Thursday, October 11, 2012

Oct 11 2012

Very nice day with one winning trade after another, very tight risk control and solidly in the black...  and ending with very cute quick scalp on last seconds. Changes the tune of this admittedly rough week.


Session Time: Thu Oct 11 00:00:00 2012
[09:10] {scottie} good morning
01[09:10] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:12] {goryl} gm
01[09:12] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:14] {goryl} Vad, did u ever use bats to route ur orders?
01[09:14] {Threei}  no, but mostly because I am lazy
[09:15] {scottie} please explain
[09:15] {scottie} well, I know it's not the ideal time, answer later
01[09:15] {Threei}  just not jumping from route to route, mostly staying with the same
[09:15] {Beau} gm
01[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:17] {goryl} checked the trade report yesterday and was surprised on how much ECN fees vary.  Some were almost as much as the commissions so i asked Nonko and they said BATS is the most reliable and cheaper.
01[09:17] {Threei}  right, plus you do know about ECN rebate, right?
[09:17] {goryl} no..
01[09:17] {Threei}  oh
01[09:18] {Threei}  ok, you pay ECN fee when you hit bid or offer;
01[09:18] {Threei}  but, if you put in offer or bid and let others hot you, ECN pays you
[09:18] {goryl} adding liquidity
[09:18] {goryl} so since we use limit orders we should be adding liquidity right?
01[09:18] {Threei}  latter case is adding liquidity; former is taking it
[09:19] {Will49} gm
01[09:19] {Threei}  unless your limit matches existing market on the opposite side
01[09:19] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:19] {Threei}  example for simplicity:
01[09:19] {Threei}  quote is 10 x 10.05
01[09:20] {Threei}  you are long from 9.90
01[09:20] {Threei}  you want to sell
01[09:20] {Threei}  if you hit 10, you pay
01[09:20] {Threei}  if you offer at 10.04 and they take you out, you get paid
01[09:20] {Threei}  so, it makes sense to lay out order in advance if you have target in mind
01[09:21] {Threei}  you can't do this all the time obviously, you'll miss to many fills
01[09:21] {Threei}  especially on breakout entries
[09:22] {goryl} ok, i'm new to this ECN business:)
01[09:22] {Threei}  however, even on those you may get rebate in case when your order is not filled, then stock returns and you get a fill
01[09:22] {Threei}  example:
01[09:22] {Threei}  you try to buy 10 break with limit at 10.02,
01[09:23] {Threei}  stock spikes too fast without filling you, so your order becomes a bid
01[09:23] {Threei}  then it pullas back from 10.05 and fills you - you get rebate
[09:23] {goryl} r the rebates applied at the end of the day?
[09:23] {nemo} spy stop hunt
01[09:23] {Threei}  you see them the same way as you see ECN fees
01[09:24] {Threei}  when you look in analysis window,
01[09:24] {Threei}  you have a line saying passthru
01[09:25] {Threei}  in the rightmost column Net
[09:25] {nemo} IWM hit Weekly S1 and is backing off, same with SPY, but that stop hunt for shorts makes me think higher
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .35 break
01[09:30] {Threei}  hl
01[09:30] {Threei}  1:1 if you got lucky
[09:30] {scottie} nice trade, too fast
01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:32] {thomcbell} gdx low
01[09:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .70 break
01[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:34] {Threei}  half out .80
[09:34] {cipher} nice one
01[09:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
01[09:35] {Threei}  stop .22
01[09:36] {Threei}  no go
01[09:37] {Threei}  rinse
[09:37] {thomcbell} short setup - lvs 43.70 break if holding 43.80
01[09:37] {Threei}  nice one
[09:38] {thomcbell} 1:1
[09:38] {thomcbell} gm trades wellout of the gate
01[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  POT  .05 break
01[09:39] {Threei}  change to 42
01[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[09:41] {thomcbell} covered another 1/4 lvs at 43.55
[09:42] {thomcbell} stop to 43.66 on last 1/4
01[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .25 break
01[09:43] {Threei}  1:1
[09:43] {thomcbell} lovely vad
01[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break hl
01[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:49] {Threei}  SLW 1:2, out
01[09:50] {Threei}  let's trail FCX to .24
01[09:52] {Threei}  1;1
[09:53] {thomcbell} stop on lvs to 43,50
[09:53] {thomcbell} out
[09:54] {Will49} congrats
01[09:54] {Threei}  verrrry nice one
[09:54] {thomcbell} tu
[09:54] {cipher} CAT L .30
[09:54] {thomcbell} slw angry today
[09:55] {nemo} think fast gonna go momo
[09:55] {cipher} out cat .46 +.16
01[09:55] {Threei}  wtg
01[09:55] {Threei}  FCX 1:2, out
01[09:56] {Threei}  so far so good
[09:56] {scottie} Great start Vad tks
[09:57] {cipher} aapl l .81
01[09:57] {Threei}  yw
[10:02] {scottie} T l .70 ?
[10:02] {cipher} out aapl.90 +1.09
01[10:03] {Threei}  T, looks right
[10:06] {nemo} FAST  interesting
01[10:06] {Threei}  46 break?
[10:06] {nemo} yeah, might have to buy support though
[10:07] {nemo} I think if it breaks it'll rocket
[10:07] {thomcbell} cmi looks like a long setup - but staying away
[10:07] {thomcbell} what a fade this am
[10:08] {nemo} short under 87
[10:08] {nemo} if stopped, short again at vwap
[10:10] {scottie} you think T is 2 sided ?
01[10:10] {Threei}  yup
[10:11] {thomcbell} yes
01[10:11] {Threei}  hmmm
01[10:11] {Threei}  PIMCO ?@PIMCO
01[10:11] {Threei}  Gross: He who hesitates is lost. Pride goeth before a fall. #Spain should swallow its pride and ask for help now!
[10:11] {scottie} in .59
01[10:11] {Threei}  what is he, stupid?
01[10:11] {Threei}  pride has nothing to do with it
01[10:12] {Threei}  it's blackmail0style bargaining
01[10:12] {Threei}  don't give me Greece-like conditions, then I'll ask for and accept your help
01[10:12] {Threei}  otherwise I quit and your union is done
[10:14] {goryl} damn it, my internet went down
01[10:15] {Threei}  ugh
[10:15] {goryl} vad, did u have any trades after the slw long at .25?
01[10:15] {Threei}  missed good one
01[10:15] {Threei}  yes
[10:15] {goryl} crap
01[10:15] {Threei}  FCX long for 1:2
[10:21] {nemo} Syria just blew up oil pipeline
[10:23] {cc_8} International Shipholding Corporation (NYSE: ISH) announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a 100% ownership interest in U.S. Ocean Services
[10:23] {scottie} T stopped
[10:23] {cc_8} Korn/Ferry International (NYSE: KFY), a premier global provider of talent management solutions, today announced that its computer network was the target of a criminal data security breach.
[10:24] {cc_8} Quest Diagnostics Says Will Cut 400-600 Management Jobs; Create 2 New Business Structures
[10:26] {cc_8} PrivateBancorp Reports $125M Debt Offering; Will Use Proceeds to Repay TARP
01[10:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .85 break hl
01[10:32] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:33] {nemo} cm short .98
[10:33] {nemo} cmi
[10:33] {nemo} stop .12ish
[10:34] {nemo} oops spy and iwm look like they're going
[10:36] {cipher} bidu l .01
[10:37] {cipher} out 1/2 .19
01[10:38] {Threei}  1:1
[10:39] {cipher} out cat .97 +.18 thx
01[10:40] {Threei}  :)
01[10:40] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:40] {Threei}  out
[10:40] {Will49} another nice call Vad
01[10:41] {Threei}  I have my monments...
[10:41] {scottie} +.29 tks Master
01[10:42] {Threei}  let's see nemo puking :)
[10:42] {scottie} lol
01[10:42] {Threei}  oh, btw...
[10:42] {nemo} C&H SPY
01[10:42] {Threei}  http://photography.realitytrader.com/2012/10/montreal-magic-of-lanterns.html
[10:44] {Will49} Beautiful
01[10:45] {Threei}  (US) Labor Dept official indicates the decline in initial jobless claims was due to a technicality and will be likely a temporary issue
01[10:46] {Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier Initial Jobless claims came in below expectations; one of the bigger states failed to report quarterly data, which accounts for a large portion of the claims decrease
[10:46] {nemo} fast broke 46
01[10:47] {Threei}  18% Consider Vice Presidential Debate Very Important To Their Vote
01[10:48] {Threei}  I guess it's those same that think Obama picked Pol Ryan as his VP because of his competency
[10:48] {Will49} This should be a joke
[10:49] {Will49} the odd couple debating
01[10:55] {Threei} Short Setup: GM  .80 break
01[10:55] {Threei}  check in advance if it's shortable
[10:56] {nemo} s fcx .17
[10:56] {nemo} stop above .27
[10:56] {nemo} bidding .06
[11:01] {nemo} stop to .20
[11:04] {cipher} s aapl 639.52
[11:04] {cipher} cov +.52
[11:04] {nemo} wow...wish I caught that fast break...no pun intendend
[11:06] {cipher} want aapl long 637ish
[11:06] {cipher} if it gets there
[11:07] {nemo} looking for fcx to drop to vwap
[11:07] {nemo} stop to .15ish
[11:07] {cc_8} Heartland Financial USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: HTLF) announced today that it has . entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Heritage Bank, National
[11:07] {cipher} L AAPL 637.27
[11:09] {nemo} bidding .95 fcx
[11:09] {cipher} out 1/2 +1
01[11:10] {Threei}  eeck
01[11:11] {Threei}  GM stop .86
[11:13] {nemo} FAST coming back in
[11:15] {nemo} pulling fcx bid
[11:15] {nemo} that volume spike
[11:15] {nemo} wow
[11:16] {nemo} fast
[11:16] {nemo} sorry
01[11:19] {Threei}  let's cover half GM
[11:20] {nemo} s cnx .99
[11:20] {nemo} stop .10ish
[11:21] {nemo} mmmh, stink bid .00 FAST?
[11:22] {nemo} bidding .91 fcx
[11:25] {nemo} out fcx
[11:25] {scottie} target 1:2 or 1:3 on gm Vad?
01[11:25] {Threei}  1:2
[11:25] {scottie} tks
[11:25] {nemo} l fast .12
[11:25] {nemo} stop under .00
[11:27] {nemo} ow
[11:27] {nemo} looking for bounce at .75 level
[11:28] {nemo} rinse
[11:28] {nemo} fcx
[11:28] {nemo} sorry
01[11:29] {Threei}  scalpers win
[11:30] {nemo} wlt .15 offer
[11:32] {scottie} aig s .80 ?
01[11:32] {Threei}  not sure
[11:33] {scottie} looks like c&h ?
01[11:33] {Threei}  just a bit narrow today
[11:33] {scottie} tks
[11:34] {nemo} joy
[11:34] {nemo} sorry
[11:35] {scottie} etn l .20 ?
[11:35] {nemo} chk offer
[11:35] {nemo} right at the 200 day SMA
[11:39] {nemo} almost worth buying with a stop under .10, let's see if we get a flush first
[11:39] {thomcbell} fcx 2 sided - 41.17 and 41.20
[11:40] {thomcbell} fcx 1:1
[11:42] {nemo} scratching CNX
[11:43] {thomcbell} fcx 1:2 and closed
[11:44] {Will49} salutee
01[11:44] {Threei}  wtg
[11:52] {cipher} aapl l 634.03
[11:54] {thomcbell} fcx lot of fight
[11:57] {cipher} out 1/2 aapl 635.36 +1.33
[12:06] {thomcbell} long small dg
[12:09] {thomcbell} out dg 49.59
[12:13] {thomcbell} wow this dltr down much more than the other two
[12:19] {thomcbell} fcx was another entry there potentially with 41.33 stop
[12:19] {thomcbell} 41.28  break
01[12:24] {Threei} Long Setup:  GM  .83 break
01[12:24] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[12:25] {Threei}  negligible risk, aggressive entry for .90 break
01[12:29] {Threei}  plan is to all first partial just under .90
[12:29] {thomcbell} covered remaining fcx
01[12:30] {Threei}  and ride the rest for the break
01[12:34] {Threei}  come on GM, push
01[12:35] {Threei}  so, while we are waiting on this one, get this little story
01[12:36] {Threei}  having a meting with local business association that showed interest in using some of my photos in their marketing, I put some of shots I wanted to show them on my tablet
01[12:36] {Threei}  in a few hours, coming back home, I see notification on my computer from Google:
01[12:36] {Threei}  you added some photos to Instant Upload
01[12:36] {Threei}  what the deuce, thinks me,
[12:37] {Will49} dishonest Cauncks:(
[12:37] {Will49} Canucks
01[12:37] {Threei}  go to check, sure enough all photos I loaded on tablet with no slightest intention to upload them on internet, got uploaded
01[12:37] {Threei}  no will
[12:37] {Will49} kidding
01[12:38] {Threei}  google+ has default setting that uploads all photos you put on a tablet
01[12:38] {Threei}  you can turn it off,
01[12:38] {Threei}  but you need to know about its existence in a first place
01[12:38] {Threei}  which I didn't
[12:38] {Will49} ahhh I see.....me ludite
[12:39] {Will49} Will sitting here trying to get a rise out of nem
[12:39] {Will49} nemo
01[12:39] {Threei}  they are not public until you share them, but anyway, I can imagine situations where people want theit photos nowhere near internet
01[12:40] {Threei}  I mean, a couple making some home shots on their phone or tablet, for their own consumption... suddenly finding them being uploaded?? :)
[12:40] {Will49} oohhh
[12:41] {Will49} Wife has an iPad....better watch out eh?
[12:41] {dino} cmn sm l .84
01[12:42] {Threei}  no idea about Apple
[12:45] {Will49} she uses PICASA for photos
01[12:48] {Threei}  half out
01[12:48] {Threei}  btw... considering risk being next to zero, 5 lots
[12:50] {dino} nice
[12:56] {goryl} just figured a way to turn my cell phone into a hotspot.  Now i got a backup internet connection.  Take that cable co...:)
01[12:57] {Threei}  anyone's in GM and need help with trade management?
01[12:59] {Threei}  come on... 4 cents risk, yeilded 16 cents already, and no one takes it?
01[12:59] {Threei}  I am off to monasdtery
[12:59] {thomcbell} what was the entry Vaddy?
[12:59] {Will49} got .10 on a scalp tks
01[13:00] {Threei}  12:24] {Threei} Long Setup: GM .83 break
01[13:00] {Threei}  [12:24] {Threei} If holds .80
01[13:00] {Threei}  [12:25] {Threei} negligible risk, aggressive entry for .90 break
[13:00] {Beau} bought @ .83
01[13:00] {Threei}  whew
[13:01] {Beau} sm.  thought of adding but didn't
[13:01] {thomcbell} i do  really like this gm - nice relative strength of late
[13:20] {scottie} was away for a while, missed GM trade, considering the risk, it made 1:3, nice
[13:21] {scottie} you bought 5K Vad ?
01[13:23] {Threei}  yeah
01[13:23] {Threei}  with such risk, why not increase size
01[13:23] {Threei}  very thick stock, too
01[13:23] {Threei}  no slippage concern
[13:23] {scottie} Kinda guts I don't have yet, lol
01[13:24] {Threei}  ese would love this play but he is slacking today
01[13:24] {Threei}  gotta remember to rub it in his face tomorrow
[13:26] {scottie} peg .15 if holds .10 ?
01[13:27] {Threei}  probably
01[13:29] {Threei}  sklow...
01[13:29] {Threei}  -k
01[13:47] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .95 break
01[13:49] {Threei}  stop is above 41
01[13:49] {Threei}  (obviously)
01[13:51] {Threei}  bid half .86 - .87
01[13:51] {Threei}  hit
01[13:51] {Threei}  stop to .96
[14:06] {goryl} see u tomorrow Vad
01[14:08] {Threei}  take cre goryl
[14:31] {thomcbell} take care everyone
[14:31] {thomcbell} got to do some kids stuff
[14:32] {Will49} be good thom
[14:37] {jackharry} OUCH!! Rugby League play loses testicle after rupturing it during match and refusing to come off for treatment  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rugbyleague/article-2214752/Paul-Wood-man-lost-testicle-Grand-Final-EXCLUSIVE.html
01[14:39] {Threei}  god... it's painful just to read the headline
[14:54] {nemo} tna long setup, but I'm not feling it
[15:00] {nemo} funny action
[15:02] {nemo} mmhhh, indexes look long on 15 minute
[15:10] {nemo} chop chop
[15:28] {dino} strange days, scanner barely moves last few days
01[15:28] {Threei}  yes... spoke about it yesterday
[15:29] {dino} not my market, barely trading
[15:29] {dino} lots of sitting on my hands so to speak
01[15:36] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/1ugtC
[15:37] {scottie} wow, beautiful Vad
01[15:38] {Threei}  ty
[15:43] {Will49} did you photoshop that moon in there:)
01[15:43] {Threei}  yup
[15:43] {Will49} fabulous photo
01[15:43] {Threei}  :)
[15:44] {Will49} by the way...you were only given permission to travel to Toronto
01[15:44] {Threei}  I am a rebel
01[15:45] {Threei}  want to make me jump fropm the bridge - hang a sign forbidding to do so
01[15:46] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
01[15:46] {Threei}  kast coksing scalp
01[15:46] {Threei}  last clsing
01[15:46] {Threei}  closing
01[15:46] {Threei}  there... I made it
01[15:46] {Threei}  If holds  .85
01[15:49] {Threei}  took .83 aggressive
01[15:49] {Threei}  I can handle 3 cents stop
01[15:49] {Threei}  dies FCX
01[15:49] {Threei}  -c
01[15:49] {Threei}  -s
01[15:49] {Threei}  sheesh, my typing becomes worse by minute
01[15:50] {Threei}  I need to wear fins on my feet anf try to type with them... can't be any worse that it is
01[15:52] {Threei}  lol:
01[15:52] {Threei}  A key reason for Standard & Poor�s two-notch downgrade of Spain to near junk last night is the refusal of premier Mariano Rajoy to bite the bullet on a rescue. His "hesitation" is "potentially raising the risks to Spain�s rating".
01[15:52] {Threei}  By contrast, Moody�s said earlier that it will cut Spain to junk if it DOES request a bail-out. What a marvellous mess.
01[15:52] {Threei}  man... what a frikin bunch of clowns
01[15:55] {Threei}  worth reading:
01[15:55] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/eHekm
01[15:56] {Threei}  sell faster FCX, time's running out
01[15:58] {Threei}  1 min left
01[15:59] {Threei}  out .76
01[15:59] {Threei}  nice end to a nice day
01[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, have a greate evening
01[15:59] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:59] {Will49} Tks Vad
[16:00] {scottie} out +.04, nice scalp to end a great day, tks Vad
01[16:00] {Threei}  :)
[16:00] {scottie} gn all
[16:00] {robbers} thanks Vac
[16:01] {robbers} My typing is copying Vad's now.  Thanks.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Oct 10 2012

Another back and forth day.  That's quite unusual for October, normally market is more determined and we have easy time. Something keeps market tense and nervous.

Session Time: Wed Oct 10 00:00:00 2012
[08:55] {cipher} gm
01[08:59] {Threei}  morning cipher
[09:06] {goryl} gm
01[09:06] {Threei}  goryl :)
[09:11] {scottie} GOOD MORNING
[09:11] {scottie} Damn capitals again, sorry
01[09:11] {Threei}  scottie :)
01[09:11] {Threei}  that's OK, probably woke nemo right up
[09:12] {scottie} and you think it's a good thing !!
[09:12] {nemo} I'm playing with bunny
01[09:15] {Threei}  if he wanted to sleep a bit more, hell yeah I think so!
[09:16] {nemo} sleep?
[09:16] {nemo} What's that?
[09:19] {Beau} gm
01[09:19] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:20] {Will49} good morning
01[09:20] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:24] {Threei}  practically flat opening
[09:27] {robbers} Boooooo.
01[09:27] {Threei}  let's skip couple minutes to see if market dcecides on direction
01[09:27] {Threei}  ummm... good morning to you too, robbers
[09:27] {thomcbell} i want to see how CMI deals with this report and down 5% pre-open 
[09:27] {robbers} LOL, I was boooing the flat opening, but you can take it personally if you'd like.
01[09:28] {Threei}  hehe
01[09:28] {Threei}  CMI, volatility will be huge on this one
01[09:28] {Threei}  careful
[09:28] {nemo} watch cat then too
01[09:30] {Threei}  FCX
01[09:30] {Threei}  watching for bounce
[09:30] {nemo} mon
[09:30] {thomcbell} fdx? up 3.3%
01[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break hl
01[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[09:32] {nemo} looking at daily looks like short
01[09:32] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:32] {Threei}  FDX several upgrades
01[09:32] {Threei}  presentation on cost cutting
01[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .70 break
01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .35 break
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .25 
01[09:36] {Threei}  POT 1:1
01[09:37] {Threei}  Invalidated  FCX 
[09:38] {nemo} wow, lack of liquidity everywhere
01[09:39] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .35 break hl
01[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .25 
01[09:41] {Threei}  nope, not yet
[09:43] {thomcbell} now looking for a long setup in fcx 
01[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  AOL  .10 break
01[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  36 
[09:43] {thomcbell} ETN very impressive 
[09:44] {thomcbell} was down at 45 pre-open
01[09:44] {Threei}  1:1
01[09:44] {Threei}  in a hurry
[09:46] {thomcbell} long setup fcx 40 break if holding 39.89
[09:46] {thomcbell} too late 
01[09:49] {Threei}  ugh... CAT .20 was it
[09:51] {scottie} sbux s 47 ?
01[09:52] {Threei}  yes
[09:53] {scottie} too fast
[09:55] {thomcbell} etn looking like a short here 
[09:55] {thomcbell} looking to short a retrace up to 45.85
[09:55] {nemo} fcx
01[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
01[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[09:58] {nemo} this is the 50sma for iwm
01[09:58] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[10:03] {Threei}  1:1
[10:08] {scottie} partialled out at .30 and .40, out in full at .28 tks Vad
01[10:09] {Threei}  :)
[10:13] {nemo} wow WMT
[10:20] {thomcbell} covering half etn 45.55 
[10:25] {scottie} emc s .05 ?
[10:25] {thomcbell} covering balance etn here 45.47
[10:26] {scottie} forget it
[10:35] {thomcbell} long setup rtn 55.15 break if holding 55.05
01[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .75 break
01[10:38] {Threei}  .69 stop
01[10:40] {Threei}  whoa
[10:41] {nemo} whoa what? chin hit the keyboard?
01[10:41] {Threei}  do you see the same SPY that I see?
[10:41] {nemo} what specifically, the range?
[10:42] {nemo} or lack thereof?
01[10:42] {Threei}  I guess we are in different universes...
01[10:42] {Threei}  you don't see the sharp red bar?
[10:43] {thomcbell} OK long small rtn 55.16 
[10:43] {nemo} I see a sharp red bar for .10
[10:47] {scottie} amrn l .20 iof holds .15 ?
01[10:47] {Threei}  if you want a 5-7 cents trade...
01[10:47] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .55 break
01[10:48] {Threei}  Swing State Tracking: #Romney 49%, #Obama 47%
[10:51] {thomcbell} etn - darnit 
[10:52] {scottie} missed amrn
[10:52] {nemo} frickin' wmt
[10:53] {Will49} lots of cussin this morning:)
[10:53] {nemo} alternate universe  WMT going momo
01[10:53] {Threei}  I don't know why... decent morning
[10:56] {thomcbell} qcom looks like a long for 0.20 cents or so 
[10:56] {thomcbell} not playing VAD!
01[10:56] {Threei}  QCOM?
01[10:56] {Threei}  I hate it
[10:57] {thomcbell} i bought a little ARO - i think a pullback to 13.10ish can be bought
[10:59] {nemo} think qcom got another buck of downside
[10:59] {thomcbell} especially if aapl turns tail
[11:00] {nemo} two way setup
[11:00] {nemo} short under .74
[11:01] {nemo} stop .86
[11:02] {thomcbell} slw wicked 
[11:03] {nemo} looking for .50ish for first partial
01[11:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .75 break hl
01[11:05] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[11:07] {scottie} once again, too fast for me :(
[11:07] {Will49} as for me
01[11:07] {Threei}  hmmm... .76 was there...
01[11:07] {Threei}  1:1
[11:07] {nemo} set your order .02 higher than the trigger
[11:08] {cipher} 75 easy entry for me 
[11:08] {Will49} did..still didn't fill
[11:08] {Will49} just takes practice I guess
[11:09] {scottie} I set my order to .77, but still diod't fill
[11:09] {scottie} didn't
[11:09] {nemo} might have jumped
[11:09] {cipher} what route scottie?
[11:09] {nemo} stop to .80ish qcom
[11:09] {scottie} isld
[11:09] {cipher} aha that's why
01[11:09] {Threei}  in this particular case, it's a bit weird... it was available
01[11:10] {Threei}  do you have route out checked?
[11:10] {cipher} isld sucks for me
[11:10] {cipher} never use it
[11:10] {Will49} had ARCA 
[11:10] {nemo} I'm liking this qcom weakness in the market strength
[11:10] {scottie} How Vad
01[11:10] {Threei}  right click on level 2 please,
01[11:11] {Threei}  right column, mid sewction, says Route Out
01[11:11] {Threei}  make sure all boxes are checked in there
[11:12] {scottie} ok done, what does that do
01[11:12] {Threei}  if the box matching your ECN of choice is not checked, it will hit only orders within that ECN
01[11:12] {Threei}  if it is, it will go out and hit all other orders
[11:13] {scottie} Will probably help me a lot in getting in :)
01[11:13] {Threei}  so, your ISLD might have looked for ISLD iffers, didn't find any and quit
01[11:13] {Threei}  instead of hitting whatever was available
[11:14] {scottie} tks, great
[11:19] {scottie} vlo s .30 ?
[11:20] {nemo} out qcom
01[11:21] {Threei}  or long .40
01[11:21] {Threei}  can't tell which is more likely
[11:21] {scottie} ok tks
[11:26] {scottie} in .29
[11:26] {nemo} dltr l .35
[11:26] {nemo} boredom trade
[11:26] {nemo} stop under .30
[11:28] {nemo} I dino'd the stock
[11:29] {nemo} partialing .48
[11:30] {nemo} next target .70ish
[11:30] {scottie} wtf, it coverd everything at .23 without order ???
01[11:31] {Threei}  huh?
01[11:31] {Threei}  rise of the machines?
[11:31] {scottie} had an oms stop order placed at .41
[11:32] {scottie} never got there but covered anyway, that's strange
[11:32] {nemo} stop .40ish
01[11:34] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .35 break
01[11:35] {Threei}  If holds  .45 
[11:35] {thomcbell} short setup - slw 39.10 break if holding 39.20
01[11:36] {Threei}  SPY loses .80, freefall should ensue
01[11:36] {Threei}  women and children are to be defenestrated
[11:36] {thomcbell} Wal-Mart's Sam's Club to carry Children Place items - from 11:05
[11:37] {nemo} SPY lows
[11:37] {nemo} IWM closing in on lows, watch for bounce
[11:40] {thomcbell} spy 143.54 is monthly pivot right NEMO?
01[11:40] {Threei}  Voters Trust #Romney 50% to 43% Over #Obama on# Economy
[11:40] {nemo} yep
[11:41] {thomcbell} i covered 1/2 slw at 39.01 - stop to 39.09 on balance
01[11:42] {Threei}  come on CAT...
01[11:42] {Threei}  1 cent to 1;1?
[11:42] {nemo} warned ya'
[11:43] {thomcbell} flattening slw here 
[11:48] {thomcbell} plce acting well now
[11:50] {thomcbell} too thin i suppose 
01[11:52] {Threei}  1:1
01[11:52] {Threei}  finally
01[11:53] {Threei}  1:2 baby
01[11:53] {Threei}  let the defenestration continue
[11:54] {scottie} laser coverd again without order, gotta talk to +cc_8
01[11:54] {Threei}  need 2x4?
[12:03] {nemo} fdx might be long off vwap here
[12:03] {nemo} nope
01[12:03] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  40 brak
01[12:03] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[12:03] {Threei}  was it with OMS odrer again, scottie?
[12:04] {scottie} yes
01[12:04] {Threei}  something's wrong in programming there... I don't know why you need that crap anyway
01[12:07] {Threei}  got FCX? don't put any OMS in, enter bid at 1:1, and change rpice in order bar to 40.12, and keep your finger ion buy button if it approaches ,10
[12:08] {scottie} tks, I'll do
01[12:16] {Threei}  no go
01[12:17] {Threei}  don't forget to cancel that .0- bid
01[12:17] {Threei}  .90
[12:17] {scottie} I did tks
01[12:35] {Threei}  no news during whole day to assign these drops to
01[12:36] {Threei}  (GR) JP Morgan CEO: A Greek default by itself would not be a catastrophe, however it could set off a domino effect in Europe
01[12:41] {Threei} Short Setup: KSS  .40 break
01[12:41] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
01[12:50] {Threei}  SPY remains in downtrending channel
01[12:51] {Threei}  if trend holds, it should drop and make new low from here
01[12:51] {Threei}  if goes over .50, trend will have changed
01[12:53] {Threei}  there you go... like a clock
01[12:54] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .46 to protect against double bottom
01[13:08] {Threei}  ok, let's trail to .41
01[13:08] {Threei}  SPY starts looking like reversal is close
01[13:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  83 break
01[13:13] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
01[13:16] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[13:19] {Threei}  no go
01[13:28] {Threei}  anyone is alive out there?
[13:29] {Will49} alive but not well
[13:29] {Will49} but it's early
[13:30] {thomcbell} im here - still - just watching right now
[13:31] {scottie} when .46 printed, I hit the button and sold at .45, and now of course it's going down, bad day to buy lottery tickets
[13:57] {nemo} cup of coffee or glass of Jack?
[13:58] {nemo} o.k. glass of Jack
[13:58] {goryl} Vad, as far as trade management, on a day like this Monday, do you reduce ur size after ur stoped a few times or do u continue?  I know it's a personal preference but i'm trying to put together a sound managment plan.
01[13:58] {Threei}  reducing size is good idea
[13:59] {nemo} goryl, how do you feel after a few stops?
01[13:59] {Threei}  keeping it smaller until winning streak is regained
[13:59] {goryl} Offcourse i started trading live this Monday:)
[14:00] {goryl} it doesn't hurt me now because my trade size is small but i want to control those types of situations better
[14:00] {nemo} O.K.  well more than likely your emotions will go a bit on tilt after a series of losses, so....
[14:00] {nemo} more than likely staying disciplined on the next trade will become more difficult
[14:01] {nemo} you will be more likely to pull the trigger on a stop before the stop is reached
01[14:01] {Threei}  beige book
[14:01] {nemo} then, if the trade goes your way, you'll be pissed at yourself, which may further augment being on tilt
[14:02] {nemo} So smaller helps keep the fuel off the emotional responses to trades
[14:02] {nemo} imo
01[14:02] {Threei}  smakkish shares
01[14:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  NFLX  .50 break
01[14:03] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
[14:04] {goryl} nemo, right now i'm trading purely with Vad so i take profit and stops accordingly, not too much emotion:)
[14:05] {nemo} great...you might find yourself freelancing within after a few stops
01[14:12] {Threei}  watching EBAY for possible pullback entry
01[14:12] {Threei}  near .40
[14:21] {nemo} if the bottom drops out lly could be short
01[14:26] {Threei}  EBAY followed the scenario but entry was not really clear
[14:26] {goryl} thanks for the education, see u all tomorrow
[14:27] {goryl} gotta learn how to crawl before I can walk nemo:) so it'll take some time before i can pull the trigger on my own but I have no doubts about the system...
01[14:29] {Threei}  take care goryl
[14:31] {dino} fio l .25
[14:32] {nemo} vwap run dino?
[14:33] {dino} yes
[14:35] {nemo} gonna' need tweezers for the rest of this belly button lint
[14:37] {nemo} shorting lly .12
[14:38] {nemo} stop above .20\
[14:40] {nemo} great frickin' hidden buyer at .12
[14:40] {scottie} how do you see that nemo?
[14:41] {nemo} well, you can see the bids, then I watched how many transactions actually went buy at that price
[14:41] {nemo} went by
01[14:41] {Threei}  prints exceeding shown orders
[14:41] {scottie} I see
[14:41] {nemo} o.k. Mr. English expert
01[14:42] {Threei}  you see 100 shares, 100K shares cross the tape
[14:42] {nemo} I feel a BOHICA moment coming
[14:42] {nemo} yep...pressure on my ankles building
01[14:46] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .10 break
[14:46] {nemo} oh, coming to my party?
01[14:46] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .10 brea per nemo suggestion
[14:47] {scottie} lol 
01[14:47] {Threei}  Attention:  LLY  trade outcome is nemo's fault
[14:48] {nemo} yeah, well, watch spy and IWM volume here...you see 2mil spy in 2 minutes, I suggest baling
[14:49] {nemo} Les is like having an "otherly" abled child
[14:49] {nemo} to be politically correct
[14:49] {nemo} Frankly, I like the Spartan protocol on otherly abled children
[14:50] {nemo} Frankly, I think I like the Spartan protocol on otherly abled children for all children
01[14:54] {Threei}  something is very unusual happening
01[14:55] {Threei}  normally market is quite determined in October
[14:55] {nemo} You paraphrasing Stephen Stills?
[14:55] {nemo} yeah, it's like August
01[14:55] {Threei}  gone are August rekaxation and September hesitation
01[14:55] {Threei}  nope... it's not august
[14:55] {Will49} so I shouldn't cut my throat yet?
01[14:55] {Threei}  august is relaxed and indifferent
01[14:55] {Threei}  this is different
[14:55] {nemo} no, go ahead Will
01[14:55] {Threei}  this is tense and fearful
01[14:56] {Threei}  lol
01[14:56] {Threei}  and bipolar
[14:56] {Will49} yes....i'm tense and fearful
[14:56] {nemo} paxil
[14:56] {Will49} not really....just trying to bond with nemo
[14:57] {nemo} PLEASE...cut your throat
[14:57] {Will49} :D
[14:57] {Will49} anytime I can get upper case out of you, it's a victory
[14:58] {scottie} lol
[14:58] {robbers} lol
[14:58] {nemo} yeah...until I knock on your front door
[14:58] {Will49} you fell into my trap nemo
01[15:01] {Threei}  hehe
01[15:02] {Threei}  I don't know if knocking on his door is such a good idea, nemo... I have suspicion he got it wired
[15:02] {robbers} Plus he has a killer bunny.
[15:02] {Will49} after today...yes
01[15:02] {Threei}  he did click something before opening it
[15:02] {nemo} fine..I'm very high probability at 700 yards
[15:03] {Will49} be afwaid, be very afwaid
01[15:03] {Threei}  on another side... there is a high chance that seeing our beautiful landscapes you might turn into kinder gentlier nemo
[15:03] {nemo} sheesh
[15:05] {Will49} anybdy who lives alone with a rabbit and is obsessed with gripping his ankles....I don't know!
[15:05] {nemo} I wish I lived alone....
[15:05] {Will49} sounds like it
[15:06] {nemo} I have my high school senior nephew know it all, and my elderly father.....and of course, bunny
[15:06] {nemo} she's so cuuuuuuttttteeeeee
[15:07] {nemo} She's gracing me with her prescence now looking for treats
[15:08] {nemo} Hey, Vad...that cat ever come to visit anymore?
01[15:08] {Threei}  no...
[15:08] {nemo} bummer
[15:08] {Will49} there he goes again
[15:08] {nemo} mmmhhhh magoo rash
[15:11] {Will49} what kind of expletive is that?
[15:16] {thomcbell} talk tomorrow guys - have to run 
01[15:17] {Threei}  take care tbell
01[15:17] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .50 break
[15:27] {dino} csgp sm l .68 ave
[15:42] {nemo} oy, back to the rorschach tests, huh?
[15:48] {dino} why not
[15:48] {nemo} yep
01[15:52] {Threei}  time's running out
01[15:52] {Threei}  POT saved by the bell
01[15:53] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:53] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:53] {robbers} you, too, gn.
[15:54] {scottie} gn all
[15:54] {Will49} see ya

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Oct 9 2012

Started day with very nice juicy FCX trade, then it turned in trading jabs with market - win one, lose one. Finished with win too though.


Session Time: Tue Oct 09 00:00:00 2012
[08:58] {goryl} gm
01[08:59] {Threei}  morning goryl
01[09:00] {Threei}  ummm...
01[09:00] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Samaras: Chancellor Merkel is a friend of Greece
01[09:00] {Threei}  lol
[09:01] {nemo} news on NFLX?
[09:02] {cipher} gm
01[09:03] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:03] {scottie} good morning
01[09:03] {Threei}  scottie :)
01[09:03] {Threei}  NFLX several downgrades
01[09:04] {Threei}  cautious comments etc
01[09:04] {Threei}  and one upgrade
[09:06] {dino} gm
01[09:07] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {Beau} gm
01[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
01[09:16] {Threei}  Goldman: "We now expect the first hike in early 2016 (previously mid-2016)" & QE3 thru early 2015, totaling ~$2 trillion.
01[09:21] {Threei}  market looks confused so far
01[09:22] {Threei}  chatter from Europe is endless this morning, and SPY swings up and down in tune
[09:23] {Will49} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  will :)
01[09:24] {Threei}  the usual works... Spain says we are fine, EU says we will save a lot of you, Greece says... well, no one can decipher anymore what Greece says
01[09:25] {Threei}  "External financial flows have fallen from around 12% of [U.S.] GDP in late 2010 to -4% in the first half of this year." -Capital Economics
01[09:26] {Threei}  not sure what those flows are, but it can't be good
[09:27] {ese} gm
01[09:28] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .85 break
01[09:30] {Threei}  hl
01[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .75
01[09:31] {Threei}  1:1
[09:31] {ese} damn missed
[09:31] {ese} good call vad
01[09:32] {Threei}  how? it pulled back to pick up late passengers...
01[09:32] {Threei}  out in full
[09:32] {Will49} nice start Vad
[09:32] {scottie} +.20 ty Vad, wow what a start
01[09:32] {Threei}  :)
[09:32] {scottie} +.29
[09:32] {robbers} Yeah, got it on second try, but scalped profit.
[09:32] {Will49} +28
01[09:32] {Threei}  wtg
01[09:33] {Threei}  sometimes opening volatility can work FOR you...
[09:33] {nemo} bug windshield thing
01[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .70 break
01[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:34] {Threei}  let's trail stop to .76
01[09:34] {Threei}  SPY is unclear
01[09:35] {Threei}  out
[09:36] {ese} I wa later than that
[09:36] {ese} was
01[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .90 break
01[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .80
01[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .35 break hl
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .45
01[09:38] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: LLY  .40 break hl
01[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:41] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:41] {Threei}  too jumpy, leaving it be for now
01[09:41] {Threei}  LVS stop to .84
01[09:44] {Threei}  strangely thin tradng
01[09:44] {Threei}  pretty much everywhere I look
[09:46] {nemo} pretty funnny...I'm online trying to buy doe permits for hunting season...they're letting me download them without paying...oops
01[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .85 break
01[09:49] {Threei}  (GR) Greece President: Greece has almost met the limits of what is possible, needs measures to promote job growth - meeting with Chancellor Merkel
01[09:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .65 break hl
01[09:50] {Threei}  If holds  .55
01[09:50] {Threei}  change trigger to .60
01[09:50] {Threei}  stop under .50
01[09:53] {Threei}  JPM invalidated
01[09:53] {Threei}  SPY losing support
01[09:53] {Threei}  quite strange morning
01[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: ALL  .35 break
[09:54] {ese} how so
01[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .40
01[09:58] {Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  CLF  .70 break hl
01[10:00] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:01] {ese} in
01[10:01] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:01] {ese} .72
01[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
01[10:01] {Threei}  stop to .68 for the balance
01[10:01] {Threei}  1:2, over and out
01[10:02] {Threei}  1:3
[10:02] {nemo} should be good to 43.20ish
[10:02] {ese} out .99
[10:02] {ese} +.27 tks vad
[10:02] {scottie} +.20 ty Vad
[10:02] {nemo} then .40ish
01[10:02] {Threei}  chart wise yes, but there are a lot of strange moves today, want to remain on a safe side
01[10:02] {Threei}  yw
01[10:02] {Threei}  1:4... darn, nemo was right
01[10:03] {Threei}  frikin CAT
01[10:03] {Threei}  look at this thing
[10:03] {nemo} don't you hate that
01[10:03] {Threei}  I so do
[10:03] {nemo} I'm such a hytraya zhopa
01[10:03] {Threei}  you so are
[10:03] {ese} well get rid of the pet
[10:06] {ese} L fcx .39
[10:07] {ese} 3/4
[10:08] {ese} daaaaaaaaaa
[10:09] {ese} well ...this is not good
[10:09] {ese} ok...thats better
[10:12] {ese} well here to hoping this is a spyders head and shoulders bottom
[10:12] {ese} heres plural
01[10:13] {Threei} Short Setup: POT  .68 break
01[10:13] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[10:13] {ese} ok.......i'm a cent up..........lem me see on 3/4 ...thats 7 bucks........i'm out
[10:14] {ese} just kidding..................
[10:14] {nemo} hey cipher, you been shorting aapl?
[10:14] {cipher} no
[10:15] {ese} stick a bunch of wires in a bunch of apples and it produces electricity...........course he's been doin it
[10:15] {nemo} phewww...
[10:15] {cipher} I'm long right now
[10:15] {nemo} meds ese meds
01[10:15] {Threei}  what the deuce?
[10:16] {ese} ?
01[10:16] {Threei}  no news for thne sudden spike
[10:17] {ese} fcx hits 42 and this will be anice trading day
[10:18] {Will49} POT s still valid?
01[10:18] {Threei}  not in that shapw
01[10:18] {Threei}  shape
[10:18] {Will49} tks
[10:19] {Will49} C & H?
[10:20] {scottie} emc s .55 ?
[10:20] {cipher} nemo I'm out of aapl long
[10:20] {nemo} mmmhhhh
[10:20] {cipher} 2 pointer
01[10:20] {Threei}  EMC, yes
[10:20] {ese} potash is cheap like birch these days.........that stock used to trade regularly in the 100 to 150 range
[10:21] {ese} borsch
[10:21] {ese} not birch.........gettin sick and tired of this spell correct function
01[10:24] {Threei}  lol
[10:25] {nemo} mmmhhhh...I could say the same thing about reading them
01[10:42] {Threei}  EMC works
01[10:42] {Threei}  nice one
[10:42] {scottie} damn, watched emc for 20 minutes and missed the entry
[10:43] {scottie} laser canceled my order, I placed a new order, it accepted it, but it was too late
[10:43] {Will49} in at .54
[10:44] {scottie} +cc_8 I'm sending you a snapshot
01[10:49] {Threei}  how are you doing with management, will?
[10:49] {Will49} goo at the moment
[10:49] {Will49} good
01[10:49] {Threei}  ok... easy trde, but scream if need any help
[10:50] {Will49} tks
[10:51] {Beau} clf l .10 ?
[10:52] {Will49} +20 tks scottie
01[10:52] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .10 break hl
[10:52] {scottie} welcome will
01[10:52] {Threei}  late CLF... but good eye
01[10:52] {Threei}  Invalidated  CAT
[10:53] {ese} am outta here........still long fcx.....takin a bit of heat but nothin serious
[10:53] {ese} cya
01[10:53] {Threei}  take care ese
01[10:53] {Threei}  not saure why you want to carry anything overnight here
[10:54] {nemo} bounce volume in spy
01[10:55] {Threei}  CLF 1:1, good one beau
[10:55] {Beau} in at .11
01[10:55] {Threei}  thing of beauty
01[10:55] {Threei}  1:2
01[10:56] {Threei}  Swing State Tracking: #Romney 49%, #Obama 47%
01[10:57] {Threei}  hard to believe the effect of that debate
[10:57] {Will49} there's only ONE pole that counts
[10:58] {Will49} supreme court:)
[10:58] {Will49} i think it'll be that close
01[10:58] {Threei}  sure but akk these polls provide such great fodder fo chatter
[10:59] {Will49} true
[10:59] {scottie} Nice call Beau
[11:00] {Beau} ty
01[11:00] {Threei}  very
[11:00] {Will49} wtg noobie:)
[11:00] {Beau} :)
01[11:00] {Threei}  and this is so frikin rewarding to see you guys finding these setups
[11:00] {Will49} YOU think it's rewarding!
[11:00] {scottie} lol
01[11:00] {Threei}  almost as rewarding as watching nemo falling from a tree when he doozes off during hunt
[11:01] {Will49} seriously Vad...thanks for all you do
[11:01] {robbers} Yeah.
[11:01] {robbers} And yea.
[11:01] {robbers} Both.
01[11:02] {Threei}  like, trying to match nemo in sarcasm and misantropy? I still have ways to go...
[11:02] {Will49} we all have lessons to learn, eh?
01[11:03] {Threei}  totally... I am almost there is sarcasm department
01[11:03] {Threei}  in
[11:03] {nemo} had to clean the puke off the keyboard
01[11:03] {Threei}  see?
01[11:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 break hl
01[11:04] {Threei}  If holds  .65  of course
01[11:05] {Threei}  target 1:2
[11:06] {thomcbell} long setup slw - 39 break if holding 38.90
[11:06] {Beau} saying find vad, good friend asked if he could get intelliscan with joining. told him no-right?
01[11:07] {Threei}  sorry, no... it's a third party product, not much I can about it
01[11:07] {Threei}  he will have an online course for free though, and 30% discount for 111 Trades
[11:07] {Beau} try to get him to join.
[11:08] {Beau} he needs to learn nemo's persona.
01[11:08] {Threei}  as long as he doesn't read yesterday's log, those logs alone should be enough as tool for convincing :)
01[11:09] {Threei}  there is no trading room with our level of consistency
[11:11] {thomcbell} slw i sold when it went back through 39
01[11:11] {Threei}  yesterday though fits in one russian saying, very hard to translate... best I can do is: "on Monday, it's best to come to work on Tuesday"
[11:12] {Will49} it was the vodka gravy on your turkey Vad
[11:12] {thomcbell} wow - we may need a cultural explanation for that one
01[11:12] {Threei}  lol
[11:12] {thomcbell} AIG still has lots of fight in it
01[11:13] {Threei}  has to do with Monday's being tough and not very productive, tbell... :)
[11:15] {thomcbell} looking for a long setup to develop on fio near 30.25
[11:16] {thomcbell} oof nice miss there on slw
01[11:17] {Threei}  no go CAT
[11:18] {nemo} lly
01[11:19] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[11:23] {nemo} look for lly bounce .35-.40
01[11:24] {Threei}  nah
01[11:24] {Threei}  market is a tough read here'
[11:25] {nemo} current spy bottom is .10 above Ws1, Q bottom so far is Monthly S1
[11:25] {nemo} we're close
[11:30] {scottie} emc l .50 ?
01[11:31] {Threei}  not sure
[11:31] {scottie} ok
[11:34] {nemo} o.k. so lly only got to .43
[11:40] {Will49} emc s below .45?
01[11:42] {Threei}  can't tell really
[11:42] {Will49} ok
[11:42] {scottie} dow s .45 ?
01[11:43] {Threei}  liking this one better
01[11:44] {Threei}  if market continues down, not much to hold DOW
01[11:44] {Threei}  no support on an y of charts anywhere close
[11:46] {scottie} in .44
[11:46] {scottie} stop .56
[11:46] {Will49} me too
[11:49] {Beau} Jerry Sandusky was sentenced Tuesday to at least 30 years in prison - effectively a life sentence.Afraid of being raped. Justice if it happens.
[11:51] {Will49} BOHICA
[11:51] {scottie} lol
[11:51] {nemo} nah, they'll keep him in solitary
[11:59] {thomcbell} darn FIO
[12:00] {thomcbell} nothing developed down there - just needed to do a Dino
[12:00] {thomcbell} i dont have that knack developed
[12:02] {nemo} I get to kill things next week...
[12:03] {nemo} wonder if some of my hunting buddies should have accidents?
01[12:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break
01[12:13] {Threei}  If holds  60
01[12:13] {Threei}  target .40
01[12:14] {Threei}  1:1
[12:18] {thomcbell} Central banks buy stocks - Central banks, among the most conservative asset managers in the world, are buying more stocks because of the paltry returns and negative yields available from top-rated sovereign bonds. Israel's central bank started buying equities this year.  South Korea's central bank's share of stocks in its reserves grew to 5.4 percent last yea
01[12:18] {Threei}  TNA, same setup is valid again
01[12:21] {Threei}  no worky this time
[12:23] {scottie} missed it first time, got it this time, just my luck
[12:23] {Will49} that's two of us
[12:23] {scottie}  lol
[12:25] {Will49} some will...some won't...next
01[12:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPW  .30 break
01[12:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  HPQ  .30 break
01[12:27] {Threei}  If holds  .25  for scalpers, .20 day traders
[12:34] {cc_8} Accenture (NYSE: ACN) has acquired avVenta Worldwide, a provider of digital . production services to leading brands and agencies across multiple industries
[12:34] {cc_8} Costco (NYSE: COST), which Barron's picked this week as a defensive play in a period of overestimated corporate earnings, is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2012 results
[12:40] {scottie} agnc dropping
[12:51] {thomcbell} gdx new low
01[12:56] {Threei}  market feels like going for new lows
[13:06] {scottie} gdx s .40 ?
01[13:07] {Threei}  chart wise yes, but I am not sure I have a firm read on the market here'
[13:08] {scottie} ok
[13:09] {scottie} will, are you still in dow ?
[13:09] {Will49} no
[13:09] {Will49} -.13
[13:10] {Will49} correction  -.10
[13:10] {scottie} I'm still in and learning patience, lol
[13:11] {Will49} yeah...I'm learning how to read my own scribbles. Was down .07 on DOW
[13:13] {Will49} hang in there scottie. Patience my biggest challenge
[13:13] {scottie} mine too
[13:13] {Will49} oh no.. that's not right. It's number one on list of 35 challenges
[13:13] {scottie} lol
[13:15] {Will49} learned thru Douglas's book that my fear of losing money drives need to get out too early and raise stops too tight etc.
[13:15] {Will49} I'm grinding away at it though
[13:15] {Will49} gotta get my gain % highr than losses
[13:16] {scottie} difficult to achieve in my case
[13:16] {Will49} shheeesh...baring my soul here:)
01[13:16] {Threei}  time for that Taoist Trader, will
01[13:16] {Threei}  addresses everything you speak of
01[13:16] {Threei}  and much more
[13:16] {Will49} yeah, I know///it's on the list Vad
01[13:42] {Threei}  GALLUP LIKELY VOTERS: ROMNEY 49 OBAMA 47
[13:49] {nemo} wprt
01[13:52] {Threei}  take a look at this interesting chart guys: http://goo.gl/trpD4
01[13:53] {Threei}  what it illustrates is, we haven't really lost manufacturing - we just manufacture things with less human participation
[13:54] {Will49} Chinese labour also
01[13:55] {Threei}  sure, but main point is - claims that we stopped manujfacturing and outsourced it all are not exactly correct
01[13:55] {Threei}  we outsourced some and automated some
[13:55] {Will49} robotics have made huge difference
01[13:55] {Threei}  don't know about proportions, I doubt it's easy to evaluate
[13:58] {Will49} whatever the various causes, it surely has screwed the middle class
01[14:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  SWC  .25 break
[14:19] {nemo} aapl green...all is right with the world
[14:22] {scottie} in .25
[14:26] {scottie} out dow -.12 after 2 3/4 hours. Who said that patience is always rewarded lol
01[14:26] {Threei}  well... it's still a virtue
[14:27] {Will49} :s
[14:27] {nemo} spy fat finger
[14:28] {nemo} or stop hunt
01[14:29] {Threei}  grr
[14:30] {Will49} grr is right
[14:47] {nemo} buying pressure under iwm and spy
01[14:50] {Threei} Long Setup:  SM  .50 break hl
01[14:50] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[14:50] {nemo} funny, that spy spike was right to the daily pivot
01[14:54] {Threei}  SM has room to .80 - .90
[15:00] {scottie} too fast for me
[15:00] {Will49} missed also
[15:01] {scottie} should we still get in
01[15:01] {Threei}  why not
01[15:01] {Threei}  just keep size smallish'
01[15:01] {Threei}  pulp
[15:01] {Will49} in at .51
[15:01] {scottie} .515
01[15:10] {Threei}  1:1
[15:12] {scottie} stop .44 ?
01[15:13] {Threei}  yeah
01[15:13] {Threei}  with this volatility, exact price points turn into fuzy zones
01[15:13] {Threei}  fuzzy
[15:15] {dino} major distraction day for me. how did everybody do today?
[15:16] {thomcbell} Wells Fargo (WFC) headlines          *U.S. FILES CIVIL MORTGAGE FRAUD SUIT AGAINST WELLS FARGO          *FHA FORCED TO PAY `HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS' FOR DEFAULTED LOANS          *WSJ: U.S. Seeks 'Hundreds of Millions of Dollars' in Damages
[15:16] {Will49} don't distract me...in a trade:)
01[15:16] {Threei}  back and forth day dino
01[15:16] {Threei}  win one, lose one
[15:17] {dino} ok, figured i missed a good one
[15:22] {Will49} out -.07
[15:22] {scottie} hard stop didn't work, out -.16
[15:23] {Will49} scary watching those spreads change eh?
[15:23] {scottie} you bet
[15:23] {Will49} have to wait until I grow up to be able to play them like Vad and the boys
01[15:24] {Threei}  60% Say There Are Too Many #Lawyers in the US
[15:24] {Will49} the other 40% are lawyers
01[15:24] {Threei}  ummm... I'd add, too many of them become presidents
[15:24] {nemo} he wasn't a lawyer, he was worse...a law professor
[15:30] {thomcbell} if today's bag holders on AIG get very discouraged we might get a long entry at some point
01[15:31] {Threei}  .40 break, maybe
[15:36] {thomcbell} are u there Vad?
[15:36] {thomcbell} kind of like it
[15:36] {thomcbell} for a 1:2 taret
[15:36] {thomcbell} target
01[15:36] {Threei}  yup
[15:37] {Will49} I'm in at .41 TB
[15:37] {scottie} same here
01[15:38] {Threei}  I wish it weren't so close to eod
[15:39] {thomcbell} yes same
01[15:40] {Threei}  let's partial here
01[15:41] {Threei}  (JP) JPMorgan projecting auto exports from Japan to China to fall about 70% in Oct-Dec quarter - Shanghai Daily- Chief economist: "What we have ahead of us is going to be terrible. It's like last year's disaster all over again."
01[15:44] {Threei}  http://goo.gl/NXHRV
[15:47] {Will49} did you find a package out of Victoria airport?
01[15:48] {Threei}  yes
01[15:48] {Threei}  not as great price as out of seattle
[15:48] {Will49} But a lot less stressful
01[15:48] {Threei}  but I don't have a luxury of couple days around the flight to add seattly
01[15:49] {Threei}  price difference is mind-boggling though... 300/pp
[15:49] {Will49} I hate going thru border, staying in hotel etc when flying out of bellingham or sea
01[15:50] {Threei}  true
[15:50] {Will49} If you add cost of ferry, gas, hotel, parking, it comes pretty close
[15:50] {nemo} and time
01[15:50] {Threei}  if I had time I'd just do that easy way: Clipper to Seattle, fun day over there
[15:50] {Will49} the rest is stress reduction benefit
01[15:50] {Threei}  no car, no parking etc
[15:54] {scottie} out on 2nd half flat, +.10 on first half tks tbell
01[15:54] {Threei}  end of negative session, can lead to more selling
01[15:55] {Threei}  that's what kept this play from reaching its potential
01[15:55] {Threei}  but peofir is profit, let's not bitch too much about it
[15:56] {thomcbell} yes definitely
01[15:57] {Threei}  finishing at lows with more selling
01[15:57] {Threei}  I like
01[15:57] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:57] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow
[15:58] {Will49} Cheers everyone
[15:58] {scottie} gn all

Monday, October 8, 2012

Oct 8 2012


One of a rare bug days (as in "some days you are a windshield and some days you are a bug"). Not much worked; two nice trades (TNA for 1:3 and AIG for 1:2) helped to take some sting out but still left the day in red.


Session Time: Mon Oct 08 00:00:00 2012
[08:51] {nemo} nflx
01[08:55] {Threei}  I guess daily denial of Spain need of a bailout is simply necessary for their bowel movement:
01[08:55] {Threei}  (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Reiterates Spain does not need a bailout program, we should trust Spain when they say they do not need a bailout
[08:56] {goryl} gm
01[08:56] {Threei}  goryl :)
[08:59] {cipher} morning
01[09:00] {Threei}  cipher :)
[09:05] {dino} gm
[09:07] {scottie} good morning
01[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:16] {Beau} gm
01[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:21] {nemo} qcor nflx in play
[09:22] {Will49} gm
[09:22] {dptl} gm
01[09:23] {Threei}  will, dp :)
[09:26] {ese} gm
[09:26] {nemo} nflx looks like it'll go momo
01[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
01[09:28] {Threei}  QCOR is upgraded by Lazard... same Lazard had upgrade on it before big drop, so this is highly suspect
01[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: HPQ  .60 break
01[09:32] {Threei}  stop .66
01[09:35] {Threei}  no go
[09:36] {dptl} vlo .50 s?
01[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .90 break
01[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  45
01[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
01[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .15
[09:38] {dptl} half out vlo
[09:40] {ese} nope
01[09:40] {Threei}  LVS target 1:2
01[09:41] {Threei}  FCX rinse
[09:41] {ese} clf
01[09:42] {Threei}  ugh
[09:42] {ese} indeed
[09:42] {nemo} lvs looking long above .95 now
[09:43] {nemo} see offer .95
[09:43] {nemo} flash order
[09:44] {thomcbell} fcx impressive
01[09:44] {Threei}  no kidding
[09:45] {nemo} it flashed at .00
01[09:45] {Threei}  1:4 after rinse
[09:46] {thomcbell} wow
[09:46] {ese} bastard
01[09:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDOT  .30 break hl
01[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:50] {nemo} or short .25 break
[09:51] {ese} crap.......couldn't get in
[09:51] {nemo} yeah, broke fast
[09:52] {ese} sacreh blues
01[09:52] {Threei}  grrr
[09:52] {nemo} classic, had to be in before break
[09:52] {thomcbell} i swept it good vad - thanks on gdot
01[09:53] {Threei}  :)
[09:53] {thomcbell} made a quick 0.13 cent s
[09:53] {thomcbell} fcx getting a bit excited here
[09:54] {thomcbell} looking for a pattern to develop to short
[09:54] {thomcbell} big gain back to the pivot - and above here
[09:55] {thomcbell} also looking to short qcom near friday low if it can get there - 62.40 area
[09:56] {dino} vhc sm l .05
[09:56] {dino} stop is .74
01[09:57] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .75 break
[09:57] {nemo} oy
[09:58] {dino} stop
01[09:59] {Threei}  no chance FCX?
[10:00] {scottie} no
[10:00] {Will49} no
[10:00] {thomcbell} tough entry there
[10:01] {goryl} still valid Vad?
[10:02] {goryl} it touched 1:1 so i backed off
01[10:02] {Threei}  yeah, let's let it go
[10:06] {ese} damn it.......i'm going back to bed clf kmx mpc......3 or 4 oportunities to pull the trigger and didn't do it.........gonna go get a beer
[10:07] {Will49} no better choice on a Thanksgiving morning
01[10:07] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .80 break
01[10:07] {Threei}  friking FCX
01[10:07] {Threei}  1:2
[10:10] {thomcbell} i no like slw
01[10:10] {Threei}  sheesh
01[10:10] {Threei}  is it one of those days?
[10:12] {nemo} grind up day
[10:12] {dptl} pay .50l?
[10:12] {ese} L jpm .39
01[10:13] {Threei}  PAY is very similar setup to SLW
[10:14] {goryl} 50 break?
01[10:14] {Threei}  ?
[10:15] {Will49} :s
[10:15] {goryl} on pay
01[10:15] {Threei}  that's what dp asked about
[10:15] {goryl} ok
[10:15] {Will49} treacherous
[10:16] {dptl} vlo l? here
01[10:16] {Threei}  no
01[10:17] {Threei}  it's thurd setup of the same kind, two failed
[10:17] {dptl} ok
01[10:20] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[10:20] {dptl} low .50 s?
01[10:21] {Threei}  I think sio
[10:21] {ese} out jam .38 -.01
[10:21] {ese} jpm
[10:21] {ese} lookin weak
01[10:24] {Threei}  FCX target 1:2
01[10:33] {Threei}  die alreay, will ya??
01[10:34] {Threei}  stop .66
01[10:35] {Threei}  sigh
01[10:36] {Threei}  I think I need some new jet lag
[10:37] {Will49} :/
[10:39] {dptl} coh .55 l?
01[10:40] {Threei}  looks like
[10:45] {ese} I don't have many crappy trading days...............but this is one of them
[10:46] {Will49} maybe the turkey gods are punishing us for trading on Thanksgiving
[10:46] {ese} and I haven't lost any money yet
[10:47] {ese} boy i'll say will
[10:50] {nemo} tpx
[10:51] {dptl} stuck in coh
01[10:53] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .65 break
01[10:53] {Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:57] {Threei}  GR) Greece PM Samaras: Chancellor Merkel's visit to Greece will be 'decisive'; a new chapter in Greece and Germany relations should be formed
[10:57] {nemo} frickin cat, perfect VWAP bounce of 84.80
01[10:57] {Threei}  what was that joke about Merkel at the Greek custom...
01[10:58] {Threei}  name? --Merkel. Nationality? --- German. Occupation? -- no, just visting
01[11:01] {Threei}  and there you go:
01[11:01] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Weidmann: Banking union should be provided the authority to intervne in national budget
01[11:01] {Threei}  The House of Representatives' Intelligence Committee recommended that Chinese telecom equipment giants Huawei and ZTE pose massive security risks and should be shut out of the US market. At issue is potential Chinese state influence on the two firms, which failed to satisfy the committee's requests for documents and detailed information about formal relationships or regulatory interaction with Chinese authorities. According to the committee, Huawei in particular may be guilty of bribery and corruption, discriminatory behavior and copyright infringement. Huawei is the world's second-biggest maker of network routers and switches after Ericsson, while ZTE is fifth largest
[11:05] {dptl} stopped coh
[11:06] {scottie} unh s .40 ?
[11:06] {dptl} wlt l .70?
01[11:06] {Threei}  well, yes
01[11:06] {Threei}  although I don't know why anyone would want my opinion today :)
[11:06] {scottie} lol
[11:07] {scottie} did you say yes to dp or to me
01[11:07] {Threei}  both
[11:07] {thomcbell} would be a boon for csco
[11:08] {thomcbell} not exactly a good day trading stock with ATR of 0.35 cents and 0.19 cents off low
[11:08] {goryl} Vad, the LVS short this morning, the stop was 45 so i was waiting for it to print 45.01 and had a limit at 45.02.  It jumped over the 45.02 so by the time i adjusted the order i got out at .08  How do you manage a stop like that? do u adjust a couple of cents higher and wait?  I need to improve on those:)
01[11:09] {Threei}  on stops I have limit a little looser than on entries
[11:09] {goryl} ok, thanks
01[11:09] {Threei}  if it jumps fast over that, ait a few seconds, they normally return when move this fast
01[11:10] {Threei}  but if not, what can you do but get out
[11:10] {dptl} stopped wlt
01[11:14] {Threei} Short Setup: CLF  .80 break
01[11:16] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[11:23] {Threei}  I have no comments
01[11:23] {Threei}  well, I do, but none of them can be used in any decent company
[11:24] {scottie} who are you calling decent?
[11:24] {dptl} well scotties unh may work
[11:24] {Will49} this is wahta mama warned me about
[11:26] {dino} merkel joke when asked by customs, "I see you're German. Occupation?", merkel, "In about two weeks."
01[11:26] {Threei}  lol
[11:28] {ese} dino ...you still vhc
[11:32] {ese} i just got that joke.........don't mind me..slow all around this morning
[11:41] {scottie} unh stopped
[11:41] {dptl} ahh...stopped unh
01[11:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .70 break
[11:44] {ese} missed
[11:44] {Will49} me too
01[11:44] {Threei}  here it is again
[11:44] {nemo} srpt
[11:45] {nemo} .80 offer
[11:45] {dino} ese, no, stopped minutes after entry. watching it tho
[11:45] {ese} same
[11:45] {ese} watching it
[11:45] {Beau} .60?
01[11:47] {Threei}  ?
[11:47] {Beau} tna stp
01[11:47] {Threei}  target 1:3
01[11:47] {Threei}  oh... yes, of course
[11:47] {ese} thats me bidding 600 at .20 dino
[11:48] {dino} i see ya
[11:48] {dino} should get to s2
[11:49] {ese} L
[11:55] {ese} stop to .17
[11:56] {ese} tight
[11:56] {dino} i'm in .20
01[11:56] {Threei}  1:2
01[11:57] {Threei}  just when you thought I was beyond hope
[11:57] {ese} stop to .06
[11:57] {ese} then
[11:57] {Will49} tks Vad first win today
[11:57] {Will49} for me
[11:58] {Will49} 1:2
01[11:59] {Threei}  1:3 target hit, out
[11:59] {scottie} out +.27 tks Vad
01[11:59] {Threei}  haleluja
[11:59] {Will49} hooray!!!!!
[11:59] {robbers} nice find, tna.
[11:59] {Will49} a diamond among the turds
[12:00] {ese} clf for you guys?  
[12:03] {scottie} perfect target tna
01[12:04] {Threei}  I need two more like this to fix the day
[12:07] {dptl} pay s.05?
[12:08] {scottie} expd l .25 ?
01[12:08] {Threei}  chart is right... and none of these setups worked today
01[12:08] {Threei}  EXPD, well
01[12:09] {Threei}  yes but I would prefer antry on pullback
[12:09] {scottie} in .26
[12:10] {scottie} stop .19
[12:10] {ese} L qcor .86
[12:14] {ese} out qcor .08 +.22
[12:14] {dptl} hes .80 l
01[12:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .70 break hl
01[12:17] {Threei}  aggressive for .80 break
01[12:17] {Threei}  target 1:3
[12:17] {cc_8} First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), Kiran Energy Solar Power Pvt. Ltd. and Mahindra Solar One Pvt. Ltd. have completed an agreement for the supply of First Solar's advanced, thin-film solar modules
[12:18] {ese} what did you figure the target should be  with vhc dino
[12:22] {ese} was thinking .80
[12:24] {ese} it's gonna drive me nuts dino
01[12:25] {Threei}  back to our usual programming
[12:25] {Will49} BOHICA
[12:26] {ese} lol
[12:26] {dptl} big time BOHICA :)
[12:26] {Will49} ya man
[12:26] {Will49} repetitive BOHICA
[12:27] {dptl} lol
[12:27] {scottie} I'm out of vaseline
[12:27] {Will49} lol
[12:28] {dptl} well thanksgiving....means you have to give something...lol
[12:28] {Will49} I only signed up to give thanks
[12:28] {dptl} come on hes move
[12:29] {dptl} target 54.24
[12:36] {dino} .48 ese
[12:38] {ese} tks
[12:44] {ese} out 1/2 dino .41 300 to go
[12:48] {nemo} cat
[12:54] {nemo} petm
[12:56] {dino} gj
[13:08] {nemo} fcx
[13:10] {dptl} pay .31 s?
01[13:11] {Threei}  yeah
[13:12] {dptl} also bhi .65 s?
[13:13] {dptl} in pay
[13:17] {dptl} stop above .10 pay
[13:18] {nemo} lly dino
[13:18] {nemo} wtf!
[13:20] {nemo} news LLY?
[13:21] {dino} phase 3 results
[13:21] {dino} alzheimers
01[13:26] {Threei}  Eli Lilly and Co Announces Detailed Results of the Phase 3 Solanezumab EXPEDITION Studies- Analysis, as previously reported, showed primary endpoints, both cognitive and functional, were not met in the two Phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled solanezumab EXPEDITION trials in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease
[13:29] {dino} then why is it up?
[13:29] {ese} what did you just print?
[13:32] {dino} sm s .24
[13:35] {dptl} fslr .20s?
01[13:36] {Threei}  I think so
[13:43] {dptl} may be aggresive .24 fslr?
01[13:44] {Threei}  not sure
[13:44] {dino} lly stop -.31
[13:45] {ese} where did you exit vhf dino
[13:45] {ese} vhc
[13:47] {dino} still in
[13:47] {dino} stop is .54
[13:48] {dino} ntwk drop
[13:51] {dptl} pay i hope will pay..... lots of room to go
[13:51] {ese} L mdrx .76 avg .78
[13:52] {ese} nice work with vhc there dino
[13:52] {dino} lly s .65
[13:53] {dino} ty
[13:56] {dino} lly bstop to .45
[13:57] {dptl} half out pay
[13:57] {dino} vhc to .59 stuck
[13:57] {dino} cov lly +.20 fl
01[14:01] {Threei}  PAY decent move
[14:03] {dptl} stop to .96 pay
[14:03] {dino} gj
[14:06] {ese} yaaaaaaawwwwwnnnnnnnn................................zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
[14:08] {dptl} oh missed fslr
[14:08] {dptl} oops got it now
[14:11] {dptl} stop over .30 fslr
[14:15] {dino} out vhc .60, +.40
[14:16] {Will49} we noobies watch in amazement
[14:16] {Will49} guess I should speak for myself:)
[14:18] {dptl} out pay
[14:18] {dino} lly spike, 34% reduction in decline after 18 months
[14:20] {dptl} stopped fslr....just can' win..
[14:20] {dptl} t
[14:53] {scottie} That's it for me, see you all tomorrow
01[14:54] {Threei}  take care scottie
[14:54] {Will49} don't blame you scottie...take care
[14:55] {thomcbell} long setup slw 35.70 break if holding 39.62
[14:58] {dino} cya
[15:00] {Will49} do you want us to be careful or are you leaving?
01[15:03] {Threei}  ugh
01[15:03] {Threei}  was watching TNA for long around .90
[15:03] {nemo} this should be a run to the highs
01[15:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  AIG  .75 break
01[15:04] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[15:05] {thomcbell} aig trying to have a new high close
01[15:05] {Threei}  yes... and I want to be a part of it
[15:09] {ese} out mddx .87 +.09
[15:09] {ese} mdrx
[15:12] {thomcbell} slw 1:1- balance has a stop to 39.71
[15:15] {ese} i'm good catch ya tomorrow
[15:15] {nemo} tna is about at 60% of normal daily volume
[15:19] {thomcbell} offering remaining slw at 39.90 or 1:2
[15:19] {thomcbell} stop raised to 39.85
01[15:20] {Threei}  ok... half out
01[15:20] {Threei}  stop .79
[15:23] {thomcbell} out slw
01[15:35] {Threei}  1:2
01[15:35] {Threei}  out in full
[15:35] {robbers} I'm out, thanks Vad.
01[15:35] {Threei}  sure
01[15:36] {Threei}  not fixing the day but takes some of a sting out
[15:36] {Will49} tks Vad...helps
[15:36] {thomcbell} LLY nice day on this guy
01[15:50] {Threei}  OK... today really felt like bum kicking competition with a porcupine
01[15:51] {Threei}  sometimes thing just don't work
01[15:51] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:51] {Will49} tomorrow's another day...thank goodness
01[15:51] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:51] {Will49} still fun though
[15:51] {thomcbell} take care guys

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Nemo's Findings week of 10/7/2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  


10/01/2012: 

Futures opened strong on the purported Chinese QE...wonder how long that "fix" will last.  Gotta' wonder if QE suffers from the same dynamics as an addicts substance usage...it takes more and more to get less and less of a result? Mmmmhhh...the Vampire Squid (GS) trading near the top of it's range in pre-market.
  
As goes GS, so goes the market?

Then again, it's the 1st day of a new quarter, it's honeymoon time on Wall Street as new fund flows hit the market. Let's see how the relationship goes as we head towards middle-age? ;-) 

The eco news for the day:

Mmmmhhh...that's interesting, the graphic disappeared...how embarrasing.  The ISM number was 51.7 (above 50 is expansion) I believe, with construction coming in significantly worse than expected.



The market got a sugar high off the ISM number...btw anything under 50 is considered contractionary, and then retraced with a green but less than auspicious finish.  IWM basically on the Monthly Pivot, and SPY in between the Monthly and Weekly Pivot, and the finaincials near the Weekly Pivot.  Btw...I reorganized the chart a tad so pay attention.  I don't think today's action indicates anything until we violate last weeks lows.  I also think earnings and guidance will be important.




10/02/2012: 

Futures are higher this morning.  This market reminds me of the movie Memento

There seems to be little connection from day to day.  The whispers are Spain is about to ask for the bailout for which they've been claiming they neither need nor want,  and that's why futures are higher.

Call me cynical, but one has to wonder if goosing  the futures, in the overnight dearth of volume, in either direction might just be a way to generate range during the day upon which traders can profit.  No range, no way to make money.    Reminds me of when wealthy athletes complain about the paucity of their multi-million dollar contracts with the refrain, "I've gotta' feed my family" Well, traders are people too...we gotta' eat.


The markets closed green approximately 50% off the highs which were the open.  They continued after the close to reach their daily pivots.  Getting that Groundhog feeling again, but this too shall pass.  Tomorrow are the ADP numbers and the ISM services numbers, so this market could be off to the races or  back in the garage by the open.

 

10/03/2012:

eco news for the day: The employment news was bought and later sold off with the Qs and financials coming back to close near their highs, the Spy in the upper 3rd and the IWM at the Monthly Pivot about half way through the range.  Still range bound. As I sit here with my adult beverage the futures are moving higher after the seeming Romney debate victory.  Oh, and this is a tweet from snap polls taken after the debate:



SNAP POLLS: CBS: Romney 46, Obama 22 ... CNN: Obama 53, Romney 47,   CNN: REGISTERED VOTERS: 67% say Romney won. 25% say Obama,  which reminds me of one of my favorite sayings by Napoleon, "History is merely a fantasy upon which we all agree."





10/4/2012:

 

Initial claims and Continuing claims worse than expected.  Factory orders negative but less negative than expected.  Market up... still range bound but it's reasonable to expect it to test the current highs.  

10/05/2012:

Oy...had to reboot and didn't save what I had done, so no econ news.  As you may know the debated jobs numbers were thought to be quite positive.  Market Action seems weak because it basically sold down after the first hour.  Would seem the prudent course of action to take some profits into the weekend.  Bad news was bought, good news was bought (then sold into the close).  This is market legerdemain. 

 

Which leads us to the week that is:



Charts are still strong on the daily time frame, and weekly.  No trends are threatened.  Spain isn't scaring the market, nor is Greece or Italy.  Earnings are still a few weeks away from earnestly showing their hand, and of course the elections....the trend is your friend, and it is up, albeit it could be choppy.  Expect weekly levels to be tested and pay attention to daily pivot levels.  If they can't push price action through a level, expect it then to reverse course to text the next level in the opposite direction.  Rising 50 SMAs would be likely strong supports on a larger time frame. Looking at SPY the most rigid resistance isn't until 150.50-151 The Qs and IWM have no real heavy confluence resistance overhead.

 

Friday, October 5, 2012

Market Week Wrap-Up

US Sees Strong Auto Sales and Surprise Drop in Unemployment; Europe Creeps Toward Next Round of Bailouts


- Manufacturing and jobs data plus central bank decisions were the major highlights this week, as well as Mitt Romney's surprisingly strong performance in the first presidential debate. Over the weekend, the official and the HSBC China manufacturing PMI readings both remained in contraction territory below the 50 threshold. There were surprising improvements seen in peripheral PMI manufacturing data from Ireland, Spain and Italy, however continuing eurozone bailout dramas obscured the slightly better data, and Spain's September unemployment reading showed that the labor market is only getting worse. Spain continues to take its time on seeking a bailout, and making the semantic case that a bond buying program would be an aid package, not a bailout. In the US, both the ISM services and manufacturing indices for September ticked higher. The ISM manufacturing index popped above 50 after three months of declines, while the new orders index picked up considerably over the prior month. August factory orders fell 5.2% y/y by the most since January 2009, however much like last week's durable goods data the numbers were significantly impacted by the slump in demand for transport equipment. Ex transportation, orders rose 0.7%. The US September jobs report was the main event: non-farm payrolls of +114K more or less met expectations and the August numbers were revised higher. Meanwhile the decline in the unemployment rate to its lowest level since January 2009, at 7.8% from 8.1% in August, provoked a minor media firestorm as various conservative commentators questioned the integrity of the data. Deeper analysis of the report showed that the surprise drop was based in large part on a surge in part time employment, likely helped by an influx of more active jobseekers whose emergency unemployment benefits have been exhausted. For the week the DJIA gained 1.3%, the S&P500 rose 1.4% and the Nasdaq added 0.6%.

- September auto sales numbers from Ford and General Motors were about in line with expectation, with the former's coming in flat and the latter's up a measly 1.5%. On the other hand, Chrysler's September sales were up 12%, the firm's best September since 2007, and Japanese automakers surpassed expectations for September, bringing the industry annual rate for the month up to nearly 15M, the best pace since February 2008. Both GM and Ford noted that sales of small cars such as the Chevrolet Cruze and the Ford Focus were strong.

- Same-store sales data for the month were mixed for major retailers, and consumer demand appeared to be somewhat weaker than in the first half of the back-to-school season. Apparel names mostly met or beat expectations. Discounter TJX was a real standout, with a nice 6% gain. Department names were a different story, with nearly the entire sector missing expectations. Kohl's saw a significant y/y decline in comps while Target was the rare department store name that topped expectations.

- Shares of Hewlett-Packard fell nearly 15% between mid-day Wednesday and the end of the week after the company offered very poor 2013 guidance at the firm's analyst day. CEO Whitman warned that the firm's turnaround would take longer than expected and that FY13 would be a "fix and rebuild" year. Online game name Zynga and aerospace manufacturer Curtiss-Wright also lost ground on big guidance cuts, while apparel name PVH gained ground after the firm raised its Q3 outlook and its FY12 guidance.

- The big deal news of the week was an offer from Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA to merge with pre-paid mobile firm MetroPCS. The deal is effectively a reverse merger, with the smaller MetroPCS buying T-Mobile. If the merger goes through, the combined company will be called T-Mobile, will have 42.5M subscribers and pro forma revenues in 2012 of $25B. Late in the week, reports circulated that Sprint may try to play the spoiler by launching a counterbid for MetroPCS, or could even consider making an offer for the combined T-Mobile/MetroPCS entity after their merger.

- There was little news in the ECB decision on Thursday, with rates on hold and no revelations at the press conference. ECB President Draghi spent most of the press conference laying out a strong verbal defense of the new OMT bond buying program from various northern European antagonists, emphasizing that rather than a capitulation to political demands the OMT enhances ECB independence because it reduces moral hazard and acts as a "credit enhancement" to government bonds. Draghi also clarified that the OMT would not apply to countries already under bailout programs, including Ireland, Portugal and Greece. The euro gained steadily all week, from just above 1.2810 on Monday to peak around 1.3070 late on Friday before trading off a bit.

- Wrangling between the Troika and Greece over additional austerity continued this week without resolution. Athens's cash position worsened, and Prime Minister Samaras warned that the country would be out of funds by November. Cyprus said that it would ask for an €11B rescue package, including €5B to recapitalize its banking system. In a rare piece of good news in the euro zone, Portugal made its first steps toward returning to public debt markets this week. Portuguese debt agency IGCP sold €3.76B in 2015 notes as part of a bond swap, its first public transaction since the EU/IMF bailout in 2011. However there is a strong chance that continuing economic weakness will require more bailout funding for Portugal, putting off full market access for a while yet.

- The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.0-0.1% and did not change its asset purchase target. The decision provoked little reaction in FX markets, nowhere near the amount of volatility that followed last month's surprise ¥10T expansion of the BOJ asset program. USD/JPY sold off 25 pips below ¥78.30 after the BoJ stood pat on its program and inflation target - the two levers that some of the more dovish analysts continue to fixate on for further easing. Notably, BoJ did cut its economic assessment for the second consecutive meeting stating that "activity is leveling off more or less."

- On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia shocked markets with an unexpected 25 basis point rate cut, its first since the June meeting. The RBA said the rate cut was needed due to the slowing global growth outlook over recent months. Notably, the RBA also added that terms of trade were down 10% since the peak and would fall further, and also projected the peak in resource investment is likely to occur next year. In the wake of the cut, AUD/USD crashed over 60 pips toward the 1.030 handle - its lowest level in nearly four weeks. By the end of the week AUD/CAD had sunk to 1.0150.



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