Tuesday, May 15, 2012

May 15 2012

Nicely profitable day which took us through the roller-coaster. Started with 3 wins out of 4 trades, then took one more stop... then targeted two trades (FAZ long and CAT short) - FAZ triggered and was stopped out by idiotic Greece headline which meant exactly nothing but impressed some quick readers, and CAT trade got invalidated. In a few minutes fog dissolved, and both of them proceeded to their original targets and beyond. We had to practically start the day anew - which we did very well, with two identical TNA trades (deja vu type, same setup, same stop, same target, both win) and a few more nicely working ones with just one stop. So... profit AND not boring, LOL.

Session Time: Tue May 15 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {Threei}  (GR) Independent Greeks Party Leader Kammenos: There is no deal on coalition govt, new elections are likely to take place (as expected)
[09:02] {Threei}  **NOTE: Timeframe for new elections expected to be in mid-June. Independent Greeks are an anti-bailout party.
[09:05] {scottie} gm
[09:07] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:08] {RonS} gm...eur getting hit
[09:09] {Threei}  as it well should... hi Ron
[09:09] {Threei}  negotiations with president to fom government aree over
[09:09] {Threei}  no can do
[09:11] {RonS} unreal...heard they are actually talking about a non-politician interim government
[09:11] {RonS} didn't greece have some military coups post-wwII?
[09:11] {Threei}  yeah, technocratic government was in discussion yesterday but no one believes it's anything but biding time till new election
[09:12] {Threei}  which should take place mi-June
[09:12] {dptl} gm
[09:12] {Threei}  and is likely to produce even less EU-friendly outcome
[09:12] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:13] {Threei}  in interesting turn of events, EU pfficials started talking about relaxing demands for Greece
[09:14] {RonS} Spanish yields spike to above 6.3% and Italian yields are now north of 5.8%
[09:15] {RonS} darn it and i was hoping for a spike open to short into...
[09:15] {Threei}  yeah... clear where it's all going
[09:17] {RonS} really like how coty is playing avp...
[09:23] {Threei}  EU carries out first air strikes against pirates on Somali mainland; no casualties reported
[09:23] {Threei}  what kind of strikes is that
[09:27] {Threei}  FCX begs to be a first short
[09:27] {RonS} tapped my inner nemo...bitch slap?  sorry janitor
[09:27] {Threei}  lol
[09:27] {Threei}  sleeps in...
[09:27] {Threei}  so are 5 more
[09:28] {Threei}  .20 break half lot if stays under .30
[09:29] {Threei}  .30 now
[09:29] {Threei}  if stays under .40
[09:30] {RonS} Greece will pay 400+ million to bond holdouts
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[09:32] {Threei}  .25 support from last dip
[09:32] {Threei}  needs to lose that to die
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .80 break
[09:35] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:38] {Threei}  trail to .86
[09:38] {Threei}  1:1
[09:39] {Threei}  to .81
[09:39] {Threei}  out in full
[09:39] {Threei}  .61
[09:40] {scottie} +.18, thanks Vad
[09:40] {Threei}  :)
[09:43] {dino} gj
[09:43] {Threei}  ty
[09:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .10 break
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  41
[09:44] {Threei}  frikin FCX
[09:45] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .20 break hl
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:46] {Threei}  change to .10 break
[09:46] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:47] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .85 break
[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:48] {Threei}  FCX target .25
[09:48] {Threei}  GDX .95
[09:49] {Threei}  out GDX
[09:49] {Threei}  half out FCX
[09:49] {Threei}  stop to .09
[09:50] {Threei}  treating most bounces as scalps, shorts will be fpr bigger moves
[09:51] {Threei}  out FCX in full
[09:51] {Threei}  that's 3 put of 4
[09:51] {dino} gj
[09:51] {Threei}  gotta stay flat at 10, some numbers are coming
[09:51] {Threei}  ty
[09:52] {Threei}  underestimated GDX a bit
[09:52] {Threei}  entry was absolutely perfect, look at 1 min
[09:58] {Threei}  both look good for another entry, just hate to do it right before the numbers
[09:58] {Threei}  will sit it out
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) MAY NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 29 V 26E
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .70 break
[10:02] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:02] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[10:03] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:03] {Threei}  Invalidated  TNA
[10:04] {Threei}  SLW no go
[10:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .60 break hl
[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:10] {Threei}  trarget .90
[10:11] {Threei}  change to "if holds .50"
[10:12] {Threei}  no
[10:12] {Threei}  backing off
[10:12] {Threei}  no pattern
[10:15] {dino} soryr late post, dhi l .00
[10:20] {dino} dhi to .15
[10:20] {Threei}  rinses...
[10:20] {Threei}  me no likely
[10:24] {dino} out +.15 dhi
[10:24] {RonS} nailed it...
[10:30] {Threei}  grrr TNA
[10:33] {dptl} got to go...unfortunatly :) see ya tomorrow all, have a good one
[10:33] {Threei}  take care dp
[10:36] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .90 break hl
[10:37] {Threei}  If holds  UNDER  .05
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:39] {Threei}  Invalidated  CAT
[10:40] {Threei}  FAZ target 1:2
[10:42] {Threei}  (GR) Greece confirms earlier reports that it will pay the May 15 bond
[10:42] {Threei}  and that kills our TZA tarde? sheesh
[10:43] {scottie} That's it for me see you tomorrow
[10:44] {Threei}  too soon
[10:44] {Threei}  long day ahead
[10:50] {Threei}  seems they work if we take the trade on second trigger
[10:50] {Threei}  look at CAT
[10:50] {Threei}  invalidated, then triggered again and worked
[10:50] {Threei}  and now FAZ
[11:03] {Threei}  grrr on both
[11:03] {Threei}  the timing of that idiotic headline was the worst possible
[11:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  51 break hl
[11:16] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:19] {Threei}  1:1
[11:19] {dino} shw drop
[11:20] {Threei}  (EU) IMF's Lagarde: we have to be technically prepared for anything; Greece needs to stay on its committed path- Believe that the ECB has room to move on lowering interest rates. - Would be difficult to measure the impacts from a Greece exit from the EMU
[11:21] {Threei}  JPMorgan Chase and Co DOJ also reportedly investigating the recent trading loss; unclear whether there any legal violations - financial press- Note: In the past week many various Govt agencies have begun to investigate the trade loss; including the SEC and Federal Reserve
[11:21] {dino} the will be masively prining euros soon
[11:22] {Threei}  with Germany fully isolated now, it becomes a strong possibility
[11:22] {Threei}  1:2, out
[11:22] {dino} qe(u)2 coming
[11:23] {Threei}  race to the bottom
[11:23] {Threei}  who sinks their currency faster
[11:23] {dino} the elections have gone for the salvation thru inflation route
[11:23] {Threei}  yup
[11:23] {Threei}  populist vote is usually for giveusmore solutions
[11:23] {dino} and they are going to get it...
[11:28] {_ristorates} where's the inflation?
[11:28] {Threei}  so... normally more printing = market goes up
[11:28] {Threei}  but this is not a normal case,
[11:28] {Threei}  because Euro printing sends USD up
[11:28] {Threei}  thus USD-denominated assets should drop
[11:28] {Threei}  so, we have a strong case for Fed to launch their own press
[11:28] {dino} did not happen that way in dec/Jan
[11:29] {dino} agree there, fed will join
[11:29] {_ristorates} crb getting crushed
[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  51 break hl
[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:30] {Threei}  deja vu
[11:31] {Threei}  1:1
[11:31] {dino} becn l .00
06[11:31] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a alarm clock
06[11:32] * nemo slaps Threei around with my medical appointment calendar
06[11:32] * Threei slaps nemo around a bit with a bottle of memory pills
[11:33] {Threei}  1:2, out
06[11:33] * nemo drinks Vad's vodka
[11:33] {Threei}  total deja vu
[11:33] {nemo} hope you took tna or upro
[11:33] {Threei}  two identical trades side by side
[11:33] {Threei}  twice
[11:33] {nemo} just brought it up, prefect set up
[11:33] {Threei}  see these two TNA spikes after 51 break?
[11:33] {Threei}  got both
[11:33] {nemo} most cool
[11:34] {nemo} of the spy 38.2 retracement from the December low
[11:34] {nemo} same play as yesterday
[11:34] {nemo} of course, I don't get back in time to take advantage of it, looks like it was early morning setup too
[11:35] {Threei}  get this nemo
[11:35] {Threei}  started morning fine, with 3 wins and one stop,
[11:35] {Threei}  then got into this pickle:
[11:35] {Threei}  bopight FAZ and intended to short CAT,
[11:36] {nemo} ahhhh
[11:36] {Threei}  Greece published idiotic headline that meant nothing but looked optimistic on a first read
[11:36] {nemo} damn, missed tihs trade, what a PERFECT setup
[11:36] {nemo} ahhh
[11:36] {Threei}  stopped FAZ by 1 cent, after which it proceeded to a target and further,
[11:36] {Threei}  and invalidated CAT, after which it proceeded to a target
[11:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .60 break
[11:37] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[11:38] {nemo} damn, if I had gotten home 10 minutes earlier
[11:41] {Threei}  no go
[11:49] {RonS} took becn .00 to .21  thanks dino
[11:49] {cipher} becn 00 to .27 thx dino
[11:53] {Threei}  nice one
[11:55] {Threei}  watching GDX for pullback entry
[11:56] {Threei}  .75 - .80 zone
[12:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .80 break
[12:01] {RonS} oh boy...Mitt Romney: $JPM Loss is Part of Free Market Risk
[12:01] {Threei}  sigh
[12:02] {Threei}  even if he is right, what is he doing saying it out loud
[12:02] {RonS} yep
[12:05] {Threei}  I have a feeling, this is going to be historic election
[12:06] {Threei}  .74 stop
[12:07] {Threei}  half out
[12:07] {Threei}  scalpers take your loot
[12:07] {Threei}  nice when they work as [lanned well in advance
[12:11] {Threei}  with these two TNAs and GDX back in the money
[12:11] {Threei}  rolercoaster day
[12:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  52 break
[12:21] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[12:22] {Threei}  Invalidated
[12:30] {RonS} wlt capitulatory volume...
[12:30] {Threei}  pulp...
[12:30] {Threei}  whwere is dino
[12:30] {Threei}  gremlins again or what
[12:31] {Threei}  nore how weak FCX is
[12:31] {Threei}  note
[12:36] {Threei}  gish... Europe can't live without drama, even in the most routine matters:
[12:36] {Threei}  French President Hollande en route to Berlin from Paris in a 2nd plane after 1st was hit by lightning
[12:37] {Threei}  The FBI in New York has opened an inquiry into JP Morgan Chase's $2 billion loss, sources say
[12:37] {Threei}  FBI?
[12:37] {Threei}  has world gone insane?
[12:53] {Beau} a late good morning
[12:53] {Threei}  morning beau
[12:53] {Threei}  or afternoon
[12:54] {nemo} fosl interesting here
[12:54] {Beau} how has the day been?
[12:54] {Threei}  rollercoaster but in profit
[12:55] {Beau} good
[13:38] {Threei}  FCX starts looking like serious breakdown in the making
[13:38] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[13:38] {Threei}  dino, gremlins?
[13:39] {RonS} dino lxu but be careful they had a plant explosion...
[13:41] {dino} no gremlins, real estate issues again
[13:42] {Threei}  ah
[13:42] {Threei}  ok FCX
[13:42] {dino} thx ron looking at it
[13:42] {Threei}  time to make new low
[13:43] {Threei}  here we go
[13:44] {Threei}  daily looks horrible, intraday is even worse, and copper drops
[13:44] {dino} fcx gap filled from dec
[13:45] {Threei}  let's cover half here
[13:46] {Threei}  .23
[13:46] {Threei}  stop to .32
[13:49] {dino} lxu smr l .61
[13:53] {dino} stop .44, -.17
[13:53] {Threei}  Greece could make 'orderly exit' from eurozone, IMF chief
[13:53] {Threei}  lord... let it out already
[13:54] {Threei}  can you imagine the agony of another election in a month
[13:54] {Threei}  bid 1/4 more FCX arpund .17
[13:55] {Threei}  direct hit
[13:56] {Threei}  stop to .26
[13:56] {Threei}  let's see what we can squeeze out of the last piece
[13:57] {Threei}  want it under .10
[14:11] {dino} lxu sm l .50
[14:15] {dino} out .14, +.64
[14:15] {Threei}  wtg
[14:15] {dino} ty and thx ron for heads up
[14:16] {RonS} yw
[14:16] {RonS} thanks for becn earlier
[14:17] {dino} np buddy
[14:17] {dino} looking at it again
[14:18] {RonS} "it's all good, it's all love"
[14:18] {RonS} my young so-cal dude boss' favorite saying...
[14:21] {dino} l .00 becn
[14:23] {cipher} +.10 becn thx dino
[14:23] {cipher} .96 -} .06
[14:25] {RonS} Angela Merkel arrives at Passport Control at Paris airport.
[14:25] {RonS} "Nationality?" asks the immigration officer.
[14:26] {RonS} "German," she replies
[14:26] {RonS} Occupation?"
[14:26] {RonS} "No, just here for a few days.
[14:26] {dino} gj cipher
[14:26] {Threei}  rofl
[14:26] {cipher} lol
[14:26] {dino} lol ron
[14:37] {dino} out becn ave .13 +.13
[14:38] {RonS} evep
[14:39] {dino} dk, oils getting killed
[14:44] {Threei}  FCX makes new lows... didn't get a setup to reshort it
[14:44] {RonS} all resource stocks...slw too
[14:52] {Threei}  under 33
[14:52] {Threei}  train wreck
[14:53] {RonS} copper to 3.51
[14:57] {RonS} man that gdx is just foogly...
[15:02] {Beau} foogly?
[15:02] {RonS} casual fugly...
[15:03] {Beau} oh.
[15:03] {RonS} short for freakin ugly of course...
[15:03] {RonS} :P
[15:04] {Beau} learn something every day.
[15:05] {Threei}  let's call it fubar'ed
[15:05] {Beau} ok but will  you respect them in the morning?
[15:07] {RonS} double coyote ugly...
[15:08] {RonS} wake up w/ arm around woman so ugly...you chew your arm off so as not to wake her up
[15:08] {RonS} then later chew your other arm off 'cause she will be looking for a one-armed man...
[15:09] {RonS} :O
[15:10] {dino} butterface still cracks me up
[15:11] {dino} just fell hard
[15:11] {RonS} cause for a triple bagger...
[15:12] {dino} new lows
[15:12] {RonS} one for her, one for you, and one for the dog so it won't howl...
[15:12] {dino} lol
[15:12] {dino} nice body, but-her-face
[15:14] {RonS} WSJ reports GM to stop buying ads on Facebook, sees them as ineffective
[15:15] {RonS} es fute buyers here pretty small...
[15:15] {RonS} getting overwhelmed
[15:18] {RonS} if you believe CNBC, then the reason for this drop is a transcript from a Greek meeting that indicates that 700 million in deposits (Euro) have left the banking system
[15:18] {RonS} ...John Corzine again?...
[15:20] {dino} that was out on wsj.com hours ago
[15:21] {RonS} ...guess they are slow readers...
[15:22] {dino} gaps below 12421, 2547, 1325, 1312
[15:22] {RonS} some have said if spx loses 1330 then 1280 in the offing...
[15:24] {dino} since may 1st (11 trade days) dji-5.5%, ndx -6.6%, s/p -6%., also if close negative dji neg 9/11 days, ndx neg 8/11, s&p neg 8/11
[15:24] {dino} feeling a bit extreme, but...
[15:25] {RonS} ...there is a big volume gap south of rut 772 to 740...
[15:27] {RonS} 300k es buyer here...
[15:27] {dino} gaps all over, s/p 1325,1312,1289,1257,1195,1155
[15:28] {RonS} but those are price gaps, no?
[15:28] {RonS} price and volume gaps get fast moves...
[15:29] {dino} y
[15:31] {RonS} lol... I'm perfectly hedged right now, I am drinking coffee and wearing Crest White Strips. (from twitter)
[15:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  GS  100 break small shares
[15:34] {Threei}  .85 stop
[15:34] {Threei}  1:2 target
[15:36] {Threei}  nah, not ready
[15:39] {Threei}  probably now
[15:39] {Threei}  looks better
[15:39] {Threei}  same setup
[15:40] {Threei}  1:1
[15:49] {Threei}  miners, mama mia
[15:50] {dino} becn l .00
[15:50] {dino} avp spike
[15:51] {Threei}  as sever as this selking looks, I don't have a sense it's a capitulation yet
[15:51] {Threei}  more downside in cards
[15:52] {Threei}  I knoe I repeat it many times, but it just keeps going down :)
[15:52] {Threei}  look GLD
[15:52] {Threei}  one thing that may bounce with any market support is X
[15:53] {Threei}  hit support from December on a sharp vertical bar
[15:53] {Threei}  gotta keep an eye on it tomorrow
[15:55] {Threei}  too bad we are running out of time, it starts forming bounce
[15:58] {dino} out becn -.02
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:00] {Threei}  nice day after all
[16:00] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow