Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Jan 24 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now: http://www.realitytrader.com/111trades.html  )

 Tiresome day - started nicely positively, went to about break-even to slightly negative and climbed back to slightly positive. All in all, felt a bit like work.

Session Time: Tue Jan 24 00:00:00 2012
[09:03] }_mark1} hello
[09:03] }Threei}  good morning mark
[09:03] }_mark1} gm first time here
[09:03] }Threei}  I guess it means time to wake up...
[09:03] }nemo} sheesh...here we go with the pleasantries again....gag
[09:03] }Threei}  welcome
[09:04] }Threei}  yes nemo... there are polite [ep[le around, you know
[09:04] }Threei}  people
[09:04] }nemo} I prefer Woland
[09:04] }Threei}  he was very polite
[09:05] }Threei}  deadly but polite
[09:05] }Threei}  (GR) S&P Chamber's: Greece likely to be Downgraded to selective default during H1 of 2012; move is a matter 'of when not if'
[09:06] }Threei}  (PT) Portugal Fin Mn: Portugal was not discussed at Ecofin
[09:07] }Threei}  Ecofin: what to discuss... we tried to avoid politica, money, sex, religion...
[09:08] }Threei}  Moammar Gadhafi loyalists have seized control of Libyan town, officials and fighters say
[09:09] }Threei}  you know, I think I could easily write headlines from middle east for the next 100 years... I wouldn't get some names right but other than that...
[09:10] }JK13} good morning all
[09:10] }Threei}  jk :)
[09:10] }ese} morning
[09:10] }Threei}  ese :)
[09:10] }ese} jk
[09:10] }ese} vad
[09:11] }JK13} ese:)
[09:11] }Threei}  anyone has a title fpr this, feel free to chime in:
[09:11] }Threei}  http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=197900756975541&set=a.107450996020518.10603.100002668551123&type=1&theater
[09:12] }cipher} it's a little out of focus
[09:12] }ese} lol
[09:12] }Threei}  lol
[09:13] }JK13} "I see the snow has melted"
[09:13] }ese} talented photographic eye if i've ever seen one
[09:13] }Threei}  hehe
[09:13] }Threei}  post right there
[09:13] }Threei}  Some Chevrolet dealers are turning down Volts that General Motors wants to ship to them, a potential stumbling block as GM looks to accelerate sales of the plug-in hybrid.
[09:13] }Threei}  Read more: http://www.autonews.com/article/20120123/RETAIL07/301239977#ixzz1kNvz9zjl
[09:13] }Threei}  gosh... even dealers don't want their allocation?
[09:17] }rambler} good morning...
[09:17] }Threei}  rambler :)
[09:18] }Threei}  no opening trade candidate yet but it's likely to be a short
[09:18] }_mark1} may i ask a question?
[09:19] }Threei}  sure
[09:19] }ese} rambler
[09:19] }_mark1} im looking at a down day but by how much?
[09:19] }Threei}  it's a very easy one to answer:
[09:19] }Threei}  no one knows, and it's far from given that it will end in red
[09:20] }Threei}  don't try to build your trading on prediction... anyone claiming to know is either a fool or a fraud
[09:20] }rambler} morning ese..
[09:21] }Threei}  you don't need to predict to be able to trade profitably
[09:22] }Threei}  trading is a process of following the standard procedure based on familiar setups, where each given trade may fail but over a statistically valid number of samples they work in your favor
[09:25] }Threei}  if it were not for an opwning volatility, I'd say TZA .65 break long
[09:26] }Threei}  if we get SPY spike at the open, TZA is likely to bottom out around .45 - .50
[09:26] }Threei}  short FCX is snother one in mind
[09:26] }Threei}  half lot but no clear entry point yet
[09:30] }Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[09:30] }Threei}  if stays under .50
[09:30] }Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .65 break
[09:30] }Threei}  if stays above .55
[09:31] }Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:34] }Threei}  TZA invalidated
[09:34] }Threei}  wow
[09:34] }Threei}  that's volaitlity
[09:34] }nemo} ow
[09:35] }Threei}  1:1, bastid
[09:35] }dino} stop flat
[09:36] }Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .35 break
[09:36] }Threei}  if stays under .45 scalpers, .50 day traders
[09:37] }Threei}  scalpers 1:1
[09:37] }Threei}  daytraders 1:1
[09:40] }Threei}  stop to .26
[09:40] }Threei}  choke it
[09:40] }Threei}  to .21 now
[09:41] }dino} cov fcx +.15 ty vad
[09:41] }thomcbell} ksu on radar long
[09:41] }dino} saw that
[09:41] }nemo} watch tna as/if spy gets nearer 130.40
[09:42] }dino} zion, idcc
[09:42] }Threei}  welcome
[09:42] }Threei}  FCX? or SLW?
[09:43] }Threei}  stop to .16
[09:44] }Threei}  out in full
[09:44] }rambler} beauty Vad...tks
[09:45] }Threei}  welcome kind sir
[09:45] }Threei}  no one called me a beauty for many years
[09:45] }Threei}  oh, you meant a trade...
[09:45] }rambler} you are this morning....
[09:46] }Threei}  wait, I'll get some exygen for my wife, 'cause she is likely to choke laughing when I show her that
[09:46] }Threei}  oxygen
[09:46] }rambler} lol
[09:46] }Threei}  watching TZA for entry on pullback
[09:47] }Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .75 break
[09:47] }Threei}  if stays above .70
[09:48] }Threei}  valid still
[09:49] }Threei}  not anymore, but on watch for another trigger
[09:51] }Threei}  how much idiocy can you squeeze into single comment?
[09:51] }Threei}  answer:
[09:51] }Threei}  (US) Reminder: IMF to release its updated economic and financial forecasts
[09:51] }Threei}  - On Jan 19th press reports noted that IMF draft World Economic Outlook (WEO) would cut its Global GDP growth outlook to 3.3% from 4.0% prior
[09:51] }Threei}  - IMF's Chief Lagarde did commented that Euro zone growth was slowing sharply, more central bank easing is needed
[09:51] }Threei}  - global economy could slide back towards a "1930s moment"
[09:52] }Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[09:52] }dino} rbn sm l .01
[09:53] }Threei}  if stays above .60
[09:53] }Threei}  if dives under .65, try to get in aggressively on .65 recross
[09:53] }Threei}  if stays above .60 again
[09:55] }dino} wat spike
[09:55] }Threei}  no go
[09:55] }Threei}  first stop
[09:56] }Threei}  let's take a breather and reevaluate
[09:56] }Threei}  looks like SPY prepares for a break of .90
[09:59] }Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[10:00] }Threei}  stop above .60 FCX
[10:00] }Threei}  headlines turn the market on a dime
[10:01] }Threei}  yikes
[10:01] }Threei}  stop
[10:02] }JohnH} I got filled at .62, that hurt
[10:03] }Threei}  hmm?
[10:03] }Threei}  normal stop
[10:03] }Threei}  how did it hurt beyond usual
[10:05] }JohnH} I had a tighter stop as a result of a late/low fill
[10:05] }Threei}  are you using market orders?
[10:05] }JohnH} watching it blow thru, and not trade for a few seconds
[10:05] }JohnH} no, no market orders
[10:06] }Threei}  why low fill then
[10:07] }JohnH} when it triggered I got in at .46
[10:07] }JohnH} so I had a lower stop, I didn't want to risk all the way to .60
[10:08] }Threei}  this is not the right way to structure a trade...
[10:08] }JohnH} ok
[10:08] }Threei}  you are chasing too much - 4 cents for a 10-cents stop placement scews r/r too much,
[10:08] }JohnH} right
[10:09] }Threei}  and placing a stop arbitrarily because of your fill and not where the chart indicates ruins the very idea of trading of chart structure
[10:10] }JohnH} but with slippage and commissions, 1:1 r/r is really .15 risk/.10 reward (assuming scalping)?
[10:10] }Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break
[10:11] }Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:11] }dino} wow wat
[10:11] }Threei}  invalidated
[10:11] }Threei}  watching for reestablishing
[10:12] }Threei}  valid again
[10:12] }Threei}  sheesh
[10:12] }Threei}  no vhance for entry
[10:13] }Threei}  if pulls back to .50, second chance is valid
[10:14] }Threei}  ok
[10:14] }Threei}  stop under .40
[10:14] }Threei}  1:1
[10:14] }Threei}  target 1:2
[10:14] }Threei}  stop to .48 for the balance
[10:15] }rambler} wow...I missed that one....
[10:15] }Threei}  dove right into .50
[10:15] }Threei}  scalpers win
[10:17] }Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break half lot
[10:17] }Threei}  if stays above .40
[10:17] }Threei}  deja vu
[10:18] }Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .70 break
[10:18] }Threei}  if stays above .60
[10:19] }dino} wat vsm s .30
[10:19] }Threei}  volstility id bit too big so cutting TNA to half lot this time
[10:20] }thomcbell} lvs looks like a 47.45 short entry Vad
[10:20] }Threei}  I'd take .50 break
[10:23] }Threei}  TNA 1:1
[10:24] }Threei}  disregard FCX long
[10:24] }pragmatic} target for TNA ?
[10:24] }Threei}  1:2
[10:24] }Threei}  but play by the book
[10:24] }thomcbell} y - i was trying to figure that one out -
[10:24] }Threei}  stop is trailed to .48 for the balance
[10:25] }Threei}  change FCX to short
[10:25] }Threei}  .60 break trigger
[10:25] }Threei}  if stays under .70
[10:25] }thomcbell} lvs invalidated
[10:26] }Threei}  TNA, scalpers win again
[10:26] }Threei}  come on FCX, time to roll over and die
[10:27] }dino} cov wat .70, +.60
[10:28] }dino} too soon
[10:28] }Threei}  wtg
[10:28] }dino} thx
[10:28] }thomcbell} need help with this one VAD - ksu reverse cup and handle possibly developing
[10:29] }dino} meli spike
[10:29] }Threei}  close FCX
[10:29] }Threei}  no read on it here anymore, that long tail is very much a cangaroo one
[10:30] }nemo} vrx
[10:30] }Threei}  no idea on KSU
[10:30] }Threei}  does look like short but volatility is horrific
[10:31] }thomcbell} ok that looks like almost 4:1
[10:31] }thomcbell} lol
[10:31] }dino} ksu hitting vwap
[10:32] }dino} last bounce was 65.25 area
[10:32] }Threei} Long Setup:  X  .15 break
[10:33] }Threei}  stop under .05
[10:33] }dino} mkt wants opening gaps imo
[10:33] }Threei}  1:1
[10:39] }dino} deck drop
[10:41] }dino} eat sm l .51
[10:41] }Threei}  out in full .32
[10:43] }thomcbell} good instincts Vad on FCX
[10:46] }Threei}  wow X
[10:46] }Threei}  had more in it
[10:47] }thomcbell} lvs 47.69 break
[10:47] }thomcbell} target 2:1
[10:48] }thomcbell} good volume coming in last 3 minutes
[10:51] }thomcbell} lvs stop 47.60
[10:56] }thomcbell} closing lvs
[10:56] }thomcbell} -0.05
[10:59] }Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .80 break half lot
[11:00] }dino} wat bounce
[11:02] }ese} L HDY .40
[11:03] }ese} got out of this at .36 yesterday for +.13
[11:03] }ese} feelin like it still wants up
[11:04] }thomcbell} lvs now shows relative strength
[11:04] }ese} and..........I like the look and feel of the daily chart
[11:05] }dino} out eat +.07
[11:06] }thomcbell} daily looks incredible on lvs
[11:06] }ese} were we eatin?
[11:06] }ese} indeed it does tom
[11:06] }thomcbell} like the recent above avg volume
[11:08] }ese} it's breaking up as we speak
[11:09] }thomcbell} yes - i didnt follow the book on my 47.69 entry
[11:10] }Threei}  no go
[11:10] }Threei}  not delighted
[11:10] }Threei}  what's with sudden spikes again
[11:10] }Threei}  no news
[11:11] }Threei}  (IR) EU officials confirm that discussions took place with some nations in Asia on moving forward with similar Iran oil type embargo to the one recently agreed upon in Europe
[11:11] }Threei}  - Hope that India and China at the very least will not increase their Iran oil imports as the EU embargo goes into effect mid-year.
[11:11] }Threei}  yeah, that's going to be effective
[11:13] }dino} out rbn +.20
[11:17] }dino} wat vsm s .37
[11:18] }dino} stop .60 -.23
[11:22] }dino} wat vsm s .50 break
[11:25] }dino} stop
[11:30] }rambler} what's up with water today?
[11:31] }nemo} ?
[11:31] }rambler} WAT...
[11:31] }nemo} ahhh
[11:40] }Threei}  watching FAZ
[11:40] }Threei}  dive closer to .70 should provide long entry
[11:42] }Threei}  FCX rinsed the short
[11:43] }dino} wat vsm s .50
[11:45] }nemo} cat on vwap
[11:47] }Threei}  so far today looks like a day where one should have stopped trading after first 30-40 min
[11:47] }Threei}  but every time I ask about going home, what do I hear?
[11:48] }nemo} ur already home
[11:48] }Threei}  there
[11:48] }nemo} you get to sit there in your boxers and drink vodka....what's the problem?
[11:48] }Threei}  FAZ no pullback
[11:49] }Threei}  if SPY loses .20, FAZ will just break out
[11:50] }Threei}  not sure I want to buy this break
[11:50] }Threei}  most of them run into rinses today
[11:58] }dino} qcor spike
[11:59] }ese} outaa here.....am giving a math exam this morning......anybody wanna take it
[12:00] }dino} cov wat .08, +.42
[12:00] }Threei}  nice
[12:00] }Threei}  take care ese
[12:01] }Threei}  (EU) ECB's Praet: Indications are that the EMU economy is stabilizing; reiterates there is no option for countries to leave the EMU
[12:01] }Threei}  hotel california
[12:04] }dino} qcor vsm s .75
[12:05] }JK13} Vad what do think Fcx long here
[12:05] }Threei}  chart is right
[12:06] }Threei}  follow-through today is questionable
[12:06] }Threei}  not sure
[12:09] }dino} cov qcor .35, +.40
[12:09] }cipher} wtg
[12:11] }dino} ty
[12:11] }dino} things pulp
[12:29] }dino} wow qcor drop
[12:35] }Threei}  QCOR is a mystery
[12:35] }Threei}  11:59 news says "financial blog makes cautious comments"
[12:35] }dino} 3 buck bounce and 2 buck drop. news?
[12:36] }Threei}  see above
[12:36] }Threei}  I've no idea why it went up on that
[12:45] }dino} bvsn wow last few days
[12:46] }cc_8} monster
[12:50] }Threei}  lol BVSN
[12:50] }dino} thing keeps going
[12:50] }Threei}  pulp incorporated
[12:51] }Threei}  $1.40 in one breath
[12:53] }Threei}  another $2 in the next one
[12:53] }dino} i can't borrow it, altho that may be a good thing
[12:53] }Threei}  no kidding
[12:53] }Threei}  good luck managing risk on that one
[12:54] }Threei}  even papertrading it is too risky
[12:54] }dino} have to trade 10 shares
[12:57] }dino} wat rolling over?
[12:58] }Threei}  market spikes again...
[13:04] }Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .95 break
[13:05] }Threei}  if stays above .85
[13:07] }dino} wat vsm s .11
[13:11] }dino} to .80
[13:12] }dino} cov .74, +.37
[13:12] }dino} wat
[13:12] }cipher} nice
[13:13] }dino} ty
[13:15] }Threei}  TZA target 1:3
[13:15] }dino} rpxc drop
[13:19] }dino} bvsn continues
[13:19] }Threei}  ok TZA... time to launch
[13:23] }nemo} you've got until spy reaces .06
[13:24] }cipher} +.20 rpxc thx dino
[13:27] }Threei}  let's tighten stop to .89
[13:29] }dino} gj cipher
[13:29] }nemo} coh to the whole
[13:37] }dino} afternoons are still slow
[13:37] }Threei}  yeah
[13:38] }Threei}  but there is some underlying change
[13:39] }Beau} still seeing 1:3 vad
[13:39] }Threei}  yes, so far
[13:40] }Threei}  first partial at 1:1
[13:40] }Threei}  and stop to .94
[13:46] }Threei}  noooo... anything but this:
[13:46] }Threei}  Bank of America Corp Planning to inform investment banker employees of cut in compensation nearing 25% - financial press- Reminder: Morgan Stanley recently announced its plans to cut some compensation by 20-30%
[13:46] }Threei}  my eyes are filling up with tears
[13:46] }Threei}  my heart with sadness
[13:47] }Threei}  I see crying children having to go to sleep with no new Porche
[13:48] }Threei}  I may find some consolation iks this though:
[13:48] }Threei}  JPMorgan Chase and Co CEO Dimon: Planning to stay with the company for 3-5 years or more - Fox business interview
[13:51] }Threei}  meanwhile, scalpers win once again
[13:53] }nemo} bvsn
[13:56] }dino} wow
[13:57] }Threei}  lol
[13:57] }Threei}  up on no news, down on no news
[13:57] }Threei}  which would be fine if not the mind-boggling scale of the move
[13:58] }nemo} guy I know shorted it at 43.70
[14:01] }dino} that was somethin, 11 bucks up, 6 down
[14:06] }Threei}  National Poll: #Gingrich 35%, #Romney 28%, #Santorum 16%, #Paul 10%
[14:07] }Threei}  that Ron Paul polls below Santorum is... just sick
[14:14] }Threei}  BVSN had more of that in the store
[14:20] }dino} qcor moves back up
[14:25] }dino} w2lt spike
[14:25] }dino} wlt
[14:32] }dino} uthr drop
[14:36] }dino} vsm l .25
[14:37] }dino} out .65,
[14:37] }dino} .+.40
[14:37] }dino} too soon
[14:37] }dino} bummer
[14:38] }Threei}  watching TNA for pullback entry
[14:38] }dino} thought that was code for porn
[14:39] }Threei}  lol
[14:39] }dino} wow uthr, i chickened out of that a buck early
[14:49] }Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break
[14:49] }Threei}  if stays above .50
[14:49] }dino} gg drop
[14:56] }Threei}  1:1
[14:58] }Threei}  with this scalp I am at b/e for the day... that begs a question: was it really worth waking up?
[14:58] }Threei}  especially considering grey weather
[14:59] }dino} ango drop
[15:00] }dino} nanoknife sys recall
[15:00] }Threei}  lowers 2012 rev guidance
[15:01] }dino} should go lower
[15:02] }dino} but its not
[15:07] }Threei}  AAPL rwport, SoTU speech, and FOMC started today
[15:07] }Threei}  enough for the market to be hesitant
[15:08] }Threei}  wow ANGO
[15:08] }Threei}  full recovery
[15:11] }JK13} tna
[15:12] }Threei}  what can I say... after almost every trade ended in scalp, how do you stay with this one
[15:12] }JK13} what is with the spike
[15:12] }Threei}  no news
[15:13] }JK13} it looks like dow is finishing the day above 12380 and Spy above 131.50
[15:14] }JK13} 12680
[15:25] }Threei}  FCX
[15:25] }Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  44 break
[15:27] }thomcbell} JOY raises mining cap-ex forecast - Bloomberg          *JOY GLOBAL SAYS MINING COMPANIES' CAPEX TO RISE 15% IN 2012 (had said would rise 10%)
[15:31] }dino} gg sm l .15
[15:33] }Threei}  invalidated
[15:36] }dino} out gg .25, +.10
[15:39] }Threei} Short Setup: FCX  44 break
[15:40] }Threei}  stop above .05
[15:40] }dino} son of a... the joy you typed, i was looking for joyg, not joy
[15:40] }dino} bvsn drop
[15:41] }dino} wow negative
[15:41] }nemo} silly
[15:41] }Threei}  sheesh
[15:43] }dino} kill the shorts then kill the longs
[15:44] }nemo} look at IWM, just coming back to trend
[15:44] }Threei}  out FCX
[15:44] }Threei}  crawled into positive territory
[15:44] }nemo} spy is oscillating around  a long term retracement level since the 19th
[15:52] }dino} nemo, how's the job going?
[15:53] }nemo} jury's out...I'm at home today...I'll go in tomorrow and Thursday, then got stuff Friday afternoon and evening.  Not sure if the benefit is there
[15:55] }dino} good luck
[15:55] }nemo} ty
[15:55] }Threei}  well, ending in plus but fully feeling that it was a teeth-pulling day
[15:56] }Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:56] }Threei}  see you tonorrow
[15:56] }Threei}  who wants fireworks, stay and watch APPL
[15:56] }JK13} gn all, thanks Vad
[15:56] }dino} markets acting a bit differently last few days
[15:57] }Threei}  AAPL too
[15:57] }Threei}  I feel so too dino
[15:57] }Threei}  sonething's brewing
[15:57] }rambler} cya in the a.m.....
[15:57] }dino} risk off coming
[15:57] }Threei}  hope so
[15:57] }dino} i am shorting much more lately
[15:57] }Threei}  really want to trade downside market rather than this tiresomly slow climb
[15:58] }dino} understood
[16:00] }dino} gn all
[16:00] }dino} thx for ideas
[16:00] }nemo} GN