Friday, June 22, 2012

June 22 2012

Decent end to the week, ending it with 4 winning days out of 5. Slow climb mode kept us in coma for a while but good plays still appeared now and then.

Session Time: Fri Jun 22 00:00:00 2012
[09:01] {Threei}  yawn
[09:01] {nemo} cover your mouth
[09:02] {nemo} Google: Helping drinking buddies determine who is right and wrong since 1997.
[09:06] {scottie} gm
[09:06] {Threei}  scottie :)
[09:11] {nemo} well, so much for the bank downgrades
[09:12] {Threei}  that was yesterday
[09:12] {Threei}  $3 drop SPY is not enough for ya?
[09:13] {Threei}  I mean bloodthirsty is good but there should be a limit, no? :)
[09:14] {nemo} ANARCHY!!!
[09:14] {nemo} we're at weekly pivot on spy
[09:17] {nemo} my, that was precise
[09:20] {Threei}  Due to the current financial crisis facing the world at the moment, the light at the end of the tunnel will be switched off to save on electricity costs, until further notice.
[09:20] {dptl} gm
[09:20] {Threei}  dp :)
[09:20] {Beau} good morning you all
[09:20] {Threei}  beau :)
[09:20] {Threei}  Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia sees no need to explain its Syrian arms deliveries to the US
[09:20] {Threei}  how's that reset going
[09:26] {ese} gm
[09:26] {Threei}  ese :)
[09:30] {Threei} Short Setup: FCX  .30 break
[09:30] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
[09:31] {Threei}  target .15
[09:32] {Threei}  half out .22
[09:32] {Threei}  stop to .31
[09:32] {Threei}  out
[09:32] {scottie} +.10 ty
[09:32] {Threei}  :)
[09:32] {Threei}  how often do you get FCX at the open with 6 cents stop
[09:34] {Threei} Long Setup:  MS  .15 break
[09:34] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[09:35] {Threei}  target .25 - .30
[09:36] {nemo} ok spy retesting wpp here, looking for short
[09:36] {nemo} ms bid
[09:37] {Threei}  market weakens
[09:38] {Threei}  no go
[09:38] {thomcbell} looking for a long entry in bbby
[09:38] {Threei} Long Setup:  FCX  .05 break
[09:38] {thomcbell} way too wide an initial range 
[09:39] {Threei}  .95 stop
[09:39] {nemo} resistance .10
[09:40] {Threei}  not liking iut
[09:40] {Threei}  quite sudden selling
[09:40] {Threei}  disproportional too
[09:42] {nemo} bounce time
[09:42] {nemo} if it doesn't here we test the Weekly pivot on IWM
[09:43] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .50 break
[09:45] {Threei}  If holds  .40,  target 1:3
[09:45] {nemo} iwm respecting downtrend resistance
[09:46] {ese} L R .55
[09:48] {Threei}  1:1
[09:48] {Threei}  first partial, stop to .48
[09:48] {nemo} yeah, getting to major support in spy and iwm
[09:49] {nemo} l tna .76
[09:49] {nemo} yeah baby
[09:49] {nemo} half .90
[09:49] {Threei}  scalpers win
[09:49] {nemo} stop .89
[09:50] {nemo} 1/4 more .15
[09:50] {Threei}  (ES) Spain is said to be considering imposing losses on junior bank bondholders - financial press
[09:50] {Threei}  we've seen this movie already
[09:50] {scottie} +.10 on FAZ ty
[09:50] {nemo} yeah, like it'll happen
[09:50] {nemo} stop to .99
[09:51] {Threei}  **Note that earlier this morning, Spain Econ Ministry reiterated that the govt is not planning to liquidate banks, not planning haircuts for bondholders.
[09:51] {Threei}  - Follow up: 09:50ET: Spain economy minister denies that there is any such plan to impose losses on junior bank bondholders.
[09:52] {Threei}  (GR) Greece Finance Minister Rapanos is said to have been hospitalized after a "fainting spell" - Greece press ***Note that earlier today, Greece PM Samaras was hospitalized due to a retinal detachment.
[09:52] {nemo} ow...last quarter out
[09:52] {nemo}'s holding my earlier stop,wtf
[09:56] {ese} R stopped .10 -.45 sm
[09:57] {scottie} FB break of 33 ? looks good on daily
[09:58] {nemo} yeah, if you can trust a month and a half daily
[09:58] {Threei}  not delighted really...
[09:59] {scottie} ok
[09:59] {Threei}  drop to .60 would desrve an entry
[09:59] {nemo} yep, again, shoulda stuck with my original stop
[10:05] {Threei} Long Setup:  CAT  .75 break hl
[10:06] {nemo} iwm approaching pivot at .22
[10:06] {Threei}  .64 stop
[10:07] {Threei}  1 cent shy of 1:1... come on
[10:07] {nemo} market
[10:07] {ese} R dino
[10:08] {Threei}  tighten to .69
[10:09] {Threei}  out
[10:13] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .50 break
[10:14] {Threei}  If holds  .40 
[10:15] {nemo} tza
[10:18] {ese} L celg .10
[10:19] {Threei}  looks 1:2-capable to me
[10:19] {Threei}  stop to .44
[10:19] {Threei}  half out
[10:20] {nemo} FB
[10:20] {nemo} .55 long might be good
[10:20] {nemo} support in .40 area
[10:20] {ese} out celg .38 + .28
[10:20] {Threei}  wtg
[10:21] {nemo} .57 offer
[10:21] {ese} tks
[10:22] {nemo} 1/2 .65
[10:23] {ese} I want back in R 
[10:23] {Threei}  {R} I have good emories too, ese...
[10:24] {nemo} stop to break even
[10:25] {nemo} mhhhh, FB maintaining downtrend
[10:26] {ese} it tanked this morning on the imfamous downgrade of strong buy to outperform price target anywhere from 45/ 70....bit of an overreaction i'd say today
[10:26] {ese} just a question of when it's heading up
[10:29] {nemo} fb holding well in this drop
[10:29] {Threei}  stop to .49
[10:29] {nemo} 1/4 more .74...just in case ;-)
[10:30] {nemo} iwm spy longs shaping up
[10:33] {thomcbell} kind of a long setup here on bbby 61.21 break if holding 61.05
[10:33] {thomcbell} market makes me tentative 
[10:34] {Threei}  chart's right
[10:35] {ese} nemo...question....whats the draw with iwm...what are you liking about it?
[10:37] {nemo} retracement level, and indicator divergence, as you can see .20 trigger to .40, I think it's going to be buy support sell resistance kinda' day
[10:37] {Threei}  also, they drunk together once
[10:38] {nemo} ese, you could have also played spy, because it had the same setup
[10:42] {Threei}  BBBY works nicely
[10:42] {Threei}  it's pretty much market-independent
[10:42] {Threei}  as stocks with fresh news often are
[10:42] {dino} out bbby .50, +.29. ty tbell for idea
[10:43] {Threei}  nice play
[10:43] {dino} 07 red fwiw
[10:43] {Threei}  OK, time for the next trail TZA, .53
[10:44] {Threei}  trying not to overtighten it this time
[10:49] {thomcbell} thanks 
[10:50] {Threei}  out
[10:50] {thomcbell} i had to step off as is often the case - made sales at 1:2 for 3/4 of it 
[10:50] {thomcbell} lvs horrible action
[10:52] {ese} tks just watching the way it trades....spreads beta...some stuff like that......just wondering what you saw in it
[10:54] {nemo} I track iwm and spy side by side
[10:56] {nemo} I have two charts, my side by side and a 15 minute panel view with all the levels for IWM SPY FAS, and I'll be plotting TLT
[10:56] {ese} ahhh  was just gonna ask that......i watch spy they diverge you find one of them better than the other in certain situations
[10:57] {nemo} It's the relationship between the two...there is an interplay because IWM is the risky wild child and SPY the parent, then I look at the financials and of course bonds, because of there natural interellationships
[10:58] {ese} hmmmmmm....i don't really watch bonds but maybe i should......
[10:58] {nemo} Now, if you look at where iwm just bottomed, it was simple support from the breakout at 10:03, but spy was the loss, and immediate recapture of teh 127.2 retrace of the previous morning low
[10:59] {nemo} as well, all indicators I follow were in divergence at that point
[10:59] {Threei}  can you imagine what he would be like if he didn't vage the permanent war on brain cells, heavily armed with hard liquor?
[10:59] {Threei}  wage
[10:59] {dino} ese i just watch tlt for bonds
[11:00] {nemo} actually, it was my extended organic experiments in my early years
[11:00] {Threei}  lol
[11:00] {nemo} and a lifetime of getting hit in the head
[11:00] {ese} ya .......i've got tlt in a watch list but i haven't paid much attention to it.....
[11:00] {nemo} kinda' why I got out of that business
[11:00] {dino} after awhile it starts to hurt
[11:01] {Threei}  (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: 10 countries now support the financial transactions tax; conditions are in place for enhanced cooperation- Reminder: earlier the Spain Fin Min commented that nine euro zone nations support the financial transaction tax (Tobin Tax).
[11:01] {nemo} you don't heal as fast anymore
[11:01] {Threei}  what's with these tax-happy imbeciles
[11:01] {dino} they are slowly destroying financial markets in europe
[11:01] {nemo} You know a government that saw a tax it didn't like
[11:02] {Threei}  actually, let them
[11:02] {nemo} They don't realize they are going to increase the spreads dramatically
[11:02] {dino} they are going to lose the markets. it will go west to british, usa, canada
[11:03] {Threei}  when their money shurg and move to NA, it will be fair
[11:03] {Threei}  you wanted it, you got it
[11:03] {nemo} well, demand for the FTT will come here when Europe pushes it
[11:04] {Threei}  I doubt it
[11:04] {Threei}  you'd have to have democrats holding absolute majority in all goverfning bodies for this to have even slightest chance to pass
[11:04] {Threei}  and I don't see this happening
[11:05] {Threei}  not even speaking of Canada which won't go for it
[11:05] {Threei}  not under current government anyway
[11:05] {nemo} it's very close, I think this election is going to be a big surprise
[11:05] {Threei}  btw, isn't it ironic that FTT also stands for Failure to thrive (medical term)
[11:08] {nemo}
[11:11] {nemo} breakout shaping up
[11:12] {scottie} wag 30 stop .90 ?
[11:12] {Threei}  watching TZA for double bottom
[11:12] {Threei}  WAG yes, nie chart
[11:12] {Threei}  nice
[11:13] {Threei}  TZA, if drops under .40, holds .35, then crosses back
[11:13] {nemo} .01 resistance
[11:15] {nemo} .10 resistance sorry
[11:17] {Threei}  Daily Tracking: #Romney: 48%, #Obama: 43%
[11:17] {dino} stc celg 60 calls .36, +.51
[11:17] {Threei}  quite sustained lead... although I bet Romney wished election would ocuur the next morning after infamous Obama's "private sector is doing fine"
[11:18] {Threei} Long Setup:  TZA  .40 break
[11:18] {Threei}  If holds  .35 
[11:20] {Raven} Rasmussen poll this AM: R=48% O=43%
[11:20] {nemo} Obama will win
[11:20] {Raven} lol ... no doubt
[11:22] {dino} starting to think romney pulls it off
[11:25] {Raven} with over 50% of the population on the dole and 75% of the kids cannot read or do math ... you have to wonder if that is possible
[11:26] {dino} of the 50% figure only 25% of that votes. as fpr kids, college students are not happy w/obama, no jobs
[11:27] {Threei}  half out
[11:28] {Raven} one can hope
[11:29] {dino} look at it this way, too lazy to work, too lazy to vote
[11:29] {Raven} I want to believe that
[11:29] {Threei}  I think this election is Obama's to lose...
[11:30] {Raven} he's been doing just swell at that lately
[11:30] {Threei}  all Romney needs and can do is to look presidential, not to offer any 10K bets and pick good VP
[11:32] {Threei}  stop .39
[11:32] {Raven} he needs to put forth some understandable plans to fix some obvious problems as well
[11:32] {Raven} otherwise just another empty suit
[11:37] {Beau} his wife is potential negative
[11:43] {ese} L RIO falling asleep......almost didn't post
[11:50] {scottie} wag long .02
[11:56] {nemo} bonds reached support
[11:56] {thomcbell} these very long term patterns on the miners are enormous head and shoulders patterns which if broken has fcx bankrupt and bhp down 65 - 70% from neckline breaks
[11:56] {scottie} stopped wag -.07
[12:00] {Threei} Long Setup:  GDX  .35 break
[12:00] {Threei}  If holds  .30 
[12:03] {thomcbell} qcom long setup 55.40 break if holding 55.30 
[12:04] {thomcbell} target 1:2
[12:04] {thomcbell} using a half lot 
[12:06] {scottie} +.10 ty
[12:06] {Threei}  :)
[12:07] {dino} out gdx .50, +.14 ty vad
[12:08] {Threei}  yw
[12:08] {thomcbell} qcom now invalid
[12:10] {ese} am signing off....snooper vising an exam this morning have great weekend cya monday
[12:12] {Threei}  take care ese
[12:17] {dino} calling it a day too, thx all
[12:17] {scottie} bye dino
[12:17] {Threei}  take care dino
[12:25] {nemo} might get iwm bounce here
[12:27] {nemo} there ya go
[12:29] {Threei}  good read
[12:29] {nemo} just a little one though, frankly looks, at the moment like we'll be heading down, only question is if the Weekly Pivot in SPY is where they want to end up, that's at .12
[12:30] {nemo} IWM daily pivot is .22
[12:32] {thomcbell} meanwhile bbby could have a nice up move if it can hold 61.50 for more than 30 seconds
[12:32] {thomcbell} basing on 5 minute 
[12:40] {nemo} bounce territory again, but for some reason I am more circumspect
[12:41] {nemo} o.k. so I was right...
[12:43] {thomcbell} im long bbby very small - will add if it can hold 61.50 for a few minutes 
[12:47] {Threei}  EU court rules that workers who get sick during vacation time can get more vacation time
[12:47] {Threei}  I've got one prediction to make... vacation times are going to double from now on
[12:50] {nemo} o.k. on 15 min charts spy and IWM we may have  C&H's forming
[12:58] {thomcbell} no go bbby
[13:24] {nemo} yeah, sick time isn't vacation time
[13:36] {nemo} cup and handles breaking
[13:36] {Threei}  yes... and looks like climb to the eod
[13:36] {Threei}  or stall
[13:37] {Threei}  but drop is not very likely
[13:37] {Threei}  (pains me to say)
[13:38] {nemo} one would think spy needs to test today's high with a possible target to 133.52, today
[13:38] {nemo} pivot
[13:39] {Beau} gotta run. good weekend everybody
[13:39] {Threei}  take care beau
[13:51] {Threei}  (GR) Greece official notes that the country wants to extend the timeline for the bailout to at least 2016- This is in line with reports earlier in the week that said the new PM Samaras was preparing to ask for a two year extension to 2016 for meeting fiscal consolidation targets set by the bailout agreement.
[13:51] {Threei}  which presents a problem: if answer is no, country revolts; if answer is yes, they'll need a third bailout
[14:02] {nemo} stupid me...should have just held tna, got it .03 off the bottom
[14:15] {nemo} now IWM is starting to look like a top
[14:43] {Threei}  hmmm
[14:43] {Threei}  so far, exactly the type of market that keeps me in come, but we may get some selling soon
[14:45] {Threei}  come = coma
[14:46] {Threei}  watching FAZ
[14:55] {Threei} Long Setup:  FAZ  .15 break
[14:55] {Threei}  If holds  .10 
[14:57] {Threei}  trying to play double top in SPY in case it can't break .50
[14:57] {Threei}  if it does, FAZ should invalidate
[15:01] {Threei}  still valid IMO
[15:02] {Threei}  stop .08
[15:04] {Threei}  target .30 or so in two partials
[15:04] {Threei}  first is out .23
[15:04] {Threei}  stop to .13
[15:08] {nemo} spy topped out right at the pivot
[15:10] {Threei}  isn't it amazing when my admittedly oversimplkistic view on things coincides to the T with these indicators?
[15:13] {nemo} next target are the monthly pivot points.  We regain those, negates the bears
[15:13] {scottie} average +.05 ty Vad
[15:14] {Threei}  still scalping time eh
[15:14] {scottie} obviously too soon
[15:14] {Threei}  but I really wanted to give it a chance, in case it was real reversal
[15:14] {Threei}  a lot of air under this climb
[15:15] {Threei}  if it hits airpocket, drop can be good
[15:15] {Threei}  meanwhile, smokers just won't contribute to society:
[15:15] {Threei}  California legislation to implement $1/pack tax increase has failed to pass in a vote
[15:34] {nemo} mmmhhh...financials not keeping pace
[15:34] {nemo} think that might be the high for the day
[15:38] {Threei}  feels so
[15:38] {scottie} VXX db? looks good on 5 min.
[15:39] {Threei}  wouldn't be my first choice...
[15:39] {scottie} ok
[15:39] {nemo} hate that thing
[15:39] {scottie} ?
[15:39] {nemo} VXX
[15:40] {Threei}  yeah, it's a nasty trader
[15:40] {nemo} psycho woman
[15:40] {Threei}  also, look how it tests its day low while SPY is ways off its high
[15:40] {nemo} mmmhhh...looks like I might stand corrected on iwm
[15:41] {nemo} got that russell rebalancing today too
[15:42] {nemo} with us likely finishing at the top of the range, we'll likely open above the monthly pivots on Monday
[15:48] {nemo} spy went from .53 to .63 with IWM only moving .03 
[15:49] {nemo} spy needs to get to about .92 to close flat on the week
[15:56] {dptl} gn all have a good weekend
[15:57] {Threei}  thank you all
[15:57] {Threei}  have a great weekend, see you on Monday
[15:57] {scottie} have a good weekend everyone, thanks Vad