Aug 11 2014

One 1:3 (FB), one 1:4 (VXX), a few stops and scalps. Positive overall, and mostly boring

Session Time: Mon Aug 11 00:00:01 2014

[08:55] {dino} gm 3i

01[08:56] {@Threei}  morning dino

[09:17] {troub} good morning

01[09:17] {@Threei}  troub :)

[09:18] {RonS} howdy everyone

01[09:18] {@Threei}  ron :)

01[09:22] {@Threei}  once again market's happy on misunderstood empty promises of deescalation

[09:23] {dino} perception is reality

01[09:23] {@Threei}  absolutely

01[09:27] {@Threei}  just gotta be careful, military evelopment can come any moment and send market down in a hurry

01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .40 break

01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 

01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:3  

01[09:33] {@Threei}  out .73

[09:33] {goinshort} wow nice one V!

01[09:33] {@Threei}  :)

01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .50 break

01[09:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 

01[09:37] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[09:40] {@Threei}  Upside:

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -PIP +60% (court awards company lump sum expectation damages from SIGA; could be up to $350M)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -KMI +17% (announces agreement to purchase KMP, KMR & EPB for $70B)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -DRL +25% (in negotiations with Puerto Rico govt. ahead of trial over tax refund)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -KMP +24% (KMI deal)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -KMR +30% (KMI deal)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -EPB +27% (KMI deal)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -MNKD +20% (licensing deal with SNY regarding Afrezza worth up to $925M)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -TKMR +13% (continued Ebola momentum)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -HGSH +23% (signs 2 porject agreements in Hanzhong City, worth up to $1.3B)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  Downside:

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -DF -8.5% (earnings)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -GOGO -2.9% (earnings)

01[09:40] {@Threei}  -SIX -1.5% (no news seen)

01[09:41] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .10 break

[09:41] {RonS} six...roller coaster riders got stuck...

01[09:41] {@Threei}  If holds  43 

01[09:42] {@Threei}  SPY

01[09:42] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[09:43] {@Threei}  wtf

01[09:43] {@Threei}  (UR) Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Reached agreement with Ukraine and the Red Cross on a humanitarian mission to provide aid in eastern Ukraine, mission could begin shortly

01[09:43] {@Threei}  this doesn't sound right

01[09:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break

01[09:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .40 

[09:50] {ese} gm.....took the week off...traveled as far as vancouver.....and painted the front of my house...and almost broke myright big toe

01[09:50] {@Threei}  hey ese

[09:50] {ese} vad

[09:51] {nemo} the resident Trotskyite

01[09:51] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

[09:52] {RonS} quit biting your big toenail and break potential goes away...

[09:52] {nemo} sndk is short but spready

[09:52] {ese} its a moniker I can handle

[09:52] {ese} lol

[09:52] {nemo} what ese?  Invalidated?

[09:52] {dino} lol ese, broke my right toe next to pinky toe july 1st. tough walking for two weeks

[09:52] {nemo} you guys got nothing on me

[09:53] {ese} ya we went into the doctor ...thank goodeness it wasn't broken...dropped a full can of paint on it.....shit did that hurt.....

01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break

01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 

[09:53] {nemo} when I was 18 did some serious damage to the big toe.  It was fine until about 6 or seven years ago...Oy frickin' Weh

[09:53] {ese} still hurts

[09:53] {dino} stubbed mine on bed post late night

01[09:54] {@Threei}  ah... toe os a device for locating the furniture in low light conditions

[09:54] {ese} lol

01[09:55] {@Threei}  FB two-sided

[09:55] {nemo} it's having trouble with vwap it looks either short or choppy

[09:58] {dino} added db calls

01[10:00] {@Threei}  FB looks crashy

01[10:00] {@Threei}  wouldn't even try to break with SPY rally

01[10:02] {@Threei}  die already, will ya

01[10:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  32 break

01[10:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .90 

01[10:04] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

[10:07] {nemo} iwm likely going to the 200 day up around .70

01[10:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .45 break

01[10:09] {@Threei}  change to .40 break

01[10:09] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 

01[10:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break

01[10:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .60 

01[10:11] {@Threei}  Invalidated  WMT 

[10:12] {nemo} wag

[10:12] {nemo} WAG

[10:13] {RonS} barrons effect...wag

01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:1  VXX 

01[10:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break

01[10:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[10:24] {@Threei}  nah

01[10:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .36 break

01[10:28] {@Threei}  .35

01[10:28] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 

01[10:30] {@Threei}  hesitant market

[10:31] {dino} data sm l .12

01[10:31] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

[10:32] {dino} lci sm l .98

01[10:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SWI  .80 break

01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 

[10:35] {RonS} mr market...can i get an appointment to trade swi?

01[10:35] {@Threei}  yeah, let's disregard it

01[10:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CMCSA  .03 break

01[10:36] {@Threei}  If holds  .95 

01[10:40] {@Threei}  Russian sanctions dim Greek hopes for exit from recession

01[10:40] {@Threei}  lol

01[10:41] {@Threei}  Greece is trying to exit whetever it's in, for like 5 years already

01[10:41] {@Threei}  if Russia was its last hope, I say it exits recession in 2114

[10:42] {RonS} lol

01[10:43] {@Threei}  to put it in diplomatic terms, no one living today will last long enough to see Greece exiting recession

[10:45] {RonS} Greek recession since Roman conquest?

[10:45] {flash} Best to all. Trade Green : )

01[10:45] {@Threei}  gone in a flash

06[10:46] * @Threei looks around expectantly

06[10:46] * nemo deducts point for Mr. Obvious

[10:46] {RonS} lol

06[10:46] * @Threei tips his hat

[10:46] {RonS} definition of flash trading?

01[10:47] {@Threei}  Captain Obvious is a title I'll defend to the last drop of nemo's blood

[10:47] {RonS} ...better than being Mr. Trend Chart Guy...

01[10:48] {@Threei}  that's... so gay

01[10:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break

01[10:50] {@Threei}  wow... fast

[10:50] {nemo} IWM kisses the 200 and market drops

01[10:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 

01[10:51] {@Threei}  no go CMCSA

[10:51] {nemo} Nemo's senior citizen chauffer service is signing off for now

[10:52] {RonS} nemo = Mr cab driver guy...

01[10:54] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:1

01[10:54] {@Threei}  sigh

01[11:02] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .43 break

01[11:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .50 

01[11:12] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

01[11:18] {@Threei}  there has to be a top in this...

[11:25] {dino} out lci .52 +.54

01[11:25] {@Threei}  wtg

[11:25] {dino} ty

01[11:26] {@Threei}  one more bounce, double top, and hopefully we get our short

01[11:26] {@Threei}  in VXX terns, that would be a pullback under .10 and buy on recross

01[11:30] {@Threei}  "As of 11 o'clock today, about 45,000 troops of the armed forces and internal forces of the Russian Federation are concentrated in border areas," Lysenko told a briefing.

01[11:30] {@Threei}  He said they were supported by 160 tanks, 1,360 armoured vehicles, 390 artillery systems, up to 150 Grad missile launchers, 192 fighter aircraft and 137 attack helicopters.

01[11:31] {@Threei}  yup, de-escalation at its finest

01[11:38] {@Threei}  anyone caught VXX on pullback?

01[11:39] {@Threei}  11:34, exact setup I was talking about

[11:40] {RonS} yep, too fast, missed

[11:47] {ese} it'll only be 96 fighter aircraft.......rebels will shoot down half

[11:47] {RonS} wow

[11:47] {RonS} ese right on top of it...

[11:47] {ese} indeed

[11:47] {RonS} rebels are russian

[11:49] {ese} now that they've had practise shooting down civilian aircraft there ready for the faster stuff

[11:50] {RonS} Cowboy: "Give me 3 packets of condoms, please."

[11:50] {RonS}  Cashier: "Do you need a paper bag with that, sir?"

[11:50] {RonS}  Cowboy: "Nah... She's purty good lookin'....."

[11:53] {ese} rotflol

01[11:54] {@Threei}  lol

[11:54] {dino} lol

01[11:58] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .25 break

01[11:58] {@Threei}  If holds  .15 

01[12:02] {@Threei}  1:1  

[12:46] {RonS} nemo out on the town?  I was talking to a girl in the bar last night. She said, "If you lost a few

[12:46] {RonS}  pounds, had a shave and got your hair cut, you'd look all right."

[12:46] {RonS}  I said, "If I did that, I'd be talking to your friends over there instead of

[12:46] {RonS}  you."

01[12:47] {@Threei}  I can hear the slap

[12:47] {RonS} nemo's pickup line?  I was telling a girl in the pub about my ability to guess what day a woman

[12:47] {RonS}  was born just by feeling her boobs.

[12:47] {RonS}  "Really" she said, "Go on then...try."

[12:47] {RonS}  After about thirty seconds of fondling she began to lose patience and said,

[12:47] {RonS}  "Come on, what day was I born?"

[12:47] {RonS}  I said, "Yesterday."

[12:48] {RonS} after the night out?  I got caught taking a pee in the swimming pool today.

[12:48] {RonS}  The lifeguard shouted at me so loud, I nearly fell in.

01[12:48] {@Threei}  oh boy

01[12:48] {@Threei}  lol

01[13:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break

01[13:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .30 

[13:29] {nemo} I've got support between .25-.28

[13:32] {dino} gut says markets continue up

[13:34] {nemo} I see it got real quiet

[13:35] {RonS} ese's prediction the rebels to shoot down Russian fighters?

01[13:36] {@Threei}  actually, one version floating around is that the real target was Russian plane

01[13:36] {@Threei}  to put it on Ukrainian govt forces and use as pretext for invasion

[13:51] {nemo} well, you can move your stop up

01[13:54] {@Threei}  1:2  

[13:55] {nemo} stop to .38

[13:55] {nemo} spy fas testing the gap

01[13:55] {@Threei}  .49 for me

01[13:56] {@Threei}  1:3  

[13:56] {nemo} ycan move it to .58 now below vwap

[13:56] {nemo} just to argue with you of course

[13:56] {nemo} do I hear a "Pizdah"?

01[13:56] {@Threei}  of course

01[13:56] {@Threei}  and yes

[13:57] {nemo} I think I really like razpizdiyi

[13:58] {goinshort} out vxx thanks

01[13:59] {@Threei}  :)

[13:59] {nemo} that .58 stop looking good

[14:00] {dino} gj

01[14:00] {@Threei}  1:4

[14:00] {nemo} yep...I'm sporting wood

[14:01] {RonS} out .80 +.39 full lot +.30 thanks 3i

[14:01] {RonS} .39

01[14:01] {@Threei}  yw

[14:01] {nemo} Guess I'll have to do my duty at booknight tonight

01[14:01] {@Threei}  out here too

[14:01] {RonS} you too nemo

[14:02] {nemo} what?

[14:02] {RonS} for talking stops etc...comfort level to hold et al

[14:02] {nemo} oh, your welcome

[14:02] {nemo} you're

[14:03] {nemo} finnies and spy testing the lows

[14:03] {RonS} now i feel bad about the jokes earlier...

[14:03] {RonS} :)

[14:03] {nemo} Mmmhhh...maybe I should ask UPS not to deliver the package to you Ron

[14:04] {nemo} nevermind the ticking sound

[14:04] {nemo} stop to .68

[14:06] {nemo} IWM looking possibly long

[14:06] {nemo} .40 break

[14:07] {nemo} sayonara vxx

[14:07] {nemo} IWM first target .55 ish

[14:08] {nemo} guess it depends on the width of the hair

[14:08] {nemo} touches .49 stop should be to just under entry

[14:08] {nemo} IMO

[14:08] {nemo} and we know what that's worth

[14:10] {nemo} and of course vxx holds vwap

[14:10] {nemo} stop is breakeven on IWM

[14:14] {nemo} not being able to get through .50 is pretty bearish

[14:15] {nemo} shoulda' woulda' kept my .58 stop on vxx

01[15:02] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .80 break

01[15:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[15:08] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

[15:15] {dino} took all day, but out data .53, +.41

01[15:17] {@Threei}  nice

[15:21] {dino} ty

[15:40] {dino} calling it a day, gn all

01[15:41] {@Threei}  take care dino

01[15:41] {@Threei}  can't see a confident play for the close, everything is 50/50

01[15:46] {@Threei}  VXX was last scalp... oh well

01[15:46] {@Threei}  thank you all, jave a good evening

01[15:46] {@Threei}  see you tomorrowq

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Ebola, Rockets and Tanks, Oh My

- Geopolitical events dominated the conversation again this week, as turmoil in Israel, Ukraine, Iraq, and West Africa provided plenty of dramatic, market-moving headlines. In the meantime, negative Italian Q2 GDP and worrying German industrial data cast a shadow over Europe, while the Nikkei fell 5% on the week thanks to weaker-than-expected July numbers. Most of the June quarter corporate earnings reports are in the can, leaving just a few retailers and some big tech names to report next week. At the end of a volatile week, the DJIA ended up 0.4%, the S&P500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq tacked on 0.4%.

- The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has become very serious this week, and the World Health Organization has declared it a major public health risk requiring a coordinated global response. The disease has begun to appear in Nigeria, where the government declared a state of emergency, and there are concerns it could spread beyond Africa. Cases of people with Ebola-like symptoms have been reported in the US, Europe and Saudi Arabia, but no cases have been conclusively proved. Shares of Canadian biotech Tekmira have gained another 40% this week after the FDA partially lifted its clinical hold on the firm's experimental anti-Ebola viral therapeutic. Biocryst, which is also working on a treatment for Ebola, is up 15% on the week.

- In the first half of the week, there were mounting fears that Russia was moving closer to invading Ukraine after authorities in Kiev and NATO figures said Moscow had built its forces back up to around 20,000 troops (plus the 20,000 troops stationed in Crimea). The thought was that Moscow would introduce troops under the guise of a "humanitarian mission" after many armored units were seen with "peacekeeping" markings painted on their vehicles. However on Friday there were sudden signs of fresh de-escalation as the chairman of the Russia Security Council said his country would like to find ways to "de-escalate the Ukraine situation" and Moscow ended scheduled military drills and stated that air and air defense units have been ordered back to their home bases. Nevertheless, the political battle of wills continues and Russia imposed countersanctions on the West, banning a broad range of food imports.

- Within a few hours of each other, two huge M&A deals fell apart this week, while a third was altered to remove a tax inversion component following strong political pushback. 21st Century Fox abandoned its $80 billion offer to acquire Time Warner, citing hostility to the deal at Time Warner and reluctance to overpay. Sprint abandoned attempts to reach a deal to acquire T-Mobile, costing CEO Dan Hesse his job. Walgreen said it would go ahead with buying up the rest of Alliance Boots it does not already own but abandoned plans to move its tax address abroad.

- Media names CBS and Disney both saw very solid quarterly reports that topped expectations. Disney reported strong Q2 revenue growth, although the results were not quite as good as results seen in Q1. News Corp disclosed a mixed set of Q4 results, missing the consensus EPS estimate for the first time four quarters but beating on revenue. Revenue and earnings sagged on a y/y basis.

- Shares of luxury goods names Coach and Michael Kors were closely watched after quarterly reports. Kors widely beat top- and bottom-line expectations, saw a 24% gain in comps and raised its FY15 outlook. But on the conference call, executives warned that margins would suffer going forward due to increased markdowns and disclosed a big increase in inventories. Coach also topped earnings and revenue expectations, with the international business strong and Chinese comps up by double digits, even as North America comps sagged.

- Solar names soared on very good results out of solar power installer SunEdison, which reported decent profits (beating expectations for a big loss) and revenue swelled 61% y/y. SunEdison said it completed more projects in the quarter than it had expected, goosing results higher. Earlier in the week First Solar had widely missed expectations and saw earnings and revenue sag on a y/y basis, although SUNE's 15% post-earnings gain helped pull FSLR up nearly 10% on the week.

- The Fed cleared Bank of America's resubmitted capital plan. Recall that back in April, the Fed directed the company to resubmit its CCAR application after it emerged that the bank had incorrectly reported data used in the calculation of regulatory capital ratios. The Fed approval allows BoA to go ahead with its plan to boost its dividend to $0.05 per share from $0.01 per share.

- The ECB left its policies unchanged at the August meeting. While acknowledging ultra-low inflation and slowing economic prospects, ECB President Draghi continued to affirm his confidence that the ECB's June measures would ultimately push prices and growth higher over the medium term. During the press conference, Draghi pushed back against criticism that the ECB is not doing enough by further detailing the TLTRO program, asserting it will disburse up to €450-850B to the real economy. On Ukraine, Draghi warned the conflict had the real potential to negatively impact the Eurozone.

- Italy's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, deepening fears that a wider economic slowdown is under way in Europe. Italy GDP was -0.2% q/q and -0.3% y/y, after a final Q1 GDP reading of -0.1% q/q and -0.5% y/y , marking a rare triple dip recession. Germany, France and the Eurozone report initial Q2 GDP figures next Thursday. There are real concerns about the German data after Germany reported June factory orders -2.4% y/y on Wednesday and June industrial production -0.5% on Thursday, after which the two-year bund yield fell below zero for the first time since May 2013 and the 10-year bund yield fell to an all-time low below 1.07%. EUR/USD hit nine-month lows below 1.3340.

- In Japan, the strengthening yen and disappointing July economic figures sent the Nikkei225 down by nearly 5% this week. Despite speculation of a rift in the policy board, the BoJ's latest statement retained its unanimous stance on key policy settings even as the assessment of exports and industrial output were downgraded, as both have "shown some weakness." The BoJ still cheered improvement in employment and income situation along with some signs that consumption tax headwinds are starting to abate. Government bond yields in Tokyo have plunged to new lows, with the 10-year falling to a 16-month low of 0.5%.

- After two straight weeks of strong gains, the Shanghai Composite was down 0.3% this week, a modest decline against the backdrop of volatility in the emerging markets. A very strong set of China trade data helped restore markets on Friday. July's $47B surplus was the biggest on record, and even though imports fell, a 14% rise in exports more than made up for that decline. Shipments to Europe were particularly strong, up about 17% y/y, while exports to Japan reversed last month's drop with a 3% increase. The stream of economic data from China continues with the release of July inflation figures late on Friday.

TradeTheNews

Aug 08 2014

About flat day - two 1:3ers, some scalps, some stops, trading punches. Good week overall so no complaints.

Session Time: Fri Aug 08 00:00:00 2014
[09:11] {troub} good morning
01[09:11] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:12] {@Threei}  TKMR
[09:12] {RonS} gm...BREAKING: U.S. military aircraft strike Islamic State artillery, Pentagon says
01[09:12] {@Threei}  Ron :)
01[09:14] {@Threei}  decent SPY premarket volume
[09:15] {nemo} very decent
[09:15] {nemo} was 1.3 million at 7:30
[09:15] {nemo} a.m. EDT
01[09:18] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -TKMR +18% (momentum from Ebola as WHO names the outbreak 'extraordinary' event)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -MELI +15% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -ANET +9.8% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -NOG +6.4% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -UBNT +5.5% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -MNST +4.8% (earnings)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -GPS +4.5% (earnings, guides higher than estimates)
01[09:18] {@Threei}  -BCRX +4.1% (Ebola momentum)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ELX +4% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -NVDA +3.7% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -LULU +3.5% (stock sale to Advent, removes hostile takeover & proxy fight potential)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -HIBB -11% (earnings)
01[09:19] {@Threei}  -ZNGA -7.1% (earnings)
[09:20] {nemo} http://goo.gl/eejQYA
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .10 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  too fast
01[09:32] {@Threei}  valid again, if holds 43
01[09:34] {@Threei}  FB is not helping
01[09:35] {@Threei}  nah
01[09:36] {@Threei}  .l vxx .70 break
01[09:36] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .70 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:37] {nemo} VXX should be a good afternoon play
01[09:38] {@Threei}  hmmm
01[09:38] {@Threei}  second morning in a row og non-behaving plays
[09:39] {nemo} we're in August, should almost wait out the first 15 minutes or so
01[09:41] {@Threei}  rinse
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .75 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[09:44] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WMT  .90 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
[09:47] {dino} adding vxx puts
[09:47] {nemo} VXX should close higher today with all the geopolitical and market uncertainty
[09:47] {dino} understood
[09:48] {nemo} just my opinion and we know what that is worth
[09:48] {nemo} I usually have to pay people to get them to listen to it
[09:48] {dino} feye hl l .28 stop .98
[09:49] {nemo} MNST dino
01[09:51] {@Threei}  half out
01[09:51] {@Threei}  stop to .89
01[09:51] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:52] {@Threei}  1/4 more out
01[09:53] {@Threei}  stop .94
[09:54] {dino} cnc sm l .50
01[09:55] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:55] {@Threei}  to .99
[09:55] {dino} post pounded
[09:57] {nemo} resorting to Ronisms dino?
[09:58] {dino} ;-)
[09:58] {nemo} you're on a de-evolutionary spiral
01[10:00] {@Threei}  hmmm... and here I am, dreaming of ascending to Ronisms
[10:01] {dino} perhaps
[10:02] {nemo} see Les below?
[10:02] {RonS} lol
06[10:02] * @Threei returns to the usual "tree good, fire bad"
[10:03] {nemo} vodka great
[10:03] {nemo} mmmhhh...Jack is calling to me
01[10:03] {@Threei}  don't pick up
[10:03] {nemo} why?
01[10:04] {@Threei}  scientists established that after first bottle you start speaking russian, and after second invade neighbouring country
01[10:05] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:05] {@Threei}  out +.30
01[10:05] {@Threei}  finally normal play that behaves as it should
[10:05] {dino} gj
01[10:06] {@Threei}  ty
01[10:06] {@Threei}  not too bad for 5 cents risk
01[10:08] {@Threei}  so, in Russia to connect to public Wi-Fi in cafes, parks etc, now you are going to have to enter your passport information
[10:14] {flash} gm, new on 7 day trial. am I in the right screen for trades, thanks
[10:14] {dino} yes
[10:15] {flash} ty
01[10:15] {@Threei}  morning flash
[10:15] {flash} morning tgif
[10:16] {nemo} wait...don't we have to do a cavity search before he can come in?
[10:16] {flash} haha
01[10:16] {@Threei}  no, not on fridays
[10:16] {nemo} you never let me have any fun
01[10:17] {@Threei}  need a hug?
[10:17] {nemo} need to puke
01[10:17] {@Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .30 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:17] {nemo} if I need a hug I find bunny
[10:17] {nemo} MON looks weak
01[10:17] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:21] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  35 break
01[10:21] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:22] {@Threei}  no go
[10:22] {nemo} so choppy support resistance
01[10:23] {@Threei}  sheesh... rinse
01[10:23] {@Threei}  gotta wait for a stop to get hit, then enter
01[10:25] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .85 break
01[10:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .95
[10:26] {nemo} gonna' go up and test vwap likely
01[10:26] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[10:27] {RonS} hgr sm l .20
[10:27] {nemo} now short FB below .90
01[10:29] {@Threei}  FB looks two-sided to me
[10:30] {nemo} spy testing other side of range, if it gets through, should follow
[10:30] {nemo} never got below .90
01[10:32] {@Threei}  long side works
01[10:32] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:32] {nemo} yeah spy didn't continue either
01[10:34] {@Threei}  [APC] APC Hearing renewed takeover chatter circulating - Exxon rumored as a potential acquirer
[10:36] {dino} mnst sm s .60
01[10:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  LULU  40 break hl
01[10:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:41] {@Threei}  a lot of shares for sale at 40
[10:45] {flash} is there a setting for a sound when you post trades?
01[10:45] {@Threei}  if you use mirc, yes
01[10:45] {@Threei}  in mibbit, no, it's a temporary solution
01[10:45] {@Threei}  change LULU to .90 break
01[10:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
[10:46] {nemo} looks like above 192 for stops coming
01[10:46] {@Threei}  that was fast
[10:48] {flash} gotta run some errands. be back . trade green friends!
01[10:49] {@Threei}  ty
[10:54] {dino} ty for idea nemo, cov mnst .22, +.28
[10:54] {dino} +.38
01[10:55] {@Threei}  wtg
01[10:58] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:12] {RonS} looloo
01[11:14] {@Threei}  1:3
01[11:14] {@Threei}  out
01[11:14] {@Threei}  I will have to try:
01[11:14] {@Threei}  we saw right through LULU
[11:15] {RonS} lol...nice...
01[11:15] {@Threei}  did I succeed in ascension aspirations?
[11:17] {RonS} when nemo groans you are there...
01[11:18] {@Threei}  nemo?
[11:18] {nemo} ?
01[11:18] {@Threei}  lift your eyes up by a few lines
[11:19] {nemo} ?
[11:19] {nemo} hey dino, look at Post
[11:21] {nemo} POST
[11:27] {dino} missed that
[11:40] {RonS} Breaking: Obama launches airstrikes from USS George H. W. Bush against ISIS so he can blame Bush if it all goes wrong
01[11:41] {@Threei}  lol
[11:42] {dino} lol
01[12:03] {@Threei}  matter of urgent priorities:
01[12:03] {@Threei}  (US) State AGs urge FDA to ban flavored e-cigarettes
[12:03] {nemo} VXX might be long here
01[12:03] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .90 break
01[12:03] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[12:07] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[12:15] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:15] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[12:16] {nemo} lower lows on spy and IWM
[12:16] {nemo} could short here with a .15 stop
01[12:17] {@Threei}  FB two-sided
01[12:21] {@Threei}  long it is
01[12:26] {@Threei}  and working it isn't
[12:26] {nemo} spy short is
[12:27] {nemo} target .60ish
[12:28] {nemo} stop .88
[12:32] {dino} cnc to .90
01[12:33] {@Threei} Short Setup: JPM  56 break
01[12:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:34] {@Threei}  with trail to .06 around .95
[12:34] {nemo} very possible bounce @.95 with resistance @ .05
[12:36] {nemo} Politicians never accuse you of 'greed' for wanting other people's money --- only for wanting to keep your own money. - Joseph Sobran
01[12:37] {@Threei}  sounds about right
[12:37] {dino} how true
[12:38] {nemo} stop to .82
[12:38] {nemo} had buy @ .62 didn't get hit
[12:42] {dino} athm sm l .00
[12:43] {nemo} VXX coming in
[12:44] {nemo} fingertips
[12:44] {nemo} nails ripping away
[12:44] {nemo} bloody
[12:45] {nemo} took half
[12:46] {nemo}  so, go from almost making .28 to .10 sounds about right
[12:47] {nemo} VXX recovering
[12:47] {nemo} this should be o.k. now
[12:49] {nemo} VXX play shaping up
01[12:55] {@Threei}  let's trail stop to .06
[13:10] {goinshort} afternoon everyone!
[13:11] {dino} out athm .45, +.45
[13:11] {dino} ga gs
01[13:13] {@Threei}  gs :)
01[13:16] {@Threei}  (IQ) White House: When Iraq completes the formation of an 'inclusive' Govt; the US will provide more military support to help fight the ISIS as needed (ISIL) - Notes the US could conduct further targeted strikes in Iraq
01[13:16] {@Threei}  (NG) Nigeria declares state of emergency due to Ebola outbreak - press
01[13:17] {@Threei}  one of these made market happy
01[13:17] {@Threei}  you choose
[13:18] {dino} don't know wht either would
[13:18] {dino} why
[13:18] {dino} cnc to .00
01[13:19] {@Threei}  kidding... it's this:
01[13:19] {@Threei}  (UR) Russia Defense Ministry: "Military exercises" along the Ukraine border have been concluded
01[13:19] {@Threei}  idiots still believe it means something
[13:19] {dino} indeed
[13:19] {dino} but do we believe it
01[13:19] {@Threei}  absolutely not
[13:19] {nemo} we'll run now
01[13:20] {@Threei}  - The ruble, the RSX and various Russian stocks surged this morning after Russia Security Council Chief Patrushev stated Russia would like to find ways to "de-escalate the Ukraine situation." Patrushev told RIA Novosti that Russia is prepared to mediate talks between Kiev and eastern Ukraine separatists. After the DNR separatists replaced a Russian leader with an ethnic Ukrainian, there was speculation that Russia was again trying to back away from the brink.
01[13:20] {@Threei}  in reality, it's merely a game of seeking best timing and pretext
01[13:21] {@Threei}  pretend you don't want it, whole organizing provocation that would put you in position "see, we told you they were fascists, you didn't believe is, now we have to go in"
01[13:21] {@Threei}  whole = while
[13:22] {dino} asps spike
[13:22] {dino} out cnc ave .18, +.68
[13:23] {dino} scty bloody dark
[13:26] {RonS} gj
[13:27] {nemo} most of the puts this week are 194
[13:27] {RonS} get this...closing I25, the main no/so interstate 10pm tonight until 5 a.m. Monday at an intersection w/ another east/west freeway
[13:27] {dino} why?
[13:28] {RonS} right at city center...must carry 200-300k vehicles on weekends
[13:28] {RonS} improving the intersection...saying 100 guys going to do a month's work in that time...
01[13:29] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .60 break
01[13:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[13:30] {@Threei}  touched 1:1 briefly, stop to .54
01[13:31] {@Threei}  half out
01[13:31] {@Threei}  to .59
[13:34] {goinshort} out -thanks V!
01[13:35] {@Threei}  yw
[13:41] {nemo} stop hunt to 193.25 possible
[13:43] {goinshort} out 1:1 VXX short
[13:45] {dino} out vxx puts from earlier, +.43/13%
01[13:45] {@Threei}  nice
[13:45] {dino} ty
01[13:46] {@Threei}  dino knew russians would put that smokescreen today
[13:46] {dino} was talk about it on cnbc early morning, so i took a shot
01[14:01] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[14:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
01[14:02] {@Threei}  change to .45 break
01[14:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .35
01[14:04] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[14:04] {nemo} bounce between .20-.30
[14:18] {nemo} VXX
01[14:28] {@Threei}  ok... the end of this move should be somewhere
01[14:28] {@Threei}  or not?
01[14:29] {@Threei}  one more shake, gotta wait it out
01[14:29] {@Threei}  then look for a solid entry
[14:29] {nemo} .20
[14:29] {nemo} spy likely to go to 193.20ish first
[14:31] {RonS} out hgr 22.45 +1.25
01[14:32] {@Threei}  wtg
01[14:33] {@Threei}  here comes my shake
[14:34] {nemo} spy going for the stops
01[14:35] {@Threei}  yup
[14:35] {nemo} look at spy on 15min
01[14:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .45 break
01[14:48] {@Threei}  If holds  ,35
01[14:56] {@Threei}  ok
01[14:56] {@Threei}  this does look like real reversal
01[14:56] {@Threei}  lose .80 and die, SPY
01[14:59] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:22] {@Threei}  that was all, eh
01[15:25] {@Threei}  no fear whatsoever
01[15:25] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .35 break
01[15:25] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[15:31] {nemo} spy stops taken
01[15:31] {@Threei}  yes
01[15:31] {@Threei}  come on IWM, take .40
[15:32] {nemo} could come in now
01[15:32] {@Threei}  and fly
01[15:32] {@Threei}  wow... block below
[15:32] {nemo} what IWM
[15:32] {nemo} watching vxx
01[15:32] {@Threei}  yes
[15:35] {nemo} so, above 193 or below?
01[15:36] {@Threei}  above
[15:37] {nemo} and if there is happy news over the weekend about Russia, we open above 194
[15:41] {dino} took all day, but out feye .48, +.20
[15:42] {RonS} better than getting feyeded...
01[15:42] {@Threei}  lol
[15:43] {RonS} some calling Putin the greatest day trader ever...
[15:43] {dino} lol
01[15:44] {@Threei}  difficult to disagree
01[15:44] {@Threei}  buy - announce troops pullout
01[15:44] {@Threei}  sell - short - announce troops amassing
[15:46] {RonS} good weekend to all...outta here
01[15:47] {@Threei}  I suggest instituting a rule - said goodbye, stay for 3 min to hear the response
[15:49] {dino} calling it a day, gn
01[15:49] {@Threei}  take care dino
01[15:49] {@Threei}  ok guys, scratching IWM
01[15:49] {@Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday
01[15:49] {@Threei}  out .36
[16:07] {troub} good weekend all.

Aug 07 2014

Not our day even though we did a lot to repair initial stops. Remedied most of the loss, finished one good trade away from getting in black.

Session Time: Thu Aug 07 00:00:00 2014
01[09:07] {@Threei}  (IQ) France calls emergency meeting of UN Security Council to discuss situation in Iraq
01[09:08] {@Threei}  dino, missed a few very good days actually
01[09:09] {@Threei}  despote it being august
01[09:09] {@Threei}  o=i
[09:10] {RonS} gm...3i been on fire
01[09:11] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {dino} figured as much. good to be back
01[09:12] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -SAAS +17% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -HZNP +15% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -CST +14% (announced acquisition General Partner of Lehigh Gas Partners LP)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -MCP +14% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -THOR -26% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -BWC -10% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -RNDY -9.2% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -ANN -8.5% (lower SSS & Rev guidance than estimated)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -SD -6.6% (earnings)
01[09:22] {@Threei}  -MPEL -5.5% (earnings/weighing on other Macau related names)
[09:25] {troub} good morning
01[09:25] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:26] {@Threei}  man, you were so right about leaving to miss best trades...
01[09:26] {@Threei}  1:5 VXX, easy to execute, and over in 8 minutes
[09:27] {troub} maybe should try assumed name.  maybe nemo2
[09:27] {nemo} great...frickin' stalkers now
01[09:28] {@Threei}  just be omen
[09:28] {nemo} got my attack bunny to protect me
01[09:28] {@Threei}  want to sic him on ese?
[09:28] {nemo} WAG
[09:28] {nemo} yeah, gnaw off his fingers so he can't drum
[09:29] {nemo} that rabbit has teeth I'll tell ya'
[09:29] {nemo} when she yawns it's a scary sight
01[09:30] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break hl
01[09:30] {@Threei}  If holds  73
01[09:30] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  WAG  60 break hl
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[09:35] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:35] {@Threei}  for now
01[09:37] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  73 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:37] {@Threei}  wow... third invalidation
[09:37] {nemo} WAG long off .50
[09:39] {RonS} better than third ugh...
01[09:39] {@Threei}  lol, yes
01[09:43] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[09:46] {@Threei}  no go
01[09:47] {@Threei}  rinse
01[09:48] {@Threei}  nervous trading this morning, gotta switch to pullbacks
[09:48] {nemo} no buying anywhere
01[09:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[09:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:50] {@Threei}  grrr
01[10:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .80 break hl
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[10:04] {@Threei}  what the deuce today
[10:04] {nemo} indecision
[10:04] {nemo} chop chop chop
[10:04] {nemo} no breakout breakdown plays
[10:04] {nemo} IMO
[10:04] {nemo} and we know what that is worth
01[10:06] {@Threei}  another rinse
01[10:06] {@Threei}  sheesh
[10:09] {nemo} almost nothing on the algo, slightly more red, no momentum whatsoever out there
[10:14] {dino} athm sm l .75
[10:17] {RonS} nemo the cat?  pic.twitter.com/t0FmIQV8wn
01[10:17] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[10:17] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[10:18] {@Threei}  this just has to work, or I am going to a monastery
[10:18] {nemo} no
[10:18] {nemo} you're going to the IRon Maiden
01[10:18] {@Threei}  lol ron
[10:20] {nemo} Funny, guy walking his dog today on a leas
[10:20] {nemo} leash
[10:20] {nemo} about 40 feet behind him I see this cat  walking
[10:21] {nemo} guy walks on I kinda' call to the cat, it kinda' comes over
[10:21] {nemo} guy continues walking
01[10:21] {@Threei}  monastery it is
[10:21] {nemo} he gets about 50 yards away and turns around
[10:21] {nemo} calls to the cat
[10:21] {nemo} cat comes running
[10:21] {nemo} The cat walks with him when he walks the dog
[10:21] {nemo} funny sight
01[10:22] {@Threei}  cat thinks they walk the dog together
[10:23] {dino} sni drop
[10:24] {RonS} exel l 4.15
01[10:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  103 break
01[10:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:36] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:36] {@Threei}  even blind squirrell...
01[10:36] {@Threei}  can fell the oak once in a while
01[10:38] {@Threei}  from this remark, try to determine what business company's in:
01[10:38] {@Threei}  Fienberg: Since the claims process started in the last week, we have processed 115 claims, about half of them are death claims, the others are for bodily injuries
[10:40] {dino} life
01[10:44] {@Threei}  that's GM
01[10:45] {@Threei}  no news for this sudden slloff
[10:45] {nemo} nobody bought the indexes up so they sold a bit
01[10:46] {@Threei}  say, if market spiked, would you modify that to "nobody sold, so.."?
[10:46] {nemo} my point, no continued upward momentum in a downtrend, so buying stopped
01[10:46] {@Threei}  if answer is yes, you are ready for analyst job
[10:47] {nemo} indexes couldn't break the range overhead, go to theo other side in the chop
01[10:47] {@Threei}  dino... nemo goes "added value camp" on us
[10:48] {dino} lol
01[11:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[11:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
[11:01] {RonS} hearing Putin presser coming 12:30
01[11:02] {@Threei}  I doubt he announces his resignation
01[11:02] {@Threei}  change to .70 break
01[11:02] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[11:04] {@Threei}  hmmmm... I just found out why nemo would never survive in Victoria, probably no longer than a day or two
[11:04] {nemo} people are too nice?
01[11:04] {@Threei}  Victoria is found to be third friendliest city in the world, and friendliest in NA
01[11:05] {@Threei}  I think you'd just suffocate here
01[11:05] {@Threei}  although... there is ese... you could just take it out on him
01[11:05] {@Threei}  Invalidated  IWM
[11:06] {RonS} where is ese anyway?
[11:06] {nemo} molesting students
01[11:08] {@Threei}  should be around... haven't alerted me of any time off
01[11:08] {@Threei}  strike is still on
01[11:11] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[11:11] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:13] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[11:16] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .40 break
01[11:16] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[11:17] {@Threei}  this time should trigger
01[11:18] {@Threei}  and run
01[11:18] {@Threei}  fly
01[11:18] {@Threei}  to the moon alice
01[11:20] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:20] {@Threei}  that's not moon yet, don't stop
01[11:21] {@Threei}  .80 is moon
01[11:26] {@Threei}  oh well
01[11:26] {@Threei}  that was all she had
[11:41] {RonS} Mexico passes final rules to open oil industry to private firms: http://bloom.bg/1pcJwCj
01[11:42] {@Threei}  oil is so dead
[11:43] {RonS} ?
01[11:44] {@Threei}  price wise
01[11:44] {@Threei}  downward pressure is inevitable
01[11:45] {@Threei}  from many factors, including the repetition of Reagan's manoeuvre to strip Russia of financial footing
[11:48] {nemo} Mexico been talking that way for awhile
[11:48] {nemo} Their oil industry is a bureaucratic dumping ground
[11:48] {RonS} ya, but now it's done...
[11:48] {nemo} their production has been falling for years
[11:49] {RonS} yep...need to suck in a lot of investment so they can nationalize it again in 10 years...
[11:49] {nemo} yeah and BOHICA the investors
[11:52] {nemo} on oil...frickin' refiners have cut production to keep gas prices up
[11:58] {RonS} Putin to address Russian nation in a speech described as emergency
01[12:03] {@Threei}  I think it will be a talk about mutual sanctions
01[12:04] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break
01[12:04] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[12:04] {@Threei}  market drops as if expects war announcement
01[12:04] {@Threei}  won't happen yet
01[12:16] {@Threei}  (IQ) Obama Administration is reportedly mulling possible military airstrikes on ISIS/Islamic State positions in northern Iraq -
01[12:19] {@Threei}  no go
01[12:35] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .25 break
01[12:35] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[12:36] {@Threei}  1:1
01[12:36] {@Threei}  1:2
01[12:38] {@Threei}  finally something decent
01[12:38] {@Threei}  doesn't make day positive but takes some sting off
01[12:55] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .30 break
01[12:55] {@Threei}  If holds  .20
01[13:03] {@Threei}  come on SPY, go to .60
01[13:03] {@Threei}  which should push IWM to .50
01[13:03] {@Threei}  then we will see about more
[13:03] {nemo} watch for spy short setup there
01[13:03] {@Threei}  no way
[13:03] {nemo} .50 actually
01[13:04] {@Threei}  it wants .80
[13:04] {nemo} went for the stops below yesterday
[13:04] {nemo} s low
[13:04] {nemo} it it's still weak, it'll stop here
01[13:05] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:14] {@Threei}  SPY behaves, IWM lags
01[13:22] {@Threei}  just a scalp again
01[13:32] {@Threei}  now it goes
01[14:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .75 break
01[14:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .65
01[14:16] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:17] {@Threei}  1:2
[14:21] {dino} gj
01[14:22] {@Threei}  ty
01[14:23] {@Threei}  slowly digging out of morning hole
[14:24] {dino} benn there
01[14:25] {@Threei}  anyone claiming he hasn't is a liar or never traded :)
[14:25] {nemo} I'm from Crete
[14:26] {nemo} WAG
01[14:26] {@Threei}  1:3
01[14:26] {@Threei}  done
01[14:26] {@Threei}  one more like this and we'll be back in black
01[14:35] {@Threei}  wow
01[14:35] {@Threei}  underestimated
[14:36] {RonS} wow, have never seen it so dark during the day here...solar lights are on in the yard...epic thunderstorm...dangerous because you cannot see if there is a funnel
[14:37] {RonS} oh no, now hailing
[14:37] {RonS} wife is at the daughters
[14:37] {RonS} sounds like am in a shooting gallery
01[14:38] {@Threei}  wow
[14:40] {RonS} gutters in total overflow
[14:41] {RonS} some hail quarter sized
[14:48] {RonS} hail gone, rain to shower...moved to pound the east...Little Dry Creek (next to house) went from nothing to 4' across
01[14:49] {@Threei}  quite disturbance, lol
[14:49] {RonS} ...that's Colorado..."if you don't like the weather just wait 5 minutes"
[14:50] {RonS} hope the wife was not on the road...
01[15:10] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[15:10] {@Threei}  If holds  111
[15:15] {nemo} spy in the gap to .35
01[15:16] {@Threei}  nah
[15:27] {dino} another 80 pts april gap fill dji
01[15:46] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:46] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Aug 06 2014

1:5 in 8 minutes - not your every day's trade. VXX in all its glory. Love bearish moves

Very nice profitable day again.

Session Time: Wed Aug 06 00:00:00 2014

[09:12] {RonS} gm...wag the dog
01[09:13] {@Threei}  morning ron
01[09:15] {@Threei}  that was a good movie
01[09:15] {@Threei}  but why the reference? :)
[09:23] {troub} good morning
01[09:23] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:24] {@Threei}  Italy enters back into a technical recession; other EU data releases disappoint
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ENPH +21% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FOX +5.5% (withdrawal of bid for TWX)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -DRYS +4.4% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -SGMS +4.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -ATVI +3.3% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -JAZZ +2.7% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CYTX -31% (ATHENA & ATHENA II trials put on clinical hold)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -FUEL -30% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -GMED -18% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -WAG -16% (announcement of Alliance Boots option action, initial FY16 guidance)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -S -16% (dropped bid for TMUS)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -CTSH -15% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -NUS -14% (earnings)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  -TWX -13% (withdrawal of FOX acquisition bid)
01[09:25] {@Threei}  gosh... now I dot it Ron, nevermind
01[09:26] {@Threei}  got
01[09:26] {@Threei}  -CTSH (-13% earnings)
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  72 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .20 break
01[09:34] {@Threei}  hl
01[09:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:36] {@Threei}  stop to .14
01[09:38] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .40 break
01[09:38] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:41] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:42] {@Threei}  meh SALE
01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .20 break
01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:49] {@Threei}  1:3  TWTR  close enough
01[09:49] {@Threei}  out
01[09:53] {@Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .90 break
01[09:53] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:08] {@Threei}  P Tickes higher once again on renewed takeover chatter
01[10:10] {@Threei}  NUS.... sheesh
01[10:10] {@Threei}  dino will cry tomorrow
01[10:13] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FUEL  18 break hl
01[10:13] {@Threei}  If holds  .85
01[10:19] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:27] {@Threei}  1 cent from 1:2, uh
[10:30] {RonS} +1210 tick
01[10:31] {@Threei}  nice breadth
01[10:48] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 brea
01[10:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[10:51] {@Threei}  no go
[11:06] {RonS} Sanctions against Russia accelerate global shift away from U.S. dollar: http://bloom.bg/1ATQjW8
01[11:14] {@Threei}  strange
01[11:14] {@Threei}  should be other way around
[11:14] {nemo} forcing trade in other directions, banking restrictions will limit use of dollar.  Russia will have to trade in other currencies
01[11:16] {@Threei}  war tensions tend to send haven-seekers to the currency safe from turbulence
[11:17] {nemo} yeah, but Russia needs to seek trade and can't trade completely in $...so what do you trade in?
01[11:17] {@Threei}  what did it do in cord war ear?
[11:18] {nemo} you were there, I wasn't
01[11:19] {@Threei}  but you were here - how did russia isolation impact dollar?
[11:19] {nemo} it didn't but it was a very different world back then
[11:19] {nemo} the $ was undisputed king
01[11:20] {@Threei}  this makes little sense to me
01[11:21] {@Threei}  look at this same article:
01[11:21] {@Threei}  One place the shift has become evident is Hong Kong, where dollar selling has led the central bank to buy more than $9.5 billion since July 1 to prevent its currency from rallying as the sanctions stoked speculation of an influx of Russian cash.
01[11:21] {@Threei}  see what I mean?
[11:21] {nemo} not really
01[11:22] {@Threei}  threat of local currencies rallying forces contral banks buy dollar
[11:23] {nemo} It's still a head I win tails you lose scenario for many countries currency versus the $.  They can't let theirs appreciate too much, yet they have to develop new mechanisms to trade in other currencies...balancing act
01[11:23] {@Threei}  yes but the outcome of the balancing is, status quo preserved
01[11:23] {@Threei}  they have to buy dollars,
01[11:23] {@Threei}  they increase their holdings,
01[11:24] {@Threei}  thus they can't let them drop
[11:24] {nemo} but the mechanisms are developing to make trading in non-$ denominated debt possible across a greater number of currencies
01[11:24] {@Threei}  this is self-sustaining thing that pretty much makes USD invincible and its dominance unbreakable
01[11:24] {@Threei}  nope
[11:24] {nemo} mmmmmhhhh]
[11:24] {nemo} never say never
01[11:24] {@Threei}  that's a wishful thinking
01[11:25] {@Threei}  if that goes through, USD drops making their holding melt
01[11:25] {@Threei}  so they themselves will do everything possible to avoid that
01[11:25] {@Threei}  real danger to USD is not there
01[11:25] {@Threei}  these guys don't understand big picture
01[11:26] {@Threei}  Real danger is from within, from those who underatand just how unbreakable USD dominance is, and push it and oush it
01[11:26] {@Threei}  until one day they will push too far
01[11:26] {@Threei}  and ruin whole world financial system
[11:27] {nemo} back to the barbarous relic=real money
01[11:27] {@Threei}  but the problems that come with that are of such magnitude that USD dominance will be the last thing to worry about
01[11:28] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .45 break
01[11:29] {@Threei}  If holds  .55
01[11:29] {@Threei}  one more worthy quote:
01[11:30] {@Threei}  greenback has weathered numerous crises. It emerged from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, endured the introduction of the euro almost three decades later and maintained its status as a haven currency even when the 2008 collapse spread from Wall Street to economies around the world.
01[11:30] {@Threei}  is russian crisis bigger than any of those events?
01[11:32] {@Threei}  wrong again on short
[11:32] {nemo} I think the article said "hasten" away from yes?  Well it is causing further mechanisms to develop to trade in the $, yes?
[11:32] {nemo} out of rather
01[11:33] {@Threei}  well, it's wrong, IMO
01[11:33] {@Threei}  here is real trend:
01[11:33] {@Threei}  The U.S. currency climbed against all 16 major peers last month as fighting in Ukraine and the downing of a Malaysian jet over the country enhanced the appeal of haven assets. It extended gains today as NATO warned of a Russian incursion in Ukraine under the “pretext” of a humanitarian mission
01[11:34] {@Threei}  so, author of the article sees his mental construct, and trading trend,
01[11:34] {@Threei}  they are in contradiction
01[11:34] {@Threei}  what he choses to believe? :)
01[11:34] {@Threei}  apparently his construct
01[11:34] {@Threei}  reminds you antyhing?
[11:35] {nemo} people who believe in marriage?
01[11:35] {@Threei}  that too
[11:35] {nemo} don't be pickin' on bunny, I can hear u thinking
[11:39] {RonS} Italy's renewed recession drags euro to nine-month low against the dollar: http://bloom.bg/1sua2Id
01[11:40] {@Threei}  that makes sense
01[11:41] {@Threei}  just wait for EU crisis to reinflame, and for Russia to invade Ukraine, and USD will be flying in stratosphere
[11:43] {nemo} was it something I said?
[11:44] {troub} gotta run. always have winners when I leave so have fun.
[11:44] {nemo} sorry
01[11:49] {@Threei}  ugh, .60 was the right entry
01[11:54] {@Threei} Long Setup:  NUS  .60 break hl
01[11:54] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[11:55] {@Threei}  1:1
01[11:56] {@Threei}  1:2
01[11:57] {@Threei}  dino-like trade
[11:57] {RonS} ya was going to say:  good one dino, er 3i
01[11:57] {@Threei}  hehe
[12:09] {nemo} VXX looks long and SPY looks like short setting up, but might go for 193 stops first
[12:17] {nemo} well, coulda' picked your poison
[12:19] {nemo} we need to thank troub for leaving
01[12:45] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .20 break
01[12:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[12:49] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:16] {@Threei}  had 1:2 in it but rinsed the balance
01[13:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  vxx .15 break
01[13:45] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .15 break
01[13:45] {@Threei}  If holds  .05
01[13:46] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:48] {@Threei}  1:2
01[13:51] {@Threei}  1:3
01[13:53] {@Threei}  1:4
01[13:54] {@Threei}  almost 1:5, over and out
[13:55] {RonS} a beaut thanks 3i
01[13:56] {@Threei}  yw :)
01[14:00] {@Threei}  visual: http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2014/08/aug-06-2014.html
[14:54] {nemo} MON
[14:59] {RonS} outta here early...real nice day...see you in the morning
01[15:06] {@Threei}  take care ron
01[15:28] {@Threei}  thanks guys, have a good evening
01[15:28] {@Threei}  see you tomorrow

Aug 05 2014

Starting the day with 4 straight wins. Here are two of them:

Very nice day overall, continuing pretty much as it started and ending up with 1:3 on IWM long.


Session Time: Tue Aug 05 00:00:01 2014
[09:14] {RonS} gm guys
01[09:14] {@Threei}  ron :)
[09:15] {troub} good morning
01[09:16] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:21] {@Threei}  "Russia is turning into a second North Korea, only much, much larger, and far more dangerous"
[09:28] {nemo} numbers 10:00
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AIG +2.1% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GTAT +3.7% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -THC +1.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -CAR +5.0% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -COH +2.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ODP +5.7% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ISR +15% (positive results seen in Cesium-131 isotope for brain cancer)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -SALE -20% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -AEIS -7.1% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -FIVN -22% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -LF -13% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -ARCO -5.9% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -ENZY -36% (earnings)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  -BLMN -10% (earnings)
01[09:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  73 break
01[09:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:33] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .60 break hl
01[09:33] {@Threei}  If holds  .50
01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:3  FB
01[09:36] {@Threei}  1:1  SALE
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:38] {@Threei}  1:3
01[09:38] {@Threei}  out
[09:39] {troub} want off early again today?
01[09:41] {@Threei}  hehe
01[09:41] {@Threei}  gs will be upset... he came in around 2 yesterday
01[09:41] {@Threei}  and all that he had left was to read the log
[09:48] {goinshort} morning all!
01[09:48] {@Threei}  gs :)
01[09:48] {@Threei}  man... missed 2 1:3ers
[09:48] {goinshort} of course I did!
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .40 break hl
01[09:48] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:49] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:51] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .80 break
01[09:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:1
01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:2
01[09:53] {@Threei}  (close enough)
[09:53] {nemo} u playin' horseshoes?
[09:54] {goinshort} nice n fast  thanks
01[09:54] {@Threei}  :)
01[09:54] {@Threei}  I feel better, gs :)
[09:54] {nemo} numbers in 5
01[10:03] {@Threei}  (US) AUG IBD/TIPP ECONOMIC OPTIMISM: 44.5 V 47.3E
01[10:03] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 58.7 V 56.5E (highest since Dec 2005)
01[10:06] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SALE  .75 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  change to .70
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .60
01[10:07] {@Threei}  still hl
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:1
01[10:09] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:16] {@Threei}  1:4, out
[10:17] {nemo} gooing to .40ish
01[10:21] {@Threei}  there
01[10:21] {@Threei}  good call
[10:22] {nemo} one of my broken clock moments
01[10:34] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .35 break
01[10:34] {@Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:37] {goinshort} nice call SALE - thanks
01[10:41] {@Threei}  :)
01[10:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  TWTR  .25 break
01[10:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
[10:55] {goinshort} be back later
01[11:06] {@Threei}  1:1
[11:08] {troub} stp'd me @ .14 blah!
01[11:09] {@Threei}  it barely touched it with just coupke small prints and bounced right back immediately...
[11:09] {troub} yea.  fast broker with stops
01[11:10] {@Threei}  auto stops?
[11:10] {troub} that was, yes
01[11:10] {@Threei}  hate them
01[11:10] {@Threei}  and this is one of the reasons why
01[11:25] {@Threei}  touched 1:2, remainder stopped on a trail
[11:29] {RonS} blmn dieing...put a steak in it...
01[11:29] {@Threei}  lol
01[11:29] {@Threei}  took me a few
[11:30] {RonS} ya...actually my favorite steakhouse:  Fleming's
01[12:24] {@Threei}  (CA) Reportedly Canada and EU have finalized language of trade agreement, will announce the deal later today -
01[12:24] {@Threei}  English, I guess?
01[12:24] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .80 break
01[12:24] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[12:33] {@Threei}  no go
[12:36] {nemo} try it now
01[12:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .55 break
01[12:50] {@Threei}  If holds  .45
01[12:51] {@Threei}  Hospital officials in Colombus, Ohio say they are testing a person who recently traveled to West Africa for potential Ebola exposure
01[12:56] {@Threei}  half out
01[12:56] {@Threei}  stop to .49
01[13:00] {@Threei}  to .54
01[13:00] {@Threei}  1:1
01[13:26] {@Threei}  had mor in it, eh'
01[13:40] {@Threei}  no news that I see
[13:41] {RonS}  http://news.yahoo.com/russias-putin-orders-response-western-sanctions-154018201.html
01[13:42] {@Threei}  Hillary will never see her daughter studying in Kaluga university...
01[13:47] {@Threei}  UBS's Art Cashin: latest move down in the market is technical in nature - CNBC
[13:50] {RonS} guess cat'o nine tails is technical...
01[13:59] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .70 break
01[14:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .80
01[14:01] {@Threei}  1:1
01[14:01] {@Threei}  Financial Times: Russian troop build-up accelerates
[14:02] {RonS} driving Porches to the front?
01[14:03] {@Threei}  I wish
01[14:03] {@Threei}  tanks, ACs, Grads more like it
01[14:03] {@Threei}  AVs
01[14:09] {@Threei}  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYy4S--PBQM
01[14:10] {@Threei}  column of military equipment on Russia side of the border, moving toward Ukraine
01[14:13] {@Threei}  wow FB
[14:22] {RonS} wag gone pulp
[14:24] {nemo} lost it's prescription, huh Ron?
01[14:24] {@Threei}  WAG Said to be close to announcing takeover of Alliance Boots but will keep its US headquarters - UK press
[14:25] {RonS} guess the Boots kicked the stock...
[14:26] {nemo} that wasn't worthy of you
01[14:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  110 break
01[14:44] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[14:45] {@Threei}  111
[14:45] {nemo} 111 trades
01[14:48] {@Threei}  1:1
[14:56] {nemo} mmmhhh...getting that short feeling
[14:58] {nemo} IWM needs to hold above .15 spy above .25
01[15:14] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break
01[15:14] {@Threei}  If holds  .70
01[15:16] {@Threei}  1:1
01[15:19] {@Threei}  1:2
01[15:21] {@Threei}  1:3
01[15:21] {@Threei}  out
[15:21] {RonS} good one
01[15:22] {@Threei}  :)
01[15:22] {@Threei}  so far August goes quite well
01[15:22] {@Threei}  despite all the skeptics
01[15:37] {@Threei}  ugh... missed FB setup at .40
01[15:38] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
01[15:38] {@Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Aug 04 2014

6 calls. 6 wins. Who says Mondays are bad? Ending trading session early and happy.

Session Time: Mon Aug 04 00:00:00 2014

[08:29] {nemo} if KORS trades when the market opens like it is now, it's going to be a train wreck of epic proportions

01[09:07] {@Threei}  quiet and narrow

01[09:09] {@Threei}  KORS so far... a few more will come

[09:10] {RonS} gm...wish this was funny:  BREAKING: Pres Obama is said to be so frustrated over Congress's refusal to impeach him said he will sign executive order to impeach himself

01[09:10] {@Threei}  Ron :)

01[09:12] {@Threei}  actually it is mildly funny

01[09:16] {@Threei}  Upside:

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -PIKE +50% (Board agrees to $12/shr going-private offer from Court Square Partners & CEO Eric Pike)

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -DRTX +10% (momentum from 8/1 license & supply agreement with Angelini for Dalbavancin in certain European territories)

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -MEET +10% (earnings)

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -MBLY +7.8% (positive momentum from IPO on 8/1)

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -VNR +7.8% (signs agreement to acquire properties in North LA & East TX for $278M)

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -TKMR +7.6% (continued Ebola outbreak fears)

01[09:16] {@Threei}  -LGND +7% (earnings)

01[09:17] {@Threei}  Downside:

01[09:17] {@Threei}  -INSM -26% (regulatory update for ARIKAYCE with European authorities)

01[09:17] {@Threei}  -DEPO -8% (no news seen, earnings are 8/6)

01[09:17] {@Threei}  -HK -7.2% (negative broker commentary, potential momentum from last week's earnings)

01[09:17] {@Threei}  -TUBE -5.6% (potential profit-taking, premarket share price falling below $9 debut on 7/18)

01[09:17] {@Threei}  -KORS -2.5% (earnings & FY15 gross margin guidance)

[09:17] {RonS} was at a lake beach w/ daughter's family...group of Hmong there...interesting that the western diet has not affected their height...very small people still

[09:17] {troub} good morning you all

01[09:18] {@Threei}  troub :)

01[09:18] {@Threei}  I'd guess it's genetics :)

01[09:31] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .55 break

01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  .45 

01[09:32] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[09:33] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:3  

01[09:35] {@Threei}  out'

01[09:35] {@Threei}  1:4

[09:38] {troub} nice beginning Vad

01[09:38] {@Threei}  :)

01[09:38] {@Threei}  somewhat strange trading... too uneven

[09:38] {nemo} August Monday

01[09:39] {@Threei}  yeah, and without dino and ese volume suffers

[09:41] {nemo} "without...ese"  is a mixed blessing

01[09:43] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .60 break

01[09:43] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[09:43] {@Threei}  Invalidated  

[09:43] {nemo} .77 vwap

[09:44] {nemo} a little spready

[09:45] {nemo} seeting up short again

01[09:46] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .10 break

01[09:46] {@Threei}  If holds  73 

01[09:47] {@Threei}  valid

01[09:47] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[09:53] {@Threei}  1:2  

[10:06] {nemo} OXY

01[10:20] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .75 break

01[10:20] {@Threei}  If holds  .65 

01[10:21] {@Threei}  to .69

01[10:21] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[10:26] {@Threei}  next push please

01[10:40] {@Threei} Short Setup: SLW  26 break

01[10:40] {@Threei}  If holds  .06 

01[10:54] {@Threei}  sloooow

[10:55] {nemo} as a snail crawling through a puddle of molasses

01[10:56] {@Threei}  one-legged snail

01[10:56] {@Threei}  half out .93

[10:56] {nemo} they have legs?

01[10:57] {@Threei}  they move, so they must

01[10:57] {@Threei}  for instance look at the snake - it's all one big leg

01[10:58] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[10:59] {@Threei}  1/4 more out

01[11:03] {@Threei}  1:2  

01[11:03] {@Threei}  slow but sure :)

01[11:15] {@Threei}  1:3  SLW  close enough

01[11:16] {@Threei}  out +.27

01[11:16] {@Threei}  that's 4:4

01[11:19] {@Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .75 break

01[11:19] {@Threei}  If holds  .70 

01[11:27] {@Threei}  - Among other movers, Groupon is up nearly 6% ahead of earnings after the close on Tuesday

[11:28] {nemo} aapl

01[11:28] {@Threei}  - Shares of luxury goods name Michael Kors are down nearly 8% in the early going despite a pretty strong first quarter report. The firm widely beat top- and bottom-line expectations, saw a 24% gain in comps and raised its FY15 outlook. However on the conference call, executives warned that margins would be compressed due to increased markdowns and disclosed a big increase in inventories, hitting the stock hard.

01[11:28] {@Threei}  half out

01[11:29] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[11:32] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .45 break

01[11:32] {@Threei}  If holds  .35 

01[11:33] {@Threei}  1:1  

01[11:41] {@Threei}  1:2  IWM  close enough

01[11:52] {@Threei}  6 calls, 6 wins

01[11:52] {@Threei}  want to finish trading session on this?

[11:53] {troub} probably should although I missed 2 of them

01[11:53] {@Threei}  4 out of 6 is not too shabby

01[11:53] {@Threei}  afternoons are much more random

01[11:53] {@Threei}  I say why spoil perfect day

[11:54] {troub} do you have Nemo's permission?

06[11:54] * @Threei slants at nemo

01[11:56] {@Threei}  I think he is asleep

[11:57] {RonS} tend to agree 3i...great performance for a Monday...

01[11:58] {@Threei}  :)

01[11:58] {@Threei}  ok guys, thank you, see you tomorrow!

Market Week Wrap-up

TradeTheNews.com  Weekly Market Update: Volatility Strikes Back

Market volatility picked up this week the array of policy and geopolitical concerns that have lurked in the background for weeks started to hit home. The EU formally announced more biting economic sanctions against Russia over its meddling in Ukraine. Argentina entered a technical default after dragging its heels in settlement talks with holdout creditors. In the US, the FOMC maintained the pace of QE tapering and tweaked its policy statement to acknowledge somewhat higher inflation and continuing labor market slack, although the hawkish notes garnered more attention among analysts. The initial reading of Q2 US GDP showed economic growth came roaring back from the Q1 stumble. The July jobs report was less good than the excellent June numbers, but hardly weak. July confidence, ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence all came in much stronger than expected. The solid US numbers contrasted with another four -year low in European July CPI data, weak Japanese employment, manufacturing and employment numbers and continuing geopolitical stress emanating from Israel and Ukraine, and the VIX index of S&P500 volatility shot up toward the end of the week, trading as highs as 17.50 on Friday, its highest level since mid-March. During the week, the selloff in high-yield bonds accelerated, and for the month of July registered their biggest price declines in over a year, as lofty valuations and concerns about the potential for interest-rate increases drove a flight from funds that hold riskier debt. For the week, the DJIA tumbled 2.8%, the S&P500 declined dropped 2.7% and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%.

- The FOMC adjusted its statement in two notable ways. On the dovish side, commentary on the labor market acknowledged that conditions had improved and "there remains significant underutilization of labor resources". This is consistent with Chair Yellen's moves to watch a broader selection of employment indicators and furnish a rationale for keeping policy easy as unemployment falls toward 6% and beyond. On a more hawkish note, the statement acknowledged that inflation "has moved somewhat closer" to target and the FOMC "judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2% has diminished somewhat," removing the previous warning about the risks of persistently low inflation.

- The other major change in the decision was Philadelphia Fed President Plosser's dissent, in objection to the low rates for "a considerable time period" language. In a letter of explanation released on Friday, Plosser said the job market has improved more rapidly than expected yet the Fed hasn't shifted course, warning the FOMC's language was an inappropriate characterization of the future path of policy and could limit flexibility going forward. Dallas Fed President Fisher said that despite his opposition to some Fed policies, he felt the debate within the committee had shifted in his direction, especially given the FOMC statement language that inflation was moving closer target.

- The Q2 US GDP data was very strong, at +4.0% v +3.0%e, and the final Q1 reading was revised to -2.1% from -2.9%. Two components had an outsized role in sending the headline number higher: consumption and inventories. Consumption bounced back from a +1.2% rate in Q1 to a healthy +2.5% rate in Q2, concentrated in durable goods spending. Meanwhile, inventories added about 1.6 percentage points to the GDP figure, which more than offsets the 1.16 point drawdown in inventories seen in Q1.

- General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all reported another strong month of sales gains in July, though the numbers ran slightly below expectations. Ford and GM sales gained 10% and 9.4%, respectively, while Chrysler sales were up 20% y/y. Ford's truck sales recovered from June's slide lower, and GM's inventory fell. A GM sales executive said strong sales should continue through the balance of the year, with plenty of pent-up demand for trucks and SUVs. Toyota and Nissan both saw 11%+ gains in sales.

- Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo is at the edge of collapse after the firm's reported a giant €3.57 billion loss for the first half of the year. The bank holding company, RioForte, and units Espirito Santo International SA Espirito Santo Financiere all sought bankruptcy protection in Luxemburg. There were reports that the Portugal government would bail out the company with public funds, just days after the Bank of Portugal said the firm would be able to resolve its capital shortfall in public markets.

- Most of the energy majors reported quarterly results this week. Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco all beat earnings expectations on solid profit growth, thanks to higher oil prices, although all three saw production fall y/y. Second-tier names Occidental and Marathon also saw similar results. Refiners Phllips 66 and Valero both missed earnings expectations thanks to a slump in refining profits, as margins fell on the higher crude prices in the quarter.

- Pharma giant Amgen crushed expectations on 23% y/y net profit growth and hiked its FY14 guidance. Amgen also said it would cut 12-15% of its workforce and restructure operations. Pfizer and Merck saw solid profit gains, although revenue at both firms was stagnant and both tightened up guidance. Regarding its failed bid for AstraZeneca, Pfizer's CEO said he was still open to M&A deals, regardless of size.

- Kellogg and Colgate missed revenue expectations and Kellogg cut its FY14 guidance outlook. Kellogg saw revenue sag in key North America markets, while overall revenue fell slightly. Clorox's result was more muted, and the firm warned FY15 revenues would be flat. Procter & Gamble reported strong quarterly results, good FY15 guidance and disclosed a plan to sell off up to 100 of its brand holdings. Card companies Visa, MasterCard, and American Express all disclosed very strong results, with solid gains in payment volumes.

- Shares of momentum names Tesla, LinkedIn, and Twitter saw strong gains post-earnings. All three had good quarters, however shares of Twitter outperformed the bunch, gaining approximately 25% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. Twitter quieted doubters with big gains in MAUs, advertising revenue, and overall performance seen in the firm's second quarter.

- Two high-profile merger deals announced this week were immediately met with skepticism. Online real estate site Trulia agreed to be acquired by competitor Zillow for $3.5 billion in stock. Critics point out that neither company is profitable and the promised cost savings from the deal would get the combined company to about breakeven. Family Dollar agreed to be acquired by Dollar Tree for $74.50/share, in a total deal valued at $9.2 billion. Activist Carl Icahn has been pushing FDO to sell itself to one of the other dollar store operators, and analysts note that both firms have flagging sales, very different business models and few cost saving synergies.

- The one-way trade in EUR/USD turned around in the second half of the week after the US jobs report. By Wednesday, the pair had dropped to eight-month lows around 1.3370, driven lower by the continuing contrast between US economic recovery and Europe's slow slide into deflation, Russia sanctions, US GDP strength and hawkish notes in the FOMC statement. However the slightly less-than-perfect jobs report on Friday gave FX traders an excuse to buy the euro, sending the pair back to the highs of the week, around 1.3445.

- In July, cable posted its worst monthly performance since March 2013, down about 1.2%. GBP/USD tested below 1.6820 briefly on Friday. Analysts suggest the recent run of softer UK economic data has shifted market expectations on the timing of a rate hike to early 2015 from late 2014. In Japan, the weaker data sent USD/JPY out to six-week highs above 103.

- The Shanghai Composite remained relatively insulated from the turmoil in the US markets, rising another 2.8% this week following last week's 3.2% leap. Beijing's targeted mini-stimulus measures have clearly hit their mark, as China industrial profits grew at the fastest pace in 5 months, and the official manufacturing PMI topped consensus by three-tenths to reach 27-month high at 51.7. Comments from the National Bureau of Stats were tempered after these data, noting the low base effect in industrial profits and also warning about the risks remaining in the smaller sectors of the economy. The HSBC manufacturing PMI, which surveys less prominent firms, did decline to 51.7 from the 52.0 flash print but still remains at an 18-month high.

TradeTheNews

Aug 1 2014

A few good ones, a few rinses - finishing somewhat in the red overall. Good positive week though.


Session Start: Fri Aug 01 00:00:00 2014

[09:01] {dino} gm
[09:04] {RonS} gm...did i crash the board yesterday w/ that jobs comment?  mea culpa...
01[09:04] {@Threei}  dino :)
01[09:04] {@Threei}  ron :)
01[09:05] {@Threei}  well, last call on DDD made just before the crash worked
01[09:05] {@Threei}  hope someone got it
[09:14] {troub} good morning you all
01[09:16] {@Threei}  troub :)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Upside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BYI +32% (acquisition by SGMS)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -LNKD +9.2 (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -AWI +6.2 % (ValueAct discloses stake, broker comments)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -SYNA +4.5% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  Downside:
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -BOTA -40% (Phase 2 Trial of Laninamivir Octanoate Did Not Meet Primary Endpoint)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -WWWW -24% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -YRCW -15% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -PXLW -12% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -GPRO -11% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ADNC -9.8% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -MT -5.9% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -EEP -4.2% (earnings)
01[09:28] {@Threei}  -ATHL: -4.1% (pricing of public offering at $46.25/shr)
01[09:29] {@Threei}  WHO: If the ebola situation in West Africa continues to worsen, the consequences could be catastrophic
01[09:31] {@Threei} Short Setup: TWTR  .90 break
01[09:31] {@Threei}  If holds  45
01[09:32] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[09:33] {dino} arrs sm l .14
[09:33] {ese} gm
01[09:34] {@Threei}  ese :)
01[09:36] {@Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .20 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  actually, let's change to .25 break
01[09:37] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
01[09:39] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[09:40] {@Threei}  both calls worked as two-sided
01[09:41] {@Threei}  gotta watch for these setups and call as such
01[09:41] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  73 break
01[09:42] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[09:42] {@Threei}  nope
01[09:44] {@Threei}  rinse
01[09:47] {@Threei}  ugh... 1:3
01[09:48] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .40 break
01[09:49] {@Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:49] {dino} kors sm l .50
01[09:55] {@Threei}  *(US) JULY FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 81.8 V 81.8E
01[10:00] {@Threei}  *(US) JUN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M: -1.8% V 0.5%E
01[10:00] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  31 break
01[10:00] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[10:00] {@Threei}  Invalidated
01[10:00] {@Threei}  (US) JULY ISM MANUFACTURING: 57.1 V 56.0E; PRICES PAID: 59.5 V 58.0E
[10:02] {ese} hmmmmm
01[10:06] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  73 break
01[10:06] {@Threei}  If holds  .10
01[10:06] {@Threei}  valid
01[10:10] {@Threei}  1:1
[10:11] {dino} kors stop -.30
01[10:13] {@Threei}  1:2
01[10:13] {@Threei}  finally hooked one
01[10:14] {@Threei}  1:3
01[10:15] {@Threei}  closed
[10:17] {goinshort} nice call V -thanks
01[10:25] {@Threei}  :)
[10:31] {nemo} VRSN
[10:43] {nemo} OXY
01[10:44] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .30 break
01[10:44] {@Threei}  ugh, late
[10:46] {nemo} OXY looks long above .20 if it holds .10
[10:47] {nemo} this tempo today though makes me think you'll get a flush after it breaks.  Might be better to see if break holds, or if it doesn't when it comes back in it stays near .10 then comes right back up
01[10:47] {@Threei}  grrr VXX
[10:49] {nemo} OXY holding in this down move
[10:58] {nemo} there's your 1:1
[10:59] {nemo} think .70ish a reasonable target
[11:00] {nemo} oh well
01[11:06] {@Threei}  can you believe we were 5 seconds late for VXX?
01[11:06] {@Threei}  1:9
[11:12] {RonS} cjes gone pulp
[11:12] {RonS} feye gone gone
[11:16] {nemo} X short
[11:32] {nemo} it's going down while spy is strengthening, should test the close and maybe lows
01[11:38] {@Threei} Short Setup: FB  .90 break
01[11:38] {@Threei}  If holds  72
[11:40] {nemo} X at yestrday's close
01[11:42] {@Threei}  nah'
01[11:50] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
01[11:50] {@Threei}  If holds  110
01[11:51] {@Threei}  Invalidated
[11:52] {RonS} -1432 tick
01[11:52] {@Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  110 break
01[11:52] {@Threei}  If holds  .90
01[11:54] {@Threei}  a lot of emotions suddenly
01[11:55] {@Threei}  *(AR) ISDA RULES THAT ARGENTINA IS IN A FAILURE TO PAY CREDIT EVENT
01[11:55] {@Threei}  how is it news
01[11:56] {@Threei}  kust an acknowledgement
01[11:56] {@Threei}  just
[11:56] {ese} it just is
[11:56] {dino} feye sm l .60
01[12:00] {@Threei}  ugh
01[12:04] {@Threei}  rinse
[12:09] {RonS} lol...Friday, markets melting but what I wanna know is what #Bacon prices are doing?
01[12:09] {@Threei} Long Setup:  FB  .80 break
01[12:09] {@Threei}  lol
[12:11] {dino} bacon is sizzling
[12:17] {ese} looks like the DJ is going to hit that 162.7 target you were talking about yesterday dino
[12:17] {ese} the gap
[12:18] {dino} markets down 4% from highs last week. 4-5% has been the buy area
[12:19] {dino} maybe so ese
[12:19] {dino} media seems to be a doom and gloom
01[13:12] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .20 break
01[13:12] {@Threei}  If holds  .15
01[13:14] {@Threei}  hate today's afternoon
[13:14] {nemo} question is, do we get short covering later
[13:15] {ese} make a great weekend all.....cya next week
[13:15] {nemo} 1.5 break now
[13:15] {nemo} .15
01[13:15] {@Threei}  take care ese
01[13:16] {@Threei}  (*&#$@*
[13:16] {nemo} there's ur 1:1  and then some
01[13:16] {@Threei}  another rinse
[13:17] {nemo} indexes in short formation
[13:17] {nemo} stop around .10ish
[13:18] {nemo} it's got to get above .25
[13:18] {nemo} gnite
[13:19] {nemo} Have fun storming the castle....
[13:30] {dino} uwm hl l .30
[13:32] {nemo} forgot about the uwm
[13:33] {nemo} not for the faint of heart
[13:36] {nemo} would think vxx long around vwap too
[13:38] {nemo} R1 there too
[13:43] {nemo} vxx long .35
[13:43] {nemo} stop under Vwap
01[13:44] {@Threei}  nice entry
[13:45] {nemo} first target .55
[13:45] {nemo} next above .70
[13:46] {nemo} interesting if vxx continues to come in today, still complacency
[13:47] {nemo} sheesh
[13:47] {nemo} support @ .17
[13:48] {nemo} another setup forming
[13:48] {nemo} this would be buy it here with stop under .17 or wait until break of .40
[13:49] {nemo} put the stop under the doji
[13:49] {nemo} having said that, don't have short setups on indexes
[13:49] {nemo} yet
[13:54] {nemo} is this the vxx higher low?
[13:55] {nemo} what's tough are the other indexes are at VWAP
01[13:55] {@Threei}  really can't tell
[13:55] {nemo} yeah, nobody knows what to do here
[13:55] {dino} markets are going up
[13:55] {nemo} I've got the scarecrow signal at the moment
[13:57] {dino} out feye .90, +.30
[13:57] {nemo} you're so frickin' lucky
[13:59] {nemo} there go the VWAP stops
[13:59] {dino} not really, too tight on trail
[13:59] {nemo} frickin' stop  hunters
[13:59] {nemo} damn short sellers
[13:59] {nemo} ffffnnnn hfters
[13:59] {nemo} commie bastids
06[13:59] * nemo thinks he's had enough coffee
[14:00] {nemo} 31.92 next support
[14:01] {nemo} and the algos bought the whole number
[14:10] {dino} out uwm .71, +.41
01[14:10] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:10] {dino} ty
[14:15] {nemo} hah, vxx low......93
[14:20] {RonS} didn't want to raise it while ese was here but wonder if he's holding wprt?...
01[14:20] {@Threei}  he did?
01[14:21] {@Threei}  I remember BLDP
[14:21] {RonS} pump and dump vancouver bastids...
01[14:22] {@Threei}  :)
[14:22] {nemo} I copyrighted that
01[14:33] {@Threei}  (US) President Obama plans statement at 1435ET - Note: A Variety of issues could be discussed, including discussions about Congress failing to accomplish certain items before their August break, Ebola, and/or recent conversation with Russia President Putin on the Ukraine issue. May also discuss the jobs figures from this morning
[14:36] {RonS} jhChrist, what could go wrong?  Pentagon says Ebola patients will arrive at Atlanta-area air base via non-military aircraft
[14:37] {dino} whatever happened to containing epidemics
[14:37] {dino} next thing that will happen is they will transort them on cruise ships
[14:38] {dino} feye hl l .60
01[14:38] {@Threei}  my only questiin is: will entire Congress go greet them? shake hands? hug?
[14:38] {dino} maybe they are planning to thin the herd
[14:39] {RonS} meet & great with the central am kids?
[14:40] {cosmo} its called airborne Ebola...
01[14:52] {@Threei}  (US) President Obama: Will veto the House Republicans' 'extreme' scaled down border legislation - notes the Republican border legislation is unworkable
[14:56] {dino} feye out .84, +.24
01[14:56] {@Threei}  wtg
[14:56] {dino} ty
[14:56] {dino} btw, will be on vacation until thursday
01[14:59] {@Threei}  difficult life
01[15:00] {@Threei}  you will have to undertake that extremely stressful golf, won't you?
[15:00] {dino} yes, legends mooreland, heathland, parkland and oyster bay
[15:01] {dino} tough job, but somebody has to do it
01[15:03] {@Threei}  we owe you a debt of gratitude
01[15:08] {@Threei} Long Setup:  VXX  .50 break
01[15:08] {@Threei}  If holds  .40
[15:09] {troub} dino, need an elderly caddy?
[15:13] {dino} prefer a hot one
[15:13] {nemo} that'll go over well with your wife
[15:13] {dino} yeah, thats probably pushing it. but you do see them on the course
[15:14] {nemo} dcc dino
[15:14] {troub} age descrimination?
[15:15] {nemo} are you a hot older one?  then no
[15:16] {troub} well I sweat a lot
[15:17] {nemo} ex-politician troub
[15:17] {nemo} ?
01[15:50] {@Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
01[15:51] {@Threei}  have a great weekend, see you Monday
01[15:51] {@Threei}  have fun dino
[15:51] {dino} ty, and gn