Thursday, June 21, 2012

June 21 2012

Didn't handle this day exactly right even though got the direction correctly. A few trades worked very nicely but there were a few too many rinses.

Session Time: Thu Jun 21 00:00:00 2012
[09:10] {Beau} good morning all
[09:10] {Threei}  OK... let's admit it... time to wake up
[09:10] {Threei}  Beau :)
[09:11] {Threei}  so, practically no reaction to this:
[09:11] {Threei}  *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 387K V 383KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.299M V 3.278ME- Prior Initial Claims revised higher from 386K to 389K - Prior Continuing Claims higher from 3.278M to 3.299M - 4-week avg claims: 386.3K v 382.0K w/w
[09:11] {Threei}  did market lose sensitivity to job numbers?
[09:12] {thomcbell} bad news no reaction = bullish
[09:13] {Threei}  or,
[09:13] {_daniel} gm all
[09:13] {Threei}  other lineage of news is so influential that this one practically doesn't matter
[09:13] {Threei}  daniel :)
[09:14] {Threei}  on all the overnight hpp[la there was one important bit,
[09:14] {Threei}  about Germany opposition coming close to agreeing on another EU rescue
[09:14] {Threei}  and Spanish bonds retreated to about 6.50
[09:15] {Threei}  However important job numbers are, that's not the focus of main worry right now... it's all about EU
[09:22] {dino} gm
[09:22] {Threei}  dino :)
[09:23] {dino} hey, login worked
[09:24] {Threei}  cool :)
[09:25] {Threei}  Nigel Farage is my hero
[09:25] {Threei}  Nigel Farage: "EC president Jose Barroso is a Delusional Idiot, The Whole Thing's a Giant Ponzi Scheme!"
[09:25] {Threei}
[09:26] {dino} finally someone speaks the truth
[09:26] {Threei}  when got a min, listen to him
[09:28] {Threei}  waiting out first minutes... reluctantly biased long so far
[09:31] {dptl} gm
[09:32] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .80 break hl
[09:32] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:33] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[09:35] {Threei}  still valid
[09:35] {Threei}  change to .75 break
[09:36] {Threei}  to .70
[09:36] {Threei}  If holds  .60
[09:37] {Threei}  no go
[09:40] {Threei}  (EU) Moody's is said to be planning to issue bank downgrade announcements today - financial press- For Global banks **Note that earlier this morning, there was chatter circulating that Moody's could downgrade the UK banking sector as soon as today.
[09:41] {ese} ahhhhh good morning
[09:41] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:43] {Threei}  a lot of numbers coming at 10
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  IWM  .10 break
[09:44] {Threei}  If holds  .05
[09:44] {Threei}  very tight stop
[09:44] {Threei}  target .25
[09:46] {Threei}  half out .18
[09:46] {Threei}  stop to .09
[09:47] {ese} am eyeing CELG dino
[09:48] {ese} has taken a beating for nothing this morning
[09:48] {dino} lqdt blood again
[09:48] {ese} am watching that as well
[09:48] {dino} bbby
[09:49] {dino} celg
[09:49] {ese} yup
[09:49] {Threei}  Celgene Corp To withdraw Revlimid submission from the CHMP, plan to re-submit later with "more mature" data; reaffirms FY12 $4.70-4.80 v $4.80e, R$5.4-5.6B v $5.43Be- 2015 financial targets:
[09:49] {ese} thats data that can read and write properly
[09:50] {dino} clc
[09:52] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[09:52] {Threei}  want to try for one more spike for the last piece
[09:52] {Threei}  closer to .30
[09:52] {ese} BBBY thats almost lowered to 80 from 84 so the markt makers tank it to 63 just for the added extra bonus of 20 dollars profit instead of 10
[09:52] {Threei}  there
[09:53] {Threei}  out .30
[09:53] {Threei}  not bad for 6 cents risk
[09:54] {dino} took some july 65 calls on it ese
[09:55] {Threei}  backing off until after numbers, there are like 5 or 6 of them at 10
[09:56] {ese} that should pay off really well
[09:56] {nemo} I'm here
[09:56] {Threei}  finally
[09:56] {dino} whew
[09:56] {Threei}  we cried
[09:56] {ese} it's brazenly greedy.......
[09:57] {Threei}  ese refused to eat
[09:57] {ese} phewwwwww!
[09:57] {nemo} nice to be missed
[09:59] {ese} lol
[10:00] {Threei}  yikes
[10:00] {nemo} wtf
[10:00] {Threei}  home sales bad
[10:00] {Threei}  Phil fed is horrible
[10:00] {Threei}  Eurozone confidence bad
[10:00] {nemo} YAHOOOOOOOOO anarchy here we come!!!
[10:00] {Threei}  house price index for Apr is decent
[10:01] {nemo} iwm at support from yesterday
[10:01] {nemo} MPP
[10:02] {Threei}  we traded it nemo, while you were out... you'd be proud of us
[10:02] {nemo} cool
[10:03] {Threei}  ese, look dcc pls
[10:03] {nemo} this is 50 day SMA for spy
[10:03] {Threei}  (GR) Finland Fin Min: Reiterates that giving Greece more time to reach austerity targets is not a good idea
[10:04] {Threei}  Greece: make sure our border posts have this guy's photo...
[10:04] {Threei} Short Setup: SLW  .30 break
[10:07] {Threei}  If holds  .40
[10:10] {Threei}  nope
[10:11] {nemo} it's at resistance with .45 being vwap
[10:12] {Threei}  things are strangely slow
[10:12] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .40 break
[10:12] {Threei}  If holds  .45
[10:13] {ese} L celg sm .53
[10:14] {Threei}  target .25, two partials
[10:14] {_dolores} GM
[10:14] {Threei}  morning dolores
[10:14] {ese} D  welcome
[10:14] {_dolores} thxs
[10:15] {_dolores} now FCX if breaks .40?
[10:15] {Threei}  it's a short call
[10:15] {Threei}  just triggered
[10:16] {Threei}  stop .46
[10:16] {_dolores} ok
[10:16] {ese} out celg .74 +.21
[10:16] {Threei}  wtg
[10:17] {ese} tks
[10:17] {ese} chip off the ole dino block
[10:18] {nemo} fcx at trend, vwap is .54
[10:19] {ese} anyone possibly looking at SLW L .50
[10:20] {ese} L slw .48
[10:21] {Threei}  held by fingertips
[10:22] {ese} yup
[10:22] {ese} spyders gonna be the death of me
[10:23] {Threei}  cover the first half here
[10:24] {Threei}  stop to .42
[10:26] {ese} daaaa
[10:26] {ese} ouuuuuuu but hangin in there.........i like that move
[10:28] {Threei}  this sloooow slide makes me think it's a strong trend
[10:28] {Threei}  market can move like this for quite a while
[10:29] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .80 break
[10:29] {Threei}  If holds  .70
[10:30] {Threei}  volume is so-so
[10:31] {Threei}  - NYSE volume 140M shares, about 18% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.1:1. - NASDAQ volume 350M shares, about 10% below its three-month average; decliners lead advancers by 2.2:1.
[10:31] {ese} this would be your basic triple bottom on dee one minute chart for slw
[10:31] {ese} it's the summer time
[10:32] {ese} people going on holidays.....that gives nemo free rain to wreak havoc on the markets
[10:33] {nemo} wanna pee your pants laughing?
[10:33] {nemo}
[10:33] {dino} celg sm l .20
[10:35] {dino} out celg .55, +.35
[10:35] {ese} lol.......thats is funny....
[10:35] {Threei}  beauty dino
[10:36] {dino} ty
[10:36] {ese} nice dino
[10:40] {nemo} ntap mightt be a short here
[10:40] {nemo} DBI
[10:42] {nemo} nope
[10:42] {nemo} lqdt cipher dino
[10:43] {nemo} I think it's working it
[10:43] {Threei}  not finding much
[10:43] {nemo} s way down to theat 47.50 area gap
[10:45] {Threei}  huh... nemo, court just cleared your way to TV screen
[10:45] {Threei}  US Supreme Court strikes down policy regulating curse words on broadcast television
[10:46] {nemo}  It's about $%*@&n! time!!!
[10:48] {_daniel} lots of triangles setting up on this slowdown
[10:48] {ese} lol
[10:49] {ese} ya....what the ^%$%^% esle should happen eh
[10:49] {Threei}  when things are this slow, traditional setups tend to fail more frequently
[10:50] {nemo} "triangles"???
[10:50] {nemo} crissakes, dino sees dead people and daniel sees triangles, then again I see bunnies
[10:50] {_daniel} triangles in consolidation. CELG is good example
[10:50] {ese} the words "on the cusp"   come to mind as I await the inevitable profit of slw
[10:51] {nemo} oh, you mean like a pennant formation?
[10:51] {nemo} whichever way it breaks
[10:51] {_daniel} exactly
[10:52] {nemo} Vad...teach daniel how to spell, would ya'?
[10:52] {_daniel} should have use the word pennant instead of triangle :)
[10:52] {dino} as in world series?
[10:52] {_daniel} AMZN just broke his formation
[10:53] {nemo} no, works for me, just trying to understand what you're saying..btw..we spell exactly=eqzaktly
[10:53] {_daniel} :)
[10:54] {dino} cern sm l .00
[10:55] {nemo} vwap at .26
[10:55] {dino} yes
[10:56] {nemo} mcp at major resistance, might get some back filling here
[10:56] {_daniel} vwap?
[10:56] {nemo} Volume Weighted Average Price
[10:56] {nemo} many of the algo's use it
[10:56] {dino} lqdt sm l .96
[10:57] {nemo} was just thinking that dino
[10:57] {ese} L celg .49999999
[10:57] {dino} great minds...
[10:57] {nemo} spy and iwm coming off
[10:58] {nemo} Ha!  If your mind operates like mine, seek professional help immediately!!!
[10:58] {ese} lol
[10:58] {ese} the two of ya........bunch of cards
[10:58] {dino} well, i do see dead people
[10:59] {ese} spyders ont helping my celg &^%&^% all
[10:59] {ese} not
[10:59] {dino} i like it around .20
[11:00] {nemo} mcp could be a short below .10
[11:01] {ese} am sm just 400 so can afford to take some heat here.....shouldn't be a problem.......BUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!  ya never know
[11:01] {nemo} partialed .99
[11:02] {nemo} now it stops trading
[11:02] {nemo} wtf
[11:03] {ese} slw on the other hand is seriously pi^%%#% me off
[11:03] {Threei} Long Setup:  TNA  .10 break
[11:03] {Threei}  If holds  50
[11:03] {nemo} 1/4 more .75
[11:03] {nemo} stop to .90
[11:03] {dino} lqdt stop -.31
[11:03] {Threei}  change to 50 break
[11:03] {nemo} this is fib support for spy and iwm
[11:03] {Threei}  .94 stop
[11:04] {ese} what brought that little tank in the mrkt on.........
[11:04] {Threei}  no go
[11:05] {dino} reality
[11:06] {nemo} stop to .80
[11:06] {Threei}  (DE) Germany reportedly seeking implementation of financial transaction taxes on certain nations if attempts to implement Europe wide fails
[11:06] {Threei}  lol
[11:07] {dino} celg sm l .20
[11:07] {nemo} too funny...if HFT is a large a portion of trading here as they think, that FTT would wipe out the industry and the market volume
[11:07] {Threei}  .85 break new setup
[11:08] {Threei}  .74 stop
[11:08] {Threei}  nope
[11:08] {Threei}  backing off
[11:08] {ese} 3 smartest kids in my pre calculus class were German....95/96 and 98%
[11:08] {nemo} imo, tna will be a play off of spy somewhere between here and .37
[11:08] {Threei}  new lows are coming
[11:09] {Threei}  SPY loses support
[11:10] {Threei}  my first read was right:
[11:10] {Threei}  10:28] {Threei} this sloooow slide makes me think it's a strong trend
[11:10] {Threei}  [10:28] {Threei} market can move like this for quite a while
[11:10] {Threei}  din't know why I changed from it
[11:10] {Threei}  misread the pause for a turn
[11:12] {nemo} here's .37 let's see
[11:15] {dino} cern just fell off cliff
[11:15] {nemo} I took .58 last quarter mcp
[11:16] {dino} re-try cern sm l .00 ave, stop lod
[11:19] {nemo} my exit from mcp was fortuitous
[11:23] {dino} out cern .32, +.32
[11:23] {_daniel} nice pullback hunting dino
[11:25] {dino} \ty
[11:26] {thomcbell} this spy wedge on daily looking ominous now - could be 1290 in a blink
[11:46] {_daniel} ok gents, i will call it a day now
[11:48] {Threei}  take care daniel
[11:56] {ese} out celg .86 +.36
[11:56] {ese} dino you still in....
[11:57] {ese} if you are...awesome from .20
[11:58] {dino} out .94 celg +.74
[11:58] {dino} lucky, was on the phone
[11:59] {ese} nice!
[12:05] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .90 break hl
[12:05] {Threei}  If holds  86
[12:09] {Threei}  target 1:2
[12:10] {Threei}  sigh
[12:16] {nemo} lok at cat daily...bear flag
[12:21] {Threei}  now it works
[12:22] {nemo} one has to wonder, you're at lunch time on a down day, so things are going to get slower...does that make the likelihood of breaks lower, and buying support selling resistance a better idea
[12:23] {Threei}  often, yes
[12:23] {nemo} btw...this is the SOGOTP level for cat
[12:26] {Threei}  grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
[12:27] {Threei}  don't know how I managed to screw up this day, it's almost perfect trading environment
[12:35] {Threei}  (ES) Independent auditors release results on Spanish banking sector; Spain banks need �16-20B capital needed in baseline scenario; �51-62B in adverse scenario- Spain notes the �100B loan from the EU would provide a large cushion; banks capital needs are manageable. - Three largest banks will not need any new capital. - Spanish Econ Ministry: To formally request aid in the next few days
[12:36] {Threei}  so, how long will it take these idiots to destroy Spain?
[12:36] {dino} 6 weeks
[12:37] {Threei}  can't believe it... one beautiful country after another is getting bulldozed
[12:38] {Threei}  by this unholy union of communist politicians and socialist bankers
[12:45] {_jackharry} Unfortunately Europe's political elite don't care. The Euro  was a combination of a huge vanity project and a way of engineering a politically united europe by the back door by Europe's political elite. Unfortunately they have created a burning building with no exits and it is the people who were given no say in this project that are being burnt
[12:45] {Threei}  so very true
[12:45] {Threei}  OK, I havbe to try this again:
[12:46] {Threei} Short Setup: CAT  .80 break
[12:46] {Threei}  change to .90
[12:47] {Threei}  stop .05
[12:47] {Threei}  nope... not my day
[13:01] {dino} sssssssslllllllllllllaaaaaaaaaaaapppppppppppppp!!!!!!!!
[13:02] {Threei}  (IT) Italy Treasury Official: Italy is missing its 2012 deficit target by �4B, must make up the difference with more spending cuts
[13:02] {Threei}  ***Note that on June 20th, Le Figaro reported that France was falling �10B short of its 2012 budget deficit target
[13:22] {Threei}  (US) Fitch: US insurer margins to come under pressure from extension of Operation Twist
[13:23] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .40 break
[13:24] {Threei}  stop .34
[13:27] {Threei}  first part out .49
[13:28] {Threei}  stop to .38
[13:36] {ese} gonna catch you all tomorrow on the flip side have a great rest of the day
[13:37] {Threei}  take care ese
[13:37] {Threei}  1/4 more out
[13:37] {Threei}  .57
[13:37] {Threei}  finally got a good one
[13:43] {dino} gj
[13:43] {Threei}  ty
[13:44] {_jackharry} out half at .53 and half at .62, thank you
[13:44] {Beau} missed it - bathroom - may shoot myself
[13:45] {Threei}  or toss the grenade in the bathroom
[13:50] {dino} think he just dropped it
[13:50] {Threei}  lol
[13:51] {Beau} loading .45
[13:55] {nemo} Beau, you hunt?
[13:58] {Beau} not after marriage
[13:59] {Beau} oh you mean animals. no
[13:59] {nemo} oh
[14:00] {nemo} Marriage: A ceremony in which rings are put on the finger of the lady and through the nose of the gentleman. ~Herbert Spence
[14:01] {dino} 3 rings of marriage, engagement ring, wedding ring, & suffering
[14:01] {Beau} LOL
[14:08] {Threei}  out last part .67
[14:08] {Threei}  whew
[14:09] {nemo} Marriage is exchanging the praises of many for the criticism of one
[14:09] {nemo} Call no man unhappy until he is married. ~ Socrates
[14:09] {nemo} By all means marry; if you get a good wife, you'll be happy. If you get a bad one, you'll become a philosopher. - Socrates
[14:16] {Threei}  look at SPY intraday,
[14:16] {Threei}  and read this again:
[14:16] {Threei}  [10:28] {Threei} this sloooow slide makes me think it's a strong trend
[14:16] {Threei}  [10:28] {Threei} market can move like this for quite a while
[14:17] {Threei}  now, can you tell me why didn't I listen to myself?
[14:21] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .85 break hl
[14:21] {Threei}  If holds  .75
[14:23] {thomcbell} bbby almost capitulation here
[14:23] {thomcbell} voluem pumping on 1 min chart
[14:26] {nemo} likely to get a bounce on spy between .70-.64
[14:27] {Threei}  FAZ frikin 50 cents move since our entry
[14:28] {thomcbell} long small bbby target is 61.40
[14:28] {Threei}  New Hampshire: #Obama 48%, #Romney 43%
[14:29] {Threei}  so much for "Live Free or Die"
[14:33] {Threei}  show us panic, SPY
[14:34] {nemo} Too many Massholes moved north
[14:34] {Threei}  trying to escape your wrath?
[14:34] {nemo} This state is a cesspool of Marxism and cronyism
[14:35] {thomcbell} made small sale bbby at 61.05
[14:36] {Threei}  nice bottom catch
[14:37] {Threei}  OK SPY, you paused long enough to give hope to a new crop of bottom-fishers and lure them in
[14:37] {Threei}  now drop sharply and kill them
[14:41] {Threei}  no go
[14:41] {Threei}  oh well... some days are not supposed to be repaired I guess
[14:52] {Threei}  EU) Eurogroup is said to have informally agreed to use EFSF for Spain banking system bailout - financial press- Loans to be transferred to the ESM later.
[14:53] {Threei}  yeah, that changes everything
[14:56] {thomcbell} another small sale bbby
[14:58] {thomcbell} stop to 60.98 on balance
[15:02] {nemo} iwm and spy could very well make a run here
[15:03] {Threei}  or drop sharply...
[15:05] {Threei}  this is what it often does when imitates attempt to bounce
[15:06] {nemo} IWM might set up right side of IH&S
[15:06] {nemo} having said that wpp on spy and s3 on iwm served as resistance
[15:12] {Threei}  what do you know... this TZA stop is going to turn into rinse
[15:17] {Threei}  watching FCX for short into bounce
[15:20] {dino} gold looking like deflation/defaults coming
[15:20] {Threei}  then don't even look at oil :)
[15:21] {dino} yeah, see that too
[15:22] {Threei}  come on FCX
[15:22] {Threei}  jump to just above .10
[15:22] {Threei}  to shake out premature shorts and stop them out
[15:22] {nemo} cl_f 78.57 and dropping
[15:22] {Threei}  privinding us with antry in the process
[15:23] {nemo} watch it, spy just hit s3 on the daily
[15:25] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .10 break
[15:25] {_jackharry} 5 US banks will be downgraded by moodys- CNBC
[15:25] {Threei}  and about 15 UK ones by Moody
[15:26] {_jackharry} yep
[15:26] {Threei}  stop .16
[15:26] {Threei}  keeping it tight
[15:30] {nemo} higher probability of shorts packing it in
[15:31] {Threei}  with such tight stop willing to give it a chance,
[15:31] {Threei}  and plan is:
[15:32] {Threei}  cover half just above 33,
[15:32] {Threei}  then see if we get breeakdown and cascading selloff into eod pani
[15:36] {dino} cern sm l .76
[15:41] {dino} gs sm l .14, stop lod
[15:50] {dptl} gn all
[15:50] {Threei}  take care dp
[15:51] {dino} cya
[15:52] {Threei}  SPY new low
[15:52] {dino} gs stop
[15:52] {Threei}  and FCX follows
[15:54] {dino} wow ndx -2.6% today
[15:54] {Threei}  yeah
[15:59] {dino} out cern -.02
[16:00] {_jackharry} gn all
[16:00] {Threei}  thank you all
[16:00] {Threei}  have a good evening, see you tomorrow