Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Nemo's Findings - Mid-week update

SPY multi-time frame mid-week review week of 9/18

These observations are made on the 5 minute time-frame at the end of each day. 

1.      Monday we gapped down on the open from the S2 daily/ S2 quarterly level

2.      and proceeded down to touch the 50% retracement of the July 2010 bottom, which became the low for the day.  The market then proceeded to a high around noon and retraced to fuzzy support at the weekly pivot point.

3.      After breaking above VWAP, SPY then gapped down just after 2:00 pm to test $.04 above the weekly pivot point before heading higher.  One might argue that this candle combination (big down candle followed by a larger green candle) may have been a stop buster.  Many programs will go long above the VWAP, by breaking below the VWAP, it may have triggered stops that then triggered buying just above the WPP that was the highest volume since before noon. Forming another swing high, SPY retraced to VWAP before...

4.      peaking at was, on that day at the confluence of a price action from 9/2 and the Quarterly S2 level (established July 1st). It was also the same price level as an intermediary daily pivot level, that which is in between (in this instance the Daily Pivot and Daily S1)

5.      Tuesday we open, after the overnight rollercoaster of the Italian downgrade, at the same level as #4 and continues to retrace to the daily pivot before proceeding to rally to the price high from last Friday.  Meandering about for the afternoon, levels began to drop

6.      until it found support, albeit only for 20 minutes at the Monthly Pivot Point where it retraced only to continue it's  descent until...

7.      reaching the 38.2% retracement of the 8/9 swing low where it loosely double bottomed and retraced before continuing it's downward movement toward the pivot point into the close

8.      Wednesday (Awaiting the Bearded one)  price action first found support at the break out area from Monday, which coincided with Monday's daily pivot.  (I don't put the daily pivots on the multi-time frame analysis because they, well, change daily...)

9.      Proceeding down to the Semester S2 support SPY bounced for 10 minutes until..

10.   it continued it's descent to the Weekly Pivot point, where it formed a double bottom, and rose to regain support of Semester S2 ( didn't  quite make it to the WPP, ;))
11.  After the Bernanke siesta, SPY continued downward bouncing at the 50% retracement of the July '10 bottom/daily S2, then retracing to VWAP...
12.  Before reaching a subjective price level at 118.10 that first began having significance back on the 29th of August (arguably the 24th), then retracing again to the WPP before...
13.  the final denouement that found it closing out between the 23.6% retracement from the 8/9 low and the Weekly S1.