Thursday, May 17, 2012

May 17 2012

Beautiful day with many nice wins ranging from scalps to 1:3. Even couple rinses couldn't spoil this day, one of those when patterns just work. Go over trades, enjoy finding the order in what many consider chaos.

Session Time: Thu May 17 00:00:00 2012
[08:08] {nemo} miss me?
[08:29] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 370K V 365KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.265M V 3.230ME
[08:53] {nemo} probably dead day
[08:57] {Threei}  unless fear reappears
[09:15] {Beau} good morning all
[09:15] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {Threei}  Ron... the gem you missed yesterday:
[09:16] {Threei}  [15:59] {Threei} takes guts
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:01] {dino} or luck :D
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:01] {Threei} never hurts, lol
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:02] {Threei} but gotta have prepared mind
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:02] {Threei} or in nemo case, mind
[09:16] {Threei}  [16:02] {Threei} awww... Ron doesn't see it
[09:17] {dptl} gm
[09:17] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:17] {RonS} one
[09:18] {Threei}  thought you'd enjoy it
[09:18] {Threei}  and, for the next month or so I do not open any boxes from nemo with ticking sound inside
[09:19] {Threei}  even though he takes pain to write "this is not a bomb" on the side
[09:23] {dino} gm
[09:23] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:23] {dino} distraction day for me.
[09:28] {Threei}  gotta waiot first minutes, no clear opening play
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .90 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:31] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:33] {Threei}  no go
[09:35] {Threei} Short Setup: AIG  .70 break
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .80
[09:36] {Threei}  target 1:3
[09:37] {Threei}  1:1, firdt poece out
[09:37] {Threei}  piece too
[09:37] {Threei}  1:2
[09:37] {Threei}  target hit
[09:37] {Threei}  out +.30
[09:38] {Threei}  1:4... darn overachiever
[09:39] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .15 break
[09:39] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[09:40] {Threei}  let's make it hl
[09:40] {Threei}  SPY is a bit overstretched
[09:41] {Threei}  bounce is probably in cards now
[09:43] {Threei}  needless to say, invalidated
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .60 break
[09:43] {Threei}  If holds  .55
[09:44] {Threei}  half out
[09:44] {Threei}  stop .59
[09:45] {Threei}  was even nice enough to come back for pickup
[09:45] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:46] {Threei}  wow HLF
[09:46] {Threei}  dino stock
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .80 break hl
[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:48] {Threei}  out FAZ
[09:49] {Threei}  no go IWM
[09:50] {Threei}  ah
[09:50] {Threei}  Euro vs US Dollar (EU) Renewed market chatter that major European countries might delay ESM ratification vote- Germany, France and Netherlands are mentioned
[09:51] {Threei} Long Setup:  GAS  .20 breal smaller shares
[09:51] {Threei}  GS'
[09:51] {Threei}  sorry
[09:52] {Threei}  grrr... got away?
[09:53] {Threei}  ne entry on pullback for now
[09:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .75 break hl
[09:55] {dino} watching gaps 12421, 2547, 1312
[09:55] {Threei}  If holds  .65
[09:56] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:57] {Threei}  1:1
[09:59] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:59] {Threei}  whoa
[09:59] {dino} here comes the capitulation
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) MAY PHILADELPHIA FED: -5.8 V 10.0E
[10:00] {dino} 2547 filled
[10:00] {Threei}  *(US) APR LEADING INDICATORS: -0.1% V +0.1%E
[10:00] {Threei}  was that a timely exit on TNA ot what
[10:03] {Threei}  notice GDX strength
[10:03] {Threei}  ignored this breakdown
[10:04] {Threei}  went up nicely with slightest sign of market bounce
[10:04] {Threei}  let's wait for pullback on it
[10:05] {Threei}  nice morning so far, can afford to wait for a solid play
[10:07] {dino} dhi l .50
[10:08] {dino} dks sm l .99
[10:12] {dino} itri sm l .50
[10:15] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .60 break hl
[10:15] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:15] {Threei}  GDX just won't give us a chance
[10:15] {Threei}  LVS target 1:2
[10:16] {Threei}  1:1
[10:16] {Threei}  1:2, out
[10:16] {Threei}  nice and easy
[10:16] {Threei}  two chances to enter, then never looked back
[10:17] {thomcbell} vad that was the best 15 minute candle on spy i have seen in a long while
[10:17] {thomcbell} with volume
[10:18] {Threei}  selling one you mean?
[10:18] {Threei}  oh, 15 min
[10:19] {Threei}  I don't routinely watch that time frame so didn't get it at once
[10:19] {dino} out dhi .67, +.17
[10:19] {dino} out dks .32, +.33
[10:19] {Threei}  nice
[10:19] {Threei}  dino, look HLF
[10:20] {dino} giving back some of yesterdays gain
[10:20] {thomcbell} setups are very fast Vad -
[10:21] {thomcbell} feel like the money is made when we look for spots for reversals and then quickly frame a quick trade
[10:21] {Threei}  those that worked today with exception of GS gave second cnaces for entry though
[10:21] {dino} itri stop -.10
[10:21] {Threei}  chances
[10:24] {dino} qcom sm l .75
[10:28] {dino} fosl sm l .80
[10:30] {Threei}  10:30(EU) IMF: ECB may need to pursue more unconventional measures, ECB has scope for more easing
[10:30] {_ristorates} gdx?
[10:30] {Threei}  watching
[10:31] {Threei}  want deeper pullback probably
[10:33] {RonS} siro blood
[10:35] {Threei}  HLF
[10:36] {dino} wdc sm l .05
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .15 break hl
[10:37] {Threei}  If holds  41
[10:38] {dino} siro sm l .55
[10:40] {dino} lqdt blood
[10:41] {Threei}  half out .27
[10:42] {Threei}  stop to .14
[10:43] {dino} lqdt sm l .05
[10:43] {RonS} gdx .14 to .32  thanks 3i
[10:43] {Threei}  :)
[10:44] {Threei}  out in full
[10:46] {dino} lqdt stop -.30
[10:48] {RonS} surprised you took that dino since you were in the middle of a gap
[10:49] {RonS} reviewed this pig on earnings move...physical auctioneer trading a 45 p/e...r u kidding me?
[10:51] {dino} yeah, see that gap 55 area, may try then
[10:51] {dino} siro stop -.30
[10:52] {dino} dks sm l .01
[10:54] {thomcbell} nice cup and handle trying to form on 1 min gdx
[10:55] {thomcbell} at least a minute ago that was the case
[10:55] {Threei}  I was looking at it too
[10:55] {Threei}  wanted it to toghten the range
[10:55] {Threei}  tighten
[10:55] {Threei}  instead it broke the lower limit
[10:57] {scottie} sdf
[10:58] {Threei}  who are you calling sdf?
[10:58] {scottie} testing mirc
[10:58] {Threei}  works?
[10:58] {scottie} ok
[10:58] {Threei}  cool
[10:58] {Threei}  too bad you missed this morning though...
[10:59] {scottie} will be back shortly. bye everyone
[10:59] {Threei}  GDX .50 break remains a possibility
[10:59] {Threei}  take care scottie
[11:00] {Threei}  it's a kind of on again off again, depending on consolidation
[11:00] {Threei}  one little pullback please
[11:00] {Threei}  to .45
[11:00] {Threei}  then break
[11:01] {Threei}  not sure about this break...
[11:01] {Threei}  really want some consolidation first
[11:01] {Threei}  if you go for it, keep .39 stop
[11:01] {Threei}  I'd wait
[11:02] {Threei}  1:1 for impatient ones
[11:03] {RonS} kex kicked
[11:03] {nemo} looks good to 42 if it clears .80
[11:03] {nemo} watch tna for possible DB bounce
[11:05] {Threei}  ugh... now I regret not grabbing GDX :)
[11:06] {dino} lqdt sm l .00
[11:09] {dino} lqdt stopped again
[11:17] {dino} wow lqdt drops again
[11:18] {RonS} kex
[11:21] {nemo} IWM near LOD
[11:25] {nemo} spy looking like long setup and IWM too... not ready to call it, but we are getting hammers here at IWM DB support
[11:26] {nemo} there goes spy, see if IWM follows
[11:35] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .8 break hl
[11:35] {Threei}  If holds  .70  of course
[11:36] {nemo} nice, that is fib retrace on a breakout level, and a spy db on the day
[11:37] {Threei}  1:1
[11:45] {RonS} bloomberg saying moodys will downgrade spanish banks later today
[11:47] {RonS} mdvn dive
[11:48] {Threei}  done with TNA
[11:49] {Threei}  amazingly smooth day for such nervous environment
[11:50] {Threei}  - Nervous traders drove European equities lower overnight after press reports that Spanish bank Bankia has seen $1B in deposit withdrawals over the last week
[11:50] {Threei}  he'h
[11:50] {Threei}  I wonder who still keeps anything in those banks
[11:54] {RonS} dino, you here?
[11:57] {dino} sort of
[11:57] {dino} real estate issues, sold a foreclosure flip, and just had sub-division inquiry, so pulling maps, etc
[12:03] {dptl} got to go ,see ya tomorrow all
[12:03] {Threei}  take care dp
[12:05] {Threei}  no fresh news
[12:05] {Threei}  what a misery in the market eh
[12:05] {Threei}  selling just resumes at every chance
[12:12] {dino} 1312 filled
[12:12] {dino} next gaps 12421, 2495, 1289
[12:14] {RonS} hey Beau...
[12:15] {Beau} yes sir?
[12:15] {RonS} familiar with the McClellan?
[12:16] {Beau} no, don't recognize it
[12:16] {Beau} what where who?
[12:17] {RonS}
[12:17] {Beau} oh.  will look
[12:18] {RonS} an extreme reading in this of -80 to -100 marks oversold conditions
[12:18] {RonS} we should hit -100 today
[12:19] {RonS} has a history of marking a short term low
[12:20] {Beau} think it is one of the studies in Laser when I get there.
[12:21] {Threei}  I don't thin Laer has it
[12:22] {Beau} didn't remember.
[12:22] {Threei}  no, looking at studies available right now
[12:23] {Beau} but thanks ron for heads up. need all the learning can get
[12:23] {RonS}
[12:24] {Threei}  one thing to have in mind though
[12:25] {Threei}  oscillators work nicely in ranging market
[12:25] {RonS} the other day when you asked if we were oversold...the tecnical answer was no becuse the McClellan was not there yet
[12:25] {Threei}  strong trends tend to throw them off
[12:26] {Threei}  be on a lookout for situation where oscillator says "oversold,"
[12:26] {Threei}  then price pauses for a while, or stages a small bounce,
[12:27] {Threei}  then all of a sudden you see that even though there was no significant recover if at all, oscillator moves away from oversold sondition again
[12:27] {Threei}  condition
[12:27] {Threei}  and price breaks down and continues down
[12:27] {Threei}  especially stochastic is prone to that
[12:28] {Threei}  works like charm in a range, very treacherous in trend
[12:28] {RonS} yep...some know how to check this intraday to guard against just what you are talking about
[12:30] {RonS} shocking...Obama crushes Romney in Ivy League donations
[12:31] {Threei}  I am all for education... but sheesh... must it be so left-leaning?
[12:31] {Beau} is tna c&h
[12:31] {Threei}  price yes
[12:31] {Threei}  volume is not exactly right
[12:32] {dino} everyones a democrat until they have to pay taxes
[12:32] {Threei}  sometimes I think if I walk into any campus dressed as Karl Marx, all fine cheeses and best women will be broguht to my feet
[12:39] {thomcbell} long setup invn 10.03 break if holding 9.95
[12:48] {thomcbell} invn 1:1 kind of
[12:48] {thomcbell} coudlnt really buy it and good luck selling it at 10.13
[12:49] {dino} i'm in at .05
[12:58] {dino} out flat
[13:03] {dino} becn l .76
[13:03] {Threei}  what will, I, Mark Zuckerberg, do with the $18 billion I�m expected to earn from Facebook�s IPO? Well, I�m considering buying Greece, but that would still leave me with $18 billion.
[13:03] {Threei}  lol
[13:04] {Threei}  although as far as market-related jokes go, nemo's "strapless bra" is a winner of this month
[13:05] {Beau} ?
[13:06] {Threei}  [09:07] {nemo} "The Markets are currently like a strapless bra.1/2 folks wondering what's holding it up; other 1/2 waiting for it to drop so that they can grab the oppty with both hands"
[13:06] {dino} i still like the merkel occupation joke
[13:06] {Threei}  yup, winner too
[13:07] {Beau} that was a good one nemo  your cup runeth over.
[13:07] {RonS} he stole it from bunny...
[13:11] {RonS} seems like energy stocks are starting to catch a the ERX?
[13:11] {Threei}  38 break
[13:11] {Threei}  begs to be bought
[13:15] {RonS} wow look at cpno chart...and it pays 8%!
[13:22] {Threei}  56% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Marijuana
[13:37] {Threei}  be back in 30 min guys
[13:37] {Threei}  (GR) Syriza Party leader Tsipras: Prepared to stop debt payments if Europe cuts financing- Comments that Greece should remain as part of the EMU; EMU faces breakup if Greece does fail
[13:38] {Threei}  they are playing chicken
[13:38] {Threei}  who blinks first, lol
[13:48] {RonS} bks blood
[13:50] {thomcbell} sorry guys - i stopped updating on the invn - but that was a great one - hope someone did it
[13:50] {thomcbell} i am out of it now
[14:04] {Threei}  back
[14:04] {dino} `nice one tbell, unfortunately i cut it flat
[14:08] {dino} back in 45
[14:09] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .15 break
[14:09] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[14:10] {Threei}  aggressive entry for .20 break
[14:13] {Threei}  offer half at .23 - .24
[14:14] {Threei}  1/4 at .28 - .29
[14:14] {Threei}  and let's try for .35 - .40 on the last piece
[14:14] {Threei}  stop to .13
[14:21] {Threei}  scalpers win
[14:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .30 break
[14:39] {Threei}  SPY loses 131.50, all hell breaks loose
[14:39] {Threei}  (again)
[14:40] {Threei}  (what remained of unbroken loose hell)
[14:40] {Threei}  stop under .20
[14:50] {Threei}  come on SPY
[15:01] {Threei}  nope
[15:04] {RonS} gotta be an old one...[12:52:38 PM] RayFromMA (ES,Crude,Euro,Gold): What do you call a Chinese man with a video camera? Phil Ming
[15:04] {RonS} nuts
[15:04] {Threei}  hmmm... color me stupid
[15:05] {dino} lol
[15:05] {RonS} BN reporting $FB goes out at $38 a share. That's 26x sales, 107x P/E
[15:07] {Beau} how do you spell rinse?
[15:07] {Threei}  "hate it"
[15:08] {Threei}  argh
[15:10] {Threei}  sudden move with no news
[15:10] {Threei}  just one of those cases
[15:11] {Threei}  sin to complain today, but still, it's offensive
[15:19] {dino} since may 1st, markets neg. 10 of 12 tading days, dji-6%, ndx -8.5%, s/p -7.5%
[15:20] {dino} it will be 11/13 if close neg today, which is likely
[15:26] {Threei} Short Setup: FACX  .40 break
[15:26] {Threei}  FCX
[15:26] {Threei}  If holds  50
[15:33] {Threei}  half out .32
[15:34] {Threei}  not exactly 1:1 yet but market becomes whippy, want to secure profit
[15:36] {Threei}  Saverin says he is going to pay taxes
[15:36] {Threei}  good for him
[15:37] {Threei}  1.4 more out
[15:37] {Threei}  1/4
[15:39] {Threei}  beau... does this one takes the sting out?
[15:40] {dino} markets getting crushed (again)
[15:40] {Threei}  too many pundits try to call a bottom
[15:41] {dino} just lost another half percent
[15:44] {Threei}  out in full
[15:44] {Threei}  .13
[15:44] {Threei}  +.26, nice weay to finish very nice day
[15:48] {Threei}  oh the irony
[15:49] {Threei}  guy who spoke to me a few months ago saying he wanted Taoist Trader and 11 Trades but complained about high cost, just emailed asking advice,
[15:49] {dino} revenge is dish best served cold
[15:49] {Threei}  he is down 15K attempting to buy the bottom of this slide and hold it
[15:49] {Threei}  was that cost really THAT high to learn NOT to do that??
[15:49] {dino} my advice to him, drink heavily
[15:50] {Threei}  I don't know how people compute these things
[15:50] {Threei}  250 course pays for itself in one good trade, or one avoided loss
[15:51] {Threei}  yet they take those losses with less hesitation than paying for education
[15:51] {Threei}  also dino... that advice of yours is universal, why tie it to this particular situation (signed: nemo)
[15:52] {Threei}  want to make a mental note about continued GDX strength
[15:53] {dino} lol
[15:54] {dino} gold silver both strong
[15:55] {Threei}  but copper iss till miserable
[15:55] {Threei}  so is steel
[15:55] {Threei}  which tells us a lot
[15:56] {Threei}  economic slowdown, while PMs are seen as hedge
[15:56] {dino} cooper not too bad, jjc -.06
[15:56] {Threei}  yeah but still, new low
[15:56] {dino} ok
[15:57] {Threei}  FCX daily chart is right from nightmare
[15:57] {Threei}  so is X's
[15:57] {dino} heres what my idiotic brain is reading. deflation from greek default, then the eu opens the printing presses to keep others from defaulting (inflation)
[15:58] {dino} and the usa fed steps in w/a qe3
[15:58] {Threei}  I really hope this is not what happens but afraid it is
[15:58] {dino} big problem for fed/obama is the fed has already backstopped tens of billions of eu debt a few months ago
[15:59] {Threei}  with those swap lines?
[15:59] {Threei}  around Dec-Jan
[15:59] {dino} yes, fed took eoros
[15:59] {Threei}  sigh
[15:59] {Threei}  oh well...
[15:59] {Threei}  thank you all, very nice day
[15:59] {dino} so fed must also inflate to offset euro loses
[15:59] {Threei}  especially considering the widespread misery
[15:59] {dino} race to the bottom
[16:00] {Threei}  have a great evening, see you tomorrow
[16:00] {dino} gn all