Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Sep 20 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Positive day but we haven' played it to its full potential - reversal and drop closer to end of day was one of those things that we saw coming and haven't found the right way to benefit from.

Session Time: Tue Sep 20 00:00:00 2011
[09:10] {Threei}  don't tell me... it's morning again?
[09:11] {patience} it starts earlier every day
[09:11] {Threei}  sigh
[09:13] {dino} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:15] {RonS} gm everyone
[09:15] {patience} good morning Ron
[09:16] {Threei}  gap up despite Italy downgrade and China banks stopping swap lines with Europe - genuinely bullish, or denial to be disillusioned, or just this particular event is priced in (Italy downgrade was pretty much given)?
[09:16] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:20] {dino} imo italy a given, china a surprise
[09:20] {Threei}  my feeling too
[09:20] {RonS} patience up early is the surprise...
[09:21] {RonS} :)
[09:21] {Threei}  well, ese broke her windows yesterday with his bricks...
[09:21] {Threei}  she is on guard today
[09:23] {Threei}  JEF CEO: August performance was 'brutal'; September trading results have improved - conf call comments
[09:23] {Threei}  I'd say, we did considerably better than jefferies
[09:25] {patience} painted my deck and side panels yesterday Ron.  Couldn't sleep my body is so sore from it so i might as well trade   :)   besides i took some big positions yesterday, wanted to see them pre-market.  
[09:26] {larisa} gm :)
[09:26] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:26] {larisa} vad :)
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  stop above .90 scalpers, 40 day traders
[09:33] {Threei}  out
[09:33] {Threei}  morning volatility is here
[09:34] {Threei}  letting it spike to look for the reversal
[09:34] {Threei}  probably above .30
[09:35] {Threei}  ideally, spike into .30 - .40 range with short setup on .30 recross while stays under .40
[09:35] {dino} 07 all red
[09:36] {Threei}  patience... your turn to throw stones in ese's windows
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  RIMM  .30 break half lot
[09:37] {Threei}  half out
[09:37] {Threei}  General Motors Corp Notes Chevy Volt electic vehicle will not qualify for Chinese govt incentive programs - press
[09:37] {Threei}  because it's not produced in china?
[09:38] {Threei}  out RIMM in full
[09:46] {Threei}  (GR) IMF comments on Greece: Country remains fully commited to staying in the Euro Zone
[09:46] {Threei}  sure
[09:48] {Threei}  tna
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[09:49] {Threei}  half lot
[09:49] {nemo} .19 stop?
[09:49] {Threei}  .25
[09:49] {Threei}  half out
[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .35
[09:50] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:51] {nemo} look for IWM bounce around .00 and spy around .05
[09:52] {Threei}  wanted TZA entry but closer to .60... it bottomed out a bit too high
[09:52] {nemo} spy and iwm at pivots
[09:52] {Threei}  daily?
[09:52] {nemo} weekly iwm daily spy
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break
[09:54] {Threei}  if stays above .70 of course
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  out in full
[10:00] {dino} gj
[10:00] {Threei}  ty
[10:00] {Threei}  3 for 3 so far
[10:00] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[10:00] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:01] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:01] {nemo} gold going through the roof
[10:01] {patience} oh happiness
[10:01] {dino} gpc sm l .48
[10:02] {Threei}  gold action tells me market in no way accepted that Europe situation becomes healthier
[10:02] {nemo} that's a big "Duh!"
[10:03] {Threei}  hey... don't trivialize my observations, they are trivial without your help {G}
[10:03] {Threei}  Captain Obvious, remember?
[10:04] {Threei}  the question raised because of bullish opening despite Italy
[10:04] {nemo} frickin' guineas
[10:09] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM.15  break
[10:09] {Threei}  half lot
[10:09] {Threei}  with adding another half on .10
[10:09] {Threei}  stop .25 for the first half
[10:09] {nemo} target 0?
[10:09] {Threei}  the way daily looks, pretty much, lol
[10:10] {dino} gpc stop -.30
[10:11] {Threei}  ideally we stay under .10 and .21 becomes a stop for a full lot
[10:11] {Threei}  under .20, sorry
[10:14] {Threei}  stopped
[10:16] {Threei}  (IT) S&P: Italy cannot solve its debt problems through privatization of assets
[10:16] {Threei}  through what then?
[10:17] {nemo} cutting fiscal spending
[10:17] {Threei}  that only takes care of not increasing the debt going forward
[10:17] {Threei}  S&P is talking about paying down existing
[10:18] {Threei}  and says selling assets is not going to suffi ce
[10:18] {nemo} if you spend less than you take in, you pay stuff down
[10:18] {Threei}  yeah... at this scale and rate, in the next 3000 years
[10:18] {Threei}  meanwhile rollover dates come
[10:18] {Threei}  and money isn't there
[10:19] {Threei}  and selling assets doesn't cover it
[10:19] {Threei}  see mine ( and S&P's) point? :)
[10:22] {Threei}  grrr
[10:22] {Threei}  RIMM rinse
[10:23] {Threei}  here is the number:
[10:23] {Threei}  - According to Goldman Sachs, Italy has to rollover about $380B in debt by the end of 2012.
[10:24] {Threei}  what S&P is saying, Italy cannot meet that by privatization
[10:24] {dino} mkt saying it doesn't matter so far today
[10:24] {Threei}  that was my morning question...
[10:24] {Threei}  what is with this strength - priced in? denial?
[10:25] {dino} today is key word
[10:27] {patience} locked in my profit with gdx and hgu....will just look for another entry point
[10:28] {dino} 1216 gap
[10:32] {dino} nflx -70 pts 4 days
[10:32] {Threei}  and shows no signs of bottoming
[10:32] {Threei}  sic transit gloria mundi
[10:40] {dino} gpc l .60
[10:47] {dino} out gpc .75, +.15
[10:48] {Threei}  easy money
[10:48] {Threei}  my favorite kind
[10:59] {dino} 1216 filled
[10:59] {Threei}  RIMM is losing support... short entry is not really obvious though
[11:03] {Threei}  ugh
[11:03] {Threei}  hate it when it rinses us, then works
[11:04] {dino} hls l .29
[11:06] {nemo} just got rinsed on MCP stopped out for the day
[11:12] {dino} cat sm s break .60
[11:13] {Threei}  hard to distinguish SPY action here
[11:13] {nemo} at trend line for the day
[11:13] {Threei}  looks reversing, but this kind of reversals proves to be very elusive lately
[11:14] {Threei}  I am not fond of idea to short it at will
[11:15] {dino} cat bstop is .81
[11:21] {dino} out hls .41, +.12
[11:26] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[11:26] {Threei}  if holding 40
[11:27] {dino} cov cat .30, +.30
[11:27] {Threei}  nice one
[11:28] {dino} ty
[11:28] {Threei}  despite extremely tight stop, target is fairly solid on FCX, about .35
[11:28] {Threei}  three partials
[11:31] {Threei}  no go
[11:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[11:45] {Threei}  stop under .60
[11:47] {Threei}  sigh
[11:47] {Threei}  why did't we go vback to sleep after first 3 wins?
[11:53] {Threei}  anyone breathes at all?
[11:53] {Threei}  or am I talking to myself?
[11:54] {patience} just in a scalp in hgu
[11:54] {RonS} hear here 3i
[11:55] {patience} out, ok, time for a run, awesome day
[11:56] {Threei}  one more dive TZA, and should be scalpable
[11:56] {Threei}  from around .10
[11:57] {nemo} unless this is the break of a bull flag
[11:57] {nemo} if we break resistance, 123.80 next target on spy
[11:58] {RonS} meli dino...
[12:01] {Threei}  nice TZA bounce but .20 wasn't really all that clear to me as an entry
[12:06] {dino} yeah
[12:08] {Threei}  this one seriously got away, uh?
[12:10] {dino} nemo, what do you see? down?
[12:11] {dino} sm s brk/b .34
[12:11] {nemo} dead people
[12:11] {dino} me too, lots of them
[12:11] {nemo} down to the 121.25 area
[12:12] {nemo} we
[12:12] {nemo} We
[12:12] {nemo} we're at premarket high at .38
[12:12] {dino} gut has us going to flat
[12:13] {nemo} .25 area has Monthly Pivot, VWAP and r1
[12:13] {dino} ty
[12:18] {Threei}  have to try TZA again
[12:18] {Threei}  .75
[12:19] {Threei}  SPY loss of .50 should do it
[12:19] {RonS} ...has anyone been looking at Dr. Copper? ...big negative divergence w/ this market...check out jjc daily
[12:19] {dino} predicting recession
[12:24] {Threei}  changing to .70 break
[12:27] {Threei}  still valid
[12:27] {Threei}  barely
[12:27] {Threei}  but
[12:27] {nemo} when's the Fed meeting start?
[12:28] {nemo} ya' know you could by a lot of both tza and tna and wait
[12:28] {Threei}  we will hear from them tomorrow
[12:28] {Threei}  2:15
[12:30] {dino} this twist idea may be holding up mrkt
[12:32] {Threei}  1:1
[12:37] {Threei}  out in full
[12:37] {Threei}  needed this win top reconsolidate morning gains
[12:44] {Threei}  underestimating potential of TZA today
[12:54] {RonS} V and MA made moves...axp next?
[12:55] {RonS} copper at low 3.72
[13:04] {dino}  brk/b stop -.02
[13:06] {Threei}  59% View Hillary Clinton Favorably
[13:06] {Threei}  buyers regret/
[13:07] {dino} ilmn drop
[13:09] {dino} sm l .95
[13:14] {dino} stop -.22
[13:18] {dino} ilmn sm l .45
[13:27] {dino} out ilmn .05, +.60
[13:28] {dino} cstr drop
[13:30] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor: Concept of 'economic growth at all costs' should end, was part of the cause of the recent debt crisis
[13:30] {Threei}  - Current crisis provides great opportunity to put debts in sustainable paths
[13:30] {Threei}  FITB
[13:30] {Threei}  didvidend increase
[13:31] {Threei}  nice daily...
[13:31] {Threei}  ese might be interested
[13:31] {Threei}  FITB used to be his stock
[13:31] {Threei}  in case senility takes over, someone remind me to tell him tomorrow when he is in
[13:33] {dino} nope
[13:41] {dino} cstr sm l .75
[13:42] {dino} stop -.30
[13:44] {dino} rinsed
[13:58] {dino} tzoo drop
[14:02] {nemo} big iwm volume this minute
[14:03] {nemo} guess I shoulda taken whichever way it went off that minute
[14:04] {Threei}  TZA spiked too
[14:04] {nemo} that was my point, that really high volume candle on IWM, take it whichever way it goes off of that
[14:05] {Threei}  lol... Brasil denies help yo EU
[14:05] {Threei}  as if iy was ever viable option
[14:11] {dino} joyg lod
[14:13] {dino} cyou sm l .00
[14:16] {dino} joyg sm l .00
[14:30] {nemo} wonder if we're getting into the pre-Fed chop
[14:30] {dino} y imo
[14:31] {dino} easing thru twist idea is supposed to be good for markets
[14:32] {dino} joyg stop -.26
[14:33] {Threei}  (US) PIMCO sees Fed funds market as negatively impacted if the Fed decides to cut interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) at meeting
[14:33] {Threei}  - PIMCO notes that a cut of the interest on excess reserves could hurt earnings margins for banks; PIMCO sees likelihood that Fed may instead choose to trim the IOER slightly rather than imposing a full cut from 25bps
[14:33] {Threei}  that was twisted idea anyway
[14:34] {dino} that and going longer term vs short to lower rates
[14:34] {dino} joyg messed up today
[14:35] {nemo} .30 vwap on spy .25 pivot on iwm, probably a bounce in that proximity
[14:36] {dino} ilmn sm l .51
[14:49] {Threei}  I'd expect hard pullback on TZA here, into .50 - .60 area where I'd be a buyer
[14:50] {nemo} spy sitting on monthly pivot iwm .10 above the Weekly pivot
[14:54] {nemo} this long setup is almost too obvious
[14:55] {nemo} hahh...guess it was so obvious it should have been taken
[14:55] {dino} out ilmn .91, +.40
[15:00] {dino} sina blood
[15:06] {Threei}  (GR) Troika officials said to plan to return to Athens in Oct to complete Greek review - press
[15:06] {Threei}  yikes
[15:06] {dino} ndx red
[15:06] {Threei}  sends market back in uncertainty
[15:07] {Threei}  positive day but i can't say i am happy with how i played it
[15:07] {dino} same here, bit light
[15:17] {patience} in pot and hgu
[15:19] {dino} ilmn sm l .35 stop .19
[15:22] {dino} stop
[15:23] {nemo} .11 tna would be a good bet
[15:23] {nemo} or right here spy
[15:24] {nemo} nope
[15:25] {Threei}  remarkable weakness
[15:27] {Threei}  this is what I am really unhappy about: I weaited for this weaknedd, believed it had to come, yet haven't found right entry
[15:29] {Threei}  I guess that slow climb and then really long consolidation near the high kind of lulled me
[15:31] {dino} gr
[15:34] {Threei}  take a look at Italy CDS
[15:34] {Threei}  http://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
[15:34] {Threei}  this is closing in on point of no return
[15:36] {Threei}  GR news dinop
[15:36] {Threei}  Goodrich Corp UTX said to be in late stage discussions on final terms of deal with Goodrich - financial press
[15:41] {patience} added anv, xgd, iag
[15:42] {Threei}  SVM ginishes with nice strenght
[15:42] {Threei}  finishes even
[15:42] {Threei}  remember swing trade chart
[15:42] {dino} tzoo blood
[15:46] {Threei}  wow
[15:47] {Threei}  who would have thought SPY goes red by the end of the day
[15:47] {Threei}  good... we should get some good ones tomorrow morning, befofe market goes dead in waiting for Fed
[15:47] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:47] {Threei}  have a great evening
[15:47] {larisa} bye :)
[15:48] {Threei}  see you tomorrow bright and early
[15:48] {Threei}  or how you look in the morning
[15:50] {patience} added gg, more gdx - long term account
[15:51] {patience} ty vad