Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Sep 21 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Who said FOMC days are not good for trading? Beautiful day with just one stop, and quite a few nice trades, including couple beauties on TZA. Do read the log to track those trades; as far as charts are concerned let me post an update for the SVM swing trade. As you see from updated chart below, a trade triggered at 7.25 today, confirming double bottom. Volume looks decent as well. What concerns me though is general market climate - end of day selling hit SVM based on general market selloff. So, we are in a situation where on its own, SVM looks ready to go up in positive or neutral market; whether it's capable of holding in negative or crashing one, remains to be seen.

Session Time: Wed Sep 21 00:00:00 2011
[09:14] {dino} gm all
[09:14] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {nemo} for you dino:
[09:14] {nemo} piece of work that boy
[09:15] {ese} gm
[09:16] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:17] {Threei}  ese, meant to show you a stock you may want to monitor
[09:17] {Threei}  look at FITB daily
[09:18] {ese} theres a blast from the past
[09:18] {Threei}  thought you'd recognize it :)
[09:18] {Threei}  announced didvidend increase yesterday
[09:19] {ese} pretty solid base....and dividend to bot
[09:19] {ese} boot
[09:19] {Threei}  daiuly to me looks like 10.80 - 11 zone breakout for long play
[09:19] {ese} me as well
[09:19] {dino} that rex is a piece of work
[09:19] {Threei}  just make sure Europe doesn't collapse, lol
[09:20] {Threei}  that'll put a kibosh on financial stocks
[09:21] {ese} Greeks were talkin yesterday...finally something happening...German economists say double dip recession not likely in Germany.....things are lookin up
[09:21] {dino} i/m not as confident as you
[09:21] {ese} Greeks won't default looks like
[09:21] {Threei}  I really doubt that optimistic view
[09:22] {dino} gut says they must
[09:22] {nemo} define default
[09:22] {Threei}  they are trying to keep brave face
[09:22] {nemo} they'll just dress it up and call it something leaving the euro
[09:22] {ese} it's "de" "fault" of the Greeks
[09:22] {Threei}  math just doesn't work, ese
[09:23] {Threei}  Greece can't repay debt, no matter what
[09:23] {Threei}  and look at Italy CDS spread, to see how much realism is under that optimism
[09:23] {ese} anyway.....articles in "" yesterday....
[09:24] {Threei}
[09:25] {ese} link not working
[09:26] {Threei}  works for me...
[09:27] {Threei}  anyway, Italy 5-yr is at 513
[09:27] {dino} ok now that we have broken ese' optimism, back to work
[09:27] {Threei}  this is borderline "point of no return" IMO
[09:27] {ese} lol
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX is on watch as short candidate
[09:28] {ese} link working now
[09:28] {Threei}  remember the opening volatility
[09:28] {larisa} gm :)
[09:28] {Threei}  larisa :)
[09:29] {Threei}  from the look of things, morning spike can take it into .40 - .50 territory where it's bound to be a short
[09:29] {Threei}  if it breaks down instead, let's wait
[09:30] {Threei}  total breakdown
[09:31] {Threei}  becomes bounce candidate
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:31] {Threei}  stop under .15
[09:32] {Threei}  in
[09:32] {nemo} you can have it
[09:32] {Threei}  ty
[09:32] {Threei}  not ready yet, out
[09:33] {patience} ty fcx vad, haven't even had first cup of coffee yet, amazing
[09:33] {ese} L orcl .50
[09:34] {Threei}  .15 break second try
[09:34] {ese} sm
[09:34] {Threei}  if holding 37
[09:34] {Threei}  half lot!
[09:34] {Threei}  target .60
[09:34] {Threei}  half out
[09:34] {Threei}  stop to .10
[09:36] {ese} L orcl avg .42
[09:37] {Threei}  stop to .25
[09:38] {Threei}  out second half
[09:38] {nemo} you see that buy on the offer go buy at .35?
[09:38] {Threei}  +.23 and .10
[09:38] {nemo} 1275 lots
[09:39] {ese} stopped orcl .21-.22
[09:39] {ese} knew i shoulda waited
[09:39] {Threei}  bought into sharp spike, ese...
[09:40] {ese} ya
[09:40] {Threei}  ORCL is a very heavy stock, not really a momo that can easily continue after spikes
[09:41] {ese} not something i do normally ......thought taht with the earnings report it had 31 in it
[09:41] {Threei}  (US) Preview: Aug Existing Home Sales due out at 10:00ET
[09:41] {Threei}  **Consensus expectation: 4.75Me v 4.67M prior
[09:41] {Threei}  it very well may but not in one gasp
[09:41] {ese} agreed
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break if stays under .30
[09:44] {Threei}  half out
[09:45] {ese} L orcl .25
[09:45] {Threei}  should lose 37 now
[09:45] {Threei}  stop to .25 for the balance
[09:47] {Threei}  ok FCX
[09:47] {Threei}  let's do it
[09:47] {Threei}  'cause you know... bees do it
[09:49] {Threei}  good boy
[09:50] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:50] {Threei}  stop to .21
[09:52] {Threei}  grrrrr
[09:52] {Threei}  targeted RIMM short on .25 break
[09:52] {Threei}  and missed it because of FCX bresakdown at the same moment
[09:54] {Threei}  let's trail last piece to .16
[09:55] {ese} out orcl 1/2  .35 +.10
[09:55] {ese} balance to .26
[09:56] {patience} in slw
[09:58] {Threei}  numbers are coming
[09:59] {dino} titn sm l .00
[09:59] {ese} orcl stopped balance .26
[10:00] {dino} cyou sm l .90
[10:00] {ese} hmmm shoulda rang the register at .40 would have been a nice day
[10:00] {Threei}  decent number
[10:00] {dino} gpc sm l .11
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.03M V 4.75ME
[10:01] {Threei}  closed FCX
[10:02] {dino} ssys sm l .00 thinny
[10:09] {Threei}  watching LVS
[10:10] {ese} L orcl .23
[10:11] {Threei}  FCX, did you have to shake out last portion before continuing down?
[10:11] {nemo} it traded to vwap and dropped
[10:11] {Threei}  I overtightened stop?
[10:12] {nemo} guess I should have opened my mouth, I saw VWAP up there, and that's a magnet for price action
[10:12] {ese} out 1/2 orcl .30 +.07
[10:12] {nemo} couldn't figure out how to work it into an insult
[10:12] {Threei}  ahhh
[10:12] {ese} balance stopped .24
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[10:13] {Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:13] {Threei}  oops
[10:13] {Threei}  sorry, confused symbols
[10:13] {Threei}  LVS
[10:13] {dino} fcx, cat, joyg, ilmn, major blood two days
[10:13] {Threei}  invalidated anyway
[10:14] {Threei}  bond market prices Greece default probability at 96%
[10:15] {dino} ilmn sm l .50
[10:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .50 break if holding .40
[10:16] {Threei}  FCX, what a bottmoless pit
[10:16] {Threei}  LVS, target 1:3
[10:16] {Threei}  standard procedure
[10:16] {ese} specially fcx dino
[10:16] {ese} with a gap dn no less
[10:17] {ese} sorry 2 gaps dn
[10:17] {ese} have that on my screen
[10:17] {ese} got a plan for those
[10:18] {Threei}  1:1
[10:18] {dino} understand
[10:19] {ese} lol
[10:22] {Threei}  probably time for FCX bounce
[10:24] {Threei}  got away... thought of .50 break but happened a bit too fast
[10:24] {Threei}  let's see if oulls back for entry
[10:24] {Threei}  OK
[10:24] {Threei}  drop under .50,
[10:24] {Threei}  holding above .40,
[10:24] {Threei}  .50 recross
[10:24] {Threei}  that would be my long setup from here
[10:26] {Threei}  here we go
[10:27] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:30] {dino} ssys stop -.33
[10:30] {dino} ilmn stop -.33
[10:31] {Threei}  oil inventories...
[10:31] {Threei}  *DOE CRUDE: -7.33M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +3.3M V +1ME; DISTILLATE: -875K V +1ME; UTILIZATION: 88.3% V 86.6%E
[10:31] {Threei}  USO through the roof
[10:31] {Threei}  lunacy
[10:32] {dino} joyg -8 in two days
[10:32] {nemo} bfd crude down, OPEC cuts forcast last week, refineries have switched over to producing heating oil and gas way up...too frickin' funny
[10:33] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:33] {Threei}  reaction to these weekly numbers is one of the most meaningless I see in the markets
[10:33] {nemo} have a feeling it's a Wile E. Coyote moment and will retrace
[10:33] {nemo} not to those making money on it
[10:33] {Threei}  or least meaningful?
[10:36] {Threei}  FCX doesn't follow market down anymore
[10:37] {Threei}  not ready to jump in, but watching carefully
[10:37] {nemo} tired from dropping for four days...cant keep up
[10:37] {patience} in long fcx
[10:37] {Threei}  hehe
[10:37] {Threei}  why rush
[10:37] {Threei}  no clear signal yet
[10:37] {patience} no kidding
[10:39] {dino} joyg sm l .90
[10:40] {ese} L orcl .20
[10:44] {ese} out 1/2 orcl .40 +.20
[10:45] {Threei}  missed another LVS setup
[10:45] {dino} gj
[10:46] {Threei}  .30 break.. see tose two dojis?
[10:46] {ese} out balance .49 +.29
[10:46] {ese} orcl
[10:46] {ese} tks dino
[10:46] {ese} that was a crap load of shs
[10:47] {ese} haven't done that for a bit
[10:48] {nemo} rrc
[10:48] {dino} t/o chatter
[10:49] {Threei}  ok, let's try to get LVS this time
[10:51] {ese} am outta here....have a great rest of the day.....
[10:51] {Threei}  one more leg down, consolidation between .10 and .20 and cross
[10:51] {patience} bye ese
[10:51] {Threei}  take care ese, gj
[10:51] {ese} cya vad patience
[10:51] {dino} cya ese
[10:51] {ese} dino
[10:51] {nemo} spy if doesn't hold .45 going to .20 area
[10:52] {nemo} this also spy premarket low
[10:53] {dino} ndx filled open gap
[10:56] {nemo} pre market low for IWM might get some tail wagging the dog here
[10:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break if holding .10
[10:58] {patience} ok, who thinks the fed will open up their discount window wide today and lend money to banks at very favourable terms?
[10:59] {Threei}  1:1
[10:59] {nemo} how much more favorable can it get
[11:00] {dino} window is open
[11:00] {Threei}  1:2
[11:00] {Threei}  1:3
[11:00] {dino} gj
[11:00] {Threei}  ty
[11:00] {Threei}  we had what, 1 stop today?
[11:00] {patience} it is, but narrow elegibility gets loosened?
[11:01] {Threei}  the rest worked like charm?
[11:02] {dino} we are already flooding the euro block w/$. but yes i think twist happens, going loner term to lower long term rates
[11:08] {Threei}  midday update:
[11:08] {Threei}  The FOMC rate decision will arrive mid afternoon and investors are debating the chances that Helicopter Ben will greenlight Operation Twist. In Europe, equity markets are at their lows as traders worry about the banking system. Earlier this morning, Greece Finance Minister Venizelos warned that there is a danger that reform program might fail and Lloyd's of London said it had decided to pull peripheral euro bank deposits.
[11:09] {Threei}  Note that the August existing home sales hit their highest rate since early 2009, however analysts agree that the slightly better numbers were driven by a sudden jump in foreclosure and resale activity. Treasury markets are trending higher as money comes out of stocks and the US 10-year yield has slipped back toward 1.9%.
[11:09] {Threei}  I dunno where ese finds that optimism...
[11:10] {dino} nor i
[11:10] {Threei}  Overall the greenback remained range bound ahead of the FOMC decision later today. Dealers suspect the dollar could weaken further if the Fed announces any new QE measures. EUR/USD recovered from session lows during the New York morning aided by speculation that the French government might take measures to restore confidence in its banking sector coupled with ECB widening the range of debt instruments accepted as collateral.
[11:11] {Threei}  Dealers did note that the ECB action on collateral actually lowered its quality control. The market still awaiting Greece to outline its austerity measures negotiated with the Troika in recent days
[11:17] {Threei}  wow LVS
[11:17] {nemo} hpq
[11:17] {Threei}  how come I never forget last couple hundred shares
[11:18] {RonS} may be leo out at hpq
[11:19] {RonS} Bloomberg confirms boards wants CEO out $HPQ
[11:19] {Threei}  Hewlett-Packard Co Board evaluating firing CEO Apotheker in favor of Whitman as successor - financial press
[11:20] {Threei}  and this sends a stock up a dollar?
[11:20] {Threei}  and half
[11:29] {Threei}  SVM
[11:30] {Threei}  who saw a chart for a swing trade a few days ago, see it breaking out
[11:30] {Threei}  I posted quick update on facebook, will add after close
[11:30] {dino} ilmn sm l .00 wide
[11:38] {Threei}  White House said to have informed Congress of planned $5.3B upgrade of Taiwan's existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets
[11:38] {Threei}  - Northrop Grumman and Raytheon are said to be expected to compete to build new radar systems for Taiwan's F-16s.
[11:38] {Threei}  sigh
[11:47] {RonS} ilmn brightly burning...
[11:47] {nemo} wow....
[11:50] {dino} kicked me in the azz
[11:56] {nemo} see the link I posted for you this morning Dino?
[11:57] {dino} on rex? yes
[11:57] {nemo} I like the guy
[11:57] {dino} me too, he fits ny market
[11:58] {nemo} cracks me up, foot fetish, cries watching chick flicks...
[11:58] {nemo} He'd be alot of fun to drink with
[11:58] {dino} indeed, lol
[12:08] {patience} out fcx, nice run  +.71
[12:09] {Threei}  gj
[12:09] {patience} connection went down during trade, i hate that
[12:09] {Threei}  look at LVS chart and see where we got it long
[12:09] {Threei}  pretty much near the low of the day
[12:11] {dino} market stuck in range
[12:15] {dino} wow ilmn what a rinse job
[12:22] {dino} sm l ilmn .00, last try
[12:27] {Threei}  Moody BAC downgrade
[12:27] {Threei}  kills the market
[12:29] {Threei}  nice jub Buffet
[12:29] {Threei}  job
[12:30] {RonS} qotd:  why should i care about a buffet tax. i never eat at one.
[12:31] {Threei}  lol
[12:31] {dino} lol
[12:36] {dino} bac preferred getting hit
[12:39] {nemo} I find the coincidence between the downgrade and BennieB intriguing
[12:40] {Threei}  think setting up the scene for Fed action?
[12:40] {nemo} whack the longs, come in and buy
[12:42] {patience} out of    i forgot how wingy some of these stocks can be to trade....too much work    +.62
[12:48] {nemo} hpq again
[12:48] {Threei}  reconsiders spin-off of PC business
[12:52] {patience} sold everything but POT
[12:52] {patience} excellent day...will sit and wait
[12:58] {Threei}  Moody's cuts WFC
[12:58] {Threei}  and C
[12:58] {Threei}  they are on the roll today
[12:59] {Threei}  a roll?
[12:59] {Threei}  just roll?
[12:59] {Threei}  why do you english speakers need those a and the, no idea
[13:00] {RonS} freakin a, eh?
[13:00] {Threei}  the freakin a
[13:02] {dino} ahole, lol
[13:05] {dino} giddy-up
[13:19] {dino} joyg to .84
[13:24] {dino} out .96, +1.06
[13:25] {RonS} gj
[13:25] {patience} very nice
[13:26] {Threei}  great one
[13:26] {dino} ty took hours
[13:26] {patience} very patient  :)
[13:27] {dino} ;)
[13:28] {Threei}  Coolest searching device ever? Your toe! Always able to, somehow, find furniture even when it is pitch black
[13:29] {dino} yeah, been there
[13:32] {Threei}  so, 74% of ecinomists expect operation Twist, 61 says it won't work
[13:33] {Threei}  the rest 39 are clueless I guess
[13:54] {Threei}  total stall
[13:55] {patience} what time do we hear anything?
[13:56] {dino}  2:15
[13:56] {patience} ty
[14:00] {nemo} regn
[14:01] {dino} regn spike
[14:02] {nemo} dino...look above
[14:02] {dino} ilmn out .30, +.30
[14:02] {Threei}  halt
[14:02] {nemo} that sucks
[14:02] {patience} nice day for you dino
[14:02] {dino} average, had few stops earlier
[14:05] {nemo} indexes look like they're setting up for screaming longs
[14:07] {Threei}  here is summary for expectations:
[14:07] {Threei}
[14:07] {Threei}  too long to paste it all here
[14:07] {dino} va drops avastin
[14:08] {Threei}  passive twist, active twist... as if all these monetary tweaks really can change the ways of economy
[14:08] {Threei}  more they tweak, worse it gets
[14:08] {Threei}  get the ^%#* out of the way
[14:09] {dino} john galt i presume
[14:09] {Threei}  :)
[14:10] {nemo} it's between a rock and a hard place...they get out of the way, and it's gonna' get rocky sooner, they don't get out of the way, it get's rocky a little later
[14:10] {Threei}  but there is a difference in the degree of rockiness
[14:10] {Threei}  the later it comes the rockier it gets
[14:10] {nemo} I don't think so...I think sooner or lated serious civil unrest
[14:11] {dino} they stretch it out to save themselves, not do what is needed
[14:11] {nemo} I don't think it can be avoided
[14:11] {patience} bought td bank
[14:13] {RonS} regn 7 mil sh short...lit up...
[14:13] {dino} right now they are fighting over who pays for lunch
[14:17] {Threei}  fashinably late?
[14:17] {Threei}  +o
[14:20] {RonS} who does the clam think he is?...O?
[14:20] {Threei}  lol
[14:20] {RonS} soory...0
[14:22] {Threei}  potato, potatoe
[14:23] {dino} out
[14:23] {dino} 07 green
[14:23] {Threei}  ok
[14:23] {Threei}  here it comes
[14:24] {dino} now red
[14:24] {RonS} twisted sister
[14:25] {Threei}  active twist
[14:25] {Threei}  market says eeeeck
[14:25] {RonS} chubby checker to head operation...
[14:25] {dino} what'd he do?
[14:26] {Threei}  Fed to buy $400B in long term treasuries (6-30 year range) by end of June 2012
[14:28] {RonS} copper tanked
[14:28] {dino} pru sm l .79
[14:29] {RonS} wow, three dissenters
[14:30] {dino} re-liquify
[14:44] {dino} meli sm l .10
[14:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .35 break
[14:49] {Threei}  half lot
[14:49] {Threei}  invalidated
[14:50] {Threei}  .20 break
[14:53] {nemo} spy likely going for .20, look for tza there
[14:55] {Threei}  half out
[14:55] {Threei}  stop to .15
[14:56] {Threei}  out in full
[14:56] {Threei}  +.40
[14:59] {patience} nice
[15:00] {dino} gj
[15:00] {Threei}  ty
[15:05] {dino} out meli .15, +1.05
[15:16] {Threei}  nice!
[15:17] {dino} ty
[15:17] {patience} very nice
[15:21] {dino} ty
[15:29] {Threei}  so... last plunge is coming?
[15:29] {patience} i'm lost here, can't tell
[15:29] {Threei}  half lot long TZA .90
[15:29] {Threei}  if stays abovce .75
[15:30] {dino} gut says up
[15:30] {Threei}  valid still
[15:31] {Threei}  in
[15:32] {Threei}  half out
[15:32] {Threei}  stop to .85
[15:34] {Threei}  I don't remember having such a nice day on FOMC date
[15:34] {patience} i agree
[15:34] {dino} lod
[15:34] {Threei}  boom TZA
[15:34] {dino} whippy
[15:35] {dino} 11246 gap filled
[15:35] {Threei}  out +.60
[15:36] {dino} nice
[15:38] {dino} hmmm so far you are right, plunge
[15:39] {Threei}  panic
[15:39] {Threei}  crash
06[15:39] * Threei slants at larisa
[15:40] {Threei}  -(IT) Italy confirms FY11 GDP target cut to 0.7% from 1.1%
[15:55] {Threei}  what an ugly end
[15:56] {patience} should be interesting overnight trading
[15:56] {Threei}  ok guys, I believe we handled today beautifully
[15:56] {patience} ty vad
[15:56] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[15:57] {dino} cya
[15:57] {larisa} bye :)