Thursday, June 14, 2012

June 14 2012

Another day with a lot of rinses. Good trades outweighed stops but not by much. Extremely jittery market.

Session Time: Thu Jun 14 00:00:00 2012
[08:26] {nemo} two setup spy (based on jobs report ;-))
[08:59] {Threei}  Spanish bonds yeild 7%
[08:59] {Threei}  end is near
[09:00] {nemo} guess they're gonna' get the bull by the horns alright...
[09:01] {Threei}  Greece election this weekend almost doesn't matter anymore
[09:02] {nemo} vad. I did a blog entry updating how price action has played out against the levels and how I made that call yesterday
[09:03] {Threei}  see it
[09:04] {nemo} I left the part out about the chicken entrails though, thought it a bit too graphic
[09:04] {Threei}  so I don't watch video now, was a trade on IWM?
[09:04] {nemo} A virgin sacrifice would have helped, but they're hard to find these days
[09:04] {Threei}  I understand... problems, problems
[09:05] {nemo} well, trade on IWM related.  Could have been IWM TNA UWM, etc.
[09:05] {Threei}  or TNA?
[09:05] {Threei}  ok
[09:07] {scottie} gm
[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:09] {Threei}
[09:09] {Threei}  charts are horryfying in this write-up
[09:13] {ese} gm
[09:14] {Threei}  ese :)ese :)
[09:14] {ese} vaddddddddddd!!!!!!!!!!!
[09:14] {ese} awesome news yesterday
[09:14] {Threei}  hm.. seeing double
[09:15] {Threei}  �
[09:15] {Threei}  ?
[09:15] {ese} The Midnights are going to be doing the Symphony Splash in the inner harbour
[09:15] {Threei}  wow
[09:15] {ese} got a call from the Executive director of the orchestra yesterday
[09:15] {Threei}  congratu;ations
[09:16] {ese} tks......
[09:16] {ese} don't get a chance to play for 10 to 20 thousnad people very often so it should be alot of fun
[09:16] {ese} although
[09:16] {Threei}  no kidding
[09:17] {ese} were are in the 2 to 4pm slot so there will only be about 5 to 8 thousand max at that time
[09:19] {Threei}  ese, look dcc pls
[09:19] {ese}   we will be on the barge in the middle of the harbour everyone
[09:20] {Threei}  coolest thing... ends with fireworks
[09:20] {Beau} good morning you all and ese-the star.
[09:21] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:23] {Threei}  SPY climbed back in green
[09:24] {jimmy} GM everyone
[09:24] {Threei}  jimmy :)
[09:24] {Threei}  the only reason for that I can think of is rumor that Greece "secret polls" show Democrats winning election
[09:24] {ese} tks B........will feel like one that day
[09:24] {Threei}  so the collapse is not this weekend yet if true
[09:26] {Threei}  could just as easily tunr out to be merely a speculation
[09:28] {Threei}  but with Spanish bonds yiled at 7%, I have hard time to view anything in bullish light
[09:31] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break hl
[09:31] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1
[09:34] {Threei}  1:2, out
[09:34] {Threei}  too soon
[09:34] {dptl} gm
[09:34] {scottie} scalped at .20 ty vad
[09:34] {Threei}  yw
[09:34] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:34] {Beau} good beginning vad
[09:35] {Threei}  SLW was on radar for short too but broke down with no setup
[09:38] {Threei} Short Setup: JNPR  16 break hl
[09:38] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[09:39] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:39] {Threei}  change to .10 break
[09:40] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .40 break
[09:40] {Threei}  If holds  .50 
[09:40] {Threei}  JNPR, let's keep .16 stop
[09:40] {Threei}  aggressive entry for that same 16
[09:40] {Threei}  so cover half just above it and see if it takes elevator down
[09:42] {Threei}  no go SLW
[09:43] {Threei}  x
[09:43] {Threei}  nevermind
[09:44] {Threei}  half out JNPR
[09:45] {Threei}  stop to .11
[09:45] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[09:45] {Threei}  OK JNPR... let's see waterfalls
[09:48] {Threei}  SINA
[09:48] {Threei}  Sina Corporation Ticking higher on blog reports that Sina Weibo microblog service will be fully integrated into Windows 8 operating system- Blog asserts that a Microsoft employee has confirmed in a company blog that Sina Weibo, the popular Twitter-like social network, will be fully integrated into the upcoming Windows 8 final release.
[09:48] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  22 break
[09:49] {Threei}  stop .94
[09:50] {Threei}  nope
[09:50] {Threei}  was good for measly 5 cents
[09:52] {Threei} Short Setup: MS  .55 break
[09:53] {Threei} Short Setup: JPM  .35 break
[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .45 
[09:54] {nemo} stealth climb in indexes
[09:54] {Threei}  disregard MS
[09:56] {Threei}  JPM's own setup is good, SPY disagrees
[09:57] {Threei}  OK, let's do a compromise - stop to .41
[09:57] {Threei}  tightening risk
[09:58] {Threei}  it's relative weakness looks promising but if market continues climbing...
[09:59] {scottie} out jpm flat
[09:59] {Threei}  out
[09:59] {Threei}  no news for this market move
[10:00] {Threei}  incredibly listless drifing this week
[10:00] {nemo} technical, IWM moved to Weekly Pivot
[10:00] {scottie} btw scalped jnpr for +.10, ty Vad
[10:00] {Threei}  :)
[10:04] {Threei}  watching TZA for dive under .60 for double bottom entry
[10:06] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .60 break
[10:06] {Threei}  If holds  .55 
[10:07] {dino} crazy market, -140, +140, -100, +90
[10:07] {Threei}  no kidding
[10:08] {Threei}  too many cross-currents
[10:08] {Threei}  spain... greece... qe3...
[10:08] {Threei}  friking JPM, rinse
[10:09] {Threei}  TZA target .75 - .80, two partials
[10:09] {Threei}  half out here
[10:09] {Threei}  stop to .58
[10:14] {Threei}  and on top of all that, Soc Gen yesterday said they see no way for Italy not to be next
[10:15] {Threei}  out second half .77
[10:16] {dino} aol stop -.21
[10:16] {Threei}  pleasant play on TZA, seen and called in advance
[10:17] {Threei}  JPM forms double bottm .20 - .25
[10:18] {Threei}  not sure we want it...
[10:18] {Threei}  nah, we don't
[10:21] {thomcbell} gdx looks very vulnerrable 
[10:22] {Threei}  thonkomg .40 break?
[10:22] {Threei}  thinking
[10:26] {Threei}  SPY stalled
[10:26] {Threei}  won't be for long though
[10:28] {Threei}  cipher... see if AAPL gives you double bottom under .50
[10:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .65 break hl
[10:31] {Threei}  If holds  .55 
[10:32] {Threei}  (EU) IMF: Hopeful G20 will make decisions regarding IMF resources at the upcoming meeting
[10:32] {Threei}  no go
[10:33] {Threei}  IMF had to open their mouth right this moment
[10:33] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 125M shares, about 24% below its three-month average; - NASDAQ volume 305M shares, about 19% below its three-month average
[10:34] {Threei}  with this volume, no wonder we get these whipsaws
[10:35] {scottie} cat rinse
[10:35] {Threei}  rinse is the constant motive of last two days
[10:36] {Threei}  I don't remember when we saw that many of them
[10:36] {Threei}  look it it
[10:37] {dino} pvh sm s .80 ave, bstop .01
[10:41] {dino} stop .99, -.19
[10:41] {dino} not my day so far
[10:41] {Threei}  50% Trust Romney More Than Obama To Handle Economy
[10:41] {Threei}  I'll trust only those who promise to stop handling it
[10:44] {Threei}  SPY starts looking like new highs in cards
[10:44] {Threei}  so, if that transpires, lt's try and adjust to rinses:
[10:44] {Threei}  let CAT break .90m, wait for a drop to about ,70, then enter
[10:45] {dino} pvh rinsed
[10:45] {Threei}  welcome to the club
[10:46] {dino} i'd like to says thanks, but...
[10:46] {Threei}  yeah :)
[10:47] {dino} i don't understand how this market is staying up w/all the euro news
[10:47] {Threei}  denial... hope for Greece election to go EU wasy...
[10:47] {Threei}  then Spain worries take over
[10:48] {Threei}  but for now Greece is the closest trouble
[10:49] {dino} the whole continent is going under
[10:50] {Threei}  well, it's so obvious by now that I have hard time understanding why Euro is not under parity yet
[10:50] {Threei}  maybe enormity of the event just prevents players from seeing it for what it is
[10:52] {Threei}  or they really hope for Germany to yiled to the pressure and take over all the debts
[10:52] {Threei}  (as if it fixes anything)
[10:52] {dino} i'm telling you, if i were germany i'd just leave the euro go back to d-mark
[10:54] {Threei}  in an ironic twist, this time CAT decided not to rinse
[10:56] {ese} outta here....busy couple of days....cya tomorrow
[10:56] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:58] {dino} cya
[11:05] {Threei} Short Setup: X  .34 break
[11:05] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[11:06] {dino} pvh sm s .27
[11:14] {Threei}  scratch X
[11:19] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .85 break hl
[11:19] {dino} pvh stop -.29
[11:19] {Threei}  stop under .75
[11:20] {Threei}  target 1:2
[11:21] {dino} pall spike
[11:21] {Threei}  Pall Corp Guides initial FY13 Rev up in low single digits; reaffirms FY12 EPS (cont ops) of about $2.72 v $2.71e - William Blair conf slides
[11:24] {Threei}  come on .90 seller, give up already
[11:24] {Threei}  finally
[11:25] {Threei}  1:1
[11:25] {Threei}  play by the book
[11:25] {Threei}  half out, stop to under b/e
[11:25] {scottie} target 1:3 now?
[11:25] {Threei}  1:2
[11:29] {scottie} played by the book +.21 ty Vad
[11:29] {Threei}  :)
[11:30] {nemo} grind up day
[11:30] {scottie} back on the + side
[11:30] {Threei}  yeah, squeezed last play just on that
[11:31] {Threei}  problem with such days usually is, they don't offer setups
[11:31] {Threei}  this one did though
[11:34] {scottie} 1:2 was perfect target Vad
[11:36] {nemo} iwm at trend
[11:41] {dino} fosl sm s .49 bstop hod
[11:47] {dino} fosl to b/e
[11:47] {scottie} hcp 42?
[11:52] {dino} cov fosl .39, +.10
[12:01] {dino} ugh fosl
[12:01] {dino} sm s pvh .80
[12:05] {Threei}  can't tell if trend changes or SPY just sleeps in a narrow range for a while
[12:05] {Threei}  be baclk in 20
[12:13] {dino} stop
[12:14] {dino} wtf another rinse
[12:35] {Threei}  (IT) Italy PM Monti: Discussed European integration, euro zone crisis with French President Hollande; agreed on main points needed to deal with the crisis- Monti notes he is clearly in the French camp when considering what measures to take to resolve the crisis
[12:35] {Threei}  but of course
[12:40] {Threei}  chuckle brothers...
[12:40] {Threei}  Need to boost growth without abandoning fiscal discipline, fiscal discipline alone is not enough to boost job, economic growth. - Reiterates need for Greece to stay in euro and honor its commitments.
[12:41] {Threei}  good luck with all that
[13:11] {Threei}  lol
[13:11] {Threei}  want more from one of chuckle brothers?
[13:11] {Threei}  (EU) France President Hollande: Europe needs mechanisms to prevent market speculation and support member states and banks facing turmoil
[13:21] {Threei}
[13:25] {dino} fosl sm s .56
[13:26] {nemo} was thinking time for faz before I went for coffee
[13:26] {Threei}  it as 50/50 really.ould have break downjust as easily
[13:36] {scottie} ed .45 ?
[13:36] {Threei}  no... too narrow
[13:36] {scottie} ok
[13:36] {Threei}  25 cents whole day's range
[13:37] {Threei}  unless you are willing to endure long fight for 5 cents gain, leave it be
[13:37] {scottie} would accept 5 cents with 1 million shares
[13:39] {dino} stop fosl
[13:42] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Syriza leader Tsipras: Reiterates that Syriza will not form a coalition government with pro-bailout parties- Reiterates that the election is a referendum on the bailout. - Spain was able to negotiate EU support without any demands for austerity.
[13:43] {dino} wow, rinsed again
[13:44] {Threei}  name of the game these two days
[13:45] {nemo} now are we getting the right side of an H&S on SPY and IWM
[13:47] {Threei}  if that's what plays out, then TZA should become a play here
[13:47] {Threei}  .60 break
[13:47] {Threei}  alternative, if loses .50, then .50 recross if holds .40
[13:48] {nemo} this 75.90 level WPP and 200 SMA on IWM
[13:48] {scottie} H&S nemo?
[13:48] {nemo} NKE shaping up short
[13:48] {nemo} Head & Shoulders-it's not another flaky pattern you know
[13:49] {scottie} of course thanks
[13:50] {nemo} actually that was the title of an SEC study on the pattern
[13:52] {scottie} in .51
[13:56] {scottie} wrong direction I'm out
[14:00] {nemo} NKE swatted down, back near lows, looks weak
[14:21] {dino} hun spike
[14:24] {dino} mkt dropping
[14:25] {dino} fosl sm s .16
[14:25] {Threei}  here comes TZA
[14:26] {Threei}  (EU) France Industry Minister: Germany Chancellor Merkel is "blinded by ideology."
[14:26] {Threei}  eeck
[14:27] {nemo} yeah, she doesn't want to fund their credit card indefinitely...
[14:27] {nemo} spy vwap
[14:27] {Threei}  amazing
[14:27] {nemo} what?
[14:27] {nemo} my intellectual brilliance?
[14:28] {Threei}  french chuckle brothers
[14:28] {Threei}  well, that too
[14:28] {nemo} ahhhh, sniff sniff
[14:28] {nemo} I'm such a humble sod of the earth kinda' guy
[14:29] {nemo} I do sometimes have trouble differentiating between fantasy and reality though
[14:29] {nemo} but....
[14:29] {nemo} I have bunny
[14:32] {Threei}  playboy bunny
[14:35] {nemo} unfortunately...nah
[14:35] {nemo} funny
[14:35] {nemo} bunny usually sleeps during the day and comes out around 4 or 5
[14:35] {nemo} but I start wrinkling the tortilla chip bag and suddenly I have a visitor
[14:36] {nemo} frickin' mexican bunny
[14:39] {Raven} Is bunny toilet trained?
[14:42] {nemo} she's house broken yes
[14:43] {nemo} wow...Thus spoke the Raven
[14:43] {nemo} I know that's mixing titles, but...
[14:43] {Threei}  spake
[14:43] {nemo} sprach
[14:43] {Raven} lol
[14:43] {nemo} Verdammte Vogel
[14:44] {Raven} is that bunny a cottontail?
[14:44] {nemo} Yeah, pretty amazing, they housebreak themselves...surprised when I read it
[14:44] {nemo} Yeah, my nephew saved it when it was a baby from a marauding feline
[14:44] {nemo} it was so small it could crawl down a toilet paper tube
[14:45] {Raven} is that bunny a cottontail?
[14:45] {nemo} ok looks like another drop coming, iwm pivot at .64
[14:45] {nemo} looking for long setup by then
[14:45] {nemo} yes it's a cottontail
[14:46] {Raven} Obama requires that you have a permit to keep a wild animal
[14:46] {nemo} no shit
[14:46] {Raven} of course
[14:46] {nemo} In Massachusetts having wild animals is an issue
[14:46] {nemo} My friend had a baby deer show up in his back yard
[14:46] {nemo} mother must have gotten killed
[14:46] {Raven} prolly need a State permit too
[14:46] {nemo} it would hang around with his dogs
[14:46] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .10 break
[14:46] {Raven} you are a criminal
[14:47] {nemo} he would put them in a pen at night and the deer would go with them
[14:47] {Threei}  If holds  26 
[14:47] {nemo} Needless to say he got busted.  $5k fine
[14:47] {nemo} The deer could come and go as it pleased, but they called it a pet
[14:47] {Raven} sheesh
[14:47] {nemo} this is fas vwap
[14:48] {nemo} yeah no kidding
[14:48] {dino} fosl bstop to .86
[14:48] {nemo} People's Republic of Massachusetts
[14:48] {Raven} yup
[14:49] {nemo} o.k. that IWM SPY long is shaping up
[14:49] {nemo} watch setup here IWM and .72 SPY
[14:50] {nemo} here we go
[14:50] {dino} cov fosl .82, +.34
[14:51] {nemo} not showing real strength yet though
[14:53] {nemo} not yet
[14:53] {Threei}  my target's 1:3
[14:53] {Threei}  if there is any leftovers of common sense, we should see nice juicy selloff now
[14:55] {dino} ndx red
[14:55] {nemo} tick keeps moving down
[14:55] {Threei}  COMP too
[14:59] {dino} fosl sm s .57
[14:59] {Threei}  stop .05 FAZ
[14:59] {Threei}  half out
[15:00] {dino} 07 all red
[15:00] {Threei}  let's try and ride this selling wave
[15:00] {Threei}  we waited for it long enough
[15:03] {Threei}  ugh
[15:03] {Threei}  scalpers win
[15:03] {scottie} That's it for me guys, see you tomorrow
[15:04] {Threei}  take care scottie
[15:04] {Threei}  TZA
[15:04] {Threei}  nice pullback
[15:04] {dino} cya
[15:04] {Threei}  watching for entry
[15:05] {dino} fosl stopped -.30
[15:06] {Threei}  hmmm
[15:06] {dino} pvh sm l .72
[15:06] {Threei}  must be news
[15:06] {nemo} new it was close 
[15:06] {nemo} knew
[15:06] {Threei}  yes
[15:06] {nemo} no
[15:06] {nemo} technical level
[15:06] {Threei}  no, news
[15:06] {Threei}  G20 said to indicate that Central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity if necessary after the Greece elections
[15:07] {dptl} see ya tomorrow all, got to go
[15:07] {dino} cya
[15:07] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:08] {dino} out pvh .22, +.50
[15:10] {thomcbell} this is bananas
[15:12] {dino} agreed
[15:12] {dino} seems they are getting ready for the greek drop out of euro
[15:12] {nemo} glad I was looking for a long there
[15:12] {nemo} vaseline anybody?
[15:13] {dino} so much for free markets
[15:15] {dino} doesn't make sense, standing ready is for bad news
[15:16] {thomcbell} unless you are balls short and leaning 
[15:16] {thomcbell} hehehe
[15:17] {dino} fosl sm s .60
[15:18] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.84 break if holding 45.95
[15:19] {nemo} well that sure F's up the setups
[15:19] {thomcbell} target 1:3
[15:19] {dino} cov fosl .20, +.40
[15:19] {thomcbell} 1:1
[15:20] {Beau} gj dino
[15:20] {dino} ty, need one more for green, rough morning
[15:21] {thomcbell} lvs 1:2
[15:22] {Threei}  nice
[15:22] {dino} gj
[15:22] {thomcbell} covered 1/4 here
[15:22] {dino} fosl sm s .09
[15:23] {thomcbell} 1:3
[15:23] {Threei}  interesting
[15:23] {Threei}  look how quickly market gets disillusioned
[15:23] {Threei}  this kind of news used to cause multidays' rally
[15:24] {nemo} reality set in that that's actually bad news
[15:24] {Threei}  now it buys us 5 min
[15:24] {thomcbell} stop to 45.66 on balance 
[15:24] {nemo} No, it buys me an open bottle
[15:24] {Threei}  just as Spain bailout bought us one gap
[15:24] {dino} lol
[15:25] {thomcbell} only 1/4 lvs left with 43.66 stop 
[15:26] {thomcbell} out 
[15:28] {Threei}  (GR) Euro zone finance ministers confirm to hold a conf call on Sunday night after the Greek election results to discuss the results
[15:29] {Threei}  CNBC's Liesman: Have contacted ECB over latest leaked reports on possible coordinated intervention for liquidity; ECB had no comment
[15:29] {Threei}  one thing is for sure: next week will be anything but boring
[15:30] {dino} germany preparing panzer division
[15:31] {Threei}  lol
[15:31] {dino} fosl stop
[15:32] {nemo} hehehehe...that was a leak to squeeze the shorts
[15:32] {nemo} too funny
[15:41] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[15:42] {Threei}  last scalp
[15:43] {Threei}  stop .34
[15:43] {Threei}  missed first spike for half out
[15:43] {dino} pvh sm s .35
[15:44] {thomcbell} we have to remember the heavy distribution on massive volume that happened in qcom today 
[15:45] {thomcbell} if gap up - nice short candidate 
[15:45] {Threei}  half out .47
[15:45] {Threei}  out second half
[15:45] {Threei}  sheesh
[15:45] {Threei}  what's with speed both ways
[15:46] {thomcbell} if u r short spy tonite there is a .70 dividend u r responsible 4
[15:46] {thomcbell} a friend just told me 
[15:49] {Threei}  could be a reason for some short covering
[15:51] {dino} crazy, they basically say we are preparing for the worst, so market goes up 100
[15:57] {Threei}  OK guys, thank you all
[15:58] {Threei}  have a good evening, qwe have even more fun tomorrow I suspect
[15:59] {dino} cov pvh .22 +.13