Wednesday, May 16, 2012

May 16 2012

One of frustrating days - got perfect read on the direction and main levels and couldn't utilize it. Market jumped back and forth from one headline to another rinsing our entries. Good morning, disastrous midday and good finish with two wins taking the sting out of the cascade of rinses. Oh well.

Session Time: Wed May 16 00:00:00 2012
[08:30] {nemo} what was the news
[08:30] {Threei}  *(US) APR HOUSING STARTS: 717K V 685KE; BUILDING PERMITS: 715K V 730KE
[09:07] {nemo} "The Markets are currently like a strapless bra.1/2 folks wondering what's holding it up; other 1/2 waiting for it to drop so that they can grab the oppty with both hands"
[09:07] {Threei}  rofl
[09:07] {Threei}  good one
[09:14] {Threei}  (US) APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: 1.1% V 0.6%E; CAPACITY UTILIZATION: 79.2% V 79.0%E
[09:15] {Threei}  (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Europe should increasingly become a political union - crisis themes speech
[09:16] {ese} a few minutes to pop in and say hi.......Ottawa crew out of here tomorrow morning...will be home free
[09:16] {scottie} good morning
[09:16] {Threei}  ese, scottie :)
[09:16] {ese} Aye laddie......
[09:17] {ese} mornin vad
[09:17] {ese} hows the week goin.......everyone now filthy stinking rich
[09:18] {Threei}  not bad, not stellar
[09:18] {ese} Greece on the precipice eh........all you can say is wow......
[09:18] {Threei}  yeah... new election
[09:19] {Threei}  which is likely to produce even less EU-friendly result
[09:19] {Threei}  not very surprising though, it was moving this direction for a good while already
[09:19] {ese} they only have a couple of months then there broke.......if I was the rest of the EU i'd cut em off....let em go broke
[09:20] {Threei}  that's what is going to happen eventually
[09:20] {Threei}  EU just foesn't want to face the reality
[09:22] {ese} all kinds of things to happen then...curency devaluation......won't be able to afford anything or   "travel"......they be forced to say there all of them......thats a good thing.
[09:22] {ese} stay
[09:23] {dptl} gm
[09:23] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:23] {ese} dp
[09:24] {dino} gm
[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:24] {RonS} gm
[09:25] {ese} speaking of curency devaluation.....went to buy my faorite Reeces pieces chocolate bar the other day and it cost $.25 more....i was short the .25....really ticked me off
[09:25] {Beau} good morning all
[09:25] {dino} lol ese
[09:25] {ese} anybody on this board ever been on Reeces peices withdrawl before........damn it's nasty
[09:26] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:26] {ese} beau
[09:26] {ese} dino
[09:26] {ese} ron
[09:26] {RonS} ese
[09:26] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:28] {Beau} ese shift to bourbon, better for you.
[09:28] {ese} all carry on.......i have a show to put on with my Ottawa crew here at 11:00am and we got a sound check and setup here in an hour......catch ya later
[09:28] {Threei}  have fun ese
[09:28] {dino} cya
[09:28] {ese} bourbon Reeces peices...........???????? gonna reccommend that to the company
[09:29] {ese} cya
[09:29] {Threei}  feels to me like technical bounce
[09:29] {Threei}  selling is likely to take over at some point
[09:29] {Threei}  let's see if we can spot it
[09:29] {Threei}  activity is likely to be spread over the day more evenly
[09:30] {Threei}  X is a long candidate identified yesterday
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  X  .15 break hl
[09:32] {Threei}  If holds  24 
[09:33] {dino} met l .25
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:36] {dino}  met stop -.15
[09:36] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .90 break hl
[09:38] {thomcbell} gm long setup Vad?
[09:38] {Threei}  change to .95 break
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .05 
[09:38] {cipher} tna l .17
[09:39] {Threei}  GM... if pulls back to 22 for double bottom
[09:39] {Threei}  FCX 1:1
[09:40] {scottie} FCX +.10 ty Vad
[09:41] {Threei}  yw
[09:42] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .50 break
[09:42] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:44] {dino} met l .99
[09:44] {Threei}  (GE) German Chancellor Merkel: To make statement at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT); No topic presented
[09:44] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:44] {Threei}  sounds ominous
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .40 break
[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[09:45] {cipher} out tna -.18
[09:45] {dino} the occupation has begun, merkel
[09:45] {Threei}  lol
[09:45] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .50 break
[09:45] {Threei}  so, want to partial there
[09:46] {Threei}  and try to ride the breakout
[09:46] {Threei}  half out
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to .38
[09:47] {Threei}  1/4 more out .58
[09:47] {Threei}  stop to .49
[09:47] {dino} CHKpD crushed
[09:47] {Threei}  out in full
[09:47] {Threei}  .65
[09:48] {Threei}  clean, fast, executable, and laid out in advance
[09:48] {Threei}  can they all be like this?
[09:48] {scottie} +.10 only, patience.. ty Vad
[09:48] {Threei}  yw...
[09:48] {Threei}  this one was really worth more
[09:48] {scottie} I can see that
[09:48] {Threei}  look, 1:4
[09:48] {dino} chkpd smr l .53
[09:50] {Threei}  X rinse
[09:52] {dino} out met .19, +.20
[09:52] {Threei}  wtg
[09:52] {dino} wdc sm l .74
[09:54] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .50 break
[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .60 
[09:55] {dino} stop chkpd -.33
[09:56] {nemo} markets moving higher
[09:57] {Threei}  so either FCX invalodates,
[09:57] {Threei}  or stays weak and confirms the setup
[09:57] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:57] {Threei}  volume dries up though...
[09:57] {Threei}  maybe reconfigure it for .60 break
[09:58] {Threei}  half lot
[09:58] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .60 break
[09:58] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[10:03] {nemo} cree
[10:05] {RonS} got a walmart contract
[10:05] {RonS} exclusive outdoor lighting supplier
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .70 break
[10:08] {Threei}  If holds  .80 
[10:10] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .10 break
[10:10] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[10:14] {Threei}  change SLW to .20 break
[10:14] {Threei}  if holds .25
[10:15] {Threei}  invalidated
[10:15] {Threei}  no go FCX
[10:16] {Threei}  no top yet
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .40 break
[10:23] {Threei}  hl
[10:23] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[10:26] {scottie} lvs valid?
[10:27] {Threei}  yes
[10:27] {Threei}  not anymore
[10:27] {Threei}  looking if worth a cnage to .30
[10:27] {Threei}  change
[10:29] {Threei}  unclear everywheree
[10:30] {Threei}  market wait to hear what frau Merkel got to say?
[10:30] {nemo} Op Ex week too
[10:30] {dptl} got to leave early again....see ya tomorrow all
[10:30] {Threei}  take care dp
[10:31] {Threei}  today's volume is noticeably lower than yesterday
[10:32] {Threei}  sheeeesh
[10:32] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel said to be planning to name Altmaier as new enrivonmental minister following the speculated resignation of Roettgen - financial press
[10:32] {Threei}  whotf cares
[10:34] {Threei}  frikin LVS
[10:45] {dino} met l .00
[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .40 break
[10:51] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .60 break
[10:51] {Threei}  ugh, late
[10:52] {Threei}  CAT 1:1
[10:52] {scottie} couldn't short cat
[10:53] {Threei}  ugh
[10:53] {dino} met stopped
[10:53] {Threei}  available here
[10:53] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:54] {RonS} wow scottie...who you w/?
[10:54] {scottie} ?
[10:54] {RonS} broker
[10:54] {scottie} Disnat
[10:55] {scottie} I use DDExtra
[10:56] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[10:56] {Threei}  was kind enough to come back for us
[10:56] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:56] {Threei}  whew
[10:56] {Threei}  finally nailed that elusive reversal
[10:58] {Threei}  wow, too soon on CAT exit
[11:05] {Threei}  (GR) Germany BdB banking association chief: Greece may be better off dealing with debt and structural issues outside the euro- It is right to think about alternatives and particularly whether Greece would not be better able to solve its problems using its own currency.
[11:06] {Threei}  (EU) ECB said to have halted monetary policy operations to certain Greece banks
[11:06] {dino} cutting them off?
[11:06] {Threei}  at least testing I guess
[11:08] {RonS} ...why no bank run yet? who would be dumb enough to have any euros in a Greek bank?
[11:08] {Threei}  1B left Greek banks last week
[11:08] {RonS} ya, but i mean a real run...
[11:09] {RonS} followed up by riots and water cannons, so nemo will be happy
[11:12] {Threei}  he needs to be in the middle of it, pillaging... then he will be happy
[11:12] {RonS} lol...see a ko short setting up?
[11:14] {Threei}  could be a double bottom just as well...
[11:14] {Threei}  .10 break would be a long
[11:14] {Threei}  higher second bottom
[11:15] {Threei}  76 break is kind of short signal but will depend on SPY very much
[11:16] {Threei}  my inclination would be to go for long and skip the short
[11:18] {Threei}  wow
[11:18] {Threei}  greece headline changes by minute
[11:19] {Threei}  now it's EU still considers
[11:19] {Threei}  market feels like as a frog in a football
[11:27] {RonS} nbg short?
[11:27] {RonS} :D
[11:27] {Threei}  yikes
[11:27] {Threei}  lol
[11:27] {Threei}  made me look
[11:30] {RonS} call pulp movement
[11:32] {dino} hig l .76
[11:34] {dino} qcom l .70
[11:36] {nemo} aem looks weak
[11:38] {nemo} anf buyer .95
[11:39] {Threei}  GR) Hearing rumor that Greece could be limiting withdrawls from depositors at some banks to �50 - CNBC's Simon Hobbs
[11:39] {Threei}  but of course
[11:40] {Threei}  saw it all in Ukraine in 1990s
[11:40] {Threei}  so not pretty
[11:42] {dino} qcom stop -.20
[11:42] {RonS} got greeked...
[11:42] {RonS} took -.10 here
[11:44] {dino} things are whippy
[11:48] {dino} met l .45 stop .39
[11:49] {Threei}  Greece events speed up... I won't be too surprised if they can't hold it together to the next election
[11:49] {Threei}  KO 1:1
[11:50] {Threei}  kool beans
[11:51] {Threei}  1:2, out
[11:51] {Threei}  thanks Ron
[11:51] {RonS} np
[11:52] {Threei}  MET works... good entry dino
[11:53] {Threei}  not my kind, I'd rather wait for .40 breakdown to short... your read was right
[11:55] {RonS} dino look crk last 2 days
[11:56] {RonS} 29% float short...
[11:57] {dino} ty
[11:58] {thomcbell} gdx big up move 
[11:59] {dino} qcom rinsed
[11:59] {dino} crk, dk, oils just get crushed lately
[12:02] {RonS} wow...crk in biz since do they not go bk or get bought?
[12:03] {Threei}  twitter is relentless
[12:03] {Threei}  Greek banks not distributing money anymore, instead dispensing olives and olive oil
[12:03] {RonS} was a currency
[12:03] {Threei}  This is how the rest of Europe gets the drunken dinner guest to leave, they close the bar.
[12:03] {dino} dri spike
[12:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 breeak hl
[12:11] {Threei}  stop under .65
[12:13] {dino} dri sm s .50
[12:13] {Threei}  nah
[12:14] {dino} bstop is.67
[12:14] {dino} stopped
[12:18] {Threei}  does JCP have any bounce in it or it's damaged goods...
[12:18] {Threei} Short Setup: JCP  .70 break hl
[12:19] {Threei}  aggressive for .60
[12:19] {Threei}  .82 stop
[12:19] {Threei}  not available here
[12:21] {Threei}  good thing, turns out
[12:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .70 break
[12:25] {Threei}  play for SPY .50 breakdown
[12:25] {Threei}  which should launch the panic wave and take it to red today
[12:27] {Threei}  stop under .60, target .90
[12:29] {dino} dri, wtf!
[12:29] {Threei}  JCP... worked on second break
[12:29] {Threei}  still unavailable though, lol
[12:31] {Threei}  another headline goosed the nmarket:
[12:31] {Threei}  (US) Fed's Bullard: Fed remains on a policy hold because policy is already ultra-easy- - Operation Twist will continue to alter the balance sheet for some time to come despite its conclusion at the end of June. - Economy has been outperforming expectations since last autumn.
[12:47] {RonS} de sm l .60
[12:47] {Threei}  wow JCP
[12:49] {Threei} Long Setup:  JPM  .40 break
[12:50] {Threei}  If holds  .30  for day traders .35 for scalpers
[12:50] {Threei}  target .65
[12:54] {Threei}  stop to .34 for day traders too
[12:55] {Threei}  SPY again looks breakdownish
[12:55] {Threei}  better tighten the stop
[12:55] {scottie} .
[12:55] {Threei}  crap, TZA got away
[12:58] {Threei}  out
[13:00] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .30 break
[13:00] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[13:03] {Threei}  what the deuce... not reading it right in the afternoon at all
[13:07] {RonS} out de -.10 no market help
[13:15] {_dyndul} is the CAT still valid as it stayed in the 40 cent range, correct?
[13:16] {dino} i'm off today too 3i
[13:16] {Threei}  looks like, but I'd really like to see SPY finally losing .50 for this short to work
[13:16] {Threei}  if SPY holds this level, it will eventually bounce, killing the short trades
[13:17] {Threei}  I know why dino... headlines copming one after another
[13:17] {Threei}  ruining technical read
[13:17] {_dyndul} like right now?
[13:18] {Threei}  yeah
[13:19] {Threei}  and look:
[13:19] {Threei}  13:19(GR) Greek Bank Support Fund Chief: To allocate �18B in bridge recapitalization funding to four largest Greek banks by next week
[13:19] {Threei}  which satisfies one of urgent demands by ECB
[13:20] {Threei}  and market reverses up in hope this thing may still get duct-taped
[13:20] {Threei}  not much of course, but illustrates the point of market beeing at mercy of news today
[13:22] {RonS} dammmit...was tracking wlk and it jumped 60 cents
[13:23] {RonS} no, .90
[13:23] {RonS} ...this is reminding me of the Hank Paulson days...
[13:24] {RonS} amazing to me that some short never shot that bastard
[13:24] {Threei}  lol
[13:35] {Threei}  as foretold... .50 break took SPY into red
[13:36] {Threei}  most offensive to me is that seeing it coming I haven't found the way to profit from it
[13:36] {Threei}  hate when this happens
[13:36] {dino} feels like we go for 11 of last 12 days down
[13:36] {Threei}  yes... and all kinds of pndits scream how oversold we are
[13:37] {Threei}  littlw do they know... we can get much oversolder
[13:38] {Threei}  like I said a few days ago, we are in a very unusual market where news is not discounted, and developments keep everyone genuinely confused
[13:38] {Threei}  New study shows high-fructose corn syrup can make you both fat and stupid
[13:38] {Threei}  hmmmm
06[13:39] * Threei spits out a gallon of corn syrup he drunk over last 6 minutes
[13:41] {Threei}  see how CAT short finally worked?
[13:41] {Threei}  not even speaking of TZA and FAZ longs... all of them were tied into SPY break of support
[13:42] {_dyndul} everything started dropping when SPY broke
[13:42] {Threei}  yup, that .50 support was a key level
[13:43] {Threei}  12:25] {Threei} play for SPY .50 breakdown
[13:43] {Threei}  [12:25] {Threei} which should launch the panic wave and take it to red today
[13:43] {Threei}  can't believe I had it so clearly and haven't utilized it
[13:44] {Threei}  I'll be back in 15 min
[13:49] {RonS} dino, itri
[13:53] {dino} news?
[13:53] {RonS} none...unless greece has banned water...
[13:54] {dino} lol
[13:54] {dino} would imagine they are drinking heavily over there
[13:54] {RonS} dicey imo w/ low vol and 40 mil outstanding...buyers strike could get it real ugly
[13:56] {dino} itri sm l .86
[13:59] {Threei}  back
[13:59] {Threei}  wtf
[14:00] {Threei}  FOMC minutes
[14:00] {dino} out itri .16, +.30 ty ron
[14:01] {Threei}  (GR) Latest Greece political poll opinion results estimates Syriza party with 22% support; Pasok party at 14%; New Democrats (ND) at 19.5%
[14:01] {Threei}  that confirms that next election will be evenmore EU-unfriendly
[14:02] {Threei}  the pnly thing that could prop the market is from FOMC minutes:
[14:02] {Threei}  The April FOMC decision held rates unchanged and reiterates the low rate pledge through late 2014
[14:02] {Threei}  see what I mean by frog in a footbal market?
[14:07] {nemo} just leave bunny out of it
[14:09] {Threei}  if you insist
[14:10] {RonS} wow qcom
[14:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .55 break
[14:14] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[14:14] {Threei}  very tight stop,
[14:14] {Threei}  no go
[14:19] {Threei}  another case of rinse
[14:19] {Threei}  this is my fate today it seems
[15:01] {dino} well, we filled 1325 gap
[15:01] {dino} next 12421, 2547, 1312
[15:05] {RonS} seems like a lot of pain for essentially a flat day...
[15:06] {Threei}  true
[15:11] {Threei}  paun is coming from the fact that opening gave hope to bulls... and then that hope was erased
[15:17] {RonS} hlf spike
[15:18] {RonS} nus trying to follow
[15:20] {RonS} kaboom
[15:21] {dino} hlf sm s .30
[15:23] {dino} cov .60, +.70 ty ron
[15:23] {Threei}  nice
[15:25] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .10 break
[15:25] {Threei}  If holds  21 
[15:26] {dino} nus sm s .75
[15:28] {Threei}  this entry is aimed at 133 SPY break
[15:28] {Threei}  if we get it, it should work for about 15 cents at least
[15:28] {Threei}  maybe more
[15:28] {dino} cov nus .45, +.30
[15:28] {Threei}  ok
[15:28] {Threei}  lwet's go TZA
[15:29] {dino} thx again ron for heads up. gets me back to just about even
[15:29] {Threei}  great job
[15:31] {dino} hlf, nus spike again
[15:31] {dino} mlm blood
[15:31] {RonS} mlm
[15:31] {Threei}  offering half .19
[15:32] {dino} vmc drop
[15:32] {Threei}  half out
[15:33] {Threei}  stop to .09
[15:33] {nemo} einhorn just shit on mlm hehehehehe
[15:35] {Threei}  scalpers win
[15:35] {RonS} mlm halt circuit...people saying if only the market got as excited about his longs
[15:36] {Threei}  Martin Marietta Materials Inc Halted: Einhorn makes cautious comments at Ira Sohn conf- Einhorn: Recent earnings have benefited from stimulus that is winding down
[15:36] {Threei}  heh
[15:37] {Threei}  problem with all stimuluses...
[15:37] {Threei}  they end!
[15:37] {Threei}  and you are left with more debt
[15:38] {RonS} The term "master of the universe" is overused, but Einhorn just made $300M+ of value disappear in seconds
[15:39] {RonS} new term...mlm got Einhorn'd...
[15:40] {Threei}  lol
[15:40] {Threei}  cramerized is well-known one
[15:46] {Threei}  new breakdown is coming it seems
[15:46] {Threei}  if you are up to try it,
[15:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .90 break
[15:47] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
[15:48] {Threei}  offer half .97 - .98
[15:48] {Threei}  and let's try for 26 break on another half
[15:51] {Threei}  come on FAZ
[15:51] {Threei}  use these last minutes to, umm... how do you spell it
[15:51] {Threei}  iksplode
[15:51] {dino} dks drop
[15:51] {Threei}  now... that's spelling I am proud of
[15:51] {dino} sm l .00
[15:52] {Threei}  offer 1/4 more .04
[15:52] {dino} out .53, 
[15:52] {dino} +.53
[15:52] {Threei}  wtg
[15:52] {Threei}  nice finish
[15:52] {dino} some crazy moves last hour
[15:52] {Threei}  ok
[15:52] {Threei}  last piece, offer .09
[15:53] {RonS} lol...David Einhorn is short the shares of $DKS Dicks sporting goods.
[15:53] {dino} wow got out way early
[15:54] {Threei}  stop .89 for the last 1/4
[15:56] {RonS} Einhorn a Mayan?
[15:57] {Threei}  lol
[15:57] {Threei}  yesss
[15:57] {Threei}  out .09
[15:57] {RonS} gj
[15:57] {Threei}  whew... happy to end this day with these two wins
[15:58] {Threei}  day when you have the right read and have difficulties profiting from it...
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:59] {dino} thx all, appreciate the ideas
[15:59] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:59] {Threei}  you did outstanding job dino
[15:59] {Threei}  digging out of the morning hole
[15:59] {Threei}  takes guts
[16:01] {dino} or luck :D
[16:01] {Threei}  never hurts, lol
[16:02] {Threei}  but gotta have prepared mind
[16:02] {dino} gn all