Tuesday, May 22, 2012

May 22 2012

Very nice day with a lot of trades working so smoothly, it was almost a "fish in a barrel" day. Certainly back on a windshield side. Follow the trades for the intellectual joy of seeing patterns rule. One made Catch of the Day, classic pullback entry.

Session Time: Tue May 22 00:00:00 2012
[08:46] {nemo} http://goo.gl/b5j90
[08:54] {Threei}  weird combination of astute observations and umm, not
[08:54] {Threei}  although it's normal for this author
[09:06] {nemo} http://blog.themistrading.com/how-risky-are-stock-exchanges/
[09:06] {Threei}  I don't need to read it, I know the gist by looking at the author
[09:06] {Threei}  themis who made it his life purpose to chase HFT
[09:08] {nemo} basically hft is moving faster than the exchanges can adapt and exchanges are taking the financial hit on "errors"
[09:08] {dino} gm
[09:09] {Threei}  so maybe they need to switch roles?
[09:09] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:14] {Threei}  FB continues its downward spiral
[09:15] {Threei}  and I suspect it goes much much lower
[09:15] {Threei}  what's with SLW and GLD being in red while market's green
[09:16] {Beau} GOOD MORNING ALL
[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {Threei}  and FCX slightly in red
[09:16] {Beau} sorry about caps
[09:17] {dino} $ up 3i, maybe thats it
[09:17] {Threei}  ah... haven't looked at it
[09:18] {Threei}  ty
[09:18] {ese} morning
[09:18] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:18] {Threei}  some changes happen in relations
[09:18] {Threei}  it used to be a given that if $ was up, SPY would be down
[09:19] {ese} ades
[09:19] {ese} sorry bout that...not a reccomendation....was typing that in the trade the news website
[09:22] {Threei}  lol:
[09:22] {Threei}  Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies
[09:24] {RonS} ...then saying you did the right thing and improved the situation and move on to the next, ad nauseum
[09:24] {Threei}  yup
[09:25] {Threei}  so if this is what the best of known systems, democracy, inevitably comes to... are we screwed by default?
[09:25] {ese} the two of you got me confusiated
[09:25] {RonS} ritholtz post on the fb ipo is very compelling...
[09:25] {Threei}  that's what us does ese :)
[09:26] {RonS} http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
[09:26] {Threei}  [08:54] {Threei} weird combination of astute observations and umm, not
[09:26] {Threei}  :)
[09:27] {Threei}  while he is talking about FB and MS pre-IPO dealings, it's right on
[09:28] {RonS} ...was really talking about the exisiting secondary market pre-ipo, etc
[09:28] {Threei}  yes, I loved that part
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .75 break
[09:31] {ese} L car .64
[09:31] {Threei}  stop under .70
[09:32] {Threei}  out, not ready yet
[09:33] {ese} out car.82 +.18
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .55 break
[09:34] {nemo} wow aapl
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[09:35] {dino} wdc
[09:36] {nemo} gdx around here I've got support around .30
[09:36] {nemo} big offer stepping down
[09:36] {dino} wdc sm l .75
[09:36] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .40 break
[09:37] {Threei}  LVS on watch for bounce too
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  .10 break
[09:37] {Threei}  half out GDX
[09:37] {Threei}  missed LVS
[09:38] {nemo} yeah, it was at .20 when I got it on screen
[09:38] {Threei}  GDX stop .39
[09:38] {Threei}  1/4 out .57
[09:38] {dino} wdc stop -.26
[09:39] {Threei}  LVS again
[09:39] {Threei}  same setup
[09:39] {Threei}  .10 break
[09:39] {Threei}  invalidated
[09:40] {dino} wdc rinsed and re-loaded .75
[09:40] {Threei}  too jumpy for a timely call
[09:41] {Threei}  FCX
[09:41] {Threei}  .40 break
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .40 break
[09:41] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[09:41] {Threei}  GDX stop to .44
[09:42] {dino} out wdc .05, +.30
[09:43] {Threei}  wtg
[09:43] {Threei}  no go FCX
[09:44] {thomcbell} volume in fb ridiculous
[09:44] {dino} dhi l .51
[09:45] {ese} and dn another 2 bills to boot
[09:45] {Threei}  out GDX in full
[09:46] {RonS} took gdx .42 to .68  thanks 3i
[09:46] {Threei}  :)
[09:47] {dino} cree sm l .50
[09:48] {Threei}  URBN
[09:48] {Threei}  very pulpy
[09:48] {ese} L car .77 L dhi .55
[09:50] {ese} would've liked .51 dino.....am bit late with your call
[09:50] {Threei}  a lot of numbers are coming at 10
[09:50] {ese} ces't la vie!
[09:51] {nemo} existing homes is all I have
[09:52] {dino} out cree flat
[09:52] {Threei}  EU consumer confidence
[09:52] {Threei}  all pf a sudden it mmatters for our markets
[09:52] {dino} cree sm l .35
[09:53] {Threei}  and thnere are some dramatic expectations:
[09:53] {Threei}  Consensus expectations: -20.5e v -19.9 prior
[09:53] {ese} whats the news on dhi dino
[09:54] {RonS} housing stocks just been strong ese...
[09:54] {ese} tks
[09:59] {Threei}  yikes
[09:59] {Threei}  *(US) APR EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.62M V 4.61ME
[10:00] {dino} out dhi .64, +.13
[10:00] {dino} no news ese
[10:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  43 break
[10:00] {ese} nice
[10:00] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
[10:04] {nemo} grind up continues
[10:05] {ese} out dhi .70 +.15
[10:06] {dino} gj
[10:06] {dino} out cree .75, +.40
[10:08] {ese} tks
[10:08] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .10 break
[10:09] {Threei}  If holds  UNDER  .20
[10:09] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:09] {Threei}  1:1
[10:10] {Threei}  stop .12
[10:11] {dino} becn sm l ave .75
[10:11] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .50 break
[10:12] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:13] {Threei}  target .75
[10:13] {Threei}  half out .62
[10:13] {Threei}  stop .48
[10:14] {dino} whr sm l .51
[10:15] {Threei}  1/4 more out .70
[10:15] {Threei}  offering last piece .78
[10:15] {Threei}  stop .55
[10:16] {Threei}  can't believe second trade today works for more than scalp, lol
[10:17] {nemo} longs should go a ways  iwm likely over  77, next target on spy above .90 level 133.40
[10:18] {Threei}  sure, that's the trend of the moment, but remember yesterday when both directions were routinely rinsed
[10:18] {Threei}  out
[10:18] {Threei}  +.26
[10:20] {nemo} iwm hit weekly r1
[10:25] {Threei}  visual: http://goo.gl/FbUkw
[10:25] {ese} out car .87 +.10
[10:26] {ese} gotta go all......am back to teaching
[10:27] {ese} cya tomorrow
[10:27] {dino} out whr .70, +.20
[10:27] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .40 break
[10:28] {Threei}  If holds  .50
[10:32] {Threei}  against the grain
[10:51] {dino} .
[10:52] {nemo} spy and iwm coming into trend line
[10:59] {dino} dks sm l .75
[11:05] {nemo} iwm looking long above .90 her if it holds the trend line
[11:05] {nemo} spy at trend too
[11:17] {Threei}  watching TZA for entry under .40
[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[11:20] {Threei}  If holds  .30
[11:26] {Threei}  ok... this has to be a topping pattern in SPY
[11:38] {Threei}  half out
[11:38] {Threei}  scalpers know what to do
[11:40] {nemo} iwm topped out at weekly S1 to the penny
[11:40] {nemo} but we're just coming into the major trendline for iwm and spy is a ways below
[11:44] {Threei}  1:2 baby
[11:45] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[11:47] {Threei}  stop to .49
[11:48] {nemo} spy showing signs of a long, but .70 is vwap and r1 on daily
[11:52] {nemo} gs might be worth a long here
[11:58] {Threei}  (EU) Fitch comments on EMU LTRO program; potential for third round is increasing- Fitch: The likelihood that a third longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) will be needed by certain banks in 'peripheral' eurozone countries is increasing due to worries over eurozone sovereigns, limited deleveraging ability and flat-to-negative deposit trends among other factors - The timing of any further LTRO is uncertain, but is unlikely to be imminent without a further significant shock, such as a Greek exit from the eurozone. If a third LTRO is needed, we believe it will be provided. - We think French banks are the least likely among the biggest users of the first two LTROs to need another round of funding from the ECB. The French banks have been able to strengthen customer deposits, in part by attracting money that had been deposited in money market funds
[11:58] {Threei}  yes... first two rounds got us nowhere, let's do a third one
[11:59] {Threei}  FMCN... missed the fun
[11:59] {Threei}  dino, that was your kind of fiun
[11:59] {thomcbell} lvs looking for some kind of short entry
[12:00] {thomcbell} reverse c and h Vad?
[12:00] {thomcbell} on 1 min?
[12:00] {Threei}  not sure...
[12:02] {dino} out dks -.19
[12:03] {dino} fosl sm s .30
[12:06] {dino} cov fosl ave .00, +.30
[12:07] {dino} out becn .84, +.09
[12:09] {nemo} important fib level here iwm
[12:09] {nemo} and spy here
[12:09] {dino} you're fibbin'
[12:10] {Threei}  nailed market reversal perfectly
[12:10] {Threei}  can I just have my last 1/4 TZA back?
[12:11] {nemo} it amazes me how that iwm fib level still works after two years
[12:21] {dino} dks sm l .44 ave
[12:37] {dino} lol, put feet on desk and kicked keyboard to the floor
[12:40] {Threei}  rofl
[12:40] {Threei}  self-gremlined
[12:56] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  .50 break hl
[12:56] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[13:02] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Oettinger: Merkel shouldnt reject idea of Eurobonds outright as their adoption is only a question of timing
[13:02] {Threei}  I must be insane...
[13:02] {Threei}  seems I am the only one who thinks this idea is insane
[13:02] {Threei}  well, aside of merkel
[13:08] {Threei}  GLD... grrr
[13:08] {Threei}  did it have to invalidate?
[13:10] {Threei}  funny how they all press Merkel into eurobonds knowing well that they may work only if Germany backstops them
[13:10] {Threei}  and she resists knowing that she would havbe to be the pne paying for them
[13:10] {Threei}  well, not she personally of course, lol
[13:23] {Threei}  what's going on with gold??
[13:30] {dino} dk
[13:30] {dino} maybe greek default = deflationary = lower gold
[13:30] {Threei}  no doubt
[13:30] {Threei}  but it's not like they default today
[13:31] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .60 break
[13:40] {Threei} Short Setup: GLD  153 break hl
[13:40] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[13:50] {Threei}  no need to say both are invalidated
[14:08] {dino} out dks .75, +.31
[14:27] {Threei}  ALW again
[14:27] {Threei}  SLW
[14:27] {Threei}  valud break
[14:28] {Threei}  and GLD did it again.., invaliated, then worked
[14:28] {Threei}  will adjust to this behavior tomorrow
[14:32] {Threei}  half out or scalp
[14:33] {Threei}  your desicion
[14:33] {Threei}  half for me
[14:36] {Threei}  deSiCion??
[14:36] {Threei}  sheesh
[14:46] {thomcbell} spy feeling vulnverable
[14:47] {Threei}  very much so
[14:47] {thomcbell} 132.38 break
[14:47] {Threei}  shorts are working again today
[15:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .75 break
[15:04] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[15:09] {Threei}  half out
[15:14] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[15:14] {Threei}  fish in a barrel day
[15:15] {thomcbell} have to run guys - see u all tomorrow
[15:16] {Threei}  take care tbell
[15:16] {dino} l8r tbell
[15:18] {Threei}  out in full
[15:18] {nemo} didn't know you could short sell the 2nd day of an ipo:  http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120522-710610.html
[15:19] {Threei}  who lended the shares is the question
[15:19] {Threei}  underwriters can't lend them for 30 days
[15:20] {Threei}  private investors and funds can but I've never heard of this happening on 2nd day
[15:20] {dino} dks sm s .70
[15:25] {dino} cov dks .55, +.15
[15:26] {nemo} boy, did the sheep get fleeced in FB
[15:26] {Threei}  and it's far from over
[15:27] {nemo} should be a run on vaseline
[15:28] {nemo} we're near support in spy and iwm and getting significant volume
[15:29] {dino} s/p open gap filled
[15:29] {dino} arba offer 45
[15:30] {nemo} what's up with that, acquisition offer
[15:30] {nemo} ?
[15:30] {RonS} sap
[15:30] {nemo} frickin' krauts
[15:31] {dino} cov dks too soon
[15:31] {nemo} wow 3.5 million shares 1 minute in spy
[15:32] {nemo} iwm pivot and wpp at 75.75
[15:32] {Threei}  (GR) Former Greece PM Papademos (PASOK): There is a real risk that Greece could exit the Euro; estimates of �500B-1.0T in costs underscore the seriousness of such an action- Sees economic impact to Greece from a Euro exit as 'catastrophic'; going back to Drachma would trigger an inflationary spiral - Notes there is not much room to renegotiate the bailout mechanisms.
[15:32] {nemo} spy bounced at 38.2 retrace of up move
[15:37] {nemo} might get bounce .65 spy
[15:46] {Threei}  satisfied with both our trading and the way market acted today
[15:53] {Threei}  Ok guys, thank you
[15:53] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow