Nice day with good morning, questionable early afternoon and a few strong trades in late afternoon making it positive again. Shorting P was especially nice, with two juicy trades.
There won't be a log tomorrow as room flies pilot-less.
Session Time: Tue May 06 00:00:00 2014
[09:01] {Phil} morning all
01[09:01] {@Threei} morning phil
[09:03] {dino} gm
01[09:04] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:06] {troub} good morning all
01[09:06] {@Threei} troub :)
[09:10] {dino} yy odd
[09:12] {Alexs} gm
01[09:13] {@Threei} alex :)
[09:20] {dptl} good morning
01[09:22] {@Threei} sp :)
01[09:22] {@Threei} s=d
[09:25] {RonS} gm
01[09:25] {@Threei} ron :)
01[09:27] {@Threei} watching AIG for pullback entry
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .60 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} ummhhh
01[09:32] {@Threei} a little bit beyond human capabilities
01[09:32] {@Threei} grrr... 1:3
01[09:32] {@Threei} I mean 1:5
01[09:34] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .50 break
01[09:34] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[09:36] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:39] {dino} yy smr l .42 pulp
[09:39] {dino} emes spike
[09:40] {dino} stop yy -.30
01[09:41] {@Threei} 1:2 TZA close enough
01[09:41] {@Threei} 1/4 more out
[09:42] {dino} crzo spike
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .40 break hl
01[09:42] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[09:43] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:44] {@Threei} desicion to exit TZA was timely, would hate to let it slip it away after touching 1 cent shy of 1:2
01[09:47] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:48] {@Threei} 1"4
01[09:48] {@Threei} out
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .45 break
01[09:49] {@Threei} If holds .40
[09:49] {dino} yy gap fill
[09:50] {dino} smr l .60, pulp
01[09:53] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:56] {thomcbell} looking for long setup on arrs
01[09:56] {@Threei} Kyiv cancels May 9 parade, demonstration to avoid provocations
[09:57] {Alexs} may be they don't consider that as a holiday any more?
01[09:57] {@Threei} they do
01[09:58] {@Threei} there are a lot of indications that it's going to turn into another bloodbath
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) MAY IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 45.8 V 47.9E
[10:00] {dino} db hl l .60
[10:00] {thomcbell} twtr oh how they can fall
[10:01] {thomcbell} but 35.01 long break if holding 34.90
01[10:01] {@Threei} just started watching it too :)
[10:04] {thomcbell} 1:1
[10:04] {thomcbell} thing is wildly volatile
[10:04] {thomcbell} hit 1:2
[10:04] {thomcbell} for a nano
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup: IWM .10 break
[10:06] {Alexs} nice call tbell
[10:06] {dino} gj
01[10:06] {@Threei} If holds 111
[10:06] {dino} yy trouble taking 58.90
[10:07] {thomcbell} thats all twtr had
01[10:08] {@Threei} no go
01[10:10] {@Threei} rinse
01[10:11] {@Threei} grrr
[10:14] {dino} giddy-up yy
[10:17] {RonS} nus hung
[10:19] {Phil} petm could be bottoming into daily support
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .70 break
01[10:20] {@Threei} If holds .60
[10:21] {dino} trex
01[10:21] {@Threei} Yahoo! Inc Sources say Yahoo likely to sell 208M shares of Alibaba in the IPO offering - CNBC- Reminder: Yahoo holds a 24% equity interest while Softbank holds roughly 35%.
01[10:22] {@Threei} let's tighten FB to .64
01[10:22] {@Threei} a bit too heavy for my taste
01[10:22] {@Threei} half out
01[10:22] {@Threei} stop .69
[10:23] {dino} trex smr l .01
01[10:23] {@Threei} closed
[10:26] {dino} yy 60 wall
[10:27] {dino} "tear down that wall"
01[10:33] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .80 break
01[10:33] {@Threei} If holds .70
[10:34] {RonS} took db 42.50 out 42.75 +.25 thanks dino
01[10:34] {@Threei} gj
01[10:34] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[10:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB .35 break
01[10:45] {@Threei} If holds .45
[10:46] {RonS} wow twtr -10%
01[10:46] {@Threei} yeah
01[10:46] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:46] {RonS} lockup expired...
[10:47] {RonS} i think it was 400 million shares...lol
01[10:48] {@Threei} then they have ways to go still, lol
01[11:04] {@Threei} watching TZA for pullback entry
01[11:13] {@Threei} ideally from under .50
[11:15] {_rcford} How does this work
[11:15] {_rcford} anyone else around calling plays
01[11:15] {@Threei} else?
01[11:16] {@Threei} please read a gtrading log for a day to see how it works. Yeasterday:
01[11:16] {@Threei} http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2014/05/may-05-2014.html
01[11:17] {@Threei} and http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions
[11:18] {_rcford} awesome
[11:18] {dino} welcome rcf
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup: TWTR .30 break hl
01[11:19] {@Threei} If holds .15
[11:20] {_rcford} Thanks dinp
[11:20] {_rcford} dino
01[11:22] {@Threei} stop to .19
[11:22] {dino} trex to .15
[11:23] {dino} out trex .16, +1.15
01[11:23] {@Threei} wtg
[11:23] {dino} ty
01[11:25] {@Threei} meh
[11:26] {thomcbell} twtr horrendous action
01[11:28] {@Threei} missed .50 TZA
[11:33] {dino} yy smr l .64
01[11:33] {@Threei} AIG, watching for bounce
[11:35] {dino} aig gap show 48.61 area
[11:35] {thomcbell} 50.45 is 50sma
01[11:37] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .65 break
01[11:37] {@Threei} If holds .55
01[11:41] {@Threei} double bottom in the making
[11:41] {thomcbell} are u in Vad?
01[11:41] {@Threei} not yet
[11:41] {thomcbell} or hasnt triggerd yet ?
01[11:42] {@Threei} hasn't triggered
[11:42] {thomcbell} feels like one more flush
01[11:42] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[11:42] {@Threei} waiting for another setup
01[11:43] {@Threei} valid again
01[11:44] {@Threei} stop .54
01[11:44] {@Threei} target 1:2
[11:45] {thomcbell} feye earnings after the bell looking for a long setup here
[11:45] {thomcbell} getting tattoed right now
[11:47] {thomcbell} bought small feye
01[11:47] {@Threei} things slowed to a crawl
01[11:48] {@Threei} watch morning profits guys, don't let them evaporate
01[11:49] {@Threei} no go
01[11:51] {@Threei} Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday it would be "unusual" to hold a presidential election in Ukraine while the army was being deployed
01[11:52] {@Threei} but Crimea referendum was OK
01[11:52] {@Threei} lol
[11:54] {Alexs} he never admited that russian troops were deployed in Crimea
01[11:54] {@Threei} Putin did afterwards
01[11:54] {@Threei} in TV marathon
[11:55] {Alexs} oh yeah? missed it
01[11:55] {@Threei} yeah... "we had to make sure voters felt safe"
[11:56] {Alexs} but actually there wasn't bloodshed in Crimea
01[11:57] {@Threei} not much anyway
[11:58] {troub} AIG again?
01[11:58] {@Threei} can't tell... jellyfish action
01[11:58] {@Threei} no drive
01[12:07] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG .50 break
01[12:07] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[12:08] {@Threei} 1:1
[12:13] {dino} gj and lol on "jellyfish action"
01[12:14] {@Threei} :)
[12:16] {thomcbell} now im getting interested in aig
[12:16] {thomcbell} 50.44 break
[12:16] {thomcbell} if holding 50.35
01[12:18] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .55 break
01[12:18] {@Threei} If holds .45
[12:18] {thomcbell} invalid aig
[12:18] {thomcbell} still watching
01[12:18] {@Threei} 1:2 AIG close enough
01[12:18] {@Threei} 1/4 more out
01[12:21] {@Threei} Ukraine football matches relocated after Odessa violence
01[12:21] {@Threei} to where, moon?
01[12:22] {@Threei} UK foreign secretary to visit Kyiv on May 6-7
01[12:23] {@Threei} right, gotta see it before bombs start falling
01[12:25] {@Threei} stop to .49
01[12:25] {@Threei} TZA I mean
01[12:25] {@Threei} AIG is of course at .41
01[12:26] {@Threei} 1:3 AIG
01[12:26] {@Threei} my a$$ is out
[12:26] {Phil} nice trade thanks
01[12:26] {@Threei} :)
[12:27] {dino} gj
01[12:27] {@Threei} good to be direction-agnostic
01[12:27] {@Threei} looked long until it started looking short
01[12:37] {@Threei} meh TZA
[12:40] {thomcbell} out feye
[12:40] {thomcbell} made a bit
01[12:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: P .20 break
01[12:41] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[12:47] {@Threei} annoying aftrenoon
[12:48] {Phil} qtww potentially interesting, but volatile
06[12:55] * @Threei hits P over the head with 2x4
01[12:56] {@Threei} QTWW Weakness being attributed to competition concerns on new JV between Hexagon and Agility Fuel Systems
01[12:57] {@Threei} stop to .26
01[12:58] {@Threei} Pandora Albert Fried reiterates Underweight rating, price target cut to $20 from $23- Firm continues to believe Pandora faces a significant growth rate decline and they think investors need to depart the bus and seek alternate modes of transportation.
01[12:58] {@Threei} hmmm... 20 today would be nice
01[12:59] {@Threei} but the guy with last name Fried doesn;t inspire me as far as his market calls go
[12:59] {goinshort} LOL
[13:00] {RonS} hilarious...do hope you know it's pronounced freed...
[13:00] {Phil} lol
01[13:01] {@Threei} anyone but him pronounces it that way?
[13:02] {RonS} anyone who has been around jews named Fried...one was a frat brother of mine...
[13:02] {Phil} knew a guy whos surname was slaughter, said is was like laughter with an s lol
[13:02] {RonS} rotflol
01[13:02] {@Threei} hehe
01[13:02] {@Threei} 1:1
01[13:04] {@Threei} what can I say... there are some pronouncing putin as hitler... so I guess anything is a fair game
01[13:06] {@Threei} I also know a guy right in this room who pronounces bread as beer
01[13:06] {@Threei} guess his name
01[13:07] {@Threei} hint:
01[13:07] {@Threei} this is how his walk in the woods looks
01[13:07] {@Threei} https://scontent-a-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-frc3/t1.0-9/10297708_246849948834045_805647140746268106_n.jpg
[13:07] {goinshort} lol
[13:08] {dino} qtww hl l .25
01[13:12] {@Threei} 1:2
01[13:12] {@Threei} hmmm... who knows... maybe Fried is right
[13:12] {RonS} wish nemo was here...he would remeber a guy named Fried who brought the word payola to the US...
06[13:13] * @Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a large trout
[13:13] {nemo} vaguely remember but I forgot the story
[13:13] {nemo} sorry guys preoccupied here
[13:13] {RonS} guy was the no 1 dj at the top radio station in nyc...took pay for play bribes from the record companies and got busted for it
[13:14] {dino} you mean playola
[13:14] {RonS} defer to nemo still think it was payola or payolla...
[13:14] {dino} these afternoons are slow, going to be a long summer
[13:15] {dino} bustin' ya ron, $ for play
[13:15] {nemo} Fed outlawed volatility
[13:15] {RonS} but just think of all the cultural education we can get into :)
[13:17] {RonS} how about this? how did "ola" come into use?
[13:17] {dino} aztec term meaning cola
[13:17] {RonS} he don't know shit from "Shinola"
[13:18] {RonS} ...the boot blacks in nyc started mixing horse crap with a shoe polish mane Shinola...in order to stretch it...
[13:18] {RonS} named
[13:22] {_rcford} jjlk
[13:23] {dino} qtww to b/e
[13:29] {dino} qtww hl l .10
01[13:30] {@Threei} covered P in full
01[13:31] {@Threei} Fried's right
01[13:31] {@Threei} frikin TZA rinsed us
01[13:33] {@Threei} Two years after his election as French president, François Hollande's popularity is at record lows with 20% approval rate.
01[13:43] {@Threei} nice day but TZA that got away irritates
01[13:48] {@Threei} rcford... any questions after reading help materials and observing some (admittedly slow) action?
[13:50] {_rcford} Not at this time just gonna study tonight and hopefully understand the .55 if it holds .40 etc
01[13:50] {@Threei} oh, that's easy
[13:50] {_rcford} didn't understand that part but otherwise I think I will catch on
01[13:50] {@Threei} enter on .55 break, place stop under .40
[13:51] {_rcford} Oh ok awesom
01[13:51] {@Threei} this part is explained in details at http://www.realitytrader.com/tradingroom/#instructions
[13:51] {_rcford} opened it and will study it
[13:52] {_rcford} Thanks
01[13:52] {@Threei} btw guys, reminder, I am not here tomorrow
01[13:52] {@Threei} you are on your own, don't lose money, don't beat up on new guys and don't kill nemo
[13:52] {dino} half vday for me tomorrow, tee time at noon
01[13:53] {@Threei} other than that, anything goes
[13:53] {RonS} Les running the room?
[13:53] {Phil} lets have a party
06[13:53] * nemo racks the slide
01[13:53] {@Threei} whoever want kickin privileges, I can pass them on for the day (except nemo)'
01[13:54] {@Threei} I have a rare meeting with art this evening, unique event... and it's in Vancouver, won't be able to return before tomorrow
[13:55] {RonS} must be a nice guy...
01[13:55] {@Threei} who?
[13:55] {dptl} where?
[13:55] {RonS} art
01[13:55] {@Threei} lol
01[13:56] {@Threei} my first version of the phrase was: meeting with beautiful
01[13:56] {@Threei} then I realized what gates this opens
01[13:57] {@Threei} dp, http://www.chancentre.com/whats-on/moscow-virtuosi-vladimir-spivakov-35th-anniversary-tour
01[13:58] {@Threei} (I assume this is what you meant when asked "where" instead of {RonS} must be a nice guy...)
01[13:58] {@Threei} (not that there is anything wrong with that)
01[13:59] {@Threei} someone make me shut up...
[13:59] {dptl} oh i see..i didt know he is here...thats in ubc
01[13:59] {@Threei} yes
06[13:59] * dino slaps Threei around a bit with a large trout
01[13:59] {@Threei} thank you dino
[13:59] {dino} anytime
[13:59] {dptl} where are you staying ?
01[14:00] {@Threei} friends near ferry terminal
01[14:01] {@Threei} thought of visiting you but it will be really late when concert is over, and back on early morning ferry... would be just disturbing your plans without chance to catch up
01[14:01] {@Threei} Short Setup: P .90 break
[14:01] {dptl} i see..:)...next time then
01[14:02] {@Threei} If holds 23
01[14:02] {@Threei} yeah, shishkebab time is around the corner
01[14:02] {@Threei} let's see if this well is exhausted
[14:06] {dino} qtww stop .98 -.12
01[14:07] {@Threei} hal out
01[14:07] {@Threei} stop .91
[14:09] {dino} data sm l .88
01[14:09] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:09] {@Threei} power of a trend...
01[14:10] {@Threei} down 8%, and there is still potential for more shorting
[14:11] {_rcford} WOW nice
[14:11] {_rcford} on P
01[14:11] {@Threei} 1:2
[14:12] {goinshort} thanks V! took the 1:2
01[14:12] {@Threei} yw
01[14:17] {@Threei} Self-proclaimed governor of Luhansk region preparing for referendum on self-determination on May 11
[14:24] {dino} out data .68, +.80
01[14:27] {@Threei} wtg
[14:29] {dino} ty
01[14:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .05 break
01[14:30] {@Threei} If holds .95
01[14:35] {@Threei} Invalidated
[14:36] {RonS} wow 40% qtww outstanding has traded
[14:36] {RonS} or maybe 4% 10 times...
[14:37] {dino} more like the 4%x10
[14:40] {dino} qtww l .50 break
01[14:58] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA 18 break
01[14:58] {@Threei} If holds .90
[15:05] {dino} qtww to .63
[15:05] {dino} out, +.13
01[15:17] {@Threei} no go
[15:21] {dino} 07 green
[15:29] {RonS} dino to kids: look at qtww chart...your dad made money long...now you know that its good being a leprechan :)
01[15:30] {@Threei} lol
[15:30] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all
01[15:30] {@Threei} take care dp
[15:30] {dino} lol ron
[15:31] {dino} about even on it for the day, one stop flat, one stop -.12, and one gain +.13
[15:33] {dino} news says that its biggest custonmer (45% of business last year), just partnered w/competitor.
[15:34] {dino} taking some yy overnight
01[15:34] {@Threei} QTWW Weakness being attributed to competition concerns on new JV between Hexagon and Agility Fuel Systems
[15:46] {Phil} thanks Vad, have a good trip. Bye all
01[15:47] {@Threei} thank you all
01[15:47] {@Threei} have a great evening, see you Thu
[15:47] {dino} have fun vad
01[15:47] {@Threei} ty
[15:53] {dino} calling it a day, gn
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Monday, May 5, 2014
May-June 2014 Outlook: From Russia with Love
TradeTheNews.com May-June 2014 Outlook: From Russia with Love
The early part of the year has been spent digesting the outsized market moves of 2013. Equity , currency and commodity markets have mostly moved sideways, held up by slowly improving global economic data, but capped by seasonal weakness and harsh winter weather in the US, as well as headline risk from the Ukraine crisis.
Russia's annexation of the Crimea was this year's first big surprise event, and markets are still considering how to treat the situation. As Russian President Putin decides whether to further exert his influence on his neighbors, pundits are guessing at how far he will go and how much economic damage resulting sanctions will cause. So far markets have been quite stable other than the periodic knee-jerk reaction to Ukraine headlines, but if the situation escalates, it could distract from the efforts to stoke the fledgling economic recovery and to stave off deflation in developed economies.
Russian Winter or Spring Offensive?
More sanctions on Russia, not to mention the reenactment of Soviet-era imperialism, would be damaging to Europe. The continent's economic recovery is as fragile as a Faberge egg, and low single digit growth expectations could be tipped back toward contraction if Russia brushes aside western objections to territorial expansion. Even the German economic engine, which has led Europe toward recovery, could be damaged by a trade spat with Russia.
In the US, for the entire first quarter economists and companies have been blaming poor growth on the unusually harsh winter weather. Relentless snow storms across the country kept shoppers out of stores, hampered outdoor businesses like homebuilding, and delayed deliveries heavy industrial equipment by truck and by rail. Economic data got a pass for the entire season, culminating in the advance Q1 GDP coming in at a piddling 0.1% growth rate, missing expectations by more than a percentage point. That big miss has been brushed aside based on optimism for the rest of the year, and it is true that the Q1 GDP figure may be bolstered when the second and third revisions, using more complete data, come out in late May and late June.
So far the April economic data has been good enough to keep alive the narrative that the winter paralysis has ended and better times are around the corner. The headline numbers from the April employment report were stellar, showing the best nonfarm payrolls gain in over two years (+288K), and unemployment dropping an astounding four-tenths of a percent to 6.3%, its lowest level since before the financial crisis. Those data justify the Fed maintaining course on its tapering plan, and shifting its policy back toward the more standard qualitative guidance, having withdrawn its 6.5% unemployment threshold just in time to avoid difficult questions about what jobless level would trigger a rate hike.
Hidden inside the headline unemployment data, like a Russian nesting doll, were some unsettling undercurrents. A closer look revealed much of the drop was caused by another decline in the labor force participation rate, slipping to its lowest level since 1978, when women were less likely to be part of the formal workforce (the male participation rate is at a record low for the modern era). The White House Council of Economic Advisors suggest the participation rate is subject to volatility and is also naturally weighed on by demographic trends, but some economist note that the unemployment rate would still be closer to 10% if the participation rate were more stable. Should the unemployment rate drop continue to be fueled by people leaving the workforce, it is sure to raise doubts about the quality of the US economic recovery.
China's slowing growth trajectory has been a fact of life for several years, but it could start grabbing headlines again if certain trends continue. The nation chalked up a 7.4% GDP growth rate in Q1 as employment and income growth held up well, but it was still a notable drop from the 7.7% rate achieved in the prior quarter and the slowest pace in year and a half. The cooling of the Chinese property market is contributing to this slower growth. New property construction had its worst Q1 since 2009, and the total value of properties sold slid year over year, confirming anecdotal reports of a real estate correction in some smaller cities.
China's atrocious March trade data is another worrisome sign. After blaming an unusual February trade deficit on the Lunar New Year holiday, Chinese officials had a harder time explaining away March exports down 6.6% and imports down 11.3% when a mid-single digit increase was expected for both. Some analyst believe the discrepancy is related to Chinese firms fudging invoices to exaggerate exports and bring capital into China to take advantage of the rising yuan early last year. The customs administration has since cracked down on fraudulent invoicing, creating a difficult comparison for Q1 trade data. However, a third straight month of poor trade readings on May 8th could set off alarm bells.
Chinese officials insist these transitory data do not merit a major policy response. Summarizing the official view, Premier Li Keqiang recently stated that China "will not adopt short-term and strong stimulus policies in response to temporary fluctuations in the economy," but instead "will focus more on healthy growth in the medium to long term and will make efforts to achieve sustainable and healthy development." More negative data could change the minds of economic planners in Beijing, however, and raise hopes for a 'mini-stimulus' package.
Central Planning
Better global growth may lead to a pick-up inflation, which is the desperate desire of central bankers in developed economies. With economies in recovery mode, the issue of low inflation has come to the forefront as a driver of central bank policy. Inflation is uncomfortably low for central bankers in Europe and the US, while Japan's entire economic reform program seeks to sling-shot the country out of a deflationary rut. So far stimulus policy has had limited success in getting inflation back toward target levels in these nations.
The ECB council continues to stick with its aggressive verbal intervention, pronouncing that it is unanimously committed to using its arsenal of unconventional and conventional policy instruments if needed to stave off the emergence of deflation, but it has yet to act. ECB President Draghi has stated that a worsening of medium-term inflation would be context for QE and lower long term rates could boost inflation, but in recent weeks improving European data has given the ECB reason to pause before plunging ahead with a QE program or negative rates. Euro Zone unemployment has finally started to edge lower, dipping to 11.8% in March, its lowest level in over a year, as even peripheral nations like Italy and Spain are seeing chronic high unemployment start to ease. European manufacturing readings have seen a better trend in recent months as well. Most importantly, ECB rhetoric that inflation expectations are stable and that deflation is not an imminent threat appears to be true. The highly anticipated April Euro Zone CPI estimate came in at 0.7% (with the core reading at 1.0%), arresting a downward trend that took the inflation reading to a four year low of 0.5% in the prior month.
In the US, the utility of QE has already come to an end and tapering is the order of the day. The FOMC's mid-June meeting is the next one that features a press conference, and by that time the tapering process will be more than half over, so it stands to reason that the Fed could use the meeting to assess the status of the QE wind down. After questionable communication caused the "taper tantrum" last June, Janet Yellen had her own bobble during her first press conference as Fed Chair when she ad-libbed that the "considerable period" between the end of QE and first rate hike is approximately six months. At the June meeting Yellen will likely refrain from repeating her six month remark and give some more attention to low inflation concerns to fend off any new policy dissents (note that the last dissent against the FOMC majority, from Kocherlakota in January, was on the grounds that the committee was not doing enough to push inflation expectations back toward the 2% target).
The issue of deflation is still most acute in Japan, which has been battling the problem for over a decade. Since the launch of Prime Minister Abe's eponymous economic plan a year ago, inflation has been trending higher as measured by the key Tokyo core CPI reading. Keeping that trend going is vital to the ongoing success of Abe's experiment.
Dollars and Kopecks
Volatility has dried up in foreign exchange as many of the reserve currency nations face similar problems of slow growth and uncomfortably low inflation. Something may get shaken loose in the currency markets as Japan maneuvers itself into phase two of the government's growth strategy in the months ahead.
After a slow start to 2014, Japan is trying to recapture some of the early momentum of Abenomics. Household spending surged in March ahead the April 1st consumption tax increase, but it is still too early to gauge the long term impact of the tax hike on Japanese consumers. Some major firms have responded to the government push for wage increases to help offset the tax increase, but the application has been inconsistent.
For its part, the government plans to forge ahead with the next step of its growth plan. Press reports indicate that Mr. Abe will announce new growth strategies in June. The centerpiece of the latest measures to help companies is said to be a cut in the corporate tax rate to 20% from the current 35% in FY 2015, supplemented by business tax breaks to promote things like angel investments in start-up companies. By some accounts the tax cut will be implemented gradually, similar to the two-stage consumption tax increase. An early indicator of the effects of all of these changes may be domestic auto sales: The last time Japan increased its consumption tax (from 3% up to 5% in April 1997) car sales in Japan dropped 15% and kept declining for 21 months in a row, but more favorable taxes and a weaker currency should help bolster results at Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.
The persistent strength of the euro has been troubling European officials for quite some time, hindering an already tepid economic recovery, and ECB chief Draghi has acknowledged that forex has become increasingly important for policy, though central bank refrains from setting a target rate. Now French President Hollande and his team have declared they will raise the issue of the strength in the euro after the new European Parliament is seated at the end of May. Mr. Hollande wants to put pressure on the ECB to shift its monetary policy toward weakening the currency, which may be the most politically expedient way to aid the French economy.
China has sent ripples through the FX market with the sudden reversal in its currency this year. After three and a half years of steady appreciation, the yuan has weakened over 3% against the greenback in the last three months. The move has been seen as an effort to flush out currency speculators that sought to take advantage of what had been a predictable and gradual appreciation of the currency, and perhaps a demonstration that the yuan can trade in two directions, a prerequisite for eventually attaining reserve currency status. The move has not gone unnoticed by global economic officials, and drew another rebuke from the US Treasury in its latest semi-annual currency report, which said that the yuan did not appreciate as much as it should have in 2013, that it remains significantly undervalued, and that China needs to be more transparent about its FX market interventions to increase credibility. If the Chinese currency does not level off and resume appreciating again soon, it may reanimate talk of a "currency war" as well as feed fears that Beijing is intervening to mask some deeper economic issues.
Back in the USSR
Russian President Putin's apparent desire to relive the glory days of the Soviet era has led to 2014's first new crisis. The potential for a real shooting war in Ukraine is dominating the geopolitical landscape, particularly since national politics have calmed in Europe and the US.
The biggest political flashpoint in Western Europe, namely Italy, appears to have steadied under the ambitious new Prime Minister Renzi. On the broader European canvas, elections to the European Parliament will be held in all member states of the European Union in late May. The political implications are limited, though some polling has indicated that anti-EU populists and nationalist from the left and right could potentially double the number of seats they hold in the body to over 20%, which could put a drag on the dream of "more Europe." Meanwhile, US partisans will not resume throwing Molotov cocktails at each other until this summer when the November mid-term elections are coming into view and Republicans eye retaking control of the Senate. At least until then, there are no political bombshells expected in the West.
A five week long general election is being held in India through May 12 and could draw some interest from market participants, particularly if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) pulls out a victory. The NDA's candidate for Prime Minister is Narendra Modi, who has branded himself as a pro-growth economic reformer, could excite some renewed interest in India as an investment opportunity on speculation that he can unlock more of the great potential of country's workforce. The Indian vote may also be a harbinger for October elections in another BRIC country, Brazil, where a centrist reformer has the opportunity to unseat the left-leaning President, Dilma Rousseff.
Of course, the biggest political event of the weeks ahead is the scheduled election in Ukraine. The May 25th vote will be a watershed moment for the country, giving political legitimacy to a new leader after the ouster of Putin crony Viktor Yanukovych. The apparent frontrunner is billionaire Pyotr Poroshenko, who made his fortune in the confectionary business. It is unclear yet if the moderate candy oligarch will be palatable to Mr. Putin who, since annexing Crimea, has been leaning hard on Kiev, branding the unelected interim leadership as a rogue regime. If not, Putin may see the rapidly approaching election as a deadline for a decision to invade eastern Ukraine. Once the vote has been held, Russia's protests against an illegitimate government in Kiev will hold even less water. The substantial Russian military presence on the border is already influencing the election: candidates are barely campaigning, Poroshenko's main challenger Yulia Tymoshenko declared her Fatherland party would become a national "resistance force" to battle Russian aggression, and the interim government has announced it will reinstitute military conscription (which was suspended just last year in favor of an all-volunteer force).
Russian Roulette
It's hard not to see the next few months through the prism of the Ukraine conflict; the country's own national anthem, which loosely translates to "Ukraine is Not Dead Yet", certainly applies to the current crisis. If Mr. Putin chooses to escalate the situation by launching a full scale military incursion it will roil markets in the short term until a new equilibrium is reached in the geopolitical situation, as we saw after Crimea was reabsorbed by Russia. It will also trigger harsh new sanctions that will take a hammer and a sickle to the Russia economy, but will also have negative implications for Russia's big trading partners like Germany and could crimp the nascent global recovery. As the world await s Putin's next move, headline risk could lead the stock market heed the old adage "sell in May and go away", or things could remain range-bound, stuck between optimism for the future and short term uncertainties.
A Russian offensive could also send commodities soaring in the near term - gold would surge on concerns a confrontation with NATO may be next, and energy futures would rise on speculation that Russia could hold Europe hostage by cutting off pipeline flows (though remember that those pipelines remained open throughout the Cold War era). Safe haven flows would also further compress treasury yields.
If Putin backs off, markets could return to more risk-on behavior, faced with more mundane concerns. These include looking for confirmation that a weak Q1 was truly due to seasonal factors, and whether the monetary oligarchs at central banks can get the right mix of policy to promote steady growth and healthy inflation without generating undue market distortions. Anyone in their right mind would certainly rather grapple with the CPI than the CCCP.
CALENDAR (based on Eastern Time Zone)
MAY
1 (Thrs): UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI; Japan Household Spending
2: US Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
4 (Sun): China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
5: US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI
6: US Trade Balance
7: German Factory Orders
8: BOE policy decision; ECB policy decision; China CPI; China Trade Balance
9: German Trade Balance; China New Loans
12:
13: China Industrial Production; German ZEW Economic Sentiment; US Retail Sales
14: UK Unemployment Rate; BOE Inflation Report; US PPI; Japan Prelim Q1 GDP
15: Euro Zone Prelim Q1 GDP; Euro Zone CPI; US CPI; Philly Fed Manufacturing; NAHB Housing Market Index
16: US Housing Starts and Building Permits; Prelim University of Michigan Confidence
19: Japan Trade Balance
20: UK CPI; BOJ Policy Statement
21: BOE Minutes; UK Retail Sales; FOMC Minutes; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
22: Euro Zone Prelim Manufacturing PMI; UK Q1 GDP (second reading); US Existing Home Sales; US Prelim Manufacturing PMI
23: German Ifo Business Climate; US New Home Sales
22-25: European Parliamentary Elections
25 (Sun): Ukraine extraordinary elections; BOJ Minutes
26:
27: US Durable Goods Orders; US Consumer Confidence; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI
28: German Unemployment
29: US Prelim Q1 GDP (second reading); US Pending Home Sales
30: German Retail Sales; Chicago PMI
31 (Sat): China Manufacturing PMI
JUNE
TBA: June G7 leaders meeting in Brussels (replaced the G8 that had been set for Sochi, Russia)
1 (Sun): China HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI
2: UK Manufacturing PMI; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
3: Euro Zone Flash CPI Estimate; Euro Zone Unemployment rate; US Factory Orders
4: US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI
5: Euro Zone Retail Sales; BOE Policy Decision; ECB Policy Decision
6: German Trade Balance; German Industrial Production; US Payrolls and Unemployment Rate;
7 (Sat): China CPI and PPI
8 (Sun): China Trade Balance; China Industrial Production
9: Japan Final Q1 GDP
10: China New Loans
11: UK Unemployment Rate
12: Euro Zone Industrial Production; US Retail Sales; BOJ Policy Statement; World Cup play begins
13: US PPI; Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
16: Euro Zone CPI; US Industrial Production; US NAHB Housing Market Index
17: German Zew Economic Sentiment; US CPI; US Housing Starts and Building Permits; G7 Meetings (17-18th); BOJ Minutes
18: FOMC Policy Statement and Press Conference; Japan Trade Balance
19: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
20:
23: US Existing Home Sales; China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
24: German Ifo Business Climate; Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing PMI; US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales; US Flash Manufacturing PMI
25: US Durable Goods Orders; US Final Q1 GDP (third reading)
26: UK Final Q1 GDP; Japan Retail Sales; Tokyo CPI
27:
30: Euro Zone CPI Flash Estimate; Chicago PMI; US Pending Home Sales; China Manufacturing PMI; China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
JULY
1: Euro Zone Unemployment; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
2: US Factory Orders
3: ECB Policy Decision; US Payrolls and Unemployment Rate; US Trade Balance
4: German Factory Orders
May 05 2014
Great start to the week, with 6 wins and 1 7-cents stop. Winners ranged from 1:2 to 1:3, making it a "can't lose" day.
Session Time: Mon May 05 00:00:00 2014
[09:03] {Phil} gm all
01[09:03] {@Threei} morning phil
01[09:10] {@Threei} LOL:
01[09:10] {@Threei} (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras Expected to ask fellow EU finance ministers to start to consider additional debt relief for Greece today
[09:11] {Phil} lol, what a suprise!
[09:12] {dino} gm
01[09:15] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:18] {RonS} gm...can't help myself...beav gapping...
01[09:19] {@Threei} Ron,,, lol
[09:19] {troub} Good morning all
[09:20] {troub} .
[09:21] {dptl} good morning
01[09:21] {@Threei} troub :)
01[09:21] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:22] {dino} lol ron
[09:23] {RonS} bsft is...
[09:23] {Alexs} gm
[09:23] {thomcbell} data reports after the bell
01[09:23] {@Threei} alex :)
[09:24] {thomcbell} also AIG after bell today Vad
01[09:24] {@Threei} yes... on watch
[09:25] {RonS} band pressure on jpm saying trading revs -15-20%
[09:26] {RonS} bank
[09:26] {thomcbell} 51.50 reaction low on AIG looks like interesting level to find a long setup
[09:27] {RonS} jpm 116 day low...
[09:28] {RonS} tsm meat axed
[09:28] {RonS} tsn
[09:29] {RonS} sheesh
[09:30] {dino} trex
[09:30] {ese} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .60 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} If holds .50
01[09:32] {@Threei} half out
01[09:32] {@Threei} morning volatility, let's be double careful
01[09:33] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei} 1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei} stop .64
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT .80 break
01[09:36] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[09:37] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei} TZA, trying for 1:4
01[09:40] {@Threei} stop .69, touched 1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei} out last piece
01[09:41] {@Threei} 1:2 WMT
[09:43] {dino} trex partial fill l .51
01[09:44] {@Threei} *(US) APR FINAL MARKIT US SERVICES PMI: 55.0 V 54.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei} (UR) Ukraine Govt indicates that a helicopter has been shot down in the area around Sloviansk - press- Note: Over the weekend the Ukraine Defense Min commented that troops had retaken 9 checkpoints in and around Slavyansk; four separatists captured - Says rebels using portable air defense system; confirms two govt helicopters shot down
01[09:45] {@Threei} portable air defense system... yeah, those are just local activists
[09:45] {dino} damn partials, only filled 100
01[09:45] {@Threei} I mean who doesn't have couple of those in the shed
01[09:46] {@Threei} 1:3 WMT close enough, out in full
[09:46] {dino} unfortunately for ukraine, world has said basically russia you can have that, but no more
01[09:49] {@Threei} I am not even sure about "no more"
01[09:49] {@Threei} world said the same after Crimea
01[09:49] {@Threei} and red line turned out to be not so red
01[09:49] {@Threei} who says next will be redder
[09:52] {thomcbell} watching lvs here
01[09:55] {@Threei} watching AIG for entry on pullback
[09:57] {dino} db hl l .95
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) APR ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 55.2 V 54.0E
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .25 break
01[10:11] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:11] {@Threei} two-sided
01[10:14] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .40 break
01[10:31] {@Threei} If holds .35
[10:31] {dino} zu spike
01[10:33] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[10:33] {@Threei} but on watch
01[10:35] {@Threei} lol... spam e-mail hyping some drug starts with this line:
01[10:35] {@Threei} Do you have any of the early signs of normal, age-related mental decline?
01[10:36] {@Threei} I am very tempted to answer "NOrmal? No."
01[10:36] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .30 break
01[10:36] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:36] {@Threei} then again, I can forward it to nemo...
01[10:36] {@Threei} decisions decisions
01[10:36] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[10:38] {@Threei} AIG is ready for the next leg
01[10:40] {@Threei} 1:2
[10:40] {dino} out db .25, +.30
01[10:42] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei} wtg dino
01[10:43] {@Threei} out in full AIG
01[10:43] {@Threei} that's one nice smooth morning... is it really monday?
[10:43] {Phil} thanks
01[10:44] {@Threei} :)
[10:44] {dino} ty
01[10:57] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .25 break
01[10:57] {@Threei} If holds .15
[10:57] {dino} trex smr l .35
01[11:05] {@Threei} 1:1
[11:08] {dino} last try, smr l trex .62
[11:24] {Alexs} nice calls all through the morning Vad, thanks
01[11:24] {@Threei} yw sir
01[11:24] {@Threei} oh btw guys, while I remember
01[11:25] {@Threei} with your kind permission, I won't be here on Wed
01[11:28] {@Threei} I'll take silence as permission
[11:28] {Alexs} do we have choice?
01[11:29] {@Threei} here is one question I never ask my wife
01[11:29] {@Threei} I mean, let me keep my delusions
[11:33] {RonS} definition of irony? trex is pulp...
01[11:33] {@Threei} lol
[11:34] {dino} lol ron
[11:34] {dino} vwap imo
[11:38] {RonS} so, upgraded? platform now shows vwap...now at 72.49, is that what you show?
[11:38] {dino} y
[11:41] {nemo} you want a definition of irony?
[11:41] {nemo} http://goo.gl/1N1KCg
[11:44] {thomcbell} tgt watching for sideways here
[11:44] {thomcbell} and then 60.05 break
[11:46] {RonS} took trex 69.73 ave out 71.45 +1.72
[11:51] {dino} wtg ron
[11:52] {RonS} dino, my dad who is 80 at golf tourney...
[11:52] {RonS} ...says to guys at tee...
[11:52] {dino} things all over the place
[11:52] {dino} whats he say?
[11:52] {RonS} ...can i use the women's, since i have to sit to pee now in order to get it in the toilet?
[11:53] {dino} lol
01[11:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX .15 break
01[11:58] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[12:06] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[12:08] {@Threei} valid again, with .23 stop
[12:16] {thomcbell} wow stuff is just dead
01[12:16] {@Threei} yup, action stopped
[12:17] {thomcbell} two chinese growth internet names trading well here - YY and BITA both have earnings
[12:17] {thomcbell} YY tonight - Bita Thurs
01[12:18] {@Threei} disregard FCX
01[12:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG .45 break
01[12:19] {@Threei} If holds .52
[12:27] {dino} mco spike
[12:27] {dino} smr s .96
[12:31] {dino} cov mco .56, +.40
[12:37] {thomcbell} tgt almost there
[12:41] {dptl} leaving early...see ya tomorrow all
[12:41] {dino} cya dp
01[12:42] {@Threei} take care dp
01[12:54] {@Threei} SPY's superglued to this place
01[12:58] {@Threei} AIG valid
01[13:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD 126 break
01[13:27] {@Threei} If holds .10
[13:29] {dino} dead markets
01[13:36] {@Threei} shoul wake up closer to eod
01[13:37] {@Threei} (US) DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: Single family housing is "over-believed and over-rated," on the edge of a big change in housing markets;
01[13:37] {@Threei} idiot
[13:37] {nemo} I think he's right
[13:38] {dino} i don't
01[13:38] {@Threei} reiterates recommendation to short homebuilders index (XHB)- Cites falling new home sales, negative existing home sales. - Existing home sales were boosted in 2012-13 by cash buying, which has crashed in recent months. - Questions post-crisis household de-leveraging - Wind-down of the GSEs would negatively impact housing affordability. - Cash poor, house rich baby boomers will be huge source of supply in housing - Do not expect US will ever return to 1.5M housing starts per year.
01[13:38] {@Threei} neither do I
[13:38] {dino} for generations single family house most peoples' best and biggest investment
01[13:39] {@Threei} also, he doesn't understand the motive under single family housing
[13:39] {nemo} biggest, best...no, when you figure in taxes and upkeep as well as inflation, there ain't much return unless you hit one of those explosive periods and then dump it at the right time
01[13:39] {@Threei} it's not merely an ionvestment matter for many
[13:40] {dino} but yuo forget its a "forced savings account". renting just burns $
01[13:40] {@Threei} people simply want to pay their mortgage, not their landlord=s
01[13:41] {@Threei} exactly dino
[13:41] {dino} agree 3i, people want to own
[13:41] {nemo} well, depends on how much you have to put down...then you have opportunity costs of the downpayment
[13:41] {dino} i should say "most"
[13:41] {nemo} well, you are paying the bank not your mortgage
[13:41] {nemo} not for a while
[13:41] {nemo} the bank is your landlord, and the tax man
[13:42] {nemo} hell it's harder to get a deadbeat tenant out then it is to get foreclosed
[13:42] {dino} for most people, home ownership is what gets them ahead
[13:42] {nemo} they think anyway
[13:43] {RonS} said the man who buys low and sells high...
[13:43] {nemo} yeah, dino the rapacious landlord, property flipper
[13:45] {dino} i have owned 28 houses. and the one i live in i have owned for 19 years. it it worth 2x what i had it built for. mortgage was paid off in 11 years (bi-weekly on a 15 yr). what am i missing
[13:45] {nemo} o.k. subtract out taxes, upkeep and inflation adjustment
[13:46] {nemo} you must also admit, you are somewhat of an unusual case
01[13:46] {@Threei} why? any investment would be a subject of inflation adjustment
01[13:46] {@Threei} taxes
[13:46] {dino} no, don't agree. taxes are deductible, i do not have rent payments, and i have equity
[13:46] {nemo} it's still money you paid out on the investment
01[13:46] {@Threei} and upkeep, heck... you keep the place where you live
[13:46] {nemo} they are deductible on your income taxes, you do pay them
[13:47] {nemo} it's just a cash flow, and PV analysis
[13:47] {dino} agreed its an investment. most will never own a house, let alone even stocks or bonds. home ownership is what helps most save via forced savings
01[13:47] {@Threei} when you rent, you pay all those expenses of your landloklrd and have nothing to show for it at the end
[13:47] {nemo} Yes, but there is a bit missing in the marketing of home ownership
[13:47] {dino} exactly
[13:48] {dino} mortgage interest is deductible too
[13:48] {nemo} Yes, but you bear none of the burdens either
[13:48] {nemo} yes, again, it's still cashflow because the deduction just reduced how much you pay in income taxes
[13:48] {dino} and where else can you borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars at 4% for 30 nyears!
[13:48] {nemo} it's still a cashflow item
[13:49] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:49] {@Threei} hey nathan
[13:49] {cosmo} renters don't have to worry about BLM
[13:50] {cosmo} as much...
[13:50] {dino} but miost renters will not save the difference. they end up with nothing
[13:51] {nemo} and many who have bought home remortgaged and screwed themselves
01[13:51] {@Threei} which only confirms that the world is full of idiots
[13:51] {nemo} we knew that
[13:51] {dino} sure, as many do buying stocks and gold, etc
[13:52] {nemo} dino, I'm arguing the reality versus the marketing
[13:53] {nemo} spy 47.5 million shares...August trading
[13:54] {nemo} I think markets waiting on Draghi on Thursday, especially after today's European PMI showed deflation
[13:55] {dino} and i am arguing that a home can be a great investment, provided you are not an idiot about it
[13:55] {dino} but enough on this
[13:57] {Alexs} stocks can be a great investment the same way
[13:58] {nemo} and you don't lose your job
[13:58] {nemo} or get sick
[13:58] {nemo} injured
[13:58] {Phil} what do you think of MTW if it comes back down for a DB?
01[13:59] {@Threei} .10 break does look like a long trigger, if holds .05
01[14:05] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:06] {@Threei} good spot Phil
[14:06] {Phil} thanks Vad
01[14:06] {@Threei} clean db, right from 111 Trades pages
01[14:07] {@Threei} you make a good use of that course, by your calls
[14:07] {nathan} :-)
[14:08] {Phil} yes, I have been through it several times. Thanks
01[14:08] {@Threei} :)
[14:08] {Alexs} it was a commercial break?
[14:08] {dino} hum, wlp spike
[14:08] {goinshort} nice phil took the 1:1 -thanks
01[14:09] {@Threei} yes, back to usual programming
01[14:09] {@Threei} here is non-commercial break: http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2014/5/tulips-in-the-rain
01[14:14] {@Threei} out in full
01[14:14] {@Threei} 1:2 is close enough
[14:14] {dino} nka drop
[14:15] {dino} gap around 15.40
01[14:15] {@Threei} http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/67603/russia-suspends-accord-with-lithuania-on-exchange-of-info-on-weaponry-in-kaliningrad-201467603/
[14:18] {dino} nemo, fwiw, you are forgetting that threre are no capital gains on the sale of the home up to $500k profit tax free too
[14:20] {Phil} hoping WFM comes back for a DB, DB on daily also
[14:24] {nemo} no, I'm just doing a cash flow PV analysis
[14:37] {Phil} WFM over 20?
01[14:39] {@Threei} looks like... but do half lot
01[14:40] {@Threei} something doesn't feel fully right
[14:40] {Phil} OK, thanks
01[14:40] {@Threei} and after a good day it's a good practice to keep risk small, preserve profit
01[14:45] {@Threei} White House concerned as unrest spreads to Odessa
01[14:45] {@Threei} they wanted to spend vacation over there I assume
[14:46] {cosmo} I would want to see the ancient ruins
[14:46] {cosmo} the ancient ones
01[14:46] {@Threei} catacombs
01[14:46] {@Threei} quite something
[14:47] {cosmo} yeah...they better be reusable
[14:47] {Phil} 1:1
01[14:47] {@Threei} 1:1
[14:48] {goinshort} 1:1
[14:51] {troub} was that a db on MTW or too shallow?
01[14:51] {@Threei} rather BMR
01[14:51] {@Threei} bounce with mini-range
01[14:51] {@Threei} 1:2
[14:51] {troub} thanks
01[14:52] {@Threei} from that same 111 Trades
01[14:52] {@Threei} sorry Alex
[14:53] {Alexs} :)
01[15:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .10 break
01[15:03] {@Threei} If holds .20
[15:20] {RonS} lol...ese doesn't say much these days...
[15:23] {dino} took hours, but out trex 71.87, +2.25
[15:23] {nathan} good night guys
[15:24] {RonS} gj
[15:24] {dino} ty, should've dumped w/you and re-loaded
01[15:24] {@Threei} take care nathan
[15:26] {Phil} TGT DB?
[15:26] {dino} oled blood
01[15:27] {@Threei} chart wise yes... wther market supports it on the last hour, difficult to say
[15:27] {Phil} OK thanks
[15:34] {nemo} 56.4 million shares spy
[15:37] {dino} slow afternoon
[15:37] {nemo} they've been that way, indexes look like they might come in a bit here
[15:38] {nemo} think Draghi announce QE on Thursday
[15:38] {dino} think we may be in for slow summer
[15:39] {Alexs} Have you entered GLD trade Vad?
01[15:40] {@Threei} yes
[15:40] {Alexs} time is running out (
01[15:41] {@Threei} trail to .16
[15:41] {Alexs} yes ok
[15:44] {dino} calling it a day, thx all, gn
01[15:44] {@Threei} take care dino
[15:45] {dino} u2
[15:46] {troub} go cut grass, gn all
01[15:46] {@Threei} bye troub
01[15:47] {@Threei} out
01[15:47] {@Threei} thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:47] {@Threei} see youi tomorrow
[15:50] {Phil} thanks Vad, bye all
Session Time: Mon May 05 00:00:00 2014
[09:03] {Phil} gm all
01[09:03] {@Threei} morning phil
01[09:10] {@Threei} LOL:
01[09:10] {@Threei} (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras Expected to ask fellow EU finance ministers to start to consider additional debt relief for Greece today
[09:11] {Phil} lol, what a suprise!
[09:12] {dino} gm
01[09:15] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:18] {RonS} gm...can't help myself...beav gapping...
01[09:19] {@Threei} Ron,,, lol
[09:19] {troub} Good morning all
[09:20] {troub} .
[09:21] {dptl} good morning
01[09:21] {@Threei} troub :)
01[09:21] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:22] {dino} lol ron
[09:23] {RonS} bsft is...
[09:23] {Alexs} gm
[09:23] {thomcbell} data reports after the bell
01[09:23] {@Threei} alex :)
[09:24] {thomcbell} also AIG after bell today Vad
01[09:24] {@Threei} yes... on watch
[09:25] {RonS} band pressure on jpm saying trading revs -15-20%
[09:26] {RonS} bank
[09:26] {thomcbell} 51.50 reaction low on AIG looks like interesting level to find a long setup
[09:27] {RonS} jpm 116 day low...
[09:28] {RonS} tsm meat axed
[09:28] {RonS} tsn
[09:29] {RonS} sheesh
[09:30] {dino} trex
[09:30] {ese} gm
01[09:30] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .60 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} If holds .50
01[09:32] {@Threei} half out
01[09:32] {@Threei} morning volatility, let's be double careful
01[09:33] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei} 1/4 more out
01[09:35] {@Threei} stop .64
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: WMT .80 break
01[09:36] {@Threei} If holds .90
01[09:37] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:40] {@Threei} TZA, trying for 1:4
01[09:40] {@Threei} stop .69, touched 1:3
01[09:41] {@Threei} out last piece
01[09:41] {@Threei} 1:2 WMT
[09:43] {dino} trex partial fill l .51
01[09:44] {@Threei} *(US) APR FINAL MARKIT US SERVICES PMI: 55.0 V 54.5E
01[09:45] {@Threei} (UR) Ukraine Govt indicates that a helicopter has been shot down in the area around Sloviansk - press- Note: Over the weekend the Ukraine Defense Min commented that troops had retaken 9 checkpoints in and around Slavyansk; four separatists captured - Says rebels using portable air defense system; confirms two govt helicopters shot down
01[09:45] {@Threei} portable air defense system... yeah, those are just local activists
[09:45] {dino} damn partials, only filled 100
01[09:45] {@Threei} I mean who doesn't have couple of those in the shed
01[09:46] {@Threei} 1:3 WMT close enough, out in full
[09:46] {dino} unfortunately for ukraine, world has said basically russia you can have that, but no more
01[09:49] {@Threei} I am not even sure about "no more"
01[09:49] {@Threei} world said the same after Crimea
01[09:49] {@Threei} and red line turned out to be not so red
01[09:49] {@Threei} who says next will be redder
[09:52] {thomcbell} watching lvs here
01[09:55] {@Threei} watching AIG for entry on pullback
[09:57] {dino} db hl l .95
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) APR ISM NON-MANUFACTURING: 55.2 V 54.0E
01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .25 break
01[10:11] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:11] {@Threei} two-sided
01[10:14] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .40 break
01[10:31] {@Threei} If holds .35
[10:31] {dino} zu spike
01[10:33] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[10:33] {@Threei} but on watch
01[10:35] {@Threei} lol... spam e-mail hyping some drug starts with this line:
01[10:35] {@Threei} Do you have any of the early signs of normal, age-related mental decline?
01[10:36] {@Threei} I am very tempted to answer "NOrmal? No."
01[10:36] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .30 break
01[10:36] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:36] {@Threei} then again, I can forward it to nemo...
01[10:36] {@Threei} decisions decisions
01[10:36] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[10:38] {@Threei} AIG is ready for the next leg
01[10:40] {@Threei} 1:2
[10:40] {dino} out db .25, +.30
01[10:42] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei} 1:3
01[10:42] {@Threei} wtg dino
01[10:43] {@Threei} out in full AIG
01[10:43] {@Threei} that's one nice smooth morning... is it really monday?
[10:43] {Phil} thanks
01[10:44] {@Threei} :)
[10:44] {dino} ty
01[10:57] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .25 break
01[10:57] {@Threei} If holds .15
[10:57] {dino} trex smr l .35
01[11:05] {@Threei} 1:1
[11:08] {dino} last try, smr l trex .62
[11:24] {Alexs} nice calls all through the morning Vad, thanks
01[11:24] {@Threei} yw sir
01[11:24] {@Threei} oh btw guys, while I remember
01[11:25] {@Threei} with your kind permission, I won't be here on Wed
01[11:28] {@Threei} I'll take silence as permission
[11:28] {Alexs} do we have choice?
01[11:29] {@Threei} here is one question I never ask my wife
01[11:29] {@Threei} I mean, let me keep my delusions
[11:33] {RonS} definition of irony? trex is pulp...
01[11:33] {@Threei} lol
[11:34] {dino} lol ron
[11:34] {dino} vwap imo
[11:38] {RonS} so, upgraded? platform now shows vwap...now at 72.49, is that what you show?
[11:38] {dino} y
[11:41] {nemo} you want a definition of irony?
[11:41] {nemo} http://goo.gl/1N1KCg
[11:44] {thomcbell} tgt watching for sideways here
[11:44] {thomcbell} and then 60.05 break
[11:46] {RonS} took trex 69.73 ave out 71.45 +1.72
[11:51] {dino} wtg ron
[11:52] {RonS} dino, my dad who is 80 at golf tourney...
[11:52] {RonS} ...says to guys at tee...
[11:52] {dino} things all over the place
[11:52] {dino} whats he say?
[11:52] {RonS} ...can i use the women's, since i have to sit to pee now in order to get it in the toilet?
[11:53] {dino} lol
01[11:58] {@Threei} Short Setup: FCX .15 break
01[11:58] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[12:06] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[12:08] {@Threei} valid again, with .23 stop
[12:16] {thomcbell} wow stuff is just dead
01[12:16] {@Threei} yup, action stopped
[12:17] {thomcbell} two chinese growth internet names trading well here - YY and BITA both have earnings
[12:17] {thomcbell} YY tonight - Bita Thurs
01[12:18] {@Threei} disregard FCX
01[12:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: AIG .45 break
01[12:19] {@Threei} If holds .52
[12:27] {dino} mco spike
[12:27] {dino} smr s .96
[12:31] {dino} cov mco .56, +.40
[12:37] {thomcbell} tgt almost there
[12:41] {dptl} leaving early...see ya tomorrow all
[12:41] {dino} cya dp
01[12:42] {@Threei} take care dp
01[12:54] {@Threei} SPY's superglued to this place
01[12:58] {@Threei} AIG valid
01[13:27] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD 126 break
01[13:27] {@Threei} If holds .10
[13:29] {dino} dead markets
01[13:36] {@Threei} shoul wake up closer to eod
01[13:37] {@Threei} (US) DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: Single family housing is "over-believed and over-rated," on the edge of a big change in housing markets;
01[13:37] {@Threei} idiot
[13:37] {nemo} I think he's right
[13:38] {dino} i don't
01[13:38] {@Threei} reiterates recommendation to short homebuilders index (XHB)- Cites falling new home sales, negative existing home sales. - Existing home sales were boosted in 2012-13 by cash buying, which has crashed in recent months. - Questions post-crisis household de-leveraging - Wind-down of the GSEs would negatively impact housing affordability. - Cash poor, house rich baby boomers will be huge source of supply in housing - Do not expect US will ever return to 1.5M housing starts per year.
01[13:38] {@Threei} neither do I
[13:38] {dino} for generations single family house most peoples' best and biggest investment
01[13:39] {@Threei} also, he doesn't understand the motive under single family housing
[13:39] {nemo} biggest, best...no, when you figure in taxes and upkeep as well as inflation, there ain't much return unless you hit one of those explosive periods and then dump it at the right time
01[13:39] {@Threei} it's not merely an ionvestment matter for many
[13:40] {dino} but yuo forget its a "forced savings account". renting just burns $
01[13:40] {@Threei} people simply want to pay their mortgage, not their landlord=s
01[13:41] {@Threei} exactly dino
[13:41] {dino} agree 3i, people want to own
[13:41] {nemo} well, depends on how much you have to put down...then you have opportunity costs of the downpayment
[13:41] {dino} i should say "most"
[13:41] {nemo} well, you are paying the bank not your mortgage
[13:41] {nemo} not for a while
[13:41] {nemo} the bank is your landlord, and the tax man
[13:42] {nemo} hell it's harder to get a deadbeat tenant out then it is to get foreclosed
[13:42] {dino} for most people, home ownership is what gets them ahead
[13:42] {nemo} they think anyway
[13:43] {RonS} said the man who buys low and sells high...
[13:43] {nemo} yeah, dino the rapacious landlord, property flipper
[13:45] {dino} i have owned 28 houses. and the one i live in i have owned for 19 years. it it worth 2x what i had it built for. mortgage was paid off in 11 years (bi-weekly on a 15 yr). what am i missing
[13:45] {nemo} o.k. subtract out taxes, upkeep and inflation adjustment
[13:46] {nemo} you must also admit, you are somewhat of an unusual case
01[13:46] {@Threei} why? any investment would be a subject of inflation adjustment
01[13:46] {@Threei} taxes
[13:46] {dino} no, don't agree. taxes are deductible, i do not have rent payments, and i have equity
[13:46] {nemo} it's still money you paid out on the investment
01[13:46] {@Threei} and upkeep, heck... you keep the place where you live
[13:46] {nemo} they are deductible on your income taxes, you do pay them
[13:47] {nemo} it's just a cash flow, and PV analysis
[13:47] {dino} agreed its an investment. most will never own a house, let alone even stocks or bonds. home ownership is what helps most save via forced savings
01[13:47] {@Threei} when you rent, you pay all those expenses of your landloklrd and have nothing to show for it at the end
[13:47] {nemo} Yes, but there is a bit missing in the marketing of home ownership
[13:47] {dino} exactly
[13:48] {dino} mortgage interest is deductible too
[13:48] {nemo} Yes, but you bear none of the burdens either
[13:48] {nemo} yes, again, it's still cashflow because the deduction just reduced how much you pay in income taxes
[13:48] {dino} and where else can you borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars at 4% for 30 nyears!
[13:48] {nemo} it's still a cashflow item
[13:49] {nathan} hi gents
01[13:49] {@Threei} hey nathan
[13:49] {cosmo} renters don't have to worry about BLM
[13:50] {cosmo} as much...
[13:50] {dino} but miost renters will not save the difference. they end up with nothing
[13:51] {nemo} and many who have bought home remortgaged and screwed themselves
01[13:51] {@Threei} which only confirms that the world is full of idiots
[13:51] {nemo} we knew that
[13:51] {dino} sure, as many do buying stocks and gold, etc
[13:52] {nemo} dino, I'm arguing the reality versus the marketing
[13:53] {nemo} spy 47.5 million shares...August trading
[13:54] {nemo} I think markets waiting on Draghi on Thursday, especially after today's European PMI showed deflation
[13:55] {dino} and i am arguing that a home can be a great investment, provided you are not an idiot about it
[13:55] {dino} but enough on this
[13:57] {Alexs} stocks can be a great investment the same way
[13:58] {nemo} and you don't lose your job
[13:58] {nemo} or get sick
[13:58] {nemo} injured
[13:58] {Phil} what do you think of MTW if it comes back down for a DB?
01[13:59] {@Threei} .10 break does look like a long trigger, if holds .05
01[14:05] {@Threei} 1:1
01[14:06] {@Threei} good spot Phil
[14:06] {Phil} thanks Vad
01[14:06] {@Threei} clean db, right from 111 Trades pages
01[14:07] {@Threei} you make a good use of that course, by your calls
[14:07] {nathan} :-)
[14:08] {Phil} yes, I have been through it several times. Thanks
01[14:08] {@Threei} :)
[14:08] {Alexs} it was a commercial break?
[14:08] {dino} hum, wlp spike
[14:08] {goinshort} nice phil took the 1:1 -thanks
01[14:09] {@Threei} yes, back to usual programming
01[14:09] {@Threei} here is non-commercial break: http://www.arrestinglight.com/blog/2014/5/tulips-in-the-rain
01[14:14] {@Threei} out in full
01[14:14] {@Threei} 1:2 is close enough
[14:14] {dino} nka drop
[14:15] {dino} gap around 15.40
01[14:15] {@Threei} http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/67603/russia-suspends-accord-with-lithuania-on-exchange-of-info-on-weaponry-in-kaliningrad-201467603/
[14:18] {dino} nemo, fwiw, you are forgetting that threre are no capital gains on the sale of the home up to $500k profit tax free too
[14:20] {Phil} hoping WFM comes back for a DB, DB on daily also
[14:24] {nemo} no, I'm just doing a cash flow PV analysis
[14:37] {Phil} WFM over 20?
01[14:39] {@Threei} looks like... but do half lot
01[14:40] {@Threei} something doesn't feel fully right
[14:40] {Phil} OK, thanks
01[14:40] {@Threei} and after a good day it's a good practice to keep risk small, preserve profit
01[14:45] {@Threei} White House concerned as unrest spreads to Odessa
01[14:45] {@Threei} they wanted to spend vacation over there I assume
[14:46] {cosmo} I would want to see the ancient ruins
[14:46] {cosmo} the ancient ones
01[14:46] {@Threei} catacombs
01[14:46] {@Threei} quite something
[14:47] {cosmo} yeah...they better be reusable
[14:47] {Phil} 1:1
01[14:47] {@Threei} 1:1
[14:48] {goinshort} 1:1
[14:51] {troub} was that a db on MTW or too shallow?
01[14:51] {@Threei} rather BMR
01[14:51] {@Threei} bounce with mini-range
01[14:51] {@Threei} 1:2
[14:51] {troub} thanks
01[14:52] {@Threei} from that same 111 Trades
01[14:52] {@Threei} sorry Alex
[14:53] {Alexs} :)
01[15:03] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .10 break
01[15:03] {@Threei} If holds .20
[15:20] {RonS} lol...ese doesn't say much these days...
[15:23] {dino} took hours, but out trex 71.87, +2.25
[15:23] {nathan} good night guys
[15:24] {RonS} gj
[15:24] {dino} ty, should've dumped w/you and re-loaded
01[15:24] {@Threei} take care nathan
[15:26] {Phil} TGT DB?
[15:26] {dino} oled blood
01[15:27] {@Threei} chart wise yes... wther market supports it on the last hour, difficult to say
[15:27] {Phil} OK thanks
[15:34] {nemo} 56.4 million shares spy
[15:37] {dino} slow afternoon
[15:37] {nemo} they've been that way, indexes look like they might come in a bit here
[15:38] {nemo} think Draghi announce QE on Thursday
[15:38] {dino} think we may be in for slow summer
[15:39] {Alexs} Have you entered GLD trade Vad?
01[15:40] {@Threei} yes
[15:40] {Alexs} time is running out (
01[15:41] {@Threei} trail to .16
[15:41] {Alexs} yes ok
[15:44] {dino} calling it a day, thx all, gn
01[15:44] {@Threei} take care dino
[15:45] {dino} u2
[15:46] {troub} go cut grass, gn all
01[15:46] {@Threei} bye troub
01[15:47] {@Threei} out
01[15:47] {@Threei} thank you all, have a great evening
01[15:47] {@Threei} see youi tomorrow
[15:50] {Phil} thanks Vad, bye all
Friday, May 2, 2014
Market Week Wrap-up
TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: No Mayday for Steady Markets
Fri, 02 May 2014 16:28 PM EST- After a rough start for stocks in April, the DJIA and S&P500 erased 3% declines to end the month higher by about 0.5% a piece, at or near record highs. The moves for the Nasdaq were even more extreme, as investors backed out of a wide spectrum of high-flying technology and biotech stocks. This week volatility in US and European markets dried up and equities saw steady if modest gains. Excellent UK GDP data, good German jobs numbers, incremental gains in Eurozone inflation and the monster US April jobs report supported the positive tone, while the weak US GDP reading was overlooked. The FOMC policy meeting was the least impactful in some time, with no notable changes except Kocherlakota withdrawing his dissent (as expected). Nearly two-thirds of S&P500 companies have now reported quarterly earnings, and with a few exceptions most of corporate America is meeting or beating profit expectations, even if revenue growth has been clearly anemic. In Ukraine, Kiev's offensive to reestablish control over its eastern provinces has more or less fallen flat and belligerent Russian rhetoric has only increased. On Monday, the US placed additional sanctions on a handful of Russian officials, none of whom were the chief actors in the Ukraine drama. For the week, the DJIA and the S&P500 each rose 0.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%.
- Most analysts are shrugging off the +0.1% advance Q1 GDP reading, citing the well-worn excuse of unusually severe winter weather. The focus has been on the consumption component of the first reading of Q1 GDP, which was +3.0%, roundly beating expectations, bolstered by a 4.4% jump in spending on services. The latter was due to the expansion of healthcare spending under Obamacare. Note that domestic investment (both residential and nonresidential), trade and government spending subtracted much more from growth than anticipated.
- The April jobs report greatly exceeded expectations with the 288K non-farm payrolls gain the strongest since January 2012. Gains were broad-based across sectors, including construction. Most importantly, nothing in the data suggests the increase in the payroll series was a statistical fluke. The same cannot be said for the unexpectedly steep decline in the unemployment rate to 6.3%. The three-tenths drop in joblessness did not reflect an increase in employment - as measured by the household survey employment actually fell by 73K - but rather the 806K workers reporting themselves as being out of the labor market, pushing the labor force participation rate down 0.4 points to 62.8%. Analysts highlight that this is a very noisy measure and will certainly be revised.
- Data out this week suggested that, like much else in the US economy, the housing industry will also bounce back from its winter weather slump. The pending home sales data saw its first positive m/m reading in nine months in March, widely beating expectations. Data out last week showed that existing home sales fell to their lowest levels in nearly two years in March, but the pending homes report suggests the downward trend may have run its course. While there is hope for further improvement in the housing market, it looks like there is little chance for housing reform in Washington, DC this year. The Senate Banking Committee scheduled an April 29th markup session for the GSE reform bill, but with committee work starting so late in the session there is little chance for much to get done before Congress shifts into full-on election mode.
- Federal prosecutors are planning criminal charges against BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse Group for separate alleged offenses, raising fears that one or both could possibly be forced out of the US market. The DoJ is seeking criminal charges against BNP for allegedly skirting economic sanctions against Iran, and charges against Credit Suisse for helping clients avoid taxes. Reportedly BNP faces charges of up to $2 billion, and while there are said to be discussions of ways to avoid revocation of the bank's New York charter in case of a guilty verdict, the Fed still might move to take away its licenses. Elsewhere in the annals of financial misbehavior, Bank of America disclosed an embarrassing error in calculating its capital ratios, forcing it to suspend capital returns to shareholders and redo its CCAR submissions to the Fed.
- Rising crude and natural gas prices were the trend in the first quarter, although not all of the global oil majors benefitted equally from the improved pricing environment. ConocoPhillips and Exxon reported much better-than-expected first quarter results, although Exxon's lower upstream production pulled profits down on a y/y basis while Conoco's higher production boosted its profits. Both beat consensus EPS estimates. Meanwhile, Chevron missed both top- and bottom-line expectations as production fell 2% y/y and weaker refining margins hurt bottom-line results. BP's profits slumped and revenue was down significantly as the company continues to shed assets. BP's profit from its Rosneft joint venture shrank by 75% in the quarter thanks to the Ukraine crisis weakening the ruble.
- April auto sales were mixed. General Motor's sales gained 6.9%, more than expected, Chrysler slightly topped expectations and Ford missed. A GM sales executive said retail demand was steady in the month as the economy continues to strengthen. Toyota and Nissan's sales were very strong, up 13.3% y/y and 18.3% y/y, respectively. Ford was the only major auto firm to report a decline in monthly sales, however truck sales remained very strong, with overall April sales +8%, twice the March gain. In addition, Ford announced that CEO Alan Mulally would step down as chief on July 1st. Over his eight-year term, Mulally transformed Ford from a money-loser to a thriving firm. He will be replaced by Mark Fields, the current chief operating officer.
- Pharmaceutical industry deal making continued after last week's big announcements. There were repeated reports that Allergan would make a second attempt to acquire Shire to fend off Valeant's $46-billion unsolicited bid, or even try to sell the company to Johnson & Johnson or Sanofi. AstraZeneca disclosed this week that back in January, Pfizer had offered £46.61/share to acquire the firm was rebuffed, and that Pfizer had renewed its approach. On Friday, Pfizer hiked its offer for AstraZeneca to approximately £50.00/share, valuing the firm at more than $106B. Forest Laboratories said it would buy Furiex Pharmaceuticals for $1.5 billion to get access to its gastrointestinal disease treatments. In other deal news, the contest to acquire Alstom's energy units is now between Siemens and General Electric, with bids said to be running around €11-12 billion.
- The eagerly awaited Eurozone April annualized CPI was slightly lower than expected, at +0.7% versus +0.8%e, while core was in-line at +1.0%. Recall that the March figure that really lit the fire under QE talk was a mere +0.5%, so the slight increase lent some credibility to ECB assertions that the Eurozone will avoid deflation. In a meeting with German legislators, President Draghi said there was still no chance of deflation in the Eurozone and that launching a QE program was only a distant possibility. EUR/USD traded in only a slightly broader range than last week, between 1.3800 and 1.3890.
- UK GDP saw its fifth consecutive quarter of growth in Q1, with the advance annualized figure at +3.1%, up from +2.7% in the final quarter of 2013. This was the highest annualized rate of growth seen in six years, and BoE Governor Carney said the data shows the UK is entering a sustainable recovery. GBP/USD hit a fresh 4-year highs above 1.6900 toward week's end.
- The Bank of Japan held pat in its policy statement out this week and cut its GDP forecast for the FY14/FY15 period to +1.1% from +1.4% prior, and maintained its inflation outlook for the period. This marked one year since the bank launched its ambitious program to double the monetary base and achieve 2% inflation within two years. The March labor cash earnings report - a closely watched gauge of consumer "cost-push" inflation from salaries - moved to a two-year high of +0.7%, giving government officials a reason to celebrate Abenomics. However, the April Markit manufacturing PMI saw its first contraction in over a year, with both output and new export orders components in contraction as well. USD/JPY spent most of the week locked in the 102 handle, only briefly surging above 103 in the immediate aftermath of the US jobs report on Friday.
May 02 2014
Jerky action in the morning dug a hole, afternoon was spent to fill it. Ended flat. Some days are like that.
Session Time: Fri May 02 00:00:00 2014
[08:50] {dptl} good morning
01[08:51] {@Threei} morning dp
[08:55] {thomcbell} gm guys
01[08:56] {@Threei} thom :)
[08:57] {dino} gm
01[08:57] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:00] {Phil} gm all
01[09:00] {@Threei} phil :)
[09:01] {dino} 3i, you'll appreciate this...spring time has officially arrived for me in north east pennsylvania. proof of this, a tee time today at 1:00.
01[09:03] {@Threei} lol
01[09:03] {@Threei} nathan would say you stress yourself too much
[09:05] {troub} good morning
01[09:05] {@Threei} troub :)
[09:05] {dino} :)
[09:06] {dino} when golf becomes stressful, i will give it up.
01[09:06] {@Threei} oh come on, don't be a quitter... endure
[09:08] {dino} if would have been better word
01[09:08] {@Threei} :)
01[09:14] {@Threei} finally: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27228416
[09:16] {Phil} interesting
01[09:17] {@Threei} article mentions that it might have trading implications, and I am sure it is
01[09:17] {@Threei} observed people losing on long side on some stoxk, and immediately trying to short it
01[09:17] {@Threei} same idea
[09:18] {Phil} thats what I was thinking, next time i'm in a losing prosition im going to cut the lead on my mouse and hit it with a rock
01[09:19] {@Threei} sounds about right
[09:22] {goinshort} morning all from rainy florida
01[09:22] {@Threei} gs :)
[09:23] {RonS} gm
01[09:23] {@Threei} ron )
[09:26] {cosmo} Tampa?
[09:28] {goinshort} panama city beach
[09:29] {ese} mornin
01[09:29] {@Threei} today risk of a sudden market move is larger... Ukraine troops resumed operation in Slavyansk, center of separatists activity... if they start looking like suuceeding, that's pretext Russia needs to invade
01[09:29] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .15 break
01[09:30] {@Threei} If holds .05
01[09:31] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: C .75 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .85
01[09:32] {@Threei} yuck
01[09:32] {@Threei} no go
[09:36] {nathan} morning gents
01[09:36] {@Threei} morning nathan
[09:36] {dino} expe hl l .15
[09:38] {dino} out expe .24, +1.09
[09:39] {dino} no takers?
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .70 break hl break
[09:39] {nemo} spy likely to try for the premarket high
[09:39] {Alexs} gm
01[09:39] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[09:39] {@Threei} ales :)
[09:40] {Alexs} what setup?
01[09:40] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .40 break hl
[09:42] {dino} open all over the tape
01[09:42] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[09:42] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:43] {@Threei} last one, .25 break
01[09:43] {@Threei} If holds .15
01[09:43] {@Threei} invalidated too
01[09:45] {@Threei} Long Setup: JPM .10 break
01[09:45] {@Threei} If holds 56
01[09:47] {@Threei} Obama, Merkel to display unity against Russia
01[09:47] {@Threei} Putin: I can't be third??
01[09:48] {@Threei} stop to .04
[09:48] {dino} 1/3 germanys oil/gas comes from russia
01[09:48] {@Threei} meh
[09:49] {dino} expe lod
01[09:49] {@Threei} when have time, read this: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/merkel-says-world-war-horrors-underline-need-for-diplomacy-with-russia/499298.html
[09:49] {nathan} MSFT falling
01[09:50] {@Threei} watching FB for pullback
01[09:50] {@Threei} finally showed some green
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .90 break hlf
01[09:50] {@Threei} If holds .80
[09:51] {dino} something seems off in markets
01[09:51] {@Threei} hesitance...
[09:52] {dino} feels like big drop coming....maybe its just me
01[09:52] {@Threei} no
01[09:52] {@Threei} no go
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .05 break
01[09:53] {@Threei} If holds .95
[09:55] {ese} L wprt .49
[09:58] {thomcbell} akam looks vulnerable to profit taking after that down move
[09:59] {dino} out tza flat
[09:59] {ese} out wprt .52 +.03 was chasing it didn't do what i wanted
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) MAR FACTORY ORDERS: 1.1% V 1.5%E
01[09:59] {@Threei} stop to .99
01[10:01] {@Threei} out
01[10:01] {@Threei} not our morning
[10:01] {nathan} out
01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .30 break
01[10:02] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:04] {@Threei} valid still
01[10:08] {@Threei} stop to .24
01[10:09] {@Threei} what the deuce with turning around couple cents before target
01[10:09] {@Threei} that would be a third trade doing that
01[10:10] {@Threei} half out
01[10:10] {@Threei} stop .29
01[10:10] {@Threei} if that's what market does today, let's adapt
[10:11] {ese} L mack .33
01[10:11] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:12] {nathan} 1:1 tx Vad
01[10:12] {@Threei} yw
[10:16] {thomcbell} akam
[10:16] {thomcbell} was too jumpy
[10:16] {troub} have to run, good to finish with a winner.have a good weekend all.
[10:16] {ese} atta boy troub
01[10:16] {@Threei} take care troub, have a good one
01[10:17] {@Threei} (UR) Ukraine acting Pres: Operations in Sloviansk are continuing, two Ukraine soldiers have died
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .80 break
01[10:20] {@Threei} If holds .73
[10:21] {Alexs} two sided?
01[10:21] {@Threei} nah
01[10:21] {@Threei} long or no play
01[10:29] {@Threei} remember I said yesterday Putin appreciates IMF loans to Ukraine?
01[10:29] {@Threei} Russia expects Ukraine to spend part of IMF loan toward clearing gas debt
01[10:29] {@Threei} there
[10:30] {dino} like getting paid to invade
[10:31] {Alexs} I don't think it's in the plans of Ukrainians
01[10:32] {@Threei} no, they hope to steal it without paying anything to anyone
[10:32] {Alexs} lol
[10:32] {Alexs} that's what I meant
[10:35] {nathan} will bounce TZA?
[10:36] {nathan} there's the answer
01[10:37] {@Threei} if setup shapes up
[10:37] {nathan} broke the lod
01[10:37] {@Threei} don't guess
01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .65 break
01[10:40] {@Threei} If holds .75
01[10:41] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:46] {Alexs} Actually Europa expects to get most of the money IMF gives to Ukraine http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/01/us-ukraine-crisis-debts-imf-idUSBREA400TS20140501
01[10:46] {@Threei} Ukraine is very upset by all the competition
01[10:48] {@Threei} drop came out of nowehere
[10:48] {nathan} dino, there it goes your perception
01[10:48] {@Threei} no setup
01[10:48] {@Threei} [09:29] {@Threei} today risk of a sudden market move is larger... Ukraine troops resumed operation in Slavyansk, center of separatists activity... if they start looking like suuceeding, that's pretext Russia needs to invade
[10:48] {nathan} and vad ;-)
[10:49] {nathan} didnt read it before
01[10:49] {@Threei} I just wish there was any sign of reversal
[10:49] {nathan} hope si
[10:49] {nathan} so
[10:50] {ese} heck of a mrkt drop
[10:50] {dino} see that nathan
[10:50] {dino} but got sidetracked, no plays
[10:57] {nathan} watching AIG
01[10:59] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .50 break
01[10:59] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[11:00] {@Threei} Invalidated
[11:00] {nathan} or short if breaks .40?
01[11:00] {@Threei} nah'
[11:01] {dino} lol, got lucky. took some ibtx in last hour yesterday at 46.46, just sold 47.61, +1.15
[11:01] {nathan} still valid?
[11:01] {dino} things a bitch to get out of, major hooker
01[11:01] {@Threei} nah'no
01[11:01] {@Threei} no
[11:02] {Alexs} if ukrainian troops succeed that's pretext for Russian invasion if they fail that's pretext for peaceful annexation
[11:02] {dino} ngs spike
01[11:02] {@Threei} exactly Alex
[11:02] {dino} too thin
01[11:02] {@Threei} that's the position Ukraine is in
01[11:02] {@Threei} damned if you do, damned if you don't
01[11:03] {@Threei} either way country is getting ripped apart
01[11:03] {@Threei} and moral of the story for the rest of the world is, never give up your nukes
[11:04] {dino} exactly
[11:04] {dino} peace thru strength
01[11:04] {@Threei} the only lasting peace...
[11:08] {Alexs} In Europe only France and Great Britain have nuclear weapons and everybody else don't feel bad
[11:08] {thomcbell} Friday, May 02, 2014 11:01:57 AM Alibaba.com Ltd Likely to file for IPO on Monday or Tuesday - Recode's Swisher on CNBC - Source TradeTheNews.com
01[11:08] {@Threei} YHOO shot up
02[11:12] * Disconnected
Session Close: Fri May 02 11:12:42 2014
Session Start: Fri May 02 11:12:42 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[11:21] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[11:21] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[11:22] {Threei} something with connection here
[11:22] {dptl} there you are
01[11:22] {Threei} lost room and quotes
01[11:22] {Threei} just now coming back
01[11:24] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .35 break
01[11:24] {Threei} If holds .25
01[11:24] {Threei} aggressive entry for .40
[11:24] {thomcbell} mpel looking for short setup
[11:24] {thomcbell} inverted cup and handle
[11:24] {thomcbell} or cup
[11:25] {dino} ese, lol
01[11:25] {Threei} this VXX should be a larger trade, not a scalp
[11:25] {dino} calling it a good week, thx all, good luck into close
01[11:25] {Threei} take care dino, see you Monday
[11:26] {dino} ty
[11:27] {thomcbell} mpel disregard
01[11:29] {Threei} 1:1
01[11:30] {Threei} grrr... just a scalp
[11:31] {Alexs} not bad currently
01[11:31] {Threei} really looked like major breakdown in SPY was coming
01[11:36] {Threei} Interim President Oleksandr Turchynov said the Ukrainian forces' attack on the checkpoints in Sloviansk on May 2 left "many insurgents dead, wounded and arrested."
01[11:38] {Threei} http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/05/02/p18muo40fj107i1urmr8an77one4/original.jpg
01[11:38] {Threei} I am telling you guys... seeing this kind of images from your motherland is beyond surreal
01[11:46] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD .30 break
01[11:46] {Threei} If holds .40
[11:47] {ese} am outta here stoped balnce mack .34 +/-.00 have a great weekend all
01[11:48] {Threei} take care ese
[11:48] {nathan} have a great wekeend too. see you on monday
01[11:48] {Threei} you too nathan
[11:48] {nemo} watch 62.10 area for yelp short
[11:50] {nemo} vrsn might be a long above .45 stop under .38 time of day rough
[11:54] {Alexs} are you in GLD Vad?
01[11:54] {Threei} yes
[11:54] {nemo} well, now vrsn below .35 looks short because holding under .40
01[12:09] {Threei} half out GLD
01[12:09] {Threei} stop to .36
01[12:10] {Threei} 1:1
01[12:10] {Threei} finally
01[12:11] {Threei} 1/4 more out
[12:12] {nemo} vrsn at .20 likely bounce around .16
01[12:19] {Threei} stop .26
01[12:32] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .15 break
01[12:32] {Threei} If holds .05
01[12:47] {Threei} change to .10 break
01[12:56] {Threei} not every day you see VXX unable to break 5 cents range
[12:56] {nemo} iwm forming pennant
[12:56] {nemo} right on the weekly pivot
01[13:02] {Threei} ok
01[13:02] {Threei} time
01[13:02] {Threei} let's go VXX
01[13:03] {Threei} BBc tightened
01[13:03] {Threei} BBs too
[13:03] {Alexs} CNN too?
01[13:04] {Threei} lol
01[13:04] {Threei} before I met you lot, I had no idea bad humor is that contagious
[13:04] {Alexs} lol
01[13:06] {Threei} that was last headfake, break and run now
01[13:10] {Threei} half out
01[13:14] {Threei} 1:1
01[13:15] {Threei} 10 cents feel like a real feat, lol
[13:16] {nemo} August trading
[13:17] {Alexs} last August was very good
01[13:17] {Threei} I don't think it's seasonal
01[13:17] {Threei} I think it's big indecisiveness
[13:17] {nemo} it's all HFT's fault
01[13:17] {Threei} but of course.... what isn't
[13:17] {nemo} Global warming too
[13:18] {Alexs} incom inequlity
[13:18] {Alexs} income
01[13:20] {Threei} stubbed my toe yesterday in the dark... first thought was "damn HFT"
01[13:21] {Threei} 1/4 more out
01[13:23] {Threei} stop .14
01[13:26] {Threei} Alex, you read that article?
[13:27] {Alexs} which one?
01[13:28] {Threei} http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/merkel-says-world-war-horrors-underline-need-for-diplomacy-with-russia/499298.html
01[13:28] {Threei} stop to .18 meanwhile
01[13:29] {Threei} 1:2
[13:30] {Alexs} what else they can say
01[13:30] {Threei} well, point is, NATO membeship is not likely to protect Baltic countries very much
[13:30] {Alexs} no idon't see it like that
[13:32] {Alexs} if NATO won't protect their allies it will kill itself
01[13:32] {Threei} yup
[13:32] {nemo} NATO is the US the rest are pussies
01[13:32] {Threei} Europe has no guts to fight
01[13:33] {Threei} and US is not willing to solve Europe problems without Europe participation anymore
01[13:33] {Threei} they will sanction Russia, one person at a time
01[13:34] {Threei} 7 individuals sanctioned for Crimea... 20 more for Ukraine... 13 for Latvia...
01[13:34] {Threei} etc
[13:34] {Alexs} Ukraine is not a NATO member, they had 20 years to get there just was to busy stealing others money that's the problem
01[13:34] {Threei} by the time Russian empire is restored, maybe 300 will be sanctioned
[13:46] {RonS} lnkd set to run the 150.00 stops
01[13:47] {Threei} closed VXX
[13:47] {thomcbell} UBNT 41 long break if holding 40.90
[13:48] {thomcbell} to nullify my so soon
[13:48] {thomcbell} invalidated
[13:48] {thomcbell} still watching it
01[13:58] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .10 break
01[13:58] {Threei} If holds 17
[14:02] {nemo} good bounce spot for rig
[14:05] {cosmo} Couldn't individuals on both sides be sanctioned?
[14:05] {cosmo} if that's the right word...
01[14:06] {Threei} both sides?
[14:06] {RonS} add it as an Olympic event?
[14:06] {cosmo} east/west
01[14:06] {Threei} meaning, Russia will ban HIllary's daughter from taking courses in Kaluga univercity?
[14:06] {cosmo} exactly :)
01[14:06] {Threei} hehe
[14:07] {cosmo} that's how it starts
[14:10] {nemo} this likely bottom in indexes
01[14:18] {Threei} Security Council holds emergency Ukraine meeting
01[14:20] {Threei} {Security Council} we might not have another chance as Ukraine is about to disintegrate, so why not, right?
01[14:23] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .25 break
01[14:23] {Threei} If holds .15
01[14:24] {Threei} change to .20 break
01[14:26] {Threei} Invalidated
01[14:31] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .10 break
01[14:31] {Threei} If holds 112
[14:36] {thomcbell} nice call on bottom nemo
01[14:36] {Threei} 1:1
[14:40] {nemo} spy needs to hold above .15 or we might not have seen the bottom, but imo they keep it above 188 and gap up Monday to new all time highs
[14:40] {nemo} anybody want the winning megamillions numbers for tonight?
01[14:40] {Threei} nah, just send me 10%
[14:41] {Alexs} lol
[14:41] {nemo} frickin' copper wire inventors
[14:42] {goinshort} thanks guys -cya
01[14:43] {Threei} take care gs
[14:43] {nemo} think GS's last name is Blankfein?
[14:44] {Phil} Thanks Vad, have a great weekend guys
[14:47] {RonS} hey nemo, what decade did those "whadya call a man w/ no arms or legs in the/a..." jokes come around?
[14:47] {nemo} don't know, but phil set you off, huh?
[14:48] {RonS} ya: whadya call a man with no arms or legs in a hole?...
[14:48] {nemo} Phil or doug
[14:49] {RonS} ...in a pool?
[14:49] {nemo} bob
[14:49] {RonS} cna never remember the answer to "hanging on a wall"?
[14:49] {nemo} Art
[14:49] {RonS} ah
[14:50] {RonS} and I always thought that was the funniest...
[14:50] {nemo} Why You Should Never, Ever, Question A Drunk...
[14:50] {nemo} Sally was shopping at the local supermarket where she selected:
[14:50] {nemo} A half-gallon of 2% milk
[14:50] {nemo} A carton of eggs
[14:50] {nemo} A quart of orange juice
[14:50] {nemo} A head of lettuce
[14:50] {nemo} A 2 lb. can of coffee
[14:50] {nemo} A 1 lb. package of bacon
[14:50] {nemo} While she was unloading my items on the conveyor belt to check out, a drunk standing behind her watched as she placed the items in front of the cashier.
[14:50] {nemo} While the cashier was ringing up the purchases, the drunk calmly stated, 'You must be single.'
[14:50] {nemo} She was a bit startled by this proclamation, but was intrigued by the derelict's intuition, since she indeed had never found Mr. Right.
[14:50] {nemo} She looked at the six items on the belt and saw nothing particularly unusual about the selections that could have tipped off the drunk to her marital status.
[14:51] {nemo} Curiosity getting the better of her she said, 'Yes you are correct. But how on earth did you know that?'
[14:51] {nemo} The drunk replied, 'Cause you're ugly.
[14:51] {dptl} great...now i have to scroll
01[14:52] {Threei} lol
[14:52] {RonS} whatever year that was, it was a good one...my recollection is that the "coyote love" jokes hit then too...
[14:52] {nemo} oh gawd
[14:54] {nemo} well we got cup and handles if the indexes gonna make vwap runs
01[14:55] {Threei} Long Setup: AIG .30 break
01[14:55] {Threei} If holds .20
[14:57] {nemo} finnies weak
[15:06] {dptl} have a good weekend all...see ya monday
01[15:06] {Threei} half out
01[15:06] {Threei} take care dp
01[15:08] {Threei} 1:1
01[15:08] {Threei} digging out from morning hole
01[15:08] {Threei} trade by trade...
[15:08] {nemo} slowly I turned
[15:08] {nemo} inch by inch
[15:08] {nemo} step by step
01[15:09] {Threei} 1:1 MORE out
01[15:09] {Threei} hmmm
01[15:09] {Threei} let me try again
01[15:09] {Threei} 1/4 more out
01[15:09] {Threei} there
[15:09] {nemo} http://goo.gl/4kojBW
01[15:10] {Threei} lol
[15:12] {RonS} thanks for aig 3i, good one...have a nice weekend all
01[15:13] {Threei} have a good one ron
01[15:30] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .20 break
01[15:30] {Threei} If holds .20
[15:40] {Alexs} stop .10?
01[15:40] {Threei} for now
01[15:40] {Threei} will tighten soon'
01[15:42] {Threei} .14 now
01[15:45] {Threei} ok
01[15:45] {Threei} no means now
01[15:45] {Threei} thank you all, have a good weekend
01[15:45] {Threei} see you Monday
[15:48] {thomcbell} gn all
Session Time: Fri May 02 00:00:00 2014
[08:50] {dptl} good morning
01[08:51] {@Threei} morning dp
[08:55] {thomcbell} gm guys
01[08:56] {@Threei} thom :)
[08:57] {dino} gm
01[08:57] {@Threei} dino :)
[09:00] {Phil} gm all
01[09:00] {@Threei} phil :)
[09:01] {dino} 3i, you'll appreciate this...spring time has officially arrived for me in north east pennsylvania. proof of this, a tee time today at 1:00.
01[09:03] {@Threei} lol
01[09:03] {@Threei} nathan would say you stress yourself too much
[09:05] {troub} good morning
01[09:05] {@Threei} troub :)
[09:05] {dino} :)
[09:06] {dino} when golf becomes stressful, i will give it up.
01[09:06] {@Threei} oh come on, don't be a quitter... endure
[09:08] {dino} if would have been better word
01[09:08] {@Threei} :)
01[09:14] {@Threei} finally: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-27228416
[09:16] {Phil} interesting
01[09:17] {@Threei} article mentions that it might have trading implications, and I am sure it is
01[09:17] {@Threei} observed people losing on long side on some stoxk, and immediately trying to short it
01[09:17] {@Threei} same idea
[09:18] {Phil} thats what I was thinking, next time i'm in a losing prosition im going to cut the lead on my mouse and hit it with a rock
01[09:19] {@Threei} sounds about right
[09:22] {goinshort} morning all from rainy florida
01[09:22] {@Threei} gs :)
[09:23] {RonS} gm
01[09:23] {@Threei} ron )
[09:26] {cosmo} Tampa?
[09:28] {goinshort} panama city beach
[09:29] {ese} mornin
01[09:29] {@Threei} today risk of a sudden market move is larger... Ukraine troops resumed operation in Slavyansk, center of separatists activity... if they start looking like suuceeding, that's pretext Russia needs to invade
01[09:29] {@Threei} ese :)
01[09:30] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .15 break
01[09:30] {@Threei} If holds .05
01[09:31] {@Threei} 1:1
01[09:32] {@Threei} Short Setup: C .75 break
01[09:32] {@Threei} If holds .85
01[09:32] {@Threei} yuck
01[09:32] {@Threei} no go
[09:36] {nathan} morning gents
01[09:36] {@Threei} morning nathan
[09:36] {dino} expe hl l .15
[09:38] {dino} out expe .24, +1.09
[09:39] {dino} no takers?
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .70 break hl break
[09:39] {nemo} spy likely to try for the premarket high
[09:39] {Alexs} gm
01[09:39] {@Threei} If holds .60
01[09:39] {@Threei} ales :)
[09:40] {Alexs} what setup?
01[09:40] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:42] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .40 break hl
[09:42] {dino} open all over the tape
01[09:42] {@Threei} If holds .30
01[09:42] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:43] {@Threei} last one, .25 break
01[09:43] {@Threei} If holds .15
01[09:43] {@Threei} invalidated too
01[09:45] {@Threei} Long Setup: JPM .10 break
01[09:45] {@Threei} If holds 56
01[09:47] {@Threei} Obama, Merkel to display unity against Russia
01[09:47] {@Threei} Putin: I can't be third??
01[09:48] {@Threei} stop to .04
[09:48] {dino} 1/3 germanys oil/gas comes from russia
01[09:48] {@Threei} meh
[09:49] {dino} expe lod
01[09:49] {@Threei} when have time, read this: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/merkel-says-world-war-horrors-underline-need-for-diplomacy-with-russia/499298.html
[09:49] {nathan} MSFT falling
01[09:50] {@Threei} watching FB for pullback
01[09:50] {@Threei} finally showed some green
01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .90 break hlf
01[09:50] {@Threei} If holds .80
[09:51] {dino} something seems off in markets
01[09:51] {@Threei} hesitance...
[09:52] {dino} feels like big drop coming....maybe its just me
01[09:52] {@Threei} no
01[09:52] {@Threei} no go
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .05 break
01[09:53] {@Threei} If holds .95
[09:55] {ese} L wprt .49
[09:58] {thomcbell} akam looks vulnerable to profit taking after that down move
[09:59] {dino} out tza flat
[09:59] {ese} out wprt .52 +.03 was chasing it didn't do what i wanted
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) MAR FACTORY ORDERS: 1.1% V 1.5%E
01[09:59] {@Threei} stop to .99
01[10:01] {@Threei} out
01[10:01] {@Threei} not our morning
[10:01] {nathan} out
01[10:02] {@Threei} Long Setup: DAL .30 break
01[10:02] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[10:04] {@Threei} valid still
01[10:08] {@Threei} stop to .24
01[10:09] {@Threei} what the deuce with turning around couple cents before target
01[10:09] {@Threei} that would be a third trade doing that
01[10:10] {@Threei} half out
01[10:10] {@Threei} stop .29
01[10:10] {@Threei} if that's what market does today, let's adapt
[10:11] {ese} L mack .33
01[10:11] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:12] {nathan} 1:1 tx Vad
01[10:12] {@Threei} yw
[10:16] {thomcbell} akam
[10:16] {thomcbell} was too jumpy
[10:16] {troub} have to run, good to finish with a winner.have a good weekend all.
[10:16] {ese} atta boy troub
01[10:16] {@Threei} take care troub, have a good one
01[10:17] {@Threei} (UR) Ukraine acting Pres: Operations in Sloviansk are continuing, two Ukraine soldiers have died
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .80 break
01[10:20] {@Threei} If holds .73
[10:21] {Alexs} two sided?
01[10:21] {@Threei} nah
01[10:21] {@Threei} long or no play
01[10:29] {@Threei} remember I said yesterday Putin appreciates IMF loans to Ukraine?
01[10:29] {@Threei} Russia expects Ukraine to spend part of IMF loan toward clearing gas debt
01[10:29] {@Threei} there
[10:30] {dino} like getting paid to invade
[10:31] {Alexs} I don't think it's in the plans of Ukrainians
01[10:32] {@Threei} no, they hope to steal it without paying anything to anyone
[10:32] {Alexs} lol
[10:32] {Alexs} that's what I meant
[10:35] {nathan} will bounce TZA?
[10:36] {nathan} there's the answer
01[10:37] {@Threei} if setup shapes up
[10:37] {nathan} broke the lod
01[10:37] {@Threei} don't guess
01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .65 break
01[10:40] {@Threei} If holds .75
01[10:41] {@Threei} 1:1
[10:46] {Alexs} Actually Europa expects to get most of the money IMF gives to Ukraine http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/01/us-ukraine-crisis-debts-imf-idUSBREA400TS20140501
01[10:46] {@Threei} Ukraine is very upset by all the competition
01[10:48] {@Threei} drop came out of nowehere
[10:48] {nathan} dino, there it goes your perception
01[10:48] {@Threei} no setup
01[10:48] {@Threei} [09:29] {@Threei} today risk of a sudden market move is larger... Ukraine troops resumed operation in Slavyansk, center of separatists activity... if they start looking like suuceeding, that's pretext Russia needs to invade
[10:48] {nathan} and vad ;-)
[10:49] {nathan} didnt read it before
01[10:49] {@Threei} I just wish there was any sign of reversal
[10:49] {nathan} hope si
[10:49] {nathan} so
[10:50] {ese} heck of a mrkt drop
[10:50] {dino} see that nathan
[10:50] {dino} but got sidetracked, no plays
[10:57] {nathan} watching AIG
01[10:59] {@Threei} Long Setup: AIG .50 break
01[10:59] {@Threei} If holds .40
01[11:00] {@Threei} Invalidated
[11:00] {nathan} or short if breaks .40?
01[11:00] {@Threei} nah'
[11:01] {dino} lol, got lucky. took some ibtx in last hour yesterday at 46.46, just sold 47.61, +1.15
[11:01] {nathan} still valid?
[11:01] {dino} things a bitch to get out of, major hooker
01[11:01] {@Threei} nah'no
01[11:01] {@Threei} no
[11:02] {Alexs} if ukrainian troops succeed that's pretext for Russian invasion if they fail that's pretext for peaceful annexation
[11:02] {dino} ngs spike
01[11:02] {@Threei} exactly Alex
[11:02] {dino} too thin
01[11:02] {@Threei} that's the position Ukraine is in
01[11:02] {@Threei} damned if you do, damned if you don't
01[11:03] {@Threei} either way country is getting ripped apart
01[11:03] {@Threei} and moral of the story for the rest of the world is, never give up your nukes
[11:04] {dino} exactly
[11:04] {dino} peace thru strength
01[11:04] {@Threei} the only lasting peace...
[11:08] {Alexs} In Europe only France and Great Britain have nuclear weapons and everybody else don't feel bad
[11:08] {thomcbell} Friday, May 02, 2014 11:01:57 AM Alibaba.com Ltd Likely to file for IPO on Monday or Tuesday - Recode's Swisher on CNBC - Source TradeTheNews.com
01[11:08] {@Threei} YHOO shot up
02[11:12] * Disconnected
Session Close: Fri May 02 11:12:42 2014
Session Start: Fri May 02 11:12:42 2014
Session Ident: #discussions
02[11:21] * Attempting to rejoin channel #discussions
03[11:21] * Rejoined channel #discussions
01[11:22] {Threei} something with connection here
[11:22] {dptl} there you are
01[11:22] {Threei} lost room and quotes
01[11:22] {Threei} just now coming back
01[11:24] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .35 break
01[11:24] {Threei} If holds .25
01[11:24] {Threei} aggressive entry for .40
[11:24] {thomcbell} mpel looking for short setup
[11:24] {thomcbell} inverted cup and handle
[11:24] {thomcbell} or cup
[11:25] {dino} ese, lol
01[11:25] {Threei} this VXX should be a larger trade, not a scalp
[11:25] {dino} calling it a good week, thx all, good luck into close
01[11:25] {Threei} take care dino, see you Monday
[11:26] {dino} ty
[11:27] {thomcbell} mpel disregard
01[11:29] {Threei} 1:1
01[11:30] {Threei} grrr... just a scalp
[11:31] {Alexs} not bad currently
01[11:31] {Threei} really looked like major breakdown in SPY was coming
01[11:36] {Threei} Interim President Oleksandr Turchynov said the Ukrainian forces' attack on the checkpoints in Sloviansk on May 2 left "many insurgents dead, wounded and arrested."
01[11:38] {Threei} http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/05/02/p18muo40fj107i1urmr8an77one4/original.jpg
01[11:38] {Threei} I am telling you guys... seeing this kind of images from your motherland is beyond surreal
01[11:46] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD .30 break
01[11:46] {Threei} If holds .40
[11:47] {ese} am outta here stoped balnce mack .34 +/-.00 have a great weekend all
01[11:48] {Threei} take care ese
[11:48] {nathan} have a great wekeend too. see you on monday
01[11:48] {Threei} you too nathan
[11:48] {nemo} watch 62.10 area for yelp short
[11:50] {nemo} vrsn might be a long above .45 stop under .38 time of day rough
[11:54] {Alexs} are you in GLD Vad?
01[11:54] {Threei} yes
[11:54] {nemo} well, now vrsn below .35 looks short because holding under .40
01[12:09] {Threei} half out GLD
01[12:09] {Threei} stop to .36
01[12:10] {Threei} 1:1
01[12:10] {Threei} finally
01[12:11] {Threei} 1/4 more out
[12:12] {nemo} vrsn at .20 likely bounce around .16
01[12:19] {Threei} stop .26
01[12:32] {Threei} Long Setup: VXX .15 break
01[12:32] {Threei} If holds .05
01[12:47] {Threei} change to .10 break
01[12:56] {Threei} not every day you see VXX unable to break 5 cents range
[12:56] {nemo} iwm forming pennant
[12:56] {nemo} right on the weekly pivot
01[13:02] {Threei} ok
01[13:02] {Threei} time
01[13:02] {Threei} let's go VXX
01[13:03] {Threei} BBc tightened
01[13:03] {Threei} BBs too
[13:03] {Alexs} CNN too?
01[13:04] {Threei} lol
01[13:04] {Threei} before I met you lot, I had no idea bad humor is that contagious
[13:04] {Alexs} lol
01[13:06] {Threei} that was last headfake, break and run now
01[13:10] {Threei} half out
01[13:14] {Threei} 1:1
01[13:15] {Threei} 10 cents feel like a real feat, lol
[13:16] {nemo} August trading
[13:17] {Alexs} last August was very good
01[13:17] {Threei} I don't think it's seasonal
01[13:17] {Threei} I think it's big indecisiveness
[13:17] {nemo} it's all HFT's fault
01[13:17] {Threei} but of course.... what isn't
[13:17] {nemo} Global warming too
[13:18] {Alexs} incom inequlity
[13:18] {Alexs} income
01[13:20] {Threei} stubbed my toe yesterday in the dark... first thought was "damn HFT"
01[13:21] {Threei} 1/4 more out
01[13:23] {Threei} stop .14
01[13:26] {Threei} Alex, you read that article?
[13:27] {Alexs} which one?
01[13:28] {Threei} http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/merkel-says-world-war-horrors-underline-need-for-diplomacy-with-russia/499298.html
01[13:28] {Threei} stop to .18 meanwhile
01[13:29] {Threei} 1:2
[13:30] {Alexs} what else they can say
01[13:30] {Threei} well, point is, NATO membeship is not likely to protect Baltic countries very much
[13:30] {Alexs} no idon't see it like that
[13:32] {Alexs} if NATO won't protect their allies it will kill itself
01[13:32] {Threei} yup
[13:32] {nemo} NATO is the US the rest are pussies
01[13:32] {Threei} Europe has no guts to fight
01[13:33] {Threei} and US is not willing to solve Europe problems without Europe participation anymore
01[13:33] {Threei} they will sanction Russia, one person at a time
01[13:34] {Threei} 7 individuals sanctioned for Crimea... 20 more for Ukraine... 13 for Latvia...
01[13:34] {Threei} etc
[13:34] {Alexs} Ukraine is not a NATO member, they had 20 years to get there just was to busy stealing others money that's the problem
01[13:34] {Threei} by the time Russian empire is restored, maybe 300 will be sanctioned
[13:46] {RonS} lnkd set to run the 150.00 stops
01[13:47] {Threei} closed VXX
[13:47] {thomcbell} UBNT 41 long break if holding 40.90
[13:48] {thomcbell} to nullify my so soon
[13:48] {thomcbell} invalidated
[13:48] {thomcbell} still watching it
01[13:58] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .10 break
01[13:58] {Threei} If holds 17
[14:02] {nemo} good bounce spot for rig
[14:05] {cosmo} Couldn't individuals on both sides be sanctioned?
[14:05] {cosmo} if that's the right word...
01[14:06] {Threei} both sides?
[14:06] {RonS} add it as an Olympic event?
[14:06] {cosmo} east/west
01[14:06] {Threei} meaning, Russia will ban HIllary's daughter from taking courses in Kaluga univercity?
[14:06] {cosmo} exactly :)
01[14:06] {Threei} hehe
[14:07] {cosmo} that's how it starts
[14:10] {nemo} this likely bottom in indexes
01[14:18] {Threei} Security Council holds emergency Ukraine meeting
01[14:20] {Threei} {Security Council} we might not have another chance as Ukraine is about to disintegrate, so why not, right?
01[14:23] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .25 break
01[14:23] {Threei} If holds .15
01[14:24] {Threei} change to .20 break
01[14:26] {Threei} Invalidated
01[14:31] {Threei} Long Setup: IWM .10 break
01[14:31] {Threei} If holds 112
[14:36] {thomcbell} nice call on bottom nemo
01[14:36] {Threei} 1:1
[14:40] {nemo} spy needs to hold above .15 or we might not have seen the bottom, but imo they keep it above 188 and gap up Monday to new all time highs
[14:40] {nemo} anybody want the winning megamillions numbers for tonight?
01[14:40] {Threei} nah, just send me 10%
[14:41] {Alexs} lol
[14:41] {nemo} frickin' copper wire inventors
[14:42] {goinshort} thanks guys -cya
01[14:43] {Threei} take care gs
[14:43] {nemo} think GS's last name is Blankfein?
[14:44] {Phil} Thanks Vad, have a great weekend guys
[14:47] {RonS} hey nemo, what decade did those "whadya call a man w/ no arms or legs in the/a..." jokes come around?
[14:47] {nemo} don't know, but phil set you off, huh?
[14:48] {RonS} ya: whadya call a man with no arms or legs in a hole?...
[14:48] {nemo} Phil or doug
[14:49] {RonS} ...in a pool?
[14:49] {nemo} bob
[14:49] {RonS} cna never remember the answer to "hanging on a wall"?
[14:49] {nemo} Art
[14:49] {RonS} ah
[14:50] {RonS} and I always thought that was the funniest...
[14:50] {nemo} Why You Should Never, Ever, Question A Drunk...
[14:50] {nemo} Sally was shopping at the local supermarket where she selected:
[14:50] {nemo} A half-gallon of 2% milk
[14:50] {nemo} A carton of eggs
[14:50] {nemo} A quart of orange juice
[14:50] {nemo} A head of lettuce
[14:50] {nemo} A 2 lb. can of coffee
[14:50] {nemo} A 1 lb. package of bacon
[14:50] {nemo} While she was unloading my items on the conveyor belt to check out, a drunk standing behind her watched as she placed the items in front of the cashier.
[14:50] {nemo} While the cashier was ringing up the purchases, the drunk calmly stated, 'You must be single.'
[14:50] {nemo} She was a bit startled by this proclamation, but was intrigued by the derelict's intuition, since she indeed had never found Mr. Right.
[14:50] {nemo} She looked at the six items on the belt and saw nothing particularly unusual about the selections that could have tipped off the drunk to her marital status.
[14:51] {nemo} Curiosity getting the better of her she said, 'Yes you are correct. But how on earth did you know that?'
[14:51] {nemo} The drunk replied, 'Cause you're ugly.
[14:51] {dptl} great...now i have to scroll
01[14:52] {Threei} lol
[14:52] {RonS} whatever year that was, it was a good one...my recollection is that the "coyote love" jokes hit then too...
[14:52] {nemo} oh gawd
[14:54] {nemo} well we got cup and handles if the indexes gonna make vwap runs
01[14:55] {Threei} Long Setup: AIG .30 break
01[14:55] {Threei} If holds .20
[14:57] {nemo} finnies weak
[15:06] {dptl} have a good weekend all...see ya monday
01[15:06] {Threei} half out
01[15:06] {Threei} take care dp
01[15:08] {Threei} 1:1
01[15:08] {Threei} digging out from morning hole
01[15:08] {Threei} trade by trade...
[15:08] {nemo} slowly I turned
[15:08] {nemo} inch by inch
[15:08] {nemo} step by step
01[15:09] {Threei} 1:1 MORE out
01[15:09] {Threei} hmmm
01[15:09] {Threei} let me try again
01[15:09] {Threei} 1/4 more out
01[15:09] {Threei} there
[15:09] {nemo} http://goo.gl/4kojBW
01[15:10] {Threei} lol
[15:12] {RonS} thanks for aig 3i, good one...have a nice weekend all
01[15:13] {Threei} have a good one ron
01[15:30] {Threei} Long Setup: TZA .20 break
01[15:30] {Threei} If holds .20
[15:40] {Alexs} stop .10?
01[15:40] {Threei} for now
01[15:40] {Threei} will tighten soon'
01[15:42] {Threei} .14 now
01[15:45] {Threei} ok
01[15:45] {Threei} no means now
01[15:45] {Threei} thank you all, have a good weekend
01[15:45] {Threei} see you Monday
[15:48] {thomcbell} gn all
Thursday, May 1, 2014
May 01 2014
Flat day, which we started well with a few nice wins, but let them evaporate on a few too many stops in the afternoon.
Session Time: Thu May 01 00:00:00 2014
[08:45] {cosmo} Silver getting cheap, fwiw
[08:46] {cosmo} ...below 19
01[08:46] {@Threei} will be cheaper still...
[08:46] {cosmo} o
[08:46] {cosmo} k
[08:48] {Phil} good monrning all
01[08:48] {@Threei} phil :)
[09:07] {nathan} good morning gents
[09:07] {thomcbell} look at coh daily and weekly chart
01[09:07] {@Threei} nathan :)
[09:07] {thomcbell} 40 massive level
01[09:08] {@Threei} double top or breakdonw followed by a horror movie, thom
01[09:08] {@Threei} diouble bottom, sorry
[09:09] {nathan} wow too much news today
[09:09] {nathan} is it safe?
[09:10] {dino} gm
01[09:10] {@Threei} dino :)
01[09:10] {@Threei} what do you mean nathan?
[09:10] {goinshort} morning all!
01[09:10] {@Threei} gs :)
[09:11] {nathan} with many companys publishing earnings before and after....
01[09:11] {@Threei} what do you care? play setups
01[09:12] {@Threei} it's not like you need to take position before earnings and wait to see how it turns out
[09:13] {dptl} good morning
01[09:13] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:15] {nathan} yep but,...you're right. I may have the "false senstation" that opening a position when the co is publishing or have published earnings was not a good idea
[09:16] {dino} whatever you do, don't take position before earnings, lots of earnings reports are getting killed (5-20 pts)
01[09:16] {@Threei} right
[09:16] {nathan} ok
01[09:16] {@Threei} plus, why do you have to play those with earnings?
01[09:16] {@Threei} trade any other
[09:17] {nathan} right
[09:21] {RonS} hello everyone
[09:21] {nathan} hi rons
01[09:21] {@Threei} ron :)
[09:26] {dino} nathan, "better worlds" theory of trading
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
01[09:26] {@Threei} alex :)
01[09:28] {@Threei} watching TZA and GLD for opening trades (long and short correspondingly)
01[09:29] {@Threei} unless something else jumps in
[09:30] {nathan} is that a book dino?
[09:30] {nathan} tlak about that later dino
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .10 break
01[09:30] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[09:32] {@Threei} valid
01[09:33] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:33] {thomcbell} watching cop for a double top
01[09:33] {@Threei} nice and easy
[09:33] {nathan} 1:1
[09:33] {nathan} ty vad
01[09:33] {@Threei} yw
[09:33] {dptl} out ty
01[09:33] {@Threei} Invalidated GLD
01[09:34] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei} don't you love them when they behave like this
[09:34] {nathan} :-)
[09:35] {thomcbell} coh lovely
01[09:35] {@Threei} out in full
01[09:35] {@Threei} nice one thom
[09:37] {nathan} wow SLM
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: YHOO 36 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[09:39] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: EBAY .60 break hl
01[09:40] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[09:41] {@Threei} TZA .50 exit was just right
[09:42] {Les} got DAS feed issues here
[09:44] {dino} slm hl l .20 stop lod
01[09:44] {@Threei} *(US) APR FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.4 V 55.4E
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .10 break hl
01[09:46] {@Threei} If holds 61
01[09:47] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:49] {dino} fb swing stop to .96
01[09:49] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:50] {@Threei} 1:3
01[09:50] {@Threei} out
[09:50] {dino} \gj
[09:51] {nathan} gj
01[09:51] {@Threei} ty
[09:51] {nemo} fb problbaly going to .60ish and then maybe the whole
[09:54] {thomcbell} cop
[09:54] {thomcbell} didnt work how i thought but man
[09:57] {thomcbell} coh 43.57 short break
[09:58] {thomcbell} 1:1
[09:58] {dptl} sbux .45 short?
01[09:59] {@Threei} no
[09:59] {dptl} k
[09:59] {Les} ebay .50 long?
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) MAR CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 0.2% V 0.5%E
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) APR ISM MANUFACTURING: 54.9 V 54.3E; PRICES PAID: 56.5 V 59.5E
[10:00] {Les} nope
01[10:00] {@Threei} EBAY, tough... not sure
[10:00] {thomcbell} coh 1:2
[10:00] {dino} smr l yrcw .44
[10:00] {thomcbell} hds 26 short break if holding 26.10
[10:01] {nathan} stoped at SLM
[10:02] {dptl} nbr .20 break short?
[10:02] {dino} slm stop -.11
01[10:03] {@Threei} no read NBR
[10:04] {dptl} ahh..i got in on .20 break
[10:04] {dino} jah crazy daily
[10:05] {Les} dip buyers are getting bolder. SPY 188 bounces again. wiating for another entry
[10:05] {dino} ocn smr l .04
[10:07] {dino} ocn stop .79 -.25
01[10:07] {@Threei} Long Setup: YHOO .25 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} If holds .20
[10:08] {dino} ocn f'ng rinse
[10:09] {dino} prlb drop
01[10:15] {@Threei} meh
[10:15] {dptl} stopped yhoo
[10:16] {dino} out fb swing .96 from monday, +4.21
01[10:16] {@Threei} too bad... was once step from 1:1 when market suddenly lost will to live
01[10:16] {@Threei} wtg dino
[10:16] {dptl} out nbr +.12
[10:16] {Alexs} nice trade dino
[10:16] {dino} ty
[10:17] {dino} prlb smr l ave .10
[10:17] {ese} mornin....anyone filthy rich yet......
[10:17] {dino} pulp
01[10:17] {@Threei} same market drop saved your NBR, dp :)
01[10:17] {@Threei} hey ese
01[10:17] {@Threei} dino is
[10:17] {nathan} gj dino!!!
[10:17] {dino} lucky on fb swing
[10:17] {ese} mornin vad
[10:17] {nathan} how many shares?
[10:17] {dino} 600
[10:18] {nathan} wow
[10:18] {dino} rgr spike
01[10:18] {@Threei} nathan hasn't seen ese share sizes yet :)
[10:18] {ese} vad...had you ever been in Crystal gardens when you first moved here....it used to be a tropical forest
[10:19] {nathan} :-)
01[10:19] {@Threei} they weren't when I did... it was before my time
[10:19] {ese} am meeting victoria former mayor Alan Lowe down there in about 45 minutes
[10:19] {ese} he's the organizer of a 100th anniversary celebration that my high school band is a part of
[10:21] {ese} anyway....just poping in to say hello to you all....have a great everyone.....hopefully be here tomorrow
01[10:21] {@Threei} we will be here ese
[10:21] {ese} indeed
01[10:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .55 break
01[10:26] {@Threei} If holds .50
[10:27] {dino} eqm spike
[10:29] {dino} out yrcw .84, +.40
01[10:31] {@Threei} wtg
01[10:32] {@Threei} meh
[10:32] {dptl} stopped tza
[10:32] {dino} ty
[10:34] {dino} damn fb stop was too tight
01[10:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL .40 break
01[10:37] {@Threei} If holds .50
[10:41] {dino} sm smr l .00
[10:41] {thomcbell} fnsr 25.68 long break if holding 25.60
[10:42] {dino} out prlb flat
01[10:44] {@Threei} let's trail to .46
[10:46] {thomcbell} fnsr 1:2
[10:48] {thomcbell} took the trade in fnsr
[10:49] {dino} gj
01[10:51] {@Threei} gosh, come on already DAL
01[10:51] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:51] {@Threei} stop .41
[10:55] {dino} sm to .42
[10:56] {dino} out sm .41, +.41
[11:00] {dino} ibtx drop
[11:09] {dptl} out dal ty
01[11:10] {@Threei} 1:2
01[11:10] {@Threei} yw
[11:11] {dino} gj
01[11:12] {@Threei} ty
[11:14] {dino} myl gap fill
[11:16] {goinshort} out dal - thanks
[11:17] {dino} myl smr l .75
[11:19] {dino} stmp soike
[11:22] {dino} myl stop -.35
[11:25] {thomcbell} hs 79.26 long break if holding 79.16
[11:29] {dptl} do you like M short Vad? .80 break?
[11:30] {thomcbell} hd 1:1
01[11:31] {@Threei} yup, nice chart
01[11:31] {@Threei} yw gs
[11:31] {thomcbell} hd 1:2
[11:31] {dino} myl last try hl l .69
[11:31] {dptl} if holds .90
[11:32] {dino} ibtx blood, thin
[11:32] {dptl} no inval.
[11:33] {thomcbell} stop on hd to 79.44 on balance
[11:33] {dino} azn spike
[11:35] {thomcbell} hd 1:3
[11:35] {dino} azn smr s .46
[11:37] {dino} out myl .94,
[11:37] {dino} +.25
[11:38] {dino} azn news?
[11:40] {dino} cov azn .76, +.70
01[11:47] {@Threei} AstraZeneca Plc Pfizer said to be considering raising offer for the company to higher than $106B, with an increased cash component
01[11:48] {@Threei} DAL baby
01[11:48] {@Threei} out in full
01[11:48] {@Threei} 1:3 is close enough
[11:48] {Phil} nice :)
01[11:48] {@Threei} took its sweet time
[11:53] {dino} thx vad, out already
01[11:54] {@Threei} :)
[11:57] {Les} yhoo
[12:00] {dptl} watching m again
[12:04] {dino} vrtx spike
[12:04] {dptl} Vad, do you like coh 44 break short?
01[12:05] {@Threei} I do
01[12:05] {@Threei} just respect lunch time
01[12:05] {@Threei} half lot maybe?
[12:06] {dptl} k
01[12:06] {@Threei} IMF says Ukraine needs modified bailout if it loses the east
[12:06] {thomcbell} if or when
01[12:06] {@Threei} heh... remember once the world was all riled up about Crimea?
01[12:06] {@Threei} no one even talks about it anymore
01[12:07] {@Threei} now they started admitting it's possible for Ukraine to be broken up
01[12:07] {@Threei} next, they will inform Russia that they don't recognize those parts as part of Russia
01[12:07] {@Threei} and next yet, everyone stops talking about it
01[12:08] {@Threei} and thom, as far as I can see, it's not IF... I even tnink I can answer "when" question
[12:08] {dptl} i'll keep .06 stop on coh
01[12:09] {@Threei} Kerry says US know exactly who is ordering the separatists in Ukraine
01[12:09] {@Threei} really... is it that cimplicated?
[12:10] {Phil} I don't know why they can't just have a UN monitored referendum
[12:11] {Les} I like what armstrong says on Kerry
01[12:11] {@Threei} because they wouldn't be able to make it 93% then, Phil
01[12:12] {@Threei} don't assume Putin is interested to find out what they really think
[12:12] {Les} http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/29/kerry-said-nato-territory-will-be-defended-to-every-inch/
01[12:12] {@Threei} he simply needs a pretext, and he creates it
[12:13] {Alexs} where did you raed it about IMF remarks Vad?
[12:13] {Alexs} raed = read
01[12:14] {@Threei} http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/01/us-ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSBREA400J520140501
[12:15] {Alexs} Oh, so they are planning to give them more money in that case )
01[12:16] {@Threei} and Putin says "hey, that's a great idea! I will happily take that!"
[12:16] {Alexs} rofl
[12:16] {Les} yeh american taxpayers are paying for it
01[12:17] {@Threei} I have to say, IMF is a rare collection of imbeciles
[12:17] {Alexs} But listen, it could be interesting for new ukraine gov as well
01[12:17] {@Threei} they do hope to manage to steal some before they lose whole country, sure
[12:18] {Alexs} lol
01[12:18] {@Threei} good article Les
[12:18] {nemo} elephants flying?
01[12:18] {@Threei} as I usually do, I find Armstrong figuring it out exactly right
01[12:19] {@Threei} and I have answer to this rhetorical question of his:
[12:19] {Les} I like him cause he don't need the money. just scared shitless for his kids like other intelligent people
01[12:19] {@Threei} Once Russia believes it is invincible, who is then next?
[12:20] {nemo} Afghanistan
[12:20] {dino} lol, let them have it
01[12:20] {@Threei} Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, probably north of Kazakhstan
[12:20] {nemo} Alaska
01[12:20] {@Threei} he won't stop until he is stopped
[12:20] {dino} ibtx may be getting ready to bounce, hooker
01[12:20] {@Threei} they just don't understand him and his thinking
01[12:21] {@Threei} troub, welcome aboard
[12:23] {RonS} troubLE in river city?
[12:24] {troub} Thank you. Couldn't wait till June 1. Too much oppertunity here.
[12:24] {nemo} and free entertainment
01[12:24] {@Threei} :)
[12:24] {troub} Ron actually on the Neches River in Texas.
[12:25] {nemo} near where?
[12:25] {troub} And I hope to be no trouble.
[12:25] {troub} Beaumont
[12:25] {nemo} ahh
[12:26] {troub} hot, humid and great Cajun food
[12:26] {dino} ibtx smr l .25 risky
[12:26] {RonS} big bidness around there...
[12:26] {dino} glad to see you stayed troub
[12:26] {troub} thanks.
[12:27] {RonS} so troub, when did conn's move to Houston?
[12:29] {troub} Short time ago. Still have some central office here for a while but lots of movement to Houston.
01[12:29] {@Threei} dp, you covered COH?
[12:31] {nemo} cvx
[12:32] {nemo} it held that 125 level and dropped it now it's gonna retest it
[12:36] {Alexs} Vad, I don't think Putin believes that Russia is invincible he's just taking exactly what he knows nobody will defend
[12:37] {dino} alexs, putin knows obummer has no balls to stop him
01[12:37] {@Threei} yup
[12:38] {Alexs} but he will never move to Baltic countries because they are in NATO
01[12:38] {@Threei} I dunno about that... he knows no one wants war
[12:38] {dino} never say never
01[12:38] {@Threei} he will test their resolve
[12:39] {dptl} ye i am out coh Vad, not where i wanted but its ok
[12:44] {RonS} lol, hey troub Tabasco has 25% off on gallons on their website...
[12:46] {troub} That will last a lot cooks around about a week.
[12:46] {RonS} only problem i see is getting it into any other container...and, if you spill it does it eat the floor?
[12:46] {troub} no, you build an immunity. But watch out for the floor.
[12:47] {RonS} lol
[12:48] {RonS} actually the green sauce is mild and just tasty...not enough stores sell it around here...may go for the gallon...
[12:49] {RonS} the costco red sauce size lasts me about 2 years
[12:51] {dino} insanechicken.com has some good sauces
[12:56] {RonS} insanebunny.com has a stalker named nemo...
[12:56] {nemo} well bunny is female
01[12:57] {@Threei} lol
[12:57] {nemo} so May Day Europe closed and I doubt anybody will show up for work tomorrow
[13:00] {Les} oh come one we ain't all dole bludging sleazy communists
[13:02] {nemo} Les, found a picture of some of your old girlfriends: http://goo.gl/AhNHrY
[13:05] {RonS} rotflol
[13:05] {Les} god bless 'em all
[13:05] {Les} still not acrime in siwtzerland
[13:05] {Les} shit swatey habnds keyboard slipping
[13:08] {RonS} As many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than 10 cities in eastern Ukraine: http://bloom.bg/1nM9jRw pic.twitter.com/nycQd1vNQE
01[13:09] {@Threei} footage on fox right now
01[13:09] {@Threei} storming of the building
01[13:12] {@Threei} full blown military exercise in Kiev yesterday - training of protection of the administrative buildings
01[13:13] {@Threei} they are preparing for Kiev to be a last stand
[13:13] {Les} 1k gunmen, that's a big gang
[13:13] {Les} ...
01[13:14] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .10 break hl
01[13:14] {@Threei} If holds 40
01[13:15] {@Threei} alternatively, take half lot here
01[13:15] {@Threei} .06
01[13:15] {@Threei} add half on .10 break
01[13:15] {@Threei} and consider .16 - .17 to be 1:1
[13:17] {dino} tough to get out of hooker, out ibtx .00, +.75
[13:18] {RonS} never could get in...was not gonna tie 2X4 to rear end and jump...
[13:19] {dino} lol, but it worked out well
01[13:24] {@Threei} Associated Press: NATO official says Russia now an adversary
[13:24] {Alexs} took a long time
01[13:24] {@Threei} no kidding, Putin never thought any different
01[13:25] {@Threei} but the idea just penetrated their thick skulls
01[13:25] {@Threei} Vladimir Putin appears determined to disrupt the May 25th presidential elections in Ukraine.
01[13:25] {@Threei} wrong
01[13:25] {@Threei} he doesn't mind at all, it's just that it will be elctions of president of non-existing state
01[13:26] {@Threei} if they elect president of Burkina-Faso in Kiev on May 25, he will be just as pleased
[13:27] {Alexs} I think Putin just consider himself as a main candidate
01[13:28] {@Threei} well, his elections end with 142%
01[13:28] {@Threei} 93% in Crimea was a total epic failure
[13:29] {troub} Remember Hitler invading Czechoslovakia to "protect" the ethnic German people? 1938 or 39
[13:29] {dptl} dal .20 short?
01[13:30] {@Threei} yup, sudetland
01[13:30] {@Threei} hl, dp, yes
[13:31] {dptl} ok
01[13:31] {@Threei} May 1 parade on Red Square, alex... first time since USSR breakup
01[13:31] {@Threei} 1:1 VXX if you took my two-stage entry version
[13:33] {dino} troub, same line being used by putin
[13:36] {dino} taking break
[13:38] {dptl} dal inval. for now
[13:41] {Alexs} yeah Vad, they are crazy, can't believe it
[13:44] {dptl} watching dal again
[13:44] {Alexs} took just 20 years, new generation of Russians still don't know what does it mean to live in the USSR
01[13:46] {@Threei} they'll find out...
[13:47] {dptl} in dal
[13:47] {dptl} hl
01[13:50] {@Threei} VXX again
01[13:51] {@Threei} 1:1 DAL
[13:51] {dptl} yes
[13:52] {thomcbell} look at aal vad
[13:52] {thomcbell} that thing is still up big
01[13:53] {@Threei} a bit more volatile than DAL
01[13:54] {@Threei} other than that, looks tradeable
01[13:56] {@Threei} 1:1 VXX for standard entry
[13:57] {Les} nice on dp thanbks man
[13:57] {dptl} yw all out
01[13:58] {@Threei} 1:2 VXX (combo entry)
[13:58] {Phil} all out vxx, thanks Vad
[13:58] {dptl} so jumpy that dal today......must be turbulence
01[13:59] {@Threei} phil :)
01[14:03] {@Threei} Ron
01[14:03] {@Threei} dp takes lessons from you
[14:03] {dptl} ?
01[14:04] {@Threei} 13:58] {dptl} so jumpy that dal today......must be turbulence
01[14:04] {@Threei} he is yellow to be sure, but we all started somewhere
[14:04] {dptl} oh...lol
[14:04] {RonS} green?
01[14:05] {@Threei} well yes, but during serious turbulence takes yellow tint
[14:15] {dptl} low .40 break short ?
01[14:16] {@Threei} not sure
[14:16] {dptl} ah...i got in
[14:22] {thomcbell} looking for some sort of relief rally in fnsr here
[14:26] {thomcbell} i nibbled on it long
[14:31] {RonS} for some reason that word grates me...just sayin
[14:32] {thomcbell} fnsr 25.39 long breaka if holding 25.30
[14:32] {RonS} if someone used that face to face wouldn't you just want to smack them? :)
01[14:33] {@Threei} hmmm
01[14:33] {@Threei} you have strangely high tolerance threshold, Ron... I want to smack many peiople for much less than that
[14:34] {RonS} lol
[14:34] {Les} ebay interesting
[14:35] {dino} .
[14:38] {nemo} wtf...my download speeds have doubled
01[14:39] {@Threei} oops... I forgot the "throttle nemo" button....
[14:39] {nemo} weird...only paying for half that
01[14:40] {@Threei} sorry guys, now he can insult everyine twice as fast
[14:41] {thomcbell} this hds is one to watch - trades incredibly well in the face of a big secondary print
[14:42] {dptl} i am out low flat
01[14:43] {@Threei} good idea... low fat products are usually harmful for your health
[14:43] {dptl} lol
[14:43] {dptl} and its just drop
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .55 break
01[14:44] {@Threei} If holds .45
01[14:44] {@Threei} wityh trail to .49 after .60 break
[14:47] {dptl} in tza
01[14:50] {@Threei} nah
[14:50] {dptl} out
01[14:50] {@Threei} (US) Dept of Health and Human Services (HHS) totals Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) enrollments through the open enrollment period through April 19; Approximately 13M signed up for public and private insurance- 8M selected private plans through the marketplaces, 4.8M selected the public medicaid insurance program - 28% of enrollees aged 18-34 - 85% of enrollees requested financial assistance
01[14:51] {@Threei} lol... and who will finance these 85%?
[14:51] {thomcbell} out fnsr
[14:55] {dptl} gm .85 short?
01[14:56] {@Threei} too narrow...
01[14:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: C .62 break
01[14:57] {@Threei} If holds .70
[15:02] {dptl} in c
[15:17] {dptl} now its hard to beleive its going to work
[15:17] {dptl} db
01[15:18] {@Threei} nah
[15:18] {Phil} shame, such a pretty C&H
[15:19] {dptl} ahh....boy oh boy....just feeding broker today
[15:29] {dino} abtl spike
[15:35] {Les} guys outta here again. Not trading until some clear direction comes along. Working nights, sleeping days, wanna be doing something else besides fronting a screen in between. Maybe downtrend, more likely ATH breakouts but don't wanna sit on chop here thru end of summer
[15:35] {goinshort} thankas
[15:35] {Les} a+
[15:35] {goinshort} thanks all -cya
01[15:35] {@Threei} take care Les, gs
[15:35] {dino} cya les and gs
[15:38] {Alexs} Clear dirction was in the USSR only
01[15:40] {@Threei} lol
01[15:40] {@Threei} and for 5 years only
[15:41] {nathan} good night sirs, I enjoyed todays session
01[15:41] {@Threei} take care nathan
[15:42] {nathan} btw dino what's the name of the book u mention?
[15:42] {nathan} at the very begining of the morning?
[15:43] {Alexs} bible?
[15:43] {nathan} lol
[15:43] {dptl} short mdt
[15:43] {nathan} the bible of the trading?
[15:43] {Alexs} :)
01[15:44] {@Threei} not a book, nathan
01[15:44] {@Threei} he just quoted a phrase from one of Stephen King novelsm
[15:44] {Alexs} should read it instead of trading
01[15:44] {@Threei} "there are better worlds than this,"
01[15:44] {@Threei} meaning, there is always better stock tp pick if this one doesn't behave
[15:44] {nathan} ok thanks for clarifyin
[15:45] {nathan} have a good night
[15:45] {dino} nathan, not a book, just one of my edges, "better worlds". i go where others do not
[15:46] {nathan} thanks dino.
[15:54] {dptl} no..no time..unless it drops now mdt
[15:55] {troub} good night all
[15:55] {Alexs} gn troub
[15:55] {Phil} Thanks Vad, cya guys
[15:55] {dino} gn all, thx for ideas
01[15:55] {@Threei} thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:55] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
Session Time: Thu May 01 00:00:00 2014
[08:45] {cosmo} Silver getting cheap, fwiw
[08:46] {cosmo} ...below 19
01[08:46] {@Threei} will be cheaper still...
[08:46] {cosmo} o
[08:46] {cosmo} k
[08:48] {Phil} good monrning all
01[08:48] {@Threei} phil :)
[09:07] {nathan} good morning gents
[09:07] {thomcbell} look at coh daily and weekly chart
01[09:07] {@Threei} nathan :)
[09:07] {thomcbell} 40 massive level
01[09:08] {@Threei} double top or breakdonw followed by a horror movie, thom
01[09:08] {@Threei} diouble bottom, sorry
[09:09] {nathan} wow too much news today
[09:09] {nathan} is it safe?
[09:10] {dino} gm
01[09:10] {@Threei} dino :)
01[09:10] {@Threei} what do you mean nathan?
[09:10] {goinshort} morning all!
01[09:10] {@Threei} gs :)
[09:11] {nathan} with many companys publishing earnings before and after....
01[09:11] {@Threei} what do you care? play setups
01[09:12] {@Threei} it's not like you need to take position before earnings and wait to see how it turns out
[09:13] {dptl} good morning
01[09:13] {@Threei} dp :)
[09:15] {nathan} yep but,...you're right. I may have the "false senstation" that opening a position when the co is publishing or have published earnings was not a good idea
[09:16] {dino} whatever you do, don't take position before earnings, lots of earnings reports are getting killed (5-20 pts)
01[09:16] {@Threei} right
[09:16] {nathan} ok
01[09:16] {@Threei} plus, why do you have to play those with earnings?
01[09:16] {@Threei} trade any other
[09:17] {nathan} right
[09:21] {RonS} hello everyone
[09:21] {nathan} hi rons
01[09:21] {@Threei} ron :)
[09:26] {dino} nathan, "better worlds" theory of trading
[09:26] {Alexs} gm
01[09:26] {@Threei} alex :)
01[09:28] {@Threei} watching TZA and GLD for opening trades (long and short correspondingly)
01[09:29] {@Threei} unless something else jumps in
[09:30] {nathan} is that a book dino?
[09:30] {nathan} tlak about that later dino
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD .10 break
01[09:30] {@Threei} If holds .20
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .30 break
01[09:31] {@Threei} If holds .25
01[09:32] {@Threei} valid
01[09:33] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:33] {thomcbell} watching cop for a double top
01[09:33] {@Threei} nice and easy
[09:33] {nathan} 1:1
[09:33] {nathan} ty vad
01[09:33] {@Threei} yw
[09:33] {dptl} out ty
01[09:33] {@Threei} Invalidated GLD
01[09:34] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:34] {@Threei} don't you love them when they behave like this
[09:34] {nathan} :-)
[09:35] {thomcbell} coh lovely
01[09:35] {@Threei} out in full
01[09:35] {@Threei} nice one thom
[09:37] {nathan} wow SLM
01[09:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: YHOO 36 break
01[09:38] {@Threei} If holds .10
01[09:39] {@Threei} Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: EBAY .60 break hl
01[09:40] {@Threei} If holds .70
01[09:41] {@Threei} TZA .50 exit was just right
[09:42] {Les} got DAS feed issues here
[09:44] {dino} slm hl l .20 stop lod
01[09:44] {@Threei} *(US) APR FINAL MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.4 V 55.4E
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup: FB .10 break hl
01[09:46] {@Threei} If holds 61
01[09:47] {@Threei} 1:1
[09:49] {dino} fb swing stop to .96
01[09:49] {@Threei} 1:2
01[09:50] {@Threei} 1:3
01[09:50] {@Threei} out
[09:50] {dino} \gj
[09:51] {nathan} gj
01[09:51] {@Threei} ty
[09:51] {nemo} fb problbaly going to .60ish and then maybe the whole
[09:54] {thomcbell} cop
[09:54] {thomcbell} didnt work how i thought but man
[09:57] {thomcbell} coh 43.57 short break
[09:58] {thomcbell} 1:1
[09:58] {dptl} sbux .45 short?
01[09:59] {@Threei} no
[09:59] {dptl} k
[09:59] {Les} ebay .50 long?
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) MAR CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: 0.2% V 0.5%E
01[09:59] {@Threei} *(US) APR ISM MANUFACTURING: 54.9 V 54.3E; PRICES PAID: 56.5 V 59.5E
[10:00] {Les} nope
01[10:00] {@Threei} EBAY, tough... not sure
[10:00] {thomcbell} coh 1:2
[10:00] {dino} smr l yrcw .44
[10:00] {thomcbell} hds 26 short break if holding 26.10
[10:01] {nathan} stoped at SLM
[10:02] {dptl} nbr .20 break short?
[10:02] {dino} slm stop -.11
01[10:03] {@Threei} no read NBR
[10:04] {dptl} ahh..i got in on .20 break
[10:04] {dino} jah crazy daily
[10:05] {Les} dip buyers are getting bolder. SPY 188 bounces again. wiating for another entry
[10:05] {dino} ocn smr l .04
[10:07] {dino} ocn stop .79 -.25
01[10:07] {@Threei} Long Setup: YHOO .25 break
01[10:07] {@Threei} If holds .20
[10:08] {dino} ocn f'ng rinse
[10:09] {dino} prlb drop
01[10:15] {@Threei} meh
[10:15] {dptl} stopped yhoo
[10:16] {dino} out fb swing .96 from monday, +4.21
01[10:16] {@Threei} too bad... was once step from 1:1 when market suddenly lost will to live
01[10:16] {@Threei} wtg dino
[10:16] {dptl} out nbr +.12
[10:16] {Alexs} nice trade dino
[10:16] {dino} ty
[10:17] {dino} prlb smr l ave .10
[10:17] {ese} mornin....anyone filthy rich yet......
[10:17] {dino} pulp
01[10:17] {@Threei} same market drop saved your NBR, dp :)
01[10:17] {@Threei} hey ese
01[10:17] {@Threei} dino is
[10:17] {nathan} gj dino!!!
[10:17] {dino} lucky on fb swing
[10:17] {ese} mornin vad
[10:17] {nathan} how many shares?
[10:17] {dino} 600
[10:18] {nathan} wow
[10:18] {dino} rgr spike
01[10:18] {@Threei} nathan hasn't seen ese share sizes yet :)
[10:18] {ese} vad...had you ever been in Crystal gardens when you first moved here....it used to be a tropical forest
[10:19] {nathan} :-)
01[10:19] {@Threei} they weren't when I did... it was before my time
[10:19] {ese} am meeting victoria former mayor Alan Lowe down there in about 45 minutes
[10:19] {ese} he's the organizer of a 100th anniversary celebration that my high school band is a part of
[10:21] {ese} anyway....just poping in to say hello to you all....have a great everyone.....hopefully be here tomorrow
01[10:21] {@Threei} we will be here ese
[10:21] {ese} indeed
01[10:26] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .55 break
01[10:26] {@Threei} If holds .50
[10:27] {dino} eqm spike
[10:29] {dino} out yrcw .84, +.40
01[10:31] {@Threei} wtg
01[10:32] {@Threei} meh
[10:32] {dptl} stopped tza
[10:32] {dino} ty
[10:34] {dino} damn fb stop was too tight
01[10:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: DAL .40 break
01[10:37] {@Threei} If holds .50
[10:41] {dino} sm smr l .00
[10:41] {thomcbell} fnsr 25.68 long break if holding 25.60
[10:42] {dino} out prlb flat
01[10:44] {@Threei} let's trail to .46
[10:46] {thomcbell} fnsr 1:2
[10:48] {thomcbell} took the trade in fnsr
[10:49] {dino} gj
01[10:51] {@Threei} gosh, come on already DAL
01[10:51] {@Threei} 1:1
01[10:51] {@Threei} stop .41
[10:55] {dino} sm to .42
[10:56] {dino} out sm .41, +.41
[11:00] {dino} ibtx drop
[11:09] {dptl} out dal ty
01[11:10] {@Threei} 1:2
01[11:10] {@Threei} yw
[11:11] {dino} gj
01[11:12] {@Threei} ty
[11:14] {dino} myl gap fill
[11:16] {goinshort} out dal - thanks
[11:17] {dino} myl smr l .75
[11:19] {dino} stmp soike
[11:22] {dino} myl stop -.35
[11:25] {thomcbell} hs 79.26 long break if holding 79.16
[11:29] {dptl} do you like M short Vad? .80 break?
[11:30] {thomcbell} hd 1:1
01[11:31] {@Threei} yup, nice chart
01[11:31] {@Threei} yw gs
[11:31] {thomcbell} hd 1:2
[11:31] {dino} myl last try hl l .69
[11:31] {dptl} if holds .90
[11:32] {dino} ibtx blood, thin
[11:32] {dptl} no inval.
[11:33] {thomcbell} stop on hd to 79.44 on balance
[11:33] {dino} azn spike
[11:35] {thomcbell} hd 1:3
[11:35] {dino} azn smr s .46
[11:37] {dino} out myl .94,
[11:37] {dino} +.25
[11:38] {dino} azn news?
[11:40] {dino} cov azn .76, +.70
01[11:47] {@Threei} AstraZeneca Plc Pfizer said to be considering raising offer for the company to higher than $106B, with an increased cash component
01[11:48] {@Threei} DAL baby
01[11:48] {@Threei} out in full
01[11:48] {@Threei} 1:3 is close enough
[11:48] {Phil} nice :)
01[11:48] {@Threei} took its sweet time
[11:53] {dino} thx vad, out already
01[11:54] {@Threei} :)
[11:57] {Les} yhoo
[12:00] {dptl} watching m again
[12:04] {dino} vrtx spike
[12:04] {dptl} Vad, do you like coh 44 break short?
01[12:05] {@Threei} I do
01[12:05] {@Threei} just respect lunch time
01[12:05] {@Threei} half lot maybe?
[12:06] {dptl} k
01[12:06] {@Threei} IMF says Ukraine needs modified bailout if it loses the east
[12:06] {thomcbell} if or when
01[12:06] {@Threei} heh... remember once the world was all riled up about Crimea?
01[12:06] {@Threei} no one even talks about it anymore
01[12:07] {@Threei} now they started admitting it's possible for Ukraine to be broken up
01[12:07] {@Threei} next, they will inform Russia that they don't recognize those parts as part of Russia
01[12:07] {@Threei} and next yet, everyone stops talking about it
01[12:08] {@Threei} and thom, as far as I can see, it's not IF... I even tnink I can answer "when" question
[12:08] {dptl} i'll keep .06 stop on coh
01[12:09] {@Threei} Kerry says US know exactly who is ordering the separatists in Ukraine
01[12:09] {@Threei} really... is it that cimplicated?
[12:10] {Phil} I don't know why they can't just have a UN monitored referendum
[12:11] {Les} I like what armstrong says on Kerry
01[12:11] {@Threei} because they wouldn't be able to make it 93% then, Phil
01[12:12] {@Threei} don't assume Putin is interested to find out what they really think
[12:12] {Les} http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/29/kerry-said-nato-territory-will-be-defended-to-every-inch/
01[12:12] {@Threei} he simply needs a pretext, and he creates it
[12:13] {Alexs} where did you raed it about IMF remarks Vad?
[12:13] {Alexs} raed = read
01[12:14] {@Threei} http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/01/us-ukraine-crisis-imf-idUSBREA400J520140501
[12:15] {Alexs} Oh, so they are planning to give them more money in that case )
01[12:16] {@Threei} and Putin says "hey, that's a great idea! I will happily take that!"
[12:16] {Alexs} rofl
[12:16] {Les} yeh american taxpayers are paying for it
01[12:17] {@Threei} I have to say, IMF is a rare collection of imbeciles
[12:17] {Alexs} But listen, it could be interesting for new ukraine gov as well
01[12:17] {@Threei} they do hope to manage to steal some before they lose whole country, sure
[12:18] {Alexs} lol
01[12:18] {@Threei} good article Les
[12:18] {nemo} elephants flying?
01[12:18] {@Threei} as I usually do, I find Armstrong figuring it out exactly right
01[12:19] {@Threei} and I have answer to this rhetorical question of his:
[12:19] {Les} I like him cause he don't need the money. just scared shitless for his kids like other intelligent people
01[12:19] {@Threei} Once Russia believes it is invincible, who is then next?
[12:20] {nemo} Afghanistan
[12:20] {dino} lol, let them have it
01[12:20] {@Threei} Moldova, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, probably north of Kazakhstan
[12:20] {nemo} Alaska
01[12:20] {@Threei} he won't stop until he is stopped
[12:20] {dino} ibtx may be getting ready to bounce, hooker
01[12:20] {@Threei} they just don't understand him and his thinking
01[12:21] {@Threei} troub, welcome aboard
[12:23] {RonS} troubLE in river city?
[12:24] {troub} Thank you. Couldn't wait till June 1. Too much oppertunity here.
[12:24] {nemo} and free entertainment
01[12:24] {@Threei} :)
[12:24] {troub} Ron actually on the Neches River in Texas.
[12:25] {nemo} near where?
[12:25] {troub} And I hope to be no trouble.
[12:25] {troub} Beaumont
[12:25] {nemo} ahh
[12:26] {troub} hot, humid and great Cajun food
[12:26] {dino} ibtx smr l .25 risky
[12:26] {RonS} big bidness around there...
[12:26] {dino} glad to see you stayed troub
[12:26] {troub} thanks.
[12:27] {RonS} so troub, when did conn's move to Houston?
[12:29] {troub} Short time ago. Still have some central office here for a while but lots of movement to Houston.
01[12:29] {@Threei} dp, you covered COH?
[12:31] {nemo} cvx
[12:32] {nemo} it held that 125 level and dropped it now it's gonna retest it
[12:36] {Alexs} Vad, I don't think Putin believes that Russia is invincible he's just taking exactly what he knows nobody will defend
[12:37] {dino} alexs, putin knows obummer has no balls to stop him
01[12:37] {@Threei} yup
[12:38] {Alexs} but he will never move to Baltic countries because they are in NATO
01[12:38] {@Threei} I dunno about that... he knows no one wants war
[12:38] {dino} never say never
01[12:38] {@Threei} he will test their resolve
[12:39] {dptl} ye i am out coh Vad, not where i wanted but its ok
[12:44] {RonS} lol, hey troub Tabasco has 25% off on gallons on their website...
[12:46] {troub} That will last a lot cooks around about a week.
[12:46] {RonS} only problem i see is getting it into any other container...and, if you spill it does it eat the floor?
[12:46] {troub} no, you build an immunity. But watch out for the floor.
[12:47] {RonS} lol
[12:48] {RonS} actually the green sauce is mild and just tasty...not enough stores sell it around here...may go for the gallon...
[12:49] {RonS} the costco red sauce size lasts me about 2 years
[12:51] {dino} insanechicken.com has some good sauces
[12:56] {RonS} insanebunny.com has a stalker named nemo...
[12:56] {nemo} well bunny is female
01[12:57] {@Threei} lol
[12:57] {nemo} so May Day Europe closed and I doubt anybody will show up for work tomorrow
[13:00] {Les} oh come one we ain't all dole bludging sleazy communists
[13:02] {nemo} Les, found a picture of some of your old girlfriends: http://goo.gl/AhNHrY
[13:05] {RonS} rotflol
[13:05] {Les} god bless 'em all
[13:05] {Les} still not acrime in siwtzerland
[13:05] {Les} shit swatey habnds keyboard slipping
[13:08] {RonS} As many as 1,000 gunmen have seized buildings in more than 10 cities in eastern Ukraine: http://bloom.bg/1nM9jRw pic.twitter.com/nycQd1vNQE
01[13:09] {@Threei} footage on fox right now
01[13:09] {@Threei} storming of the building
01[13:12] {@Threei} full blown military exercise in Kiev yesterday - training of protection of the administrative buildings
01[13:13] {@Threei} they are preparing for Kiev to be a last stand
[13:13] {Les} 1k gunmen, that's a big gang
[13:13] {Les} ...
01[13:14] {@Threei} Long Setup: VXX .10 break hl
01[13:14] {@Threei} If holds 40
01[13:15] {@Threei} alternatively, take half lot here
01[13:15] {@Threei} .06
01[13:15] {@Threei} add half on .10 break
01[13:15] {@Threei} and consider .16 - .17 to be 1:1
[13:17] {dino} tough to get out of hooker, out ibtx .00, +.75
[13:18] {RonS} never could get in...was not gonna tie 2X4 to rear end and jump...
[13:19] {dino} lol, but it worked out well
01[13:24] {@Threei} Associated Press: NATO official says Russia now an adversary
[13:24] {Alexs} took a long time
01[13:24] {@Threei} no kidding, Putin never thought any different
01[13:25] {@Threei} but the idea just penetrated their thick skulls
01[13:25] {@Threei} Vladimir Putin appears determined to disrupt the May 25th presidential elections in Ukraine.
01[13:25] {@Threei} wrong
01[13:25] {@Threei} he doesn't mind at all, it's just that it will be elctions of president of non-existing state
01[13:26] {@Threei} if they elect president of Burkina-Faso in Kiev on May 25, he will be just as pleased
[13:27] {Alexs} I think Putin just consider himself as a main candidate
01[13:28] {@Threei} well, his elections end with 142%
01[13:28] {@Threei} 93% in Crimea was a total epic failure
[13:29] {troub} Remember Hitler invading Czechoslovakia to "protect" the ethnic German people? 1938 or 39
[13:29] {dptl} dal .20 short?
01[13:30] {@Threei} yup, sudetland
01[13:30] {@Threei} hl, dp, yes
[13:31] {dptl} ok
01[13:31] {@Threei} May 1 parade on Red Square, alex... first time since USSR breakup
01[13:31] {@Threei} 1:1 VXX if you took my two-stage entry version
[13:33] {dino} troub, same line being used by putin
[13:36] {dino} taking break
[13:38] {dptl} dal inval. for now
[13:41] {Alexs} yeah Vad, they are crazy, can't believe it
[13:44] {dptl} watching dal again
[13:44] {Alexs} took just 20 years, new generation of Russians still don't know what does it mean to live in the USSR
01[13:46] {@Threei} they'll find out...
[13:47] {dptl} in dal
[13:47] {dptl} hl
01[13:50] {@Threei} VXX again
01[13:51] {@Threei} 1:1 DAL
[13:51] {dptl} yes
[13:52] {thomcbell} look at aal vad
[13:52] {thomcbell} that thing is still up big
01[13:53] {@Threei} a bit more volatile than DAL
01[13:54] {@Threei} other than that, looks tradeable
01[13:56] {@Threei} 1:1 VXX for standard entry
[13:57] {Les} nice on dp thanbks man
[13:57] {dptl} yw all out
01[13:58] {@Threei} 1:2 VXX (combo entry)
[13:58] {Phil} all out vxx, thanks Vad
[13:58] {dptl} so jumpy that dal today......must be turbulence
01[13:59] {@Threei} phil :)
01[14:03] {@Threei} Ron
01[14:03] {@Threei} dp takes lessons from you
[14:03] {dptl} ?
01[14:04] {@Threei} 13:58] {dptl} so jumpy that dal today......must be turbulence
01[14:04] {@Threei} he is yellow to be sure, but we all started somewhere
[14:04] {dptl} oh...lol
[14:04] {RonS} green?
01[14:05] {@Threei} well yes, but during serious turbulence takes yellow tint
[14:15] {dptl} low .40 break short ?
01[14:16] {@Threei} not sure
[14:16] {dptl} ah...i got in
[14:22] {thomcbell} looking for some sort of relief rally in fnsr here
[14:26] {thomcbell} i nibbled on it long
[14:31] {RonS} for some reason that word grates me...just sayin
[14:32] {thomcbell} fnsr 25.39 long breaka if holding 25.30
[14:32] {RonS} if someone used that face to face wouldn't you just want to smack them? :)
01[14:33] {@Threei} hmmm
01[14:33] {@Threei} you have strangely high tolerance threshold, Ron... I want to smack many peiople for much less than that
[14:34] {RonS} lol
[14:34] {Les} ebay interesting
[14:35] {dino} .
[14:38] {nemo} wtf...my download speeds have doubled
01[14:39] {@Threei} oops... I forgot the "throttle nemo" button....
[14:39] {nemo} weird...only paying for half that
01[14:40] {@Threei} sorry guys, now he can insult everyine twice as fast
[14:41] {thomcbell} this hds is one to watch - trades incredibly well in the face of a big secondary print
[14:42] {dptl} i am out low flat
01[14:43] {@Threei} good idea... low fat products are usually harmful for your health
[14:43] {dptl} lol
[14:43] {dptl} and its just drop
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup: TZA .55 break
01[14:44] {@Threei} If holds .45
01[14:44] {@Threei} wityh trail to .49 after .60 break
[14:47] {dptl} in tza
01[14:50] {@Threei} nah
[14:50] {dptl} out
01[14:50] {@Threei} (US) Dept of Health and Human Services (HHS) totals Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) enrollments through the open enrollment period through April 19; Approximately 13M signed up for public and private insurance- 8M selected private plans through the marketplaces, 4.8M selected the public medicaid insurance program - 28% of enrollees aged 18-34 - 85% of enrollees requested financial assistance
01[14:51] {@Threei} lol... and who will finance these 85%?
[14:51] {thomcbell} out fnsr
[14:55] {dptl} gm .85 short?
01[14:56] {@Threei} too narrow...
01[14:56] {@Threei} Short Setup: C .62 break
01[14:57] {@Threei} If holds .70
[15:02] {dptl} in c
[15:17] {dptl} now its hard to beleive its going to work
[15:17] {dptl} db
01[15:18] {@Threei} nah
[15:18] {Phil} shame, such a pretty C&H
[15:19] {dptl} ahh....boy oh boy....just feeding broker today
[15:29] {dino} abtl spike
[15:35] {Les} guys outta here again. Not trading until some clear direction comes along. Working nights, sleeping days, wanna be doing something else besides fronting a screen in between. Maybe downtrend, more likely ATH breakouts but don't wanna sit on chop here thru end of summer
[15:35] {goinshort} thankas
[15:35] {Les} a+
[15:35] {goinshort} thanks all -cya
01[15:35] {@Threei} take care Les, gs
[15:35] {dino} cya les and gs
[15:38] {Alexs} Clear dirction was in the USSR only
01[15:40] {@Threei} lol
01[15:40] {@Threei} and for 5 years only
[15:41] {nathan} good night sirs, I enjoyed todays session
01[15:41] {@Threei} take care nathan
[15:42] {nathan} btw dino what's the name of the book u mention?
[15:42] {nathan} at the very begining of the morning?
[15:43] {Alexs} bible?
[15:43] {nathan} lol
[15:43] {dptl} short mdt
[15:43] {nathan} the bible of the trading?
[15:43] {Alexs} :)
01[15:44] {@Threei} not a book, nathan
01[15:44] {@Threei} he just quoted a phrase from one of Stephen King novelsm
[15:44] {Alexs} should read it instead of trading
01[15:44] {@Threei} "there are better worlds than this,"
01[15:44] {@Threei} meaning, there is always better stock tp pick if this one doesn't behave
[15:44] {nathan} ok thanks for clarifyin
[15:45] {nathan} have a good night
[15:45] {dino} nathan, not a book, just one of my edges, "better worlds". i go where others do not
[15:46] {nathan} thanks dino.
[15:54] {dptl} no..no time..unless it drops now mdt
[15:55] {troub} good night all
[15:55] {Alexs} gn troub
[15:55] {Phil} Thanks Vad, cya guys
[15:55] {dino} gn all, thx for ideas
01[15:55] {@Threei} thank you all, have a good evening
01[15:55] {@Threei} see you tomorrow
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)