Monday, May 21, 2012

May 21 2012

Strange day - 7 winning trades, and yet negative ending. The thing is, ALL of them turned out to be scalps, so our attempts to partial and trail resulted in profiting on half lot only and stopping out around breakeven on the second half. Combined with a few stops, it turned enough to keep us in red. Oh well.

Session Time: Mon May 21 00:00:00 2012
[09:03] {ese} gm
[09:03] {Threei}  morning ese
[09:04] {ese} fabulous weekend except for today
[09:04] {Threei}  still fabulous
[09:05] {ese} true
[09:06] {ese} Zuckerberg is down 5 billion.........poor guy.....character slam......if you can dump on your friends will you dump on the market
[09:07] {Threei}  too bad we can't short this thing
[09:07] {ese} he cut a couple of his friends out of FB that helped him design it am I right?
[09:08] {Threei}  I never followed those twists and turns...
[09:08] {dptl} gm
[09:08] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:08] {ese} me neither........
[09:08] {ese} dp
[09:09] {Threei}  with incredible amount of shares coming out of lockup in a few months and company IPOing at quite mature stage of grows, it looks to me like great short opportunity
[09:09] {ese} theres still more shares to be released?     hmmmmmmm....think AONE's around a buck now
[09:10] {Threei}  personal holding, many million shares
[09:10] {nemo} I don't understand the revenue model
[09:10] {nemo} is there one
[09:10] {Threei}  some re in lockup for 3 months, some 6, depending on conditions
[09:10] {ese} thats!!!!! a good question
[09:10] {Threei}  ads
[09:11] {nemo} yeah, and there click through rates are extremely low
[09:11] {Threei}  doesn't surprise me at all
[09:12] {ese} I don't have a facebook page.........and I don't want one
[09:12] {Threei}  in all time I use it, I clicked on one or two, and when they offered me $50 credit to test it, I saw zero effect
[09:12] {RonS} gm...zuck w/ all that dough and he marries that?  dated a SF Miss Chinatown in babe and ballerina to boot...but mrs zuck...ooof
[09:12] {Threei}  ron :)
[09:12] {ese} lol
[09:12] {ese} morning ron
[09:12] {nemo} maybe she.....never mind
[09:13] {ese} rotflol
[09:13] {nemo} paying for it is always cheaper then marrying it
[09:13] {ese} hmmmmmmmmmm
[09:13] {Beau} good morning all
[09:14] {RonS} bunny has you brainwashed...
[09:14] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:14] {nemo} hardly...she's only been around for 2 years
[09:14] {RonS} lol...oh ok
[09:15] {nemo} Call no man unhappy until he is married. ~ Socrates
[09:15] {nemo} By all means marry; if you get a good wife, you'll be happy. If you get a bad one, you'll become a philosopher. - Socrates
[09:15] {nemo} Marriage is exchanging the praises of many for the criticism of one
[09:15] {Threei}  and in the end she will bring you that bowl with poison
[09:15] {nemo} And you'll want to drink it
[09:16] {nemo} I guess you can call me jaundiced
[09:16] {RonS} why is divorce so expensive?...because it's worth it...
[09:16] {Threei}  lol
[09:16] {Threei}  so, why gold and silver are down
[09:17] {Threei}  everything else is up
[09:17] {nemo} As a friend of mine said who had been through it more than once:  I should just find a woman who hates my guts every five years or so, and buy her a house
[09:17] {thomcbell} hehe'
[09:18] {Threei}  lol:
[09:18] {Threei}  What do you mean it's not worth $100 billion? It has Like buttons?"
[09:18] {ese} lol
[09:19] {Threei}  hmmm
[09:19] {Threei}  "Facebook crashes through IPO price as underwriters give up"
[09:20] {Threei}  question: who is doing all the selling?
[09:22] {Threei}  I mean, insiders can't sell yet, broad publick has no shares yet
[09:22] {Threei}  and shares are unavailable for shoert yet
[09:22] {ese} Zuckerberg....who else
[09:22] {Threei}  nope
[09:22] {Threei}  can't for the next three month
[09:22] {nemo} have options started trading yet?
[09:22] {Threei}  a bit earlier: *(US) APR CHICAGO FED NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX: +0.11 V -0.44 PRIOR
[09:23] {RonS} fb options...week from tomorrow i think...
[09:23] {Threei}  PIMCO's El Erian: Nothing significant was achieved by the G8 meetings; world remains in political and policy confusion
[09:23] {ese} have all the initial ipo shs hit the market yet
[09:23] {Threei}  - Sees a very bumpy road ahead for Europe.
[09:24] {Threei}  he is a diplomat
[09:24] {Threei}  I see a chasm
[09:24] {RonS} El Erian..."and oh, by the way, the sky is blue..."
[09:24] {Threei}  hehe
[09:25] {RonS} was wondering why this is moving...ETN Acquires $CBE For Huge Premium
[09:29] {RonS} lol...Is Facebook a good buy? The short answer is no. The longer answer is nooooooooo.
[09:29] {Threei}  gap up feels lukewarm to me
[09:29] {Threei}  looking for short entries but will skip first minutes
[09:30] {Threei}  gdx
[09:31] {Threei}  this one is rather long on pullback
[09:31] {Threei}  desirably .60 - .65
[09:32] {Threei}  too fast to alert
[09:32] {Threei}  bottomed at .63
[09:32] {dino} gm
[09:32] {Threei}  anyone got lucky to catch it?
[09:32] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:33] {gen} gm
[09:33] {Threei}  gen :)
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  32 break hl
[09:34] {dino} fb, i know a lot of people that bought. average guys/gals. they are very disappointed and most likely selling
[09:35] {Threei}  stop .93
[09:35] {Threei}  no go
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .20 break
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:38] {Threei}  not yet
[09:38] {Threei}  crap, GDX just won't stop ever sunce diving into that buy zone
[09:39] {thomcbell} FB terrible action
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .20 break hl
[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .10  target 1:2
[09:43] {Threei}  1:1
[09:44] {Threei}  stop .18
[09:46] {Threei}  cat
[09:47] {ese} fb dn $5.13......and he's dragging the rest of the market with him
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  25 break
[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[09:50] {nemo} grindy day so far
[09:50] {Threei}  Invalidated
[09:51] {thomcbell} lvs on short watch here
[09:51] {dino} 07 red
[09:51] {thomcbell} im in 45.94 half lot
[09:52] {thomcbell} couldnt type setup quick enuf
[09:52] {Threei}  SLW is reestablished
[09:52] {thomcbell} using 46.10 stop
[09:54] {Threei}  cover half
[09:54] {Threei}  stop to .02
[09:55] {thomcbell} gdx pintraday pattern fairly constructive here
[09:55] {thomcbell} i guess everyone will be reminded again about gold names are stocks too
[09:55] {Threei}  scalpers win again
[09:56] {Threei}  LOL... "So other than stock price, how was your honeymoon?"
[09:57] {RonS} ha
[09:57] {Threei}  friking TZA
[09:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
[09:59] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[10:00] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:00] {dino} becn sm l .01
[10:00] {thomcbell} flat lvs -
[10:02] {dino} hlf spikey
[10:03] {dino} sm l .25
[10:04] {Threei}  what the deuce
[10:04] {dino} out hlf .55, +.30
[10:05] {Threei}  HLF Receives Approval for Additional Direct-Selling Licenses in China
[10:05] {Threei}  US Supreme court orders review of internet based business methods
[10:05] {Threei}  huh?
[10:09] {Threei}  spactic action
[10:09] {nemo} spy is long here
[10:09] {dino} dhi l .77
[10:12] {dino} out dhi .89, +.12
[10:13] {RonS} gj
[10:14] {Threei} Long Setup:  GLD  .70 break hl
[10:14] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[10:15] {dino} ty
[10:15] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:18] {Threei}  half out
[10:18] {Threei}  stop to .69
[10:20] {dino} out becn .36, +.35
[10:20] {Threei}  out
[10:20] {Threei}  third win for scalpers
[10:23] {dino} gotta hop, back in hour
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .80 break
[10:23] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:23] {Threei}  hurry up dino, if you blink FB might hit low 10s
[10:24] {Threei}  and we probably will want to scalp it there
[10:26] {Threei}  grr
[10:27] {Threei}  what's with these spikes out of nowhere
[10:28] {nemo} grind up day
[10:29] {Threei}  that would be fine... but it forms a reversal setup, then kills it by a spike
[10:29] {Threei}  look at TZA long setup
[10:29] {Threei}  it's a textbook
[10:29] {Threei}  same with FAZ earlier
[10:29] {nemo} spy just reached long term level, .09 next level
[10:35] {nemo} a short for scalp worth it here
[10:35] {nemo} spxu or tza
[10:35] {Threei}  very much so, but this is going to be 4th time it shapes up
[10:36] {Threei}  which one is a charm?
[10:36] {nemo} well, IWM at weekly pivot. .62 is WPP on spy
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SPXU  .10 break hl
[10:37] {Threei}  If holds  55  of course
[10:38] {Threei}  target 1 to frikin 3
[10:38] {Threei}  1:1
[10:39] {Threei}  stop to .05
[10:41] {Threei}  come on SPY, do the double top
[10:42] {Threei}  yeah right
[10:42] {nemo} my bet is spy goes eventual to .62 area
[10:42] {Threei}  another one for scalpers
[10:48] {Threei}  if paterns holdas, TNA should spike hard here
[10:48] {Threei}  lol... did even while I typed
[10:49] {ese} what is ZNGA?
[10:49] {RonS} on line games...farmville where people pay for animals, ect
[10:50] {RonS} etc...
[10:50] {ese} tks
[10:51] {Threei}  GDX starts lagging
[10:52] {Threei}  looking for short entry
[10:53] {RonS}
[10:54] {Threei}  come on GDX, bounce
[10:54] {Threei}  what kind of move is that, not giving any chance for entry
[11:03] {Threei} Short Setup: GDX  .40 break
[11:03] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[11:06] {Threei}  bug day
[11:07] {ese} bug day?
[11:07] {Threei}  some days you are windshield, some days you are a bug
[11:11] {Threei}  TZA/FAZ finally work
[11:11] {Threei}  same setups as those that didn't before
[11:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[11:23] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:24] {Threei}  change to .45 break
[11:24] {Threei}  stop .34
[11:25] {Threei}  target .80
[11:28] {Threei}  1:1
[11:28] {Threei}  don't you dare turn into scalp
[11:36] {nemo} I'm not thrilled with the levels but IWM above .50 would technically be a long here
[11:36] {nemo} stop is .34
[11:37] {Threei}  sigh
[11:37] {nemo} 1/2 out .68
[11:37] {Threei}  5th scalp
[11:38] {nemo} taking more at .79 if it gets there
[11:46] {dino} gj
[11:51] {nemo} spy or iwm break here is long
[11:55] {nemo} I'm out here, it's starting to look short again
[11:58] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .25 break
[11:58] {Threei}  hl
[11:58] {Threei}  If holds  .35
[12:01] {Threei}  sigh
[12:02] {nemo} sob, I should probably have stayed in
[12:03] {nemo} although .65 area IWM and .20 area spy are possible breaks
[12:08] {Threei}  NYSE volume 270M shares, about 6% below its three-month average;
[12:08] {Threei}  - NASDAQ volume 815M shares, about 11% above its three-month average;
[12:08] {Threei}  on NASDAQ it's probably FB effect
[12:08] {Threei}  so overall volume on up day is down vs selloff days
[12:11] {Threei}  (EU) German Fin Min Schaeuble: EU integration and strong Europe are in mutual interest; Reiterates France and Germany agree Greece should stay in Eurozone - joint press conf- Today's talks were good and Europe can't advance without French German unity. - Reiterates everything will be on table at May 23rd summit. - Does not question ECB's inflation stance.
[12:11] {Threei}  French Fin Min Moscovici: France and Germany have a special responsibility for EU. Need to hold to responsible budgets, but also must consider all options for boosting growth. - France is committed to cutting deficit below 3% of GDP in 2013 and reaching balanced budget in 2017. - Greece must keep its commitments, but Europe must show Greece that its ready to help boost growth. - Did discuss the idea of Eurobonds but both stuck with prior positions - Decision on who will head Eurogroup will be part of a package of personnel decisions
[12:12] {Threei}  what an incredible mess
[12:15] {nemo} LVS
[12:15] {nemo} shit, missed it
[12:21] {ese} L RVBD .40
[12:21] {nemo} wow, that was an expensive stop on TNA
[12:36] {Threei}  JPM CFTC Chief Gensler confirms investigation into the company over its trading loss (as previously reported)
[12:38] {dino}  you know $3 billion on a $200billion book, isn't that big imo
[12:38] {Threei}  their balance sheet is 1T
[12:39] {Threei}  from all information available, they lost their own money - not vlients, not taxpayers
[12:39] {dino} well, even more to my point
[12:39] {Threei}  good for them, let them lose and let them market price reflect them
[12:40] {Threei}  why congress is going to do hearing and SEC and CFTC - investogate, is beyond me
[12:40] {dino} exactly
[12:40] {Threei}  they made 11B in 2011
[12:40] {Threei}  I haven';t heard applause
[12:41] {ese} out rvbd .49 +.09
[12:41] {Threei}  just the opposite in fact - crowds we as disgusted with their pfots as they are now with loss
[12:44] {dino} out rvbd +.08, ty ese
[12:46] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .50 break
[12:46] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[12:49] {Beau} hearings because it is election time.  Congress protecting us common folk and by the way vote for me.
[12:50] {Threei}  yes... oh, and I fully expect hearing into FB overpriced IPO
[12:51] {Beau} yep
[12:52] {Threei}  full consumer protection mode, you know
[12:52] {Threei}  from himself too
[12:53] {Beau} i am ready for a benevolent dictatorship with nemo or me as dictator
[12:57] {Threei}  I'll handle machine gun
[12:58] {Threei}  any worthy benevolent dictatorship has to have a lot of those
[13:00] {Threei}  as you well realize, you hesitated to say scalp ot half... for understandble reasons, lol
[13:01] {Threei}  so whatever you did is good
[13:01] {nemo} hehehehe...I define benevelence as helping people's souls transition to the next incarnation...
[13:01] {Threei}  lol
[13:02] {nemo} benevolence
[13:03] {Beau} traders have souls?
[13:03] {nemo} I didn't say that
[13:04] {Threei}  before first short
[13:05] {Threei}  as soon as you shorted your fitrst stock, it's good night
[13:05] {nemo} ahhhh...Vad, what the hell are you talking about?
[13:05] {Threei}  soul?
[13:06] {nemo} btw...Jack Daniel's  Tennessee Honey, excellent stuff
[13:07] {nemo} yep...definitely after noon
[13:08] {nemo} long .46 lvs
[13:09] {nemo} stop under .35
[13:09] {Threei}  isn't it amazing - 6 winning trades, and I am negative
[13:09] {Threei}  clear mismanagement
[13:09] {nemo} must be that ex-soviet in u
[13:13] {nemo} oh well, probably a short, hit resistance at the 40 period average
[13:17] {Threei}  (US) San Francisco Fed issues research on Quantitative Easing; impacted yields more than targeted debt- QE program lowered 10 year yield by 1%
[13:17] {Threei}  well?
[13:17] {Threei}  logic says let's do QE3, right?
[13:21] {nemo} rinse
[13:25] {ese} sorry dino didn't see your thanks ........
[13:25] {Threei}  too late ese
[13:25] {Threei}  dino put you in the "never thank again" list
[13:26] {ese} lol
[13:29] {ese} L car .29
[13:33] {ese} L some more avg .30
[13:35] {ese} stop to .28
[13:37] {ese} out 1/2 .34 3k
[13:37] {ese} stop to break even balance .30
[13:39] {ese} 1/2 of the 1/2 .37 +.07
[13:41] {ese} out in full .39 1.5k +.09
[13:42] {ese} good enough
[13:43] {ese} dats whacher Vadim Grapher edgeeacation will dofer ya
[13:43] {Threei}  rofl
[13:43] {nemo} must be a musician
[13:44] {dino} gj ese
[13:44] {nemo} bet he's a teacher too
[13:44] {Threei}  I feel really proud of your spelling ese
[13:44] {ese} ha di geeya ges
[13:45] {ese} lol
[13:48] {nemo} next rip coming
[13:48] {nemo} .63 is WPP, next level is 132.35 or so
[14:02] {Threei}  let's see if this is finally a reversal
[14:02] {Threei}  if SPY bounces into .45 - .50 zone, FAZ/TZA should be entry
[14:09] {dino} whr sm s .99
[14:12] {ese} rvbd took off nicely
[14:20] {dino} whr stop -.19
[14:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .05 break
[14:30] {Threei}  If holds  .95
[14:47] {Threei}  looks better and better to me
[14:47] {Threei}  this could be our chance to fix the day
[14:48] {Threei}  has 40 cents potential
[14:50] {Threei}  in case you need a proof that insanity is not limited to any side of the pond:
[14:50] {ese} nope
[14:50] {Threei}  (ES) Spain Govt said to be encouraging large ECB involvement in a new strategy for the EU to help increase growth measures - financial press- NOTE May 20th: (EU) Spain PM Rajoy has asked German Chancellor Merkel for ECB liquidity injection into Spanish banks - Spanish press
[14:51] {Threei}  invalidated but on radar
[14:51] {nemo} I'm expecting spy and iwm to breakout
[14:52] {Threei}  well, if the next line is "Merkel agreed to inject 500B in Spain" I fully expect rally to new all time highs
[14:53] {Threei}  seriously, ar these folks totally insane?
[14:54] {Threei}  (EU) Institute of International Finance (IIF): Deterioration in the EMU requires a policy response; options include lowering interest rates further, creating new ECB loans or intervening on bonds
[14:54] {nemo} long .71 upro
[14:54] {Threei}  nice options
[14:54] {nemo} stop .55
[14:54] {Threei}  - Sees possible Spain Banking loan losses reaching approx �218-260B; expecting some banks to require Govt assistance
[14:56] {nemo} 1/3 at .90
[14:56] {Threei}  nice
[14:56] {nemo} look at spy on 15 minute
[14:59] {ese} thats a nice chart
[14:59] {nemo} yeah, and .63 is the weekly pivot
[14:59] {ese} L fas .22
[15:00] {ese} out fas .41
[15:00] {ese} +.19
[15:01] {ese} 1/2
[15:02] {nemo} spy could go to 132.40 area
[15:02] {nemo} stop is .69
[15:02] {nemo} hehehe
[15:16] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAS  .50 break
[15:16] {Threei}  if stays above .35
[15:20] {Threei}  valid
[15:26] {Threei}  half out
[15:26] {Threei}  stop .45
[15:28] {Threei}  lol
[15:28] {Threei}  that's 7th today
[15:33] {Threei}  volume is about half of Friday's
[15:34] {Threei}  to me, this is a damning indication of how significant this strength is
[15:44] {Threei}  why, why can't we short FB
[15:47] {nemo} Friday was op ex
[15:50] {dino} y
[15:50] {nemo} that might have been much of the volume on top of the FB launcy
[15:50] {nemo} launch
[15:51] {Threei}  SPY volume is singificantly lower than Thursday's too
[15:51] {Threei}  and Wed
[15:51] {Threei}  so, while both FB and op ex have their influence, it's still the story of lower volume on up day
[15:52] {dino} well thats been the story since october
[15:57] {nemo} yahoo...I actually held the rest out at 132.   69.35
[15:57] {Threei}  nice
[15:58] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all, let's get them tomorrow
[15:58] {Threei}  have a good evening
[15:58] {dptl} gn