Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Oct 04 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

The day progressed well, with just one stop and a lot of nice trades. Good start to the month so far. Just so you don't think I lost my touch while traveling or speaking... :) Catch of the Day:

RIMM proceeded even lower after our cover, but lunch time trading rarely calls for extended moves.

Session Time: Tue Oct 04 00:00:00 2011
[08:49] {Threei}  Good morning
[08:50] {Threei}  how are things here, in valley?
[08:51] {nemo} internet unstable today
[08:51] {Threei}  I saw your connection timing out
[08:55] {Threei}  so, you guys observed nicely shaped market crash
[08:55] {Threei}  and I wasn't here to use words crash and panic and irritate the living daylight out of larisa...
[08:56] {patience} are we there yet?
[08:56] {Threei}  reversal?
[08:56] {patience} no, whistler  :)
[08:57] {patience} how was it
[08:57] {Threei}  ah
[08:57] {Threei}  fantastic
[08:57] {patience} terrific
[08:57] {Threei}  one of the most scenic rides I've ever seen
[08:57] {patience} yes it is
[08:57] {Threei}  on par with road to Hana or Oregon coast
[08:58] {patience} you took the occasional photo?
[08:58] {Threei}  of course
[08:58] {Threei}  stopped at all the waterfalls
[08:58] {Threei}  village itself is very cute
[09:05] {Threei}  Deutsche Bank warns it will not meet its 2011 operating profit target of 10bn
[09:07] {RonS} gm...how bad was yesterday?  337 issues were down more than 10%...
[09:07] {Threei}  hi Ron
[09:08] {Threei}  was it tradeable?
[09:08] {RonS} hello...did you wow them on Sunday?
[09:08] {Threei}  standing ovation
[09:09] {RonS} it was very whippy...wonderful on the ovation...
[09:09] {Threei}  well... that came when I finished, so who knpws, maybe people were just happy it was over
[09:10] {Threei}  but by the criteria of no one falling asleep or leaving during presentation from 9 to 4... I guess it was good :)
[09:11] {RonS} ended w/ slight positive but felt like coming out unscathed after a fire fight was a win...
[09:11] {dino} gm all
[09:12] {dino} it was tough in afternoon, 100 + pt moves in minutes
[09:12] {RonS} how could anyone fall asleep when they were constantly interpreting you accent w/ what did he say?
[09:12] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:12] {RonS} :D
[09:12] {dino} :)
[09:13] {Threei}  no, accent was fine... but when I suddenly realized that fro the last 10 min I spoke russian, I had to repeat myself :)
[09:13] {RonS} lol
[09:14] {Threei}  kidding... it was quite good all throughout
[09:14] {Threei}  active participation by the audience
[09:14] {Threei}  and we moved through some of topics unusually fast, which meant folks were beter prepared than average
[09:19] {dino} glad it went well. my conference starts tomorrow, on the golf course
[09:19] {Threei}  :)
[09:20] {Threei}  I see FCX held decently yesterday
[09:22] {Threei}  ended at the low, but the drop is quite restrained in comparison with market overall
[09:23] {Threei}  not jumping on it right away, but certainly keeping on a radar
[09:23] {dino} looking for my dow 10k hat
[09:24] {Threei}  wow really... I didn't realize we are that far down
[09:24] {larisa} gm :)
[09:24] {Threei}  all support levels got broken
[09:24] {Threei}  larisa!! :)
[09:24] {dino} yes
[09:24] {Threei}  can you believe what opportunity I missed over these two days?
[09:24] {dino} getting my moneys' worh out of that hat
[09:24] {Threei}  [08:55] {Threei} so, you guys observed nicely shaped market crash
[09:24] {Threei}  [08:55] {Threei} and I wasn't here to use words crash and panic and irritate the living daylight out of larisa...
[09:26] {larisa} I do not let people irritate me, I just ignore or leave :)
[09:27] {Threei}  oh, that's why nemo is leaving every few minutes
[09:28] {Threei}  a few folks are out this morning I see...
[09:29] {Threei}  OK... watching FCX for long setup
[09:29] {Threei}  not rushing in, let's let first spikes work themselves out
[09:30] {Threei}  prepare half lot, let's see if we get good pullback
[09:31] {Threei}  ideally, under .30 but holding above .20
[09:33] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .20 break
[09:33] {Threei}  if stays under .30
[09:33] {Threei}  lol
[09:33] {Threei}  invalidated, and no chance for entry on a long side
[09:34] {Threei}  OK, FCX
[09:34] {dino}  meli flat, titn positive
[09:34] {dino} nxpi too
[09:34] {Threei}  if you grabbed it there, 1:1
[09:35] {dino} nvda holds well
[09:35] {Threei}  if not, do not go second chance
[09:35] {Threei}  if it goea under .30 again, most likely to lose support this time
[09:36] {Threei}  hmm.. wait, disregard SLW comment
[09:36] {Threei}  wrong quote
[09:36] {Threei}  too many stocks at the screen
[09:38] {Threei}  no news for this spike
[09:39] {Threei}  watching LVS fopr pullback entry
[09:40] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .20 break
[09:40] {Threei}  1:1
[09:41] {Threei}  faster than I could indicate stop level
[09:41] {dino} nvda l .75
[09:41] {Threei}  no second entry
[09:41] {Threei}  wait for more drop
[09:42] {Threei}  between .70 and .80
[09:42] {Threei}  FCX
[09:42] {Threei}  interested again
[09:42] {Threei}  no clear entry yet
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .80 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if holding .70
[09:43] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .25 break
[09:44] {Threei}  stop under .15
[09:46] {dino} stop nvda -.01
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to under .20
[09:46] {Threei}  takes too long
[09:47] {Threei}  let's keep it tighter
[09:47] {dino} ron, meli
[09:47] {Threei}  1:1
[09:47] {Threei}  1:2
[09:47] {dino} nxpi l .37
[09:47] {Threei}  1:3, out
[09:47] {dino} nvda l .75
[09:48] {Threei}  this one was finally easy enough to execute
[09:48] {Threei}  LVS got away meanwhile
[09:48] {Threei}  RIMM
[09:48] {Threei}  Research in Motion Ltd Strength attributed to chatter RIMM has hired an advisor to consider strategic alternatives
[09:49] {dino} about time
[09:49] {Threei}  no kidding, lol
[09:49] {dino} rimm and hp boards blow
[09:51] {dino} chk gap fill dec
[09:52] {dino} out nvda .80 +.05
[09:52] {dino} out nxpi .28 -.-9
[09:52] {dino} -.09
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .30 break
[09:54] {Threei}  stop under .20
[09:55] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1?
[09:56] {Threei}  come on
[09:56] {dino} ndx gap 2044
[09:56] {Threei}  Ben to speak at 10
[09:56] {Threei}  out FCX, oversat this time
[09:58] {dino} re-liquify talk perhaps
[09:59] {Threei}  feels like denial time is over, market finally realized greece is done and nothing can be done about that
[09:59] {dino} agreed, greece is to be cut off
[10:00] {dino} sucker bankers to be nationalized
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) AUG FACTORY ORDERS: -0.2% V 0.0%E
[10:00] {Threei}  ben is on
[10:00] {Threei}  (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed is ready to take more steps to aid the US economy - testimony Before JEC
[10:00] {Threei}  and that sends market up
[10:00] {dino} qe3
[10:01] {Threei}  sigh
[10:01] {Threei}  guy is criminal
[10:01] {dino} salvation thru inflation
[10:01] {dino} thats all they know
[10:01] {RonS} wow that fcx bar...
[10:01] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:02] {dino} nxpi l .13
[10:02] {dino} meli sm l .50
[10:02] {Threei}  (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Fed is ready to take more steps to aid the US economy; urges lawmakers to take action, calls fostering a healthy economy a "shared responsibility" - testimony Before JEC
[10:02] {Threei}  - Govt sector weakness will be a drag on the US economy
[10:02] {Threei}  - Fiscal policy is of critical importance to the economy
[10:02] {Threei}  - Recovery has been much less robust than expected, European crisis remains an ongoing risk.
[10:02] {Threei}  - Elevated inflation seen in the first half of 2011 is not likely to persist
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[10:04] {dino} serious blood in oil patch
[10:04] {Threei}  stop above .40
[10:05] {Threei}  1:1
[10:05] {Threei}  thought of another short FCX but decided to sit out this volatility
[10:07] {dino} nxpi to .43
[10:08] {dino} to .46
[10:10] {dino} chk l .75
[10:10] {dino} nxpi to .53
[10:11] {dino} out nxpi .53, +.40
[10:12] {dino} out chk .out chk .92, +.17
[10:17] {Threei}  nice sniping
[10:18] {Threei}  (US) House of Reps' Brady (R-TX) planning to recommend Fed only be obliged to focus on price stability, removing mandate for employment; calls for the Fed to manage the dollar policy- Brady serves on the Ways and Means committee
[10:18] {Threei}  CLWR halt
[10:18] {Threei}  circuit breaker
[10:19] {dino} csh l .95
[10:22] {dino} csh stop -.15
[10:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
[10:23] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:24] {thomcbell} vad that slw setup gets invalidated when the 27.40 reaction low was lost?
[10:24] {Threei}  pretty muhc, yes
[10:24] {Threei}  see a few bars prior, all bottoming right above that support?
[10:25] {Threei}  that's what formed the consolidation range to break
[10:25] {Threei}  with clear resistance at .50 since about 10 am
[10:25] {Threei}  so loss of that support rendered setup invalid
[10:26] {Threei}  although the break of .50 remains lucrative, so let's see if that setup reestablishes itself
[10:26] {dino} whipping around 100 pt range in minutes
[10:28] {Threei}  amazing, isn't it
[10:28] {dino} yes
[10:28] {dino} and dangerous
[10:29] {thomcbell} tu
[10:33] {Threei}  wow
[10:33] {Threei}  FCX lost its mind?
[10:34] {dino} jjc up w.it
[10:34] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  30 break half lot
[10:35] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[10:35] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:37] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:37] {Threei}  (US) New Jersey Gov Christie said to be preparing to state that he will not run for the Republican presidential nomination - ABC News
[10:37] {Threei}  for what, 17th time?
[10:37] {z} at least
[10:39] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .20 break half lot
[10:39] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:39] {Threei}  lol
[10:40] {Threei}  hah
[10:40] {Threei}  (US) House of Reps said to have reached enough co sponsors that could theoretically allow passage of the China currency bill
[10:40] {Threei}  tensions rise
[10:41] {dino} idiots
[10:41] {RonS} idiocy runs unabated
[10:42] {dino} 07 all green
[10:42] {Threei}  in tought times you need clearly defined enemy...
[10:43] {Threei}  china fits the bill
[10:43] {dino} remember smoot hawley
[10:43] {dino} cat sm l.75
[10:45] {dino} out cat .10, +.35
[10:45] {dino} out meli .22, +.72
[10:46] {dino} ax murderer market
[10:46] {Threei}  nice trades
[10:46] {dino} ty
[10:48] {nemo} definitely router problem
[10:49] {Threei}  back now?
[10:49] {nemo} for the time being...hooked directly into the modem
[10:49] {Threei}  right
[10:51] {RonS} ugh nvda
[10:53] {dino} see it
[10:53] {dino} look meli too
[10:53] {dino} still feels "untrusting" meyers/ax murderer
[10:54] {dino} gold whack a mole
[11:12] {nemo} watch for spy fade here
[11:15] {RonS} akam sm s .10
[11:17] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 reak
[11:18] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[11:18] {dino} taking a break, back in 30 or so
[11:19] {Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {Threei}  1:2
[11:28] {RonS} stop akam -.10
[11:35] {RonS} nuts akam rinse
[11:41] {nemo} might be looking at tna long here
[11:43] {Threei}  can't tell if it's a mini-reversal or we still slide down
[11:49] {thomcbell} slw Vad? thru 27.04
[11:49] {Threei}  hard to tell
[11:49] {Threei}  chart itself looks right
[11:49] {Threei}  but there is no conviction
[11:49] {Threei}  feels a bit jellyoish
[11:50] {thomcbell} whole market is refuse
[11:50] {thomcbell} disgusting
[11:51] {nemo} imo, don't have that opinion, will color your reads...who cares which way it goes
[11:52] {thomcbell} i know i know - im almost there - 12 years of bad habits
[11:52] {thomcbell} being excorcised by my Taoist readings
[11:52] {nemo} o.k. momentum weakening looking for DT on spy
[11:53] {nemo} possessed are u?  Got just the guy
[12:00] {Threei}  if it were in my power, I'd make A taoist Trader required reading for anyone involved with markets
[12:00] {Threei}  of course I am hardly objective in this matter, lol
[12:14] {dino} what'd i miss
[12:15] {Threei}  were you out?
[12:15] {Threei}  :)
[12:15] {Threei}  nothing much
[12:15] {Threei}  slow up and down with no tradeable rythm
[12:16] {dino} sure know how to make a guy feel missed
[12:18] {Threei}  it's nemo's fault
[12:18] {Threei}  he calls me meanie and says I must maintain this reputation
[12:18] {Threei}  and be called meanie by nemo is not a small feat
[12:19] {Threei}  so I am trying
[12:21] {dino} f'ng nemo, :D
[12:22] {nemo} I need a drink
[12:23] {Threei}  hmmm
[12:23] {Threei}  and we thought we'd hear something new and original from him
[12:23] {nemo} plu cest change, plu cest le meme chose
[12:27] {dino} ?
[12:28] {dino} would've liked that 2044 gap on ndx to have filled
[12:35] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  21 break
[12:45] {Threei}  (EU) EU official comments on financial transaction (tobin) tax: Expects high frequency trading volumes to decline 20% and derivatives volumes to decline by 90% assuming the tax is implemented - financial press
[12:46] {Threei}  (SP) Spain Labor Min: Expects the 2011 19.8% unemployment target rate will be hard to meet
[12:47] {Threei}  sheesh
[12:49] {dino} wow, 19.8% officially, real must be 30%+. they are in a depression
[12:49] {Threei}  no kidding, what stunning numbers
[12:50] {Threei}  1:1
[12:51] {Threei}  I have to say, day is working out quite nicely
[12:54] {Threei}  overall, I dunno what we all worry about - isn't new iPhone coming out today, to solve al;l our troubles?? :)
[13:06] {Threei}  1:2
[13:10] {Threei}  soooo... I see Russia is starting to put USSR back tigether, eh
[13:11] {nemo} They don't call him Czar for nothing
[13:11] {Threei}  no kidding
[13:11] {Threei}  wake up you all, RIMM is giving us 1:3
[13:14] {Threei}  I am out
[13:14] {Threei}  1:3 is enough for this time of the day
[13:22] {Threei}  wow, 1:6 soon
[13:22] {Threei}  and what do you know, I get no single attaboy
[13:23] {Threei}  rodney dangerfield, where are you
[13:23] {nemo} grave
[13:24] {dino} atta boy
[13:26] {Threei}  thank you
[13:26] {Threei}  both
[13:26] {Threei}  lol
[13:31] {dino} sfly drop
[13:32] {dino} sm l .00
[13:33] {dino} stop -.40, like a rock
[13:37] {dino} sm l .35
[13:37] {dino} out .05, +.70
[13:37] {dino} 30
[13:37] {dino} sm l .30
[13:37] {dino} stop .09, -.21
[13:38] {RonS} SFLY getting smoked on the intro $AAPL new ap called Cards
[13:38] {dino} sm l .90
[13:39] {dino} well that sucked
[13:39] {RonS} also am hit
[13:42] {Threei}  what amazing amou of disruptive technologies is being intorduced regularly eh
[13:43] {nemo} buddy of mine just took applee short for $5
[13:44] {dino} gutsy
[13:44] {nemo} young and indestructable
[13:47] {dino} vprt drop
[13:47] {Threei}  RIMM lost 20
[13:49] {Threei}  even "strategic alternatives" don't help eh
[13:57] {RonS} qotd:  As if I'm going to send my Grandpa and iphone app card
[13:58] {RonS} q of the day:  If greeting card news is so exciting, why is $AAPL going down
[14:01] {Threei}  lol
[14:11] {Threei}  (GE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates opposition of Greece default option; debate on increasing the size of the EFSF is nonsense, is being pushed by those who want a debt rescheduling
[14:11] {Threei}  - A Greek default would have incalcuable consequences.
[14:11] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:11] {Threei}  no increaasing to EFSF and no Greece default?
[14:11] {Threei}  ok... whatever
[14:12] {Threei}  reminds me Trotsky response to tight spot in war with Germany: no war, no peace, army goes home
[14:14] {dino} "opposition" may be key word. opposed to it but "hey, sh*t happens"
[14:15] {Threei}  (GR) Institute for international finance (IIF): A Greece debt deal would be highly destabilizing; additional hair cuts on Greece debt would not help the deficit issues
[14:15] {dino} they are getting to the "protest too much" phase
[14:15] {Threei}  lol
[14:33] {dino} joyg sm l .50
[14:34] {dino} out .90, +.40
[14:35] {Threei}  wtg
[14:36] {dino} lucky
[14:37] {Threei}  sure
[14:39] {dino} mim drop
[14:40] {z} herb greenberg makes me want to vomit
[14:41] {z} well, really, all of cnbc
[14:41] {dino} ok agree there
[14:41] {z} yea it's cnbc.....just a bunch of cheerleading pundits
[14:43] {z} what stuff u looking at here 3i?
[14:44] {z} cloud stocks strong today
[14:44] {z} anyone alive?
[14:44] {nemo} crickets
[14:44] {dino} joyg sm l .22
[14:45] {z} in with u dino
[14:46] {dino} stop is .98
[14:46] {z} out
[14:46] {dino} stop, damn
[14:47] {z} no worries, call some more
[14:47] {z} which one of u is the n.e. pats fan?
[14:47] {dino} 07 red, going down
[14:48] {dino} nemo is
[14:50] {dino} joyg sm l .11
[14:51] {z} in .02
[14:51] {z} bigger stop this time?
[14:52] {dino} yes
[14:52] {dino} .31
[14:53] {dino} stop
[14:53] {dino} feels like retest of lod coming
[14:54] {z} back in joyg .75
[14:54] {dino} trades like pulp
[14:55] {z} yea its good i like it
[14:55] {z} you know where you're at real quick
[14:55] {dino} to put it mildly
[14:56] {z} lol true
[14:57] {z} out .10, +.35
[14:58] {z} u ever trade CF dino?
[15:00] {dino} yes
[15:00] {dino} when it was below 100
[15:00] {z} how about IDCC?
[15:01] {dino} yes, put some in kids acct
[15:01] {dino} had a bad overnight on idcc about 6 years ago, 3k shares, opened up -7
[15:02] {z} wow
[15:02] {nemo} took a while to be able to sit down after that one
[15:02] {Threei}  yikes
[15:02] {dino} try not to do that anymore
[15:02] {z} sheesh
[15:02] {dino} trade a lot smaller and usually don't hold.
[15:03] {dino} gj joyg
[15:03] {Threei}  Spot gold extending decline below $1,600; Spot silver below $29/oz; 1-week lows
[15:03] {z} figured it would deadcat somewhere in that .75 area
[15:03] {z} how was the nap 3i?
[15:04] {Threei}  no nap
[15:04] {Threei}  although need it badly
[15:04] {Threei}  just couple urgent phone calls
[15:05] {Threei}  every time I go away for a few days or a week, I try to stay disconnected
[15:05] {Threei}  no internet, no phone
[15:05] {Threei}  it's great, gives me some air..
[15:05] {Threei}  but things tend to accumulate
[15:05] {Threei}  so first couple days upon return are somewhat hectic
[15:06] {z} rimm is nutty, now back in 20.50s
[15:09] {z} AAPL 355s
[15:09] {dino} you took joyg off right?
[15:09] {z} yea in full
[15:10] {z} might take it again
[15:12] {dino} see if mkt lod holds
[15:12] {Threei}  my gut says it won't
[15:12] {nemo} don't think it will if it gets there
[15:12] {nemo} from a multi-time frame POV...alot of air down there
[15:16] {nemo} mmhhhh...IWM bounced here right at monthly S1
[15:20] {nemo} interesting...in this bear phase, the volatility in the 3X etfs is greater
[15:25] {dino} meli, titn, nvda, nxti csh, iwm finishing strong
[15:25] {Threei}  SLW doesn't bounce at all
[15:26] {dino} cmi too
[15:26] {Threei}  even when market does and even with such a decline today
[15:30] {dino} back in ten
[15:40] {RonS} :s
[15:40] {RonS} this volatility is blowing my mind...
[15:43] {Threei}  I don't even know what to say, lol
[15:44] {z} might close up a 100
[15:44] {z} who knows with this mkt
[15:44] {Threei}  I see no news
[15:45] {nemo} IWM bounced right at monthly S1, we're gonna' have a rally for awhile
[15:45] {nemo} tail wagged the dog
[15:45] {Threei}  30 min, 2.5 bucks SPY
[15:48] {Threei}  dino will faint when gets back
[15:49] {Threei}  oh boy
[15:49] {Threei}  look at this crap:
[15:49] {Threei}  Market rebound partly attributed to FT summarizing earlier reports about Euro Zone considering options to prevent a new banking crisis
[15:49] {Threei}  that's all?
[15:49] {Threei}  this is still market moving on hopium if this is the reason
[15:49] {RonS} what a joke...
[15:50] {z} let them jam it up on that BS, makes for a jucier short for us on the way back down
[15:54] {dino} unbelievable 260 pt swing in miutes
[15:54] {dino} minutes
[15:54] {nemo} IWM hit S1 on the monthly and then everything rocketed
[15:54] {nemo} now SPY at pivot on daily
[15:55] {dino} was -200 when i left
[15:55] {nemo} we've done 40% of daily volume on spy in the last .40 minutes
[15:56] {z} 3i did i say up 100?
[15:56] {RonS} omg fcx at 32.00
[15:56] {z} what is the daily prize?
[15:56] {z} :)
[15:56] {dino} like playing guts poker
[15:56] {RonS} nemo, put him in the les hall of fame...
[15:56] {Threei}  lol
[15:57] {nemo} who Z
[15:57] {nemo} ?
[15:57] {nemo} woodshed
[15:57] {RonS} ya
[15:57] {nemo} kerosene
[15:57] {nemo} match
[15:57] {RonS} lol
[15:57] {nemo} padlock on the door
[15:57] {nemo} bring marshmallows
[15:58] {nemo} wow, this is wild
[15:58] {nemo} and I was thinking of going long tna at 27.60
[15:58] {z} yep u should have
[15:59] {nemo} didn't trust my signals...oy vay
[15:59] {dino} z look joyg
[15:59] {nemo} look at everything
[15:59] {z} yea sheesh
[15:59] {z} here goes the cnbc cheer squad
[15:59] {Threei}  ok guys, that was something
[16:00] {Threei}  to see... not really to trade
[16:00] {Threei}  wonders never cease
[16:00] {z} lol
[16:00] {z} that's one way to put it
[16:00] {Threei}  have a great evening
[16:00] {Threei}  see you tomorrow :
[16:01] {larisa} bye :)
[16:01] {dino} gn all. thx for ideas.
[16:02] {z} cya later
[16:02] {dino} i'm out until tuesday the 11th. good luck to you
[16:03] {Threei}  take care dino, have fun'
[16:04] {dino} will do, thx