Thursday, August 7, 2014

Aug 07 2014

Not our day even though we did a lot to repair initial stops. Remedied most of the loss, finished one good trade away from getting in black.

Session Time: Thu Aug 07 00:00:00 2014
01[09:07] {@Threei}  (IQ) France calls emergency meeting of UN Security Council to discuss situation in Iraq
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino, missed a few very good days actually
01[09:09] {@Threei}  despote it being august
01[09:09] {@Threei}  o=i
[09:10] {RonS} gm...3i been on fire
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {dino} figured as much. good to be back
01[09:12] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -SAAS +17% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -HZNP +15% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -CST +14% (announced acquisition General Partner of Lehigh Gas Partners LP)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -MCP +14% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -THOR -26% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -BWC -10% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -RNDY -9.2% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -ANN -8.5% (lower SSS & Rev guidance than estimated)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -SD -6.6% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -MPEL -5.5% (earnings/weighing on other Macau related names)
[09:25] {troub} good morning
01[09:25] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  man, you were so right about leaving to miss best trades...
01[09:26] {@Threei}  1:5 VXX, easy to execute, and over in 8 minutes
[09:27] {troub} maybe should try assumed name.  maybe nemo2
[09:27] {nemo} great...frickin' stalkers now
01[09:28] {@Threei}  just be omen
[09:28] {nemo} got my attack bunny to protect me
01[09:28] {@Threei}  want to sic him on ese?
[09:28] {nemo} WAG
[09:28] {nemo} yeah, gnaw off his fingers so he can't drum
[09:29] {nemo} that rabbit has teeth I'll tell ya'
[09:29] {nemo} when she yawns it's a scary sight
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break hl
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  73
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WAG  60 break hl
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:35] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei}  for now
01[09:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  73 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:37] {@Threei}  wow... third invalidation
[09:37] {nemo} WAG long off .50
[09:39] {RonS} better than third ugh...
01[09:39] {@Threei}  lol, yes
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:46] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:47] {@Threei}  rinse
01[09:48] {@Threei}  nervous trading this morning, gotta switch to pullbacks
[09:48] {nemo} no buying anywhere
01[09:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:50] {@Threei}  grrr
01[10:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break hl
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:04] {@Threei}  what the deuce today
[10:04] {nemo} indecision
[10:04] {nemo} chop chop chop
[10:04] {nemo} no breakout breakdown plays
[10:04] {nemo} IMO
[10:04] {nemo} and we know what that is worth
01[10:06] {@Threei}  another rinse
01[10:06] {@Threei}  sheesh
[10:09] {nemo} almost nothing on the algo, slightly more red, no momentum whatsoever out there
[10:14] {dino} athm sm l .75
[10:17] {RonS} nemo the cat?  pic.twitter.com/t0FmIQV8wn
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[10:18] {@Threei}  this just has to work, or I am going to a monastery
[10:18] {nemo} no
[10:18] {nemo} you're going to the IRon Maiden
01[10:18] {@Threei}  lol ron
[10:20] {nemo} Funny, guy walking his dog today on a leas
[10:20] {nemo} leash
[10:20] {nemo} about 40 feet behind him I see this cat  walking
[10:21] {nemo} guy walks on I kinda' call to the cat, it kinda' comes over
[10:21] {nemo} guy continues walking
01[10:21] {@Threei}  monastery it is
[10:21] {nemo} he gets about 50 yards away and turns around
[10:21] {nemo} calls to the cat
[10:21] {nemo} cat comes running
[10:21] {nemo} The cat walks with him when he walks the dog
[10:21] {nemo} funny sight
01[10:22] {@Threei}  cat thinks they walk the dog together
[10:23] {dino} sni drop
[10:24] {RonS} exel l 4.15
01[10:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  103 break
01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:36] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:36] {@Threei}  even blind squirrell...
01[10:36] {@Threei}  can fell the oak once in a while
01[10:38] {@Threei}  from this remark, try to determine what business company's in:
01[10:38] {@Threei}  Fienberg: Since the claims process started in the last week, we have processed 115 claims, about half of them are death claims, the others are for bodily injuries
[10:40] {dino} life
01[10:44] {@Threei}  that's GM
01[10:45] {@Threei}  no news for this sudden slloff
[10:45] {nemo} nobody bought the indexes up so they sold a bit
01[10:46] {@Threei}  say, if market spiked, would you modify that to "nobody sold, so.."?
[10:46] {nemo} my point, no continued upward momentum in a downtrend, so buying stopped
01[10:46] {@Threei}  if answer is yes, you are ready for analyst job
[10:47] {nemo} indexes couldn't break the range overhead, go to theo other side in the chop
01[10:47] {@Threei}  dino... nemo goes "added value camp" on us
[10:48] {dino} lol
01[11:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[11:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:01] {RonS} hearing Putin presser coming 12:30
01[11:02] {@Threei}  I doubt he announces his resignation
01[11:02] {@Threei}  change to .70 break
01[11:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[11:04] {@Threei}  hmmmm... I just found out why nemo would never survive in Victoria, probably no longer than a day or two
[11:04] {nemo} people are too nice?
01[11:04] {@Threei}  Victoria is found to be third friendliest city in the world, and friendliest in NA
01[11:05] {@Threei}  I think you'd just suffocate here
01[11:05] {@Threei}  although... there is ese... you could just take it out on him
01[11:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated  IWM
[11:06] {RonS} where is ese anyway?
[11:06] {nemo} molesting students
01[11:08] {@Threei}  should be around... haven't alerted me of any time off
01[11:08] {@Threei}  strike is still on
01[11:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[11:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:13] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[11:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:17] {@Threei}  this time should trigger
01[11:18] {@Threei}  and run
01[11:18] {@Threei}  fly
01[11:18] {@Threei}  to the moon alice
01[11:20] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:20] {@Threei}  that's not moon yet, don't stop
01[11:21] {@Threei}  .80 is moon
01[11:26] {@Threei}  oh well
01[11:26] {@Threei}  that was all she had
[11:41] {RonS} Mexico passes final rules to open oil industry to private firms: http://bloom.bg/1pcJwCj
01[11:42] {@Threei}  oil is so dead
[11:43] {RonS} ?
01[11:44] {@Threei}  price wise
01[11:44] {@Threei}  downward pressure is inevitable
01[11:45] {@Threei}  from many factors, including the repetition of Reagan's manoeuvre to strip Russia of financial footing
[11:48] {nemo} Mexico been talking that way for awhile
[11:48] {nemo} Their oil industry is a bureaucratic dumping ground
[11:48] {RonS} ya, but now it's done...
[11:48] {nemo} their production has been falling for years
[11:49] {RonS} yep...need to suck in a lot of investment so they can nationalize it again in 10 years...
[11:49] {nemo} yeah and BOHICA the investors
[11:52] {nemo} on oil...frickin' refiners have cut production to keep gas prices up
[11:58] {RonS} Putin to address Russian nation in a speech described as emergency
01[12:03] {@Threei}  I think it will be a talk about mutual sanctions
01[12:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
01[12:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:04] {@Threei}  market drops as if expects war announcement
01[12:04] {@Threei}  won't happen yet
01[12:16] {@Threei}  (IQ) Obama Administration is reportedly mulling possible military airstrikes on ISIS/Islamic State positions in northern Iraq -
01[12:19] {@Threei}  no go
01[12:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .25 break
01[12:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[12:36] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:36] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:38] {@Threei}  finally something decent
01[12:38] {@Threei}  doesn't make day positive but takes some sting off
01[12:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[12:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[13:03] {@Threei}  come on SPY, go to .60
01[13:03] {@Threei}  which should push IWM to .50
01[13:03] {@Threei}  then we will see about more
[13:03] {nemo} watch for spy short setup there
01[13:03] {@Threei}  no way
[13:03] {nemo} .50 actually
01[13:04] {@Threei}  it wants .80
[13:04] {nemo} went for the stops below yesterday
[13:04] {nemo} s low
[13:04] {nemo} it it's still weak, it'll stop here
01[13:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:14] {@Threei}  SPY behaves, IWM lags
01[13:22] {@Threei}  just a scalp again
01[13:32] {@Threei}  now it goes
01[14:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[14:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[14:16] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:17] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:21] {dino} gj
01[14:22] {@Threei}  ty
01[14:23] {@Threei}  slowly digging out of morning hole
[14:24] {dino} benn there
01[14:25] {@Threei}  anyone claiming he hasn't is a liar or never traded :)
[14:25] {nemo} I'm from Crete
[14:26] {nemo} WAG
01[14:26] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:26] {@Threei}  done
01[14:26] {@Threei}  one more like this and we'll be back in black
01[14:35] {@Threei}  wow
01[14:35] {@Threei}  underestimated
[14:36] {RonS} wow, have never seen it so dark during the day here...solar lights are on in the yard...epic thunderstorm...dangerous because you cannot see if there is a funnel
[14:37] {RonS} oh no, now hailing
[14:37] {RonS} wife is at the daughters
[14:37] {RonS} sounds like am in a shooting gallery
01[14:38] {@Threei}  wow
[14:40] {RonS} gutters in total overflow
[14:41] {RonS} some hail quarter sized
[14:48] {RonS} hail gone, rain to shower...moved to pound the east...Little Dry Creek (next to house) went from nothing to 4' across
01[14:49] {@Threei}  quite disturbance, lol
[14:49] {RonS} ...that's Colorado..."if you don't like the weather just wait 5 minutes"
[14:50] {RonS} hope the wife was not on the road...
01[15:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[15:10] {@Threei}  If holds  111
[15:15] {nemo} spy in the gap to .35
01[15:16] {@Threei}  nah
[15:27] {dino} another 80 pts april gap fill dji
01[15:46] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:46] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow



Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Aug 06 2014

1:5 in 8 minutes - not your every day's trade. VXX in all its glory. Love bearish moves


Very nice profitable day again.

Session Time: Wed Aug 06 00:00:00 2014

[09:12] {RonS} gm...wag the dog
01[09:13] {@Threei}  morning ron
01[09:15] {@Threei}  that was a good movie
01[09:15] {@Threei}  but why the reference? :)
[09:23] {troub} good morning
01[09:23] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Italy enters back into a technical recession; other EU data releases disappoint
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ENPH +21% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FOX +5.5% (withdrawal of bid for TWX)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DRYS +4.4% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SGMS +4.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ATVI +3.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -JAZZ +2.7% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CYTX -31% (ATHENA & ATHENA II trials put on clinical hold)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FUEL -30% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GMED -18% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -WAG -16% (announcement of Alliance Boots option action, initial FY16 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -S -16% (dropped bid for TMUS)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTSH -15% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NUS -14% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TWX -13% (withdrawal of FOX acquisition bid)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  gosh... now I dot it Ron, nevermind
01[09:26] {@Threei}  got
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CTSH (-13% earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  72 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .20 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  hl
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:36] {@Threei}  stop to .14
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .40 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei}  meh SALE
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:3  TWTR  close enough
01[09:49] {@Threei}  out
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .90 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:08] {@Threei}  P Tickes higher once again on renewed takeover chatter
01[10:10] {@Threei}  NUS.... sheesh
01[10:10] {@Threei}  dino will cry tomorrow
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FUEL  18 break hl
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:27] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:2, uh
[10:30] {RonS} +1210 tick
01[10:31] {@Threei}  nice breadth
01[10:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 brea
01[10:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:51] {@Threei}  no go
[11:06] {RonS} Sanctions against Russia accelerate global shift away from U.S. dollar: http://bloom.bg/1ATQjW8
01[11:14] {@Threei}  strange
01[11:14] {@Threei}  should be other way around
[11:14] {nemo} forcing trade in other directions, banking restrictions will limit use of dollar.  Russia will have to trade in other currencies
01[11:16] {@Threei}  war tensions tend to send haven-seekers to the currency safe from turbulence
[11:17] {nemo} yeah, but Russia needs to seek trade and can't trade completely in $...so what do you trade in?
01[11:17] {@Threei}  what did it do in cord war ear?
[11:18] {nemo} you were there, I wasn't
01[11:19] {@Threei}  but you were here - how did russia isolation impact dollar?
[11:19] {nemo} it didn't but it was a very different world back then
[11:19] {nemo} the $ was undisputed king
01[11:20] {@Threei}  this makes little sense to me
01[11:21] {@Threei}  look at this same article:
01[11:21] {@Threei}  One place the shift has become evident is Hong Kong, where dollar selling has led the central bank to buy more than $9.5 billion since July 1 to prevent its currency from rallying as the sanctions stoked speculation of an influx of Russian cash.
01[11:21] {@Threei}  see what I mean?
[11:21] {nemo} not really
01[11:22] {@Threei}  threat of local currencies rallying forces contral banks buy dollar
[11:23] {nemo} It's still a head I win tails you lose scenario for many countries currency versus the $.  They can't let theirs appreciate too much, yet they have to develop new mechanisms to trade in other currencies...balancing act
01[11:23] {@Threei}  yes but the outcome of the balancing is, status quo preserved
01[11:23] {@Threei}  they have to buy dollars,
01[11:23] {@Threei}  they increase their holdings,
01[11:24] {@Threei}  thus they can't let them drop
[11:24] {nemo} but the mechanisms are developing to make trading in non-$ denominated debt possible across a greater number of currencies
01[11:24] {@Threei}  this is self-sustaining thing that pretty much makes USD invincible and its dominance unbreakable
01[11:24] {@Threei}  nope
[11:24] {nemo} mmmmmhhhh]
[11:24] {nemo} never say never
01[11:24] {@Threei}  that's a wishful thinking
01[11:25] {@Threei}  if that goes through, USD drops making their holding melt
01[11:25] {@Threei}  so they themselves will do everything possible to avoid that
01[11:25] {@Threei}  real danger to USD is not there
01[11:25] {@Threei}  these guys don't understand big picture
01[11:26] {@Threei}  Real danger is from within, from those who underatand just how unbreakable USD dominance is, and push it and oush it
01[11:26] {@Threei}  until one day they will push too far
01[11:26] {@Threei}  and ruin whole world financial system
[11:27] {nemo} back to the barbarous relic=real money
01[11:27] {@Threei}  but the problems that come with that are of such magnitude that USD dominance will be the last thing to worry about
01[11:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .45 break
01[11:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:29] {@Threei}  one more worthy quote:
01[11:30] {@Threei}  greenback has weathered numerous crises. It emerged from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, endured the introduction of the euro almost three decades later and maintained its status as a haven currency even when the 2008 collapse spread from Wall Street to economies around the world.
01[11:30] {@Threei}  is russian crisis bigger than any of those events?
01[11:32] {@Threei}  wrong again on short
[11:32] {nemo} I think the article said "hasten" away from yes?  Well it is causing further mechanisms to develop to trade in the $, yes?
[11:32] {nemo} out of rather
01[11:33] {@Threei}  well, it's wrong, IMO
01[11:33] {@Threei}  here is real trend:
01[11:33] {@Threei}  The U.S. currency climbed against all 16 major peers last month as fighting in Ukraine and the downing of a Malaysian jet over the country enhanced the appeal of haven assets. It extended gains today as NATO warned of a Russian incursion in Ukraine under the “pretext” of a humanitarian mission
01[11:34] {@Threei}  so, author of the article sees his mental construct, and trading trend,
01[11:34] {@Threei}  they are in contradiction
01[11:34] {@Threei}  what he choses to believe? :)
01[11:34] {@Threei}  apparently his construct
01[11:34] {@Threei}  reminds you antyhing?
[11:35] {nemo} people who believe in marriage?
01[11:35] {@Threei}  that too
[11:35] {nemo} don't be pickin' on bunny, I can hear u thinking
[11:39] {RonS} Italy's renewed recession drags euro to nine-month low against the dollar: http://bloom.bg/1sua2Id
01[11:40] {@Threei}  that makes sense
01[11:41] {@Threei}  just wait for EU crisis to reinflame, and for Russia to invade Ukraine, and USD will be flying in stratosphere
[11:43] {nemo} was it something I said?
[11:44] {troub} gotta run. always have winners when I leave so have fun.
[11:44] {nemo} sorry
01[11:49] {@Threei}  ugh, .60 was the right entry
01[11:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  NUS  .60 break hl
01[11:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:55] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:56] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:57] {@Threei}  dino-like trade
[11:57] {RonS} ya was going to say:  good one dino, er 3i
01[11:57] {@Threei}  hehe
[12:09] {nemo} VXX looks long and SPY looks like short setting up, but might go for 193 stops first
[12:17] {nemo} well, coulda' picked your poison
[12:19] {nemo} we need to thank troub for leaving
01[12:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[12:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[12:49] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:16] {@Threei}  had 1:2 in it but rinsed the balance
01[13:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  vxx .15 break
01[13:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[13:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[13:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:51] {@Threei}  1:3
01[13:53] {@Threei}  1:4
01[13:54] {@Threei}  almost 1:5, over and out
[13:55] {RonS} a beaut thanks 3i
01[13:56] {@Threei}  yw :)
01[14:00] {@Threei}  visual: http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2014/08/aug-06-2014.html
[14:54] {nemo} MON
[14:59] {RonS} outta here early...real nice day...see you in the morning
01[15:06] {@Threei}  take care ron
01[15:28] {@Threei}  thanks guys, have a good evening
01[15:28] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Aug 05 2014

Starting the day with 4 straight wins. Here are two of them:



Very nice day overall, continuing pretty much as it started and ending up with 1:3 on IWM long.


Session Time: Tue Aug 05 00:00:01 2014
[09:14] {RonS} gm guys
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:15] {troub} good morning
01[09:16] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  "Russia is turning into a second North Korea, only much, much larger, and far more dangerous"
[09:28] {nemo} numbers 10:00
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AIG +2.1% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GTAT +3.7% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -THC +1.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CAR +5.0% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -COH +2.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ODP +5.7% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ISR +15% (positive results seen in Cesium-131 isotope for brain cancer)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -SALE -20% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AEIS -7.1% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -FIVN -22% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -LF -13% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -ARCO -5.9% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -ENZY -36% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -BLMN -10% (earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  73 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .60 break hl
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:3  FB
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1  SALE
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:38] {@Threei}  out
[09:39] {troub} want off early again today?
01[09:41] {@Threei}  hehe
01[09:41] {@Threei}  gs will be upset... he came in around 2 yesterday
01[09:41] {@Threei}  and all that he had left was to read the log
[09:48] {goinshort} morning all!
01[09:48] {@Threei}  gs :)
01[09:48] {@Threei}  man... missed 2 1:3ers
[09:48] {goinshort} of course I did!
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .40 break hl
01[09:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:49] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .80 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:53] {@Threei}  (close enough)
[09:53] {nemo} u playin' horseshoes?
[09:54] {goinshort} nice n fast  thanks
01[09:54] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:54] {@Threei}  I feel better, gs :)
[09:54] {nemo} numbers in 5
01[10:03] {@Threei}  (US) AUG IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 44.5 V 47.3E
01[10:03] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 58.7 V 56.5E (highest since Dec 2005)
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .75 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  change to .70
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:07] {@Threei}  still hl
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:4, out
[10:17] {nemo} gooing to .40ish
01[10:21] {@Threei}  there
01[10:21] {@Threei}  good call
[10:22] {nemo} one of my broken clock moments
01[10:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .35 break
01[10:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:37] {goinshort} nice call SALE - thanks
01[10:41] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .25 break
01[10:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[10:55] {goinshort} be back later
01[11:06] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:08] {troub} stp'd me @ .14 blah!
01[11:09] {@Threei}  it barely touched it with just coupke small prints and bounced right back immediately...
[11:09] {troub} yea.  fast broker with stops
01[11:10] {@Threei}  auto stops?
[11:10] {troub} that was, yes
01[11:10] {@Threei}  hate them
01[11:10] {@Threei}  and this is one of the reasons why
01[11:25] {@Threei}  touched 1:2, remainder stopped on a trail
[11:29] {RonS} blmn dieing...put a steak in it...
01[11:29] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:29] {@Threei}  took me a few
[11:30] {RonS} ya...actually my favorite steakhouse:  Fleming's
01[12:24] {@Threei}  (CA) Reportedly Canada and EU have finalized language of trade agreement, will announce the deal later today -
01[12:24] {@Threei}  English, I guess?
01[12:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break
01[12:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[12:33] {@Threei}  no go
[12:36] {nemo} try it now
01[12:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[12:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[12:51] {@Threei}  Hospital officials in Colombus, Ohio say they are testing a person who recently traveled to West Africa for potential Ebola exposure
01[12:56] {@Threei}  half out
01[12:56] {@Threei}  stop to .49
01[13:00] {@Threei}  to .54
01[13:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:26] {@Threei}  had mor in it, eh'
01[13:40] {@Threei}  no news that I see
[13:41] {RonS}  http://news.yahoo.com/russias-putin-orders-response-western-sanctions-154018201.html
01[13:42] {@Threei}  Hillary will never see her daughter studying in Kaluga university...
01[13:47] {@Threei}  UBS's Art Cashin: latest move down in the market is technical in nature - CNBC
[13:50] {RonS} guess cat'o nine tails is technical...
01[13:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[14:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:01] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:01] {@Threei}  Financial Times: Russian troop build-up accelerates
[14:02] {RonS} driving Porches to the front?
01[14:03] {@Threei}  I wish
01[14:03] {@Threei}  tanks, ACs, Grads more like it
01[14:03] {@Threei}  AVs
01[14:09] {@Threei}  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYy4S--PBQM
01[14:10] {@Threei}  column of military equipment on Russia side of the border, moving toward Ukraine
01[14:13] {@Threei}  wow FB
[14:22] {RonS} wag gone pulp
[14:24] {nemo} lost it's prescription, huh Ron?
01[14:24] {@Threei}  WAG Said to be close to announcing takeover of Alliance Boots but will keep its US headquarters - UK press
[14:25] {RonS} guess the Boots kicked the stock...
[14:26] {nemo} that wasn't worthy of you
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  110 break
01[14:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[14:45] {@Threei}  111
[14:45] {nemo} 111 trades
01[14:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:56] {nemo} mmmhhh...getting that short feeling
[14:58] {nemo} IWM needs to hold above .15 spy above .25
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[15:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[15:16] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:19] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:21] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:21] {@Threei}  out
[15:21] {RonS} good one
01[15:22] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:22] {@Threei}  so far August goes quite well
01[15:22] {@Threei}  despite all the skeptics
01[15:37] {@Threei}  ugh... missed FB setup at .40
01[15:38] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:38] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Monday, August 4, 2014

Aug 04 2014

6 calls. 6 wins. Who says Mondays are bad? Ending trading session early and happy.


Session Time: Mon Aug 04 00:00:00 2014
[08:29] {nemo} if KORS trades when the market opens like it is now, it's going to be a train wreck of epic proportions
01[09:07] {@Threei}  quiet and narrow
01[09:09] {@Threei}  KORS so far... a few more will come
[09:10] {RonS} gm...wish this was funny:  BREAKING: Pres Obama is said to be so frustrated over Congress's refusal to impeach him said he will sign executive order to impeach himself
01[09:10] {@Threei}  Ron :)
01[09:12] {@Threei}  actually it is mildly funny
01[09:16] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -PIKE +50% (Board agrees to $12/shr going-private offer from Court Square Partners & CEO Eric Pike)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -DRTX +10% (momentum from 8/1 license & supply agreement with Angelini for Dalbavancin in certain European territories)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -MEET +10% (earnings)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -MBLY +7.8% (positive momentum from IPO on 8/1)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -VNR +7.8% (signs agreement to acquire properties in North LA & East TX for $278M)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -TKMR +7.6% (continued Ebola outbreak fears)
01[09:16] {@Threei}  -LGND +7% (earnings)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -INSM -26% (regulatory update for ARIKAYCE with European authorities)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -DEPO -8% (no news seen, earnings are 8/6)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -HK -7.2% (negative broker commentary, potential momentum from last week's earnings)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -TUBE -5.6% (potential profit-taking, premarket share price falling below $9 debut on 7/18)
01[09:17] {@Threei}  -KORS -2.5% (earnings & FY15 gross margin guidance)
[09:17] {RonS} was at a lake beach w/ daughter's family...group of Hmong there...interesting that the western diet has not affected their height...very small people still
[09:17] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  I'd guess it's genetics :)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[09:35] {@Threei}  out'
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:4
[09:38] {troub} nice beginning Vad
01[09:38] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:38] {@Threei}  somewhat strange trading... too uneven
[09:38] {nemo} August Monday
01[09:39] {@Threei}  yeah, and without dino and ese volume suffers
[09:41] {nemo} "without...ese"  is a mixed blessing
01[09:43] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .60 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:43] {nemo} .77 vwap
[09:44] {nemo} a little spready
[09:45] {nemo} seeting up short again
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  73 
01[09:47] {@Threei}  valid
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:2  
[10:06] {nemo} OXY
01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .75 break
01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 
01[10:21] {@Threei}  to .69
01[10:21] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:26] {@Threei}  next push please
01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  26 break
01[10:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .06 
01[10:54] {@Threei}  sloooow
[10:55] {nemo} as a snail crawling through a puddle of molasses
01[10:56] {@Threei}  one-legged snail
01[10:56] {@Threei}  half out .93
[10:56] {nemo} they have legs?
01[10:57] {@Threei}  they move, so they must
01[10:57] {@Threei}  for instance look at the snake - it's all one big leg
01[10:58] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:59] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[11:03] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[11:03] {@Threei}  slow but sure :)
01[11:15] {@Threei}  1:3  SLW  close enough
01[11:16] {@Threei}  out +.27
01[11:16] {@Threei}  that's 4:4
01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break
01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[11:27] {@Threei}  - Among other movers, Groupon is up nearly 6% ahead of earnings after the close on Tuesday
[11:28] {nemo} aapl
01[11:28] {@Threei}  - Shares of luxury goods name Michael Kors are down nearly 8% in the early going despite a pretty strong first quarter report. The firm widely beat top- and bottom-line expectations, saw a 24% gain in comps and raised its FY15 outlook. However on the conference call, executives warned that margins would be compressed due to increased markdowns and disclosed a big increase in inventories, hitting the stock hard.
01[11:28] {@Threei}  half out
01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[11:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break
01[11:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[11:33] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[11:41] {@Threei}  1:2  IWM  close enough
01[11:52] {@Threei}  6 calls, 6 wins
01[11:52] {@Threei}  want to finish trading session on this?
[11:53] {troub} probably should although I missed 2 of them
01[11:53] {@Threei}  4 out of 6 is not too shabby
01[11:53] {@Threei}  afternoons are much more random
01[11:53] {@Threei}  I say why spoil perfect day
[11:54] {troub} do you have Nemo's permission?
06[11:54] * @Threei slants at nemo
01[11:56] {@Threei}  I think he is asleep
[11:57] {RonS} tend to agree 3i...great performance for a Monday...
01[11:58] {@Threei}  :)
01[11:58] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you, see you tomorrow!



Friday, August 1, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market UpdateVolatility Strikes Back



Market volatility picked up this week the array of policy and geopolitical concerns that have lurked in the background for weeks started to hit home. The EU formally announced more biting economic sanctions against Russia over its meddling in Ukraine. Argentina entered a technical default after dragging its heels in settlement talks with holdout creditors. In the US, the FOMC maintained the pace of QE tapering and tweaked its policy statement to acknowledge somewhat higher inflation and continuing labor market slack, although the hawkish notes garnered more attention among analysts. The initial reading of Q2 US GDP showed economic growth came roaring back from the Q1 stumble. The July jobs report was less good than the excellent June numbers, but hardly weak. July confidence, ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence all came in much stronger than expected. The solid US numbers contrasted with another four -year low in European July CPI data, weak Japanese employment, manufacturing and employment numbers and continuing geopolitical stress emanating from Israel and Ukraine, and the VIX index of S&P500 volatility shot up toward the end of the week, trading as highs as 17.50 on Friday, its highest level since mid-March. During the week, the selloff in high-yield bonds accelerated, and for the month of July registered their biggest price declines in over a year, as lofty valuations and concerns about the potential for interest-rate increases drove a flight from funds that hold riskier debt. For the week, the DJIA tumbled 2.8%, the S&P500 declined dropped 2.7% and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%.

- The FOMC adjusted its statement in two notable ways. On the dovish side, commentary on the labor market acknowledged that conditions had improved and "there remains significant underutilization of labor resources". This is consistent with Chair Yellen's moves to watch a broader selection of employment indicators and furnish a rationale for keeping policy easy as unemployment falls toward 6% and beyond. On a more hawkish note, the statement acknowledged that inflation "has moved somewhat closer" to target and the FOMC "judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2% has diminished somewhat," removing the previous warning about the risks of persistently low inflation.

- The other major change in the decision was Philadelphia Fed President Plosser's dissent, in objection to the low rates for "a considerable time period" language. In a letter of explanation released on Friday, Plosser said the job market has improved more rapidly than expected yet the Fed hasn't shifted course, warning the FOMC's language was an inappropriate characterization of the future path of policy and could limit flexibility going forward. Dallas Fed President Fisher said that despite his opposition to some Fed policies, he felt the debate within the committee had shifted in his direction, especially given the FOMC statement language that inflation was moving closer target.

- The Q2 US GDP data was very strong, at +4.0% v +3.0%e, and the final Q1 reading was revised to -2.1% from -2.9%. Two components had an outsized role in sending the headline number higher: consumption and inventories. Consumption bounced back from a +1.2% rate in Q1 to a healthy +2.5% rate in Q2, concentrated in durable goods spending. Meanwhile, inventories added about 1.6 percentage points to the GDP figure, which more than offsets the 1.16 point drawdown in inventories seen in Q1.

- General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all reported another strong month of sales gains in July, though the numbers ran slightly below expectations. Ford and GM sales gained 10% and 9.4%, respectively, while Chrysler sales were up 20% y/y. Ford's truck sales recovered from June's slide lower, and GM's inventory fell. A GM sales executive said strong sales should continue through the balance of the year, with plenty of pent-up demand for trucks and SUVs. Toyota and Nissan both saw 11%+ gains in sales.

- Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo is at the edge of collapse after the firm's reported a giant €3.57 billion loss for the first half of the year. The bank holding company, RioForte, and units Espirito Santo International SA Espirito Santo Financiere all sought bankruptcy protection in Luxemburg. There were reports that the Portugal government would bail out the company with public funds, just days after the Bank of Portugal said the firm would be able to resolve its capital shortfall in public markets.

- Most of the energy majors reported quarterly results this week. Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco all beat earnings expectations on solid profit growth, thanks to higher oil prices, although all three saw production fall y/y. Second-tier names Occidental and Marathon also saw similar results. Refiners Phllips 66 and Valero both missed earnings expectations thanks to a slump in refining profits, as margins fell on the higher crude prices in the quarter.

- Pharma giant Amgen crushed expectations on 23% y/y net profit growth and hiked its FY14 guidance. Amgen also said it would cut 12-15% of its workforce and restructure operations. Pfizer and Merck saw solid profit gains, although revenue at both firms was stagnant and both tightened up guidance. Regarding its failed bid for AstraZeneca, Pfizer's CEO said he was still open to M&A deals, regardless of size.

- Kellogg and Colgate missed revenue expectations and Kellogg cut its FY14 guidance outlook. Kellogg saw revenue sag in key North America markets, while overall revenue fell slightly. Clorox's result was more muted, and the firm warned FY15 revenues would be flat. Procter & Gamble reported strong quarterly results, good FY15 guidance and disclosed a plan to sell off up to 100 of its brand holdings. Card companies Visa, MasterCard, and American Express all disclosed very strong results, with solid gains in payment volumes.

- Shares of momentum names Tesla, LinkedIn, and Twitter saw strong gains post-earnings. All three had good quarters, however shares of Twitter outperformed the bunch, gaining approximately 25% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Twitter quieted doubters with big gains in MAUs, advertising revenue, and overall performance seen in the firm's second quarter.

- Two high-profile merger deals announced this week were immediately met with skepticism. Online real estate site Trulia agreed to be acquired by competitor Zillow for $3.5 billion in stock. Critics point out that neither company is profitable and the promised cost savings from the deal would get the combined company to about breakeven. Family Dollar agreed to be acquired by Dollar Tree for $74.50/share, in a total deal valued at $9.2 billion. Activist Carl Icahn has been pushing FDO to sell itself to one of the other dollar store operators, and analysts note that both firms have flagging sales, very different business models and few cost saving synergies.

- The one-way trade in EUR/USD turned around in the second half of the week after the US jobs report. By Wednesday, the pair had dropped to eight-month lows around 1.3370, driven lower by the continuing contrast between US economic recovery and Europe's slow slide into deflation, Russia sanctions, US GDP strength and hawkish notes in the FOMC statement. However the slightly less-than-perfect jobs report on Friday gave FX traders an excuse to buy the euro, sending the pair back to the highs of the week, around 1.3445.

- In July, cable posted its worst monthly performance since March 2013, down about 1.2%. GBP/USD tested below 1.6820 briefly on Friday. Analysts suggest the recent run of softer UK economic data has shifted market expectations on the timing of a rate hike to early 2015 from late 2014. In Japan, the weaker data sent USD/JPY out to six-week highs above 103.

- The Shanghai Composite remained relatively insulated from the turmoil in the US markets, rising another 2.8% this week following last week's 3.2% leap. Beijing's targeted mini-stimulus measures have clearly hit their mark, as China industrial profits grew at the fastest pace in 5 months, and the official manufacturing PMI topped consensus by three-tenths to reach 27-month high at 51.7. Comments from the National Bureau of Stats were tempered after these data, noting the low base effect in industrial profits and also warning about the risks remaining in the smaller sectors of the economy. The HSBC manufacturing PMI, which surveys less prominent firms, did decline to 51.7 from the 52.0 flash print but still remains at an 18-month high.




Aug 1 2014

A few good ones, a few rinses - finishing somewhat in the red overall. Good positive week though.


Session Start: Fri Aug 01 00:00:00 2014

[09:01] {dino} gm
[09:04] {RonS} gm...did i crash the board yesterday w/ that jobs comment?  mea culpa...
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:04] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:05] {@Threei}  well, last call on DDD made just before the crash worked
01[09:05] {@Threei}  hope someone got it
[09:14] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:16] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BYI +32% (acquisition by SGMS)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -LNKD +9.2 (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AWI +6.2 % (ValueAct discloses stake, broker comments)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SYNA +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BOTA -40% (Phase 2 Trial of Laninamivir Octanoate Did Not Meet Primary Endpoint)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -WWWW -24% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -YRCW -15% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -PXLW -12% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GPRO -11% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ADNC -9.8% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MT -5.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EEP -4.2% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ATHL: -4.1% (pricing of public offering at $46.25/shr)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  WHO: If the ebola situation in West Africa continues to worsen, the consequences could be catastrophic
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .90 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  45
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {dino} arrs sm l .14
[09:33] {ese} gm
01[09:34] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .20 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  actually, let's change to .25 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:39] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei}  both calls worked as two-sided
01[09:41] {@Threei}  gotta watch for these setups and call as such
01[09:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  73 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:42] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:44] {@Threei}  rinse
01[09:47] {@Threei}  ugh... 1:3
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:49] {dino} kors sm l .50
01[09:55] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 81.8 V 81.8E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JUN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -1.8% V 0.5%E
01[10:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  31 break
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (US) JULY ISM MANUFACTURING: 57.1 V 56.0E; PRICES PAID: 59.5 V 58.0E
[10:02] {ese} hmmmmm
01[10:06] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  73 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:06] {@Threei}  valid
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:11] {dino} kors stop -.30
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:13] {@Threei}  finally hooked one
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:15] {@Threei}  closed
[10:17] {goinshort} nice call V -thanks
01[10:25] {@Threei}  :)
[10:31] {nemo} VRSN
[10:43] {nemo} OXY
01[10:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[10:44] {@Threei}  ugh, late
[10:46] {nemo} OXY looks long above .20 if it holds .10
[10:47] {nemo} this tempo today though makes me think you'll get a flush after it breaks.  Might be better to see if break holds, or if it doesn't when it comes back in it stays near .10 then comes right back up
01[10:47] {@Threei}  grrr VXX
[10:49] {nemo} OXY holding in this down move
[10:58] {nemo} there's your 1:1
[10:59] {nemo} think .70ish a reasonable target
[11:00] {nemo} oh well
01[11:06] {@Threei}  can you believe we were 5 seconds late for VXX?
01[11:06] {@Threei}  1:9
[11:12] {RonS} cjes gone pulp
[11:12] {RonS} feye gone gone
[11:16] {nemo} X short
[11:32] {nemo} it's going down while spy is strengthening, should test the close and maybe lows
01[11:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[11:38] {@Threei}  If holds  72
[11:40] {nemo} X at yestrday's close
01[11:42] {@Threei}  nah'
01[11:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[11:50] {@Threei}  If holds  110
01[11:51] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:52] {RonS} -1432 tick
01[11:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  110 break
01[11:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:54] {@Threei}  a lot of emotions suddenly
01[11:55] {@Threei}  *(AR) ISDA RULES THAT ARGENTINA IS IN A FAILURE TO PAY CREDIT EVENT
01[11:55] {@Threei}  how is it news
01[11:56] {@Threei}  kust an acknowledgement
01[11:56] {@Threei}  just
[11:56] {ese} it just is
[11:56] {dino} feye sm l .60
01[12:00] {@Threei}  ugh
01[12:04] {@Threei}  rinse
[12:09] {RonS} lol...Friday, markets melting but what I wanna know is what #Bacon prices are doing?
01[12:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:09] {@Threei}  lol
[12:11] {dino} bacon is sizzling
[12:17] {ese} looks like the DJ is going to hit that 162.7 target you were talking about yesterday dino
[12:17] {ese} the gap
[12:18] {dino} markets down 4% from highs last week. 4-5% has been the buy area
[12:19] {dino} maybe so ese
[12:19] {dino} media seems to be a doom and gloom
01[13:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[13:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[13:14] {@Threei}  hate today's afternoon
[13:14] {nemo} question is, do we get short covering later
[13:15] {ese} make a great weekend all.....cya next week
[13:15] {nemo} 1.5 break now
[13:15] {nemo} .15
01[13:15] {@Threei}  take care ese
01[13:16] {@Threei}  (*&#$@*
[13:16] {nemo} there's ur 1:1  and then some
01[13:16] {@Threei}  another rinse
[13:17] {nemo} indexes in short formation
[13:17] {nemo} stop around .10ish
[13:18] {nemo} it's got to get above .25
[13:18] {nemo} gnite
[13:19] {nemo} Have fun storming the castle....
[13:30] {dino} uwm hl l .30
[13:32] {nemo} forgot about the uwm
[13:33] {nemo} not for the faint of heart
[13:36] {nemo} would think vxx long around vwap too
[13:38] {nemo} R1 there too
[13:43] {nemo} vxx long .35
[13:43] {nemo} stop under Vwap
01[13:44] {@Threei}  nice entry
[13:45] {nemo} first target .55
[13:45] {nemo} next above .70
[13:46] {nemo} interesting if vxx continues to come in today, still complacency
[13:47] {nemo} sheesh
[13:47] {nemo} support @ .17
[13:48] {nemo} another setup forming
[13:48] {nemo} this would be buy it here with stop under .17 or wait until break of .40
[13:49] {nemo} put the stop under the doji
[13:49] {nemo} having said that, don't have short setups on indexes
[13:49] {nemo} yet
[13:54] {nemo} is this the vxx higher low?
[13:55] {nemo} what's tough are the other indexes are at VWAP
01[13:55] {@Threei}  really can't tell
[13:55] {nemo} yeah, nobody knows what to do here
[13:55] {dino} markets are going up
[13:55] {nemo} I've got the scarecrow signal at the moment
[13:57] {dino} out feye .90, +.30
[13:57] {nemo} you're so frickin' lucky
[13:59] {nemo} there go the VWAP stops
[13:59] {dino} not really, too tight on trail
[13:59] {nemo} frickin' stop  hunters
[13:59] {nemo} damn short sellers
[13:59] {nemo} ffffnnnn hfters
[13:59] {nemo} commie bastids
06[13:59] * nemo thinks he's had enough coffee
[14:00] {nemo} 31.92 next support
[14:01] {nemo} and the algos bought the whole number
[14:10] {dino} out uwm .71, +.41
01[14:10] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:10] {dino} ty
[14:15] {nemo} hah, vxx low......93
[14:20] {RonS} didn't want to raise it while ese was here but wonder if he's holding wprt?...
01[14:20] {@Threei}  he did?
01[14:21] {@Threei}  I remember BLDP
[14:21] {RonS} pump and dump vancouver bastids...
01[14:22] {@Threei}  :)
[14:22] {nemo} I copyrighted that
01[14:33] {@Threei}  (US) President Obama plans statement at 1435ET - Note: A Variety of issues could be discussed, including discussions about Congress failing to accomplish certain items before their August break, Ebola, and/or recent conversation with Russia President Putin on the Ukraine issue. May also discuss the jobs figures from this morning
[14:36] {RonS} jhChrist, what could go wrong?  Pentagon says Ebola patients will arrive at Atlanta-area air base via non-military aircraft
[14:37] {dino} whatever happened to containing epidemics
[14:37] {dino} next thing that will happen is they will transort them on cruise ships
[14:38] {dino} feye hl l .60
01[14:38] {@Threei}  my only questiin is: will entire Congress go greet them? shake hands? hug?
[14:38] {dino} maybe they are planning to thin the herd
[14:39] {RonS} meet & great with the central am kids?
[14:40] {cosmo} its called airborne Ebola...
01[14:52] {@Threei}  (US) President Obama: Will veto the House Republicans' 'extreme' scaled down border legislation - notes the Republican border legislation is unworkable
[14:56] {dino} feye out .84, +.24
01[14:56] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:56] {dino} ty
[14:56] {dino} btw, will be on vacation until thursday
01[14:59] {@Threei}  difficult life
01[15:00] {@Threei}  you will have to undertake that extremely stressful golf, won't you?
[15:00] {dino} yes, legends mooreland, heathland, parkland and oyster bay
[15:01] {dino} tough job, but somebody has to do it
01[15:03] {@Threei}  we owe you a debt of gratitude
01[15:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[15:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:09] {troub} dino, need an elderly caddy?
[15:13] {dino} prefer a hot one
[15:13] {nemo} that'll go over well with your wife
[15:13] {dino} yeah, thats probably pushing it. but you do see them on the course
[15:14] {nemo} dcc dino
[15:14] {troub} age descrimination?
[15:15] {nemo} are you a hot older one?  then no
[15:16] {troub} well I sweat a lot
[15:17] {nemo} ex-politician troub
[15:17] {nemo} ?
01[15:50] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday
01[15:51] {@Threei}  have fun dino
[15:51] {dino} ty, and gn

Thursday, July 31, 2014

July 31 2014

Catch of the Day, classic double bottom


Session Start: Thu Jul 31 00:00:00 2014

[08:46] {nemo} Brian on his way, but says he won't have time to have lunch
01[08:47] {@Threei}  too bad
[08:47] {nemo} calls me "toad"
01[08:47] {@Threei}  lol
[08:48] {nemo} Decided against going to Maine, going to the Cape instead.  I told him you don't want to be in Cape traffic on a Friday afternoon, so they're coming up today
[08:49] {nemo} I thought it was interesting the VIX closed in the upper end of its range yesterday
[08:51] {nemo} twtr has no bids
01[08:54] {@Threei}  no kidding
[08:57] {nemo} tempte to short here
[08:59] {nemo} this is the 50% retrace
01[09:03] {@Threei}  from where?
[09:03] {nemo} the aftermarket high on earnings
[09:03] {nemo} touched it to the penny
[09:09] {nemo} tested 45 couldn't get through
[09:10] {nemo} 44.20 next support
[09:14] {nemo} yelp looks short here
[09:15] {nemo} what a spread though
[09:19] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:20] {@Threei}  troub :)
[09:25] {RonS} gm
01[09:25] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -VPRT +21% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -OTEX +11% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -LPSN +15% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -ROSG +7.1% (signs agreement w/pharma company for Alzheimer's diagnostics)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -YELP -5.2% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AKAM -6.1% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -WFM -5.5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MOH -7.4% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GLUU -9.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CODE -11% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EHTH -27% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MTW -9.1% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -QUIK -22% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -DDD -12.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EDAP -38% (concern re: FDA Advisory Committee Meeting on Ablatherm-HIFU for prostate cancer)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  a few names are down on concern over potential Argentinian bond default
[09:31] {ese} gm
01[09:31] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:32] {@Threei}  changr to .70 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {nemo} two way, look at that gap below
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:33] {@Threei}  out
[09:36] {nemo} can't type for shit, but can sure whack those lightning plays
01[09:37] {@Threei}  I can type perfectly fine if I have time... which is not the case with lightning plays
01[09:38] {@Threei}  in fact, I can type better than anyone who tries to type with swimming fins on his hands
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .25 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:43] {nemo} I was just gonna short, and you called a long
01[09:44] {@Threei}  you could have faded it?
01[09:44] {@Threei}  mine never triggered
[09:44] {nemo} yeah, but made me think we were both rwrong
01[09:45] {@Threei}  " rwrong"... I will ignore the chance for a sweet revenge...
01[09:45] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 52.6 V 63.0E
[09:45] {nemo} glass houses dude
01[09:49] {@Threei}  dino, DDD
01[09:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .30 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:59] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:59] {nemo} same thing again
01[10:00] {@Threei}  you shorted?
[10:00] {dino} any news for the market drop?
01[10:01] {@Threei}  not really... agrentinian default possibility, but
[10:04] {dino} thats been going on for a month
01[10:04] {@Threei}  it's in critical phase :)
01[10:06] {@Threei}  YELP looks ready
01[10:07] {@Threei}  spread is jumpy, not for faint hearts
01[10:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .30 breal
01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[10:09] {@Threei}  change to .25
01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {dino} db l .45
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:11] {dino} safm sm l ave .78
[10:12] {RonS} arcb sm l 33.90
01[10:19] {@Threei}  TWTR had more in it
01[10:19] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[10:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:20] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:20] {RonS} out arcb 34.80 +.90
[10:21] {ese} s small tsra .40
[10:22] {dino} gj ron
[10:22] {RonS} ty
[10:23] {ese} gutsy too ron..huge spread
[10:25] {dino} cnc hl l .14
01[10:25] {@Threei}  yeah, I dunno how you guys do it without constant uninterrupted supply of fresh diapers
[10:26] {ese} lol
01[10:26] {@Threei}  it's all dino's fault, he invented diaper trading
[10:26] {RonS} ya ergo small...was coming into support
01[10:26] {@Threei}  ugh FB... got away
[10:28] {ese} cov tsra .20 +.20 dino sm 400shs
[10:28] {ese} crap 2 seconds later
[10:29] {dino} gj
[10:29] {ese} ya tks
01[10:29] {@Threei}  GTAT Ticking higher on circulation of blog reports that a Kyocera phone will be sapphire coated and functional
[10:29] {RonS} tedu l 12.30
01[10:42] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .40 break
01[10:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[10:47] {@Threei}  no go
01[10:57] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break
01[10:57] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:57] {@Threei}  can't believe I missed .20 short...
[10:57] {ese} porche sales not in trouble:Reports 1H op profit €1.4B v €1.29B y/y, Rev €8.2B v €7.07B y/y - Deliveries covering the period from the beginning of January to the end of June rose by eight percent to 87,803 vehicles compared to the same period last year - Exec: "The resulting depreciation and rising labor costs put an ever increasing strain on our results. Add
[10:58] {ese} Add to this the very high expenditure for research and development, in particular in connection with reducing fleet carbon emissions," Confirms that Porsche intends to achieve at least the same level of results in fiscal year 2014 as in the previous year. - Source TradeTheNews.com
[10:58] {ese} gonna have to get me one I guess
01[10:59] {@Threei}  couple more scalps and you can afford it from your intraday profits
[10:59] {ese} is today more about the possible Argentina default or the jobless claims and purchasing mgrs report
01[10:59] {@Threei}  change CAT to .65 break
01[10:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:00] {@Threei}  who knows
01[11:00] {@Threei}  and who cares
01[11:00] {@Threei}  analysts will tell us tomorrow
[11:00] {ese} time for retracement i guess
01[11:00] {@Threei}  they know everything after the fact
01[11:00] {@Threei}  assign explanation, and you have this illusion of order and predictability
01[11:01] {@Threei}  and stroke your ego
01[11:01] {@Threei}  and maintain reputation of the one who in the know
01[11:01] {@Threei}  but to tell what is going to happen tomorrow - none of them can
[11:01] {ese} ya for sure
01[11:02] {@Threei}  and not because they are bad, or stupid or anything like that,
01[11:02] {@Threei}  but simply because it's unpredictable
01[11:02] {@Threei}  the fact that they refuse to acknowledge
[11:02] {dino} slca hl l .48
[11:03] {ese} well...190 should be the next stop for the spyders
[11:03] {ese} it's clearly down after breaking though it's 50 ma
[11:04] {ese} but wha do I know
[11:04] {RonS} McClellan at -88 bottom is close
01[11:04] {@Threei}  dangerous thing to ask with nemo around
01[11:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated  CAT
[11:05] {nemo} yeah bounce signals in idiot indicators and algo
[11:06] {ese} what can I tell ya....I'm trying to maintain my reputation of being in the know!
[11:06] {nemo} you mean,  "In the NO!"
[11:06] {ese} lol
[11:07] {ese} WHERE THE HELL IS LES??  Somebodys gotta take the pressure off me!!!!!
[11:07] {nemo} bohica ese....
[11:08] {ese} where the hell is bohica?  Rather.....what the hell is a bohica.....
[11:08] {nemo} google it
[11:09] {ese} am scared of what I might find
[11:10] {__hrhartman} i'm back
[11:11] {ese} BOHICA acronym, although pronounced as if it is a single word, for "Bend over! Here it comes again."
[11:12] {ese} sheesh
[11:29] {troub} .
01[11:30] {@Threei}  can't get a sense, bounce or breakdown
[11:33] {__hrhartman} odd wonky mkt today. some days yah just sit on yr hands, dont take a trade
[11:35] {dino} yeah
01[11:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .50 break
01[11:48] {@Threei}  that was fast
01[11:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:50] {dino} gut saying btfd
[11:56] {nemo} they'll take this below 194
[11:57] {dino} dji off 3% from highs few days ago
[11:58] {nemo} what's worse, looking at the SPY daily the next set of serious stops are probably below 193
[11:59] {dino} breaking s3, showing may gap 187.6 area
[11:59] {nemo} s4 193.52
[12:00] {dino} 162.38, april dji gap
[12:02] {ese} I can barely see that gap....
[12:02] {dino} need glasses
[12:02] {ese} i think so
01[12:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .60 break
01[12:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
[12:15] {dino} buying some calls
01[12:17] {@Threei}  change to .40 breeak
01[12:17] {@Threei}  .50 sorry
01[12:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:17] {ese} haven't had a day like this for a while
01[12:18] {@Threei}  with this much selling you mean?
[12:20] {ese} I don't think the volume is up there is it......seems like just constant downward pressure...wringing out some excess i guess
[12:27] {dino} agree ese, pretty orderly fall imo
01[12:29] {@Threei}  1:1
[12:30] {dino} gj
01[12:30] {@Threei}  ty
01[12:31] {@Threei}  finding order in chaos
[12:31] {ese} ya seems orderly to me dino
[12:32] {ese} I still think dj is going to hit 166 before any support .50 to go
01[12:34] {@Threei}  1:2
[12:35] {ese} as soon as I make that call....look what happens
[12:35] {ese} theres goes my credibility all shot to hell
[12:35] {dino} lol
[12:36] {__hrhartman} chaos is good, shakes out the public a tad, good adj & reset
01[12:36] {@Threei}  ese, you just can't stop feeding nemo, can you?
[12:37] {nemo} too easy
01[12:37] {@Threei}  chaos is our most favorite trading environment, yes
[12:37] {nemo} he's starting to make Les look like a genius
[12:38] {__hrhartman} yup, panic = profit
01[12:40] {@Threei}  1:3
01[12:40] {@Threei}  1:4
01[12:40] {@Threei}  over and out
[12:45] {dino} aapl hl l .70
01[12:46] {@Threei}  visual: https://upload.facebook.com/RealityTrader/photos/a.237133656321317.63196.235739863127363/807903705910973/?type=1
01[12:46] {@Threei}  oops, wrong link
[12:47] {dino} uwm hl l .91
01[12:47] {@Threei}  or not... works?
01[12:50] {@Threei}  this should be better: http://goo.gl/bCGQ4d
[13:05] {__hrhartman} chart looks great, "being there" even better.
01[13:10] {@Threei}  :)
01[13:29] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .30 break
01[13:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[13:36] {@Threei}  EU gives final approval to sanctions against Russia
01[13:36] {@Threei}  no go GLD
[13:42] {dino} out uwm .35, +.44
01[13:43] {@Threei}  wtg
[13:43] {dino} out aapl .10, +.40
[13:43] {dino} out scla calls +.25
[13:43] {dino} slca
[13:45] {dino} out vxx puts +.15
01[13:48] {@Threei}  ok, now you are showing off
[13:50] {dino} wait for it.....
[13:50] {dino} out cnc .52, +.44
01[13:50] {@Threei}  sigh
[13:51] {dino} opps, +.30
01[13:51] {@Threei}  ahhha!
01[13:51] {@Threei}  lol
[13:52] {__hrhartman} brb in 45m
[13:59] {ese} pretty interesting wild flucuations going on
[14:06] {dino} out slca .78, +.30
01[14:09] {@Threei}  having pretty good day eh dino?
[14:09] {dino} now, am couple stops
[14:14] {nemo} VXX
01[14:20] {@Threei}  you think?
01[14:20] {@Threei}  can't decide here
[14:21] {dino} xiv hl l .25
01[14:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  DDD  .20 break hl
01[14:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
[14:30] {nemo} Jobs report tomorrow
02[14:33] * Disconnected
Session Close: Thu Jul 31 14:33:19 2014


Wednesday, July 30, 2014

July 30 2014

Third win, second 1:3-er:


Server crash cut our trading session short; with 3 wins under the belt and this being Fed day, we decided to take the rest of the day off.

Session Time: Wed Jul 30 00:00:00 2014
[09:06] {nemo} should be a slow day until granmama
01[09:07] {@Threei}  are we in a hurry?
[09:07] {nemo} So, Brian is delivering his monitors to me on the way up to Cape Cod
01[09:07] {@Threei}  most haven't even woken ip yet
[09:07] {nemo} he's moving to Korea
01[09:07] {@Threei}  up
01[09:07] {@Threei}  today?
[09:07] {nemo} tomorrow or Friday
01[09:08] {@Threei}  hope you have a chance to spend some time with them
[09:08] {nemo} if tomorrow yes, if friday, no
[09:10] {nemo} pretty good spy volume actually
01[09:13] {@Threei}  3 mil... not bad
01[09:14] {@Threei}  9:30 spike on GDP news provided some jolt
01[09:17] {@Threei}  A day after sanctions, Russia bans Polish fruit and vegetable
01[09:17] {@Threei}  right
[09:18] {troub} good morning you all
[09:18] {ese} gm
[09:18] {goinshort} gm all
01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub, ese, gs :)
[09:19] {ese} bldp beats....top and bottom...i'm hangin in there with3k at 3.84
[09:20] {__lrhartman} gm
01[09:20] {@Threei}  morning lrh, welcome to the room
01[09:20] {@Threei}  hope you don't mind abbreviation
[09:20] {__lrhartman} Thank you.
[09:20] {__lrhartman} No, is good
[09:20] {ese} vad short troub hart baby!!!!!!!
[09:21] {nemo} oh jeez, speaking of vegetables
[09:21] {ese} mornin nemo
[09:21] {nemo} that's "omen" to you
01[09:21] {@Threei}  BLDP is your swing trade ese, right?
[09:22] {ese} a "bad" omen?
[09:22] {ese} yes
01[09:22] {@Threei}  works nicely
[09:22] {ese} probably keep that there forever or until somebody buys out the company
[09:22] {goinshort} spy
01[09:22] {@Threei}  decent daily
[09:23] {ese} yes.......check out the 10 year monthly for the big picture
[09:24] {RonS} gm...x crushed into a volume pocket, 39 mil sh short
01[09:24] {@Threei}  can't... 10 is my limit in counting, I don't want to go right to the limit
01[09:24] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:24] {ese} or back to 2002/03
[09:24] {ese} ya could be dangerous
01[09:24] {@Threei}  that's even worse, that's beyond my math abilities
[09:24] {ese} counting higher that is
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TWTR +25% (earnings/metrics, positive broker commentary)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ZLTQ +25% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NQ +25% (receives non-binding proposal from Bison Capital at $9.80/ADS)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ASML +3.5% (EUV tool at IBM exceeds expectations)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -X +14% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -EXAM +8.8% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ZLTQ +25% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -BCS +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -TRN +7.1% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -AEGR +15% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -RUBI +18% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -GRMN +8.0% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -ADT +7.8% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CETV +9.1% (earnings)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  SODA +7.7% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -YPF +11% (momentum/results tonight)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -SRPT +13% (CEO speculation)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -BWLD -7.9% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -DWA -13% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -GPRE -5.1% (earnings)
01[09:27] {@Threei}  -PWE -11% (management initiated internal accounting review and potential re-statements)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EBS -4.6% (FDA issued complete response letter for ixinity)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  FB interesting for short setup
01[09:29] {@Threei}  gotta use TWTR as a lead for FB today it seems
[09:30] {ese} 29 Jul 17:30 [BLDP] Reports Q2 -$0.03 v -$0.03e, R$18.5M v $15.5Me - Reaffirms FY14 adj EBITDA break even, Rev +30% y/y (prior EBITDA adj to break even, Rev +30% y/y) - Source TradeTheNews.com\
[09:30] {ese} this is huge for a company....breaking even
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .30 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
[09:33] {RonS} hate to say it but i hate vancouver bc companies...home to more fraud per capita than any place on earth outside of moscow... re bldp
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:34] {@Threei}  you are thinking mining companies ron
01[09:34] {@Threei}  most of the rest are civilized
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2  FB  close enough
01[09:40] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:40] {@Threei}  me out
01[09:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .15 break
01[09:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:59] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:00] {RonS} dino grmn
01[10:01] {@Threei}  lord give me strength to refrain from "GRMN lost its way" remark
01[10:02] {@Threei}  Invalidated  FB
[10:02] {nemo} you failed
01[10:02] {@Threei}  I usually do
[10:04] {dino} cnc hl l .75
01[10:04] {@Threei}  HLF... Ackman gets a break or what
[10:04] {dino} thx ron, on it
[10:05] {dino} grmn sml .36
01[10:10] {@Threei} Short Setup: EBAY  .30 break
01[10:10] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:18] {dino} grmn stop -.31. damn had .40 on it
01[10:19] {@Threei}  stop to .36
[10:19] {dino} rinsed
01[10:25] {@Threei}  stop to .31
01[10:26] {@Threei}  half out
[10:27] {dino} grmn sm l .20
01[10:29] {@Threei}  good girl EBAY
01[10:32] {@Threei}  to sum up the first hour: 3 winning calls, no single insult from nemo, no single president appearance on TV... I'd say good start
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:2
[10:35] {nemo} settling in to the Fed coma
[10:37] {dino} safm sm l .01
01[10:46] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:46] {@Threei}  me out
01[10:46] {@Threei}  anyone's awake?
[10:46] {nemo} [10:35] {nemo} settling in to the Fed coma
[10:46] {__lrhartman} awake, ebay was sweet
01[10:46] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:47] {@Threei}  following along fine, lrh?
[10:47] {nemo} how's the shoulder Vad?
01[10:47] {@Threei}  hurts, as always after 3 wins
[10:47] {nemo} probably starting to get arthritis
01[10:47] {@Threei}  I set an ambisious goal - pat my left shoulder blade with right nad from under left knee
01[10:48] {@Threei}  with right hand
01[10:48] {@Threei}  as you can imagine, it's anything but easy
[10:48] {nemo} I think if you place your head somewhere it would help ;-)
01[10:49] {@Threei}  first (feeble) insult attempt, at the second hour? man, you are getting old
02[10:49] * Disconnected
Session Close: Wed Jul 30 10:49:48 2014

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

July 29 2014

Very strong day with 3 opening wins, a few sprinkled scalps and couple small stops here and there, ending with 1:3 on VXX long. Pretty happy with trading session.


Session Start: Tue Jul 29 00:00:00 2014


[09:32] {nemo} frickin' ese thought "omen" was somebody else
01[09:33] {@Threei}  now he doesn't leave that room
[09:33] {nemo} put him in a round room and tell him to piss in the corner...would probably be pretty entertaining
[09:35] {ese} i'm here i'm here!!!!!!!!  let the bells ring let the banners fly i'm here!
01[09:35] {@Threei}  ok, now the rest should dismiss their first e-mail, read their second, wake up and join - in that order
[09:36] {cosmo} good...now i can stop trouble shooting....geez
[09:37] {ese} lol
01[09:38] {@Threei}  dino :)
[09:38] {dino} gm
01[09:39] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[09:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 
01[09:41] {@Threei}  change to .70 break
01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
01[09:44] {@Threei}  to .64
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1  
[09:47] {dino} cvlt hl l .00
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[09:47] {@Threei}  see GALT dino? :)
[09:51] {dino} yeah, paying for promoting, john would be appalled
01[09:51] {@Threei}  hehe
01[09:55] {@Threei}  wow
01[09:55] {@Threei}  FB, TWTR
01[09:55] {@Threei}  sharp drop
01[09:56] {@Threei}  JPM Reportedly to cut "hundreds" of technology workers
01[09:57] {@Threei}  (US) Preview: July Consumer Confidence Index expected at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT) - Consensus expectations: 85.4e v 85.2 prior **Note: The prior June reading was the highest since Jan 2008
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (US) JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE : 90.9 V 85.4E
01[10:00] {@Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .30 break
01[10:00] {@Threei}  ugh, late
01[10:00] {@Threei}  grrr
01[10:01] {@Threei}  double grr
01[10:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .05 break
01[10:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .99 
01[10:08] {@Threei}  half out
[10:11] {dino} glt smr l .08
01[10:12] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[10:23] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .15 break
01[10:23] {@Threei}  If holds  .05 
[10:23] {dino} out cvlt 49.66, +1.66
01[10:23] {@Threei}  wtg
[10:23] {dino} ty
01[10:25] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[10:26] {@Threei}  so far so good, want to find couple more before afternoon coma
01[10:26] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  106 break
01[10:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[10:28] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[10:33] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[10:34] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .30 break
01[10:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 
01[10:36] {@Threei}  1:3  
01[10:36] {@Threei}  out
01[10:36] {@Threei}  that's 3:3
[10:38] {goinshort} nice cat call! thanks
[10:38] {nemo} no pun intended
01[10:39] {@Threei}  gs :)
[10:39] {goinshort} lol
01[10:39] {@Threei}  hehe
01[10:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .10 break
01[10:43] {@Threei}  If holds  125 
[10:43] {dino} glt to .38
01[10:43] {@Threei}  FB stop to .36
01[10:43] {@Threei}  out
01[10:49] {@Threei}  rinse
01[10:49] {@Threei}  (RU) EU said to have formally agrees to next round of sanctions on Russia - financial press - Said to have reached agreement on the composition of the new package of sanctions.
01[10:49] {@Threei}  wow... is it real?
[10:52] {ese} Whats that all about
01[10:52] {@Threei}  which part?
[10:57] {dino} mw drop
[10:57] {goinshort} cya later - thanks
01[11:00] {@Threei}  take care gs
[11:14] {dino} out glt .38, +.30
01[11:18] {@Threei}  nice
[11:26] {dino} ty
01[11:27] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .15 break
01[11:27] {@Threei}  If holds  .05 
01[11:29] {@Threei}  nah
01[11:29] {@Threei}  easy money has been made
[11:31] {nemo} FB on algo weak side
01[11:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .20 break hl
[11:36] {troub} good morning
01[11:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[11:36] {@Threei}  troub :)
[11:36] {RonS} mw sm l 52.89
[11:36] {RonS} out mw 53.45 +.56
01[11:37] {@Threei}  wtg
[11:37] {RonS} sorry for late initial post but i had to get the sell order in...the thing is pulp
01[11:45] {@Threei}  1:1  
[11:45] {dino} gj
[12:09] {RonS} pulling out all the stops for Nov:  Obama said to plan to let millions of undocumented immigrants obtain work permits:  http://bloom.bg/1ryp3Gu  
01[12:10] {@Threei}  great
[12:13] {RonS} shoulda done an mw part dukes...dews...deaux?
01[12:16] {@Threei}  [BBRY] Ford to swich to Apple mobile devices for its workers, dropping Blackberry - financial press Ford to switch about 3,000 employees to Apple devices this year and another 6,000 over the next two years.
01[12:17] {@Threei}  uh oh
01[12:17] {@Threei}  (HU) Hungary Econ Min Varga: our banking system is stable and banks have ample capital
[12:19] {RonS} freakin huns...
[12:19] {RonS} ...heard a roman say that once...
[12:21] {cosmo} they ride horses, i herd...
[12:22] {RonS} lol cosmo
[12:24] {dino} lol
01[12:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break
01[12:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 
[12:34] {dino} cbi drop
01[12:36] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[14:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .85 break
01[14:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .80 
01[14:19] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[14:22] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .60 break
01[14:23] {@Threei}  Invalidated  
01[14:24] {@Threei}  no news for this selling
01[14:26] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
01[14:26] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 
01[14:27] {@Threei}  nah
01[14:30] {@Threei}  light rinse
01[14:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  74 break
01[14:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .10 
01[14:42] {@Threei}  valid still
01[14:44] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[14:44] {@Threei}  nice rug pull
01[14:46] {@Threei}  Obama wrote Putin about violation of nuclear treaty, White House says
01[14:46] {@Threei}  they are pen pals now?
01[14:47] {@Threei}  hey bud, you know that nuclear treaty we both used to... yeah, that one. Guess what - it's been violated today
01[14:48] {@Threei}  (UR) US President Obama plans statement on Ukraine issue at 1450ET
01[15:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[15:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[15:07] {@Threei}  change to .40 break
01[15:07] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 
01[15:22] {@Threei}  1:1  
01[15:30] {@Threei}  1:2  
01[15:33] {@Threei}  pretty good day overall
[15:34] {dino} out vxx .58, +.13 ty vad
01[15:35] {@Threei}  yw
01[15:44] {@Threei}  1:3  
[15:46] {dino} gj
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ty
01[15:47] {@Threei}  pretty happy with today, that weekend was good for me :)
01[15:47] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:48] {@Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow

Friday, July 25, 2014

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market UpdateEarnings, Wars and Data



- Global markets vacillated between earnings and geopolitical conflict this week. There was a steady drumbeat of negative news out of Israel and eastern Ukraine, with bloody headlines countering much of the decent news from quarterly earnings reports. Quarterly reports out of the US and Europe were pretty strong, with only a few earnings disasters weighing on broader indices, though the earnings stinkers were in marquee names such as McDonalds and Amazon. June US housing data was mixed, inflation continues to be very subdued and weekly jobless claims took an unexpectedly big dip, possibly due to seasonality. In Europe, the first reading of UK GDP for Q2 indicated that annualized economic growth was back above 3.0% for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, though this was offset by worse than expected retail sales data. In China, July flash PMI numbers were very good, helping the Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets handily outperform US and European indices. For the week, the DJIA lost 0.8%, the Nasdaq slipped 0.4%, and the S&P500 was about unchanged.

- June data offered contrasting views of the US housing sector. The June existing home numbers pushed out to eight-month highs and the May figures were revised slightly higher. According to the NAR, inventories are at their highest level in over a year and price gains have slowed to much more welcoming levels in many parts of the country. Meanwhile June new homes sales tumbled to 406K from May's eight-year high of 504K. Quarterly numbers from two homebuilders also saw some weaker trends: Pulte Homes saw closings and its backlog decline on a y/y basis (although new home orders were up 5% y/y), while M/I Homes saw a y/y contraction in new contracts signed. D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the US, saw a 15% y/y gain in its backlog and a 25% gain in net orders.

- Inflation is still not showing up to the party, according to the June CPI data out this week. The increase in the headline CPI index was mild enough to keep the y/y growth rate unchanged at 2.1%, while the y/y growth rate of the core fell to 1.9%. Food prices decelerated faster than expected, turning in a flat performance in June after four months of growth. Energy prices were up less than expected.

- Fighting raged all week in eastern Ukraine, with pro-Russia forces shooting down more military aircraft and Russia supplying more heavy weapons. More EU sanctions on Russia appeared imminent, with action expected by the end of July. Sanctions could include a ban on investment in Russian banks, an arms ban (but not retroactive, allowing France to deliver contracted Mistral warships) and some form of energy sector sanctions. On Friday, EU President Van Rompuy was urging member states to restrict sale of technology to the Russian oil sector while excluding the gas sector from sanctions, which sent oil and gas futures in divergent directions. On Friday, the Russian central bank raised its key rate by half a point to 8%, citing heightened geopolitical risks to the ruble.

- A federal appeals court overturned a lower court ruling that allowed subsidy payments under the Obamacare reforms. The ruling voids the regulations that allow subsidies for insurance that is purchased through federal exchanges. Most commentators agreed that with several similar cases outstanding and more rulings to come, this decision was not terminal for the ACA.

- Bill Ackman's promise to deliver a deathblow to Herbalfe fell flat this week, buried under hundreds of slides in a hours-long, rambling presentation. Ackman asserted that the company deliberately targets lower income people and certain ethnic groups to expand its sales and runs nutrition clubs that are just as fraudulent as Enron trading rooms, but his presentation left the impression that Herbalife was merely a parasitic MLM, rather than any kind of pyramid scheme.

- General Motors' quarterly report took a big hit from recalls, but even before accounting for recalls profits were down sharply y/y. Meanwhile Ford beat earnings expectations on modest profit growth. Caterpillar hiked its FY guidance and beat expectations, and its June dealer statistics improved slightly from May's very bad performance. Defense/aerospace names Boeing, Northrop, and General Dynamics topped earnings expectations, while Boeing and Northrop both hiked FY14 EPS guidance.

- American Airlines announced its first dividend since 1980, at $0.10/share, based on record quarterly profits of $1.5 billion in Q2. American's revenues grew 75% y/y as the company has soared out of bankruptcy. United Airlines recovered very well from its first quarter losses, as Q2 earnings that topped expectations. Southwest beat expectations on solid profit growth. JetBlue's results were right in line on modest growth.

- Microsoft's fourth quarter revenue saw very strong gains y/y while net income declined slightly. Server and cloud sales continue to do quite well, even as the phone business flounders. Apple's revenue fell a bit short, but the company said it sold 35.2 million iPhones, up 13% y/y, with China iPhone sales up 48% y/y. On the strength of its quarterly report, shares of Facebook pushed out to new all-time highs, up approximately 100% from the IPO price. Facebook's user metrics sustained double-digit gains, and the firm said it had 1.5 million active advertisers, up from 1 million last June. Multiple analysts cut their ratings and/or price targets for Amazon after it reported negative operating income in its second quarter and forecast more of the same for Q3. Amazon executives said the losses were driven by business investment.

- The euro tumbled lower this week, dropping to fresh year-to-date lows. Besides a brief reversal on Thursday, the trade was one way: EUR/USD dropped from 1.3550 on Monday and closed a few pips off its low of 1.3421 on Friday. Traders say the gradual widening of interest rate differentials between the US and Europe are strengthening the greenback: the premium offered by two-year U.S. Treasuries over German debt has widened to around 46 basis points, levels not seen since 2007. The key break below 1.3477 (the January low) makes many think the pair has a ways to go to the downside. Similar dynamics sent the pound lower against the dollar. Additional downside momentum came from the weak June UK retail sales data and the lack of dissenting views in the minutes from the BoE's July policy meeting. FX traders had been bracing for a more hawkish tone among some members.

- Concerns about the Chinese property market have taken a back seat to more signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector. The July HSBC flash PMI jumped to an 18-month high of 52.0, well above the 51.0 expected, as the new orders and input prices components increased at a faster rate. HSBC cited the cumulative impact of mini-stimulus measures, commenting that policy makers would maintain their accommodative stance over the next few months to consolidate the recovery. The Shanghai Composite rallied impressively after the PMI data, ending the week up 3.2% at a three-month high. Monetary authorities in Beijing have also been noticeably more proactive, suspending their liquidity mop-ups on two occasions this week.

- Kiwi dollar tumbled nearly 2% against the greenback below $0.8550 mark, to six-week lows against the USD and AUD. As expected, the RBNZ hiked rates for the fourth time to 3.50%, but also signaled a pause in tightening. Governor Wheeler was increasingly critical of the elevated FX rate in the face of the falling dairy prices and slowing export growth, calling it "unjustified and unsustainable" with potential for a significant fall. In Australia, Q2 CPI topped consensus and now sits at the high end of RBA's 2-3% target range. While analysts remain unconvinced that the central bank would consider tightening measures in 2014, the case for more RBA rate cuts has now been closed.