Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Aug 23 2011

As most slow creep-up days, this one would have been an empty and boring for us, if not for a milk trade below:

Details of the call start at 11:34

Session Time: Tue Aug 23 00:00:00 2011
[09:21] {RonS} top o' the morning everyone
[09:21] {larisa} gm :)
[09:24] {nemo} no vad
[09:27] {RonS} make the call nemo...lemme guess...short slw...
[09:27] {nemo} hehehehe...gonna' be weird this morning, NYSE having order routing issues
[09:29] {dino} gm
[09:29] {Threei}  good morning
[09:29] {Threei}  sorry, little tech troubles, will get organizrd in a min
[09:29] {nemo} got my rally
[09:29] {nemo} we'll see if it lasts
[09:31] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Former Fed Chairman Greenspan: The euro is "breaking down," this process is causing difficulties; some collateral held by Euro area is 'questionable'
[09:31] {Threei}  - The difficulties in the Eurozone could hurt US companies.
[09:31] {Threei}  - US not yet facing a double dip recession.
[09:33] {nemo} currency collapse...but not a double dip
[09:34] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:34] {nemo} hey RON!!!
[09:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .75 break
[09:37] {Threei}  stop above .85
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:40] {Threei}  1:2
[09:45] {dino} brk/b sm l .04
[09:45] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .70 break
[09:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .80 break
[09:48] {Threei}  short it is
[09:49] {nemo} probably on hold until the 10:00 numbers
[09:49] {Threei}  no go
[09:49] {dino} csh sm l .50
[09:49] {dino} thin
[09:56] {Threei}  (GR) Finland PM Katainen: Finland could drop out of the Greece bailout deal if it did not receive collateral commitments from Greece
[09:57] {Threei}  ok, waiting out numbers
[09:57] {RonS} one trick pony?...said that last week...
[09:57] {Threei}  things are too unclear here
[09:57] {Threei}  Obama: Strongly Approve: 19%.. Strongly Disapprove 45%... Approval Index: -26
[09:57] {Threei}  breakdown
[09:58] {Threei}  held -21-22% for a long while
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) AUG RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING: -10 V -5E
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) JULY NEW HOME SALES: 298K V 310KE
[10:00] {Threei}  triple yaikes
[10:02] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[10:02] {dino} hmmm bad news is good?
[10:03] {Threei}  if stays under .90
[10:04] {Threei}  target .45, 3 partials
[10:04] {Threei}  actually, in a way it is, dino
[10:05] {Threei}  worse economic news, more chance for Ben to announce QE3
[10:05] {Threei}  thus market reacting this way
[10:05] {dino} hmmm again, :D
[10:05] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[10:05] {Threei}  stop to .83
[10:08] {dino} out brk/b .54 +,50
[10:11] {dino} out csh ave .96, +.46
[10:11] {RonS} gj
[10:11] {Threei}  nice back to back wins
[10:12] {Threei}  out second half SLW
[10:13] {dino} ty
[10:18] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:18] {Threei}  hesitated about SLW long on 40 break
[10:18] {Threei}  was probably worth it
[10:19] {Threei}  but it's a toughie to call
[10:34] {dino} tzoo sm l .01
[10:36] {Threei}  (GR) Institute of International Finance (IIF) Official: Concerned that other euro zone bailout creditor nations may be asking for Greek collateral
[10:36] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:37] {Threei}  it's a concern that creditors want a collateral?
[10:37] {Threei}  how dare they
[10:37] {dino} lol
[10:39] {dino} out tzoo .76, +.75
[10:40] {RonS} gj
[10:41] {dino} ty
[10:43] {Threei}  remember we talked about SLW losing connection with market?
[10:43] {Threei}  look at it today
[10:43] {Threei}  in its own world
[10:43] {RonS} nemo, just learned the 30 yr yield in .tyx
[10:43] {RonS} is
[10:51] {dino}  panl sm s .74
[10:52] {dino} cov panl .43,
[10:52] {dino} +.31
[10:54] {Threei}  can't get today's rythm
[10:54] {nemo} would be no problem if you had turrets or epilepsy
[10:54] {Threei}  ah
[10:54] {dino} put some music on
[10:54] {Threei}  that's where the secret is...
[10:55] {nemo} yeah, Rage at the Machine
[10:58] {dino} bulls on parade
[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[11:07] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[11:07] {Threei}  most likely just a scalp, maybe 1:2
[11:12] {Threei}  no go
[11:34] {Threei}  SPY looks to form breakout
[11:35] {dino} 1145 yesterday high
[11:35] {Threei}  yeah, and intraday looks very solid to break this level
[11:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .70 break
[11:36] {Threei}  .55 support
[11:37] {dino} tzoo sm l .00
[11:38] {Threei}  milk trade potential
[11:38] {Threei}  1:1
[11:38] {Threei}  1/3 out .90
[11:39] {Threei}  next partial arounf 38.10
[11:39] {Threei}  stop to .65
[11:41] {Threei}  notice how SLW moves against the market
[11:41] {Threei}  safe haven status
[11:42] {nemo} moving with gld
[11:42] {Threei}  right
[11:42] {Threei}  same idea
[11:44] {Threei}  ok TNA
[11:44] {Threei}  time for brrrrreak
[11:44] {Threei}  yup, like this
[11:44] {Threei}  secind 1/3 out
[11:45] {Threei}  stop to .75
[11:46] {Threei}  last 1/3 is broken by two halves, offering one at .35
[11:47] {Threei}  stop to .89
[11:47] {dino} smr l mhrPd ave .90
[11:48] {Threei}  that's a laugh:
[11:48] {Threei}  (GR) Greence Fin Min Venizelos: Attempting to be removed from the most severe aspect of the crisis by the middle part of 2014
[11:49] {larisa} Greence or Yellonwce ?
[11:50] {Threei}  asking me? I am just copy/pasting
[11:51] {Threei}  I have enough of my own typos, not taking reponsibility for someone's {G}
[11:51] {Threei}  out .35
[11:51] {Threei}  last part left
[11:51] {Threei}  stop to .05
[11:51] {nemo} why didn't you hold to yesterday's high?
[11:51] {Threei}  under last pullback's low
[11:51] {nemo} oh you are
[11:51] {Threei}  I still have last piece
[11:56] {Threei}  +$1.00
[11:56] {Threei}  out
[11:56] {dino} gj
[11:56] {Threei}  ty
[11:56] {Threei}  milk trade
[11:56] {Threei}  day-making one, too
[11:57] {nemo} wow is spy ripping
[11:58] {nemo} either .40 or .88 area
[11:59] {dino} out tzoo .33, +.33
[12:00] {dino} out MHRpD .77, +.87
[12:08] {Threei}  wtg
[12:10] {dino} ty
[12:13] {Threei}  guys
[12:13] {Threei}  am I in this univerese at all?
[12:13] {Threei}  look at this
[12:13] {Threei}  (GR) German CDU Parliament Member Fuchs: Neither Finland nor any other euro zone member state will receive collateral guarantees for aid contributions to Greece
[12:13] {Threei}  - Calls on Italy to sell off gold holdings rather than take on fresh debt.
[12:13] {Threei}  - Germany's CDU leader Kauder also remarks that collateral deals shouldnt be sought
[12:13] {Threei}  ***Reminder: Earlier in the session, Finland PM Katainen said that Finland would drop out of the Greece bailout deal if it did not receive collateral commitments from Greece
[12:18] {Threei}  (GR) Euro zone members are said to be discussing non-cash collateral options for Greece bailout loans - financial press
[12:18] {Threei}  - Real estate is said to be one of the options being discussed.
[12:20] {RonS} german financial analyst Vize Acker says the problem with real estate is that all of it is ancient in greece
[12:20] {dino} i would not loan to them w/o collateral either
[12:20] {Threei}  lol ron
[12:21] {dino} real problem is greece will not own any greek land if default, defacto invasion
[12:22] {Threei}  right
[12:22] {Threei}  how do you loan money to entity that ceases to exist if you exercise your collateral rights
[12:23] {dino} as it is now, default is uncollateralized, so in greeces'
[12:23] {dino} mind, thanks suckers
[12:23] {Threei}  it's not a problem for a mobster loaning money to a corner store owner
[12:23] {Threei}  but when we are talking about whole country...
[12:24] {dino} the next german invasion, lol
[12:26] {Threei}  pretty much
[12:26] {Threei}  how do you take over country peacefully
[12:26] {Threei}  "it's our land now"
[12:26] {dino} thru collateralized loan defaults
[12:26] {Threei}  yeah right... imagine the national backlash
[12:27] {dino} then it goes un=peacefully
[12:27] {Threei}  when the whole nation goes to the streets
[12:27] {Threei}  do you go to war?
[12:27] {Threei}  I am pretty sure germany has zero appetite for that
[12:27] {dino} greece should default now before it is too late
[12:41] {dino} wow got out of mhrpd way soon
[12:41] {nemo} think market begins to backtrack when iwm gets to .38
[12:50] {nemo} spy at trend
[13:02] {dino} feels up
[13:17] {Threei}  SPY maybe finally hinting of reversing
[13:23] {Threei}  ugh
[13:24] {Threei}  just prepared TZA alert
[13:24] {Threei}  maybe on pullback
[13:43] {RonS} lol, that dino is something else...tzoo -7.3% on a day like today and he made $ long
[13:45] {dino} ;)
[13:47] {Threei}  hehe
[13:47] {Threei}  TZA
[13:47] {Threei}  .60 break long
[13:47] {nemo} ballsy call
[13:47] {Threei}  stop under .50
[13:48] {Threei}  oh well
[13:54] {Threei}  arghhhh
[13:54] {Threei}  was just one entry early
[13:54] {Threei}  (EU) German Chancellor Merkel rejects gold collateral as part of EU bailout - financial press
[13:54] {Threei}  Reports of buildings shakings in Washington DC and NY; Magnitude 5.8 earthquake reported in Virginia
[13:54] {Threei}  oh boy
[13:55] {RonS} did they balance the budget?
[13:57] {Threei}  then it wqouldn't be just 5.8
[13:57] {Threei}  it would be 8.5 at least
[13:57] {Threei}  and snow in August
[13:57] {RonS} true 'nuff
[13:59] {Threei}  why no one "liked" this
[13:59] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=249504998417516&set=a.237133656321317.63196.235739863127363&type=1
[13:59] {dino} whats wrong w/gold collatteral?
[13:59] {Threei}  come on guys, should I ask every time or what :)
[13:59] {Threei}  well... I guess she doesn't want barbaric relic, dino :)
[14:00] {Threei}  and while you are on it,
[14:00] {Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/RealityTrader/posts/249492385085444
[14:01] {RonS} ...need to be a member of facebook to like stuff...not doing it
[14:01] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PM Papandreou: Systemic problems EU still need to be resolved
[14:01] {Threei}  you don't say Papandreou
[14:05] {RonS} gs sm l 103.98
[14:10] {RonS} out scratch gs
[14:11] {nemo} things looking long here
[14:16] {Threei}  really?
[14:16] {Threei}  I don't see it
[14:16] {Threei}  SPY looks breakdownish to me
[14:18] {Threei}  maybe not
[14:19] {nemo} 114.72 is weekly pivot, it might end up hanging around here
[14:19] {nemo} vwap down at .25 and climbing
[14:20] {nemo} you also have, and Iunderstand this might be anal, but...the 61.8% retracement from the July '10 low is at .60 and of course R1 on the daily is at .50, so there's velcro in this area of the chart
[14:25] {dino}  "velcro", nice
[14:25] {nemo} ty
[14:25] {Threei}  nemo has a way with words
[14:25] {nemo} here's this weeks spy levels:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1507e969-7fd3-4e1c-8efd-106f28b0179a
[14:25] {Threei}  me, I'd simply say SPY ass is glued to sofa somewhere around here
[14:26] {Threei}  can't see it wihtout silverlight
[14:26] {nemo} yeah, I tend to be more sesquipedalian
[14:27] {nemo} I'll send you a JPG
[14:27] {Threei}  ty, but no worry
[14:27] {nemo} fine
[14:27] {Threei}  I'll forget it in a few minutes
[14:27] {nemo} I won't send you a jpg
[14:27] {Threei}  considr my memory span please
[14:48] {Threei}  you were right on the upward
[14:48] {nemo} I think this trend continues until we test 116.70
[14:48] {nemo} unless of course we get an exogenous news event
[14:49] {RonS} jf returns to room?
[14:49] {nemo} Vad grows hair on his head
[14:49] {RonS} lol...too funny
[14:50] {nemo} probably not to vad...
[14:51] {Threei}  why... I am giggling acrtually
[14:51] {Threei}  -r
[14:51] {dino}  tzoo bounces
[14:51] {nemo} can I get a bit more rudely personal?
[14:51] {Threei}  depends on the target
[14:52] {nemo} you
[14:52] {Threei}  no
[14:52] {nemo} oh
[14:52] {Threei}  lol
[14:52] {nemo} damn, had a good line in that vein
[14:52] {Threei}  ok, can't miss a chance to hear a good line
[14:52] {Threei}  let's hear it
[14:52] {nemo} Of course, you could always have it transplanted from your back
[14:53] {Threei}  nah... sorry, I hoped for more
[14:53] {nemo} sorry
[15:02] {Threei}  nemo
[15:02] {nemo} vad
[15:02] {Threei}  a few 5+earhquakes today
[15:02] {Threei}  you promised end of the world in 2012
[15:02] {nemo} prep work
[15:03] {Threei}  running ahead of schedule or what?
[15:03] {nemo} nah,,,,setting up the dominoes
[15:03] {Threei}  ok
[15:03] {Threei}  don't fortget to alert us if plans change
[15:03] {Threei}  we need to adjust spending pattrens
[15:03] {nemo} sure
[15:04] {Threei}  I firmly intend to owe about $5 million at the moment of world ending
[15:04] {nemo} we'll call you Steve Buscemi
[15:05] {Threei}  Election 2012: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 43%
[15:05] {Threei}  I want to shake the hand of generic republican
[15:06] {nemo} frankly, I'd like to see Ron Paul win
[15:06] {Threei}  never gonna happen
[15:06] {nemo} nope
[15:07] {Threei}  little dry old man intending to call home all military and abolish the fed - Presidnet?
[15:07] {Threei}  haha
[15:07] {Threei}  not in this millenium
[15:07] {nemo} yeah, much too practical
[15:09] {nemo} holy shit...didn't think we'd get 116.75 today
[15:09] {nemo} wow
[15:12] {Threei}  impressive rally today
[15:12] {dino}  ikts coming
[15:12] {dino} its
[15:12] {Threei}  credit goes to nemo for early call on it
[15:12] {nemo} yeah
[15:12] {nemo} yeah, yesterday ;)
[15:12] {Threei}  and trust me, it pains me to say that
[15:13] {nemo} Now that was a broken clock moment
[15:13] {nemo} Funny though...without the emotion of news
[15:14] {nemo} if you look at the spy, it tested a bottom three times and held
[15:14] {nemo} and it was a bottom that was a higher low from the one earlier in the month
[15:16] {nemo} Vad...remember (yeah right) how you said the daily looked horrible yesterday?
[15:16] {nemo} I look at the 4 hour alot, because with HFT and algorithmic trading I figure they figure everybody looks at the daily
[15:17] {nemo} Am I paranoid?
[15:17] {dino} no
[15:17] {Threei}  not really, additional time frame provides additional insight
[15:17] {Threei}  not sure HFT has much to do with it,
[15:18] {nemo} yeah, 4 hour very bullish
[15:18] {Threei}  but volatility caused by general nervouseness and news flow does
[15:18] {Threei}  daily still looks bad, even with today's fix-up
[15:18] {Threei}  volume is dropping off on green candle, see?
[15:18] {dino} bigger issue, imo, will we drop 300 tomorrow?
[15:18] {Threei}  exactly
[15:19] {nemo} http://jmckinley.posterous.com/dc-earthquake-devastation
[15:22] {dino} roflol
[15:54] {Threei}  nice day, mostly thanks to that milk trade
[15:54] {Threei}  not bad, considering that we don't perform too hot on slow creep-up days
[15:54] {Threei}  thank you all, have a great evening
[15:54] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:54] {larisa} bye :)
[15:56] {dino}    thx all, good time