Monday, October 31, 2011

Oct 31 2011

(Participation in the room in real time requires membership)

Nice day for us, as most gap down days are - 7 trades, 5 wins. Stops were negligibly small, 3 of wins were nicely sized. No complaints about starting the week this way.

Session Time: Mon Oct 31 00:00:00 2011
[09:14] {ese} morning
[09:14] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:15] {ese} was just making up a calculus test for my b blk math class....anybody wanna take the test.....i'll send it on over
[09:15] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:15] {Threei}  if there is anything beyond 2x2, I'll pass, thank you
[09:16] {ese} lol
[09:16] {ese} knowing calc definitely doesn't help you in the market
[09:17] {Threei}  or anywhere else for that matter
[09:17] {ese} indeed
[09:17] {Threei}  except calc class
[09:19] {ese} didn't you have to do it......way back when
[09:19] {Threei}  yes... but I can't calaculate now how long ago it was
[09:19] {dino} gm all
[09:19] {RonS} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  which tells you a lot about how frequently that skill was required :)
[09:20] {Threei}  dino, ron :)
[09:20] {Threei}  so, MF failure was overleveraged invetsment in EU debt, right?
[09:20] {ese} well it's come in handy don't you think........hmmmm number of shiskabob squers?......required to barbecue steak and vegetables......hmmmmmmm
[09:21] {Threei}  lol
[09:21] {Threei}  I can't help but ask - how come the hopelessness of those bionds was so obvious to anyone who gave himself troubles to think, but not to these guys?
[09:22] {Threei}  is it total overriding hubris, "they'll print their way out of everything and we can bet safely on tat"?
[09:23] {Threei}  Since Corzine, 64, arrived at MF Global in March 2010, he increased the firms risk and used its own money to trade, including investments in European sovereign debt that have rattled markets
[09:23] {Threei}  MF Global, which has a market value of $198 million, owns $6.3 billion of Italian, Spanish, Belgian, Portuguese and Irish debt, the company said in an Oct. 25 presentation.
[09:23] {Threei}  good move
[09:24] {RonS} hearing corzine gets $30 mil regardless...where is ows now?
[09:24] {ese} did they leverage that?
[09:25] {RonS} w/ the same banks that will be bailed out...
[09:25] {Threei}  as long as no one steps in to bail them out with public money, I have zero problem with all that
[09:25] {ese} me either
[09:25] {Threei}  make bad bet,m fail, go bankrupt
[09:26] {ese} Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc MF Global members and clearing associates barred from floor access and trading at CME- CME taking actions to protect risk ahead of MF developments  Have Market Intel? Tip Line -} Click Here
[09:28] {Threei}  aiming to short FCX half lot into bounce
[09:29] {Threei}  ideally, around .50 - .60
[09:29] {dino} watch 11869, 2334, 1242 gaps from wed.
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .65
[09:33] {Threei}  target 41.05
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:33] {Threei}  stop to .55 for the balance
[09:35] {Threei}  1"2
[09:35] {Threei}  1:2
[09:36] {Threei}  .51 for the leftover
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .60 break
[09:37] {Threei}  aww, late
[09:37] {dino} ty fcx, cov .30, +.20
[09:37] {Threei}  ok
[09:37] {Threei}  valid again
[09:37] {Threei}  if holding .50
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1
[09:37] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:38] {Threei}  1:2 SLW, out
[09:38] {Threei}  no fill
[09:38] {Threei}  waiting at .80 withg stop trailed to .59
[09:39] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:40] {Threei}  stop to .35 for the last piece of FCX
[09:41] {RonS} chi pmi 1 min early 4 min public
[09:41] {Threei}  yeah, sudden move is likely
[09:41] {Threei}  thanks for reminder
[09:41] {Threei}  always forgetting this double time
[09:42] {Threei}  bad numbers
[09:42] {Threei}  target hit
[09:42] {Threei}  out FCX
[09:43] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .50 break
[09:43] {Threei}  if stays under .55
[09:43] {Threei}  .50 sorry
[09:43] {Threei}  grrr
[09:43] {Threei}  disregard
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: RIMM  .85
[09:47] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[09:50] {Threei}  disregard RIMM
[09:50] {Threei}  doesn't trade right
[09:55] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .25 break half lot
[09:56] {Threei}  if stays under .35
[09:56] {Threei}  target 1:3, 3 partials
[09:56] {Threei}  1:1
[09:57] {Threei}  stop to .31
[09:57] {Threei}  to .26
[09:59] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:00] {Threei}  3:3... did we break Monday curse?
[10:00] {Threei}  mondays have been lacklustre lately
[10:01] {dino} gj
[10:01] {Threei}  ty
[10:02] {dino} drive sm l .60
[10:03] {RonS} driv or drive?
[10:03] {ese} i'm still hangin in there with a small position from last friday dino at .86
[10:04] {ese} this one is just looking for an excuse
[10:04] {dino} driv, lol
[10:07] {dino} mdr sm l .70
[10:07] {ese} you got a target on driv dino?
[10:08] {dino} damn had hmsy on screen, spiked w/o me
[10:08] {dino} .90s ese
[10:10] {dino} nihd sm l .14
[10:10] {ese} hmmmmmmm......was gonna swing this small one for mid 19's
[10:10] {dino} could do it, just looking at fri resis
[10:11] {ese} ah's a whatever........if it works great if not.........whatever
[10:11] {dino} sure
[10:12] {ese} sure lookin like it wants up though
[10:12] {dino} holds well, but kind of stuck
[10:12] {ese} ya
[10:15] {ese} if it goes by .65 your position will pay off easily.......i'll consider wether it's worth hangin onto at that point
[10:15] {Threei}  MF files folr bankruptsy\
[10:16] {ese} were they that big?......i don't know much about them
[10:19] {Threei}  yeah
[10:19] {Threei}  cleared for a lot of other firms
[10:19] {Threei}  fallout is significant
[10:20] {Threei}  but hey
[10:20] {Threei}  this is opportunity to finally test this novekl idea:
[10:20] {Threei}  let failure fail
[10:24] {dino} was expected eese
[10:30] {ese} I hadn't heard......was unaware
[10:30] {dino} ten sm l .30
[10:31] {RonS} some saying market cap 4 yrs ago $4 bil...corzine got brought in after one of their traders dropped $100 mil on commodity bet...chump change to the corzine bet
[10:32] {Threei}  amazes me, really
[10:32] {ese} i'll say
[10:32] {Threei}  did they really believe so strignly that EU will print its way out easily?
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  48 break
[10:38] {Threei}  if stays above ,90
[10:39] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:39] {Threei}  standard procedure
[10:40] {Threei}  1:1
[10:40] {dino} out ten .94, +.64
[10:40] {Threei}  wtg
[10:40] {dino} ty
[10:41] {swill} ty
[10:41] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:42] {dino} you take that ten swill?
[10:42] {swill} no, lvs
[10:42] {dino} ok
[10:45] {dino} tzoo spike
[10:48] {Threei}  lvs deserved two-sided setup in retrospect,e h?
[10:52] {dino} auxl sm l .70
[10:52] {Threei}  TransCanada Corp Canada Energy Min: May need to sell oil sands oil elsewhere if the US does not approve the Keystone XL pipeline; may shift focus to a proposed pipeline to the west coast to serve Asian markets
[10:53] {dino} another obama screw-up
[10:53] {Threei}  let's see: oil from hostile countries with extremely volatile environment, or from closest stable neighbor?
[10:53] {Threei}  hmmm... touch choice
[10:53] {Threei}  tough
[10:54] {dino} db lod
[10:54] {RonS} db load
[10:55] {dino} out mdr .90, +.20
[10:55] {dino} driv stop -.15
[10:57] {dino} fslr sm l .31
[10:59] {dino} out fslr .64, +.33
[11:01] {dino} wow sold way too soon
[11:09] {ese} crap man....your hot today dino
[11:09] {Threei}  he takes revenge for Friday
[11:10] {ese} i'll say
[11:11] {ese} and here I am.......just watching my measily little position........ho hum
[11:12] {dino} friday was bad day for me
[11:12] {Threei}  we all have those
[11:13] {dino} auxl stop, -.30
[11:15] {Threei}  Fannie Mae Some managers at the company said have been placed on leave due to investigations of multi family transactions - financial press
[11:16] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .15 break
[11:16] {Threei}  stop above .25
[11:18] {Threei}  let's trail to .21
[11:18] {Threei}  not liking it much
[11:18] {Threei}  out
[11:25] {dino} auxl sm l .11
[11:28] {dino} nihd sm l .60
[11:41] {nemo} how today going?
[11:42] {RonS} 'jus sittin in te blind waiting for some deer to shoot and petting our rabbits
[11:42] {nemo} man after my own heart
[11:42] {RonS} lol...btw got the gunnars and they do help...thanks
[11:43] {nemo} yw
[11:44] {nemo} market digesting last week...end of month also
[11:44] {Threei}  moring nemo
[11:45] {Threei}  4:5 here
[11:45] {nemo} scalps or biggies?
[11:45] {Threei}  couple scalps
[11:45] {Threei}  couple better ones
[11:45] {Threei}  stop is whooping 7 cents
[11:45] {nemo} back breaker
[11:45] {Threei}  yeah
[11:45] {dino} 5 of 8 nemo
[11:46] {nemo} with slippage and fees, that's $.10!!!!
[11:46] {Threei}  yes :(
[11:46] {nemo} that's good for you dino on a gap market
[11:47] {nemo} Europe closing hour later today
[11:47] {dino} gap downs i don't mind, its the big gap up opens that mess w/me
[11:47] {Threei}  as far as I am concenred Europe is closed
[11:48] {nemo} stealth trend in IWM
[12:03] {RonS} dino, whatch thinkin target .04 ave
[12:04] {dino}  ten sm l .50
[12:04] {RonS} qotd:  corzine to be dick fuld for halloween...
[12:05] {ese} am outta here ...cya tomorrow
[12:05] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:05] {Threei}  lol ron
[12:05] {Threei}  took me a second
[12:05] {dino} cya ese
[12:05] {RonS} lol:  Kim Kardashian will file for divorce this morning, after 72 days of not-so-wedded bliss to Kris Humphries ... TMZ has learned.
[12:06] {RonS} cya ese
[12:09] {RonS} merger rumor:   Knotts Berry Farm and the National Organization of Women will become:  Knott NOW!
[12:09] {RonS} another...:   Victoria 's Secret and Smith & Wesson will merge under the new name:
[12:10] {RonS} TittyTittyBangBang
[12:11] {Threei}  lol
[12:11] {dino} out auxl .43, +.32
[12:11] {Threei}  nice
[12:11] {dino} lol
[12:11] {RonS} jeez my sell at .44
[12:12] {dino} almost missed, fingers covered in hot wing sauce
[12:12] {RonS} but you licked it...
[12:13] {dino} :)
[12:13] {dino} brb
[12:25] {Threei}  euro slides relentlessly
[12:30] {RonS} out auxl .38  +.34  ese size
[12:30] {Threei}  wtg
[12:31] {dino} gj
[12:31] {RonS} the market slide shook me out
[12:34] {dino} out ten .82, +.30
[12:34] {dino} +.32
[12:36] {RonS} wtg
[12:36] {dino} ty
[12:39] {RonS} bma sm l .95
[12:47] {dino} vhc
[12:54] {RonS} out bma .87 -.08
[13:07] {RonS} lol...CNBC reporting market sell-off due to Kardashian divorce rumors.
[13:08] {Threei}  is it an April 1 joke?
[13:08] {dino}   lol
[13:09] {RonS} lol...S&P downgrades $MF to D rating
[13:10] {RonS} first joke...second not...
[13:12] {dino} nice value added research s/p
[13:12] {Threei}  lol
[13:12] {Threei}  no kidding
[13:12] {Threei}  I'll say, second is a joke too Ron
[13:12] {RonS} qotd:  S&P must read the papers, savvy!
[13:15] {RonS} tif 81 break l if it consolidates 3i?
[13:16] {Threei}  doesn't inspire me...
[13:16] {RonS} diamond hater...
[13:16] {Threei}  something is too unreadable about it
[13:16] {Threei}  lol
[13:17] {Threei}  it's not even "no, not a good one..." it's "no idea, seems too random"
[13:17] {Threei}  but, diamonds are forever
[13:21] {RonS} and if bush had done this?  State Dept.: U.S. will withhold $60 million in funding to UNESCO that was due in November after vote on Palestinian membership.
[13:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break half lot
[13:32] {Threei}  this is aggressive entry to .80 break,
[13:32] {Threei}  and idea is:
[13:32] {Threei}  half lot is taken on .90 break with stop above 41,
[13:32] {Threei}  and then half lot added on .80 break
[13:33] {Threei}  so, building full position as confirmation appears
[13:38] {Threei}  and if no confirmation ever comes, we get stopped on just a galf lot
[13:38] {Threei}  half
[13:39] {Threei}  ok, out
[13:40] {Threei}  be back in an hour guys
[13:40] {Threei}  to try and hunt for something good at the last hour
[14:27] {RonS} nwl l .80 break
[14:34] {RonS} out .88 +.07 ese size ese trade
[14:34] {dino} still in fl
[14:39] {RonS} dino, iart
[14:39] {RonS} looking of vol capit
[14:39] {RonS} for
[14:41] {dino} funny i have that on my screen, beat and lowered slightly
[14:42] {RonS} hmmm
[14:46] {dino} out nwl .92, +.12, thx ron
[14:47] {RonS} yw
[14:47] {dino} iart sm l .50
[14:56] {dino} thing's all over the place
[14:57] {RonS} auxl sm l .56
[14:57] {RonS} iart sm l .65
[14:59] {dino} out .77 ave +.27
[15:00] {dino} thing has air pockets under it
[15:01] {RonS} out iart flat
[15:02] {Threei}  back
[15:02] {Threei}  didn't miss much I see
[15:03] {RonS} hearing mf situation has impacted futures volmes
[15:05] {Threei}  gut says down to the eod
[15:06] {RonS} question of the day:  How many times does Dick Bove have to be wrong before he gets tar and feathered?
[15:06] {Threei}  lol
[15:15] {dino} lod
[15:16] {dino} out nihd -.05
[15:17] {dino} btw, 10" of snow fell here on saturday
[15:18] {Threei}  yikes
[15:18] {dino} was a mess
[15:19] {dino} but slowly melting away
[15:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[15:19] {Threei}  if holding .60
[15:19] {Threei}  target 1:3
[15:19] {Threei}  1:1
[15:20] {Threei}  told ya I'd be back for another win
[15:20] {Threei}  1:2
[15:21] {Threei}  1:3 baby
[15:22] {dino} gj
[15:23] {Threei}  ty
[15:23] {Threei}  look at the precision of the target
[15:27] {RonS} out auxl +.01 .60 break fail
[15:30] {Threei}  freefall
[15:31] {dino} tom petty
[15:31] {Threei}  (GR) Greek parliament is planning a vote of confidence in the government for Friday, Nov 4th - financial press
[15:33] {dino} gotta hop, may be back for close
[15:33] {RonS} wow, does this mean dino is nemo's rabbit?
[15:34] {Threei}  you realize he will read it when he is back, right?:)
[15:36] {larisa} he can not read :)
[15:36] {Threei}  that's ron's only hope
[15:46] {Threei}  this one catstrophically looking close
[15:51] {Threei}  one pascinbating look at the market dynamics, real time:
[15:51] {Threei}  fascinating
[15:51] {Threei}
[15:55] {dino} hmmmmm
[15:55] {larisa} he CAN read :)
[15:55] {Threei}  tough luck Ron
[15:55] {dino} indeed
[15:56] {Threei}  hmm... you say indeed as if it was a given... I for instance can't
[15:58] {dino} looks like mf bankruptcy is hitting db hard
[16:01] {larisa} bye :)
[16:01] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:01] {Threei}  have a good evening
[16:01] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[16:02] {swill} thank you
[16:02] {dino} gn all, thx for ideas