on TIBX.

[15:13] {patel} I put a buy stop order 

[15:13] {patel} it never filled. 

[15:13] {dino} jwn l .70

[15:13] {patel} 19.91 with a stop price of 19.92

[15:13] {thomcbell} duh 

[15:13] {thomcbell} that stinks 

[15:14] {patel} yeah

[15:14] {patel} anyone use Laser

01[15:14] {Threei}  yes

[15:14] {dino} how dud that not fill?

[15:14] {dino} did

01[15:14] {Threei}  but I prefer manual executions

[15:14] {patel} no idea. 

[15:15] {patel} I just started with Laser

[15:15] {patel} so this was the 1st time I set that type of order up 

[15:15] {patel} normally I do manual executions

[15:16] {dino} odd

[15:17] {patel} does anyone else use buy stop in this room?

[15:17] {dino} i do a lot

[15:17] {dino} ese does too

[15:17] {patel} how many cents above the break do u typically go out. 

[15:18] {dino} .01, usually fills there or cent or 2 higher

[15:18] {dino} thicky like tibx right on it

[15:19] {patel} it jumped pretty quickly from 19.91 to 19.94

[15:19] {Will49} so you use OMS on laser to do that dino?

[15:19] {dino} i'm not laser

[15:19] {Will49} ah

[15:20] {patel} yeah

[15:20] {patel} I use OMS

[15:20] {Will49} been burned a few times putting hard stop on with laser

[15:20] {patel} BIDU just took out yesterday's lows

[15:20] {Will49} only use it when forced to leave the room

[15:20] {patel} yeaH

[15:21] {patel} I wont use OMS in the future. 

[15:21] {Will49} like getting a UPS shipment this morning

[15:21] {dino} i use hard stops about 70% of time

[15:21] {Will49} interesting

[15:21] {dino} on gappers i cannot, suicide

[15:22] {dino} disca spike

[15:24] {dino} news?

01[15:24] {Threei}  not that I see

[15:25] {dino} nor i

[15:25] {dino} sm s .00 break

[15:26] {thomcbell} going to still watch this tibx for another play 

[15:31] {dino} disca bstop to .80

[15:31] {thomcbell} that could be the handle there in tibx Vad

[15:32] {dino} to .72

[15:32] {dino} cov disca .72, +.28

[15:34] {dino} jwn to .80

[15:35] {dino} out +.09

[15:37] {dino} \bidu, sina nnew 52 wk lows

[15:37] {dino} i really need to look at keyboard when i type

[15:44] {dino} pretty good drop going on

[15:52] {dino} fcx app lod

[15:55] {dino} ok, calling it a day. thx all

[15:55] {Will49} Cheers guys

[15:56] {patel} take care guys

[15:56] {patel} pretty nice green day for me. 

[15:57] {patel} only if the TIBX would have executed would have been an awesome day

[15:57] {Will49} wtg

01[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening

01[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

[15:57] {thomcbell} good night guys

[15:59] {dino} wow dji -65 in last few minutes