Friday, June 15, 2012

June 15 2012

Tough week and tough end to it, ended the day in negative. Really liked just one day, the rest was one whipsaw after another with rare good trades sprinkled here and there.  Happens sometimes - fortunately not very often.

Session Time: Fri Jun 15 00:00:00 2012
[09:07] {Threei}  Germany's Chancellor Merkel says Europe should simply start sticking to its promises
[09:07] {Threei}  good idea... now if the only could
[09:08] {scottie} gm
[09:08] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:12] {Threei}  some disconnects in the opening quotes
[09:12] {Threei}  SPY red, FCX and SLW green
[09:12] {Threei}  rare sight
[09:13] {scottie} ?? my spy is green (+.52)
[09:13] {Threei}  hmmm... something with y quotes?
[09:14] {nemo}
[09:14] {Threei}  133.3?
[09:14] {nemo} must not have adjusted for the dividend
[09:14] {scottie} yes, with close at 132.78
[09:15] {Threei}  why do I show close 133.49
[09:15] {thomcbell} dividend
[09:15] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:16] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:16] {Threei}  so, which is right?
[09:17] {scottie} my numbers are incorrect
[09:17] {scottie} on my graoh yesterday's close is at 133.49
[09:17] {scottie} graph
[09:20] {dptl} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:23] {ese} gm
[09:23] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:25] {dino} gm
[09:26] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:26] {ese} morning vad dino
[09:26] {Threei}  ese, dcc pls
[09:26] {Threei}  so... with big question mark hanging over this weekend's Greek election, which way is market going to bet
[09:28] {Threei}  I find I am able to argue both sides of the argument equally, lol
[09:29] {nemo} completely hedged
[09:29] {Threei}  let's be nimble for now
[09:29] {Threei}  see which way it leans
[09:29] {Threei}  I expect confusion to be major theme
[09:30] {dino} i don't get it, europe is basically going bankrupt and markets are going up
[09:30] {nemo} we're going bankrupt too
[09:30] {Threei}  in the process of falling apart it will inject a lot of newly created liquidity... that's marlet bet
[09:30] {nemo} if everybody is bankrupt, is anybody bankrupt?
[09:31] {nemo} I love anarchy
[09:31] {Threei} Long Setup:  SLW  .12 break hl
[09:32] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  28 break hl
[09:33] {nemo} spy riding WR1
[09:33] {Threei}  1:1 if you got it
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  34 break
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .90 
[09:35] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[09:36] {Threei}  (EU) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): Euro zone nations cannot cede too many powers to the center, need to maintain control over their own budgets- Euro zone needs more national liability and a better euro framework.
[09:36] {Threei}  then he had a shot of that great vodka called finland, and added: - Crises usually last ten years, the euro zone crisis isn't over yet.
[09:37] {Threei}  EMU is 12 years old
[09:37] {Threei}  10 years of crisis? lol
[09:37] {nemo} they live that long
[09:37] {Threei}  change FCX trigger to .90 break
[09:37] {Threei}  If holds  .85 
[09:37] {thomcbell} Watching for double top to develop on FB 
[09:38] {Threei}  you can short it?
[09:38] {Threei}  still not available I think
[09:38] {thomcbell} oh i suppose not 
[09:38] {nemo} frickin' nav
[09:39] {Threei}  no go FCX
[09:40] {nemo} fcx here
[09:40] {dino} fosl sm s .26
[09:41] {dino} stop .54, -.28
[09:42] {Threei}  RCL
[09:42] {Threei}  put on radar for pullback entry
[09:43] {nemo} fcx 34 offer
[09:43] {Threei}  ideally around .25
[09:43] {nemo} addeded .01
[09:44] {Threei}  Officials: US to stop deporting and grant work permits to younger illegal immigrants
[09:45] {Threei}  because we have labot shortage, right?
[09:45] {nemo} right
[09:45] {Threei}  labor
[09:45] {nemo} this country is so weird
[09:45] {Threei}  RCL no pullbavk
[09:45] {nemo} stop to .94 on fcx
[09:46] {Threei}  let's see if it forms reversal instead
[09:47] {Threei} Short Setup: RCL  .55 break
[09:47] {Threei}  If holds  .65 
[09:47] {nemo} taking half fcx here .05
[09:47] {Threei}  target 1:2
[09:47] {Threei}  good one nemo
[09:47] {nemo} ty
[09:48] {Threei}  wait out first break and rinse, take second setup... I should do that more often these rinsing days :)
[09:48] {nemo} quad witching hour no less
[09:48] {nemo} hurry up and wait day
[09:49] {Threei} Short Setup: CCL  65 break
[09:49] {Threei}  If holds  .70 
[09:49] {nemo} stop to .98
[09:50] {thomcbell} QCOM 
[09:51] {Threei}  let's trail RCL to .61
[09:51] {thomcbell} seemingly easy short but such a quick setup 
[09:51] {ese} L RIO .51
[09:51] {Threei}  out
[09:52] {thomcbell} long setup ETN - 39.64 break if holding 39.54
[09:52] {nemo} iwm looks like breakout
[09:54] {nemo} oh well
[09:54] {dino}  fosl break .00 sm s
[09:54] {thomcbell} etn invalidated
[09:54] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .30 break hl
[09:54] {ese} might take that bet nemo
[09:54] {Threei}  If holds  .20 
[09:55] {Threei}  what was that?
[09:55] {nemo} iwm breakout
[09:55] {thomcbell} long setup gld 157.81 break if hlding 157.70? Vad?
[09:55] {nemo} but, not yet
[09:55] {ese} ya
[09:55] {dino} 07 all red
[09:55] {scottie} tna -.23, that was fast
[09:56] {Threei}  chart looks right tbell
[09:56] {Threei}  but you see the action
[09:56] {thomcbell} y
[09:56] {nemo} tna is like that, keep jar of vaseline on desk
[09:56] {thomcbell} 1/2 lot probably 
[09:57] {Threei}  it's confidence numbers nemo
[09:57] {Threei}  now it does what it was going to
[09:58] {nemo} fcx again
[10:00] {ese} mrkt seems to be shrugging off u of m #'s
[10:00] {Threei}  yeah, it all doesn't matter
[10:01] {Threei}  europe is the ultimate decider of the next direction in bigger picture
[10:02] {Threei}  I don't remember this many rinses in one week
[10:02] {Threei}  look at TNA
[10:04] {thomcbell} slw may not work today but Daily chart starting to interest me 
[10:04] {thomcbell} on long 
[10:04] {thomcbell} looks coiled
[10:09] {thomcbell} lvs looking vulnerable 
[10:13] {Threei}  (US) President Obama to issue statement on immigration at 13:15ET- Plan purportedly issues amnesty to younger illegal immigrants
[10:14] {Threei}  need those ethic votes, you know
[10:15] {Threei}  ethnic
[10:15] {scottie} JBL?
[10:15] {nemo} hispanic to be specific
[10:16] {Threei}  too narrow for my taste
[10:16] {ese} out 1/2 RIO .72 +.21 1/2 lot to go
[10:16] {scottie} ok
[10:16] {dino}  gj
[10:17] {Beau} nice going ese
[10:17] {ese} stop to .57 balance
[10:17] {ese} tks
[10:17] {ese} free money
[10:18] {ese} ya gotta love a world that provides that.........
[10:18] {Threei}  that's what Greece said 10 years ago
[10:18] {ese} stopped
[10:18] {ese} lol
[10:18] {ese} +.06 on a 1/2 lot
[10:20] {thomcbell} short setup lvs 45.23 break if holding 45.38 - 1/2 lot 
[10:20] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .50 break hl
[10:20] {dino} last try fosl sm s .25 
[10:20] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[10:22] {Threei}  change to .40 break
[10:23] {Threei}  change to .35 break
[10:23] {nemo} yeah, spy at weekly r1 
[10:24] {nemo} if this doesn't fly, waitu until spy gets to .20-.25, look for fas too
[10:25] {Threei}  change to .25 break
[10:25] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[10:25] {nemo} think spy goes to pivot first
[10:26] {ese} have to go all....cya monday
[10:26] {Threei}  should trigger now
[10:26] {Threei}  target .55
[10:26] {Threei}  take care ese
[10:26] {scottie} leaving now, have a nice weekend all
[10:26] {Threei}  you too scottie
[10:29] {Threei}  1:1
[10:31] {Threei}  scalpers win
[10:31] {Threei}  couple cents to 1:2
[10:31] {thomcbell} lvs 1:1
[10:33] {nemo} this is the hardest op ex in a long time to trade
[10:33] {thomcbell} partialled lvs here at 45.06
[10:36] {thomcbell} took in somemore lvs 
[10:36] {thomcbell} stop on balance to 45.16 
[10:38] {Threei}  uptrend feels exhausted
[10:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .25 break
[10:39] {Threei}  If holds  .15 
[10:40] {thomcbell} flattening lvs here
[10:42] {Beau} valid again?
[10:42] {Threei}  yrd
[10:42] {Threei}  yes
[10:44] {thomcbell} long setup slw 27.90 break if holding 27.80 which is the pivot 
[10:45] {thomcbell} target 1:2
[10:45] {Threei}  changing TZA to .20
[10:45] {thomcbell} obviously closing at 28 even 
[10:46] {thomcbell} never ceases to amaze me 
[10:46] {Threei}  Invalidated  
[10:51] {Threei}  LVS looks to me ready for another step down
[10:51] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  45 break
[10:52] {Threei}  Invalidated  FOR  now but remainds on radar
[10:57] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .20 break
[10:57] {Threei}  If holds  .25 
[10:57] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .05 break
[10:58] {nemo} [artoa; bu OW{ 76.40 if it triggers
[10:58] {nemo} wow
[10:58] {Threei}  hmmm
[10:58] {Threei}  lol
[10:58] {nemo} partial by iwm 76.40 if it triggers
[10:59] {Threei}  LVS not ready yet
[11:00] {Threei}  this shapes up as the toughest week of this year
[11:00] {dino}  cov.fosl +.30
[11:00] {Threei}  no big losing days but the whipsaw is almost endless
[11:01] {Threei}  we had one typical day with 7 wins out of 8 calls
[11:01] {Threei}  the rest was nevereneding back and forth
[11:06] {Threei} Short Setup: LVS  .35 break
[11:07] {thomcbell} nice tight stop there on lvs 
[11:07] {thomcbell} thing is a nuisance though
[11:07] {thomcbell} now all the sudden it trades well
[11:07] {Threei}  what isn't this week, lol
[11:08] {Threei}  even nemo, usually so polite and generally pleasant, this week is pure nuisance
[11:09] {thomcbell} hehehe
[11:09] {Threei}  {G}
[11:09] {Threei}  I think he fainted
[11:10] {Threei}  or loads his gun... he doesn't usually forgive people for calling him pleasant
[11:15] {nemo} back and forth, was somebody insulting my curmudgeonly nature?
[11:16] {Threei}  someone totally insane suddenly came in here, called you "nice and plesant" and left in as hurry
[11:16] {nemo} not good
[11:16] {nemo} don't let them back in
[11:16] {nemo} get me their address
[11:16] {Threei}  I tried to grab him andf hold him down for you
[11:20] {nemo} iwm moves but spy doesn't really follow, and financials starting to weaken
[11:22] {nemo} probably looking at pullbacks to vwap 
[11:31] {Threei}  Hope of Coordinated Action Distract Markets from the Grim Reality in Athens
[11:32] {nemo} bad news being bought
[11:36] {nemo} now can this weakness break the trend lines, not so far
[11:40] {nemo} momentum continues to drop
[11:41] {Threei}  but price copntinues climbing
[11:42] {nemo} can't break trend line
[11:42] {nemo} ya know a stop flush is comng though
[11:50] {dino} gotta hop for hour or so, tenant issues
[11:51] {nemo} need help getting rid of the body?
[11:51] {dino} lol, no getting a new one, keys, etc
[11:51] {Threei}  lol
[11:53] {nemo} ok, this should be the drop to vwap, iwm vwap is on trendline also
[12:10] {nemo} better attach the chin pillow
[12:18] {nemo} arguably this is getting into long area
[12:18] {Threei}  so slow, it can be anything
[12:19] {nemo} yeah, just saying in dications, but I would rather wait until price action reaches trendlines plotted levels or vwap
[12:21] {nemo} figures
[12:25] {Threei}  drop
[12:25] {Threei}  (GR) S&P issues commentary on Greece exit impact on domestic companies
[12:26] {Threei}  nah, nothing significant
[12:28] {nemo} spy at vwap iwm coming into trend and fas looking long too, might bet a bounce
[12:39] {nemo} vwap .52 on iwm, spy at retracement and just below WS1
[12:58] {Threei}  if there is any common sense left in the world, we should see selling come ikn last hour
[12:59] {Threei}  then sagain... common sense isn't
[13:06] {Threei}  (GR) Sean Egan (Egan Jones): Greece cannot shoulder any debt
[13:06] {nemo} spy will test yesterday's highs
[13:07] {Threei}  (FR) France Govt said to expect bilateral relations with Germany to be unaffected following recent comments from Germany Chancellor Merkel
[13:08] {Threei}  (DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Europe must discuss growing differences in economic strength between France and Germany - comments from regular meeting with German state leaders- Germany will reject any 'quick fix' to crisis solution at upcoming G20, including Eurobonds or joint liabilities in the euro zone }- Germany is doing enough for consumer demand
[13:08] {Threei}  can you believe market goes up against such a backdrop?
[13:09] {nemo} yep, expecting huge QE
[13:09] {Threei}  but everything points out there won't be anything but little here and there
[13:09] {Threei}  Germany doesn't budge
[13:10] {nemo} market thinks when push comes to shove capitulation on the issue
[13:10] {Threei}  and doesn't look like it ever will
[13:12] {Threei}  I'll be back in 40 min guys, doc appointment
[[13:26] {Beau}  psychologist?
[13:33] {nemo} no, he committed suicide on him last year
[13:36] {nemo} interesting, gs at the top of it's range
[13:36] {nemo} look for a run if this keeps up
[14:00] {Threei}  back
[14:06] {Threei}  Ex-Soros Adviser Fujimaki Says Japan to Probably Default by 2017
[14:11] {Threei}  (GR) Greece New Democracy leader(pro bailout party) Samaras reiterates Greece will not leave the EMU; this weekend's elections are a choice between the Euro and the Drachma
[14:11] {Threei}  lol
[14:23] {nemo} looks like they want the spy 134 strikes
[14:25] {nemo} MPPs 78.00 and 134.25
[14:28] {nemo} this is pointing to huge up on Monday, question is, will they sell it off like last Monday
[14:29] {Threei}  well, it's still up tp result of election
[14:30] {nemo} Goldman knows
[14:50] {Threei}  if we finally come to some point where common sense returns to this planet, wasnt TZA near .50 fir antry with stop under .40
[14:53] {Threei}  yeah right
[14:53] {Threei}  no pullback whatsoever
[14:59] {Threei}  if we still get this drop to around .50, it'll constitute nice legit double bottom
[15:12] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[15:12] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[15:32] {nemo} I think we still go higher
[15:41] {nemo} financials on highs energy near highs IWM and SPY, we go higher monday, I would say big gap up
[15:42] {Threei}  out
[15:42] {Threei}  had a sell at .59, 1 cent short
[15:42] {nemo} spy takes out the 134 strikes
[15:43] {Threei}  I officially hate this week
[15:47] {nemo} spy going for Monthly Pivot
[15:47] {nemo} 13 minutes plenty of thime to go .14 cents
[15:49] {Threei}  PIMCO ?@PIMCO
[15:49] {Threei}  Gross: Global world war on deflation underway. Question is will they win and can asset markets benefit? Becoming doubtful as to latter
[15:57] {nemo} Vad...take Monday off, it's not gonna' be your kind of day
[15:57] {Threei}  lol
[15:57] {Threei}  can I watch?
[15:57] {nemo} weirdo
[15:57] {Threei}  hehe
[15:57] {Threei}  that's OK, I adjust quickly
[15:58] {Threei}  we will see how it goes
[15:58] {nemo} I would think spy 136 area
[15:58] {Threei}  we may get that gap of yors and sell off like crazy
[15:58] {Threei}  just like last Monday
[15:58] {Threei}  or we may gap down big if Cyritza wins
[15:58] {nemo} and there's MPP on SPY
[15:58] {Threei}  anywa, hated this week except for one day
[15:59] {nemo} no, because then the governments will be falling all over themselves to suck.....her placate him
[15:59] {Threei}  let's have a relaxing weekend and get them next week
[15:59] {dptl} gn
[16:00] {Threei}  look at TZA