Sep 19 2001

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nice quiet day with 6 trades, out of which one got stopped, and five led to profits. Let me show a chart with nice potential for swing traders - IF the scenario outlined on the chart plays out, and IF nasty battle arounf this stock is won by the company. SVM is a hotly discussed stock of late, with accusations and rebuttals flying back and forth. Staying away from fundamentals, want to throw in a chart with possible scenario. Easy to recognize if you follow my setups, but ask if needed

Session Time: Mon Sep 19 00:00:00 2011

[09:05] {dino} gm all

[09:05] {Threei}  morning dino

[09:06] {dino} hmmm trh 52/sh cash t/o offer

[09:07] {dino} lol, only open unti close today

[09:08] {RonS} gm everyone...impressive article on the log nemo

[09:08] {Threei}  ron :)

[09:11] {ese} morning and welcome to my new reality....at least for 4 months

[09:11] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:11] {Threei}  or :(

[09:12] {ese} definitely the later

[09:12] {Threei}  so the only question about Greece is: will default be announced this seek or postponed again?

[09:13] {dino} postponed until they get next round of mooney

[09:13] {Threei}  but they won't

[09:13] {dino} some due this week i think

[09:13] {Threei}  look at this:

[09:13] {Threei}  - German Chancellor Merkel party makes it 0 for 6 in elections

[09:14] {ese} with all the construction at my school vad it forced the administration to do rescheduling of classes and rooms to make things work 

[09:14] {Threei}  this is loud and clear singla to all politicians of EU: stop bailing out other sovereign nations

[09:14] {ese} i'm a victim

[09:14] {Threei}  oh, I see where it came from

[09:14] {Threei}  was wondwring why they would do such a weird scheduling

[09:15] {dino} just retire from teaching ese

[09:15] {ese} I don't know if you'c seen the school before on fernwood street but if you drive by it now you may not recognize it

[09:15] {ese} ya think so dino

[09:15] {ese} thats the plan

[09:15] {Threei}  I sure did, lol

[09:16] {ese} lol

[09:18] {Threei}  I've also seen construction when went to Bellfry last time

[09:18] {Threei}  look at SLW guys

[09:19] {Threei}  here is what happened to this one as far as market following concerned:

[09:19] {Threei}  sometimes it goes up when market does, and sometimes it does opposite,

[09:19] {Threei}  and it depends on the reason of market move:

[09:19] {Threei}  if market drops because of EU troubles, SLW goers up,

[09:20] {Threei}  as it's seen as safe haven

[09:20] {Threei}  if market drops because of general economy worries, SLW drops with market

[09:20] {Threei}  how about that, instead of simple relation

[09:25] {RonS} wow .tnx -110 basis points

[09:29] {Threei}  FCX, bounce to about .60 is for short entry

[09:31] {dino} down gaps 11246, 2252, 1188

[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break

[09:33] {nemo} spready

[09:33] {Threei}  half lot...

[09:33] {Threei}  and ..5 as a stop

[09:33] {Threei}  .05

[09:34] {Threei}  target is about .60

[09:35] {Threei}  two partials

[09:36] {Threei}  let's trail to .01

[09:36] {Threei}  first part out

[09:36] {Threei}  stop to .96

[09:39] {Threei}  stop to .91

[09:40] {Threei}  crap, missed that FCX top between .50 and .60

[09:40] {Threei}  out SLW

[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break

[09:42] {nemo} a little quick for me

[09:42] {Threei}  see if dives toward .10 for secondary entry

[09:42] {Threei}  here it is

[09:43] {Threei}  .05 stop

[09:44] {Threei}  SPY new low

[09:44] {Threei}  it better hold here

[09:44] {nemo} just broke below weekly pivot

[09:44] {dino} wants those gaps

[09:44] {Threei}  FCX resists

[09:44] {Threei}  so far so good

[09:45] {Threei}  needs to go over .20 again, and will be golden

[09:45] {RonS} hearing O tv at 10:30 edt

[09:45] {Threei}  yeah, new plan

[09:45] {Threei}  new tax

[09:45] {Threei}  out FCX

[09:46] {Threei}  SPY lost support

[09:46] {dino} more taxes, more regs ron

[09:47] {nemo} GDX is moving up

[09:48] {RonS} guess it boils down to question whether he is chokeing his chicken or strangling the goose

[09:49] {dino} lol

[09:49] {dino} its a non-starter, won't pass. just using it for campaign purposes

[09:50] {Threei}  interestingly enough RIMM is green

[09:50] {Threei}  look at FCX

[09:51] {dino} ?

[09:51] {Threei}  there is just so long it can hold against the index

[09:51] {dino} agreed

[09:51] {Threei}  RIMM...

[09:52] {nemo} we're getting into that irrational versus solvency discussion

[09:52] {Threei}  ?

[09:52] {nemo} The market can stay irrational (rimmm) longer than we can stay solvent

[09:52] {Threei}  oh

[09:52] {Threei}  let's see if it gives us long entry on pullback

[09:53] {Threei}  closer to 24 would be nice

[09:54] {Threei}  FCX

[09:54] {Threei}  looks almost ready

[09:55] {nemo} mkt indicators turning up

[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break

[09:55] {Threei}  valid still

[09:56] {Threei}  let's change to .75 break

[09:56] {Threei}  semi-aggressive

[09:56] {Threei}  if holding .65

[09:56] {dino} titn sm l .90

[09:57] {Threei}  invalidated

[09:58] {Threei}  come on RIMM

[09:58] {Threei}  10-15 cents more

[09:59] {nemo} numbers

[09:59] {Threei}  housing market

[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 14 V 15E

[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break

[10:01] {Threei}  if stays bove .50 for scalpers

[10:01] {dino} fcx sm l .60

[10:01] {Threei}  .45 day ttraders

[10:01] {Threei}  target .95

[10:01] {Threei}  three partials

[10:02] {Threei}  first part out

[10:02] {Threei}  stop to .55

[10:03] {Threei}  girls took Monday off or what

[10:03] {Threei}  larisa, patience

[10:04] {dino} maybe so

[10:04] {Threei}  ese, throw a stone in patience window pls

[10:05] {Threei}  come on FCX

[10:05] {Threei}  you can do better than this

[10:05] {Threei}  stop to .59

[10:06] {Threei}  oh boy... we will hear for Timmy too today

[10:06] {Threei}  puking reflex ensues

[10:07] {Threei}  second part out, FCX

[10:07] {Threei}  stop to .64

[10:09] {Threei}  RIMM starts looking short

[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .10 break

[10:09] {Threei}  if stays under .20

[10:09] {Threei}  half lot

[10:10] {Threei}  OK FCX, last thrust please

[10:10] {Threei}  to above .90

[10:10] {nemo} uptick rule in effect

[10:10] {Threei}  a little bit labored trade but safe and not overly fast

[10:11] {Threei}  if anyone got RIMM feel free to start covering

[10:12] {Threei}  stop to .69 FCX

[10:12] {dino} out fcx .80, +.20 

[10:13] {ese} sticks and stones.......may break patients bones......but...but ...but....hmmmmmmmmm......whats she up to now vad

[10:14] {Threei}  sleeping in obviously, lol

[10:14] {Threei}  out last portion FCX

[10:14] {dino} joyg sm l .90

[10:14] {ese} well......i'm watching my screens and it feels like i'm sleeping.......

[10:16] {dino} titn to .10

[10:16] {dino} 1188 filled

[10:16] {ese} theres alot to this being consistent.......i missed a couple of days last week and when i look at my screens they look like hyroglythics

[10:16] {ese} sheesh

[10:16] {dino} randon dance markets, but filling gaps consistantly

[10:16] {nemo} gawd...ese...I saw that...spelling, and I figured it was vad

[10:16] {ese} it's like relearning everytime this happens to me

[10:17] {dino} out titn .11, +.21

[10:17] {ese} i thought it was creative nemo

[10:17] {ese} oh alright......hyroglifics

[10:18] {ese} no comment

[10:18] {ese} ok.....hieroplyphics

[10:19] {dino} how about hyfics

[10:19] {ese} oops hieroglyphics.........i think thats right

[10:20] {nemo} I don't know, I just knew it didn't work phonetically

[10:20] {ese} hell....now i'm not even sure

[10:20] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break

[10:21] {Threei}  ugh

[10:21] {Threei}  sorry wriong symbol

[10:21] {Threei}  and noone saysa word

[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .60 break

[10:22] {dino} obamination in ten, most likely 20 minutes late, plus -100 pts on him speaking

[10:26] {Threei}  X invalidated

[10:31] {dino} out joyg .60, +.70

[10:31] {Threei}  nice

[10:31] {dino} thx

[10:31] {dino} brb

[10:32] {Threei}  I have to say, for such gap down the activity is very timid

[10:32] {Threei}  1 hour in, we have just three trades?

[10:33] {Threei}  no, 4

[10:40] {Threei}  another imbecile opened his mouth:

[10:40] {Threei}  Larry Summers: The world must insist that Europe act

[10:40] {Threei}  I can't believe this

[10:40] {Threei}  cretines that got us in this mess are lecturing Europe

[10:41] {dino} whats not to believe

[10:41] {Threei}  the nerve on these folks

[10:41] {Threei}  summers, geithner

[10:42] {dino} lol obamination is late as usual

[10:46] {dino} hate to have a tee time w/obamination, huh ese

[10:50] {dino} 20 minutes late and counting

[10:50] {dino} egomaniac

[10:51] {dino} osis spike

[10:51] {RonS} hey, it's hard to play "pin the tail on the donkey"

[10:52] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  24 break

[10:52] {dino} osis crazy

[10:52] {Threei}  if stays under .10

[10:52] {nemo} rimm

[10:52] {RonS} nice spread osis

[10:53] {dino} lol

[10:53] {ese} back in

[10:53] {dino} no news?

[10:53] {Threei}  none here

[10:56] {Threei}  the wait is over dino

[10:57] {Threei}  RIMM 1:1

[11:01] {Threei}  ese did throw that stone

[11:02] {Threei}  now patience sweeps up the glass shards

[11:02] {Threei}  while it's quiet, everyone saw the article on pivot levels?

[11:03] {dino} bummer

[11:03] {Threei}  will be a weekly feature for those who use them

[11:03] {patience} read it, as soon as i understand what i am doing, will try

[11:03] {patience} better that nemo come up to victoria and my office and just show me 

[11:04] {Threei}  good idea

[11:05] {dino} retail holds well

[11:06] {dino} ragging boehner again

[11:07] {Threei}  why else to come to the mike

[11:09] {Threei}  here comes Buffet secretary again

[11:10] {Threei}  these folks really believe no one understands how false this argument is

[11:10] {Threei}  mixing income tax and capital gain tac

[11:14] {RonS} hearing O perseverating...

[11:14] {dino} mnta drop

[11:15] {dino} whitehouse.gov

[11:15] {dino} mnta?

[11:16] {Threei}  Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc Ticks lower on reports that Amphastar has received approval for generic Lovenox

[11:17] {dino} ty

[11:19] {dino} cyou sm l .75

[11:26] {Threei}  interesting point on Bloomberg TV

[11:27] {Threei}  goes like:

[11:27] {Threei}  president just called for capital gain tax increase to 35%, and market didn't flinch,

[11:27] {Threei}  which means market realized this is bluff and none of this will be materialized

[11:27] {Threei}  otherwise it would sell off like crazy

[11:28] {RonS} "the emperor has no clothes"

[11:30] {dino} right

[11:38] {nemo} rrc

[11:38] {dino} rrc

[11:38] {nemo} was gonna'' say got dino written all over it

[11:39] {dino} not yet

[11:39] {dino} no news

[11:41] {RonS} $RRC takeover speculation

[11:43] {dino} ty

[11:43] {Threei}  Range Resources Corp. Hearing Dealreporter speculating the company has received bids

[11:46] {ese} L sgen.26

[11:47] {ese} whoa...out 1/2

[11:47] {ese} .43 +.17

[11:48] {dino} gj

[11:49] {ese} out full sgen .46 +.20....good things are worth waiting for 1k/1k

[11:49] {Threei}  :)

[11:51] {Threei}  here comes Timmy

[11:51] {ese} tinny timmy with the eukelele

[11:52] {Threei}  lol

[11:52] {ese} what ever happen him anyway   ....tiny tim...............does he still reside on this planet?

[11:53] {nemo} died about 5 years ago

[11:53] {ese} hmmm   didn't know that....how old nemo?

[11:53] {nemo} I think early 60's

[11:53] {ese} ah oh......bit young

[11:54] {RonS} heard the tulips got to him

[11:54] {nemo} just for info:  spy bounced right at 50% retracement of the 7/10 bottom

[11:55] {nemo} 5, years ago....hah, 15 years ago

[11:55] {nemo} boy time flies

[11:55] {ese} he never did learn....shoulda stopped doing tulips long ago

[11:55] {Threei}  ll... Tim says "we are working close with EU"

[11:55] {nemo} he dried the petals and snorted them

[11:55] {Threei}  EU thinks it's too close for their comfort obviously

[11:55] {ese} thats a given

[11:57] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .75 break

[11:58] {Threei}  just a scalp most likely

[12:17] {Threei}  things stalled

[12:19] {nemo} looking for spy long

[12:19] {nemo} might just be a scalp

[12:19] {nemo} coming into trend line

[12:21] {Threei}  looks breakdownish to me...

[12:21] {nemo} could be vwap at .30

[12:21] {nemo} and .96 on IWM

[12:21] {nemo} would be logical spot

[12:27] {Threei}  break already HPQ

[12:35] {nemo} like tna if sp goes over .45

[12:46] {ese} cya tomorrow

[12:46] {Threei}  take care ese

[12:47] {dino} sm l ssys .14

[12:48] {dino} sm l gpc .08

[12:50] {Threei}  feel free to cover HPQ as you see fit

[12:51] {Threei}  just a scalp

[13:05] {dino}  ssys stop

[13:23] {dino} chk sm l .61

[13:29] {patience} good morning

[13:29] {patience} vad, do you have any sense for fcx

[13:29] {Threei}  down

[13:29] {Threei}  bottomless

[13:29] {patience} you are brilliant

[13:29] {Threei}  no support as far as eye can see

[13:29] {Threei}  I am?

[13:30] {patience} yup, needed another opinion

[13:30] {Threei}  good morning then

[13:30] {Threei}  and sorry for sending ese to throw stones at your window

[13:30] {patience} ran most of yesterday, can barely move my body to reach my coffee cup

[13:30] {patience} i needed broken windows to get me to apply for my freebie government rebate to replace the windows anyhow

[13:31] {Threei}  oh ok

[13:31] {Threei}  not sorry then

[13:31] {nemo} 38.13 spy below s3 which is 39.10  

[13:31] {nemo} fcx sorry

[13:31] {patience} ty, but please work with me to interpret

[13:32] {nemo} 39.10 is S3 pivot support on the daily, which is relatively extreme for movement in a single day

[13:32] {nemo} below that 38.13 seems to be price support

[13:33] {patience} ty  :)

[13:33] {nemo} below that I see 36.30 with possibility in the 36.90 area

[13:42] {dino} .

[13:52] {dino} mako

[13:55] {nemo} if you don't count the gap down, this has been a quiet day

[13:55] {dino} pretty boring from 11 on

[13:55] {Threei}  strangely quiet for the sizeable gap

[13:55] {Threei}  which doesn't bode way for the market btw

[13:55] {nemo} pre Fed effect

[13:56] {Threei}  if we don't get energetic bounce today, selling is far from done

[14:16] {dino} out gpc .48, +.40

[14:18] {dino} out chk .93, +.32

[14:31] {Threei}  nice

[14:32] {Threei}  took me a while to wake up anmd see those

[14:32] {Threei}  but better late than never

[14:41] {dino} thx

[14:42] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Min Venizelos: Talks with Troika officials are over; Announcement expected shortly

[14:42] {Threei}  get out of the way... no one knows what they are going to say and how it's going to move the market

[14:43] {dino} leaked?

[14:43] {Threei}  ot just hope

[14:43] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel affirms support for financial transaction (tobin) tax; must at least be implemented in Europe and ideally worldwide

[14:43] {Threei}  - It would be a disasterous political message if euro zone member states could be thrown out of the EMU because of difficulties.

[14:43] {Threei}  - Remains unclear whether there is even treaty language that allows the EMU to force a member state to stick to the rules.

[14:44] {Threei}  what a mess, jeez

[14:54] {nemo} difficulties???

[14:54] {Threei}  lol

[14:54] {nemo} oh jeez...

[14:57] {nemo} nothing personal, but I almost feel like the world deserves to collapse

[14:57] {nemo} 2012 can't come soon enough

[14:57] {nemo} flush this outhouse and start over

[14:59] {dino} light this candle

[14:59] {nemo} arguably the day is forming a nice bear flag

[15:00] {Threei}  bear?

[15:00] {nemo} 30 min chart

[15:01] {Threei}  on daily?

[15:01] {nemo} 30 min chart

[15:02] {Threei}  losing me

[15:02] {Threei}  show me the flag

[15:02] {Threei}  where it starts?

[15:03] {nemo} ok...hold on

[15:04] {nemo} just sent it

[15:07] {dino} pru l .58

[15:07] {nemo} see it?

[15:08] {nemo} or is it a figment of bunny's imagination...she pointed it out

[15:08] {RonS} had a feeling she wrote that article...

[15:08] {nemo} had to get a special keyboard for her paws

[15:09] {RonS} lol

[15:09] {Threei}  the flag starts at the point 1?

[15:10] {nemo} yeah, but that's "1" is starting to track the multi-time frame review for the week...that's the 50% retracement of the 7/10 bottom

[15:11] {Threei}  OK, I see what you mean

[15:11] {Threei}  somewhat weird time frame for me

[15:11] {Threei}  had to reconcile it with my charts

[15:11] {Threei}  and fainted twice in the process

[15:12] {dino} out pru .72, +.14

[15:12] {Threei}  careful

[15:12] {Threei}  idiots open their mouthes once again

[15:12] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Fin Ministry claims that Greece is nearing a deal with Troika

[15:13] {Threei}  see how market sparkles immediately?

[15:18] {RonS} what a crock rally:  Some Work Still Needed To Quantify Measures - Greek Finance Official - Reuters

[15:19] {Threei}  heh

[15:19] {Threei}  in my view, it's just a brave face

[15:20] {Threei}  trying to put out some optimistic soundbites

[15:20] {Threei}  whatever they decide, it's unresolvable situation

[15:20] {dino} bingo, poli talk/spin

[15:30] {dino} gn all, gotta hop

[15:30] {dino} thx for ideas

[15:33] {Threei}  take care dino

[15:46] {Threei}  pretty sure it's a rally before the next headline

[15:51] {Threei}  OK guys, let's have a pleasant relaxing evening, see you tmorrow

[15:51] {patience} ty vad

Nemo's Findings

Multi Time-Frame Pivot Analysis

Many of you are familiar with Pivot Point analysis, which is a mathematical derivation based on previous price action.  It defines levels of probability for likely future price action.  Market Makers have often used Pivot Points across multiple time frames to find common adjacent levels between time frames that served as confluence zones - stronger levels of resistance or support ,than a single area alone.

Have you ever noticed that price stops or rises to a certain level that never particularly coincides with a previous level of support or resistance?  Oftentimes you will find that those levels coincide with prices calculated at a multi-time frame level.

I regularly employ charts of the SPY and IWM that map these levels, along with significant Fibonacci retracements, to define levels that may affect price action should they reach those levels.  Sometimes single levels end up affecting price action, many times, areas that contain multiple levels from multiple time zones, serve as confluence zones that are more likely to affect price.

Be warned, these levels are not predictive, but they do provide areas that may warrant your attention as price action approaches them.  I will provide on a weekly basis, these levels for the SPY and IWM, and will hopefully provide a recap of how those levels played out at the end of the week for the SPY to illustrate the concept.  So...

ñ     Pivot levels will be demarcated in Yellow and noted as Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Semesterly, Yearly.

ñ     Resistance levels will be in progressively darker blues.  The darker the color, the longer the time-frame.

ñ     Support levels will be in progressively darker reds.

ñ     Fibonacci levels will be

◦       Red-most recent swing low or high

◦       Turquoise-from July '10 swing low

◦       White-from March '09 swing low to April '10 swing high

◦       Green- (SPY only) from 2007 high-2009 low.

ñ     The 50 SMA and 200 SMA will be labeled (remember these will change daily so you will need to import the format links to adjust them)

ñ     I will also provide subjective price levels as defined by the price action..I have found that some price levels, contrary to “Candle Theory”, will continue to have some significance even after they have been eclipsed.

ñ     You will also find links to import the format into Freestockcharts.com, and you may amend them as you see fit.

The charts will look very busy on larger time-scales.  They are primarily designed to be used for the upcoming week.  The 15-30 minute scale is optimum.

For the first installment, let's do an overview of the last week. Then we will look into the next week's expectations.

                                  SPY Multi Time-Frame review for week of 9/11

1.      Between the 12^th and 13^th the 61.8% retracement off the July '10 low served as the low

^2.        The yearly pivot point put a lid on the swing high at the beginning of the 13^th

3.      The 23.6% retracement served as support for the 13^th with...

4.      Support being handed off to the weekly pivot point.

5.      Weekly R1, served as a breakout level on the 14^th, and then support based on  the hammer closing above the line.

6.      The 38.2% retracement served as  support on the 15^th and somewhat fuzzy support on the 16^th.

7.      On the 16^th price action oscillated around the confluence zone of the 61.8% retracement of the 2007 high-2009 bottom, and the Monthly Pivot Point

ñ     We can also see that the 120.90 area served as resistance and support for price action.   This level first became significant on the 2^nd of September.   

                       

                      SPY/IWM Multi-Time Frame Pivots week of 9/17

Before we consider the charts just a couple of macro comments to keep in mind:

• The Fed has promised Europe to print an unlimited amount of dollars to support their banks.
• The Fed has a Two day meeting this week. Not the usual one. There must be something relatively large on the agenda for which the bearded one is trying to build consensus

Therefore, it's a reasonable assumption that we will get an announcement that will push money towards the risk trade, therefore stocks are likely to continue higher to test the August 31 SPY swing high with the next target being the upper boundary of the recent price channel. That swing high has a relatively strong confluence area starting at 123.00 with the 38.2% retracement of the July '10 low followed by the descending 50 sma, price action resistance then comes into play at 123.60. Above that, we're into the weekly resistance levels.

For IWM, there is a relatively strong confluence area prior to the peak of the 8/31 price action, but I would expect IWM to be a good doggy and follow the pack leader higher.

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2918e83a-8c52-4257-bf93-b607c13867f4

http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e7b082a6-9707-4c16-9f08-4b2af3338408

Nemo

Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up

Trade The News Weekly market update: Market Week Wrap-up

- There has been something of a reversal in sentiment as the choppy, highly volatile trading environment of the last six weeks gave way to impressive, steady gains in global equity markets for five consecutive sessions, even as the Greek situation appeared to go from bad to worse. In Europe, more rumors about sovereign downgrades and imminent, non-specific "announcements" by France and Germany, and reports of poor take-up in Greece's debt swap kept investors unsettled about the future of the Euro Zone. However none of these factors ultimately derailed the upswing in equities. Following plenty of chatter last week, Moody's cut the ratings of Societe Generale and Credit Agricole and Fitch cut ratings on five Spanish regional governments, but these also did not decisively turn markets lower. News that China would continue to reinvest its FX reserves in Europe, in the bonds of challenged sovereigns as well as other assets, helped sustain markets, as did continued ECB purchases of Irish and Spanish debt. In addition, action by leading central banks to supply European financial names with a three-month dollar repo facility helped bolster sentiment. In the US there were several discouraging data reports. The September Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicated that conditions worsened for a fourth consecutive month. Realtytrac's August foreclosure index jumped more than 7% sequentially, and default notices rose 40% or more in troubled states like New Jersey, Indiana and California, reinforcing reports that banks are stepping up foreclosure efforts. The weekly initial jobless claims ticked up more than expected. The preliminary September University of Michigan consumer confidence survey inched up from the very weak final August data. Treasury yields remain very low ahead of an FOMC meeting next week that could see the introduction of "Operation Twist," although the 10-year UST edged back above 2% by week's end as funds flowed back into equities. Gold sold off modestly this week, with spot gold closing out the week around $1,800/oz. For the week the DJIA gained 4.7%, the S&P500 grew 5.4% and the Nasdaq increased 6.3%.

- Research In Motion's Q2 earnings report may be a real turning point, although whether it will be a final wake-up call for management or the beginning of the end only time will tell. Earnings and sales for the quarter missed expectations and guidance for the full-year was revised down to the lower end of the firm's prior outlook. Margins are collapsing, though management blamed the phenomenon on its poorly received Playbook product. But most notable were numbers showing that the company was losing market share much faster than expected to rivals Apple and Google. Multiple analysts slashed ratings and estimates for the name overnight, and shares of RIMM were down more than 23% in the first few minutes of cash trade this morning. In other tech disaster news, on Thursday Netflix trimmed its total domestic US subscriber outlook for Q3 to 24M v 25M prior due to attrition from its recent price increase and separation of DVD and streaming services, sending its shares tumbling through the end of the week.

- With the third quarter nearly over corporations continue to update their fiscal guidance. At its annual investor day, MasterCard was upbeat about spending levels even as the economic recovery stalls, and stated that both US domestic and global transaction volumes continue to expand in its Q3. Steel names Nucor and Steel Dynamics offered very weak guidance for Q3. Nucor said profits would be down 40-50% sequentially, reflecting lower steel prices and metal margins, particularly for sheet mill products. Steel Dynamics cut its Q3 outlook nearly in half, due to tightening profit margins in its flat rolled segment and a tough pricing environment. Patriot Coal warned that its Q3 coal output would fall by around 6% on a sequential basis due to geological issues. Following guidance cuts from leading semi names last week, Lattice Semiconductor revised cut the upper end of its Q3 revenue outlook citing softening demand trends. Materials name Solutia cut its full-year view due to flagging demand truck and bus, solar and electronic end markets. On the positive side, Aetna said that it would beat its prior guidance range for FY11, based on lower utilization and better margins, and offered a positive initial look at its FY12 assumptions. Smith & Wesson hiked its FY12 revenue outlook slightly thanks to booming business for guns.

- In M&A news, unconfirmed reports on Friday suggested that United Technology was preparing for a potentially huge acquisition, with stories indicating the firm is ready to spend $20B to nab a competitor. Analysts discussed various potential targets, including Tyco International, Honeywell, Goodrich and Textron. Follow-up press reports said that the company was looking to spend much less than the initial $20B figure. Yahoo's board met with private equity investors to discuss strategic options this week. In a filing, holder Third Point stated that it intends to remove Chairman Bostock with the help of founder and former CEO Jerry Yang. McGraw Hill disclosed that it plans to separate into two separate traded companies, following recent demands by activist investors to unlock value in the firm. Broadcom said that it had a deal to acquire NetLogic for $50/share, in a deal valued at $3.7B. The buy should expand Broadcom's lineup of chips used in wireless network equipment. Ralcorp slumped late Friday ahead of a Monday deadline set by ConAgra for entering negotiations over its $5.2B bid that Ralcorp has already rejected.

- The euro pushed out to six-month lows as of Monday as the fiscal stability of Greece further deteriorated. Comments from a range of European officials indicated that some leading European figures were coming to the realization that a Greek default could be a reality. With this scenario in sight, the EU Commission's Manuel Barroso said that the all-powerful Commission would present options for setting up a euro bond system under existing European treaties. Unsurprisingly, the Germans were not thrilled with this, and Chancellor Merkel reiterated once again that euro bonds are absolutely not a solution. Global central banks teamed up to squelch the emerging liquidity crisis at European banks, while speculation picked up that BRIC nations would ramp up investments in the euro zone, although it remains unclear to what extent they would be able to rescue Europe from itself. There were reports that the Italians were negotiating with China to buy bonds, but the weak Italian five-year bond auction on Tuesday suggested that nothing has been agreed to as of yet. Later reports stated that China was looking to make investments in Italian infrastructure instead.

- The three-month dollar repo facility launched by the Fed, ECB, BoJ, SNB and BoE on Thursday has potentially taken the risk of a funding crunch at European banks off the table. EUR/USD surged to test above 1.3935 after the announcement, although dealers were concerned that the pair was unable to regain the 1.40 handle; the pair was back around 1.3800 within 24 hours. Analysts were somewhat concerned about details regarding the mechanics of the repo facility, namely the very high 20% collateral surcharge for the three-month operations; compare this to the 12% surcharge charged for one-week repo operations. In addition, tapping these lines would temporarily increase the Fed balance sheet, creating intangible "political risk" in the United States (recall the accusations of "treason" GOP presidential hopeful Rick Perry aimed at Fed Chairman Bernanke).

- European officials gathered in Wroclaw, Poland on Friday to attend a Euro Group summit, which included a special appearance by US Treasury Secretary Geithner. Little in the way of concrete measures emerged from the meeting. Austria Finance Minister Fechter suggested that the next tranche of aid for Greece would be paid, although disbursement would be slightly later than expected, on October 14th. Greece was said to be planning to tap its domestic bank liquidity facility in order to bridge the funding gap. There was talk that Europe may be mulling a TALF-like program to help resolve the crisis, although little mention of such a program emerged from the summit. Geithner was said to have pressed the Euro Group to leverage up the EFSF, although ECB Chief Trichet later denied that any talks about bolstering the EFSF had taken place.

- Sterling benefitted from weekend press reports that UK Chancellor Osborne saw no barriers to a second round of quantitative easing if a request came from the BoE. GBP/USD also benefited from the coordinated central bank repo operation, but faced headwinds from former hawk Weale, as he noted that the risk of recession had increased since July and added that growth prospects had worsened again in recent weeks. EUR/CHF was little changed above 1.20 as the SNB reiterated its commitment to the floor. There were also suggestions that the floor could be pushed higher over time. Late in the week USD/JPY was inching higher on vague rumors the BoJ was checking FX rates in the interbank market.

- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left rates on hold at 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting as expected. Accompanying RBNZ commentary struck a more cautious tone over global turmoil while downplaying improving domestic situation, spoiling expectations of reversal from a 50bps post-earthquake policy accommodation back in March. RBNZ Gov Bollard was also non-committal with regards to any policy tightening and only indicated that at some point rates will have to rise. He also expressed little concern about inflation. Private sector economists pushed back expectations for RBNZ tightening to March of 2012 from December of this year after the RBNZ statement, while NZD tested 1-month low of $0.8120.

- Beijing was once again billed as the "lender of last resort," helping risk sentiment recover early in the week on rumors of a Chinese delegation meeting Italian officials about backstopping Rome's fiscal slump with a timely purchase of government debt. Speaking later in the week, PBoC adviser Li Daokui affirmed Chinese interest in Italian bonds over the short term, but also called on the central bank to refrain from "blindly" buying large amounts of EU debt. Meanwhile, China foreign direct investment continued to slide in August, falling to 17.7% ytd/y increase, an 8-month low


TradeTheNews

Sep 16 2011

Nice day with just one stop and quite a few winning trades. Friday, quadruple witching - go figure. Not complaining though.


We are preparing a new feature for the log. If everything goes right, will publish first installment this weekend. Stay tuned.

Session Time: Fri Sep 16 00:00:00 2011
[09:05] {Threei}  Austrian finance minister: Geithner rejected idea of financial transaction tax
[09:06] {nemo} wow...it's cold here this morning (relatively)
[09:09] {Threei}  colder where RIMM is...
[09:09] {nemo} next support is 0...probably under the uptick rule for the rest of it's existence
[09:11] {Threei}  lol... Cramer on CNBC, "maybe part of this rally is related to Obama polls"
[09:18] {Threei}  RIMM is testing .50 support
[09:20] {Threei}  [15:49] {Threei} poor RIMM
[09:20] {Threei}  [15:50] {Threei} earnings after close
[09:20] {Threei}  [15:50] {Threei} most likely won't be pretty
[09:20] {Threei}  [15:53] {Threei} OK, not sticking around for RIMM
[09:20] {Threei}  [15:53] {Threei} I can view the carnage later
[09:20] {Threei}  carnage it is
[09:20] {larisa} gm :)
[09:20] {Threei}  Playbook is a failure, market share is melting relentlessly
[09:20] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:21] {larisa} vad :)
[09:21] {Threei}  AAPL eats RIMM's breakfast, lunch and dinner
[09:21] {Threei}  and Android eats supper and leftovers
[09:23] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:23] {Threei}  Ron :)
[09:23] {Threei}  want to short RIMM on .50 break
[09:23] {Threei}  half lot
[09:25] {Threei}  48% See No Further Need for Labor Unions, 30% Disagree
[09:27] {nemo} uptick rule
[09:28] {_roger99} what are we watching this morning for long and shorts ?
[09:29] {Threei}  FCX for long on pullback
[09:29] {Threei}  RIMM, not sure for what yet
[09:29] {_roger99} thanks
[09:29] {Threei}  short most likely but no clear idea where
[09:30] {Threei}  FCX, if morning volatility takes it back into .50 - .60 area, grab it
[09:30] {nemo} WOW
[09:31] {Threei}  in and out
[09:31] {Threei}  knew it would be so fast, no time for alert
[09:31] {nemo} God bless you
[09:31] {Threei}  so warned in advance
[09:31] {Threei}  anyone?
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  23 break
[09:32] {Threei}  half lot
[09:33] {Threei}  stop .15
[09:33] {nemo} uptick rule
[09:33] {Threei}  ?
[09:33] {_thomcbell} yy
[09:33] {_thomcbell} uptick rule in effect
[09:33] {nemo} lost more than 10% have to buy on offer
[09:33] {nemo} sell on offer
[09:34] {_thomcbell} aug pivot 121.20 correct?
[09:34] {nemo} yep
[09:35] {Threei}  1:1
[09:35] {Threei}  1:2
[09:35] {Threei}  out
[09:35] {nemo} 123.40-123.60 upper end today, 122.20 below that
[09:36] {Threei}  too soon eh
[09:36] {nemo} next support 0
[09:36] {dino} gm all
[09:36] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:40] {Threei}  RIMM again
[09:40] {Threei}  same setup
[09:40] {Threei}  if stays under .15
[09:40] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
[09:42] {Threei}  ugh... late a little
[09:43] {Threei}  crap... gone
[09:45] {_roger99} ESRX.....Vad  ?
[09:45] {_roger99} dropping
[09:45] {nemo} just walking up the trnedlin from the 13th
[09:45] {nemo} trendline
[09:46] {Threei}  oullback under .40, holding above .30 and crissong ,.40 back up
[09:46] {Threei}  long setup
[09:46] {Threei}  loss of .30, short
[09:46] {Threei}  reluctantly
[09:46] {Threei}  half lot
[09:47] {Threei}  short it is
[09:47] {Threei}  stop above .40
[09:48] {Threei}  no go
[09:49] {Threei}  SLW
[09:49] {Threei}  not sure about long here...
[09:51] {nemo} rimm might be short at the whole
[09:52] {dino} no feel so far
[09:53] {nemo} futures are selling off ahead of the number
[09:53] {Threei}  cons confidence?
[09:54] {nemo} yeah, the morons are gonna' tell us how they feel
[09:54] {Threei}  lol
[09:55] {nemo} am I being harsh?  o.k.  lumpens
[09:55] {Threei}  Geithner tells EU leaders to "choose" to solve the crisis
[09:55] {Threei}  oh boy...
[09:55] {_roger99} how is the numbers
[09:56] {nemo} 5.7 vs 56.3 expected
[09:56] {Threei}  U. of Michigan Confidence (Sep): 57.8 actual vs. 56.6 expected (55.7 prior)
[09:56] {nemo} 57.8 actual
[09:56] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:56] {nemo} so the morons feel good
[09:56] {Threei}  yes, and SPY sneezes why?
[09:57] {RonS} hearing est was 57.0 (corrected)
[09:57] {Threei}  even then
[09:57] {RonS} exp
[09:57] {dino} over now anyway
[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[09:59] {Threei}  if stays under .70 of course
[10:00] {Threei}  no go
[10:01] {nemo} dgp .11
[10:01] {nemo} 1/2 .31
[10:02] {nemo} stop under 65
[10:04] {dino} fcx sm s .59
[10:05] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[10:05] {nemo} vwao ,60
[10:05] {nemo} vwap .60
[10:06] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:06] {nemo} rebuy dgp .31
[10:06] {nemo} 1/2 that .43
[10:07] {nemo} stop .15
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
[10:09] {nemo} took off second half of second lot at .45 still original 1/2
[10:09] {Threei}  stop is obvious
[10:09] {nemo} stop now .25
[10:10] {dino} fcx stop -.16
[10:11] {nemo} stop .34
[10:15] {Threei}  dies already SLW
[10:15] {Threei}  -s
[10:15] {nemo} .60 is vwap
[10:15] {nemo} out dgp
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .90 break
[10:15] {Threei}  if stays under 24
[10:17] {Threei}  1:1
[10:19] {Threei}  SLW 1:1
[10:19] {Threei}  took its sweet time
[10:19] {nemo} sitting on VWAP and trendline
[10:22] {Threei}  from what I see, VWAP plays noticeably bigger role lately than it used to couple years ago
[10:22] {Threei}  you may have something in there
[10:22] {nemo} all technical levels...algorithmic trading uses technical levels extensively
[10:23] {nemo} and they're never hangover or have relationship problems so they're quite consistent
[10:25] {_thomcbell} TRENDLINE TEST SPY
[10:25] {Threei}  don't be critical of hangovers... I strongly suspect one strong hangiver was responsible for the discover that the earth is round
[10:25] {_roger99} fcx ...long  ?
[10:26] {Threei}  .55 break, yes
[10:26] {Threei}  invalidated but ona radar for another entry
[10:28] {_roger99} took it
[10:28] {Threei}  where?
[10:29] {_roger99} .49
[10:29] {_roger99} long
[10:30] {nemo} I'm talking about trading...
[10:30] {nemo} bounce here MPP sp
[10:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[10:33] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:33] {nemo} .26 pivot might bounce there
[10:33] {Threei}  .49 a bit impulsive entry, roger... I see no setup here
[10:34] {nemo} I kinda like .40 here but would rather see it get closer to pivot
[10:36] {nemo} see if something sets up here for fcx
[10:37] {nemo} .20 was a breakout area then .00
[10:39] {_roger99} another set up for FCX ?
[10:39] {nemo} looking for one
[10:40] {nemo} .22 lots of activity
[10:41] {nemo} should go a bit now
[10:41] {nemo} I'm in .26
[10:41] {nemo} stop .19
[10:42] {_roger99} tight stop
[10:42] {nemo} if spy weakens I'm out
[10:42] {nemo} yep
[10:42] {nemo} next level is .08
[10:42] {Threei}  actually
[10:43] {nemo} oh oh
[10:43] {Threei}  on .20 break I'd reverse it and go short
[10:43] {_roger99} ok
[10:43] {nemo} except support at .08 not alot of R/R there
[10:43] {nemo} spy weakening
[10:43] {dino} joyg sm s .60
[10:44] {nemo} I'm out
[10:44] {Threei}  and I am short
[10:44] {Threei}  and bold
[10:44] {Threei}  bald
[10:44] {Threei}  both
06[10:44] * pragmatic short at .18
[10:44] {nemo} I'd say old but since we're both the same age I don't want to indict myself
[10:45] {dino} cov joyg .28, +.32
[10:45] {Threei}  right... don't critisize others on the grounds you don't stand verticaly on
06[10:45] * pragmatic :)
[10:45] {Threei}  1:1
[10:46] {Threei}  out in full
[10:46] {Threei}  unclear here
[10:46] {Threei}  don't want to press it
[10:46] {dino} whippy
[10:46] {dino} gj
[10:46] {Threei}  ty
[10:46] {pragmatic} nice short though
[10:47] {Threei}  good day so far, with just one stop... don't want to spoil it by getting overly aggressively
[10:49] {Threei}  ever since losing .80 FCX has this bottomless feel to it
[10:49] {nemo} premarket breakout level on spy here
[10:50] {_roger99} X is setting up
[10:52] {_roger99} long x .83
[10:53] {_roger99} stop is LOD
[10:56] {nemo} well, my Friday sell off started a bit early
[11:02] {dino} ssys sm l .93
[11:05] {nemo} .41 tna
[11:06] {dino} cyou sm l .99
[11:06] {dino} pulp-type
[11:08] {nemo} I'm out
[11:08] {nemo} don't like the action
[11:09] {nemo} either lucky or prescient
[11:09] {nemo} having said that, it breaks it here likly goes
[11:11] {nemo} I'm in again
[11:12] {nemo} 1/2 out .60
[11:12] {nemo} got back my loss
[11:12] {Threei}  nice
[11:12] {Threei}  you are in tune today
[11:12] {nemo} held trend and vwap above
[11:13] {nemo} well, I'm pretty good with the indexes and that dgp was behind gld
[11:13] {nemo} so, just follow the leader
[11:14] {nemo} out
[11:14] {nemo} oh well
[11:14] {nemo} gotta' go talk to bunny, brb
[11:15] {Threei}  lol
[11:15] {Threei}  nemo and his bunny...
[11:16] {RonS} ...must use sign language...
[11:17] {pragmatic} FCX ss .80 ?
[11:18] {Threei}  (GR) Greece is said to be considering taking funds from its bank capitalization fund due to delay in EU/IMF funding disbursement - financial press
[11:19] {Threei}  no
[11:19] {Threei}  it's a bit overstretch, FCX
[11:19] {pragmatic} ok
[11:28] {dino} eggshell day
[11:28] {Threei}  as in?
[11:28] {Threei}  walking on eggshells?
[11:28] {dino} feel like walking on eggshells
[11:28] {Threei}  :)
[11:28] {Threei}  so far so good though
[11:28] {Threei}  wow FCX
[11:29] {Threei}  why did I keep pragmatic from shorting it
[11:29] {Threei}  GR) Greece Fin Min said to be holding a teleconference with Troika members on Monday - financial press- Teleconference with the EU, IMF, and the ECB
[11:30] {Threei}  see, despite them all being in there and talking, there are just tidbits about new talks ahead
[11:30] {Threei}  meaning they can't agree on anyting
[11:30] {Threei}  no confidence
[11:30] {dino} would imagine that happens daily
[11:30] {Threei}  weekend is coming
[11:30] {Threei}  everyone is scared ti get caught
[11:31] {Threei}  and here is a kicker
[11:31] {Threei}  while everyone focused on leaders negotiations
[11:31] {Threei}  thinking that they will or will not agree on something, and that's the end of it
[11:31] {dino} ssys stop -.20
[11:32] {Threei}  in reality, there is another side that may undermine whatever they agree on:
[11:32] {Threei}  (GR) Greece workers in the public sector now calling for a 1 day strike to protest austerity; scheduled for Oct 6 - financial press
[11:33] {Threei}  on top of that, look at tis:
[11:33] {Threei}  (GR) Total private sector participation in the Greece debt program said to be near 75% (lower than prior reports closer to 85% and the 90% target) - financial press
[11:33] {Threei}  - International Institute of Finance said to be in discussions with more banks to increase participation
[11:33] {Threei}  meaning, the depth to which giovermental institutions are involved is bigger than we were told
[11:34] {Threei}  to me, it looks like from bad to worse to worst
[11:34] {Threei}  then to worstest
[11:35] {Threei}  whoever tells us it's just a crisis of confiidence, and once leaders get their act together it will all go away, is hiding his head in the sand
[11:36] {Threei}  it's a very real problem, with no easy or obvious solution,
[11:36] {Threei}  and very possibly, with n solution at all
[11:36] {Threei}  (that's my take - there is no solution to it other than default, and we are talking about much more than just Greece)
[11:39] {Threei}  did I put eeryone to sleep?
[11:40] {patience} not in the least, watching my positions in slw, hgu and gdx  :)
[11:40] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzz:D
[11:41] {Threei}  now you know how I charmed girls in my prime... same method {G}
[11:50] {nemo} looking for spy to hit .20 and set up a short using tza long
[11:54] {dino}  meli sm l .10
[11:55] {Threei}  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-16/europe-rules-out-stimulus-offers-no-bank-aid-at-geithner-parley.html
[12:04] {Threei}  SLW makes such strange movements
[12:04] {Threei}  what's with this sudden spike
[12:05] {nemo} slv
[12:13] {dino} gpc sm l .52
[12:17] {Threei}  for a quadruple witching day, we handle it quite well today
[12:21] {dino} gpc stop -.31
[12:22] {dino} taking a break, struggling a bit
[12:28] {dino} wtf gpc rinsed
[12:56] {Threei}  most of the things stalled
[12:57] {nemo} underlyings getting weaker
[12:57] {Threei}  FCX loses support too
[13:02] {dino} out cyou .39, +.40
[13:03] {Threei}  good one
[13:03] {dino} took hours
[13:09] {dino} joyg sm s .65
[13:09] {nemo} spy at monthly pivot
[13:20] {nemo} spy back at monthly pivot
[13:21] {dino} cov joyg .35, +.30
[13:28] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[13:34] {dino} 07 all red
[13:36] {Threei}  1:1
[13:37] {Threei}  going to lose .40
[13:37] {nemo} this is proably it for the uptrend today
[13:38] {Threei}  there we go
[13:38] {dino} cov .38, +.11 ty 3i
[13:38] {Threei}  :)
[13:40] {nemo} spy bounced at pivot...some resistance at .10, but would think it's a short off .20
[13:44] {nemo} if spy drops as it looks, probably add to fcx position below .35
[13:46] {dino} gpc sm l .20
[14:03] {nemo} this is good, market trending up, FCX not, likely a definite add below .30
[14:03] {Threei}  I like it
[14:03] {nemo} IMO   OALA EHA ATAS
[14:03] {Threei}  say what
[14:04] {nemo} In My Opinion   Opinions Are Like Assholes  Everyone Has One And They All Stink
[14:04] {dino}   gpc to .44
[14:05] {nemo} The acronym sounds better
[14:05] {nemo} You can say it and they think you're speaking some exotic language
[14:05] {dino} stop +.24
[14:05] {nemo} And yet....
[14:05] {nemo} I can still be my normal, crude, rude and vulgar self
[14:05] {Threei}  oala certainly had this hawaiian siund to it
[14:06] {Threei}  atas is rather from russian bandit slang
[14:06] {Threei}  good boy FCX
[14:06] {Threei}  die
[14:07] {nemo} on an upmarket no less
[14:07] {patience} ty vad, crummy trading on my part today.   thought too much and didn't lock in profits.  in fcx....
[14:08] {nemo} dye your hair blonde, that should help the thinking too much part
[14:08] {patience} can't get blonder than it is
[14:08] {nemo} must be Friday, I'm going off the deepend
[14:08] {nemo} deep end
[14:08] {Threei}  you need to go anywhere for that??
[14:08] {nemo} Yeah, I was afraid I just stuck my foot in my mouth
[14:09] {nemo} xxxooo patience
[14:09] {dino} lol
[14:09] {nemo} actually, both feet with my heavy winter boots on
[14:10] {nemo} setting my stop on FCX at .45
[14:10] {nemo} .46
[14:13] {nemo} added .34
[14:16] {nemo} o.k. this day is turning weird
[14:17] {nemo} ahhh,  maybe the classic try to whack the stops before the drop
[14:18] {Threei}  ok, time to help FCX
06[14:18] * Threei hits FCX over the head with 2x4
[14:18] {nemo} we're fine I think
[14:19] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:20] {Threei}  maybe it like pain and suffering?
[14:20] {Threei}  likes
[14:20] {nemo} indexes aren't playing fair
[14:21] {nemo} proverbial hair so far
[14:21] {dino} ssys l .70
[14:24] {Threei}  as expected, Europe is far from being echanted with Geithner's lecturing
[14:24] {Threei}  http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/geithner-warns-europe-about-loose-talk.html
[14:25] {Threei}  you may think I dislike this guy
[14:25] {Threei}  but the truth is, I severely dislike him
[14:26] {dino} ssys to .84
[14:27] {dino} to .87
[14:28] {Threei}  lol
[14:28] {Threei}  dino
[14:28] {Threei}  you are going to love it
[14:28] {dino} out slip ave .85, +.15
[14:29] {Threei}  remember all those "banks need no more capital" and all otherr similar claims
[14:29] {Threei}  here is oerfect summation for those:
[14:29] {dino} yeah
[14:29] {Threei}  never believe anything until it is officially denied
[14:29] {dino} lol, like the protest too much
[14:30] {Threei}  yup
[14:30] {Threei}  locute way to say it
[14:30] {Threei}  -lo
[14:45] {Threei}  I need some kind of support for my head
[14:47] {patience} vad, i am getting wrinkles waiting for fcx.  please use your 2 x 4
[14:47] {nemo} I'm getting bored with this trade
[14:49] {Threei}  somehow it liked 2x4
[14:49] {Threei}  but since I don;t have any trade waiting in line, let this one be...
[14:53] {nemo} I'm out
[14:54] {patience} vad, you need a 2 x 6?
[14:55] {Threei}  nah
[14:55] {nemo} shit
[14:56] {dino}  mkt wants hod
[14:56] {patience} max pain for moi
[14:56] {patience} today is not my day, made my daily but left lots on the table
[14:57] {dino} 1st down day this wek for me
[14:57] {dino} week
[15:10] {Threei}  Europe meeting ended with nothing for today
[15:10] {patience} quelle surpris
[15:10] {Threei}  market can't close up, it's just impossible
[15:11] {dino} no news is good news
[15:11] {Threei}  but this is bad news
[15:12] {Threei}  they can't agree on the next step
[15:12] {Threei}  well, to be exact:
[15:12] {Threei}  I consider it a good news, this thing must be allowed to fall apart, the sooner the better
[15:12] {Threei}  but for today's market needs, it's bad
[15:13] {Threei}  this rally had only one thing going for it - hope that Europe comes up with the way to kick the can down the road once again
[15:13] {patience} bernanke will do that next week
[15:14] {dino} y
[15:14] {patience} i'm making my shopping list
[15:14] {dino} wait until perry hears he's trying to bail out europe
[15:18] {Threei}  I dunno
[15:18] {Threei}  political will may not be there for ben to do that
[15:19] {Threei}  and chances to do it in secrecy are not really big at this point
[15:21] {nemo} They'll meet over the weekend come up with a solution, and pork the shorts
[15:22] {nemo} BOHICA time
[15:23] {dino} rah drop
[15:31] {dino} out meli .20 , all day for a dime
[15:31] {patience} whose the patient one
[15:31] {dino} lol, ;)
[15:32] {dino} bus stop calls, gotta hop, calling it a (good) week, thx all for ides
[15:32] {Threei}  not cpmplainign here... very nice day, with one stop... for a Friday of a nervious week, and quadriple witching, sin to be unhappy
[15:32] {Threei}  tak care dino, see you Monday with rage for revenge
[15:32] {Threei}  RIMM
[15:33] {dino} :D
[15:34] {Threei}  JP) Magnitude 6.6 earthquake strikes near the Honshu region of Japan
[15:36] {nemo} We have almost perfectly oscillated around the monthly pivot today
[15:43] {Threei}  SLW got hit hard
[15:43] {Threei}  and suddenly
[15:46] {Threei}  don't see news for this market spike
[15:47] {nemo} that's it...sayonara for the weekend
[15:47] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great weekend
[15:47] {Threei}  we finished week decently
[15:48] {Threei}  see you on Monday for another one
[15:48] {nemo} te morituri salutamas
[15:50] {larisa} bye :)

Sep 15 2011

Pretty much repetition of yesterday.


Session Time: Thu Sep 15 00:00:00 2011
[08:30] {Threei}  ow'
[08:31] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 428K V 411KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.726M V 3.71ME
[08:31] {Threei}  - Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 414K to 417K
[08:31] {Threei}  - Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.717M to 3.738M
[08:31] {Threei}  August CPI: 0.4% vs. 0.2% est. Core CPI: 0.2% vs. 02.% est. Up 3.8% YoY
[08:32] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -8.8 V -4.00E
[09:00] {nemo} now what
[09:01] {nemo} ECB ANNOUNCES DOLLAR LIQUIDITY MEASURES IN COOPERATION WITH FED
[09:01] {Threei}  ECB, SNB, BoJ and BoE to lauch coordinated repo operations
[09:01] {nemo} QEIII QEIV QEV QEVI
[09:02] {nemo} more liquidity for a debt problem
[09:09] {Threei}  so they are determined to save the world at the moment at the expense of screwing over all the serfs
[09:09] {Threei}  what else is new, and what else is surpriding
[09:09] {Threei}  d=s
[09:13] {dino} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:16] {RonS} gm...eur/$ cross at 1.3915
[09:17] {Threei}  Ron :)
[09:17] {nemo} if we get above 121.2 and hold 122.50 next level
[09:19] {Threei}  FXC looks to me like best short candidate for the first trade
[09:19] {Threei}  well, aside of SLW of course, lol
[09:26] {Threei}  can we hope for .40 - .50 FCX range?
[09:27] {larisa} gm :)
[09:27] {Threei}  and .40 break as atrigger for a 30 cents quick plunge
[09:27] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:27] {larisa} vad :)
[09:27] {Threei}  let's keep it to half lot
[09:27] {Threei}  and don't chase anything
[09:27] {Threei}  these are volatile times
[09:29] {Threei}  4.1 Earthquake hits off Vancover Island
[09:30] {RonS} db +9%
[09:30] {Threei}  well, if at some point I disappear, you know it's a bigger quake... so from that moment on start your day by shorting SLW, profiting and drinking for me
[09:30] {Threei}  FCX
[09:31] {Threei}  how about this vlatility
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break half lot
[09:32] {Threei}  stop above .60 and .65, scalpers and day traders respectively
[09:32] {Threei}  1:1 for each
[09:32] {Threei}  1:2
[09:32] {Threei}  little beaut
[09:32] {Threei}  out in full.15
[09:32] {nemo} not doing opens
[09:33] {dino} gj
[09:33] {dino} nor i nemo
[09:33] {Threei}  this one was perfect, taking advantage of volatility
[09:33] {nemo} yeah, but, if you get stopped out in volatility it's usually a double stop
[09:33] {Threei}  but hakf lot
[09:34] {nemo} I understand, just a bigger hole to dig out of
[09:34] {Threei}  half lot, same hole
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
[09:35] {Threei}  disregard
[09:35] {Threei}  still too spready
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .60 break
[09:39] {nemo} or short under .50?
[09:39] {Threei}  not for me
[09:39] {Threei}  invalidation of long, yes
[09:39] {Threei}  short, no
[09:41] {RonS} hearing obama on tv at around 1030 edt
[09:41] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[09:42] {nemo} yeah, not a question of if he's gonna be on, just what time
[09:42] {Threei}  lol
[09:43] {Threei}  no go
[09:43] {nemo} took .01 long
[09:43] {nemo} 1/2
[09:44] {nemo} what chop
[09:45] {nemo} out under BE
[09:45] {nemo} DF me, was thinking tna .50 break
[09:46] {nemo} out
[09:47] {nemo} op ex?
[09:47] {dino} y
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .50 break
[09:48] {nemo} .50 level
[09:48] {nemo} on X
[09:50] {Threei}  stop is obvious
[09:50] {Threei}  target .75
[09:50] {Threei}  two partials
[09:50] {Threei}  unless you are a scalper in which case you need my guidance like fish - umbrella
[09:51] {nemo} what was that chick's comment ...a woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle?
[09:51] {nemo} Oh yeah, Gloria Steinem
[09:54] {_roger99} is the stop .40 on X  ?
[09:54] {Threei}  just under
[09:54] {_roger99} ok
[09:54] {nemo} philly fed at 10, that might be what's going on here
[09:55] {Threei}  I feel it should be good to neutral
[09:55] {nemo} I'm out until the number
[09:56] {nemo} oil up on falling demand, think that has anything to do with the new World QE program?
[09:56] {Threei}  very liekly
[09:56] {dino} clc sm l .50
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:57] {nemo} maybe take the money and run until after the number?
[09:57] {Threei}  I prefer half and stop trail to .45
[09:57] {nemo} that manufacturing index number sucked, why would this be better?
[09:57] {Threei}  but if you are a scalper... fish... umbrella... :)
[09:57] {nemo} man bicycle
[09:57] {nemo} rabbit nemo
[09:58] {nemo} vodka nemo
[09:58] {nemo} wait....
[09:58] {nemo} where's the white out
[09:58] {Threei}  (EU) US Treasury Geither speculated to suggest at upcoming EcoFin meeting that Europe utilize its EFSF program similarly to how the US used its TALF program
[09:58] {Threei}  - financial press- Reminder: The US TALF program was designed to encourage consumer credit lending, by supporting issuance of ABS collateralized by by various loans such as student, auto and credit loans
[09:58] {Threei}  and that worked great, didn't it?
[09:58] {Threei}  bunch of frightened imbeciles
[09:59] {nemo} yeah, I think the astronomical analogy would be "Black Hole"
[09:59] {Threei}  expectantions are -.15 vs - .30 last time
[09:59] {dino} clc stop
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT PHILADELPHIA FED: -17.5 V -15.0E
[10:00] {dino} cde sm l .22
[10:02] {dino} seems all news is good
[10:04] {patience} in fcx
[10:05] {Threei}  X boom
[10:15] {_roger99} no easy trading
[10:15] {_roger99} 4 now
[10:17] {dino} same here
[10:18] {dino} cde stop -.23
[10:19] {Threei}  grrrr
[10:20] {Threei}  WFM{ how on earth could I miss 68 break setup
[10:20] {Threei}  picture perfect
[10:23] {dino} sm s spy .35
[10:24] {nemo} ty took tza long
[10:25] {nemo} 1/2 at .95
[10:25] {dino} gap fill?
[10:25] {nemo} we
[10:25] {_roger99} esrx is due for a bounce
[10:25] {Threei}  feels like diving under 40 first
[10:26] {nemo} 1/4 more .15
[10:26] {Threei}  good read
[10:27] {nemo} I was looking at it, and Dinot took spy so I went with TZA
[10:30] {nemo} I'm out if IWM gets above .73
[10:30] {nemo} and probably go long tna then
[10:30] {Threei}  (EU) ECB said to suggest quicker approval of EFSF bond purchases at upcoming meeting - financial press
[10:30] {Threei}  - Speculating that the emerging market members of the IMF are resisting the next aid payment to Greece; EMU remains prepared to approve the next tranche
[10:30] {Threei}  - Sees private sector participation in Greece debt swaps near the 90% target following pressure from EU officials on banks to join
[10:30] {dino} 07 all red
[10:31] {dino} cov spy .05, +.30
[10:32] {nemo} not yet
[10:32] {dino} why would banks join?
[10:32] {nemo} got support at .78 for spy
[10:32] {Threei}  they are being "pressured"
[10:32] {nemo} extorted
[10:32] {Threei}  this is mafia
[10:33] {dino} most likely
[10:33] {nemo} I'm out .54
[10:33] {_roger99} out of esrx
[10:33] {dino} cat sm s .25
[10:34] {nemo} tza
[10:34] {nemo} 44 level key for tna
[10:35] {Threei}  what a dump FCX
[10:35] {Threei}  and more seems to come
[10:36] {Threei}  yup
[10:37] {nemo} mmmhhhh...pulled out early
[10:37] {nemo} tza
[10:45] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[10:48] {Threei}  invalidated but looking for diff trigger
[10:49] {dino} got booted
[10:50] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .75 break
[10:50] {Threei}  if stays under .85
[10:56] {Threei}  not really clear
[10:56] {Threei}  market jerks up and down, no theme to the day
[10:57] {Threei}  1:1
[11:01] {Threei}  1:2, out
[11:01] {nemo} .51 is pivot
[11:02] {Threei}  and bands widened so much, I don't feel like pressing my luck and staying in for more
[11:07] {Threei}  good cover eh
[11:10] {Threei}  TZA
[11:10] {Threei}  biounce time nears
[11:11] {nemo} maybe, vwap still .30 away on iwm
[11:14] {Threei}  didn't really give a signal
[11:18] {dino} chk l .50
[11:18] {nemo} spy going to vwap probably, look for tza there
[11:25] {nemo} spy at vwap, might set up short here, but IWM still .18 below...improtant level is 120.50, spy might get there at the same time IWM get's to VWAP, that might be the short entry
[11:31] {Threei}  IMF's Lagarde: The coordinated action by central banks today was exactly what was needed - CNBC
[11:31] {dino} cde sm l .60
[11:32] {Threei}  I have a feeling this comment will come back to bit her
[11:32] {Threei}  bite
[11:32] {nemo} yeah, she's gonna' be happy they don't still use the guillotine
[11:34] {nemo} this area tza might setup
[11:34] {dino} lol
[11:39] {dino} chk to .62
[11:40] {dino} out chk +.12
[11:41] {nemo} tza .11
[11:41] {nemo} stop under the whole
[11:41] {Threei}  feels like SPY still wants up to me
[11:41] {nemo} oh oh
[11:42] {nemo} out flat
[11:42] {Threei}  TNA .50 break
[11:43] {Threei}  target aabout .90
[11:43] {Threei}  3 partials
[11:43] {nemo} yeah, not playing it in this area
[11:44] {Threei}  1:1
[11:44] {dino} hey nemo, i like those vwap charts
[11:44] {nemo} glad they work for ya'
[11:44] {dino} thx buddy
[11:45] {Threei}  1;2
[11:45] {dino} finally in black after the early morning hits
[11:51] {nemo} ,85 tza
[11:52] {nemo} 1/2  .00
[11:53] {nemo} stop under .80
[11:53] {Threei}  (IS) Egypt PM: Peace deal with Israel is not sacred, is always open for discussion
[11:53] {Threei}  oh good
[11:53] {Threei}  let's get rid of more dictators
[11:55] {nemo} stop under .90
[11:55] {nemo} gld
[11:56] {nemo} tza could be a buy on break of .00 if it holds .90
[11:56] {nemo} sayonara
[11:58] {Threei}  looks valid to me
[11:58] {nemo} hah, again, should have kept my original stop
[11:58] {Threei}  took it
[11:58] {Threei}  half out
[11:59] {dino} mw sm l .90
[12:02] {dino} cde to .64
[12:06] {dino} to .69
[12:08] {Threei}  TZA again
[12:08] {Threei}  .10 break this time
[12:08] {nemo} I'm ambivalent here
[12:08] {nemo} spy and iwm looking long
[12:09] {Threei}  they change their look faster than I care to comment, lol
[12:09] {nemo} sign of the times
[12:17] {nemo} gld
[12:18] {dino} indeed
[12:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS
[12:19] {Threei}  .80 break
[12:19] {Threei}  if stays above .70
[12:19] {nemo} .71 tza
[12:19] {dino} cde to .79
[12:20] {nemo} 1/2 02
[12:21] {dino} acc drop
[12:22] {dino} no go
[12:23] {dino} out cde .79, +.19
[12:23] {dino} cyou drop
[12:23] {nemo} oh, that wasn't 1/2 .02 that was .82, wrong key
[12:24] {nemo} 1/4 more .03
[12:24] {nemo} if it breaks .10 a rebuy might be in order
[12:25] {nemo} stop is .79
[12:35] {Threei}  ECB's Stark: Euro bonds would reduce incentives for fiscal discipline, are not a solution for the European debt crisis
[12:46] {nemo} tza .56
[12:46] {nemo} out under .50
[12:46] {nemo} .65 for 1/2
[12:47] {nemo} stop .54, not overly confident
[12:48] {nemo} think spy break more likely
[12:49] {Threei}  IWM
[12:49] {Threei}  breaks
[12:50] {Threei}  trying it long
[12:50] {Threei}  YHOO
[12:50] {nemo} thanks I'm still in tza
[12:52] {nemo} out .69...love that number
[12:52] {nemo} thnk spy bounces off trend in a minute
[12:52] {nemo} oops
[12:53] {nemo} damn
[12:56] {nemo} yeah, spy pulling squirrel in the street at the trendline
[12:59] {Threei}  wow
[12:59] {Threei}  YHOO is serious
[13:07] {Threei}  PIMCO's Mather: Sees EUR/USD at $1.20 within six months
[13:11] {dino}  wtf mw stopped .83 -.07 then bounces to .90
[13:15] {Threei}  SPY looks breaky
[13:15] {Threei}  and climby
[13:15] {Threei}  and creepy
[13:16] {nemo} it's walking a trendline channel
[13:32] {dino}  joyg sm s .60
[13:32] {nemo} see if this was stophunting on the spy, it regains .90, tna could be a long
[13:35] {Threei}  UBS AG Chairman: disappointed in the trading loss disclosed earlier today; UBS is investigating the incident
[13:36] {nemo} tna might be coming up long here
[13:36] {Threei}  amazing... no matter how these stories repeat, banks don't seem to be able to prevent them
[13:36] {Threei}  rogue traders I mean
[13:49] {dino} cov joyg .40, +.20
[14:00] {dino} spike
[14:01] {Threei}  no news
[14:02] {nemo} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJP1DphOWPs
[14:04] {RonS} absolute classic
[14:05] {dino} 11493 9/1 gap
[14:05] {dino} 2312 and 1234
[14:05] {RonS} knew a guy w/ appliance store that did similar tv...goofier the better
[14:06] {RonS} he used coffins as props in one...funnier than heck
[14:07] {nemo} his deadpan delivery is great
[14:08] {Threei}  another idiot got the mike:
[14:08] {Threei}  (EU) Belgium Fin Min: Deeper EMU budget integration is inevitable, would like to see the EMU consider the Eurobond concept over time
[14:08] {RonS} ...or over dinner?
[14:09] {Threei}  lol
[14:10] {nemo} gld
[14:15] {nemo} http://imgur.com/xJjQf
[14:15] {dino} cyou sm l .20
[14:16] {nemo} looking for tza now
[14:17] {Threei}  yes, looks like market is about to get tired
[14:17] {nemo} big spy volume
[14:18] {nemo} wanted .16 and it jumped right to .19
[14:18] {RonS} my fave:  Sir, we had you and your horses clocked at 5 M.P.H. Also the buggy was weaving back and forth.
[14:18] {nemo} that frosts my ass
[14:19] {Threei}  lol
[14:19] {Threei}  it will pull back now
[14:40] {nemo} thunderstorms...yippee...no trading
[14:41] {nemo} tza again
[14:45] {dino} out cyou .62, +.42
[14:54] {dino} wow 6%+ move since mondays lod
[14:55] {dino} this market does yearly moves in days
[14:59] {Threei}  look at currency moves
[14:59] {Threei}  never in history currencies moved that much that fast that foten
[14:59] {Threei}  often
[15:04] {patience} out fcx
[15:07] {dino} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  around .15 on pullback
[15:19] {Threei}  what pullback TZA says
[15:20] {Threei}  by look of daily, volume continues drying up as price advances
[15:28] {dino} calling it a day, good time, thx for ideas
[15:28] {larisa} bye all :)
[15:30] {Threei}  is my clock wrong?
[15:33] {Threei}  TZA
[15:33] {Threei}  .20 break
[15:36] {Threei}  come on, where is fear
[15:43] {Threei}  USGS: Magnitude 7.2 earthquake strikes near Fiji
[15:43] {Threei}  seems to become daily occurence
[15:43] {nemo} 2012
[15:44] {Threei}  you promised
[15:45] {nemo} 123.60 tomorrow
[15:48] {Threei}  unless news changes moosd
[15:48] {Threei}  mood
[15:48] {nemo} I think we hit it and drop
[15:48] {RonS} O tv telethon?
[15:49] {Threei}  poor RIMM
[15:50] {Threei}  earnings after close
[15:50] {Threei}  most likely won't be pretty
[15:53] {Threei}  OK, not sticking around for RIMM
[15:53] {Threei}  I can view the carnage later
[15:53] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:54] {Threei}  see you tomorrow