Monday, June 11, 2012

June 11 2012

We figured correctly that selling was going to be a major theme of the day. Market however dropped right frpm the open, with not as much as even attempting to rally first, so we got no good setups for shorting in the morning. Situation got more favorable later in the day so a few good ones came about on both long and short sides. Finished slightly up but not nearly as much as this kind of red days usually bring us.

Session Time: Mon Jun 11 00:00:00 2012
[09:02] {scottie} gm
[09:04] {Threei}  morning scottie
[09:19] {Threei}  hmmm... sleep-in is in vogue this week?
[09:20] {Threei}  I need to move my alarm 30 min later
[09:21] {scottie} You wake up pretty soon, I think
[09:24] {dino} gm
[09:24] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:25] {ese} gm
[09:25] {Beau} good morning all
[09:25] {dptl} gm
[09:25] {ese} B vad dino
[09:25] {ese} dp
[09:25] {Threei}  ese, beau, dp :)
[09:26] {Threei}  my working assumption: after morning dust settles, selling should become theme of the day
[09:27] {Threei}  market is off quite a bit from the overnight highs, and doubts about this next bailout are already front and ceter
[09:27] {Threei}  and I already got what I expect to be the best joke of the day:
[09:27] {Threei}  (ES) Spain to remain EFSF guarantor post-bailout - financial press
[09:27] {Threei}  Country that asked for 100B from EFSF and by many estimates needs 350-450B, remains that same EFSF guarantor?
[09:28] {Threei}  Seinfield's nervously smoking in the corner, that's some fierce competition on the stand-up comedy department.
[09:30] {Threei}  let's wait out first bout of volatility
[09:31] {Threei}  meanwhile, notice that FAZ performs better than TZA so far
[09:31] {Threei}  preobably will be our way to play the downside
[09:33] {ese} really dislike these gap up days
[09:33] {Threei}  wow
[09:33] {Threei}  that's some selloff right out of the gate
[09:34] {ese} yup
[09:34] {Threei}  impressive fear, for no news
[09:35] {Threei}  let's see if we get markert bounce to short into
[09:35] {Threei}  FAZ between .10 and .20 would be an entry
[09:36] {Threei}  for now looks like bounce in cards
[09:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .95 break hl
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:37] {Threei}  valid but with .95 sdtop
[09:37] {Threei}  .85
[09:38] {Threei}  change trigger to .90
[09:38] {Threei}  not ready yet
[09:40] {nemo} good morning
[09:40] {Threei}  nemo :)
[09:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .23
[09:41] {Threei}  stop under .15 scalpers, .10 day traders
[09:42] {Threei}  target .55
[09:43] {Threei}  wow
[09:43] {Threei}  still no support
[09:44] {ese} spyders trapped  more than a few takers this morning thats for sure......
[09:45] {Threei}  my expectation were set for selling, but nor right out of the gate and this intense
[09:46] {ese} spain
[09:47] {Threei}  spain is so done...
[09:47] {thomcbell} holy christmas - wynn!
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  34 break hl
[09:48] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[09:51] {Threei}  looks good
[09:51] {Threei}  should be 1:2, 1:3
[09:54] {Threei}  holding .90 on every pullback so far
[09:54] {Threei}  if loses it, switch to .80 - .90 setup
[09:54] {ese} cool L cvh .87.......and it just pops right up there
[09:55] {ese} what can i say ...some people just know how to live right
[09:56] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .85 break
[09:56] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[09:57] {Threei}  SPY lost another support
[09:58] {Threei}  so did FCX
[09:58] {thomcbell} fcx around the pivot is interesting to me long 33.53
[09:59] {ese} stop out cvh .06 +.19
[09:59] {Threei}  as skeptical as I was about this gap, I didn't expect it to sell with not as much as 1 minute of upward move
[10:00] {thomcbell} agreed
[10:00] {ese} double agree
[10:01] {thomcbell} aapl has fight today
[10:01] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .40 break
[10:01] {Threei}  stop under .30
[10:01] {Threei}  target .90
[10:01] {Threei}  1:1
[10:02] {Threei}  1:2
[10:02] {Threei}  1:3
[10:02] {Threei}  stop for balance to .45
[10:03] {Threei}  OK
[10:03] {Threei}  not bad for the first worthy bounce
[10:04] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .85 break
[10:05] {Threei}  stop under .75
[10:05] {Threei}  clean double bottom
[10:05] {Threei}  target 1:3
[10:07] {Threei}  come on SPY, raise your head
[10:07] {Threei}  grrr
[10:07] {Threei}  no go
[10:10] {Threei}  this immediate selling left us with no short setups as there was no slightest consolidation anywhere, and no longs work yet
[10:10] {Threei}  well, one did
[10:10] {Threei}  no sign of bottom still
[10:10] {Threei}  133 is not likely to holg
[10:10] {Threei}  hold
[10:12] {Threei}  IWM tries for DB again
[10:12] {Threei}  not sure it's worth the risk
[10:13] {Threei}  maybe after one more pullback and proof that it can hold .60
[10:15] {Threei}  not getting setups...
[10:18] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  46 break
[10:18] {Threei}  If holds  .10
[10:18] {Threei}  target 1:2
[10:19] {Threei}  1:1
[10:20] {Threei}  stop to .01 for the balance
[10:21] {ese} L cvh .13
[10:22] {Threei}  changing my mind on target, 1:3
[10:22] {Threei}  1:2, 1/4 more out
[10:23] {ese} hmmmmmm
[10:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .70 break hl
[10:23] {Threei}  stop .91 last piece LVS
[10:23] {Threei}  bidding .71
[10:24] {Threei}  IWM, if holds .60 of course'
[10:24] {Threei}  out LVS in full
[10:25] {Threei}  finally decent one
[10:26] {Threei}  sheesh IWM
[10:27] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  ,55 hl
[10:27] {Threei}  Invalidated
[10:28] {ese} out cvh .27 +.14  gotta go catch ya tomorrow
[10:29] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:33] {Threei}  now CAT decided to break down
[10:34] {scottie} not for long
[10:34] {Threei}  yeah, leaving it alone, too hectic
[10:37] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .35 break
[10:38] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[10:39] {Threei}  (PT) Portugal Central Bank reiterates calls for a banking union in Europe; along with commonality of fiscal rules within the EMU
[10:39] {Threei}  isn't it funny
[10:39] {Threei}  weaker members insist on common banking
[10:39] {Threei}  stronger ones say, heck, for us to carry your burden?
[10:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU Official: Spanish funds may come from the EFSF rather than the ESM, via EFSF bonds, may later be taken over by the ESM
[10:43] {Threei}  sheesh
[10:44] {Threei}  I start seriously disliking this day
[10:44] {dino} yeah, feels like euro is ready to blow up
[10:45] {Threei}  yes, but normally I trade this turn of events very profitably
[10:45] {Threei}  and today leaves me with very few good setups
[10:45] {Threei}  even though my firat thought was:
[10:46] {Threei}  [09:26] {Threei} my working assumption: after morning dust settles, selling should become theme of the day
[10:47] {dino} call spike
[10:48] {dino} sm s .00
[10:51] {Threei}  markets are solidly in red now
[10:51] {Threei}  with no bounce in sight
[10:58] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .35 break
[10:58] {Threei}  If holds  .25
[11:02] {Threei}  1:1
[11:07] {Threei}  (ES) ECB's Coene: Spain bailout should prevent any further contagion.
[11:07] {Threei}  wanna bet?
[11:09] {dino} these guys are clueless
[11:09] {Threei}  they just say and do random things now
[11:09] {Threei}  panic mode
[11:10] {Threei}  things unravel before their very eyes and they can do squat about that
[11:17] {Threei}  nemo, what say you
[11:17] {Threei}  time for bounce?
[11:21] {thomcbell} coming right to pivot on spy here
[11:21] {Threei}  and TNA doesn;t make new low
[11:21] {Threei}  while SPY just did
[11:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .70 break
[11:21] {Threei}  aww
[11:21] {Threei}  too fast
[11:21] {Threei}  pullback
[11:21] {Threei}  in
[11:22] {Threei}  stop under day's low
[11:22] {Threei}  .58
[11:22] {Threei}  1:1
[11:22] {Threei}  half out
[11:22] {Threei}  stop to .65
[11:22] {Threei}  target 48.20
[11:23] {Threei}  1:2
[11:23] {Threei}  stop .69
[11:25] {Threei}  ok, out balance
[11:26] {Threei}  decent one anyway, don't want to guess about the next step
[11:30] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[11:30] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[11:30] {Threei}  IMO, bounce time is here
[11:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  LVS  46 break
[11:33] {Threei}  If holds  .90
[11:33] {Threei}  IWM target 1:3
[11:33] {Threei}  LVS 1:4
[11:34] {Threei}  1:1 IWM
[11:35] {Threei}  stop to .45
[11:36] {Threei}  LVS 1:1
[11:37] {Threei}  stop to .97
[11:39] {Threei}  1:2 IWM
[11:40] {Threei}  LVS 1:2
[11:40] {Threei}  day-fixing set of trades
[11:41] {Threei}  IWM stop is .49 now, LVS .05
[11:46] {Threei}  done with both
[11:47] {scottie} +.21 on lvs thanks Vad
[11:48] {scottie} on IWM sorry
[11:49] {Threei}  :)
[11:50] {scottie} liking more my day with the last couple of trades
[11:51] {Threei}  yeah
[11:52] {Threei}  this sudden drop at the open kind of took away our trades
[11:59] {Threei}  (GR) Greece PASOK party leader Venezelos: Told Italy PM that the least favorable terms of the bailout deal for Greece need to be revised- Monti "appreciated" the request, brought up a bank deposit guarantee framework. ***Note that on May 27th, Venizelos reiterated proposal to soften Greece bailout terms; Says one year extension already received support from EU's Juncker.
[12:00] {Threei}  so, pro-bailout parties in Greece found their song to win election: thet took a page from Syritsa book and demand renegotiating terms
[12:00] {Threei}  never mind that they accepted draconian terms in the first place
[12:19] {Threei}  breakdown or bounce?
[12:23] {Threei}  anyone?
[12:23] {nemo} 132.50 is spy pivot
[12:24] {scottie} I'll bet $100 on bounce
[12:24] {Threei}  lol, twitter:
[12:24] {Threei}  Let me make sure I have this straight, a $125 billion bailout only buys us a 3 hour rally into resistance and a Facebook uptick? Tuff crowd
[12:24] {Threei}  rofl
[12:24] {nemo} yeah, saw that
[12:30] {scottie} TNA db?
[12:33] {Threei}  trying to gauge just that
[12:33] {Threei}  feels like slightly more probable than new lows
[12:33] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[12:33] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[12:35] {scottie} in .50
[12:35] {Threei}  wow... did you move it singlehandedly? :)
[12:38] {Threei}  1 cent to 1:1... come on
[12:39] {Threei}  1:1
[12:40] {scottie} half out +.10
[12:40] {scottie} stop ?
[12:41] {Threei}  .48
[12:45] {Threei}  1:2
[12:45] {Threei}  me is much much happier
[12:46] {scottie} 1/4 out .70
[12:46] {dino} gj
[12:47] {Beau} me too thx vad
[12:51] {Threei}  :)
[12:54] {scottie} out in full ty Vad
[12:54] {Threei}  yw
[12:55] {Threei}  SPY feels to me like more recovery in cards for now
[12:55] {Threei}  and probably eod selloff
[12:55] {Threei}  looking for a vehicle to try and ride this recovery part
[13:04] {Threei}  who missed an e-mail,
[13:04] {Threei}
[13:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .50 break
[13:07] {Threei}  If holds  .40  scalpers, .35 day traders
[13:15] {Threei}  half out
[13:25] {scottie} sold half at +.10 and the rest flat
[13:26] {Threei}  yup
[13:29] {Threei}  getting management down pretty well, scottie, eh?
[13:30] {scottie} improving...
[13:41] {Threei}  (EU) EU's Rehn: Need to map out steps to reach an 'economic union' - comments at European Parliament in Strasbourg- Now is the time for an economic and monetary union "version 2.0" - Comments that some sovereignty must be transferred for fiscal integration
[13:42] {Threei}  version 2 - because version worked so well, right?
[13:42] {Threei}  version 1
[13:43] {Threei}  give uo sovereignity for intergation - this is stuff that starts wars, you imbeciles
[13:43] {Threei}  I swear they won't quit until they get one
[13:50] {scottie} FAS db ?
[13:53] {Threei}  I don't feel confident about bounce
[13:54] {Threei}  SPY break of 133 should have brought much more upside before fizzling out
[13:54] {Threei}  dropping back under it and even retreating to day's low is very bearish
[14:17] {Threei}  huh
[14:17] {Threei}  (ES) International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) comments on Spain bailout deal; is unlikely to trigger CDS- Reminder: Earlier today saw some dealer chatter wondering whether the use of the ESM facility (therefore subordinating certain debt) would trigger credit default swaps payouts
[14:17] {Threei}  remember Greece ISDA scenario?
[14:17] {Threei}  same thing, first they said it's not a credit event
[14:18] {Threei}  in a few days they made u-turn
[14:18] {Threei}  .80 break FAZ
[14:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[14:19] {Threei}  If holds  .70  scakpers, .65 day traders
[14:22] {Threei}  come on FAZ, no rinzing
[14:31] {Threei}  ugh
[14:31] {Threei}  no go
[14:38] {Threei}  Apple Inc Apple announces Passbook; combines various ticket apps in a virtual wallet; handling tickets and boarding passes; handles store cards as well like the Starbucks app - GPS enabled, allows movie tickets to be available when near theater etc; uses examples such as a Fandango ticket, or a ticket for a professional sports game
[14:39] {Threei}  I'll by Ipad when this app becomes reality:
[14:39] {Threei}
[14:42] {scottie} lol
[14:44] {Threei}  just a scalp:
[14:44] {Threei} Long Setup:  ABX  ,80 if stays above .75
[14:45] {Threei}  change to .75 break
[14:45] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[14:47] {Threei}  offer half .82
[14:59] {Threei}  out
[15:04] {scottie} wynn 100 ?
[15:05] {Threei}  I think so
[15:05] {Threei}  just keep size small
[15:05] {Threei}  pulp
[15:21] {scottie} wynn s 100.00 small
[15:21] {scottie} a bit aggreessive i think
[15:21] {scottie} stop .20
[15:21] {scottie} change to .15
[15:25] {Threei}  nice
[15:26] {scottie} out .85 + .15
[15:26] {scottie} too soon obviously
[15:49] {Threei}  no feeling whether we get another lef of panic selling
[15:49] {Threei}  some short covering is just as likely
[15:54] {Threei}  selling
[15:54] {Threei}  this market is so done
[15:55] {Threei}  if another round of bailouts can't keep it up anymore, what will
[15:56] {Threei}  smewhat happy about digging out of the hole, somewhat disappointed about not using nicely red day to its full potential
[15:57] {Threei}  OK... Tuesdays are usually better
[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all, have a good evening
[15:57] {Threei}  see you tomorrow
[15:57] {scottie} I had a nice day, ty Vad
[15:57] {Threei}  :)
[15:58] {dptl} gn