Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Jan 25 2012

(Course on chart pattern recognition is available now:  )

 Nicely profitable day which couple midday stops couldn't spoil.

Session Time: Wed Jan 25 00:00:00 2012
[09:13] {Threei}  time to wake up I am afraid...
[09:16] {Threei}  dino forgot where the door is
[09:17] {JK13} good morning everyone
[09:17] {Threei}  jk :)
[09:19] {Threei}  there you go
[09:19] {dino} knock knock, let me in
[09:19] {Threei}  hehe... [09:16] {Threei} dino forgot where the door is
[09:21] {Threei}  so... blowout AAPL earnings, huge jump - and market is in red?
[09:22] {Threei}  tells us something I guess
[09:28] {dino} rkt?
[09:29] {Threei}  report and guidance
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[09:31] {Threei}  half lot
[09:31] {Threei}  if stays under .70
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .85 break
[09:32] {Threei}  if stays under .95
[09:32] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:32] {ese} gm
[09:32] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:33] {Threei}  FCX, trail to .66
[09:34] {Threei}  to .61
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  48 break half lot
[09:35] {Threei}  stop under .90
[09:35] {Threei}  cover FCX
[09:36] {Threei}  no go LVS
[09:36] {Threei}  looked like salmon for a min there
[09:37] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .65 break
[09:37] {Threei}  if stays under .75
[09:39] {Threei}  trail to .71
[09:39] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:39] {Threei}  no way scalpers win this one
[09:40] {Threei}  1:1, half out
[09:40] {Threei}  stop to .66
[09:40] {dino} fcx s ,50
[09:41] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:42] {Threei}  beauty of aggressive entries... actual setup was .60 break but execution was much easier at interim support
[09:43] {Threei}  friking LVS, rinse
[09:44] {Threei}  housing numbers at 10
[09:45] {dino} stop fcx -.05
[09:46] {Threei}  RIMM...
[09:46] {Threei}  watching for long on pullback
[09:49] {Threei}  support is .15 - .20 area
[09:50] {Threei}  sheesh AAPL
[09:50] {Threei}  widowmaker
[09:51] {Threei}  need another leg down from RIMM to get interested
[09:52] {dino} ksu sm l .75
[09:54] {Threei}  sitting out housing numbers before looking for the next setup
[09:58] {Threei}  keeping SLW on radar for possible short
[10:00] {Threei}  home sales - 3.5% vs -1 E
[10:00] {Threei}  price index 1% vs 0E
[10:01] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[10:01] {Threei}  if stays under .50
[10:01] {Threei}  grr, missed RIMM while watching numbers
[10:02] {Threei}  did exactly what I wanted
[10:02] {Threei}  IMF: tells G20 that ECB needs to increase balance sheet to address debt crisis
[10:02] {Threei}  - G20 countries can help the EU expand the bailout fund
[10:05] {dino} mfrm spike3
[10:06] {dino} gpro spike
[10:08] {Threei}  SLW is valid again
[10:08] {Threei}  same condition
[10:10] {Threei}  can't tell scalp or more this time
[10:11] {Threei}  trail to .46
[10:12] {Threei}  want to keep it tight
[10:12] {dino} gpro vsm s .75
[10:12] {Threei}  FOMC day
[10:12] {Threei}  out
[10:12] {dino} ksu to .,80
[10:15] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .35 break
[10:16] {Threei}  if stays under .45
[10:17] {dino} gpro stop -.25
[10:19] {dino} life sm s .35
[10:21] {dino} gpro rinse wtf
[10:22] {Threei}  trail to .42
[10:24] {Threei}  1:1
[10:24] {Threei}  covering half, but no firm confidence
[10:25] {Threei}  trail to .36 for the balance
[10:27] {Threei}  if elect taking scalp, I won't hold it against you
[10:30] {Threei}  *(US) DOE CRUDE: +3.56M V +1ME; GASOLINE: -390K V +1.5ME
[10:30] {Threei}  drowning in oil
[10:32] {dino} out ksu .05, +.30
[10:38] {dino} idcc sm l .85
[10:45] {dino} clr
[10:46] {dino} life to b/e
[10:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .10 break
[10:47] {dino} idcc to .69 stuck
[10:50] {Threei}  1:1
[10:53] {Threei}  (EU) Officials in the EU calling for EMU to increase the cap on the bailout mechanisms ESM/EFSF - financial press
[10:53] {Threei}  - Notes that G20 countries should match �200B commitment from the Europe to the IMF
[10:53] {Threei}  bunch of idiots
[10:53] {Threei}  stuck on z"more bailout funds" note
[10:56] {dino} out x .24, +.14 ty vad
[10:56] {ese} anybody on this board been to Milan Italy?  am looking for a hotel reservation
[10:57] {dino} life cov .25, +.10
[11:00] {Threei}  1:2, out
[11:01] {Threei}  so far, nice day
[11:01] {Threei}  not overly active but things work
[11:02] {dino} idcc to .07
[11:02] {dino} out +.22
[11:03] {Threei}  most annoying words of 2012: "fair share"
[11:06] {dino} wait until you hear "from each according to ability, to each according to need"
[11:07] {Threei}  hmmm... now THAT wiuld be "back to the future " for me, lol
[11:10] {JohnH}  question: when trade reaches 1:1 but doesn't trade there...
[11:10] {JohnH} do you then put in a limit order at 1:1?
[11:10] {Threei}  if it's something like 1 cent, and a stock looks like it's about to reverse, I just hit the bid
[11:11] {JohnH} got it, so its a decision that must be made at that moment
[11:11] {Threei}  it's not an exact science, can't count on things being precise to 1 cent
[11:11] {Threei}  right
[11:11] {Threei}  sometimes they overshoot a bit, sometimes stall right under the lione
[11:11] {JohnH} LVS @ 10:15 touched 1:1, but then retreated
[11:12] {JohnH} I didn't get out at 1:1 and then watched my profit fade away, until break even.
[11:12] {Threei}  no point in letting a trade that practically reached 1:12 to turn into a loss
[11:12] {Threei}  at the very least stop trailing is warranted
[11:13] {JohnH} right, I get THAT
[11:13] {JohnH} I get out at break even, then cry in my milk
[11:18] {Threei}  watching X again
[11:18] {Threei}  chart was shaping up for .40 break but dive undr .30 puts that on hold for now
[11:19] {dino} gpro spikes again
[11:20] {dino} invn drop
[11:22] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .40 break
[11:22] {Threei}  half lot
[11:23] {Threei}  Germany cuts solar incentives Apr 1
[11:23] {Threei}  look FSLR
[11:25] {JohnH} is that GN genuine news? clearly if it goes UP, then must be FSN?
[11:25] {Threei}  I am pretty sure it's FSN
[11:26] {JohnH} right, its politics, so some knew it was coming.
[11:26] {Threei}  look at FSLR daily chart,
[11:26] {Threei}  down from over 100 to 30
[11:27] {Threei}  and I've seen discussions of this cut here and there for a month at least
[11:27] {dino} pii sm s .20
[11:27] {JohnH} down from 175
[11:28] {JohnH} March '11
[11:28] {Threei}  yeah
[11:28] {Threei}  so, beaten down hard, bleak news are coming out, stock spikes...
[11:28] {Threei}  classic, isn't it
[11:28] {JohnH} yes
[11:29] {Threei}  proof of concept so to speak
[11:29] {JohnH} ahh, to be the fleecor, rather than the fleecee
[11:29] {JohnH} good to see a Bill C reference
[11:29] {Threei}  short seller at 37.65 rereads the news for the third time by now, trying to understand what just happened
[11:30] {JohnH} heh heh
[11:30] {JohnH} alright X, now do the right thing
[11:31] {Threei}  German Chancellor Merkel: a global financial transaction tax is not likely
[11:31] {Threei}  so, going to shoot yourself in the foot? by all means
[11:32] {Threei}  no go X
[11:32] {Threei}  glad I cut it to half lot
[11:32] {dino} bki drop
[11:33] {JohnH} I won't ever say that again
[11:33] {dino} vsm l .50
[11:50] {dino} pii stop -.38 big slip
[11:51] {Threei}  General Motors Corp CEO: Cannot predict Volt sales this year, but have resolved the issues with the electric car and the Volt is as safe as any traditional combustion engine vehicle - CNBC interview
[11:51] {Threei}  {Crash Dummies} Nope... not getting into that without new perks
[11:52] {rambler} finally.....morning all
[11:53] {Threei}  morning rambler
[11:53] {rambler} inyernet down this morning
[11:53] {rambler} internet
[11:53] {Threei}  wind?
[11:54] {rambler} not sure....tele as well
[11:55] {rambler} how goes the morning....?
[11:55] {Threei}  nice today
[11:55] {rambler} good to hear.....
[11:55] {Threei}  not exceptional but steady
[12:04] {dino} rkt sm l .75
[12:06] {dino} tea spike
[12:07] {andj} Good morning Threei
[12:14] {Threei}  andj :)
[12:14] {Threei}  FOMC vhanged the schedule
[12:14] {Threei}  rate decision is at 12:30
[12:15] {Threei}  economic forecats at 14:00
[12:15] {Threei}  Ben's conf call 14:15
[12:15] {dino} gpro keeps going
[12:15] {Threei}  The biggest unknown today is how the policy statement will handle the introduction of the new rate path forecasts, introduced to further the goal of increased Fed transparency. The current policy statement language says that conditions will "likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013." This language in the 12:30ET statement may be altered to better match the new rate forecasts, or it may stay unaltered to signify the earliest possible timeframe for rate tightening.
[12:23] {Threei}  - Given the significance of the introduction of this rate path forecast, it is unlikely that the Fed will make any additional policy changes today (i.e. QE3).
[12:23] {Threei}  - At his press conference at 14:15ET, Bernanke will likely spend the bulk of his time discussing and interpreting the new rate path forecasts and how it is increasing Fed transparency.
[12:23] {Threei}  so, as much as latest FOMC days became non-event, today's will be doubly so
[12:25] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break
[12:25] {Threei}  half lot
[12:26] {Threei}  if stays under 44
[12:27] {Threei}  no change to rate
[12:27] {dino} spike
[12:27] {Threei}  stays at .25% as expected
[12:28] {Threei}  Exceptionally low rates through at least 2014
[12:29] {andj} Is fcx because the last resistance was at 44?
[12:29] {Threei}  - Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate.
[12:29] {Threei}  it was a topping out bounce
[12:29] {Threei}  market spike ruined the setup
[12:30] {Threei}  but new one may be forming
[12:30] {Threei}  ugh, too fast
[12:31] {Threei}  44 break was the trigger but occured faster than I could type an alert
[12:32] {Threei}  ok, double top
[12:32] {Threei}  if stays under .10
[12:32] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  44 break
[12:32] {Threei}  half lot
[12:33] {Threei}  invalidated
[12:33] {dino} gut says up
[12:34] {Threei}  mine is silent like a drunken sailor in the morning
[12:36] {dino} pall spike
[12:37] {dino} bki to .40
[12:38] {dino} rkt to b/e
[12:39] {dino} out bki .41 +.91
[12:39] {Threei}  wtg
[12:39] {dino} ty
[12:39] {dino} rkt to .85 stingy
[12:50] {dino} .
[12:50] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .25 break
[12:50] {Threei}  half lot of course
[12:50] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[12:52] {Threei}  no go
[12:56] {thomcbell} wow slw
[13:00] {dino} rkt sm l .49
[13:02] {Threei}  market spikes with no setups
[13:03] {ese} not away......justing trying to book a hotel for 2 nights in Milan
[13:03] {Threei}  STT sells down hard
[13:05] {dino} odd
[13:06] {dino} out rkt .83, +.34
[13:07] {ese} it's about time HDY came around...still into it from yesterday at .40
[13:07] {rambler} wtg Dino....
[13:07] {dino} ty
[13:09] {ese} we need to think of another superlative for dino.......something like " holy fr...kin doodle...once again he!!!!!!!"
[13:09] {ese} nah.....too long
[13:09] {ese} ummmmmmmm
[13:09] {Threei}  lol
[13:09] {ese} eeeeeeeeyeowwwwwwzaaaaaa!!!!
[13:09] {ese} nah.........still too long
[13:10] {Threei} Long Setup:  STT  .60 break
[13:10] {Threei}  if stays above .50
[13:10] {ese} ya ok WTFG........wtfg...small caps for just ok big caps for amazing
[13:12] {Threei}  target 1:2
[13:12] {Threei}  but if you take a scalp, I'll understand
[13:12] {ese} lol
[13:12] {Threei}  :)
[13:14] {Threei}  new market spike
[13:15] {Threei}  STT is obviously moving against
[13:16] {Threei}  now it's moving with
[13:16] {Threei}  shrug
[13:18] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar Extending gains above $1.3090, 1-month high
[13:18] {Threei}  that's what a promise to keep rates at the bottom for 3 more years does
[13:18] {ese} l
[13:19] {Threei}  and of course:
[13:19] {Threei}  Some capital markets groups turn lower following FOMC statement- Returns on interest rate products will remain hard to come by for things like fixed annuities and money markets which appears to be resulting in some selling. Related (MET SCHW TRV HIG AMTD AFL EV LNC FII AB PRU )
[13:19] {Threei}  another hit under the belt for savers
[13:22] {rambler} STT stop..
[13:22] {dino} pii spike
[13:23] {Threei}  seond day in a row, morning is a thing iof beauty and everything after that is quite questionable
[13:27] {Threei} Short Setup: HIG  .30 break
[13:37] {thomcbell} rimm kangaroo vad
[13:38] {Threei}  .30 break would be a short trigger for that one
[13:38] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[13:44] {Threei}  valid as double top now
[13:44] {Threei}  wouldn't say it's the best of setups, but valid
[13:48] {Threei}  1:1
[13:49] {thomcbell} rimm 1:1
[13:49] {Threei}  nice
[13:50] {Threei}  let's trail HIG t .36
[13:50] {dino} wow stt
[13:50] {Threei}  wow it is
[13:59] {thomcbell} trailing stop to 16.26 on rimm
[13:59] {thomcbell} market showing quite a bit here
[14:00] {Threei}  FOMC forecast on wires now
[14:00] {Threei}  to juice things up again :)
[14:00] {dino} sm s life .01
[14:02] {Threei}  stop to .31 HIG
[14:03] {Threei}  no risk position
[14:03] {thomcbell} slw 33.65 short entry
[14:03] {thomcbell} 1/2 lot
[14:04] {thomcbell} rimm 2.5:1
[14:04] {thomcbell} covering balance
[14:04] {Threei}  wtg
[14:04] {Threei}  finally HIG
[14:04] {Threei}  half out
[14:04] {Threei}  took its sweet time, eh
[14:05] {Threei}  scalpers be happy
[14:05] {Threei}  I think it's worth a try for another leg down
[14:07] {Threei}  out in full
[14:07] {Threei}  these two trades cement the day as nicely profitable
[14:08] {thomcbell} using 33.77 stop on slw
[14:19] {dino} met drop
[14:19] {Threei}  MET is same as HIG
[14:19] {Threei}  affected by this FOMC
[14:21] {dino} met sm l .50
[14:31] {Threei}  works nicely
[14:31] {thomcbell} SLW out -0.12
[14:32] {dino} out met .70, +.20
[14:33] {dino} life to .90
[14:36] {dino} make it .85
[14:38] {dino} cov life .76, +.25
[14:41] {Threei}  wtg
[14:41] {Threei}  day shaped up nicely
[14:41] {Threei}  couple stops midday couldn't spoil it
[14:42] {Threei}  let's see if we can find couple finishing scalps
[14:42] {dino} ty
[14:42] {rambler} Vad, did you take a scalp on the STT trade ?
[14:43] {Threei}  no, that one got stopped
[14:43] {rambler} tks
[14:43] {Threei}  RIMM and HIG made up for that, twice over
[14:46] {Threei}  (US) Treasury Sec Geithner: Economy still undergoing damage from the financial crisis; markets alone cannot solve the economy's problems
[14:47] {Threei}  but gethtner can
[14:58] {rambler} FCX s 46.01
[14:58] {dino} nuva spike
[15:00] {rambler} out   .08
[15:01] {dino} nuva sm s break .25
[15:04] {rambler} can't short NUVA...
[15:05] {Threei}  oh god...
[15:05] {rambler} FCX salmon...
[15:05] {dino} cyber has it
[15:05] {Threei}  Davos: Capitalism no longer works
[15:05] {Threei}  imbeciles
[15:05] {dino} look at sell orders
[15:06] {Threei}  halted
[15:07] {Threei}  news pending
[15:07] {dino} they're going to screw me on that
[15:08] {Threei}  depends on news...
[15:15] {dino} medtronics losses bid for injunction
[15:29] {Threei}  ramp up into eod, IMO
[15:45] {Threei}  slow...
[15:45] {Threei}  near impossible to find the play
[15:50] {dino} looks like they make me hold overnight
[15:50] {Threei}  looks this way
[15:51] {Threei}  (EU) ECB now said to be discussing methods in which it could deal with any forced losses on Greece bonds - financial press
[15:51] {Threei}  - Reminder: Earlier today reports indicated that hope was being lost in the EU in reaching a voluntary debt agreement and that the ECB could potentially assume losses on Greece bond positions
[15:56] {Threei}  ok guys, thank you all
[15:56] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tonorrow
[15:58] {JK13} gn
[15:58] {Threei}  hold on
[15:58] {Threei}  wanted to show you one thing
[15:58] {rambler} cya tomorrow...
[15:58] {Threei}  just published:
[15:58] {Threei}