December-January Outlook

December-January Outlook: Cliff Notes by      TradeTheNews


A thumbnail sketch of the global economy portrays some genuine risk appetite building, with equity and commodity markets looking reasonably healthy, thanks to a series of stimulus measures and rescue plans that have played out over the last four years. In the latest round, both the Fed and ECB have followed through on promises for unprecedented stimulus programs, each launching its own version of unlimited quantitative easing: attending to its employment mandate the Fed will buy mortgage backed securities at an initial rate of $40B a month, while the ECB is containing sovereign spreads with its pledge to buy government bonds in the secondary market in tandem with the ESM backstop fund. Greece appears to be out of danger, and Spain has handled its bank recapitalization while quietly pondering a broader bailout. Meanwhile Japan is steering toward open ended stimulus and China appears to be ready for more targeted measures to help its economy after cutting some key rates earlier this year.

Swimming in all of this stimulus, it makes sense that markets generally floated higher this year, but a deeper look shows that the underlying global economy is still not doing well. Europe has officially re-entered recession and faces continued political uncertainties, US GDP growth continues to stagnate at a meager 2% which could be erased by the Fiscal Cliff, Japan's short growth spurt has ended, and Chinese GDP has settled at around the official growth target of 7.5% with no signs of being reinvigorated by a generational leadership change in Beijing.

The short version of the economic story for the next few months may look like a neat and tidy conclusion to a cluster of long complex political negotiations. But the full version of the story could send markets through some new gyrations as sparring political leaders scramble to finally address issues that have lingered for the last few years.

Hills and Valleys

Equity markets have been a good barometer of the level of economic uncertainty generated by the central political and economic questions being faced this year. Though many issues are still unsettled across all the major economies, there has been progress this year, and the ongoing injections of central bank stimulus and the process of stabilizing Europe has yielded some pretty healthy gains in stocks. Notably the main French and German stock indices have just hit 52-week highs as the Greece crisis has been all but resolved. The last few months have been rockier for US equity markets as Washington paused for the election results before getting on with tackling fiscal matters.

Publically traded companies are not waiting around for the politicians to get their work done. Its assumed that firms reliant on large government contracts have already been hedging their bets as they await the resolution of the automatic budget cuts required by the "sequester", adjustments that will invariably impact corporate results in the first half of 2013, no matter what the outcome in Washington.

Another consequence creating some market distortions is that nonfinancial companies sold a record $100B in bonds in November, in part to fund special dividend payouts. Corporate boards have been busy issuing a rash of special dividends ahead of tax reform that could include higher capital gains tax rates next year. So far over 100 companies have declared significant special dividends in Q4, about four times the normal rate. Other firms, most notably WalMart, are accelerating their regular quarterly dividends, making them payable in Q4 rather than in January. With the window about to close on dividend declarations for 2012, such special dividend announcements will probably accelerate in the next week. Every company sitting on a big pile of cash is seen as a candidate for an extraordinary dividend announcement. Some of the more likely names expected to go this route are Visa, Costco, and Wynn, while more speculative minds dream of Apple or Google announcing special distributions. Shareholders are also hedging their bets by selling off equity winners, especially big dividend paying stocks, which has contributed to the Q4 volatility as investors took profits.

In the New Year, it is not clear if any firms will risk the reputational hit of cutting their dividend in favor of share buybacks in response to higher tax rates making dividends a less efficient means of returning capital to shareholders, but it cannot be ruled out as a strategy for 2013. Already, in one extreme case, Oracle has taken the unprecedented step of accelerating all of its remaining fiscal '13 dividend payments into this December. Depending on the final deal in Congress, dividend tax rates could more than double from the current 15% rate, which may lead to significant outflows from the steady dividend payers that were at the heart of many investment strategies in 2012. MLP's may also end up a big loser if their favorable tax status is stripped away in the budget negotiations.

Pulled Away from the Brink

Despite good returns in the stock market, the European economy remains troubled. Double dips in Spain and the UK have spread to the core states as Europe officially entered another recession in Q3. Forecasters are expecting the recession to deepen in coming quarters before a modest recovery in 2014. The deterioration of economic growth will stir some Europeans to renew calls for a more balanced fiscal consolidation that doesn't rely too heavily on budget cuts. The leader in this cause has been the new Socialist President of France, Francois Hollande, but he has been punished for drifting away from stronger austerity measures.

In November, Moody's became the second of the big three ratings agencies to downgrade France, citing France's lack of serious fiscal consolidation efforts. Markets took the ratings cut in stride - French bond spreads barely budged - but it could present problems for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) bailout fund that relies on the ratings of Europe's strongest economies for its own bond ratings. France is Europe's second largest economy and was one of the few remaining Aaa-rated nations supporting the ESM's own Aaa rating. Moody's followed up the French sovereign action with a downgrade of the ESM and its predecessor the EFSF, which could drive up the funding costs for the mechanism that was meant to help contain widening sovereign spreads. This crack in one of the pillars holding up the Euro Zone comes as the EMU is trying to finalize bailout agreements for Greece and Cyprus, and considers one for Spain.

Greece appears to be on its way to getting the funding it needs after a year-long renegotiation of its bailout structure. The last potential stumbling block for Greece is a €10B voluntary bond buyback program that carries a 60-70% haircut. The Eurogroup will pore over the results of the buyback at a December 13 meeting, but if it fails to reach the desired targets, the Eurogroup may require a few additional conclaves to sort out Greece.

Although it is acknowledged universally that Greece was a special case with unique terms, the other program nations-namely Portugal and Ireland-have made noises about getting some concessions after the extraordinary lengths the EMU went to in order to keep Greece in the fold. Though Portugal and Ireland remain on track to return to normal market funding next year, their "bailout envy" could become a sore spot if Spain gets more favorable terms, too.

Even as Greece and Cyprus get their bailout funds, the case for a Spanish sovereign bailout has become trickier. Spain, which has accepted recapitalization funds for its banking sector, has yet to request a sovereign bailout, and expectations are that the government wants to wait until early next year before giving into the pressure to take a full bailout. This delay has already scuttled a German plan to push all three bailouts (Greece, Cyprus, Spain) through its parliament at once, and now Chancellor Merkel may have a much more difficult time getting approval of a Spanish bailout from a Bundestag weary of paying its neighbors debts. Notably the Greek bailout proposal passed through the German lower house by a wide margin, but it required the help of pro-Euro opposition parties to offset defectors from the ruling coalition. This may be a bad omen for a potential Spanish bailout that would dwarf the Greek deal in size and scope.

At the Cliff's Edge

Progress in the US has been even slower than in Europe as a year of kicking the can down the road has led to a last minute scramble to avoid the Fiscal Cliff. Washington will get a two or three week grace period after Thanksgiving to get a deal together before markets get nervous again, but the politicians have already wasted the first week on ideological posturing, summarized by Speaker Boehner saying "we have gotten nowhere." Most observers still expect the Fiscal Cliff will be avoided, but many analysts, including those at S&P, are now shifting their expectations toward an eleventh hour deal, perhaps as late as December 31. The initial sticking point in the negotiations has been that both sides are demanding the other be the first to publically declare their specific spending cut and tax raising plans.

As a starting point, the White House put forward a Democratic wish list that GOP leaders branded as "not serious," as it essentially asked Republicans to give up all of their bargaining chips. The proposal includes a one year extension of the payroll tax credit and unemployment benefits, and a permanent rolling increase in debt limit. It also asks for $1.6T in tax increases and over $50B in new stimulus spending, offset by only $400B in entitlement cuts and a one year postponement of the defense spending cuts triggered by the 'sequester'. The plan is far less generous to conservatives than the outline of last year's failed grand bargain (which involved three dollars of cuts for each new dollar of revenue), and led Republicans leaders to suggest that many Democrats are willing to go over the Fiscal Cliff.

After stewing over the White House proposal for over a week, Boehner's team announced the broad strokes of a counterproposal including $1.4T in new spending cuts, and $800B in new revenue achieved by closing tax loopholes. The White House responded that the plan does not meet the "balance test." This essentially leaves the two parties back to where they were at the start of the budget negotiations last year, with irreconcilable core demands and with no granular details from either side.

Some reports indicate that House Republicans may be more willing to negotiate than they have let on, given their concerns that they make get hung with the blame for going over the Fiscal Cliff. Yet so far the strong rhetoric continues from both sides: the Speaker has demanded that any debt ceiling agreement will involve additional concessions to reducing spending, and that a re-litigation of Obamacare should be on the table; and the President has hammered his ultimatum that the election showed the people agree that rich people should pay higher tax rates.

Since the income tax cuts can be retroactively reinstated (2013 taxes aren't collected until April 2014), the focus of the talks in Washington will likely shift toward the automatic budget cuts required by the "sequester" that were enacted to force action now when politicians were unable to reach a compromise last year. Ultimately, the most likely outcome of the talks is seen as a partial resolution of the Fiscal Cliff focused on delaying sequestration, which would have the most immediate impact on the economy, with tax reform hashed out during 2013. If a grand bargain like the one framed during the 2011 debate could actually be reached, markets would react very favorably. But with the same cast of characters in Washington currently going through the same motions as a year ago, the chances for a grand bargain this time appear slim, though they could arrive at a more modest bargain with more tax reform to come next year.

Breaking the Fall

Politics have also been at play in China, as it began its once-a-decade leadership transition by appointing Xi Jinping head of the Chinese Communist Party, as expected. His predecessor Premier Hu, who will turn over the top political post next year, gave Mr. Xi an additional vote of confidence by immediately ceding the chairmanship of the military to him, which should give the new leader a stronger hand to consolidate his power in this delicate transition period.

The shift to fresh leadership had no immediate salubrious effect on the Chinese economy: the Shanghai Composite added to its dismal performance for the year by losing another 4% in the month of November and economic growth appears to be puttering along near the target rate of 7.5% as no new stimulus efforts have emerged from the government. Mr. Xi's government may have learned a lesson from the huge spending program launched in response to the 2008 global crisis, which ended up stoking inflation and led to wasteful spending on unnecessary construction projects. Analysts anticipate that the new leadership will proceed cautiously, favoring smaller targeted stimulus efforts over massive investments. For example, in late November central economic planners approved $12B of transportation projects, creating sales opportunities for Chinese rail firms. This fine-tuning strategy will likely lead to a gradual recovery for China rather than a sharp rebound.

The news from China isn't all bad, however, as some signs of stabilization are cropping up. After contracting for a solid year, November manufacturing PMI readings for China hit multi-month highs and showed a return to expansion (a reading above 50 on the PMI scale), with notable improvement in new orders. Copper prices are another indicator that the Chinese economy may have bottomed out. A vigorous rebound in copper prices in recent weeks could be indicating that China is stockpiling the industrial metal for new building projects.

Sometimes overlooked in China's growing shadow, Japan's economic situation is also being tested lately. After some post-tsunami reconstruction related growth over the last few quarters, the Japanese economy has seen some signs of a slowdown lately. The preliminary Q3 GDP reading showed its first contraction in five quarters and it will post the finalized reading on December 9. Industrial production figures have also been flagging in recent months, though there was a surprise upturn in the initial October reading. The Bank of Japan has cut its economic assessment, stating the pick-up in the economy has paused and predicting that the domestic economy will level off for a while before returning to mild recovery. To ensure the economy doesn't slip further the BOJ has been expanding its asset purchase program, which now stands at ¥80T, and has indicated it can do more to offset weak exports to its struggling trading partners.

A major difficulty in resetting the Japanese economy to a growth path has been the constant churn in government leadership. The country has gone through six leaders in as many years, and the current PM, Mr. Noda, has called a snap election for December 16, eight months before it was required. The policies of Noda's DPJ have not found popular support and his party has fallen to third place in the polls. Though Noda and his opponents are both calling for a more activist BOJ, they have notable policy differences, particularly on Japanese militarism. The opposition LDP led by Shinzo Abe is polling in first place but may not be able to seize a clear majority in a polity that has become more factious in the last decade. Thus the LDP may have to throw in with the upstart nationalist Japan Restoration Party which is now running second in the polls. This would push the LDP, which is already running on the principles of greater national security and collective self-defense even further to the right, ratcheting up Sino-Japan tensions that are already at their worst level in years. An LDP/Restoration Party coalition would also give Restoration Party leader Shintaro Ishihara an opportunity to run for the PM spot against Abe, and on the outside chance Ishihara won, the People's Republic would react badly.

If elected to the top spot, Abe has pledged to take bold action to get Japan out of its two-decade funk and avert the threat of deflation. His plan includes pushing the central bank toward setting a 2 or 3% inflation target driven by unlimited monetary easing, and to compel the BOJ to purchase government construction bonds used to fund public works programs. Such radical ideas may win over a public that has been aching for a cure for Japan's long economic malaise, though other such efforts have failed to snap the country out of it in years past.

Staring into the Abyss

Ever since the Fed described economic models of the consequences of a bank collapse in 2008 that frightened Congress into passing the emergency TARP fund, central bankers around the world have been staring into the abyss. They staved off a great depression with trillions of dollars in stimulus that has only just begun to yield tenuous economic stability after four years. As the BOJ heads toward open ended stimulus, the Fed is preparing to make the first adjustment in its own unlimited quantitative easing program.

The Fed has been running its flexible QE3 program for a couple of months at the initial rate of $40B/month in MBS purchases, but the first course correction will have to come in December. At that time the Operation Twist maturity extension program will have run its course, taking $45B in monthly purchases of longer dated treasuries out of the equation. If Twist was left to expire with no replacement, it would be seen as a rollback of some fiscal accommodation, so the Fed is expected to expand the open ended QE3 program with a similar monthly purchase of treasuries in addition to the $40B in MBS. The natural time frame for this announcement would be the December FOMC meeting (Dec. 11-12) which is the next one that includes a press conference and economic revisions. Alternatively, the Fed could further extend Twist for another six months or a year. Any deviation from providing a full replacement for Twist would be a shock to the markets.

Once the flexible nature of the QE3 program is tested and put into action in January, the FOMC meetings will become more about the communication policy than ever. With an eye toward the eventual withdrawal of stimulus, a refined communication strategy will be key, and the Fed is moving steadily toward replacing the calendar based guidance with forward guidance based on economic outcomes. Multiple Fed governors and Presidents have already indicated that they would like to see some economic triggers for rate policy, particularly an employment threshold that could signal the start of the unwinding of accommodation. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, for example, has suggested that the central bank should maintain near-zero rates until unemployment falls to 6.5% and as long as inflation stays below 2.5%. The FOMC minutes and public speeches show there is still significant debate over what those targets should be, so it appears the Fed will not be ready to roll out the new forward guidance format at the December meeting. The next two meetings after that will be in late January (Jan 29-30) and then in March, which will include a quarterly press conference.

Another consideration for 2013 will be the make-up of the FOMC voting membership. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who has been a consistent dissenter this year, will rotate out of the voting membership and be replaced by a slightly more dovish slate of Fed Presidents. The most hawkish voice on the FOMC in 2013 will be St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who, unlike Lacker, is not likely to dissent against QE3 now that it is in place, though he did not initially support it on concerns it may trigger premature inflation. Bullard has shown he will instead question the details of the doves' plans. In his most recent statements, Bullard suggested the thresholds for rate policy changes should be based on payroll growth rather than unemployment, and that $25B in QE3 treasury purchases per month would be equivalent to the Twist operations (which involve both $45B in buying and $38B in selling operations), about half of what the Fed doves are proposing.

The Abyss Stares Back

The central bank stimulus programs have bought some time for fiscal authorities to get their budgets in order, which is still a work in progress in Europe and especially the US. All the stimulus money poured into the effort has yielded middling results, with data still mixed.

The US housing market, which was improving even before the launch of QE3, got another shot in the arm from the Fed returning to MBS purchases. Demand for homes in the US has climbed while supply remains tight, and home prices have risen for six consecutive months. This could create a wealth effect for some homeowners who have been waiting for price appreciation to return, and also benefit homeowners who have been underwater on their mortgages. Given the healing going on in the housing market, its not entirely surprising to see US consumer confidence at a 4 year high.

Industrial data have been more mixed lately. Improvements in durable goods orders indicate that so far companies are not completely hunkered down on Fiscal Cliff worries. The November ISM manufacturing reading was very concerning, however, as it fell into contraction and hit its worst level in over two years. In fact, the last time this index hit this level, unemployment was above 9%.

Unemployment crept below 8% in the last two monthly readings, which in part helped propel President Obama to a second term, but concerns about the Fiscal Cliff and temporary impacts from Hurricane Sandy may cause the jobless rate to head north again. The next employment report, due out on December 7, will reflect the temporary layoffs caused by the "superstorm," whose impact was already measured in the poor November same store sales posted by chain retailers. Temporary factors can only be blamed for so long before elevated unemployment will start eroding confidence readings again.

In Europe, the economy faces record high unemployment rates. The worst of it is in the peripheral nations where joblessness is as high as 25%, but the core nations have their problems too, with France unemployment above 10%, its worst level in over a decade. European industrial production readings also continue to be dismal, exhibiting contraction for much of 2012. Even the strongest of the Euro Zone economies, Germany, is starting to feel the ill effects of the debt crisis. German PMI manufacturing has experienced nine straight months of contraction, with exports hurt by persistent strength in the euro, and confidence readings are also running low.

The Arab Cliff

Uncertainty is also rampant in the Middle East. Crude oil prices experienced more volatility in late November as Israel's conflict with Hamas flared up, and some Arab league nations called for using oil as a weapon against Israel. If the tentative ceasefire is broken, oil supplies could be pinched. This may be a hot topic for OPEC delegates holding their semi-annual meeting in Vienna on December 12, especially if Israel's skirmish with Hamas was only a prelude to action against their sponsors in Iran.

The escalating Syrian civil war and the renewed mass protests in Egypt also bear close attention. Europe appears to be growing more inclined to intervene in Syria as the humanitarian crisis grows and NATO ally Turkey expresses deep concerns about the conflict spilling over its border or emboldening Kurdish rebels to escalate their own efforts for sovereignty. The latest US statement on Syria declared that the Assad regime unleashing chemical weapons on its people would be a "red line" though the State Department declined to detail what response it would trigger. Meanwhile a return to chaotic street protests in Cairo could upset oil markets and raise concerns about the security of the key Suez shipping lane as it did during the outset of the Arab Spring.

Another wildcard to be considered in the region is the failing health of the Saudi ruler King Abdullah. The King, now 88, was reportedly placed on life support for some time after undergoing spinal surgery in November. In the event of his death, Crown Prince Salman, 76, will assume the throne, and could possibly be the last son of the founder of the modern kingdom to do so. After Salman, who replaced two of his brothers who died of old age in the crown price post, the third generation of princes may be called upon to rule. Either of these transitions could be the spark that finally brings the Arab Spring to Saudi Arabia, potentially destabilizing the world's biggest oil exporter.

The Short Version

As the US economy stagnates in the grip of uncertainty about fiscal policy and Europe slips back into recession as it tries to balance its own policy, emerging markets are sputtering along waiting for their trading partners to recover. Still, after four difficult years, global markets are leaning toward a recovery bias supported by massive accommodation.

If Greece and Cyprus can be squared away this month, Europe may experience a brief period of equanimity, and the ECB will be dormant until the Spanish sovereign issue comes to a head. Other difficult matters are still looming in the background for Europe, including the deadlock on the EU budget and the implementation of banking supervision and capitalization rules that have been punted to next year.

In Washington , the long awaited election left the status quo. Congressional leaders and the President don't want to throttle a nascent recovery, but the question is just how they will go about defusing the Fiscal Cliff bomb. If a bargain is not struck until the final days of December, markets might not wait to react negatively. Markets may also frown upon another "kick the can" solution, which contributed to the S&P sovereign downgrade last year. The framework of any deal also has to be firm enough to preclude Congress from dismantling or weakening the deal in the years ahead (Boehner is said to have proposed such a binding legal framework).

With US treasuries and German bunds running near record low yields, the "cleanest dirty shirts" aren't as attractive as they were earlier this year. As Europe copes with its problems, investors are warming to peripheral sovereign debt, helping to narrow sovereign spreads in Italy and Spain to their best level in two years. With stocks cheap by comparison, US and European bourses have notched solid gains, and the Chinese stock market may get some renewed attention next year as investors recalibrate for slower but still enviable growth.

Forex markets will be keyed in on the post-Greece bailout euro and the post-election yen. If the Greek debt buyback goes off without a hitch, current market short positioning in the EUR suggests it could follow its typical strengthening pattern in December, a month during which the euro has averaged over 1.7% in gains against the dollar in the last 12 years. The 1.3170 area is the critical resistance in the EUR/USD during the month. The yen has already weakened 3.5% since LDP opposition leader Abe stated that, if elected PM, he would force the BOJ into aggressive monetary easing. On a technical basis the upside for the USD/JPY has upside legs as long as 80.30/70 area holds, and analysts suggest any sustained break of the 85 level opens the door for momentum to carry the pair to 92 by early 2014 shepherded by more open handed monetary policy.

Headed into year end, if the global economy manages to stay perched on the cliff where its situated, it will have a good vantage point for the climb back up the peak from which it slid. In short, year five of the global crisis may be waypoint on the trek back toward more normal market conditions. Just don't look down.





 TradeTheNews

Dec 5 2012

Another fine day with solid profit, not much happening broad picture wise.

Session Time: Wed Dec 05 00:00:00 2012

[09:06] {dino} gm

01[09:06] {Threei}  FCX

01[09:06] {Threei}  acquired MMR for 20B

[09:07] {dino} mmr oil?

01[09:07] {Threei}  yeah

01[09:07] {Threei}  FCX returns to its roots

01[09:08] {Threei}  started out as energy

[09:08] {thomcbell} yes and PXP

[09:09] {thomcbell} huge acquisition for FCX

[09:09] {thomcbell} size wise 

[09:09] {cipher} gm

01[09:09] {Threei}  cipher :)

01[09:10] {Threei}  rofl, phrase right from nemo's skull:

01[09:10] {Threei}  My idea of "help from above" is a sniper from the roof

[09:10] {ese} morning..........

[09:10] {ese} fcx

01[09:10] {Threei}  ese :)

[09:11] {nemo} channeling me, are you?

01[09:13] {Threei}  here is who does, nemo: http://goo.gl/S6wd2

01[09:18] {Threei}  come on, don't tell me you didn't feel like you could have written this

[09:19] {nemo} yeah...saw that 25 years ago

01[09:20] {Threei}  cranky this morning, aren't we

[09:20] {nemo} not at all, just stating a fact

01[09:21] {Threei}  you should've added "saw that on Facebook 25 years ago"

[09:21] {nemo} ?

[09:21] {Will49} gm

[09:21] {nemo} put the bottle down Vad!

01[09:21] {Threei}  will :)

01[09:22] {Threei}  sigh... never mind

01[09:22] {Threei}  my sense of humor is not from not for this planet

01[09:22] {Threei}  fortunately, I don't give a flying sternutation

[09:23] {Will49} FCX?

01[09:24] {Threei}  bought MMR

[09:24] {Will49} not suggesting a trade, just curious

[09:24] {Will49} ahhhh

01[09:24] {Threei}  will be at some point, just not at the open

[09:26] {Beau} good morning

[09:26] {robbers} Ese, I sent you a PM via DCC....

01[09:26] {Threei}  beau :)

01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .75 break

01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .85 

01[09:32] {Threei}  no worky

[09:32] {ese} hey robbers......were do i find the dcc...its not showing up on the top of my screen

[09:32] {robbers} in the window to the left.

01[09:33] {Threei}  rinse

01[09:33] {Threei}  grrr

[09:34] {cipher} SCSS L .75

[09:34] {ese} L fcx .48 sm

01[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .20 break

01[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

01[09:35] {Threei}  target 1:2

01[09:36] {Threei}  1:1

01[09:36] {Threei}  1:2, out

[09:37] {cipher} out scss flat

[09:37] {Will49} tks Vad +.16

01[09:37] {Threei}  :)

[09:38] {cipher} scss l .30

[09:39] {patel} thanks Vad on GDX :)

01[09:39] {Threei}  yw

[09:39] {patel} FB is making me want to puke....

[09:40] {thomcbell} FB at pivot 

01[09:40] {Threei}  scare blue, ese got profitable one on FCX despite late entry

01[09:40] {Threei}  FB, I just hate this kind of things

[09:40] {nemo} should get to 33ish

01[09:40] {Threei}  got it right, got rinsed by couple cents

[09:40] {patel} i know

01[09:41] {Threei}  aside of profit/loss considerations, this kind makes you question your discipline

01[09:41] {Threei}  next time you get tempted to blow your stop

01[09:41] {Threei}  and it works

01[09:41] {Threei}  and you start blowing them every time

[09:41] {patel} i agree

01[09:41] {Threei}  and then that one comes and destroys your account

[09:42] {cipher} out scss -.12

01[09:42] {Threei}  so... discipline tramps conviction

01[09:42] {Threei}  trumps?

[09:44] {ese} wasn't a late entry..........got filled .25 higher than when i tried to get in.......stock is swampted

01[09:44] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break

01[09:44] {Threei}  wow... are you using market orderd???

[09:44] {ese} i'm up .40 now..........dino would be proud

[09:45] {ese} was up .40

[09:45] {dino} i am

01[09:45] {Threei}  (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): It is hard to conduct rational negotiations with many Republican members

01[09:45] {Threei}  I am sure

[09:46] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.91 break if holding 46

[09:46] {ese} stop .00

01[09:47] {Threei}  seriously ese... market order on a hot stock at the open is a form of financial suicide

[09:47] {thomcbell} target is 45.50 for me 

[09:47] {ese} stopped .99

[09:47] {dino} but ese i never use market orders

[09:47] {thomcbell} small position 

[09:47] {ese} +.51

[09:47] {dino} gj

01[09:47] {Threei}  wtg but I am concerned

[09:47] {ese} ya 400shs

[09:47] {patel} target on SLW

01[09:48] {Threei}  not sure

01[09:48] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .86 for now

[09:48] {thomcbell} wow aapl is a mess again

[09:48] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1

01[09:48] {Threei}  it feels like possible plunger to me...

01[09:49] {Threei}  let's try for 1:3

01[09:49] {Threei}  good one on LVS tbell

[09:49] {ese} it wasn't that much of a gamble.......with that news this thing was always goin up

01[09:49] {Threei}  1:1

01[09:49] {Threei}  ese, trade iotself, maybe - but market order?

01[09:50] {Threei}  25 cents slippage

01[09:50] {Threei}  yikes

[09:50] {dino} well, risk is our business

[09:50] {robbers} out slw, thanks.

01[09:50] {Threei}  1:2

01[09:51] {Threei}  yw

[09:51] {ese} ya true.......am not disagreeing with you........on some other news or stock.......would be no where near it

[09:51] {ese} was prepared to exit quick.........had the stop in imediately

[09:52] {Will49} slw 1:2 out tks Vad

01[09:52] {Threei}  well, question is, how much were you prepared to chase from your intended entry?

01[09:52] {Threei}  yw will

01[09:52] {Threei}  was it really 25 cents?

[09:53] {dino} 07 red

[09:53] {thomcbell} lvs 1:2

01[09:53] {Threei}  if less, why not limit order at the price to which you are willing to chase?

[09:53] {ese} hmmmmmmm ya good thought

01[09:53] {Threei}  SLW 1:3, out

01[09:53] {Threei}  say, your l,imit of tolerance is 10 cvents of chasing,

01[09:53] {Threei}  stock trades at .25,

[09:54] {patel} thanks vad :)

01[09:54] {Threei}  you hit it with limit buy order .35

01[09:54] {Threei}  yw

01[09:54] {Threei}  it will swipe best available prices all the way from .25 to .35

01[09:54] {Threei}  but it won't chase higher

[09:54] {patel} I been away from trading for little over 3 years now. I visited your website once a week for the past 3 years. 

01[09:55] {Threei}  with market order at the open you are asking for a fill at the top of the spike

[09:55] {patel} Finally, I wanted to try trading and work a full time job. 

[09:55] {robbers} Welcome back!

01[09:55] {Threei}  cool beans patel, so far it works :)

[09:56] {dino} gl patel

[09:56] {patel} thanks

[09:56] {Will49} yes good luck

[09:56] {thomcbell} lvs 1:3

[09:56] {patel} I been in the chat before. 

[09:56] {patel} back in 2009

[09:56] {dino} the jungle is enticing

01[09:56] {Threei}  I knew the nick was familiar

01[09:57] {Threei}  my memory doesn't really go much more than 20 min back though

[09:57] {patel} haha

[09:57] {patel} yeah i was shocked

[09:57] {patel} when u gave me the same nickname and password. 

01[09:57] {Threei}  not me

[09:57] {Will49} that's cause you're a human bean Vad

01[09:57] {Threei}  system

01[09:57] {Threei}  lol will

01[09:57] {Threei}  if you in database, it does it automatically

01[09:58] {Threei}  big brother wathcing... rememering you... tracking you down... and salp;ping you with the same nick

[09:58] {thomcbell} flat lvs 45.55

01[09:58] {Threei}  beaituful trade tbell

01[09:59] {Threei}  hit your target exactly

[09:59] {thomcbell} tu - 2x

[09:59] {thomcbell} for teaching #1

01[09:59] {Threei}  09:47] {thomcbell} target is 45.50 for me

[10:00] {dino} mfrm hl l .65

[10:00] {nemo} numbers?

01[10:00] {Threei}  good

01[10:00] {Threei}  both

01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) OCT FACTORY ORDERS: 0.8% V 0.0%E

01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 54.7 V 53.5E

01[10:04] {Threei}  wow... selling into good numbers

01[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .50 break hl

[10:04] {ese} gotta go all........it's my Christmas Fina Arts Night concert tonight.......will and vad starts at 7:pm at Vic High.......robbers still couln't find find that dcc....don't have a colmn on the left with  Mibbit.com

01[10:05] {Threei}  If holds  .60 

01[10:05] {Threei}  take care ese

01[10:07] {Threei}  1:1

[10:13] {dino} mfrm to b/e

[10:14] {dino} stopped

[10:16] {thomcbell} FCX feels like 33 break if holding 33.14 1/2 lot 

01[10:18] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner: We made a good-faith offer to President Obama, now we need a reply from the White House

[10:18] {dino} hov .01 trig l

[10:19] {thomcbell} 1:1 fcx 

01[10:19] {Threei}  nice

[10:22] {thomcbell} stop to 32.91 on fcx 

[10:22] {thomcbell} due to vol

[10:24] {thomcbell} darn fcx

[10:27] {dino} bidu sm l .01 stop lod

01[10:30] {Threei}  - Reiterates that raising revenue via closing tax loopholes is acceptible, raising taxes is not. - House Majority Leader Cantor (R-VA): The House Republicans have not sat down and spoken with the President about specifics

[10:31] {dino} bidu stop -.36

[10:33] {dino} rinsed

[10:41] {dino} ndx blood

[10:47] {dino} gco hl l .2999

01[10:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break

01[10:53] {Threei}  If holds  .80 

01[10:55] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break

01[10:55] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

01[10:56] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .84

01[10:56] {Threei}  target 1:3

01[10:58] {Threei}  no go SLW

[10:59] {thomcbell} was there some sort of data point on aapl?  this is unreal

01[10:59] {Threei}  not that I know of

01[11:00] {Threei}  1:1 FCX

01[11:00] {Threei}  wow

01[11:00] {Threei}  (US) Pentagon discloses that it has been informed by the budget office to start planning for the automatic sequester cuts - financial press- Pentagon highlights that had not been told to plan for cuts earlier

01[11:00] {Threei}  unlesds it's a bullying trick, they really prepare for the cliff possibility

[11:03] {patel} so once you get your 1:1 on half

[11:03] {patel} do u set the stop to b/e

01[11:04] {Threei}  just under

01[11:04] {Threei}  .89

[11:04] {patel} okay

01[11:04] {Threei}  http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions

[11:05] {patel} thats what I thought just wanted to make sure. 

[11:05] {patel} thanks

[11:20] {dino} dds drop

01[11:24] {Threei}  (US) President Obama: Housing is coming back and US consumer confidence is high - address to business roundtable- Economy worldwide remains soft; Europe likely to be weak for some time - "Rooting" for US businesses to succeed - White House Budget proposal reflected a balanced and responsible approach; prepared to make difficult spending decisions, but we "can't cut our way to prosperity." - "we can probably resolve this in about a week, its not that complicated." The hold up right now is that Speaker Boehner has taken a stance against tax rate increases for the wealthy. Closing loopholes is just not enough. - It is bad strategy to put off addressing the debt ceiling until next year; I will 'not play that game' if Congress wants to push the country closer to default by negotiating with the debt ceiling. }- There is time to deal with tax reform next year.

01[11:25] {Threei}  we "can't cut our way to prosperity." {--- but we can spend our way to prosperity?

01[11:25] {Threei}  sigh

[11:51] {dino} scss hl l .99

[12:01] {thomcbell} any clue what that was all about?

01[12:02] {Threei}  ?

[12:02] {thomcbell} this last push higher

[12:02] {dino} ?

[12:03] {thomcbell} disregard

[12:03] {thomcbell} pretty explosive move that continues here

[12:06] {nemo} this is the start of the santa clause rally

[12:08] {dino} its the "we can probably resolve this..."

[12:08] {nemo} spy going for the 50 sma at 142.25ish

01[12:10] {Threei}  exactly dino

01[12:10] {Threei}  next talking head comes out and says "we are nowhere close" and rally evaporates in a blink of eye

[12:10] {dino} god has spoken

[12:16] {dino} uthr hl l .50

[12:19] {dino} wdc spike

[12:21] {dino} scss stop -.07

[12:23] {dino} out uthr .74, +.24

[12:28] {dino} wdc hl s .80 stop .01

01[12:28] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  164 break hl

01[12:28] {Threei}  If holds  .10 

[12:32] {nemo} europe closed flat

[12:33] {nemo} this should be the run to the 50 if it breaks 142 and holds above

[12:36] {dino} cov wdc .50, +.30

[12:36] {Will49} sorry Vad, just stepped away for a few minutes...was GLD invalidated?

01[12:36] {Threei}  yeah

[12:37] {Will49} kind of obvious eh?

[12:37] {nemo} you're not getting spy capitulation volume up here

[12:39] {dino} out gco .02, +.67

[12:41] {thomcbell} GCO molto bene signori

[12:41] {dino} ty

[12:44] {Beau} patience personified, dino

01[12:46] {Threei}  let's keep an eye on GLD again

01[12:46] {Threei}  same idea

01[12:47] {Threei}  after all, VWAP is 163.78 {G}

[12:48] {dino} lol

[12:48] {Will49} zing...

[12:49] {Will49} not a symbol

[12:49] {dino} bazinga

[12:49] {Will49} only a symbol of Vad's humour

[12:49] {Will49} or "humor" for the rest of you

[12:51] {nemo} oh, just checked, 50 was at .05, that, may be the top

01[13:01] {Threei}  so, in theory GLD should give us 1:2 before finding support?

[13:02] {dino} it should search out that vwap

[13:02] {dino} they are like magnets

01[13:02] {Threei}  trying to compare it to my chart read

01[13:02] {Threei}  I'd go for 1:3

01[13:02] {Threei}  VWAP says 1:2

[13:05] {patel} VWAP a symbol

01[13:06] {Threei}  indicator

[13:06] {patel} ok

[13:06] {nemo} it stands for Vad's Warped Attitude and P.,..

01[13:06] {Threei}  hmmm

[13:06] {patel} volime weighted avg pr

01[13:06] {Threei}  and P?

[13:06] {nemo} couldn't come up with anything quick and witty

[13:06] {nemo} gives us something to work on though

01[13:07] {Threei}  no kidding

[13:09] {dino} vads weight adds pounds

01[13:09] {Threei}  that's so... cruel... and untrue... sniff sniff

[13:10] {dino} :)

01[13:10] {Threei}  any more weight loss, I could hide behind 2-years old birch tree

[13:10] {dino} hmmmm

[13:10] {nemo} 2 year old obese birch tree?

01[13:11] {Threei}  ok... behind broom if nemo girlfriend dismounted it

[13:11] {nemo} that would be a compliment...you forget my background

01[13:11] {Threei}  but I wanted to compliment you

01[13:11] {Threei}  how else can I hurt you?

[13:12] {Will49} you're fom the broomstick girls area nemo

[13:12] {Will49} from

[13:12] {Will49} the ones they used to burn

[13:13] {nemo} I'm outta here have a nice day

01[13:15] {Threei}  huh

01[13:15] {Threei}  did we manage to insult him successfully?

[13:15] {Will49} looks like

01[13:16] {Threei}  can't be

[13:16] {Will49} t was the girlfriend thing

01[13:16] {Threei}  no one ever achieved that

[13:16] {Will49} we know his hot button now

[13:17] {dino} orly hl l .17

01[13:21] {Threei}  die already GLD

01[13:22] {Threei}  sheesh

[13:22] {dino} wdchl s .65

[13:22] {patel} looking for 1:2 to 1:3 on GLD right

01[13:22] {Threei}  yes

01[13:33] {Threei}  (US) Republican Congressional Aide: There have been no staff level fiscal cliff discussions between Congress and the White House in the last 24 hours- There are no plans for talks today

[13:35] {dino} jwn drop

[13:35] {dino} hl l .40

[13:35] {dino} orly stop -.15

[13:38] {thomcbell} big move there on rimm

[13:40] {dino} jwn stop -.30

01[13:41] {Threei}  1:1

[13:43] {dino} jwn, another rinse, that makes 3 today

01[13:47] {Threei}  ok, made up my mind, will try for 1:3

[13:47] {cc_8} Honeywell Turbo Tech to Provide for China's Leading SUV, Pickup ManufacturerPosted on: Wednesday, December 5, 2012 - 1:11pmHoneywell's (NYSE: HON) Turbo Technologies will provide its diesel VNT technology to Great Wall Motors, China's leading SUV and pickup manufacturer.

01[13:48] {Threei}  LOL, twitter: Huffington approach to business news: Business is bad. Taxes are good. Elizabeth Warren was sent by God. God does not exist.�

[13:57] {dino} jwn hl l .07

[13:58] {dino} wdc to .41

[14:00] {dino} cover wdc .37, +.27

01[14:03] {Threei}  scalpers win

[14:11] {dino} oeh spike

[14:12] {thomcbell} long setup FB 27.46 break if holding 27.36 

[14:16] {thomcbell} short setup rimm 11.88 break if holding 12 - unsure if a borrow avail

[14:19] {thomcbell} Vad the larger pattern is interesting me on FB - 0.46 wicks and intraday downtrend line about the same level 

01[14:23] {Threei}  you looking at 1 min?

01[14:23] {Threei}  I mesan, where are wicks?

[14:24] {dino} on candles

01[14:24] {Threei}  lol

[14:24] {thomcbell} 10 min on top of 1 min is what i look at on all the suspects

[14:24] {thomcbell} FB 1:1

[14:25] {thomcbell} kind of

01[14:25] {Threei}  yup

[14:25] {thomcbell} rimm invalidated - never triggered

[14:25] {patel} nice job on FB 

[14:26] {thomcbell} tu

[14:29] {thomcbell} vad take a look at Rimm - i think there will be a short trade somewhere in here

[14:30] {dino} its available

01[14:30] {Threei}  12 break...

01[14:30] {Threei}  could be

01[14:30] {Threei}  wait for bounce back

01[14:30] {Threei}  don't chase

[14:30] {dino} out jwn .50, +.43

[14:30] {thomcbell} nice one Dino

[14:31] {dino} thx

[14:35] {thomcbell} ive done nothing here on rimm FYI

01[14:36] {Threei}  well, it can be double top

01[14:36] {Threei}  so, break of 12 is a short setup

01[14:36] {Threei}  if no new high

[14:36] {patel} 6 cents risk

[14:39] {thomcbell} FB stop to 27.53 

[14:46] {thomcbell} FB 1:2

[14:48] {thomcbell} FB stop to 27.63 on balance 

[14:48] {thomcbell} FB 1:3

[14:48] {dino} gj

[14:48] {thomcbell} made another sale

01[14:48] {Threei}  beautiful

[14:49] {Will49} congrats

[14:49] {patel} fabulous :)

[14:49] {thomcbell} 1:4 and out

[14:49] {Will49} wowee

[14:52] {dino} nice

[14:55] {thomcbell} tu

[14:57] {thomcbell} tibx long setup 19.90 break if holding 19.80 

[15:11] {thomcbell} tibx 1:1

[15:12] {Will49} you're on fire today tbell

[15:12] {dino} out tibx .03, +.12 ty tbell

01[15:12] {Threei}  killer plays

[15:12] {patel} good job on TIBX.

[15:13] {patel} I put a buy stop order 

[15:13] {patel} it never filled. 

[15:13] {dino} jwn l .70

[15:13] {patel} 19.91 with a stop price of 19.92

[15:13] {thomcbell} duh 

[15:13] {thomcbell} that stinks 

[15:14] {patel} yeah

[15:14] {patel} anyone use Laser

01[15:14] {Threei}  yes

[15:14] {dino} how dud that not fill?

[15:14] {dino} did

01[15:14] {Threei}  but I prefer manual executions

[15:14] {patel} no idea. 

[15:15] {patel} I just started with Laser

[15:15] {patel} so this was the 1st time I set that type of order up 

[15:15] {patel} normally I do manual executions

[15:16] {dino} odd

[15:17] {patel} does anyone else use buy stop in this room?

[15:17] {dino} i do a lot

[15:17] {dino} ese does too

[15:17] {patel} how many cents above the break do u typically go out. 

[15:18] {dino} .01, usually fills there or cent or 2 higher

[15:18] {dino} thicky like tibx right on it

[15:19] {patel} it jumped pretty quickly from 19.91 to 19.94

[15:19] {Will49} so you use OMS on laser to do that dino?

[15:19] {dino} i'm not laser

[15:19] {Will49} ah

[15:20] {patel} yeah

[15:20] {patel} I use OMS

[15:20] {Will49} been burned a few times putting hard stop on with laser

[15:20] {patel} BIDU just took out yesterday's lows

[15:20] {Will49} only use it when forced to leave the room

[15:20] {patel} yeaH

[15:21] {patel} I wont use OMS in the future. 

[15:21] {Will49} like getting a UPS shipment this morning

[15:21] {dino} i use hard stops about 70% of time

[15:21] {Will49} interesting

[15:21] {dino} on gappers i cannot, suicide

[15:22] {dino} disca spike

[15:24] {dino} news?

01[15:24] {Threei}  not that I see

[15:25] {dino} nor i

[15:25] {dino} sm s .00 break

[15:26] {thomcbell} going to still watch this tibx for another play 

[15:31] {dino} disca bstop to .80

[15:31] {thomcbell} that could be the handle there in tibx Vad

[15:32] {dino} to .72

[15:32] {dino} cov disca .72, +.28

[15:34] {dino} jwn to .80

[15:35] {dino} out +.09

[15:37] {dino} \bidu, sina nnew 52 wk lows

[15:37] {dino} i really need to look at keyboard when i type

[15:44] {dino} pretty good drop going on

[15:52] {dino} fcx app lod

[15:55] {dino} ok, calling it a day. thx all

[15:55] {Will49} Cheers guys

[15:56] {patel} take care guys

[15:56] {patel} pretty nice green day for me. 

[15:57] {patel} only if the TIBX would have executed would have been an awesome day

[15:57] {Will49} wtg

01[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening

01[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow

[15:57] {thomcbell} good night guys

[15:59] {dino} wow dji -65 in last few minutes

Dec 4 2012

Decent day with maybe not as spectacular as yesterday but still solid profits.

Session Time: Tue Dec 04 00:00:00 2012

[08:57] {dino} gm

01[08:57] {Threei}  dino :)

[09:01] {cipher} gm

01[09:03] {Threei}  cipher :)

[09:10] {scottie} good morning

01[09:10] {Threei}  scottie :)

[09:18] {Will49} Good morning :)

[09:20] {Beau} good morning all

01[09:20] {Threei}  will, beau :)

01[09:23] {Threei}  TSLA Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) probing firm over use of foreign trade zone status

01[09:24] {Threei}  what is it with alt energy companies??

[09:25] {dino} ueps drop, fbi investigation

01[09:26] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Nov ISM New York expected at 09:45 ET (14:45 GMT)- No analysts estimates **The Oct reading was a 12-month low with responses collected before Hurricane Sandy, so Sandy had no impact on the reading

01[09:29] {Threei}  LVS and FB on watch

01[09:30] {Threei}  FB, wait for bounce to short

[09:32] {dino} ueps hl l .65 risky

[09:33] {nemo} wow...if dino calls it risky...sheesh

01[09:33] {Threei}  hehe

01[09:33] {Threei}  it must have teeth, machine gun and grenade launcher

01[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .10 break

01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

01[09:34] {Threei}  change to .20

01[09:35] {Threei}  change to .25

[09:35] {nemo} pivot .63

01[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .35 

01[09:36] {Threei}  no go

01[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break

01[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .30 

01[09:38] {Threei}  heh

01[09:38] {Threei}  1:1 but good luck getting it

01[09:38] {Threei}  or exiting, lol

01[09:38] {Threei}  that was weird teleportation both ways

01[09:39] {Threei}  FB rinse

[09:39] {scottie} too fast to take 1:1, out at .35 :(

01[09:39] {Threei}  wow... I can't believe you got in

[09:39] {dino} ueps stop

[09:40] {scottie} hit the button when it was at .20 and order filled at .18

01[09:41] {Threei}  let's see if FB gives double top

01[09:42] {Threei}  around .30

01[09:45] {Threei}  waiting out ISM now

01[09:45] {Threei}  (US) Nov ISM New York: 52.5 v 45.9 prior

[09:45] {cipher} sina l.80

01[09:45] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .90 break

01[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  36 

[09:46] {dino} ueps hl l .20 stop lod

01[09:47] {Threei}  stop .96 now

01[09:47] {Threei}  1:1

[09:48] {cipher} out sina .58 -.22

01[09:50] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  27 break

[09:50] {cipher} trip l .72

[09:51] {cipher} out trip .00 +.28

01[09:51] {Threei}  Invalidated  

01[09:52] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .40 break hl

01[09:52] {Threei}  If holds  .50 

01[09:52] {Threei}  target 1:3

01[09:55] {Threei}  change to .50 break

[09:56] {dino} ueps stopped again, done w/it for now

01[09:58] {Threei}  target is still 1:3

01[10:01] {Threei}  scratch GLD

01[10:01] {Threei}  doesn't act right

01[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .65 break

[10:02] {nemo} lvs

01[10:02] {Threei}  If holds  .55 

01[10:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .55 break

01[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  .45 

01[10:03] {Threei}  target 1:3

01[10:04] {Threei}  1:1

01[10:04] {Threei}  FCX target 1:2

[10:05] {dino} gco hl l .02

01[10:06] {Threei}  LVS scalpers win

01[10:07] {Threei}  I could swear this thing was going to rocket

01[10:07] {Threei}  nothing but clear sky to about .90

01[10:07] {Threei}  must be a rinse

01[10:07] {Threei}  yup

01[10:07] {Threei}  *&^#)^

01[10:07] {Threei}  FCX 1:1

01[10:08] {Threei}  LVS 1:2, add your own expletive

01[10:08] {Threei}  1:3, add another

[10:10] {dino} out gco .50, +.48

01[10:10] {Threei}  wtg

[10:10] {dino} ty

[10:11] {dino} whats up w/sina, bidu?

[10:12] {nemo} news story about fraudullent chinese stocks tainting everything

01[10:12] {Threei}  right, not stock specific

01[10:12] {Threei}  rather country specific

[10:12] {dino} thx

[10:16] {thomcbell} very nice on lvs vad

01[10:16] {Threei}  if not count the second half rinse

[10:16] {nemo} i'm chopped liver

[10:16] {dino} bidu sm l .50 trig

[10:17] {thomcbell} u culled a nice setup 

[10:18] {thomcbell} - this market is a prime time for  "trade what you see" 

[10:18] {nemo} er....

[10:18] {nemo} what market isn't?

[10:19] {thomcbell} true but those who arent doing it right now havent a chance

01[10:21] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break

[10:24] {dino} bidu stop -.30

01[10:25] {Threei}  1:1

[10:27] {dino} bidu rinse-r-oni

[10:29] {Will49} tks Vad +.14

[10:29] {Will49} too soon:(

01[10:30] {Threei}  a little... no news

01[10:30] {Threei}  looking at fiscal cliff negotiations, I see none

01[10:31] {Threei}  Obama simply wants to finish off republicans by going over the cliff, putting blame on them, then cutting taxes for under 250K

01[10:32] {Threei}  and since broad public pays no attention and has no idea whnat's really going on, it will work

[10:32] {Will49} talk about throwing the country under the bus!

01[10:32] {Threei}  if this theory is right, we need to trade accordingly - short side will prevail for the December

01[10:33] {Threei}  in his eyes he is saving it, will... by slaying dragons

[10:33] {Will49} deluded by power

[10:33] {dino} dk, just trade the tape

01[10:34] {Threei}  tape doesn't tell you much these days unless you put it in context of the background

01[10:34] {Threei}  by background I mean the developing story

[10:34] {dino} if that were true, i wouldn't be here. most things i trade i don't even know name or what they do

01[10:35] {Threei}  lol

01[10:35] {Threei}  it's true for individual names

01[10:35] {Threei}  I am talking about mnarket in general

[10:35] {dino} synt drop

[10:35] {robbers} out fcx @ .43, thanks.

01[10:35] {Threei}  yw

[10:35] {Will49} good patience robbers

[10:35] {dino} lately 3i, its just noise, less i hear better i do. 

[10:36] {dino} radio on, tv off

[10:36] {Will49} yeah... jazz

01[10:39] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .30 break

01[10:39] {Threei}  hl

01[10:39] {Threei}  .c .40

[10:47] {dino} rrc drop 

[10:48] {dino} hl l .72 rrc

01[10:51] {Threei}  CAT should drop fast now

01[10:51] {Threei}  1:1

01[10:52] {Threei}  (US) US Rep Hoyer (D-MD) highlights that the GOP counterpropsal yesterday was lacking on details regarding specific deductions it would like to end in order to raise revenue

[10:52] {dino} out rrc .03, +.31

01[10:53] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Tarullo: More research is needed on large bank size; no comment on monetary policy- Notes that caution is needed regarding any return to Glass Steagall framework

01[10:53] {Threei}  I would be interested to hear why

[10:57] {nemo} Qs Finnies SPY sitting on weekly pivot, iwm at the 50 sma

[11:05] {scottie} volc l .50 ?

01[11:06] {Threei}  chart's rioght, SPY's dropping...

01[11:06] {Threei}  I think so if stays here and then SPY bounce props it above .50

[11:06] {scottie} then it shouldn't trigger ?

01[11:07] {Threei}  it would be nice, but this kind sometimes triggers as a matter of setting the trap

[11:09] {robbers} out cat at .9, thanks.

01[11:09] {Threei}  :)

[11:10] {robbers} Has ese been here today?

01[11:10] {Threei}  no

[11:12] {dino} cbrl hl l .70

[11:17] {dino} mlnx heck of a weekly chart

01[11:25] {Threei}  - The House Republican's fiscal cliff counter offer yesterday afternoon has met with a predictably tepid response from the Democratic side, with the White House calling the plan "lacking in balance." More interestingly, right-wing House conservatives are also attacking House Speaker Boehner for offering any new revenue at all, suggesting a split in the Republican camp.

01[11:26] {Threei}  who remembers serial disapponter GERN?

[11:26] {dino} me

[11:26] {nemo} yum

01[11:26] {Threei}  looked at it recently? :)

01[11:26] {Threei}  - Shares of Geron tanked last night after the firm said it would discontinue development of its brain cancer drug candidate and lay off around 40% of its workers. The firm said it would concentrate on developing blood cancer treatment imetelstat. GERN is down 29%.

[11:26] {dino} no

01[11:26] {Threei}  under 1

[11:27] {dino} wow

01[11:27] {Threei}  popped above

01[11:27] {Threei}  remember its heroic rallies, lol

01[11:27] {Threei}  "fountain of youth" was the headline sending it to triple in two days

01[11:31] {Threei}  Thousands without power on Vancouver Island this morning as wind warning continues

01[11:31] {Threei}  hmmm... there is some wind but nothing outstanding

01[11:31] {Threei}  maybe ese is without power?

[11:31] {Will49} blowing pretty good down here at clover point

01[11:33] {Threei}  yup, one of outages is in Oak Bay

[11:35] {Will49} had a couple of 80KM gusts at Sir James Douglas weather station

01[11:35] {Threei}  crap... I should have stay silent... light's flickering

[11:36] {Will49} too much vodka already

[11:39] {Will49} fyi nemo: tks for putting me onto freestockcharts. really adds another dimension

01[11:39] {Threei}  OK... I need to look at it

[11:39] {Will49} bought a second monitor just for them

01[11:39] {Threei}  you all get another dimension, I alone stay flat, one dimensional... feeling left behind

[11:40] {Will49} poor Vad :(

01[11:41] {Threei}  (EU) Vague rumors about a German ratings downgrade have circulated for the last two days in the "Twittersphere"- Markets have not reacted to the rumors but the velocity of the rumors have picked up today, with the speculation widening to potential downgrades of the remaining AAA rating Euro Zone nations, Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg (but not Finland). The rumors seem to stem from Moody's recent downgrade of France which was followed by a downgrade of the EFSF/ESM Aaa rating

[11:41] {Will49} flickering lights, no vodka and outdated charts

01[11:41] {Threei}  life's tough

[11:54] {dino} moodys investor services revised from stable to negative germany

01[11:54] {Threei}  that was on 7/23

[11:55] {dino} today according to doug kass real$

01[11:55] {Threei}  he is mixing something

[11:55] {nemo} what up with wmt today

[11:55] {dino} dk

01[11:56] {Threei}  7/23: Moodys revised outlook of Germany, Netherlands, and Luxembourg to negative from stable.

[11:56] {dino} hmmm

01[11:56] {Threei}  now we are talking about possible downgrade

[12:16] {dino} mlnx hl l .00

[12:28] {dino} out mlnx .70, +.70

[12:29] {Beau} dino, how wide a stop do you use with the mlnx type?

[12:30] {dino} .30-.35

[12:31] {dino} it was half lot

[12:31] {Beau} thx

[12:31] {dino} np

01[12:32] {Threei}  (US) President Obama: Reiterates not expecting to get 100% of everything he wants in negotiations, happy to look at changes in entitlement programs as part of deal- Reiterates no fiscal cliff deal without higher taxes on the rich - Notes that the economy should take off following a deal on the fiscal cliff - Cant agree on a deal that only has 'vague' revenue increases; Boehner deal remains 'out of balance'

01[12:45] {Threei}  Obama: eyes "end" or "fall" of 2013 for more comprehensive tax/entitlement reform that's just "not going to happen" in next 2 wks

01[12:45] {Threei}  anyone believes it's going to happen at all?

[12:46] {dino} gco hl l .75 stop .54

01[12:49] {Threei}  if SPY gathers strength and starts uptrending, watching LVS for .50 break

01[13:07] {Threei}  aparently not anymore

01[13:07] {Threei}  however...

01[13:07] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  164 break

01[13:12] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) and the Republican steering commitee have removed 3 deficit hawks from their seats on some committees - The HillJustin Amash (R-MI), Tim Huelskamp (R-KS), and Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) removed from their seats on commitees

01[13:12] {Threei}  huh

[13:22] {scottie} out .02, went to 1:1 tks Vad

01[13:30] {Threei}  :)

[13:34] {cc_8} Stocks Hitting 52-Week HighsPosted on: Tuesday, December 4, 2012 - 10:05am Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) shares gained 1.33% to create a new 52-week high of $35.16. Adobe is scheduled to announce major updates to Adobe® Creative Cloud™ 

[13:35] {scottie} FSC s .30 ?

01[13:35] {Threei}  probably... a bit too narrow for my taste

[13:36] {scottie} tks

[13:37] {dino} out gco ave .025, +.275

[13:47] {scottie} GPS l .90 ?

01[13:48] {Threei}  hl

01[13:48] {Threei}  can be kipmy

01[13:48] {Threei}  jumpy

[13:49] {dino} lol

[13:49] {scottie} missed entry

[13:51] {nemo} interesting, no capitulation volume spikes in spy on down bars

[13:51] {nemo} today that is

[13:52] {scottie} in .91

[13:57] {scottie} stop .84

01[13:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .30 break

01[13:58] {Threei}  If holds  .20 

[13:58] {nemo} market should pullback here

01[14:00] {Threei}  as if it could be any different, (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH): Obama's plan could not pass either Congress; Obama should provide a plan with more middle ground"

[14:04] {dino} they act like a bunch of kids trying to run the country

[14:05] {scottie} gps rinsed

[14:05] {dino} lmca drop

[14:07] {dino} sm l .89

[14:08] {dino} stop -.38

01[14:13] {Threei}  let's take scalp LVS

01[14:13] {Threei}  tiny as it is, SPY doesn't look right anymore

[14:17] {dino} lmca sm l .85

[14:21] {thomcbell} weird break ther eon fb

[14:38] {thomcbell} slw - short setup 36.20 break if holding 36.30

01[14:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .10 break hl

01[14:54] {Threei}  If holds  84 

01[15:05] {Threei}  1:1

01[15:07] {Threei}  1:2, out

01[15:07] {Threei}  nice and easy

[15:07] {Will49} tks Vad

[15:07] {scottie} +.20 tks Vad

01[15:07] {Threei}  :)

[15:23] {thomcbell} ccovered rest of slw here

01[15:26] {Threei}  good one

[15:28] {thomcbell} tu

[15:29] {nemo} C&H 15 min charts IWM SPY Finnies

[15:38] {nemo} jeez...gmcr today

[15:39] {nemo} gmcr

[15:39] {thomcbell} feel like FB is a short break at 27.40 Vad if holding 27.50 

01[15:39] {Threei}  I like it

[15:40] {nemo} vwap at .32

[15:40] {thomcbell} good point 

[15:41] {nemo} if market drops it'll go well, but...not sure, you're in congestion zones where they might like to hold the market

[15:41] {nemo} imo

[15:41] {thomcbell} it being a momentum favorite the move could be sizeable if "They" become spooked

[15:42] {nemo} just be ready for a bounce there

01[15:42] {Threei}  OK, I opened fsc

01[15:42] {Threei}  I see FB vwap at .32

[15:42] {nemo} hahahahahahahahah

01[15:42] {Threei}  what else should I watvch?

[15:42] {nemo} dead people?

[15:42] {dino} hey

01[15:42] {Threei}  nah, that's dino's

[15:43] {nemo} o.k. level of vodka drop in the bottle

01[15:43] {Threei}  why would I encroach his territory

[15:43] {nemo} geez dino..don't get panties in a bunch...sheesh

[15:44] {dino} lol

01[15:44] {Threei}  btw... vwao creeps up over last few hours

01[15:44] {Threei}  what does it tell us?

[15:45] {thomcbell} could be 2 sided too - lol

[15:45] {thomcbell} 0.40 or 0.50 

01[15:48] {Threei}  ok, anyone is up to educate me? what do I wacth on this site and how do I use this?? :)

[15:49] {dino} i use it for s & r levels and vawap atacks

01[15:50] {Threei}  so, FB indicates vwap at .32 and pivot at .63

01[15:50] {Threei}  what's the working assumption? that it's likey to retrace fronm .63, and attemot to touch .32?

[15:50] {dino} unless it makes a higher high

01[15:51] {Threei}  yeah, I am fine with all the ifs, buts and unlesses, just want to understand the baeline scenario

01[15:51] {Threei}  baseline

[15:51] {nemo} notice how it's been above vwap since 11:15 working assumption is it stays that way as vwap is support

[15:52] {dino} i'm still in lmca, ask nemo

[15:53] {nemo} it's bounced off it 4 times

[15:53] {dino} look lmca vwap keeps swatting it down

[15:54] {nemo} that is iffy 106.50 is resistance 38.2 retrace

[15:55] {dino} can't get there

[15:56] {nemo} lower high

[15:56] {nemo} but it was a bounce off vwap

[15:56] {dino} f#ck

[15:57] {nemo} btw...if you do a fib retrace from the 11/15 low to yesterday's high, you

[15:57] {nemo} you'll see it confluences right at 106.50ish

[15:58] {nemo} see that dino?

[15:58] {dino} yes

[15:58] {nemo} can't go long that puppy until it breaks 106.50

[15:58] {nemo} or you pick it up probably around 104.80-105

[15:58] {dino} in 104.85

01[15:59] {Threei}  OK guys, before you go, let me inspire you for a pleasant evening: http://goo.gl/lwI1I

[15:59] {nemo} take your profits like a man and gtfo!

01[15:59] {Threei}  decent day

01[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening, see you tomorrow

01[15:59] {Threei}  dino, time's running out

[15:59] {scottie} gn all, day off tomorrow, see you thursday

[15:59] {dino} out .65, +.80

01[15:59] {Threei}  whew

01[16:00] {Threei}  you don't want this overnight :)

[16:00] {dino} no

[16:00] {Will49} TTFN guys

[16:00] {dino} just pissed because i had 106.05 and was late

[16:01] {nemo} whoa, fat finger on the close lmce, lmca look at that

Dec 3 2012

Fantastic day with a lot of great trades, and real icing on a cake is below. You remember our recent warning that headlines about fiscal cliff were going to rule the market movements for the rest of the year. Well, this Catch of the Day had exploited just that by being at the right place at the right time:

15:00  (US) House Speaker Boehner (R-OH) makes counterproposal in letter to President Obama, claims plan would aim to save $2.2T over ten years 
- Plan includes: $1.4T in new spending cuts, $800B in new revenue - House GOP will not agree to higher tax rates. 
- Do not believe it would be helpful to propose entitlement program reforms in the near term 
- Proposals said to be based on Simson-Bowles Commission 

Session Time: Mon Dec 03 00:00:00 2012
01[08:58] {Threei}  *(US) NOV FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.8 V 51.7E
[09:08] {dino} gm
01[09:09] {Threei}  dino :)
01[09:12] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Nov 2012 Vehicle Sales numbers expected throughout the day from major auto makers- Estimated Industry total vehicle SAAR for Nov: 15Me - Analysts estimate that about 30K sales were lost or delayed because of Hurricane Sandy in late October, and that about 250K cars were damaged or destroyed by the storm and which could lead to 70K new car sales to replace the lost vehicles. Replacement shopping could help boost Nov SAAR to 15M or mor
01[09:12] {Threei}  I think it's a day to watch GM again
[09:15] {scottie} good morning
01[09:15] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:20] {Will49} Good morning
01[09:22] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:22] {Threei}  Vatican discloses Pope's Twitter handle: @pontifex
01[09:22] {Threei}  eeck
01[09:23] {Threei}  tweeting Pope
01[09:23] {Threei}  now I've seen it all
[09:23] {ese} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:23] {nemo} surprise surprise, gapped up
[09:24] {ese} if that don't beat all........a twiting pope
[09:25] {nemo} had our daily pre market stop hunt at 8:59 on the spy and iwm
01[09:25] {Threei}  and you don't even have facebook account, ese
01[09:25] {Threei}  for shame
[09:25] {ese} lol.........and it ain't gonna happen either
[09:25] {Beau} good morning
[09:26] {ese} B
01[09:26] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:26] {Threei}  Vatican will send you "cease and desist resistance to progress" letter
01[09:26] {Threei}  look at GM daily
[09:27] {ese} read a small article a few years ago where the doof ball facebook ceo had given the cia and nsa total access to everyones accounts.............it ain't for me
01[09:30] {Threei}  look ese: http://goo.gl/BGhUq
01[09:30] {Threei}  this kind of gems you misds by not being there {G}
01[09:31] {Threei}  I'd swear nemo wrote this
01[09:31] {Threei}  need GM to tighten the spread for a trade
01[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  GM  .15 break
01[09:32] {Threei}  hl
01[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  26
[09:32] {ese} my intelliscan is not working
01[09:33] {Threei}  server outage'
01[09:33] {Threei}  tagert 1:2 GM
01[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {ese} ahhhhh
[09:34] {robbers} out gm, thanks.
01[09:34] {Threei}  :)
[09:34] {Will49} tks Vad good start
[09:34] {scottie} +.15 tks Vad
[09:35] {ese} ok now that is funny
01[09:35] {Threei}  yw
01[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 breal
01[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:40] {robbers} out slw, thanks again.
01[09:41] {Threei}  yw :)
[09:41] {nemo} spy and finnies holding iwm not
[09:42] {dino} 07 red
[09:45] {nemo} if spy drops below this low, that's quite a bit of volume it put in, might go to the 50 around 142.40
[09:47] {nemo} iwm gap fill
01[09:47] {Threei}  GM, scalpers win
01[09:47] {Threei}  this one is still on radar though
01[09:47] {Threei}  daily is too good to dismiss it
01[09:47] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, out
[09:47] {scottie} +.19 tks Vad
01[09:47] {Threei}  yw
[09:48] {Will49} tks Vad .19
01[09:48] {Threei}  :)
01[09:50] {Threei}  (EU) France Fin Min Moscovici: Not 'anxious' about the Greece debt buyback program; more solidarity is required within the EMU
01[09:50] {Threei}  yes comrade
[09:51] {Will49} freestockcharts not working..or is it me?
[09:51] {nemo} both
01[09:51] {Threei}  lol
[09:51] {Will49} :)
[09:52] {Will49} thought I'd give you a softball nemo
[09:52] {nemo} you didn't even realize it
[09:52] {Will49} haha
[09:53] {Will49} derisive haha
[09:53] {nemo} True words are not fine sounding
[09:53] {nemo} Fine sounding words are not true
[09:53] {Will49} oooooh
01[09:53] {Threei}  looks like there is some data issue affecting many providers
[09:53] {nemo} yeah
01[09:53] {Threei}  Iscan, TI, TC2000, FSC
[09:53] {nemo} Maybe I'll take the rest of the day off and try and kill something
[09:54] {Will49} be true to yourself
01[09:54] {Threei}  oh come on, you can't trade without FSC?
01[09:54] {Threei}  kill some weak brain cells if you must
[09:54] {nemo} difficult with my levels mapped
[09:55] {nemo} spy and iwm at levels here
01[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
01[09:55] {Threei}  hl
01[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:56] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  F  .65 break
01[09:57] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:58] {dino} sxc hl l .01
01[09:59] {Threei}  GM new highs
01[09:59] {Threei}  rinsing bastard
01[10:00] {Threei}  whoa
[10:00] {nemo} ISM number
[10:00] {dino} fast fall mkts
01[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) NOV ISM MANUFACTURING: 49.5 V 51.5E; ISM PRICES PAID: V 53.5E
[10:00] {scottie} LVS a stop for me Vad, jumped in at .49 and out at .62
01[10:01] {Threei}  ??
01[10:01] {Threei}  it never triggered'
01[10:01] {Threei}  *(US) OCT CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 1.4% V 0.5%E
[10:01] {scottie} went to .46 on my chart !!
01[10:02] {Threei}  I am lost
01[10:02] {Threei}  level 2 never went under .50
01[10:02] {Threei}  out of bounds print, may be
[10:02] {scottie} looks like we don.t have the same info
[10:03] {Will49} mine did same scottie
01[10:03] {Threei}  anyone had LVS level 2 breaking down through .50?
[10:03] {dino} anybody trouble w/feeestockcharts/vwap?
[10:03] {Will49} was in at .48
01[10:04] {Threei}  General Motors Corp Reports Nov US sales +3.4% y/y at of 186.5K units
01[10:04] {Threei}  what the deuce
[10:05] {nemo} that's bottoming volume on the spy
01[10:05] {Threei}  doesn't work, dino
01[10:05] {Threei}  IntelliScan is back up
01[10:06] {Threei}  I guess FSC should not be far behind
[10:06] {nemo} my charts are wrong though
01[10:06] {Threei}  ok, who was watching LVS after the call, tell me whether level 2 broke .50 or not
[10:06] {nemo} they're not at the right price points
01[10:08] {Threei} Long Setup:  GM  .93
01[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:09] {Threei}  no go
[10:09] {dino} olmn hl l .01 stop .74
[10:09] {ese} ok....that was funny too....been on this board alot of years but have never heard the term "rinsing bastard"
01[10:09] {Threei}  lol
[10:10] {dino} ilmn that is
[10:10] {ese} L btu .97
01[10:13] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .85 break
01[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:13] {ese} alright then.......thts what a higher low in spyders is suppose to do .......carry momentum into the stock you've just bought......."
01[10:15] {Threei}  trail SLW to .92
[10:15] {dino} jlmn to .25
[10:15] {dino} ilmn, geez
[10:16] {dino} out .26, +.25 ilmn
01[10:18] {Threei}  let's trail SLW to .86
01[10:18] {Threei}  no point to risk anything here
[10:21] {Will49} what made you trail stop like that on SLW?
01[10:21] {Threei}  it touched very close to 1:1
01[10:22] {Threei}  1-2 cents more and we would be partialing and trailing
[10:22] {Will49} you don't usually trail that early
[10:22] {Will49} just wondering
[10:23] {Will49} what you saw
[10:23] {nemo} my feeds are still off
01[10:24] {Threei} Short Setup: G;D  .40 break
01[10:25] {Threei}  hl
01[10:25] {Threei}  GLD
01[10:25] {Threei}  grrr
01[10:25] {Threei}  got away
[10:26] {ese} daaaaa  stopped btu. 79 .-18
[10:26] {ese} rinsing bastard!
[10:26] {thomcbell} FB shocking the volume already in first hour
01[10:26] {Threei}  GLD over 1:1
01[10:27] {Threei}  grr
[10:28] {nemo} freestockcharts is a half hour behind
[10:29] {Will49} what do you expect for free?
[10:30] {dino} sxc stop -.12
[10:33] {nemo} Vad...ur gonna' have to start paying me to stay here and put up with Will
[10:33] {Will49} :)
01[10:34] {Threei}  that's a slippery slope
[10:34] {nemo} hehehehe
[10:34] {Will49} i've been designated "nemo baiter"
01[10:34] {Threei}  you know how many people would jump on identical demand, to put up with ypu?? :)
[10:34] {nemo} just give me their addresses
[10:35] {dino} lol
[10:35] {nemo} Hey Dino, how's ur Quarterback?
[10:36] {nemo} he'll probably be the second NFL suicide in a week
[10:36] {dino} roflol
[10:36] {dino} i've always said he sucks
[10:36] {dino} hell his interceptions were 30% of his completions yesterday
[10:36] {nemo} I think the Patriots get their heads handed to them next two weeks.  Houston then SF
[10:37] {dino} maybe, but they are in playoffs no matter what
[10:37] {nemo} yeah, so isn't Andrew Luck, that kid is impressive
[10:37] {dino} indeed
[10:41] {Beau} hope you are right nemo,  Texans been hurt bad with injuries.
[10:44] {Will49} Freestockcharts only 10 min behind now
[10:44] {dino} pir hl l .35
[10:45] {dino} too bad freestockcharts wasn't running 10 minutes ahead
01[10:46] {Threei}  lol
[10:46] {dino} ;-)
[10:46] {dino} ddd drop
01[10:46] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .20 break
01[10:47] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:53] {ese} c ya tomorrow
01[10:53] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:59] {dino} cbrl hl l .75 stop .49
[10:59] {dino} gappy sucker
01[10:59] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .30 break
01[10:59] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[10:59] {Threei}  let's try aggressive entry
01[11:03] {Threei}  1:1
[11:04] {patel} my browser crashed and everytime I tried to log in
[11:04] {patel} it said nickname is in use
[11:04] {robbers} nice timing.
[11:05] {robbers} on gld.
01[11:05] {Threei}  you tried ron username I see
01[11:05] {Threei}  patel12
[11:05] {patel} yeah
[11:05] {patel} so i tried it with patel1
[11:05] {patel} patel12
[11:05] {patel} but still didnt let me log in
[11:05] {patel} everytime I tried with patel it said nickname is in use
[11:05] {patel} but it's fine. Glad to be back in now.
01[11:06] {Threei}  it takes server a few min to see you disconnecting
01[11:06] {Threei}  so-called "ghost"
01[11:07] {Threei}  which browser do you use?
[11:07] {patel} Has anyone tried any of the irc apps for ipad?
[11:07] {patel} firefox
[11:08] {patel} I plan on using my ipad so that I dont clutter up my work computer
01[11:08] {Threei}  no ipad here
[11:08] {Will49} nobody here works:)
[11:09] {thomcbell} what is irc?
[11:09] {dino} lol will. no ipad either
[11:09] {dino} 3 desktops enough
[11:09] {Will49} irc=better alternative to mibbit
01[11:09] {Threei}  1 desktop, 4 monitors
[11:10] {patel} yeah
[11:11] {Will49} tbell...irc has an audible alarm when Vad sends an alert so i can sleep in between
[11:11] {Will49} also seems to be faster than mibbit
[11:12] {thomcbell} ua feeling like a long here to me
[11:12] {thomcbell} don tlike the setup right now
[11:12] {cipher} lamr l .90
01[11:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIG  .30 break hl
01[11:14] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[11:16] {dino} out cbrl .99, +.24
[11:18] {scottie} gld +.17 tks Vad
01[11:18] {Threei}  GLD 1:2
01[11:18] {Threei}  out
01[11:18] {Threei}  yw
01[11:19] {Threei}  changing my tune on RIG
01[11:19] {Threei}  long is invalidated
01[11:20] {Threei}  not sure it's a short candidate yet
[11:20] {nemo} market sleepwalking
[11:22] {dino} no kidding
[11:22] {dino} feels like 2 pm
[11:22] {cipher} sial l .02
[11:22] {nemo} those data feed screwups might have added to the caution
01[11:22] {Threei}  probably
[11:22] {nemo} not cipher though
01[11:22] {Threei}  but still, market went from green to red
01[11:22] {Threei}  which is remarkable
[11:23] {nemo} btw...european markets have given back much of their range
01[11:23] {Threei}  SPY daily is in uptrend, and most of news development were positive over the weekend
01[11:23] {Threei}  so going into red is meaningful
01[11:23] {Threei}  and we did find a few good plays
[11:24] {nemo} not sure, we're back in the range of the last 3 days
01[11:24] {Threei}  important thing is, we are back in that range despite uptrend, depsite gap up and despite good news
[11:25] {nemo} frickin' Pollyanna
01[11:25] {Threei}  view these things against the noise backdrop, and they become meaningful
[11:26] {dino} markets see no cliff resolution
01[11:26] {Threei}  speaking of which... I might have found how "let's borrow more" crowd intends to repay the debt
[11:26] {nemo} the Reps might let it go over the cliff with O'Bama wanting more spending and more taxes
[11:27] {dino} thats what i see nemo
01[11:27] {Threei}  yeah, if Dems insist on more spending, I don't see how Reps can bring themselves to cave
[11:27] {nemo} dead people?
[11:28] {dino} not today
01[11:28] {Threei}  lol
01[11:28] {Threei}  canceling RIG long was right
[11:28] {nemo} two rigs make a wrong
01[11:28] {Threei}  still not sure it's a short though
01[11:29] {Threei}  and I thought my sense of humor was bad... thatnk heavens for nemo
[11:29] {nemo} I'm bored
[11:30] {dino} me too, maybe i'll have early lunch
01[11:30] {Threei}  look at genius photo then: http://goo.gl/uPa09
[11:32] {Will49} great as usual Vad
01[11:32] {Threei}  ty
01[11:32] {Threei}  dino, let me cure your boredom for 54 seconds: http://goo.gl/5yxAx
[11:32] {thomcbell} that is some picture Vad
[11:33] {thomcbell} beautiful
01[11:33] {Threei}  :)
[11:35] {nemo} oh yeah, seen that before
[11:36] {cipher} meli l .91
[11:42] {dino} txi sm spike
01[11:42] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .55 break
01[11:43] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[11:44] {cipher} out sial .09 +.07
[11:48] {dino} damn missed txi s
01[11:49] {Threei}  no go
[11:50] {cipher} out meli .24 +.33
[11:50] {dino} gj
[11:51] {cipher} out lamr. 93 +.03 late post
01[11:51] {Threei}  read this and tell me just how screwed up this world is:
01[11:51] {Threei}  - Spain submitted a formal request for an EU bailout of its banking sector, sending EUR/USD out to six-week highs above 1.3070
01[11:52] {Threei}  if there were any kind of common sense in the world, this would have sent everything crashing down
01[11:52] {Threei}  but in this upside-down contraption it's a good news
[11:52] {dino} whole world is backwards
[11:52] {nemo} Europe closed at 11:30 and that was the bottom
01[11:52] {Threei}  This of course is not the long-awaited sovereign bailout but rather the banking-sector bailout, which has already been months in the making (Spain's informal request came back in early June).
01[11:53] {Threei}  can you imagine how great it's going to be when Spain asks for sovereign bailout?
[11:53] {dino} print at will
[11:54] {dino} it's a big race to see who can inflate fastest
[11:58] {dino} mgam hl l .60
[12:01] {thomcbell} fb not participating n this bounce
01[12:01] {Threei}  it still tardes in its own world
[12:02] {thomcbell} best move ive seen in a while in a major stock
01[12:10] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  28 break
01[12:10] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[12:13] {cipher} meli s .66
[12:13] {cipher} cov .46 +.20
01[12:15] {Threei}  Invalidated
[12:22] {cc_8} Dell Bounces Back on Goldman UpgradePosted on: Monday, December 3, 2012 - 12:16pm
[12:22] {cc_8} Shares of Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) traded higher on Monday, up over six percent in early trading. The move brought Dell back above the $10 per share mark
[12:23] {dino} goldman must have been stuck w/some dell
01[12:23] {Threei}  lol
[12:25] {nemo} vrsn looks like it might go off again
01[12:27] {Threei}  FB is valid again
01[12:33] {Threei}  no go
01[12:34] {Threei}  backing off, these lunch trades are too random
[12:42] {dino} pir to .50, mgam to .70
01[12:42] {Threei}  rinse?
01[12:42] {Threei}  sheesh
01[12:43] {Threei}  disgusting, FB
[12:43] {dino} out pir +.15
[12:45] {dino} out mgam .80, +.20
01[12:47] {Threei}  wtg
01[12:48] {Threei}  can you believe FB
[12:58] {dino} ty
[13:08] {dino} this market is dead
[13:08] {nemo} oh, and I thought it was just me
[13:09] {Will49} ooooh i can't resist tht
[13:09] {Will49} that
[13:09] {nemo} it doesn't count when I lay it out there
[13:09] {Will49} but I will
[13:09] {nemo} you're taking the bait
01[13:09] {Threei}  lol
[13:09] {nemo} back to the farm team for you
[13:10] {Will49} I know, I know :(
[13:10] {nemo} bounce territory
[13:12] {nemo} l .45 tna
[13:13] {nemo} iwm was at the 50sma, spy near low for day, finnies at yesterday close, as were the Qs
[13:17] {nemo} drops .35 I'm out
[13:21] {nemo} fas over .40?
[13:22] {nemo} finnies not coming along
[13:23] {nemo} scratching trade
01[13:23] {Threei}  looks more like short to me...
[13:23] {nemo} now, yes
01[13:23] {Threei}  although I don't have enough conviction for a call
[13:23] {nemo} when spy and IWM wanted up and finnies weren't abiding, confidence fell
[13:23] {nemo} it's iffy, but I was looking for a vwap run
[13:35] {dino} conn hl l .50
01[13:36] {Threei}  ok... read was right
[14:00] {dino} mcrs hl l .25
01[14:06] {Threei}  feels like another leg down is coming
01[14:06] {Threei} Short Setup: FB  .75 break
01[14:06] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:19] {Threei}  stop to .76
01[14:19] {Threei}  no risk anymore, only upside
01[14:19] {Threei}  or downside if you insist on being literal
01[14:19] {Threei}  target around .50 - .55, maybe more
01[14:20] {Threei}  half out
[14:21] {cipher} mlnx l .72
[14:21] {dino} mlnx, heck of a monthly
[14:24] {dino} gap fill on it july
01[14:26] {Threei}  let's go for 1:3
01[14:26] {Threei}  bidding 1/4 at .55
[14:27] {dino} out mcrs .49, +.24
[14:33] {scottie} gotta go, see you all tomorrow
[14:33] {Will49} take car S
[14:34] {scottie} will
[14:34] {Will49} care
[14:34] {dino} cya scott
[14:34] {scottie} dino
01[14:34] {Threei}  take care scottie
[14:35] {robbers} out fb, thanks Vad.
[14:36] {Will49} out tks vad
01[14:36] {Threei}  1:2
01[14:36] {Threei}  yw guys
01[14:36] {Threei}  rebenge is a dish better served cold
[14:36] {dino} kahn
[14:36] {nemo} UA
01[14:36] {Threei}  waited uncertainty out on FB and hit it when everything looked right
[14:48] {cipher} out 1/2 mlnx .48 +.76
01[14:49] {Threei}  1:3, over and out
[14:49] {dino} gj both of you
01[14:49] {Threei}  me happy
01[14:52] {Threei}  no one held it for this target?
[14:53] {robbers} Some of us aren't greedy, LOL.  Very nice call.
01[14:53] {Threei}  and I thought Greed Is Good philosophy was commonly accepted...
[14:54] {Will49} nervous nelly here...out 1:2
[14:55] {robbers} Greed is good.  Except when it isn't.
01[14:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  107 break hl
01[14:58] {Threei}  If holds  .85
[14:59] {cipher} out mlnx in full .89 +1.17
01[14:59] {Threei}  beautoful
01[14:59] {Threei}  wtg
[14:59] {cipher} ty
[15:00] {dino} nice
01[15:00] {Threei}  1:1
01[15:00] {Threei}  1:2
01[15:00] {Threei}  1:3, out
[15:00] {robbers} out, big thanks.
[15:00] {dino} wow
01[15:00] {Threei}  :)
[15:00] {nemo} news?
[15:00] {dino} spike
[15:01] {Will49} out excellent
01[15:01] {Threei}  (US) House Speaker Boehner said to have made counterproposal to President Obama
01[15:01] {Threei}  that'sall, lol
01[15:01] {Threei}  thank you boehner
[15:01] {Will49} best friend boehner
01[15:01] {Threei}  - Plan includes: $1.4T in new spending cuts, $800B in new revenue
[15:01] {thomcbell} bff
01[15:01] {Threei}  remember my prphecy about headlines for the rest of the year?
[15:02] {Will49} wow, were we ever in the right place at the right time!
[15:02] {nemo} news reading algos
01[15:02] {Threei}  anf they say algos always work against you
[15:02] {Beau} pat on back vad
01[15:02] {Threei}  told ya... all this algo/HFT talk is nothing but rationalizing by those who can't trade
[15:02] {nemo} don't worry, he got to it first
01[15:03] {Threei}  thanks Beau
01[15:03] {Threei}  lol nemo
01[15:05] {Threei}  meanwhile in the Land of Permanent Bailouts:
01[15:05] {Threei}  (EU) EMU Finance Ministers reportedly discussed new bailouts at the meeting today - financial press
[15:06] {nemo} http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQAFCbsgQeo&feature=youtu.be
[15:12] {cipher} mlnx s.50
[15:13] {nemo} inflextion levels are .20 and .90
[15:13] {cipher} cov 1/2 .29
01[15:13] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/6VDPK
[15:14] {cipher} cov rest .09 +.41
[15:15] {Will49} cipher..what drugs do you take to enable you to trade those spreads?
[15:16] {nemo} lobotomy
[15:16] {Will49} lol
[15:16] {cipher} it's not that bad will
[15:16] {nemo} he's looking at levels and reading the T&S
[15:16] {cipher} mlnx is pretty reasonable
01[15:16] {Threei}  50mg of Idontcaremamine daily
[15:16] {Will49} haha
[15:17] {cipher} I just wait for the right moment
01[15:17] {Threei}  how did we all trade during fraction times
[15:17] {nemo} you look where mlnx actually trades between the spreads, that tellsy you direction
[15:17] {cipher} it's called patience
[15:17] {cipher} also I do not use mkt orders
[15:18] {Will49} no kidding!
[15:18] {cipher} limit below offer/above bid
[15:18] {cipher} so in essence I'm capturing the spread
[15:18] {Will49} tks cipher....maybe when I grow up:)
[15:19] {cipher} np
01[15:19] {Threei}  market order on those stocks is just above the cutting your own throat with tin can opened by rusty knife on a pleasure scale
[15:20] {dino} you'd always be in the red w/market orders
[15:21] {dino} my question cipher, do you go full lots or control thru size adjust like i do
[15:21] {nemo} cipher, you should change your nick to "Knievel"
[15:22] {cipher} it depends on the stock dino
[15:22] {cipher} mlnx was full lot
[15:23] {cipher} but I will do less if required
[15:23] {dino} wow. i was going 400 on it. no fill
[15:23] {cipher} at what price?
[15:23] {dino} remember friday mygn? can i ask size? i was 500
[15:24] {dino} 66.55 wanted re-test
[15:24] {cipher} I'd have to check
[15:24] {dino} out conn -.02
[15:24] {cipher} I have a very short term memory
[15:24] {nemo} more than I have
[15:24] {cipher} if you asked me what I traded this am I couldn't tell ya :)
[15:24] {nemo} I feel like Guy Pierce in Memento
[15:24] {dino} about 3:30 drop, you and i played a buck each
[15:25] {cipher} sounds familiar nemo :)
[15:25] {cipher} good movie
[15:25] {nemo} wouldn't surprise me to see spy take 142 again
[15:25] {nemo} I like his work
[15:26] {nemo} Amazing how many Brits are cast to play Americans
[15:26] {cipher} yeah I noticed that too
[15:26] {cipher} also some ausie chicks playing americans
[15:26] {nemo} Well, watched a Brando movie where he played a German
[15:26] {nemo} Yeah, lots of Sheila's
[15:27] {nemo} Sheilas
[15:27] {cipher} one that comes to mind... Hannah McKay
[15:27] {nemo} Funny...Australia is like visiting an American city where they drive the wrong way
[15:27] {cipher} easy on the eyes too :)
[15:27] {dino} indeed
[15:27] {nemo} then there's the chick that played the elf queen
[15:28] {nemo} the chick that played opposite Dennis Quaid in that baseball movie
[15:28] {nemo} Rachel Ward
[15:28] {nemo} Cruise's ex
[15:29] {cipher} oh yeah
[15:29] {Will49} nicole kidman
[15:29] {nemo} yeah...memory
[15:29] {dino} cute
[15:30] {nemo} iwm right near the 50 sma
[15:32] {nemo} oh, and the guy that played the Elf Lord and Mr. Smith,  met him once when I was in Sydney
[15:32] {nemo} a kid's birthday party of all places
[15:34] {nemo} What's my rabbit's name, Vad?
01[15:36] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:36] {nemo} you too, huh?
01[15:36] {Threei}  i guess
[15:36] {nemo} starts with a "b" I think?
[15:38] {dino} ssys drop
[15:40] {cipher} ssys l.70
[15:40] {cipher} out .99 +.29 thx dino
[15:42] {dino} gj
01[15:49] {Threei}  OK guys, happy with how we started December
01[15:49] {Threei}  no more trades
[15:49] {dino} nflx drop
01[15:49] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:49] {dino} cya vad
[15:50] {Will49} great day Vad

Nemo's findings 12/2/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html 

The week that was:

Sorry, had a file backup problem, so I didn't get the daily panel layout.  Having said that, above is the complete week.  Notice the bottom on the 28th, that was the supposed "kumbaya" moment between Boehner  and Obama.   Don't you find it amazingly coincidental that at the bottom the Qs were at their Weekly Pivot, the IWM was at the Monthly S1 and the SPY was at a whole number, which is often an inflection point for price action.  Think I'm gonna' have to rethink that Santa Clause thing...

Anyway, the last two days, which were filled with political posturing in the area of the 50 SMA of  financials, the SPY and the IWM  look like bull flags.  The dailies for the last couple of days show potential indecision.  Monday will be the first day of the month for mutual fund inflows....Gap up anybody?

Anyway, the week that is: