Friday, November 2, 2012

Nov 2 2012

Another slow but nicely profitable day. Overall, quite solid week.



Session Time: Fri Nov 02 00:00:00 2012
01[08:55] {Threei}  cipher, welcome back
01[08:55] {Threei}  you OK?
[09:12] {scottie} good morning
01[09:12] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:13] {dino} gm
[09:13] {cipher} gm
01[09:14] {Threei}  dino, cipher :)
01[09:15] {Threei}  cioher, have you beren hit by hurricane?
[09:15] {cipher} sure
01[09:15] {Threei}  thought so
[09:15] {cipher} still no power where I live
01[09:15] {Threei}  tbell hasn't been in the room since then either
01[09:16] {Threei}  your house is OK?
[09:16] {Will49} gm everyone
[09:16] {cipher} thank god yes
01[09:16] {Threei}  will :)
[09:16] {cipher} and my family
[09:16] {cipher} all ok
01[09:16] {Threei}  good to hear
[09:16] {Beau} good morning
01[09:17] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:18] {Threei}  will, you will love the irony of this:
01[09:18] {Threei}  08:58] * cc_8 (info@jtc-071bc3f8.asianet.co.th) Quit (Ping timeout: 121 seconds)
[09:18] {Will49} haha
01[09:19] {Threei}  as russian saying goes, "shoemaker with no shoes"
06[09:20] * Threei slaps cc_8 around a bit with a banner "Doctor, heal thyself"
[09:20] {Will49} :)
01[09:24] {Threei}  HSBC: "A Romney victory would favour USD-MXN gains, an Obama win the opposite."
[09:29] {nemo} we're at the spy 50SMA
01[09:29] {Threei}  I expect another slow day
[09:29] {ese} gm
01[09:29] {Threei}  let's handle it as we did last two
01[09:30] {Threei}  no rush, looking for decent trades and keeping the risk tight
01[09:30] {Threei}  where is Les btw
[09:30] {ese} goooooooooooood,,,,,,,,,oooooooood......moooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrninnnnnnnng ...like that
01[09:30] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:31] {Threei}  and robbers
[09:31] {ese} na forget them.....we want the money men...........Cypher....Where are ya?
01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:33] {Threei}  in aggressively .27
01[09:33] {Threei}  stop under .20
[09:33] {ese} in .28
01[09:33] {Threei}  no need to say, hl
[09:34] {ese} nice
01[09:34] {Threei}  that spread widening shows why you never use market orders on plays like this
01[09:34] {Threei}  guy who got his long filled at .39 still can't believe this
01[09:34] {Threei}  half out
[09:35] {nemo} yeah, especially this early when there's barely any liquidity
01[09:35] {Threei}  out in full
[09:35] {ese} out .56
[09:35] {ese} tks vad
01[09:35] {Threei}  welcome sir
01[09:35] {Threei}  nice and easy
[09:35] {nemo} tna above .70 looks good
[09:35] {Will49} good start Vad tks
01[09:35] {Threei}  :)
[09:35] {nemo} if spy going north
01[09:36] {Threei}  worst joke of the week:
01[09:36] {Threei}  Somebody invented a new cocktail called Hurricane Sandy. It's a watered down Manhattan.
[09:36] {dino} ari hl l .25
[09:36] {ese} ouch
01[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .60 break
01[09:36] {Threei}  hl
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:37] {nemo} partialed .86
01[09:38] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:38] {nemo} out tna
01[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  deja vu
[09:39] {nemo} setting up for double bottom if thna holds .50 and spy holds .30ish
01[09:39] {Threei}  should be double bottom with higher low, SPY
[09:40] {nemo} yeah, watching financials too
01[09:40] {Threei}  what the deuce, where are people
[09:40] {Will49} are job numbers out yet?
01[09:41] {Threei}  1 hour and 10 min ago
[09:41] {nemo} yeah, 8:30 finviz.com
[09:41] {ese} wha da ya mean.....i'm here
[09:41] {ese} sheesh
01[09:41] {Threei}  sorry ese :)
[09:41] {ese} lol
01[09:41] {Threei}  SPY new low
01[09:41] {Threei}  umm... not new
01[09:41] {Threei}  lower
01[09:42] {Threei}  FCX is holding decently, but SPY beter reverse quickly
[09:42] {nemo} watching to see whaqt financials do to
[09:43] {nemo} buing small .53
[09:43] {nemo} tna
01[09:43] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .54
01[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
01[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:44] {nemo} out
01[09:45] {Threei}  FCX acts salmonish
[09:45] {cipher} tna l .40
[09:47] {dino} bcor
[09:48] {nemo} spy at fib retrace here, but no volume looks like it wants to test the whole
01[09:48] {Threei}  things are slow, as expected
[09:48] {cipher} out tna -.11
01[09:49] {Threei}  LVS 1:1 close enough, half out
[09:49] {nemo} financials don't have support for another .20
01[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .21
01[09:50] {Threei}  out FCX
01[09:50] {Threei}  too bad, this one really wanted to up
[09:50] {nemo} bounce territory
01[09:50] {Threei}  good stop tightening
[09:51] {ese} spyders...slow death
[09:51] {nemo} they hold the whole we bounce
[09:51] {nemo} in tna .98
[09:52] {dino} bcor hl l .35
[09:53] {dino} out ari .52, +.26
[09:54] {nemo} here we go
01[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .65 break
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:55] {nemo} sm l fas above .50
[09:55] {nemo} out tna
[09:55] {nemo} sheesh
[09:56] {Les} morning
01[09:56] {Threei}  hey Les
01[09:56] {Threei}  Invalidated  JPM
[09:57] {nemo} well, at least fas worked
01[09:57] {Threei}  ese, dp sent an e-mail... said he is on strike - he refuses to trade until you introduce him to to the girls from your band
[09:58] {ese} nope!
[09:58] {dino} out bcor .35, +1.00
01[09:58] {Threei}  wtg dino
[09:58] {Will49} all right dino
[09:58] {dino} ty
[09:58] {ese} dino where did you find that one? bcor
[09:59] {dino} top ten decliners scanner w/my perimeters
[09:59] {ese} nemo........i got my finger on the trigger for tna if spy does higher low here
[10:00] {nemo} ok small tna .89 stop under .79 sheesh
01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) SEPT FACTORY ORDERS M/M: 4.8% V 4.6%E
01[10:00] {Threei}  can you believe FCX?
01[10:00] {Threei}  dirty rotten scoundrel
[10:01] {Will49} these things are sent to try us
01[10:01] {Threei}  lol
[10:01] {nemo} raising stop to .80
[10:01] {dino} ssys
[10:02] {nemo} this is looking better
[10:02] {Will49} sitting here trying to be the pecker not the peckee
[10:02] {nemo} o.k. I'll cut you slack on that one
[10:02] {Will49} ah come on nemo
[10:03] {nemo} I'm in too much pain today
[10:03] {Will49} trying to brighten your day
[10:03] {Will49} bunny in a snit?
[10:03] {Les} TNA
[10:03] {nemo} shouldn't have tightened my stop
[10:04] {Les} ah already in
01[10:04] {Threei}  funniest line in financial headlines I've seen today:
01[10:04] {Threei}  Lean Hogs is in full bull mode according to our Trend Level indicator
[10:04] {Will49} i love agriculture metaphors
[10:05] {Les} nice risk control nemo
01[10:05] {Threei}  another aftershock, 4.3
01[10:05] {Threei}  they don't stop after that quake
[10:05] {dino} rvbd l .01 trig
[10:05] {Les} will Victoria fall back into the sea in the big one?
[10:06] {Will49} Vancouver Island all bedrock
01[10:06] {Threei}  it's a possibility
[10:06] {ese} Richmond will....just south of Vancouver
[10:07] {Will49} yeah...anything built on fill
[10:07] {Will49} legislature and hotel on harbour are done like dinner
[10:07] {Will49} in Vic
[10:07] {Les} hmmm same index setup as last time?
[10:07] {nemo} capitulation volume spy
[10:08] {Les} shake out the early buyers...
01[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .15 break hl
01[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .05
01[10:10] {Threei}  no go
[10:11] {nemo} l fas .02
[10:11] {nemo} stop under .90
[10:13] {nemo} I'm going back to bed
[10:13] {Will49} nemo=peckee
[10:14] {Les} nighty night
[10:15] {Will49} cc, i feel your pain
[10:15] {dino} ecpg hl l .40 gappy
01[10:16] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
01[10:16] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:18] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:18] {Threei}  for now
01[10:21] {Threei}  valid again
[10:24] {ese} relentless dn here
01[10:25] {Threei}  yes... look at UUP
01[10:25] {Threei}  IMO, market starts accounting for Romney win
[10:25] {ese} somebody didn't like dem dar facatory erders
01[10:25] {Threei}  no
01[10:25] {Threei}  it's about USD
01[10:25] {Threei}  strengthening ahead of elections
[10:25] {ese} hmmmmm good point
[10:26] {Les} UUP far outside bb's in hourly time frame. Could be bear bait for weekend
01[10:26] {Threei}  look at GLD
[10:26] {dino} nah, i think its just random dancing
01[10:26] {Threei}  not in USD, dino
01[10:27] {Threei}  that's quite pronounced chart
[10:27] {dino} stocks i mean
[10:27] {ese} L tna sm.99
01[10:28] {Threei}  if Obama wins, on Wed you'll see dollar dropping like a stone
[10:28] {nemo} wow flr
01[10:28] {Threei}  and equities sparking higher
[10:28] {Les} and investor champagne flowing...
01[10:28] {Threei}  mixed with blood of middle class
[10:28] {Les} ugh not a nice picture
01[10:29] {Threei}  10:28] * cc_8 Quit (Ping timeout: 121 seconds)
[10:29] {Will49} good gawd CC, can't you fix that ping?
01[10:29] {Threei}  lol
[10:29] {dino} bcor hl l .15 stop .89
01[10:29] {Threei}  that's nothing Les... give it time and see what happens when US turns in USSR II
01[10:30] {Threei}  then we will ask ese again how he likes those ideas {G}
[10:31] {dino} lol
01[10:31] {Threei}  saw those lines at gas stations in NY?
[10:31] {dino} you see the ceo of interactive brokers commercial about the election. awesome
01[10:31] {Threei}  oh yes, forgot to tell ese
01[10:32] {Threei}  ese, look at that ad,
01[10:32] {Threei}  guy literally took words out of my mouth
[10:32] {dino} thought it was vad speaking at first
01[10:32] {Threei}  and you heard the same from me for many months now
[10:32] {Les} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4ysvJq2N4E
[10:32] {ese} which ad....sorry L tna am watchin it
[10:32] {Les} this one?
[10:32] {Will49} too bad he's a voice in wilderness
01[10:33] {Threei}  yes, this is it
[10:34] {nemo} that's funny Liz Warren defended one of the asbestos companies
[10:35] {ese} out tna .27 +.28 would stay longer but gotta go.........have a great weekend all
[10:35] {Les} ciao ese
01[10:35] {Threei}  go?? wathc the ad first!
[10:35] {Will49} peace be on you E
01[10:36] {Threei}  have a good weekend ese :)
[10:36] {ese} have book marked it will check it out later cya
[10:37] {ese} will....gonna give you acall today or on the weekend
[10:37] {Will49} OK
01[10:37] {Threei}  don't pick up the phone will, he will turn you into raving socialist
[10:37] {scottie} xl s .80 ?
[10:37] {Will49} never in a million years
01[10:38] {Threei}  I think so scottie
[10:38] {Will49} I'm going to recruit HIM into BC Conservative party
01[10:38] {Threei}  lol
[10:38] {dino} scanners have slowed to almost a stop
[10:38] {scottie} in .78
[10:38] {Will49} They need a new leader anyway
01[10:39] {Threei}  safe bet that'll never happen :)
[10:39] {Will49} me sad
01[10:39] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .46
[10:40] {dino} rvbd to .99
01[10:40] {Threei}  ational Daily Tracking: #Romney 48%, #Obama 48%
01[10:40] {Threei}  can't believe how tight it is
[10:40] {Les} this is bullshit
01[10:40] {Threei}  1:1 FCX
01[10:40] {Threei}  finally
[10:40] {Les} who creates this consensus
[10:40] {Les} every frikin election
01[10:41] {Threei}  not at all... at this point last one was like 54/44
01[10:41] {Threei}  out FCX in full
[10:42] {Les} after 2 rounds of W I am not surprised
01[10:42] {Threei}  nice 1:2 finally
[10:42] {scottie} fcx +.18 tks Vad
01[10:42] {Threei}  yw
01[10:43] {Threei}  nah Les... despite Bush, McCaon was ahead up to that Sept economy crash
01[10:43] {Threei}  XL baby
01[10:43] {Threei}  good find scottie
[10:43] {scottie} out xl +.25 :)
01[10:43] {Threei}  wtg
[10:44] {scottie} ty
[10:44] {Will49} FCX +.19 tks Vad
01[10:44] {Threei}  welcome
01[10:44] {Threei}  total repeat of last two days: slow, boring but solidly profitable
[10:46] {Les} wish I could join yas. seems Sandy knocked account creator for our broker
01[10:46] {Threei}  quite possibly
[10:48] {nemo} confluence across iwm spy Qs and finnies, if we bounce this is it
[10:52] {dino} out rvbd flat
[10:53] {Les} thought SLW solo breakout effort yesterday was strange. Nice smackdown. Let's see if former resistance holds as support
[10:58] {scottie} glmp s .35 ?
[10:58] {scottie} too spready, forget it
01[10:58] {Threei}  wrong symbol?
[10:58] {scottie} gmlp
01[10:59] {Threei}  gmlp
[10:59] {dino} bcor to .49
01[10:59] {Threei}  yeah, leave it be
[11:01] {dino} ecpg to .50
[11:02] {dino} out bcor .50, +.35
[11:03] {dino} ecpg to .64
[11:03] {dino} back min 30
[11:12] {scottie} exc s .40 ?
01[11:13] {Threei}  rather .50 long, IMO
[11:13] {scottie} isn't it an inverse C&H ?
01[11:16] {Threei}  starts curving the wrong way for that, fade is more likely
[11:17] {scottie} in l .51
[11:27] {dino} out ecpg +.24 while away
[11:29] {scottie} half out
01[11:31] {Threei}  :)
[11:31] {Will49} :)
[11:31] {Will49} Guess we had better leave him alone
[11:31] {Will49} or he may not rush to help me next time
[11:32] {Will49} doing my best Bill Clinton impression: CC, ah feel your pain
01[11:32] {Threei}  maybe it's contagious
01[11:32] {Threei}  - The effect of the decent US October employment on risk assets has worn off rapidly and equities are in the red in mid-morning trading. The S&P500 had risen to its 50-day moving average just before the open, however it has turned around and given up gains in the first hour of trading. The greenback has strengthened notably as risk assets trade lower; EUR/USD had fallen from 1.2940 earlier in the European session to trade below 1.2850
[11:34] {Les} nice catch on EXC scottie
[11:34] {Les} vwap is .68 likely target
[11:36] {scottie} tks Les
[11:37] {scottie} stop .53
01[11:39] {Threei}  LOL... Citing Climate Change Mayor Bloomberg Endorses Obama
[11:40] {dino} idiots
[11:41] {Beau} vad, http://news.yahoo.com/timeline-americas-long-stumble-toward-fiscal-cliff-111106760.html
[11:41] {Les} huh?!
[11:41] {Beau} Comment?
01[11:43] {Threei}  very unclear, Beau... I think they'll come up with some kind of compromise last minute
01[11:44] {Threei}  as they always do
01[11:45] {Threei}  and if not, it will all come down to that same end of the world which I intend to meet on Hawaii :)
[11:45] {Beau} but isn't "they" congress, not president, dem or rep
01[11:45] {Threei}  congress, yes
01[11:46] {Threei}  we don't even know its new composition after this election... how do you guess what they'll do about fiscal cliff
01[11:47] {Threei}  if one side gets majority in all branches and houses, it's one level of cooperation... if we see the same gridlock as last two years, another
[11:47] {scottie} out
01[11:47] {Threei}  why didn't we short FCS at 40 break?
01[11:47] {Threei}  FCX
[11:48] {Beau} we hope for working together but afraid continuing refusal to cross aisle
[11:48] {dino} you will not see compromise if obamination wins
[11:48] {dino} guy is sppiteful
01[11:49] {Threei}  totally
01[11:49] {Threei}  his disdain for the other side is palpable
[11:49] {dino} he's a big baby playig high school games
[11:50] {Beau} i respectfully disagree dino.  Reps have bragged about Obama bills being dead on arrival--no discussion.
[11:51] {Les} what does it matter? All white folk are going to hell anyway...
[11:51] {Beau} oh well, back to making money here.
01[11:51] {Threei}  actually, that happened later beau... after he torpedoed a few attempts at working together in first months of his term
[11:51] {dino} well he doesn't ask republicans for input (budgets, obamacare, etc)
01[11:51] {Threei}  remember his remark to Cantor?
01[11:51] {Threei}  "Elections have consequences, Eric... and I won"
[11:52] {dino} he thinks he's god
01[11:52] {Threei}  that's when they said "no cooperation anymore, we will work to make him one term president"
[11:52] {Beau} any different than Bush?  Or afraid Romney?
01[11:52] {Threei}  very different
[11:52] {Beau} Politics- winners get the spoils, losers whine
01[11:53] {Threei}  no pragmatism at all, pure ideology driven
[11:53] {Beau} where is ese, i need help
01[11:53] {Threei}  hehe
01[11:53] {Threei}  let's postpone till Monday :)
[11:53] {Beau} good
01[11:54] {Threei}  don't get me wrong, I am not enchanted with Romney
01[11:54] {Threei}  he is yet to prove he can do any good
01[11:54] {Threei}  but this guy already proven he does harm
[11:55] {dino} obama is a socialist, plain and simple. his ideas will ruin usa
[11:56] {nemo} US has been progressing in that direction for a long time.  Because we are the reserve currrency, we tax as if we're capitalist, and we spend as if we're socialists
01[11:57] {Threei}  nemo gets "right on the money" award of the day
[11:57] {dino} spending is the problem
[11:57] {nemo} well...manifestation of the problem
[11:57] {dino} cut everything 10% across the board
[11:57] {Beau} say this then suhut up.  look at Perry's Texas gov.  Must teach creationism along with evolution in schools.  Textbooks remove most positive referennces to minorities.  No federal $ for women's health but now say state can't afford to do so cut clinics.  On and on
[11:59] {dino} my comment beau, even though i'm republican, imo religion is ruining the world
01[11:59] {Threei}  well, you realize none of us suggests anything this radical, right?
[12:00] {dino} what they should do is tax religions, no more non-profit status
01[12:00] {Threei}  keep religion away from state policies, politics etc
[12:00] {dino} keep it away from everything
01[12:00] {Threei}  and religious fanatics from offices
[12:00] {Beau} dino YES.  but vad, get a rep pres and congress with major tea part help and these things will certainly be at least considered.
01[12:01] {Threei}  so, the problem is democracy :)
01[12:01] {Threei}  and spending is just a manifestation of it, as nemo indicated
[12:01] {dino} the world (here & over there) is falling apart because of bs "my god is better than yours", unbelievable in this day and age
01[12:01] {Threei}  ads soon as electorate realizes it can vote itself perks and free stuff...
01[12:02] {Threei}  it all goes downhill
[12:02] {Beau} bck to benevolent dictator with vad as dictator.
01[12:02] {Threei}  I am all for that
01[12:03] {Threei}  problem with benevolnet dictatorship is, next dictator is guaranteed to be a malevokent one :()
[12:03] {dino} the problem is if you make the rich poorer, the poor will also get poorer
01[12:04] {Threei}  but speaking of current choice... one is fervent ideolog on a marxist-meninist side. Another is moderate pragmatic with technocratic tendencies
01[12:04] {Threei}  to me, choice is clear
[12:05] {dino} indeed. when you praise chavez you know theres a problem
[12:06] {nemo} wow TNA down 75% of normal day's volume
01[12:07] {Threei}  yup, very low volume today
01[12:07] {Threei}  btw...
01[12:07] {Threei}  EXC
[12:07] {nemo} no...it's already done 75%
[12:07] {nemo} it's only noon
01[12:07] {Threei}  back to .40, and idea of breakdown this time looks plauisble
01[12:08] {Threei}  hmmm... I see half of volume
[12:08] {nemo} I've got 6.7 mil does approx 8 of late
01[12:08] {Threei}  I've got 4.5
[12:09] {nemo} mmmhhhh weird
01[12:09] {Threei}  yest 8.8
[12:14] {dino} catm hl l .15
[12:18] {Les} slw .70 b/d?
[12:18] {Les} ah its gone
01[12:19] {Threei}  I like it
[12:19] {Les} might be triple bottom
01[12:19] {Threei}  just keep it on a backburner
[12:19] {Les} right
01[12:19] {Threei}  if SPY bounce fizzles out, it can reestablish
01[12:39] {Threei}  EXC 1:1
01[12:40] {Threei}  anyone took?
[12:40] {Will49} no
[12:40] {Les} zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
01[12:42] {Threei}  LOL... "long time no tweet"
[12:43] {Les} it's a brave new world
01[12:45] {Threei}  electoral college count:
01[12:46] {Threei}  the president can reasonably count on 237 Electoral College votes, while Romney can count on 206
01[12:46] {Threei}  Eight states, with a total of 95 Electoral College votes, remain toss-ups and will determine the winner: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
01[12:46] {Threei}  Florida and Virginia are absolute must-win states for the Romney campaign. If the president wins either, the election will be his.
01[12:47] {Threei}  If he can win those two states, Romney will then have to win either Ohio or Wisconsin to stay in the game.
01[12:48] {Threei}  Ohio is the bigger prize with 18 Electoral College votes but may be a bit more difficult for Romney to carry.
01[12:48] {Threei}  Wisconsin, with its 10 Electoral Votes, is close enough that both parties' presidential and vice presidential candidates have visited the state in recent days. If Romney can win the Badger State after losing Ohio, he would still need to win Colorado and either Iowa or Nevada to win the election.
01[12:49] {Threei}  It appears that the Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate and Republicans to keep control of the House.
[12:51] {Les} IWM looks like its coiling up
01[12:55] {Threei}  SLW bck on watch
01[12:56] {Threei}  too bad I missed consolidation above .80, that was a good shorting point
01[12:56] {Threei}  but I am drifting in and out of pleasant coma
01[12:57] {Threei}  strongly suspect will sent me some of pieces of bc flag
[12:57] {Will49} aha
01[12:57] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
01[12:57] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[12:58] {Threei}  SPY loss of .50 would start serious panic
01[12:59] {Threei}  or, to irritate nemo properly, cascade
[12:59] {Les} waterfall u mean?
[13:00] {nemo} finies holding trend
01[13:00] {Threei}  yes but for some reason nemo is twitching hearing "cascade"
[13:01] {Les} bunny boy?
[13:01] {robbers} GM
[13:01] {Les} what's the problem
01[13:01] {Threei}  wow
01[13:01] {Threei}  hi robbers
[13:01] {Les} hi robbers
01[13:01] {Threei}  late night or what
01[13:02] {Threei}  (US) NJ Gov Christie signs order to ban homeowner deductibles from being imposed by insurance companies following Hurricane Sandy - financial press- Order signed by Governors in NY, NJ, and Connecticut, claimed that the Hurricane did not make landfall as a Hurricane, which would exempt homeowners from the use of deductibles by insurance companies (which could range from 1-5% of the home value)
[13:10] {Les} LVS
01[13:10] {Threei}  1:1 SLW
[13:15] {scottie} got +.09 on first half tks Vad
01[13:18] {Threei}  :)
[13:19] {Les} .70 is S3. Need blood to get it lower
[13:20] {scottie} sbux s .55 ?
[13:20] {Les} CAT bounce here? or .30 b/d?
01[13:21] {Threei}  SBUX yes
01[13:21] {Threei}  CAT, my sympathies are on a short side
[13:22] {robbers} Did I miss anything this morning?  (expecting a snide comment from nemo)
01[13:22] {Threei}  yes... nice day
[13:22] {nemo} I'm not in my usual swing of things
01[13:22] {Threei}  slowish but solidly positive
[13:23] {robbers} Time for nemo to say that the slow trading matches my humor.
[13:23] {nemo} hell I even let Will slide on a pitch down the middle
01[13:23] {Threei}  we got cipher back from the black hole of NY blackout
01[13:23] {Threei}  tbell is stilllost in cyberspace
[13:23] {scottie} in .53
[13:23] {robbers} Great, assume; you personally rescued him.
01[13:24] {Threei}  no, I commissioned Cristie
01[13:24] {Threei}  he carried him on his back to safety
[13:25] {Les} Thinking cypher can carry Cristie on taxes paid on AAPL and TNA...
[13:25] {nemo} fib retrace and vwap on finnies
01[13:25] {Threei}  but I made a mistake sending Brown to find tbell... he as usual does "helluva job"
[13:26] {nemo} bonds showing a bit of weakness
[13:26] {Will49} Vad lol
[13:51] {scottie} half out, finally
[13:51] {Will49} took a while eh?
[13:53] {scottie} yeah
01[13:57] {Threei}  everything takes its sweet time today
01[13:57] {Threei}  but works nicely
[13:58] {Will49} based on last 3 days, this type market may be my edge :)
[13:58] {scottie} Out +.18
[13:59] {Will49} Tks Scottie
01[13:59] {Threei}  see how we are cascading after losing .50?
[13:59] {scottie} yw
[14:00] {Les} LVS
[14:00] {Les} .40 b/d?
01[14:00] {Threei}  hmmm
01[14:01] {Threei}  chart is right but the range is really narow on it today
01[14:01] {Threei}  worth a try I guess
[14:05] {scottie} wmb s 33 ?
[14:05] {Les} some capitulation vol. in indexes, yet lvs holds
01[14:08] {Threei}  not sure about WMB, needs a few min colnsolidation
[14:08] {scottie} ok
[14:13] {scottie} long .11
01[14:29] {Threei}  LVS slowly worms its way to 1:1
[14:32] {scottie} out -.12
[14:35] {Les} wow lvs
[14:35] {Les} SLW. wanna try again?
01[14:36] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Williams: Fiscal Cliff likely to be resolved with some austerity measures; current policies are helping to promote growth and hiring- No signs that stimulus is pushing up prices - Forecasts 2012 GDP at 1.75%, 2013 GDP at 2.5%, 2014 GDP at 3.5% - Notes the FOMC could purchase additional bonds beyond mortgages
01[14:36] {Threei}  idiot
01[14:38] {Threei}  you are loooking at .60 break on SLW, Les?
[14:39] {Les} .70
[14:40] {Les} s3 is .73 woulda coulda shoulda
01[14:41] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
01[14:41] {Threei}  oops
01[14:41] {Threei} Short Setup: SKW  .60 break
01[14:41] {Threei}  sigh
01[14:41] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
01[14:42] {Threei}  there... got it
01[14:42] {Threei}  luckily on a slow day you can get away with three attempts to type the symbol right
01[14:43] {Threei}  btw, next week has another guilty pleasure event, aside of election porn
01[14:43] {Threei}  new Bond movie
[14:43] {Les} ooh yeh
[14:45] {dino} that crus looks like its gap filling from august, on a big beat and raise
[14:46] {Les} SBUX is a 15 min bubble breaker, but scottie got it at the right moment
[14:48] {Les} speaking of which
[14:49] {Les} http://trading-archives.blogspot.ch/2012/11/abc-r3-reversal-011112.html
[14:50] {Les} here's yesterday's ABC reversal
[14:50] {Les} logging all of em. wanna extract some trigger information from them all, if it's statistically there
[14:51] {Les} bubble breakers, R3 reversals
01[14:52] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Extending decline to $1.2820; 1-month low
01[14:54] {Threei}  #Ohio: #Obama 49%, #Romney 49%
[14:59] {scottie} out
[15:03] {Les} SBUX 200MA resistance here
[15:04] {Les} .20 b/d?
[15:04] {Les} late
[15:12] {scottie} abx s .70 ?
01[15:13] {Threei}  I think so
[15:13] {scottie} in .69
[15:22] {dino} bth
01[15:25] {Threei}  1:1
[15:26] {scottie} half out
01[15:26] {Threei}  good percentage in your finds, scottie
01[15:27] {Threei}  it's so amazing to observe this progress in jjust a few short months
[15:27] {scottie} 4 on 5 today :)
[15:27] {nemo} should be opening his own room anytime now
[15:27] {dino} gj scottie
[15:27] {scottie} tks
01[15:28] {Threei}  mid-summer, you were looking at these same stocks, charts and signals as today
[15:28] {Will49} Scottie...I admire you taking your own trades so early on
01[15:28] {Threei}  but the difference in what you see is nothing short of awesome
[15:28] {scottie} it's been 6 months now
[15:29] {scottie} And I'm confident I'll end up making money, lol
[15:29] {scottie} I still havent had yet a profitable monts, but losses are smaller every month
[15:30] {Will49} Have you been trading "live" for 6 months
[15:30] {scottie} I hope november will be my first profitable one
[15:30] {scottie} yes will¸
01[15:30] {Threei}  look also in internal stats
[15:30] {Will49} Excellent!
01[15:30] {Threei}  as in:
01[15:30] {Threei}  how many winning trades vs losing ones, month to month; how big winners are vs losers
[15:31] {scottie} October was profitable trading wise, but commissions killed me
01[15:31] {Threei}  this will show you which particular tendencies need to be corrected
[15:32] {scottie} I keep breathing during pullbacks now :)
01[15:32] {Threei}  thats' excessive luxury
01[15:33] {Threei}  the notion that humans need oxygen is deeply mistaken
[15:33] {scottie} I'm still trading small quantities, 400 sh on Vad's trades and 200 on mine
01[15:33] {Threei}  and breathing is overrated
[15:33] {nemo} alcohol though...
01[15:33] {Threei}  right
01[15:33] {Threei}  ABX 1:2
[15:34] {scottie} out +.19 :)
[15:34] {Will49} Txs scottie 1:2
[15:34] {scottie} great
[15:35] {dino} bth hl l .93 wide
01[15:35] {Threei}  told you guys... boredom is positive factor in trading
[15:36] {Will49} then bore me to death
01[15:36] {Threei}  look how smooth and profitable these boring days are
[15:36] {nemo} except when you have to get stitches from splitting your chin
01[15:36] {Threei}  true
01[15:36] {Threei}  but I make a good use of a pillow tied up to my chin
[15:36] {scottie} I love those slow trades, a lot less stressful
[15:37] {Will49} amen
[15:37] {dino} glad to see it working scottie
[15:37] {scottie} tks dino
[15:38] {scottie} My ultimate goal is to become you
[15:38] {dino} careful for what you wish
[15:38] {scottie} It might happen, I know, lol
[15:39] {dino} spent a havards education figuring this out
[15:39] {Les}  what's harvard worth?
[15:40] {Les} It's been an Aussie uni degree paid in cash for me so far
[15:40] {Les} lol taxpayers footing the bill for my uni degree. My wife is footing the bill for trading degree...
[15:41] {dino} i can relate les, in my foolish years i made quite a bit then lost more
[15:43] {nemo} Harvard is about a quarter million
01[15:45] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/mn5AQ
01[15:45] {Threei}  amazing
[15:45] {nemo} oh yeah, that was a trip
[15:45] {nemo} came out during the dem convention
[15:48] {Will49} Have great weekend all...I'm off (and happy)
[15:48] {dino} cya
01[15:48] {Threei}  yes... thank you all
[15:48] {Will49} Tks Vad and Scottie
01[15:48] {Threei}  have a great relaxing weekend
01[15:48] {Threei}  we will have more fun next week
[15:48] {Les} cheers
[15:49] {dino} u2
01[15:49] {Threei}  with elections and new Bond movie
[15:49] {scottie} see you all monday, gn
01[15:49] {Threei}  see you Monday!
[15:51] {robbers} Cya.
[15:54] {Les} SBUXS reversed nicely... ciao
[15:56] {dino} out catm .37, +.22

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Nov 1 2012

Another slow but profitable day. I expect this slow rhythm to stay with us until after the election day.

 Session Time: Thu Nov 01 00:00:00 2012
[09:00] {dino} gm
01[09:00] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:00] {Les} afternoon
01[09:00] {Threei}  les :)
01[09:00] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 363K V 370KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.263M V 3.250ME- 4-week avg claims: 367.25K v 368.75K w/w - Prior Initial Jobless Claims revised higher from 369K to 372K - Prior Continuing Claims revised higher from 3.254M to 3.259M
[09:01] {Les} when day presidential elections?
[09:01] {Les} what
01[09:01] {Threei}  Tue
[09:01] {Les} market open as normal?
[09:02] {nemo} yeah
[09:02] {Les} ty
[09:08] {scottie} good morning
01[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:09] {scottie} will be away for an hour or two, have fun
[09:10] {nemo} could you take Les with you?
[09:11] {scottie} no prob,  hi les, wanna come with me ?
[09:16] {Les} no
[09:18] {Les} nothing personal scottie... auto generated response to questions from Nemo
[09:23] {Will49} Good morning
01[09:23] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:23] {Threei}  wow, out east board guys are still off
01[09:24] {Threei}  our
[09:24] {Will49} Maybe they moved their clocks bacl already
[09:25] {dino} crus, odd
[09:25] {Will49} back
[09:28] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:28] {ese} vad
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .15 break hl
[09:30] {nemo} slw might go BOOM!
[09:30] {dino} crus hl l .00 wide
01[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .05 
[09:31] {ese} figured you might be after crus dino.......was just looking at that
[09:31] {dino} :)
01[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
[09:32] {ese} was thinkng TDC also
[09:33] {nemo} may have about another buck south on crus
[09:34] {nemo} fib confluence at the bottom of the gap
01[09:34] {Threei}  1:2, out
01[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[09:36] {Les} big divergence GDX, SLW.
01[09:39] {Threei}  change to .65 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  stop under .55
01[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .50 break
01[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:40] {Les} BATS charts clearly out of whack if GDX is .50
[09:40] {nemo} gdx .26
01[09:41] {Threei}  ugh... wrong symbol, never mind
[09:41] {nemo} nice
01[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break
[09:41] {nemo} put the bottle down, Vad
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:42] {nemo} one of your old favorites dino-veco
[09:43] {ese} out btu .50 +.04 from yesterday..........and es survives a bout of stupidity
[09:45] {ese} not sure what i did but my stop loss didn't take...didn't press the right button or something was looking at $400 dn this morning...was a little stunned to see that i still had a position from last friday
[09:46] {ese} yesterday 
[09:46] {dino} adding nov 35 calls crus
01[09:46] {Threei}  let's trail SLW to .59
01[09:48] {Threei}  and LVS to .44
[09:49] {nemo} crus at -6.66
01[09:49] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
01[09:52] {Threei}  out SLW
[09:53] {nemo} spy has to test 142
01[09:53] {Threei}  and out LVS in full .68
[09:53] {nemo} then we'll see numbers at 10
[09:55] {cc_8} Pre-open movers . US stock futures are mixed this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 5 points to 13,025.00 and S&P 500 index fell...
01[10:00] {Threei}  weak numbers
[10:00] {nemo} barely
[10:00] {nemo} bull market is on
01[10:00] {Threei}  ISM is decent
[10:00] {nemo} we're gonna' run
[10:00] {nemo} pay and pray day
[10:04] {ese} thats a good one nemo.........good way to look at it
[10:05] {nemo} VMW
[10:06] {Les} look at IWM vol at price 1 min
[10:07] {nemo} look at spy volume over that two minute where you had 2.5 mil...that's capitulation/euphoria volume it breaks higher, that's real strength
01[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .55 break
01[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .45 
[10:11] {robbers} thanks, Vad, LVS.
01[10:11] {Threei}  yw
[10:12] {Les} spy outside 1 min bb's as they tighten. reversal time maybe
[10:12] {Les} db spxu?
[10:12] {nemo} you could play that
[10:13] {ese} ok...i need an answer ...i tried to short FAZ at .15 and it wouldn't take it.......anyone know why
01[10:13] {Threei}  FAZ is inversed ETF
01[10:14] {Threei}  those are usually unshortable, just go long FAS instead
[10:14] {nemo} FAS is the long
[10:14] {nemo} you a blonde ese?
[10:14] {ese} lol
[10:14] {ese} ya i got that but just wondering why you cant short them
[10:15] {ese} also.........keep in mind that i tell my students tha no question is a dumb question
[10:15] {Les} no dumb questions, only dumb people...
[10:15] {Les} says Mr Garrison
[10:15] {ese} rotflol.............
[10:16] {ese} you goofs are a bunch of tough nuts to crack
[10:16] {nemo} Well that's what I tell people too...but if you believe in statistical sciences, at a minimum 50% of the people are genetic morons
[10:16] {Les} no to spxu
[10:16] {nemo} no, I think it's a grind up day
[10:17] {nemo} as a matter of fact, I think this is the start of the drive to new highs for the year
[10:17] {Will49} scalps better on a grind up day?
[10:17] {Les} yeh was thinking that with SLW long entry nemo
01[10:17] {Threei}  there is a pair, FAS/FAZ. They move in inverted fashion to each other. Go long one or another. It exhausts all possible intentions - why complicate things with borrowing shares?
[10:17] {nemo} no..buy and hold higher, always take a portion off to control risk
[10:17] {Will49} tks
[10:17] {Will49} that what you mean by pay/pray?
01[10:17] {Threei}  shorting is simple only on surface
01[10:18] {Threei}  mechanics of share lending underneath are very involved
[10:18] {nemo} yeah, you have to buy at support on days like today
[10:18] {Will49} tks nemo
[10:18] {ese} true
[10:18] {nemo} breakouts work, but action has moved so high, you get worried it can't keep going, but it does so you have to pay, and then pray it doesn't drop
[10:19] {Will49} :)
[10:20] {nemo} see, you get no good buy in spots
[10:22] {nemo} 143.25-.50 is volume resistance on spy
[10:22] {nemo} Vad LOVES these type of days....
[10:22] {nemo} ...NOT!
[10:23] {Les} gdx .25 break?
[10:23] {Les} with a bit of consolidation at vwap here?
01[10:24] {Threei}  not sure
[10:25] {nemo} WMB might be a short here
[10:25] {nemo} for you pessimists
[10:32] {ese} ladies and gents have a great rest of the day...catch ya tomorrow
01[10:32] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:32] {Will49} bye eses
[10:32] {Les} and you accuse me of being a fast quitter vad...
[10:35] {nemo} mmmhhhh, this is dangerous:
[10:35] {nemo} http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-57542510-38/court-oks-warrantless-use-of-hidden-surveillance-cameras/
[10:35] {Les} LVS
[10:35] {dino} big brother
[10:35] {nemo} yeah
[10:36] {Will49} more like big daddy 
01[10:38] {Threei}  frikin CAT got away
[10:39] {Les} LVS rippin
[10:40] {nemo} here we go
[10:41] {nemo} we get through 143.50 next resistance is the 50 SMA around .70ish
01[10:44] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  87 break
01[10:45] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[10:45] {nemo} finiies going hi9gher
[10:45] {nemo} spy going hihger
[10:45] {nemo} ursine sodomy!!!
[10:46] {Les} so you're not in fact a hunter Nemo, but a buggerer of bears...
[10:46] {nemo} I've got cat testing .50 ish before drop
[10:46] {nemo} no...merely a reporter on that account
[10:47] {nemo} BOHICA BEARS!!!!
[10:47] {Will49} :D
[10:50] {nemo} one could make the argument for shorting the indexes here but you're not seeing the volume coming in to counteract the run, the attempt at 10 blew right trhough the levels
[10:50] {nemo} wmb very weak
01[10:54] {Threei}  National Daily Tracking: #Romney 49%, #Obama 47%
[10:56] {Les} SLW just tested 5th Oct top
[10:57] {dino} abmd hl l .10 stop .89
[11:00] {Les} LVS s 47?
[11:01] {nemo} where is support?
[11:01] {Les} immediate support .93, strong support .70
[11:02] {nemo} so, what's the Risk/Reward?
[11:02] {nemo} do you have a lower high?
01[11:02] {Threei}  I'd prefer to short into bounce
01[11:02] {Threei}  around .10 - .15
[11:02] {nemo} yep, that's my point..was trying to make Les think...might as well squeeze gold from his ass
[11:03] {Les} well stop it
01[11:07] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  87 break
01[11:07] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[11:09] {Threei}  no worky
[11:09] {dino} abmd stop
[11:10] {nemo} crus .80 level
[11:14] {cc_8} will
[11:14] {cc_8} get on skype, i'll take a look at your irc now
01[11:15] {Threei}  CAT rinse
01[11:15] {Threei}  grrr
[11:15] {nemo} SPY touched the new Monthly Pivot this morning
[11:21] {nemo} iwm at vwap
[11:25] {scottie} abc l 41 ?
[11:26] {dino} pzza drop
01[11:26] {Threei}  I think so but hl
[11:26] {scottie} ok
[11:26] {dino} tumi hl l .70 
01[11:27] {Threei}  (GR) Greece court: planned pension cuts and retirement age increase sought by Troika lenders may be unconstitutional
01[11:28] {Threei}  "oh, OK then, we back off" said noone
03[11:32] * Retrieving #discussions modes...
[11:34] {cc_8} Set1
[11:34] {cc_8} Set
[11:34] {cc_8} Set1
[11:35] {scottie} went to 1:1 within a second, too fast for me
[11:35] {nemo} well, Greece is just setting up to leave the Euro...fine we won't cut anything, go back to the Dreck...ma, pay them their full pension, and they can buy a bag of potato chips with their monthly check
[11:37] {cc_8} Set1
[11:37] {cc_8} Set1
[11:37] {nemo} what are you doing?
[11:37] {Will49} cc is helping me setup my irc
01[11:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .70 break
01[11:40] {Threei}  Invalidated  
01[11:40] {Threei}  on radar though
01[11:40] {Threei}  should be near the bottom
[11:40] {scottie} do you have a read on abc now Vad ?
01[11:41] {Threei}  more looks like short now
01[11:41] {Threei}  gah... late
[11:41] {scottie} that's what I thought tks
01[11:41] {Threei}  those two rejection tails
[11:44] {Beau} good late morning all
01[11:45] {Threei}  beau :)
[11:45] {nemo} slw
[11:48] {nemo} poor bears
01[11:52] {Threei}  nice drop ABC
[11:53] {Les} support levels played out nicely on lvs
[11:53] {scottie} would have been good, hesitated too much
01[11:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .55
[11:57] {nemo} wow
[11:59] {nemo} vwap .74 and decending should get there
01[12:00] {Threei}  you on mirc will?
[12:00] {Will49} yes
01[12:00] {Threei}  no disconnections so far
[12:00] {Will49} not so far
[12:00] {Les} where u at Will?
01[12:00] {Threei}  round of applause for cc_8?
[12:00] {Will49} Victoria BC
[12:01] {Will49} Yea, let's hear it for the wonder kid CC
[12:01] {Will49} he's going to help me set the clock on my VCr next
[12:02] {scottie} lol
[12:03] {Les} ready for test of support SLW.
01[12:03] {Threei}  1:1 LVS
[12:03] {Will49} Vad, new version of mIRC seems to have fixed ping issue
01[12:03] {Threei}  yes
01[12:04] {Threei}  I am just surprised it didn't accept your settings from previous
[12:04] {Will49} I probably screwed it up
01[12:04] {Threei}  normally mirc upgrades always took all preexisting settings
01[12:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  ABC  .50 break
01[12:12] {Threei}  stop .44
[12:16] {scottie} lvs +.19 tks Vad
01[12:16] {Threei}  1:2
01[12:16] {Threei}  out
01[12:16] {Threei}  yw
[12:18] {nemo} dino crus
[12:18] {Will49} tks Vad 1:2
01[12:19] {Threei}  :)
[12:19] {dino} still in the calls nemo
[12:21] {Les} http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/9648637/NYC-Unplugged-photos-of-New-York-during-the-Superstorm-Sandy-blackout.html#?frame=2385763
[12:21] {Les} couple of nice ones therer
01[12:22] {Threei}  mama... http://goo.gl/ewzHF
01[12:22] {Threei}  wtf
01[12:28] {Threei}  half out ABC
01[12:29] {Threei}  out in full
[12:55] {Les} RIG .10 b/d?
[12:55] {Les} nah
01[12:55] {Threei}  meh
[12:56] {Les} range bound. But maybe if it consolidates around this leve...
[12:56] {Les} l
[13:06] {dino} wac drop
[13:15] {Les} tna
01[13:17] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .05 break
01[13:17] {Threei}  If holds  82 
[13:18] {nemo} almost think spy has to test vwap first
01[13:18] {Threei}  could be, but then we won't get trigger and will recalibrate IWM for lower entry
01[13:19] {Threei}  looks good to me
01[13:20] {Threei}  risk is small
01[13:20] {Threei}  SPY seems to be turning
01[13:21] {Threei}  nope
[13:21] {nemo} not as dumb as I look
01[13:22] {Threei}  well, I feel safe betting 5 cents on the chance that nobody could be this dumb {G}
[13:23] {dino} nemo, read on crus?
[13:23] {dino} going to s3?
[13:24] {nemo} pullback looks like here fib support at .70 price support at .50, Next level above .48 then 38.25.  S3 possible, but it has to become a follower evdentually, recommend trailing stop
[13:25] {dino} thx
[13:26] {nemo} interesting test.  most technology stocks have recovered most of their losses within a day.  If this doesn't further indication of market weakness
[13:28] {dino} having trouble w/.20
[13:28] {nemo} will likely test the whole
[13:29] {nemo} also, lunch time
[13:30] {Les} RIG drifted down to near 1:1. 46 might hold
[13:34] {nemo} this should be it
01[13:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .20 break hl
01[13:42] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[13:42] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:42] {nemo} I would target 59 if it breaks that swing high
01[13:43] {Threei}  could be, I just doubt it can get there without gut-wrenching pullbacks
01[13:43] {Threei}  and I am not in the mood to sit through those
[13:44] {Les} nothing but boredom hey vad?
01[13:44] {Threei}  well, with many particpants out of the picture and elections looming, I suspect we are to see this till Wed
[13:45] {Les} right
01[13:45] {Threei}  but we are staying on a positive side
01[13:45] {Threei}  and will has mirc now
01[13:45] {Threei}  so life is good
[13:45] {Will49} all is well in the world
[13:45] {Will49} it takes a village
01[13:45] {Threei}  well, I wouldn't go this far
01[13:46] {Threei}  some things at some spots at some point are relatively bearable
01[13:46] {Threei}  this is how I'd put it {G}
01[13:46] {Threei}  1:1
[13:47] {nemo} should go boom above .40
[13:47] {Will49} .10 scalp...tks Vad
01[13:48] {Threei}  :)
[13:48] {Will49} should I get back in nemo? :)
[13:48] {Will49} don't answer that
[13:48] {nemo} if you're out have to wait for a new setup
[13:49] {Will49} tks
[13:49] {nemo} that right there looks like a double top until it breaks that ..34 level
[13:49] {nemo} Ask vad
01[13:50] {Threei}  what am I, jeeves?
[13:50] {nemo} bad...no just for confirmation of my opinion or denial as the case may be
01[13:51] {Threei}  no, you are right
[13:51] {nemo} above .34 could be a new entry
01[13:51] {Threei}  as much as it pains me to admit
[13:51] {Les} don't encourage him vad
01[13:52] {Threei}  he seems to be a self-encouraging mechanism
[13:54] {dino} vrsn spike
[13:55] {nemo} looters down in Stone Harbor and Margate in NJ.  Those are high end neighborhoods
[13:56] {nemo} My cousin lives 5 miles inland from there
[13:59] {dino} exc drop
01[14:09] {Threei}  http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3111896/What-Happens-at-the-Fed-Under-a-Romney-Presidency.html
[14:11] {dino} exc hl l .85
01[14:14] {Threei}  frikin TNA at 1:2
[14:17] {robbers} I scalped it for .12, thanks.
01[14:18] {Threei}  :)
01[14:18] {Threei}  these days between hurricane and elections feel like mix of sleeping and pecking
01[14:19] {Threei}  wake up, peck some trade, fall asleep again
[14:19] {dino} no kidding
[14:19] {Will49} I'd still rather be the pecker than the peckee
[14:19] {robbers} Waiting for Godot.  Or Romney, whomever comes first.
01[14:20] {Threei}  lol
[14:20] {robbers} 1:3 damn scalpers.
[14:21] {nemo} probably good to .70ish
01[14:22] {Threei}  aftershocks continue at our neck of the woods, woth some reaching about 6
[14:22] {Will49} it's getting us prepared for the big one Vad
[14:22] {dino} exc stop -.24
01[14:23] {Threei}  I've no doubt that when it comes, it will still be a surprise, lol
[14:23] {Will49} yea, sometime in next 100 years or so
[14:25] {Will49} You're not much above ea level, eh Vad?
[14:25] {Will49} sea
01[14:26] {Threei}  should be enough to clear tsunami
[14:26] {Will49} maybe
01[14:27] {Threei}  I am practically at 17th hwy level whih is considered safe
[14:27] {Will49} Hope so, wouldn't want to have to find a new trading room at this point
[14:27] {Will49} :0
[14:27] {dino} lol
01[14:28] {Threei}  well, gotta survive hawaii volcano first, then worry about local quakes
[14:28] {Will49} yeah, one crisi at a time
[14:28] {Will49} crisis
01[14:29] {Threei}  http://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/lava2.htm
01[14:29] {Threei}  yesterday's update
[14:29] {Will49} C and I will be in Maui during Jan. Half way up Holeackala
01[14:30] {Threei}  cool... Maui is my second favorite
[14:30] {Will49} So if it get active while we're there, I'll have to look for the big trading room in the sky
01[14:32] {Threei}  (GR) Greece govt: Greek court decision today is an opinion, not binding**REMINDER: earlier today a Greece court said that planned pension cuts and retirement age increase sought by Troika lenders may be unconstitutional.
01[14:35] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/gFkCH
[14:38] {Will49} Doesn't history refer to Greece as the cradle of civilazation?
[14:38] {dino} y
[14:39] {Will49} now fantasy land
[14:39] {cc_8} will 
[14:39] {cc_8} check ur reports
[14:39] {cc_8} should be fixed now
[14:42] {Will49} Excellent...tks CC
[14:43] {nemo} wow went to 59
[14:44] {Les}   in the most disorderly manner.
01[14:45] {Threei}  interestingly fitting: Nemo me impune lacessit
[14:45] {nemo} heheheheh...one of my favorite saying after someone pisses me off
[14:46] {nemo} gmcr
[14:46] {nemo} nobody harms me with impunity
[14:48] {nemo} wlt
[14:54] {Will49} pot
[14:54] {Will49} oops
01[14:55] {Threei}  stop with temptations, will
[14:55] {Will49} BC flags:)
01[14:55] {Threei}  hehe
01[14:56] {Threei}  while on Maui, do you intend to drive the road to hana?
[14:56] {Will49} can you imagine our American brothers legalizing pot before we do Vad?
01[14:56] {Threei}  not really
[14:56] {nemo} no way, to much money involved in enforcement
[14:57] {Will49} Have done Hana road a couple of times..pretty but nerve-wracking drive
01[14:57] {Threei}  that it is :)
[14:57] {Will49} nemo, you could let half prisoners go free
[14:58] {Will49} what a saving
[14:58] {nemo} ffiv dino
[14:58] {nemo} yeah, but then a bunch of people would lose there jobs
[14:58] {nemo} I'm all for it
[14:58] {dino} was watching that
[14:58] {nemo} like ffiv under .40
[15:02] {nemo} should test the whole
[15:08] {nemo} oh well
01[15:09] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
01[15:09] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[15:19] {Les} JPM
[15:20] {Les} outside it's 15 min bb's which have tightened up. possible reversal candidate
[15:21] {Les} FAS too. banksters might be cashed in into close.
[15:25] {dino} took hours but out tumi .94, +.24
01[15:26] {Threei}  well... +.24 is good... hours is bad... mixed bag, I don't know what to say...
[15:27] {dino} not much to say
[15:37] {Les} JPM 1:3 - 15 min 'bubble breakers' are something I'll work on developing as my own edge
01[15:39] {Threei}  cool
01[15:39] {Threei}  why did you pick 15 min?
[15:39] {Les} Keep multiple time frames
[15:39] {Les} on days like this
01[15:40] {Threei}  yes but why 15?
[15:40] {Les} I watch 15 min for signs of reversal
[15:40] {Les} too many times trying to catch reversal on grind up in lower time frames
[15:40] {Les} 15 min is key to reversal
[15:41] {Les} 15 min with bb's tightening and stock on the top side of that tightening band... short that sucker
01[15:42] {Threei}  I am sure you'll find this idea is lacking another element
01[15:42] {Threei}  breakouts are made of exactly this too
[15:42] {Les} how so?
01[15:42] {Threei}  tightening BBs tell you sharp move is coming
01[15:43] {Threei}  they don't tell you which way
[15:43] {Les} aaah i get you
[15:43] {Les} no, particular setup this
01[15:43] {Threei}  any consolidation near the high followed by breakout has the same making
[15:43] {Les} when daily grind up has left stock above R3 intraday
01[15:43] {Threei}  so how do you decide short this sucker or buy the break?
[15:44] {Les} wait I'll FB it
01[15:44] {Threei}  look at FCX fpr comparison
01[15:44] {Threei}  what was different in that one?
[15:45] {Les} yes same setup
[15:45] {Les} didn't break
01[15:45] {Threei}  but acted differently
[15:45] {Les} yes
01[15:45] {Threei}  that's what I meant when said more is needed to determine the direction
[15:45] {Les} sure. I don't blindly follow 15
[15:46] {Les} important red flag though
[15:46] {Les} drop down to 3 min time frame
[15:46] {Les} will show it in FB too
01[15:49] {Threei}  OK guys, no more trades
01[15:49] {Threei}  thank you all
01[15:49] {Threei}  another slow but profitable day
[15:49] {Will49} Tks Vad...good day
[15:49] {Les} nice day. thanks
01[15:49] {Threei}  see you tomorrow for more of the same :)
[15:51] {dino} gn all
[15:55] {nemo} definitely higher tomorrow have to test levels

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Oct 31 2012

Despite slow trading, we had nicely positive day. Staying on a conservative side and being careful, skipped 4(!) trades that made us regret skipping them. Still, no complaints.


Session Time: Wed Oct 31 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {scottie} good morning
01[09:02] {Threei}  morning scottie
01[09:03] {Threei}  quotes look funky a bit
[09:07] {Les} wondering how much HFT is offline and what that might do to spread and quotes...?
[09:07] {Les} morning
01[09:07] {Threei}  morning les
[09:07] {dino} gm
01[09:08] {Threei}  dino :)
01[09:08] {Threei}  how's your area?
01[09:09] {Threei}  it's not just HFT, a lot of reports about quotes being flaky
[09:09] {Les} nice trail photos btw
01[09:09] {Threei}  and I'd assume a lot of east board traders are out of the picture
01[09:09] {Threei}  ty
[09:10] {Les} pink fire hydrant... eye catching
[09:10] {dino} got lucky, just sold mlnx 76.53/.51. +3.87 from Thursday
01[09:10] {Threei}  nice
[09:10] {Les} nice
01[09:11] {Threei}  someone has sense of humor in that fire department
[09:13] {Beau} good morning
01[09:13] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:13] {Beau} is market still closed?
01[09:14] {Threei}  no, open, but quotes are questionable
[09:14] {dino} open
[09:14] {Beau} not getting any quotes--empty screens. not laser
01[09:15] {Threei}  I get some quotes, some nare empty
[09:16] {Beau} give me one you are getting please for test
01[09:16] {Threei}  fcx
[09:16] {Beau} thx
01[09:16] {Threei}  gld
01[09:17] {Threei}  no SPY though
[09:17] {nemo} should be weird day
01[09:17] {Threei}  no SLW
[09:17] {Les} suits you perfectly Nemo
01[09:17] {Threei}  looks like NASDAQ quotes are OK, NYSE is spotty
[09:18] {nemo} you took the setup...how gauche
[09:18] {Les} oh get yer hand off it
[09:20] {nemo} if only they were around your neck
[09:20] {Les} touché
[09:21] {nemo} got the warning on technical support for trading this morning...we're on our own
01[09:21] {Threei}  getting any quotes beau?
[09:22] {Beau} no, some quotes on a level II but no charts.
[09:22] {Beau} not sure today will be a fun day
[09:22] {dino} quotes look fine here
[09:22] {Beau} nemo can trade for me and send profits.
[09:23] {ese} morning.........hows everybody down south.......nemo...you ok
01[09:24] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:24] {Threei}  Eurozone unemployment hits new record of 11.6% in September; Spain, Greece top list
[09:24] {nemo} yeah, just a strong breeze up here...I'd be more afraid of Les' breath
01[09:24] {Threei}  nemo, your quotes are OK?
[09:24] {ese} lol
[09:25] {nemo} yeah, 
[09:25] {Les} oh that's just rude
[09:25] {nemo} funny, I look up rude in the dictionary, and there's Les' picture
[09:25] {Les} sigh
01[09:27] {Threei}  I think let's skip the very opening, and see what's happening
[09:28] {ese} good......things are normal
01[09:28] {Threei}  meanwhile, look at this: http://photography.realitytrader.com/2012/10/todd-inlet-trail.html
[09:28] {ese} with les and nemo i mean
[09:28] {ese} all is right with the world...........i'm good now
[09:30] {nemo} usg gonna' be strong today
01[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break hl
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  .55 
01[09:33] {Threei}  nope
01[09:33] {Threei}  spread is jumpy
[09:37] {nemo} this is going to be an educational day
01[09:37] {Threei}  let's observe, maybe things tighten
[09:38] {nemo} or the market takes an enema
01[09:38] {Threei}  did you see this on FCX?
01[09:38] {Threei}  sudden drop under .25 and immediate recovery to above .40
[09:39] {robbers} Saw it.
[09:39] {ese} i'm surprised the system actually works today vad
[09:39] {scottie} .13 gap
[09:39] {dino} rrc drop
01[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .75 break hl
[09:42] {dino} wu seems a bit overdone, 6% lowere drops 27%
[09:43] {ese} L btu .46
[09:44] {nemo} scalp everything, won't take much volume to throw a brick through a level
01[09:44] {Threei}  guys, are you getting charts for SLW or SPY on laser?
[09:45] {scottie} yes on server #2
[09:45] {dino} wu hl l .35
01[09:45] {Threei}  Invalidated  GLD 
01[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .65 break hl
01[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .75 
[09:48] {ese} hmmmmm btu kinda a higher low 1min chrt
[09:48] {nemo} iwm grinding up
01[09:48] {Threei}  1:1
[09:48] {ese} nahhh lets call it a couble bottom
[09:48] {ese} double
[09:49] {scottie} Couldn't take lvs, too fast for me
[09:49] {ese} i;m up .03.......sell sell selll
[09:49] {ese} nahhhhh
[09:50] {cc_8} "Just saw a note in my building that power will be out for at least 5 more days. Roadtrip anyone?" - twitter post from Wall Street Broker
[09:50] {ese} btu not participating here.........hmmmmm not a good sign
01[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  POT  .45 break
01[09:50] {Threei}  hl of course
01[09:51] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
[09:51] {ese} no thanks ...don't do the stuff
[09:52] {dino} out wu .72, +.34
01[09:53] {Threei}  wtg
[09:53] {dino} ty
01[09:54] {Threei}  LVS 1:2 in case someone got it
01[09:59] {Threei} Long Setup:  SPXU  40 break
01[09:59] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[09:59] {Threei}  let's make hl default today
[10:02] {dino} tumi hl l .64
[10:05] {dino} wu hl l .26
01[10:05] {Threei}  things don't move much
[10:06] {nemo} lvs looks interesting over .50
[10:06] {nemo} no volume though
01[10:11] {Threei}  SPXU 1:1
[10:14] {ese} sheesh.............go to the washroom and ya get cut off
01[10:14] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:15] {dino} gj
01[10:15] {Threei}  ty
[10:15] {scottie} spxu +.18 tks
01[10:16] {Threei}  :)
[10:19] {dino} tumi to .00
[10:19] {dino} out +.36
[10:21] {dino} wu stuck stop to .24
[10:22] {dino} out -.02
[10:24] {dino} irg drop
01[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break
01[10:27] {Threei}  ugh, late
01[10:27] {Threei}  maybe second chance
[10:27] {ese} good bounce ya caught there with TUMI dino......it didn't bounce much
01[10:27] {Threei}  If holds  .25 
[10:28] {dino} ty ese
[10:28] {dino} great report and raised tumi
[10:28] {ese} could still go higher probably
[10:29] {ese} i'm outta here though.....still L btu .46...........1200......stop is in.....we'll see what happens end of the day....cya tomorrow
01[10:30] {Threei}  take care ese
01[10:35] {Threei}  no go FCX
[10:41] {scottie} agnc l .90 ?
01[10:42] {Threei}  unless loses .80
[10:51] {scottie} dis s .20 ?
01[10:51] {Threei}  not sure
[10:51] {scottie} ok
01[10:59] {Threei}  can I change my answer on DIS? :)
[10:59] {scottie} Let's get backward a few minutes
[11:00] {dino} 07 red
01[11:03] {Threei}  grrr
[11:05] {dino} wu hl l .09 stop .99
01[11:07] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break
01[11:07] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[11:11] {Threei}  probably two-sided
01[11:15] {Threei}  (GR) Germany Fin Min: EMU fin min teleconference on Greece made good progress but no final decision has been made yet- Does not expect Trioka report before 11th or 12th of November - Sees this date as "ambitious" as there are many unanswered questions. Had asked for a decsion by the end of the month. - Reiterates that a lack of trust is the Eurozones biggest problem - Greece must meet conditions to continue its next aid tranche - Confirms that Parliament must vote on next tranche of Greek aid }- A haircut for Greece is not a possibility - Eurogroup statement: expect to make final decision on Greece at Nov 12 meetin
01[11:16] {Threei} Short Setup: FIO  .30 break
01[11:16] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
01[11:19] {Threei}  Invalidated  
01[11:26] {Threei}  (US) NYSE reports everthing is operating normally and expects a normal close at 4pm
[11:27] {nemo} well...that instills me with confidence
01[11:29] {Threei}  LVS 1:1 on a long side
[11:29] {nemo} cat
[11:34] {nemo} Well, the indexes are trading consistently
01[11:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .60 break
01[11:36] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[11:40] {Les} 2 sided?
[11:41] {nemo} yeah, but...were's next support, what's Risk/Reward?
[11:41] {Les} .30 i see it
01[11:41] {Threei}  I think so
[11:46] {dino} tumi hl l .69
[11:46] {dino} pulp moves
[11:47] {dino} wu stop -.10
[11:52] {dino} gpi spike
01[11:52] {Threei}  1:1
[11:53] {nemo} cat if breaks .80 should go to the whole and then perhaps to vwap
[11:54] {scottie} +.20 tks Vad
01[11:54] {Threei}  :)
01[11:54] {Threei}  out too
[11:54] {nemo} gdx going
01[11:55] {Threei}  I already swore at myself for missing it at 52.40 break
01[12:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  167 break
01[12:01] {Threei}  If holds  .94 
01[12:15] {Threei}  half out
01[12:15] {Threei}  surprizngly, it turns out fine trading day
01[12:15] {Threei}  who would have thought
[12:15] {nemo} thunk
[12:17] {Les} cool. I go live tomorrow
[12:18] {Les} not a frikin word nemo
[12:19] {Les} anyone using the fusion trading platform?
[12:20] {nemo} I heard you are THE Beta tester
[12:21] {dino} wcg hl l .20
[12:21] {Les} ok so I'm it
01[12:25] {Threei}  http://togs.im/ihdx1
01[12:25] {Threei}  incredible photos from the Sandy wake
01[12:31] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .05 break
[12:33] {Les} great photo of breezy point
[12:33] {Les} teleported?
01[12:33] {Threei}  got .03
01[12:34] {Threei}  stop .11
01[12:34] {Threei}  46 is last line of defense
[12:35] {nemo} spy coming into volume support
[12:43] {Les} b'day today. off for drinks. c u's tomorrow
01[12:44] {Threei}  people should stop disconnecting this fast
[12:44] {nemo} he was spawned from Hell
01[12:45] {Threei}  how are we supposed to be polite and say good bye
[12:45] {nemo} I'd rather talk about him behind his back when he's gone
01[12:45] {Threei}  not a problem for nemo who isn't supposed to be polite
[12:45] {dino} out tumi ave .00, +.31
01[12:45] {Threei}  how is tbell I wonder... NY
01[12:46] {Threei}  got relatives in Greenwich CT also, can't get them on the phone
[12:56] {dino} csgp drop
[13:08] {dino} out wcg .44, +.24
[13:08] {dino} taking a breqak
[13:08] {dino} lol break
01[13:08] {Threei}  nice work
[13:13] {nemo} spy probably making a pivot or vwap run
01[13:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  HD 
01[13:32] {Threei}  .50 break
01[13:32] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[13:36] {Will49} Good Morning
01[13:36] {Threei}  will :)
01[13:36] {Threei}  hurricane?? :)
01[13:36] {Threei}  HD target 1:3
[13:36] {Will49} Had a procedure at Royal Jubillee this morning. Still a bit woozy so will just watch today
01[13:36] {Threei}  oh wow
01[13:37] {Threei}  everything's OK?
[13:37] {Will49} Yes, all good
01[13:37] {Threei}  :)
[13:41] {nemo} gs strong today
01[13:43] {Threei}  will, lemme entertain you meanwhile: http://photography.realitytrader.com/2012/10/todd-inlet-trail.html
[13:48] {Will49} Just outstanding Vad! Where is Todd trail?
01[13:48] {Threei}  near Butchart
[13:48] {Will49} ahhh
01[13:48] {Threei}  very easy access
01[14:03] {Threei}  1:1
[14:25] {nemo} spy goes right to vwap
01[14:26] {Threei}  ugh
01[14:27] {Threei}  was thinking of LVS .20 long, and decided to refrain...
01[14:27] {Threei}  that's third regret today
01[14:27] {Threei}  DIS, GDX, now this... I am too much on a conservative side today
[14:28] {Will49} How is today going (in general)
01[14:28] {Threei}  positive
[14:31] {dino} good
[14:31] {Will49} tks guys
01[14:33] {Threei}  both tbell and cipher are off... hope they are OK
[14:34] {dino} hio drop
[14:35] {Will49} hio silver
[14:36] {dino} lol
[14:37] {Will49} at least somebody in the room is old enough to remember
[14:38] {Will49} I think there's a remake in the works no?
[14:38] {nemo} I like the Bill Cosby skit myself
[14:39] {Will49} Yea, Jonny depp playing Tonto
[14:39] {nemo} I saw the Dark Shadows remake...quite campy
[14:40] {dino} w/johnny depp?
[14:40] {nemo} yep
[14:40] {dino} yeah, just watched that
[14:40] {nemo} played Barnabas Collins...love Eva Green
[14:40] {Will49} Depp is great even though a bit wierd
[14:41] {nemo} normal is boring
[14:41] {nemo} like Les
[14:41] {dino} odd but funny movie
[14:42] {nemo} agree
[14:42] {Will49} Depp reminds me of nemo; wierd but successful
[14:42] {dino} lol
01[14:42] {Threei}  lol
[14:43] {nemo} depends on your definition of success
[14:43] {dino} calling it a day. good one, no point in messing it up
[14:43] {Will49} In fact, from now on I'll envision depp when I think of nemo
[14:43] {nemo} better not share the link, huh Vad ;-)
[14:44] {nemo} Haven't seen Al yet, he might kill me
01[14:44] {Threei}  take care dino
01[14:44] {Threei}  what link will?
01[14:44] {Threei}  sorry, nemo
[14:45] {Will49} oohhhh LVS
01[14:45] {Threei}  yeah
[14:48] {scottie} BIDU S 107 ?
01[14:53] {Threei}  smaaal shares
01[14:53] {Threei}  this thing can be jumpy
[14:57] {scottie} forget it
01[14:57] {Threei}  yeah
01[14:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break
[15:04] {nemo} bidu stop trading?
01[15:05] {Threei}  yeah
[15:05] {nemo} but dino left
[15:05] {nemo} indexes have behaved remarkably well
[15:08] {nemo} wow NFLX
[15:08] {nemo} 40k calls before it was halted
[15:10] {nemo} any news vad?
01[15:14] {Threei}  Netflix Inc Icahn discloses 9.98% stake in the NFLX - filing- Now holds a position of 5.54M shares - Icahn says he may seek to have discussions with the company - "The Reporting Persons acquired the Shares with the belief that the Shares were undervalued due to the Issuers dominant market position and international growth prospects. The Reporting Persons believe Netflix may hold significant strategic value for a variety of significantly larger companies that are engaging in more direct competition with one another due to the evolution of the internet, mobile, and traditional industry."
01[15:14] {Threei}  out LVS
01[15:14] {Threei}  +.24
[15:15] {Will49} Me too vad TKS
01[15:15] {Threei}  :)
01[15:15] {Threei}  (GR) Principle haircuts to Greece Eurozone loans said to be off the table - financial press- Examining if Greece Should Continue to Repay Debt Restructuring Holdouts
[15:30] {scottie} bidu :(
01[15:37] {Threei}  that'd be 4th one to regret today eh?
[15:38] {scottie} could have would have should have :)
[15:53] {Will49} See you tomorrow guys
[15:54] {scottie} gn all
01[15:54] {Threei}  thank you all
01[15:54] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 10/29

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  

Apology up front, it's now hunting season so I'm resetting my routine a bit.  I was negligent on collecting news.

Week that Was:


Suffice it to say, in general, earnings and guidance have been somewhat disappointing and the market has been selling the news, even if it is good, albeit in a relative range.  

http://www.factset.com/insight/2012/10/earningsinsight_10.26.12#.UIwP38XA-bM


 
I've heard said that tops are not a bang and drop, but a process of distribution that takes time.  As I write this headline GDP came in a tad better than expected and the market is relatively blase about it.  Here are the daily moves for the basic indexes I track:








The market seems to be saying it's not too excited about what comes down the road. As you can see, the major moving averages(50, 200 SMA) have held in the Financials and IWM. Notice too on SPY the reddish bands.  Those are volume at price bands where heavy amounts of volume have been done. It will take concerted bullish energy to break above, and relatively concerted bearish energy to break below-although that scenario is building.  Notice how that level has held.  Here are longer term views:





I've highlighted the areas of significant volume or where they demarcate insignificant volume, also known as vacuums, or as the trading savant @gtotoy likes to call them "Kirbys."  Since this is taken as of Friday, you don't see how much volume has built up  in the range this week, but it is significant.  Should the price action drop below the box, notice the lack of volume down to 138.60ish.  Notice how the bottom of that gap coincides with the gap up on 8/3.  That will likely be the bounce level, if it drops that 136.80 level then 135.75.  Not to be a pessimist, notice the volume kirby that begins above 142.03.  Methinks we test that 143.40 band before we go lower.


The week that is: 


 

As you can see, we have a volume resistance band that coincides with the WR3 and MPP in the 83.75 area, so it will take a little work to get through that area.  Support is formed at the 200SMA with volume support in the 79.75 area with a volume vacuum starting in the area of WS3, 78.60

 


 The Qs also face volume resistance overhead starting in the area of the 50SMA, but it is a band approximately a dollar wide.  Of course volume support is visible in the 64.25 area.



The SPY also shows a couple of bands of overhead volume resistance with the 50SMA sandwiched in the middle.  The Weekly R3 denotes the most recent swing high.  Volume support held the SPY this week with denoted potential volume support levels below and the 200SMA-the bull market delineation.

In general, the market is looking bounce ready, of course the elections are only a little over a week away so....it could be meander.  Having said that, one more chart:





This is a chart of the dollar.  As you can see, it's traveling a band in a range.  Now the standard relationship is $ down=Market Up.  If the $ holds the range, next move is to test support.  As we see with many of the charts above we see they are near support.  So, given the inverse relationship (normally that is), If the $ begins to drop we should see a rise in the market, because if the $ is worth less, then it should take more of them to buy everything else.  Also...




Looks like Bonds want to at least test the 50 SMA.  Very tight band between there and the 200 SMA. If they break higher normal relationship is inverse to the markets also.


Having said that, I'm not sure what will happen to oil.  Frankly, I'm not sure about anything else either, but given the cloudy economic environment, the market for oil could be mixed should the market advance and the $ drop simply because future expectations of demand for energy will be tempered.

O.K. that's enough for now... 













 






 

Friday, October 26, 2012

Market Week Wrap-up

GDP Soars As Earnings Swoon


- The S&P500 fell to seven-week lows on Friday as the disappointing September quarter earnings season rolled on. There were a few standout sectors, such as the aerospace industry, and Facebook finally gained some ground on decent earnings, but by and large the tone out of corporate America was sour and hesitant. Contrast this with the advance Q3 GDP reading of +2.0%, up from the +1.5% pace seen in Q2. Some analysts quibbled that the big contributors to the better number were government spending and residential fixed expenditures, with only a slight pickup in consumer demand. In Asia, China's NDRC was said to be preparing a new round of fiscal stimulus to coincide with the leadership transition next month. In Japan, the cabinet approved a ¥750B stimulus spending package from central and regional governments. The FOMC met and issued a policy statement that was largely a repeat of last month's statement, pledging 'QE-infinity' and "exceptionally low levels at least through mid-2015," albeit with an acknowledgement of inflation picking up and household spending "advancing a bit more quickly." For the week the DJIA fell 1.8%, the S&P500 was down 1.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.6% as major tech names reported weak earnings.

- Tech industry darlings Apple, Amazon and Google offered perplexing quarterly results: headline numbers from Google and Apple missed expectations, while Amazon reported its first quarterly loss in years. Apple and Amazon offered very cautious guidance. Apple's weaker margins were a big focus, although the firm said they were mostly due to the large number of product launches and refreshes over recent months. Apple's iPhone shipments met expectations, although iPad shipments were a bit soft. Google saw a big decline in the key "cost per click" metric, indicating falling prices for its advertising. On the flip side, tech industry whipping boy Facebook saw its best single-session advance in its brief history as a publicly traded company post earnings, thanks mostly to the 61% y/y growth seen in the firm's mobile users. There was also enthusiasm for new momentum in the firm's mobile advertising business.

- Microsoft officially launched its new Surface Windows 8 tablet. The new system is a radical rethink of the way that users interact with computers, and there has been both praise and criticism for the approach from tech industry journalists. With the launch, Microsoft is diving head first into the hardware manufacturing segment. Much of Microsoft's thunder was stolen by Apple's new iPad mini product, which was also launched this week, along with an iPad refresh and a new 13" MacBook Pro. Analysts seemed to believe the pricing of the new iPad mini was a bit steep (the device starts at $329, compared to base prices for similar Google and Amazon products around $200).

- AT&T's headline numbers met expectations, however investors were concerned by what they saw in the firm's operating metrics. Net adds were down sharply on a y/y basis and margins were lower. iPhone activations were up, although the well-known supply constraints affecting the iPhone 5 held back the impact of the device's launch; recall iPhone 5 was only available for the last 10 days of the quarter. Sprint's quarterly loss was half the expected amount, although they firm's wireless net adds contracted on y/y basis.



- Caterpillar cut its FY12 forecast for the second time this year in its Q3 report and offered a downbeat look at its initial view of FY13 revenue. Executives warned that lower production and temporary shutdowns would continue until demand rebounded. With regard to 2013, Caterpillar is not expecting rapid growth or a global recession but is taking a pragmatic view. The company said the US business is picking up and China is on the edge of a recovery.

- Aerospace and defense names did very well in Q3, despite the looming battle over the fiscal cliff and budget "sequester." Boeing, Lockheed, Northrop Grumman and United Technologies all had excellent quarters, and all except UTX hiked FY12 guidance. Boeing executives were very upbeat, saying that the strong jet order environment to continue through the year. General Dynamics was the exception, missing targets as profits fell nearly 10% y/y. Generally the firms were cautiously optimistic about a resolution to the fiscal cliff in Washington, though they noted contingency plans were in place. Lockheed noted that its preliminary outlook for 2013 is premised on the assumption that sequestration does not occur, while GD warned that budget uncertainty was affecting government orders in shorter-cycle operations in the September quarter.

- Chemicals and materials names Dupont, Dow and 3M had terrible quarters. DuPont and 3M cut FY12 guidance forecasts. Sales volumes in all of DuPont's major markets fell, and the firm said it would cut around 2% of its workforce as a consequence. Dow announced a 5% workforce reduction to control costs in the midst of persistently slow macroeconomic growth. 3M stated that there were no indications that Q4 would be dramatically different from Q3, with business conditions expected to remain challenging for rest of the year. All three firms faced pricing issues: Dow's profits fell nearly 40% y/y as prices declined 9% y/y, although the company said some units saw double-digit declines.

- Analysts assume that the chances Canada would approve Cnooc's bid to acquire Nexen diminished after the Canadian government rejected the Petronas-Progress Energy deal on a preliminary basis. The government warned that the deal would not provide the "net benefit" for the country required by Canada's foreign investment laws. Analysts warned that the decision bodes ill for Cnooc, while others pointed out that while both Cnooc and Petronas are state-owned, Cnooc at least is more transparent as it is publically traded, and Canada has a foreign investment pact with China.

- EUR/USD remains well within the range seen since mid September, and this week trended from 1.3090 to as low as 1.2880. Spain has not yet requested a sovereign aid package, and there were plenty of concerning headlines out of the country, including a shocking record-high unemployment rate of 25% for the third quarter. Moody's may not have downgraded the Spain's sovereign rating, but they did downgrade the ratings on five of Spain's autonomous regions as they began getting approvals for aid disbursements from the regions bailout fund. Meanwhile the Bank of Spain confirmed what most people already knew, that the 2012 deficit-to-GDP ratio would be as high as 7.2-7.4% versus the 6.3% target. Meanwhile Greece took its negotiations with the Troika down to the wire. Troika officials have given Greece until Sunday night to meet their demands and come up with a plan to secure funding; German Finance Minister Schaeuble commented that there were some doubts that Greece had lived up to its commitments and warned that the nation's future in the eurozone was not a sure thing.

- The major focus in FX trading this week was the ever-weakening yen. The USD/JPY pair continued its two-week long ascent coming into the week, testing three-month highs around 80 handle on Monday following the weaker export component in the Japanese September trade balance. Expectations have been building for the BOJ to launch more easing measures and the Japanese government to announce a new stimulus package, helping to drive yen softness. Verbal intervention was heard from BoJ Gov Shirakawa and Econ Min Maehara. USD/JPY topped out around 80.36 and then turned around on Thursday, after the Japanese cabinet approved a ¥750B stimulus package. By late on Friday, the pair was back below the 80 handle.



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